Jenny Chase

Solar analyst with BloombergNEF, goose keeper. Author, "Solar Power Finance Without the Jargon". All opinions my own. She/her.

Book (edition 2) available through all major booksellers, or directly from my publisher on https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/Q0437

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Last Notes

2026-08-12 08:33:43 CEST

You're Going to Need a Bigger Boat.
(Kudos to my wind colleague Kajsa Jernetz for this entirely serious piece of analysis on wind turbine installation vessels worldwide).
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/117/081/131/564/602/085/original/853b10be63bdf047.jpg

2026-08-11 16:22:24 CEST

The first post I've seen describing exactly why the "cable route changed for Dobby's grave" story is fishy (it probably isn't remotely true).
https://backofmind.substack.com/p/chortle-on-a-chortle

2026-08-11 14:09:22 CEST

What's with the rash of weirdly overpositive badly sourced articles on agrivoltaics that have been coming out lately? Some farmers' union doing a massive push for subsidies?

2026-08-03 11:34:24 CEST

Unlike that of the rest of southeast Asia, Pakistan's gas demand has been falling.
Pakistan's solar boom is partly attributable to excellent do-it-yourself videos on Tiktok and youtube, and partly to two other factors, says Zainaab Basil in an interview with BNEF.
www.bnef.com/insights/40017
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/117/030/886/965/879/059/original/6b7e1f0cc986fa6d.jpg

2026-07-20 10:18:31 CEST

Seeking recommendations for podcasts about science or nature, suitable for an 8-year-old. We enjoy "Lachlabor" and "Anna und die Wilden Tiere" in German but haven't tried much in English.
(We are planning to drive the EV from Switzerland to the UK, and it's going to be a long trip.)

2026-07-08 08:09:27 CEST

Minutes of a market's peak solar output that can be stored in total battery capacity, end of 2025. Hawaii was the highest I could find, at 92 minutes, while the EU-27 aggregate is just 8 minutes.
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/116/882/861/615/798/883/original/49b8e5e5b4c7cb53.jpg

2026-07-06 17:05:23 CEST

RE: https://mastodon.energy/@drsimevans/116873303192242421
For the record, the rule of thumb we use for consumer investments is that an 8-year payback is short enough to spur substantial organic demand, not just from early adopters.
#note1dse…tutv

2026-07-01 13:06:56 CEST

I don't know who needs to hear this but the UK is not uniquely broken in terms of energy markets.
Its residential power prices are broadly in line with that of other Northern European countries. All market-based economies have gas setting the marginal power price on the spot market, but in the UK as elsewhere, utilities also buy bulk power under long term contracts, and do not pass the whole of marginal gas prices onto consumers.

2026-06-30 12:40:51 CEST

Australia (well, three states of it) mandates three free hours of electricity every day, up to 24 kWh, from tomorrow. This is a pretty good explainer.
https://lenergy.com.au/free-daytime-electricity-is-coming-heres-how-it-actually-works/

2026-06-29 10:07:41 CEST

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The progressive case for ground-mounted solar and grid-scale batteries: everyone benefits from the grid not fucking collapsing when it gets hot, not just those who can afford private solar and battery systems.

2026-06-29 09:21:32 CEST

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This is Germany - solar supply of 47GW at 2pm on that Tuesday, of grid load of 57GW. Solar was still supplying 18.8GW at 5pm. Can you imagine the situation 20 years ago when that solar contribution would have been negligible?
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/116/832/182/986/365/836/original/1fccf9946b06797d.jpg

2026-06-29 09:01:05 CEST

Feels weird that none of "the progressive case for aircon" mentions solar. If this heatwave had happened in 2010, the European grid would have buckled in the daytime! As it is, there were some issues in the evening.
The UK doesn't yet have that much solar capacity, and neither does France; but even so, imagine the power grid last week if it *hadn't* had that big solar chunk (this is France last Tuesday, during a scorcher; at 2pm, load was 57GW and solar was 19.5GW).
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jun/29/progressive-case-for-air-conditioning-climate-adaptation
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/116/832/101/965/064/577/original/bc03e7f5c1af6733.jpg

2026-06-26 12:06:21 CEST

I am glad the boss is doing this. While as analysts we try to maintain a little distance with the renewable energy industry associations, it is very important for our fractured sector to have ways to unite against the much tighter fossil fuel lobbies.
https://www.ft.com/content/5d02676c-60cb-4d11-b719-9ece20d11849?syn-25a6b1a6=1

2026-06-17 08:18:06 CEST

Wow - gas generation in California Jan-May 2026 was down 60% from its level in the same period of 2024, due to solar, batteries, imports from hydro and wind plants. This was despite a 7% increase in power demand.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67784

2026-05-29 16:08:32 CEST

Since people keep asking how much solar is benefitting from the Iran war: we just reduced our 2026 forecast to 640GW(DC) of installation, down 2% from last year.
We increased forecasts for Egypt and Malaysia, and Nigeria etc may grow. But big markets are shrinking due to saturation.
Basically solar doesn't, in most places, directly replace oil. Most Europeans, for example, would respond to the crisis much more logically by buying an electric vehicle than solar panels.
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/116/658/246/207/717/998/original/db8fc614201e8b3f.jpg

2026-05-20 12:46:00 CEST

RE: https://mastodon.green/@akshatrathi/116606047171219282
This is an amazing interview and Akshat is great at pushing back at Tice's nonsense.
(It's a very good thing I was not in Akshat's place because I would have [remembers this is a public forum and I am a professional] wished for Tice to step on a Lego.)
#note1nzh…wspw

2026-05-13 08:23:44 CEST

In a move as predictable as the sunrise, US solar manufacturers filed a trade case against Ethiopian ones.
It's not the biggest waste of human ingenuity in the world today, but can't believe how much brainpower and money is going into this US legal whack-a-mole. Manufacturers set up factories in market X to dodge tariffs -> US sets tariffs on market X -> manufacturers close, nobody really gains much except for the lawyers.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-12/us-solar-manufacturers-file-trade-dispute-against-ethiopia

2026-05-05 20:20:53 CEST

I have been at the #solarpowersummit today, being on the jury for the European Solar Startup award (winner by audience vote: ReLi Energy, which optimises large-scale battery use for longevity).
I am also quite drunk and hungry because the drinks opened at 19:30, food at 20:00, and my overnight bus left at 20:30.
But, we are not talking about climate any more, just energy security, and that's probably fine? I don't care much *why* we don't buy fossil fuel to burn.

2026-04-28 12:47:35 CEST

Not really the point of this article but I can't believe the editors let us use 'plain vanilla photovoltaics (PV)' to refer to solar without storage.
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/116/481/932/362/527/247/original/fdd0dd19fe8c26fa.jpg

2026-04-21 10:58:31 CEST

China's government tells companies "for the love of all that is good please stop making so many solar panels".
https://www.miit.gov.cn/gyhxxhb/jgsj/dzxxsnew/gzdt/art/2026/art_95dc0471cfb84266b375da36914d20a6.html

2026-04-14 10:12:48 CEST

It's easy to forget that most people don't know that power will be free (or even sometimes negatively priced) when it's very sunny.
I have also been arguing with the China team about what a power market even means.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/14/uk-households-power-renewables-soar

2026-03-12 10:40:08 CET

The reason I regularly feel compelled to defend the energy / climate progress of the UK (the country of my birth) is that the UK is actually doing pretty well. And you would not know that from the UK news! It's a British trait to believe we must be doing badly, our efforts are in vain, nothing we do will ever work - but it's not true here! All the 'green crap' is genuinely reducing the UK's demand for fossil fuels, and also its CO2 emissions!
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-emissions-fall-2-4-in-2025-as-coal-hits-400-year-low/

2026-03-09 09:37:39 CET

Struck by the last line: "Bangladesh announced plans to close all universities from Monday, bringing forward the Eid al-Fitr holidays as part of an emergency bid to conserve electricity and fuel."
I think a lot about how abundant fossil fuels have allowed us in rich countries to largely ignore the seasons, or the cost of resources. Not everyone has that luxury. (And extra holiday sounds great, but think about all the planning it throws awry).
(From https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/09/iran-war-drives-oil-price-above-100-a-barrel-for-first-time-since-2022)

2026-03-03 17:59:38 CET

RE: https://mastodon.green/@solar_chase/115405274671180986
Small victories: BNEF has changed its definition of long-duration storage to this! Thank you BNEF's LDES queen Yiyi Zhou.
#note1kgw…dhw2

2026-02-23 05:57:16 CET

RE: https://vis.social/@infobeautiful/116109430224379547
Hi, it's me, from the "BloombergNEF" cited in that chart. While directionally accurate, 2024 was not over 600GW (2025 was about 655GW but this chart is older than that). There is uncertainty around solar build data but not that much.
So it's a bad construction using incorrect data and I wish it would stop spreading around.
#note1c5r…0dce

2026-01-30 12:53:19 CET

One of my favourite things about the globalization of the English language is that my Chinese colleagues use "overseas" to mean "outside China".
"Overseas" makes sense to mean "other countries" from a Great-Britain-centric perspective! But, er, China is not an island. Most of Europe is not across a sea from China. It is an odd linguistic fossil (which, unfortunately, I feel obliged to edit out because it is also really unclear).

2026-01-21 15:34:52 CET

This is, unfortunately, very funny.
https://www.ft.com/content/ab4f0109-7735-412e-aa81-fdffc94674ed

2026-01-13 15:56:58 CET

This is very interesting about microplastics detected in medicinal trials (or, probably, not detected).
My personal crank level on microplastics-in-own-body worry is 'bought some steel tins instead of plastic ones to put hot food in'.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jan/13/microplastics-human-body-doubt

2026-01-12 14:45:14 CET

Photovoltaics fed about 16.9% of German-generated electricity into the grid in 2025, according to the Bundesnetzagentur (this excludes selfconsumption). Renewables at 58.8% overall.
https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/DE/2026/20260105_Smard.html

2026-01-05 16:52:24 CET

First day back at work after maternity leave, and in my new office in the basement (the baby has my old office). I have company.
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/115/843/289/340/183/315/original/1e44df2944f438c8.jpg

2025-12-31 14:49:21 CET

When feeding the baby: wash hands, boil the water, clean the bottles with hot soapy water, sterilise the gherkin jar we mix it up in...
The baby: sucks the floor

2025-12-18 10:44:47 CET

The UK got 54.7% of its electricity generation from renewables in the third quarter of 2025. Though because nuclear and hydro generation were down year-on-year, gas generation was also up.
(Also, UK government at last revising its historical solar numbers up from 3Q 2020! We have known for years it was wrong).
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6941a0321d8a56d23b7f0b4d/Energy_Trends_December_2025.pdf

2025-12-17 14:15:25 CET

World Scientific Publishing has a deal on my book for Kindle - $20 or £20 - until the end of February 2026.
(Or, as usual, ask your local library for it.)
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/115/735/088/096/723/087/original/532065121cee9ec0.png

2025-12-05 09:46:00 CET

Pedant point but as a former (failed, student) physicist I hate the word "electrons" being used for "electricity". While electrons are complicated (are they a wave? A particle? Beta radiation?) they're definitely not a substance you pour into a wire.

2025-11-02 20:20:45 CET

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yeah but the easy, resource-plentiful world we live in, where we are talking to each other via magic boxes from the comfort of our warm-ish homes, owning several changes of clothes and cupboards of food and cooking implements? Also the product of many, many industry disruptions. Don't see many weavers or tinkers or coal men any more.
(I fear AI's impact on the information environment. That's not the same as bemoaning all progress.)

2025-11-02 08:17:44 CET

This is a good article with some phenomenal numbers (AI data centers might represent 92% of US GDP growth in the first half of 2025?) and some less so (30GW of power isn't, on a global scale, actually that much. It can still be a lot locally).
The thing about financial bubbles is that it's really difficult to place a bet on them bursting, so the incentives of nearly all sophisticated financial players are in propping them up.
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/2025/10/data-centers-ai-crash/684765

2025-10-20 09:19:02 CEST

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21. Everyone is defining 'long-duration storage technology' wrong. It's not about 6 or 8 hours — you can do that with lithium-ion and probably will — it's about having the capex to add more GWh of capacity decoupled from the capex of adding more GW.

2025-10-20 09:18:15 CEST

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20. There is no way we can build a big enough battery to shift energy from summer to winter. The economics of battery storage are nearly impossible at one cycle a year.

2025-10-20 09:18:02 CEST

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19. In general this is a problem for solar, both for manufacturing and downstream: a distributed industry with low barriers to entry, and therefore few large firms, has little lobbying power. Industry associations work against this to represent the interests of renewables in politics, against those of more naturally consolidated industries like fossil fuels, but they do have a structural disadvantage.

2025-10-20 09:17:23 CEST

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18. It is very difficult for installers and financiers to become large and long-term profitable in the residential solar and storage market. Margins are thin and there are diseconomies of scale.

2025-10-20 09:16:58 CEST

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17. Small-scale batteries are a thing too, even though the economics don’t always make much sense. 2024 battery attachment rates – proportion of residential PV buyers who get a battery too – were ~ 80% in Germany and Italy, ~ 50% in Switzerland, UK and California.

2025-10-20 09:16:45 CEST

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15. It's very easy to say "but batteries!" and those are definitely part of the solution. California has over 14GW of batteries in a grid with roughly 50GW peak demand, and the reliability of the grid has improved as its carbon emissions go down.
16. ...but batteries are still small. In 2024, about 181GWh of lithium-ion stationary storage was deployed worldwide, plus 974GWh lithium-ion batteries in vehicles. (https://www.bnef.com/insights/37025).

2025-10-20 09:14:47 CEST

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13. By 2030 most countries will have spot power prices of zero in sunny hours. This will be passed on to end consumers, to encourage them to shift power demand to sunny periods by electric vehicle and battery charging, preheating, precooling, etc.
14. Low power prices may be great for consumers but they are very bad if you're trying to build more clean power plants. Without demand-side flexibility, the energy transition will fail before fully pushing fossil fuel out of the mix.

2025-10-20 09:14:11 CEST

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12. This is already obvious in Spain, California, Australia and even Germany. Now that the global liquefied natural gas price hike related to Russia invading Ukraine in 2022 has eased, lower power prices drive solar developers to seek long-term contracts again.

2025-10-20 09:13:41 CEST

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10. 'Power price cannibalization' for solar happens because solar plants in one area all generate at the same time. This means that they reduce the price of power at that time, “cannibalizing” their own revenues.
11. High solar penetration resulting in power price cannibalization also affects other power plants, but not as much as it affects solar, because solar plants generate most at times when solar is pushing the price down most. This will inhibit further solar build.

2025-10-20 09:13:10 CEST

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9. Thank goodness we’ve collectively stopped the nonsense of boasting about "lowest ever solar auction prices", most of which were Middle East opaque transfer prices or had other features. PV power prices below $25/MWh unsubsidized are still too low. This is very cheap power, but solar still does cost money.

2025-10-20 09:12:25 CEST

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8. India and the US have solar import tariffs, so modules are pricier there (~15 and ~27 cents/W respectively). Both countries are subsidizing local manufacturing capacity. This is a perfectly good strategy as long as it doesn’t slow down their energy transition, but...
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/115/405/244/408/744/653/original/f70c50bcea775cc1.jpg

2025-10-20 09:11:01 CEST

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7. Solar manufacturing has always been a horrible business, and that’s unlikely to change. It’s very commoditised, barriers to entry are fairly low, and incremental improvements in cell and module tech make factories obsolete in less than four years.

2025-10-20 09:10:37 CEST

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6. These prices mean that few makers of solar modules are profitable right now. If manufacturers stop selling at these prices, they will permanently lose customers. They are locked into a game of chicken. There will be bankruptcies and eventual price stabilisation.

2025-10-20 09:10:24 CEST

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5. Solar modules now cost 8.9 US cents per Watt (higher in US, India due to trade barriers). Solar panels are cheaper than most ordinary fencing materials. For rooftop installs, non-module cost is still $0.50-3.00 per Watt, so further module price declines make little difference.

2025-10-20 09:09:52 CEST

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4. We don’t need a solar technology breakthrough. The challenges to building solar are usually getting a grid connection and planning permission, or increasingly, power price cannibalization. Of which more later in thread.

2025-10-20 09:09:33 CEST

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3. Solar will not solve every problem. But the biggest problem is that our civilisation relies on digging up fossil carbon and burning it, which is destabilising the climate, which multiplies a lot of very unpleasant threats. Solar is part of stopping us needing to do that.

2025-10-20 09:09:13 CEST

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2. 20 years ago when I got this job, I thought maybe solar would one day be 1% of global electricity supply. In 2024 it was about 7% worldwide, and rising fast. You can see this eating into fossil fuel power generation in, for example, Europe.
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/115/405/232/194/295/543/original/84c55a2ad90e9f47.jpg

2025-10-20 09:08:00 CEST

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1. To opinions! Solar is the cheapest source of bulk electricity in many countries, and the quickest to deploy, and now you couldn't stop it being built if you wanted to. The limits to PV build in most places are grid access, permitting, and sometimes installation labour.

2025-10-20 09:06:12 CEST

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I have put out this thread once a year on X since 2017 and Mastodon / Bluesky since 2024. See 2024 thread below, and from there links to previous threads. So you can see what I got wrong, or at least changed.
https://mastodon.green/@solar_chase/113214911341855405
Some of these assertions will contain links to BloombergNEF content under a paywall. If you are not lucky enough to have access, you'll have to believe me that's what it says.
Also, I'm on maternity leave, so this thread is lighter on changes than in some years.

2025-10-20 09:04:50 CEST

Time to make 2025 updates to my annual “opinions about solar” thread. If you like these, you might like the second edition of my book, Solar Power Finance Without The Jargon. A 30% discount code WSQ0437 is valid on publisher website until end of Nov 2025.
It's the book I should have read before trying to get a job in renewable energy. Reviewers describe it as “to the point, important, and taught me a lot” and “surprisingly entertaining, don’t be put off by the title”.
https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/q0437#t=aboutBook

2025-08-19 05:02:02 CEST

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fwiw I went with option 2.
The Net Zero Scenario modelling my firm does assumes only the planned nuclear pipeline, mostly in China and South Korea, gets built. It uses a massive buildout of wind, solar and batteries to mostly-decarbonise power and transport.
But then it ends up relying on CCS to cover industrial emissions and, honestly, I personally have more hope of a nuclear renaissance than a massive CCS sector.

2025-08-06 09:37:47 CEST

I do bloody love this chart. Who'd have thought, 20 years ago when I started this job, that solar would be ~10% of world electricity generation by 2024 - and over 20% in some countries, rising rapidly in others?
Definitely not me. When I started this job I hoped that I could be part of a solution for maybe 1% of global electricity generation.
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/114/980/659/167/639/104/original/e1168039daeb3e54.jpg

2025-08-05 20:12:03 CEST

Me calling the avian vet: please I need an appointment, my goose is sick
Vet's receptionist: what are the symptoms?
Me: she's quiet
VR: ok but what are the symptoms
Me: you don't understand she is a quiet goose she is going to DIE
(I have an appointment. I am genuinely extremely worried about her. I am also worried because I have a two hour hospital appointment re: pregnancy immediately before, and probably cannot take the goose to it).

2025-07-18 11:47:19 CEST

Today I am enjoying this article about a bird, or rather three birds, used as a plot point in the 2000 Charlie's Angel film and the solution to a 25-year-old mystery.
("no animal handler would ever have included a pygmy nuthatch, not just because they are small, colorless, and unlikely to grab a viewer’s eye. They are also illegal to cast in a movie.. ")
https://slate.com/culture/2025/05/birds-movies-charlies-angels-2000-pygmy-nuthatch.html

2025-07-06 14:06:27 CEST

Redcurrants are so bloody beautiful, man.
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/114/806/197/240/753/726/original/8964f2759ae5f2ed.jpg

2025-07-04 16:10:06 CEST

I really like running the airconditioning on solar power.
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/114/795/359/286/137/447/original/40c369bcd862beba.jpg

2025-06-09 08:38:16 CEST

Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC)—a government-backed body under the Ministry of Finance - to allocate 2GW of underutilised coal capacity to, uh, Bitcoin mining and Artificial Intelligence (AI) data centers.
(I feel like this isn't great but what else was the Pakistan grid going to do? It's astonishing that a country with 248m people, only about 50GW of big ongrid power plants, and economic growth has a *power surplus*, at least partly because of small solar. )
https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/pakistan-redirects-2gw-to-bitcoin-mining-and-ai-data-centers/

2025-06-07 20:12:57 CEST

Can't move, goslings on feet.
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/114/643/432/775/764/526/original/278509bf8e1aa3b0.jpg

2025-06-05 16:58:12 CEST

In the US? Want to become a solar expert? Consider joining my team.
https://bloomberg.avature.net/careers/JobDetail/BloombergNEF-US-Solar-Analyst/12187

2025-06-03 23:00:48 CEST

This afternoon the smallest gosling developed an eye infection with two hours until the vet closed and the car out with my husband.
Apologies to the other bus passengers wondering why a heavily pregnant woman holding her jacket closed was carrying a dirty bucket, with the jacket making loud sleepy trills.
(We now have animal antibiotic eye drops).
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/114/621/430/784/984/397/original/734546b2001205bd.jpg

2025-06-01 12:12:19 CEST

Small Child is in charge of naming the goslings. In consequence this little gander, the smallest of the group, is Darth Maul.
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/114/607/561/059/803/580/original/84618ea9bce82925.jpg

2025-05-27 07:35:53 CEST

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the Netherlands has about 18 million people. It's not clear how many use data centers but it is a much, much larger number.
This sort of comparison always strikes me as a bit "oh no, a large number of people, many of them in developed countries, are using energy comparable to that of a small number of Westeners - shocking!"
I think there are much better arguments against frivolous and fraudulent use of AI, which is not all uses of AI.

2025-05-24 19:25:01 CEST

Gratuitous gosling photos.
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/114/563/962/319/681/501/original/7312b8be9dea86c9.jpg
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/114/563/967/731/790/715/original/dbae11e4b31e40cf.jpg

2025-05-23 10:48:12 CEST

For the record (and because I happened to be looking this up) here is BNEF's best guess for how much data centers / AI drives up power demand, for our New Energy Outlook 2025:
"Data-center power capacity was an estimated 81 gigawatts in 2024, consuming 371 terawatt-
hours of electricity, or 1.4% of global final demand. We estimate their capacity will rapidly increase to 179GW by 2030 and 277GW by 2035...."

2025-05-22 09:24:34 CEST

Goslings. Six now - the smallest two are now two days old. Three little ganders, three little geese. Utterly unbothered by the rain and chilly temperatures today.
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/114/550/282/047/366/214/original/1eac6f7a3aaf014e.jpg

2025-05-15 17:55:36 CEST

Birthday party invitations are being written with a certain lack of efficiency.
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/114/512/654/096/313/802/original/0f2ed957190fbf05.jpg

2025-05-14 15:49:20 CEST

My favourite random new wind fact is that Romania and Bulgaria are not expected to build offshore wind by 2030, because the bridges in Istanbul are too low to let offshore wind installation vessels get into the Black Sea.

2025-05-13 13:28:10 CEST

Client: so what are the major routes to decarbonising industry
Me: I have a live gosling under my shirt.
(This is a much better photo of him meeting his dad. Hopefully he will get some siblings to cuddle with soon.)
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/114/500/278/171/947/961/original/8fce149252bcd903.jpg

2025-05-06 21:21:17 CEST

I have never yet used ChatGPT or equivalents. I do understand that, for specific and bounded uses in the hands of someone knowledgeable, they can be a timesaver.
I am meant to take a corporate training on them. As basically a machine for putting words and numbers into meaningful and pleasing configurations, I resent this in the same way a smart plough-horse might resent a tractor.
But mostly I fear the effect of huge volumes of plausible, often personalised misinformation.

2025-04-21 19:11:05 CEST

One of the things about breeding and selling geese is that I love geese, I adore geese, and yet when someone else expresses an interest in acquiring geese from me (especially this time of year) my natural response is "really? Are you sure? They're kind of arseholes."

2025-04-17 14:57:21 CEST

When the topic of low Australian residential PV capex comes up, people say "oh that's the SDC capex incentive". Which is indeed about AUD 0.37/W, according to my Oz colleagues.
But that still gives a total cost of build of only ~$0.82/W - vs $1.25/W for Germany. What gives?
My standard answer is "hypercompetitive and relatively low-regulation installation industry, roofs well suited to work without scaffolding, fairly standardized systems of average size ~8.1kW so not small". Any additions?

2025-04-03 17:32:22 CEST

This is a database of reasons why solar and wind projects have been rejected for planning permission in the US, collated by Robert Bryce.
https://robertbryce.com/renewable-rejection-database/

2025-03-24 11:04:00 CET

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Thing that is true: solar panels are now almost unbelievably cheap, and batteries are going the same way.
Do not underestimate this factor. I do think we will have abundant electricity when it's sunny, and possibly even from spring to autumn.
That is still a constrained condition. Industrial decarbonization and winter remain hard problems. Sustainable aviation fuel is *incredibly* energy intensive, absolutely dwarfs the likely needs of AI and data centers.

2025-03-24 09:55:23 CET

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Anyway I think we should build the sort of things I approve of (renewables, bike lanes, public transport infrastructure, schools and hospitals and public libraries, dense high-quality housing near public transport nodes) and not build the sort of things I don't approve of.
I will be wanting to make these approvals on a case by case basis, so the sooner I am made dictator of the world, the better. [This last bit is a joke].

2025-03-24 09:47:49 CET

I feel like I should read Ezra Klein's Abundance. Apparently I'm quoted in chapter 2, and it is relevant to my interests, and I don't think one should ever have an opinion on a book without having read it. Also a lot of the criticism of it seems to be ad hominem / tribal solidarity dancing rather than analysis, and I disapprove of that.
But, ugh.

2025-03-23 19:29:30 CET

My two young ganders decided they wanted to be in a breeding group with the same older female goose, and after a cursory effort to persuade them to be interested in the two young female geese, I gave up and let them.
There is minor drama - I think only Gale is actually mating with Ianthe and Wyll is kind of more into Gale - but they are much happier than the other breeding group. Which is three squabbling geese and one very confused gander who is always being told to attack someone by someone.
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/114/213/130/561/956/132/original/0cb3271860b18e22.jpg

2025-03-19 21:13:03 CET

Saw one of the coop.ch delivery vans with solar in my village yesterday. First vehicle-integrated solar I have seem in the wild.
(I don't think it's actually an EV, but rather the solar and a battery runs the fridges inside. Looks like polymer encapsulant.)
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/114/190/914/325/513/554/original/3200388afc53f064.jpg

2025-03-18 12:05:00 CET

A typical photovoltaic module sold in 2024 was mono TOPCon with 22.7% efficiency, at a price below $0.10/W.
A typical solar module sold in 2012 was multi AlBSF with efficiency of 15.4% and a price of about $0.87/W.
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/114/183/101/409/702/734/original/5c373bafa490fd32.jpg

2025-03-13 18:41:46 CET

Terrace hedgehog has come out of hibernation.
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/114/156/351/370/489/180/original/f241897d3ed6463c.jpg

2025-03-10 17:09:35 CET

After all these years I still find myself writing sentences like "since 2022, nearly all solar modules used in large-scale solar plants have been bisexual".
BiFACIAL. They have been *bifacial*. You probably would not get ChatGPT making that mistake.

2025-03-10 12:11:58 CET

I think there's this weird myth that farmers dislike solar, when actually farming is a really tough business (especially with climate change) and they'd much rather be doing almost anything else with the land.
Example, this time from the US: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/climate-lab/wa-ranchers-turn-to-new-crop-solar-power/

2025-03-09 09:22:08 CET

As the sun comes back with the tilting earth, this household has discovered a new source of relationship conflict: when to charge the electric car for optimal PV selfconsumption.

2025-03-07 08:59:25 CET

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An hour later he was once again interrupted by the monkey's cries, and rushed next door, very angry, to find the monkey once again on top of the cabinet.
"I didn't do anything!" said the guest. "I swear! He just went up there!"
Philador looked down at the board. "Ah" he said. "Mate in five."

2025-03-07 08:59:20 CET

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Suddenly he was interrupted by hoots of indignation, and he entered the lounge to find the monkey cowering at the top of a high cabinet.
"I'm so sorry" said the guest. "The monkey beat me at chess, so I hit it."
Philador was not very happy about that, but when the guest apologised profusely he allowed a second game.

2025-03-07 08:58:24 CET

Apparently a famous chess joke, via @npub136q…5683 telling it to Small Child this morning:
The great chess master (and opera composer) Philador was much sought after in his Paris home by players wishing to challenge him. This annoyed Philador, so he trained a monkey to play chess. The deal was that if you could beat the monkey, you could play against Philador.
One day the monkey was playing against a man in Philador's lounge, while the composer worked undisturbed in the room next door.

2025-02-23 20:14:40 CET

I think a lot these days about how for my parents, 'being informed' means that they watch BBC News most nights and read the Observer on the weekend.
No social media. No absorption of news via random people who want you to be outraged or are angry that you're not angry enough for them.
They vote, and they spend a lot of time helping old people in their village get to doctor appointments, and they help with the Parish magazine.
...it increasingly feels like they have the right way of it.

2025-02-16 13:58:37 CET

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A major principle of mine is "just because you had certain expectations of an investment, does not mean the world is obliged to meet them unless a legal commitment was made".

2025-02-16 13:33:07 CET

Ugh I have to decide whether to wade into village politics on the subject of the local utility cutting the solar export rate, which is infuriating to my neighbours who bought solar.
Personally I am broadly on the side of the local utility. A well-planned energy transition for northern Europe requires more sophistication than just adding solar, which mostly generates when it's less needed. It probably even requires more than just solar + batteries.
But my German is not good enough for this...

2025-02-03 17:29:08 CET

Wait, the German Bundesnetzagentur reckons renewables were *nearly 60%* of electricity generation in 2024?
https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/DE/2025/20250108_EE.html?nn=659670
Though BDEW observes this is only about 20% of total primary energy use in the country. But look at that total go down year on year!
https://www.bdew.de/service/daten-und-grafiken/primaerenergieverbrauch/

2025-01-25 13:59:09 CET

Finally a warm enough day to sit outside with my geese. These days we have the older ones Samson, Stiorra and Ianthe, their daughters Orin and Ethel, and the two new bloodline ganders Wyll and Gale. Both young ganders are in love with Ianthe.
The one at the front is Samson. Geese should not be mistaken for cuddly toys, except for Samson.
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/113/889/106/898/777/605/original/4d3d4483da32462c.jpg
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/113/889/107/020/343/200/original/385ffbafe4fc2be9.jpg

2025-01-21 19:25:47 CET

I currently have a Baader-Meinhof phenomenon in effect regarding the Madagascar Hissing Cockroach.

2025-01-13 19:04:05 CET

My TED talk on how cheap solar is changing the world, or at least Pakistan, South Africa and California. And how difficult it is to get good data on solar.
https://www.ted.com/talks/jenny_chase_solar_energy_is_even_cheaper_than_you_think?subtitle=en

2025-01-08 11:56:47 CET

Renewables supplied 55% of electricity consumption in Germany in 2024, according to German utilities association BDEW. Energy sector carbon emissions down 9% from 2023. But many further challenges remain (this is a really good summary of what's going on btw).
https://www.bdew.de/presse/presseinformationen/energiewende-in-2025-weiterentwickeln-steuerbare-kraftwerke-zubauen-finanzierung-sicherstellen-stromkosten-daempfen/

2025-01-04 09:25:10 CET

2024 was an absolutely terrible year for sunshine in Europe, right? My 13.2kW solar system generated just 9.98MWh; the lowest it's ever done before in a full year was 11.6MWh.
Also our consumption has risen because we bought an electric car in August, so for the first time we're not a net exporter - we used 11.3MWh this year!
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/113/769/122/365/173/768/original/84b4800bd483940c.jpg