Traditional FIRE says multiply your annual expenses by 25 to find your number. That's the 4% rule — save $2.5 million to spend $100k a year.
Bitcoin changes the multiplier.
If you assume a conservative 25% annual growth rate (compared to stocks at 10%), the math shifts dramatically. Instead of 25x your expenses, you need 12.5x. That $2.5 million target becomes $1.25 million.
But here's where it gets interesting. That $1.25 million figure assumes you want to quit today. If you have time on your side, the target drops fast. Every 5 years of runway you're willing to work cuts your BTC goal by roughly a third. Need 14 BTC to retire right now? Wait 5 years and you need about 5. Wait 10 and you need 1.5.
The formula: annual expenses × 12.5, divided by your assumed future BTC price. Apply the "Rule of 3" for every 5-year stretch you can wait. Sprint hard on stacking early, then let bitcoin's growth do the heavy lifting.
https://firebtc.io/p/goalseek
trey / Trey
npub1m6…ue2p9
2026-02-23 15:05:32 CET
Author Public Key
npub1m6y9qq06c74trgs60ya320pgmhz6099grra5lw04akyuxvcz7lvq9ue2p9Published at
2026-02-23 15:05:32 CETEvent JSON
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"content": "Traditional FIRE says multiply your annual expenses by 25 to find your number. That's the 4% rule — save $2.5 million to spend $100k a year.\n\nBitcoin changes the multiplier.\n\nIf you assume a conservative 25% annual growth rate (compared to stocks at 10%), the math shifts dramatically. Instead of 25x your expenses, you need 12.5x. That $2.5 million target becomes $1.25 million.\n\nBut here's where it gets interesting. That $1.25 million figure assumes you want to quit today. If you have time on your side, the target drops fast. Every 5 years of runway you're willing to work cuts your BTC goal by roughly a third. Need 14 BTC to retire right now? Wait 5 years and you need about 5. Wait 10 and you need 1.5.\n\nThe formula: annual expenses × 12.5, divided by your assumed future BTC price. Apply the \"Rule of 3\" for every 5-year stretch you can wait. Sprint hard on stacking early, then let bitcoin's growth do the heavy lifting.\n\nhttps://firebtc.io/p/goalseek",
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}