What happens when brilliant developers try to predict complex human behavior? Usually, they get it wrong.
I read Jimmy Song’s essay "On Overconfidence" today, and it prompted some heavy reflection. It’s easy to get caught up in our own projections, but history shows that complex systems rarely behave the way we expect.
I break down my perspective on the episode.
Listen to Read_947 - On Overconfidence by jimmysong (nprofile…2q9y) on Bitcoin Audible with TheGuySwann (npub1h8n…rpev) , available on all major platforms:
🔗 Fountain: https://fountain.fm/episode/QOdAoEwtewccCimXfqJ0
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2026-07-01 20:19:32 CEST
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npub1hw4zdmnygyvyypgztfxn8aqqmenxtwdf3tuwrd44stjjeckpc37q6zlg0qPublished at
2026-07-01 20:19:32 CESTEvent JSON
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"content": "What happens when brilliant developers try to predict complex human behavior? Usually, they get it wrong.\n\nI read Jimmy Song’s essay \"On Overconfidence\" today, and it prompted some heavy reflection. It’s easy to get caught up in our own projections, but history shows that complex systems rarely behave the way we expect.\n\nI break down my perspective on the episode.\n\nListen to Read_947 - On Overconfidence by nostr:nprofile1qqs8k0mcqd6sw3h524qn5gslszt9am9knmes3uh268dgnnpv3yfwj6qpz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduhsz9thwden5te0dehhxarj9ehhsarj9ejx2a30np2q9y on Bitcoin Audible with nostr:npub1h8nk2346qezka5cpm8jjh3yl5j88pf4ly2ptu7s6uu55wcfqy0wq36rpev , available on all major platforms:\n\n🔗 Fountain: https://fountain.fm/episode/QOdAoEwtewccCimXfqJ0",
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