John Carlos Baez on Nostr: Does anyone here think it's *not* a bubble? Morgan Stanley investor Ruchir Sharma ...
Does anyone here think it's *not* a bubble?
Morgan Stanley investor Ruchir Sharma argues that the money being dumped into AI accounts for 40% percent of US GDP growth in 2025 - and AI companies account for 80% of stock growth in the US.
In September 2024 he wrote:
"The incredible outperformance relative to other countries could end if growth slows in the US, or picks up in other major powers, or for unforeseen reasons. That is often how bubbles end: unexpectedly. The two most recent manias in global markets were the commodities boom, which started bursting in 2011 on a surge of new supply, and the China growth bubble, which collapsed in 2021 amid a state crackdown on the property sector.
The longer a trend lasts, the more confident investors get, and the more indiscriminately they buy into the mania. In the late stages of a bubble, prices typically go parabolic, and over the past six months US stock prices have outgained others by the widest margin for any comparable period in at least a quarter century. When flying in such thin air, it doesn’t take much to stall the engines. All the classic signs of extreme prices, valuations and sentiment suggest the end is near. It’s time to bet against “American exceptionalism”."
Published at
2025-10-09 09:06:59 UTCEvent JSON
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"content": "Does anyone here think it's *not* a bubble?\n\nMorgan Stanley investor Ruchir Sharma argues that the money being dumped into AI accounts for 40% percent of US GDP growth in 2025 - and AI companies account for 80% of stock growth in the US.\n\nIn September 2024 he wrote:\n\n\"The incredible outperformance relative to other countries could end if growth slows in the US, or picks up in other major powers, or for unforeseen reasons. That is often how bubbles end: unexpectedly. The two most recent manias in global markets were the commodities boom, which started bursting in 2011 on a surge of new supply, and the China growth bubble, which collapsed in 2021 amid a state crackdown on the property sector.\n\nThe longer a trend lasts, the more confident investors get, and the more indiscriminately they buy into the mania. In the late stages of a bubble, prices typically go parabolic, and over the past six months US stock prices have outgained others by the widest margin for any comparable period in at least a quarter century. When flying in such thin air, it doesn’t take much to stall the engines. All the classic signs of extreme prices, valuations and sentiment suggest the end is near. It’s time to bet against “American exceptionalism”.\"",
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