That's been my thesis for a while now…in fact it's not hyperbole to state that if trends continue the way they have the Fediverse will eclipse the ATmosphere at some point (because the former is holding steady while the latter is shrinking).
I'm not ready to say Bluesky is cooked, but…it's not looking great.
https://theinternet.review/2026/05/10/another-bluesky-vibe-check/
