Jason Jiang, 37, a former banker, runs the 28wishes shop in downtown Los Angeles with his brother James.
His observation is simple: as soon as the temperature drops below 21 °C, the shop loses about 20% of its revenue.
Since April 2026, the two brothers have been betting $20 a day on Kalshi, a platform where users bet on real-world events—in this case, cold spells in Southern California.
The logic? When the weather causes sales to drop, the bet makes up for it.
Results: up to $1,500 in winnings per month, with peaks of $800 in a single day.
Compared to the store’s $3,500 monthly rent, this covers nearly 43% of the monthly payment. These figures are unaudited; they were provided by the store owner himself.
A betting platform is being used as an insurance tool by a business owner, without any regulatory framework specifically designed for this purpose.
For decades, farmers have used CME weather futures (Weather Derivatives, launched in 1999) to hedge against frost or drought. Here, an ice cream shop is doing the same thing using a consumer-facing app.
(I advise everyone to stay away from gambling and betting)
