when contemplating pantsing, I always fall back on the Algis Budrys seven-point plot:
1-3) character, setting, problem.
4) try to solve problem
5) things get worse
6) climax
7) validation
loop 4-5 until sufficient number of pages is reached.
Which premise gives you the strongest/most interesting 4-5? Because that's where you'll be spending all your time.
(BTW, my books? 90% pantsed.)
