Sjors on Nostr: I'll be impressed if a single miner produces a block that's guaranteed to be orphaned ...

I'll be impressed if a single miner produces a block that's guaranteed to be orphaned by normal nodes, except by accident* while attempting to virtue signal.

* = e.g. running Knots initially to just signal support, forgetting to switch back to Core once signaling is mandatory. Not everyone understands that the consequence of mandatory signaling is that your node won't see the most proof-of-work tip.

quoting
nevent1q…lf27

Knots is right on track to cause a minority chain split. Weeks before mandatory signalling BIP110 runners claim still to be determined to keep running BIP110. If August 7th comes and less than 50% of miners signal BIP110, you get a chain split.

I see how mandatory signalling can make a soft fork a success even if only a minority cares but with a minority less than lets say 20% this doesn't work. Nobody knows how big that minority group needs to be but I'm confident claiming that 0.3% is not enough and I would be shocked if 10% were enough.