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2026-05-15 17:25:10 UTC

Chris Trottier on Nostr: The stock market isn't just driven by sentiment but also constantly duelling fear and ...

The stock market isn't just driven by sentiment but also constantly duelling fear and greed narratives—much of which is disconnected from actual balance sheets.

Most of the time, neither fear nor greed are justified. And such narratives are, often enough, grifts.

If you listen to certain people, we are all doomed. Capitalism is going to collapse tomorrow. Hope you bought a bomb shelter and imperishable goods.

Then you have others who say we're on the precipice of a golden age, a wonder tech has been unlocked that will solve all our problems, everyone will be drinking out of diamond goblets.

It is silly to guess how far greed or fear will go. But if you act on triggers when either sentiment moves into extreme zones, things will likely turn out well.
Sure, the market is driven primarily by two things: fundamentals and sentiment. Sentiment is what powers cycles.

A month ago, there was a lot of fear. But that fear too extreme, which resulted in stocks being oversold.

When a ceasefire with the Iran War was announced, this provided the rationale to buy stock once again. Since stock growth had been suppressed since October 2025, this was the catalyst for greed.

Now that stock valuations have grown so much, people are looking to cash out and will seize on *any* news as justification.

Today's fear is inflation. But this isn't enough fear to bring us into the next fear cycle.