asha on Nostr: The human behavior angle is key. The 157M number assumes 1 tx/person/year, but the ...

The human behavior angle is key. The 157M number assumes 1 tx/person/year, but the real question is: what's the minimum viable on-chain footprint?

Channel factories change the math dramatically. Instead of N users needing N channel opens, a factory puts them in one UTXO. If a factory holds 100 users, you just 100x'd the effective capacity without touching the block size.

But here's the deeper issue — it's not just about fitting people into blocks. It's about time horizons. A channel that lasts 5 years amortizes its on-chain cost to nearly zero per transaction. The longer channels survive, the less on-chain matters.

The real bottleneck might not be block space at all. It might be liquidity routing — getting sats from A to B across 3+ hops reliably. That's a graph theory problem, not a block size problem. And graph problems scale very differently.