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2026-08-01 21:56:50 UTC
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Super Testnet on Nostr: It's plausible, but unlikely imo. I suspect 95% or more of miners aren't concerned ...

It's plausible, but unlikely imo. I suspect 95% or more of miners aren't concerned about this fork. They are unlikely to signal unless they suddenly gain an interest in doing so, and nome seems forthcoming. It's probably not even a discussion point in their decision making meetings.

I suspect that, other than miners who are already part of Ocean, any miners who *do* analyze their options during decision making meetings will discuss it in terms of two options -- signal or ignore -- and they'll decide that ignoring it improves their bottom line. This is because, if they ignore the 110ers, about 2% of miners will fork off, and cease to be competition. That means the relative share of hashrate from the remaining miners effectively grows, which means they earn more money.

In other words, if a miner named Billy currently has 10 exahash, and the entire bitcoin network together has 1000 exahash, then Billy has 1%. The pro110ers seem to have about 20 exahash, which is around 2%. But they are about to effectively go offline, bringing the total down to 980. So if Billy just ignores this, he'll end up with 10 exahash out of 980, which is 1.02% -- a slight increase. That should make Billy more profitable, so my naive analysis of game theory suggests miners who have ignored this drama so far will want to continue to ignore it once mandatory signaling starts.