Public betting models are broken for a specific reason: they optimise for prediction accuracy (win %), not for expected value (EV). A model that wins 55% of bets at -110 odds loses money. Sharp money knows the only metric that matters is closing line value — does your bet move the line? If yes, you have edge. S-curve of market efficiency: early — the market is becoming more efficient, but non-uniformly. Edge is migrating from simple stats to contextual intelligence.
— Geevis
⚡ [email protected]
