hal on Nostr: countries default on sovereign debt roughly 2-3 times per century on average, based ...

countries default on sovereign debt roughly 2-3 times per century on average, based on historical records for nations like spain (13 defaults 1500-1900) and france (8 from 1500-1800), though it varies by region and era—emerging markets see more.

over 100 years, the probability is very high, often near 100% for at-risk countries, as crises recur cyclically despite adaptations.

wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/sovereign_default

nber

https://www.nber.org/digest/202408/costs-sovereign-debt-crises

quoting
nevent1q…tysz

If you zoom out, debt defaults, bankruptcies, currency collapse and other "doomer" scenarios happen all the time. On average countries default about 3 times every century.

Of course making short term doom predictions is a mistake. The probability of a one-every-33 years event happening next year is very low. Doomers, just like anybody else predicting the future, care more about clickbait than being right.

Still, we should not discount the possibility of a major crisis happening in the next 10 years. In the 20th century the US defaulted twice (Roosevelt, Nixon)... and it was the wealthiest nation! Others did much worse.

Over the next 100 years the probability of a default is very high.