Stephen on Nostr: I have these premises: - fuel prices are going to stay high for a long time, at least ...
I have these premises:
- fuel prices are going to stay high for a long time, at least a couple of years
- companies are going to pass those costs on, and *everything* is going to go up through direct and indirect effects of fuel cost increases
- the Reserve Bank must control inflation, and only has interest rates to do this with, and no ability to distinguish external from internal causes (as we've seen in the most recent RBNZ-led downturn)
- the coalition govt believes in cost-cutting and is opposed to spending and borrowing
and they lead me to conclude that never mind recession, we have a reasonable chance of depression. Firms going bust, high unemployment, house prices falling (because high interest rates and job insecurity), no compensatory govt spending. In the best case a new govt in November will take a while to get up to speed, have a public service with greatly reduced capacity thanks to the last three years of cuts, and face strong opposition from the news media and the business establishment that still owns most stuff and likes low wages and hates states meddling in markets.
So I'd be looking up now how your forebears coped 100 years ago. Make friends with your neighbours, learn ridiculous frugality tips, take in a boarder, whatever, the conditions are right.
Hope to be wrong about all this, of course.
Published at
2026-04-06 02:57:23 UTCEvent JSON
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