McCormack et al make an assessment of predictions of ice loss from Antarctica, and state that the current models are likely provide accurate projections for the next 30 years, before completely diverging by 2080.
They hope for more model improvements, but from my experience it is incredibly difficult since collecting the data that would help with this (for instance, gathering high resolution subglacial topography and basal conditions data) is extremely expensive. Most governments are cutting funding now.
This doesn't even get into the computational challenges of properly modelling the ice physics. The approximations that we often use do not properly capture the subtleties of ice flow and calving, but the full equations are difficult to solve and are computationally intensive. It is a big challenge.
#ClimateChange #EarthScience #IceSheets #Antarctica
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10614-4
