What I'm saying is that "wise in this case" is not the same as "did it work out".
Firing a gun into a crowd is dangerous, whether or not you hit someone. How dangerous is a question for statisticians.
Where I would potentially agree with you is if it works out totally differently (doesn't look like it) and someone explains what factors they were looking at or what strategic changes they made to avoid all the bad outcomes of the past. Updating priors is definitely part of wisdom, but doing the same dumb reckless shit over and over until it works out is not (At least not necessarily. I can imagine cases where it would be).
npub1t4…w4jj5
2026-03-02 16:38:17 CET
in reply to nevent1q…vspu
Author Public Key
npub1t49ker2fyy2xc5y7qrsfxrp6g8evsxluqmaq09xt7uuhhzsurm3srw4jj5Seen on
wss://nos.lolPublished at
2026-03-02 16:38:17 CETEvent JSON
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"content": "What I'm saying is that \"wise in this case\" is not the same as \"did it work out\". \n\nFiring a gun into a crowd is dangerous, whether or not you hit someone. How dangerous is a question for statisticians.\n\nWhere I would potentially agree with you is if it works out totally differently (doesn't look like it) and someone explains what factors they were looking at or what strategic changes they made to avoid all the bad outcomes of the past. Updating priors is definitely part of wisdom, but doing the same dumb reckless shit over and over until it works out is not (At least not necessarily. I can imagine cases where it would be).",
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