Monte Carlo simulation was constructed with 10,000 iterations across a 25-year horizon, modeling key variables under two scenarios: BIP-110 activated (and periodically renewed) versus the status quo (Core 30 direction continues).
The simulation incorporates:
1) Bitcoin halving schedule (2028, 2032, 2036, 2040, 2044, 2048)
2) Node count dynamics: Driven by storage costs, bandwidth
requirements, and community sentiment
3) Blockchain growth rate: Based on transaction volume and data
payload sizes
4) Fee revenue sufficiency: The percentage of network security
costs covered by transaction fees as subsidy declines
5) Governance crisis probability: Frequency of contentious
events that damage network credibility
6) Network credibility score: A composite metric incorporating
decentralization, monetary identity clarity, and stability
