DugandRupe on Nostr: Looking into the summer doldrums last year and while it didn’t help me trade to ...
Looking into the summer doldrums last year and while it didn’t help me trade to perfection (such a bad trader), it was at least interesting and beat the boredom of the fiat mine during the summer months.
First realisation was that the post post halving summer was the bear market, 2014, 2018, 2022 and 2026, so looking at the pattern of the summer, normalising for the price on the 1st of June was helpful. Better than 2022 with the 3 arrows fall out, and relatively similar to 2018 and a little worse than 2014. But I often hear that the bear is made by the preceding bull, and given the bull was not a strong as we’d hoped, maybe the bear will be more muted. So let’s look at the summer price action of the bear markets are portion of all time highs…..
2026 matches weirdly close to 2014, which given 2015 was the only year where sentiment was worse than today, this can’t be a good sign, was 2014 even considered the bear market? It just a pre bear for the years of carnage to follow? Worrying this graph shows which ever graph we look at, we have a whole month of August with limited liquidity, ready for another “bear whale” to rear its head and truly find a new bottom (that would not be until October, if it was to mirror 2014), that people are so keen (including myself) to say we’ve made or even made in February. The bottom will be found only once sellers have truly been exhausted.
Sell in May and go away could be a thing, but while there is so much bad sentiment, there are likely a good few entities that feel they can get a better entry. I for one won’t play into the hands of tax authorities to get hold of my capital gains I could make while opening the kimono of my stack and will also move out of MSTR, because if bitcoin gets hit, that will just crater (already at my entry point after 5 years). Even if there is a 2019 summer bull trap, happy to play this one out and get back into MSTR locked fiat speculation in September, with my cold storage still out of the light of the Eye of Sauron.
Published at
2026-07-14 15:58:39 CESTEvent JSON
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"content": "Looking into the summer doldrums last year and while it didn’t help me trade to perfection (such a bad trader), it was at least interesting and beat the boredom of the fiat mine during the summer months.\n\nFirst realisation was that the post post halving summer was the bear market, 2014, 2018, 2022 and 2026, so looking at the pattern of the summer, normalising for the price on the 1st of June was helpful. Better than 2022 with the 3 arrows fall out, and relatively similar to 2018 and a little worse than 2014. But I often hear that the bear is made by the preceding bull, and given the bull was not a strong as we’d hoped, maybe the bear will be more muted. So let’s look at the summer price action of the bear markets are portion of all time highs…..\n\n2026 matches weirdly close to 2014, which given 2015 was the only year where sentiment was worse than today, this can’t be a good sign, was 2014 even considered the bear market? It just a pre bear for the years of carnage to follow? Worrying this graph shows which ever graph we look at, we have a whole month of August with limited liquidity, ready for another “bear whale” to rear its head and truly find a new bottom (that would not be until October, if it was to mirror 2014), that people are so keen (including myself) to say we’ve made or even made in February. The bottom will be found only once sellers have truly been exhausted.\n\nSell in May and go away could be a thing, but while there is so much bad sentiment, there are likely a good few entities that feel they can get a better entry. I for one won’t play into the hands of tax authorities to get hold of my capital gains I could make while opening the kimono of my stack and will also move out of MSTR, because if bitcoin gets hit, that will just crater (already at my entry point after 5 years). Even if there is a 2019 summer bull trap, happy to play this one out and get back into MSTR locked fiat speculation in September, with my cold storage still out of the light of the Eye of Sauron.\nhttps://blossom.primal.net/fae2e8a9e4aaa856804509e6bd062ad9608d49cdbde78fcbe64e4cf207ffd6b0.png\nhttps://blossom.primal.net/3dff68ca7e619d3553850979c7df3daad038be7c0a35065592f8874c7a8f634e.png",
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