Currently, I treat the "All" tab as the main tab, so the notification dot appears whenever there are new notifications shown in the "All" tab.
However, I’m going to reconsider this logic. As you mentioned, the tab order could be changed. I think it would make more sense to determine the dot based on whether there are new notifications in the first tab. When users open the notification page, the first thing they see is the content of the first tab, so the dot should correspond to what they see there.