Nostr notes by Grace_Too

Nostr event nevent1qqsvkvtakpxeyxz8cjx9e9jzrq5z5gtemegq43yy4rv8wc23tyudw0szyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwskdnvc

2026-05-01T13:03:23+02:00

I'm working on a new stacking strategy based on value averaging, a concept introduced by Michael Edleson. My idea isn't fully flushed out yet, but according to the strategy, you would be stacking as hard as you can

WEF is right. You should be prepared and follow their advice ...

2026-04-21T11:42:02+02:00

WEF is right. You should be prepared and follow their advice almost, mostly...

Own NOTHING and be safe.... from WEF.

The Nick Shirley act passed, truth is lawlessness

The Sovereign Individual thesis is going full tilt because this nonsense is unsustainable.

Before Trump loses everything I hope Alberta votes for yes for seperation and that Trump recognizes Alberta's free independance. I'd love to see the look an the average idiot elbow's up libtarded Canadian when that happens....

I love Canada, I owe everything to the people who struggled and died making this place a gem. I wish it I wasn't taking the death of my nation so personally. I wish I could just be the greyman, but it fucking hurts

Human rights tribunals in Canada, under the lies of "fairness" promote sexual devients and sick pedophiles. Put our children in more danger with every ruling and judgement against people who say NO MORE.

Bitcoin is a shield. You can stay under it and be the grey man, you can stand up withstand their arrows. They can try and put a lien against you, but as the saying goes, if it ain't their keys, it ain't their cheese

Just a rant, but I'm so tired of this. And it's not even started yet.

FML why does it still have to get worse before it gets better.

It's easy to read the AI assistance everywhere you look now. ...

2026-04-02T01:35:15+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…wasq
_________________________

It's easy to read the AI assistance everywhere you look now. Add more of your own voice rather than asking the AI to write in your voice

Nostr event nevent1qqs2ygvhqsla6urlprdkh9ywuwy3n8nwlsfhwfqgvwgnm2p9xv2270gzyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwtmwls5

2026-04-01T09:30:59+02:00

Nostr event nevent1qqsxuhet9uv0qwfecfz4rdtsnscmf2t43pq4lvmfd5n04wqydszqh2czyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwhkhrgf

2026-04-01T09:19:44+02:00

There are 3 regular perma bears that I love to hate. None of them know Bitcoin, 2 of them claim to be smart. 1 is completely retarded in every way. I bet they're super frustrated right now because bitcoin isn't doing what they said it ought to be. We had a small bull trend that made a lower high and we swung back into the range which is neutral territory. Something Mr Sophisticated PhD Ben Cowen can't seem to fathom. Wasn't that dude a Swifty for ADA? I can't remember and I can't be bothered to check I'm just pretty sure it's true.

I don't have a lot to say except that I continue to be impressed. Bitcoin hasn't come close to the daily low close let alone close below 65K.
That said, we're pumping into some resistance with bearish divergence.

We closed our first monthly green candle since Sept.

I'm Neutrally impressed with this consolidation range

aren't these things supposed to explode and not fall out of ...

2026-03-30T21:49:08+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…d4j3
_________________________

aren't these things supposed to explode and not fall out of the sky in one nice piece? What do I know, I'm not a doctor. I just play one on TV

Nostr event nevent1qqszzveydpdp6qpz95wx6ldzptqxqyrzkruy5vgz8w9jyh48ex27lkszyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwlgmf8y

2026-03-30T21:47:01+02:00

Just a perfect rejection off of the original bear trend. Since the upthrust to 75K it's been and orderly walk down the ladder, frustrating all sides of the market. If we see a daily close below 62.8K I could see a fast flush down to 48K. David Levenson's sub 10K predictions are retarded... i want to know what the rest of markets look like when we get there. I'm a full believer in "the Great Taking" thesis. Only place to be is Bitcoin, at any price.

Nostr event nevent1qqsq8gf940m40apthwsl6wmegnwt0vhgrc2unzcrv856r9v2rarahzqzyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqw7v80j0

2026-03-30T21:39:31+02:00

Still neutral, but this isn't the price action we're looking for on the bull case. Perfect rejections at key price horizontals. Only 3 days in 2026 has price closed below 65,107.

As a side note.... I'm not up to speed on the BIP 110, people ...

2026-03-25T11:20:54+01:00

As a side note....

I'm not up to speed on the BIP 110, people I have come to respect are on all sides of this argument and it's kinda ugly. But from a market perspective... I don't think it's bullish. I don't think if there is a hard fork all of a sudden you're going to have Bitcoin A and Bitcoin B at 100K I mean maybe? I doubt it though. The more I think of maybe it will be, and lots of people are going to sell the right version of Bitcoin too soon and lose everything. That's the most entertaining option - as Musk might say

Nostr event nevent1qqstyze9gphgzjsrmkj36t72kal5algy48xyajm66l0zzxlpntvmydszyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwwe53lc

2026-03-25T11:12:39+01:00

Neutral, but above the 4-hour trend. That matters.

What looked like a head and shoulders before the aftermarket War Iran war shock has quietly morphed into what could be an inverse head and shoulders when markets opened back up. Call it what you want, that's the cost of being in the market and needing to know what you own.

If the neckline holds, 74K is your measured target. Market structure is starting to build from the lower timeframes up — and the daily is finally showing me something: higher highs, higher lows. That's not nothing.
Now — the cycle question nobody's asking honestly.
The question isn't "is 60K the bottom?" The question is: where does the risk/reward sit right now?

Here's where I land. I'm not convinced 60K was the bottom. But I also don't need to be. That's the wrong argument to win.

If this is the bottom, everyone who bought under 78K is sitting on a gift. You're buying sats at prices potentially 50% off the previous high. You don't need to be the genius who called the exact low — you need to be the person who was in the zone when the risk was asymmetric. You won't know the bottom until it's well behind you. The edge isn't precision — it's being approximately right when the margin of safety is real.

So what do I do with this? Stink bids. Test the waters. If you're not in yet, you're still shopping at a discount. Size accordingly, not heroically.
The caveat I'd insist on: the weekly has not flipped bullish. Full stop. That's not a reason to ignore the setup — it's a reason to size for a trade, not bet the stack. The cycle turns slowly, then all at once. Respect the sequence.

Stay humble about what you know. Stay honest about what you don't. The chart is giving you permission to look — not to go all in.

Nostr event nevent1qqs2300vuk877f89pg6yzf4suk7etjsqvajvp8hdg6e898np5qsvzhgzyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwc5r4lz

2026-03-16T08:59:20+01:00

Gap to Gap

When trend lines get broken, they often get revisited — not always on the same timeframe. The 12h trend line on my chart since October 28th was tested last week, almost five months later. You can't see that until you look at the lowest time frames. Here it's the 15m chart.

I found how to identify these trends during the 2020 bull run. That bull move stayed above a 2d trend throughout. Every prior bear market had a weekly downtrend line established by this point — this one doesn't. That's worth noting.

If we overcome the 2d it'll be because we've built the market structure to support it. That's where this bear market gets repaired — between the gaps. A daily close below the D/CL at 63,500 tells me the base has failed.

This bear market is not dead. But the resiliency off the base is a good start

I coudn't imagine being afraid of a win win scenario, but ...

2026-03-14T19:51:28+01:00

I coudn't imagine being afraid of a win win scenario, but there it is. Must be a cheeky Melanial

I’m just a fan… I’m 20 books into Bitcoin, my chosen ...

2026-03-13T11:34:05+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…efgd
_________________________

I’m just a fan… I’m 20 books into Bitcoin, my chosen mentorship has been Andreas Antonopoulos, through doing my best to read Mastering Bitcoin, and Lightning, Internet of Money 1 and 2. I don’t code. I recommend by 2 methods. Is the code Open source, and reputation. I’ll own that, it’s my personal best. Mike I’ve heard you on 2 podcasts years ago. You seemed very intelligent and interesting. 1 observation. You and your brother are hyperbolic in your vision/forecasts. I have no idea or proof that you’re an honest person or a liar.

Matt- I’ve listened to a lot. He absolutely has admitted his upper limitations on code work in RHR 2018/2019 when I heard it.

I don’t know of any lies he’s ever told, and have always found him to be believable at the very least and always seemed sincere.

This is all I know

And now this. Your approach to this discussion - turns me the fuck off - makes me think that you’re an absolute cunt - but I’m new to it because I’ve been really busy in my own life. I can agree that Bitcoin should only be money. I see and agree with all of the points about keeping the blockchain as light as possible in terms of data because of my eyes as a former communicator in the navy. That said I hate censorship, and Bitcoin is a hill that I will lay my life on for my family

Is it possible that good people can approach this conversation in a constructive way where the community can learn from and grow together - I’m just a student. Ride or die BTCsessions (nprofile…gkkr) can we generate good discussions on this. Can we get opposite parties together and learn ODELL (npub1qny…95gx)

I was on the can... I was compelled to shit post. I had to. There ...

2026-03-13T09:55:03+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…sv29
_________________________

I was on the can... I was compelled to shit post. I had to. There we no rhyme, no reason. The only thing that made sense to me and my mad hominem was Nineteen Sevenny Nine. That was the relief on top of my relief, then all that was left for me to do was flush

Nostr event nevent1qqs0y9593l429yn65e83xf7ppy7d0gs83ray76wwkrug4jxwruztnwgzyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwe62rdf

2026-03-13T08:45:25+01:00

This doesn't look like a liquidity grab to me, this looks bullish. The purple down trend was part of the trend channel I was observing that I thought we'd be stuck in. and we're currently out, we could revisit, but this is constructive price action on the 8hr. I'm seeing a case that we could end the week above 70.3k That would be step 1 in market repair. Everyone is noticing the pattern that i spoke about for over a month before anyone saw how obvious it was. Go back and look. Well I'm telling you now, that maybe it was a crowded trade. I'm seeing the market build a cause, very early stages.

Nostr event nevent1qqspwqg4nsz5qvwxr2pd7lfnsuplzcvrn4vwktedw9pl52y90pwnyrszyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqw93k80t

2026-03-13T08:35:56+01:00

It might be difficult to see I appologize if you're 1 of the 0 people following my charts. In 2022 we were nowhere near the price trend (for me that is the time based portion of a correction). Today we are at that trend, right now, we've rejected it once already and now we're challenging it again. I've removed a lot from my chart so you can see the candle and the terminal points of the trend line projection. We're already trading above both of the 4hr down trends I had in purple, one I erased 2 weeks ago because it was no longer relevant to us

Nostr event nevent1qqswuxs0zhgwamn0r5qlje0y0nsns4mp909uwjax7pr7xyfxpzhp4yczyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqw8e0lww

2026-03-13T08:27:00+01:00

I'm not 100% sure the same pattern is playing out anymore. But I've been consistent in my analysis. For me to change my mind about the trend I need to see change in market structure. For me that is a few steps. 1. I need to see a close above the green weekly close low horizontal W/CL. 2. I want to see another candle open and close above the same horizontal. I took my short position off on Wednesday because the time factor in my trade wasn't playing out. In 2022 their was a liquidity grab in the beginning of the week before it dumped. We could be doing a liquidity grab right now, I don't know. But if the CME closes above this level, most weekends, most of the time price action does nothing. But we have some bullish patterns that could take us higher today that I'm noticing. It's not impossible that the "Bottom is in crowd" is correct. I'm starting to see the beginning of a repair, there's a lot of work to do on the weekly first

Nostr event nevent1qqs9f4vgumt5z7w7zf5tdkzmw9qk46mdsqadj4vfec40y8vk98pu9mqzyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqw9ql73m

2026-03-07T23:16:40+01:00

Trade was initiated on Wednesday, with a take profit set for 48944K, I'll try and stick with it for as long as I can and give the trade as much room to breath as it needs. Above the QPH we set a small head and shoulders toping pattern on the 15m chart. Looks like another head and shoulder pattern is forming, but maybe I'm just seeing things. It's measured move takes price below the wick. In 2022 once a daily candle closed below the D/CL level price never looked back until Sub 20k levels

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2026-03-04T10:30:13+01:00

A bit of a surprise to me, I was expecting a 12hr trend to be set from the failure of the bull trap, but it was set at the bear trap that initiated this current pump. It's bisecting the 4hr trends. It will be interesting to see how price interacts with this trend in the future. I've been extending all of my long term trends out to 30k. All trends must start from candle opens, then I throw them as far into the future as possible and lock them in

Nostr event nevent1qqs0nyavwf3994xy44wstyllasw4nh0nxf6vsxfj8uwmcmaufunlfsszyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwre375s

2026-03-04T10:20:08+01:00

Right now my target is the quarter pivot high. There's a lot of resistance above, and we don't have any bullish market structure. If you've been patient and not shorting breakouts like most of your friends then you're seeing opportunity. First level I'm looking at is 73.5k, my second point of interest is 78.3K

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2026-03-04T10:08:40+01:00

The trap is being set! Watch your favourite influencers tell you how bullish Bitcoin is... we're going to retake the highs! I'm going to keep an eye on Cheds, I let him know that the best market analysis is right here on NOSTR. I'm fading as we speak I have the orders set at 73444. What invalidates my thesis. The week must both open and close a candle above 70132K the Weekly close low. That to me would be a sign to watch for the market starting to repair structure

Nostr event nevent1qqsvdh8hv464caj55gmmu98f30wjg7k5sth834qksduw8aka34g4g3szyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqw9ep6ps

2026-03-03T00:44:11+01:00

A more zoomed in look. Short term trends can get noisy. Currently above a 1hr up trend, as more time passes we inch closer to major down trends. If Price stays at this level it will meet the 4hr down trend in purple on Friday the 13th. Price would have to rally 14% to with the Weekly low close from here.

Nostr event nevent1qqsfccjhjcy2qwwcztkuhzj9ze3dsa6h6cqescfyj7qrmmqcmk63erszyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwcu7lwl

2026-03-03T00:25:21+01:00

Not a lot to say, Throw over seems to still be in play, I think it's a stinky fish for all the bulls out there. Sure this time could be different, but so far it's been the same ole cycle. In 2022 once price broke from the range it took 170 days to find a bottom and just over 300 days before price recovered from the lows. Being a bear is easy right now, but they're on the right side of the trend. I hope you're still accumulating your fiat, bear hunting season is around the corner. Their turn is coming soon, and we're gonna kill'em

This has nothing to do with me, Haiti is run by BBQ Sauce and ...

2026-02-27T15:15:03+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…2lte
_________________________

This has nothing to do with me, Haiti is run by BBQ Sauce and I’m not a fascist because I can’t figure their shit out. Blame Quebec

lol I’m bearish… but maybe not bearish enough? Maybe I’m ...

2026-02-27T12:51:55+01:00

lol I’m bearish… but maybe not bearish enough? Maybe I’m being too bullish on bull traps 🤷‍♂️ We’re under the cover of a downtrend until I chart otherwise. Cheerio!

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2026-02-27T10:43:10+01:00

Zoomed out this looks a lot like a 5 wave structure. We would be in wave 4 right now and 1 to 1 extension of wave 1 fits wave 3 perfectly. If wave 5 matches that energy, the target is the red S/R around 48.6K. Should all of this play out so easily. I'll be looking for accumulation patterns with Wyckoff techniques, verified by market structure. - If this all plays like 2022 it would just blow my mind. Lets see if the MVRV crosses its 6.89 accumulation zone. The MVRV accumulation floor is 1.89

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2026-02-27T10:18:03+01:00

Last weekend I was early to the throw over, we had the ghey one, but that turned into a more fun bear trap. I don't have a crystal ball, but I have a feeling that the bears are going to get liquidated before they're proven right. The 4h down trend in purple crosses the quarterly pivot high level Monday March 2. Do we spend the weekend trapping bulls thinking that the Jane St witch is dead. I laid out this range from the second it was set. I think we're getting close to the terminal point and finish the denial phase of this bear market. It would amaze me if this is 3 weeks just like it was in 2022. Q.P.H is just 8% above, so not a big stretch to cover.

Nostr event nevent1qqsxrv7p2x5dzq0tzzsqvz76ssdkpr0wn5ptfuxncszjpxp5td20lxczyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwgy3wee

2026-02-27T09:52:03+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…3943
_________________________

Bull effin Poop! This right here says it all. I refuse to even show the massive forehead above, it's all so terribly heavy it has to be propped up from under the chin. I know bad actors when I see it... This mustache is straight from Nineteen Sevenny Nine and a Half

Huh? So Please educate me, what exactly is Matt doing. Why are ...

2026-02-25T10:17:45+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…r5dk
_________________________

Huh? So Please educate me, what exactly is Matt doing. Why are you bringing ad hominem into the conversation. Like where do you get off calling me a shitcoiner lol. I'm saying that I've NEVER known Matt to be a liar... So what are you saying. Because you're being as toxic as Matt is describing BiP 110-ers to be. I'll ad hominize myself here. In my small basic miopic understanding of Bitcoin... and I'm 20 books in and 10,000 hrs down the rabbit hole, I just don't code at all. I believe that the economics of block space will take care of this. Now your boy Luke put bible jpegs into the blocks, and what exactly did Satoshi put into the Genisis block... I'm here as a perpetual Learner... Do you know everything if so tell me... and when you talk to me, pretend we're face to face in meet space. I'm pretty sure, you'd be way more settled down and polite. It's a small world, we could end up accidentally running into each other. I mean you bumped into me here already, so Keep Sweet

He looks annoyed that once again he's working and you're ...

2026-02-23T11:43:45+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…eedp
_________________________

He looks annoyed that once again he's working and you're on your phone!

What do you mean he's not smart, Luke is unbelievably smart. ...

2026-02-23T11:40:55+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…lf9x
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What do you mean he's not smart, Luke is unbelievably smart. He's also carrying deep emotional scars from relentless bullying as a child for having the magic autism that is the source of his IQ

Luke's face is what I think a pedo looks like when their face ...

2026-02-23T11:38:04+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…my09
_________________________

Luke's face is what I think a pedo looks like when their face is uncovered by Scooby Doo and Mystery Inc... Listen I don't follow you as closely as I used to Matt... BUT I HAVE NEVER IN MY FUCKIN LIFE EVER SEEN YOU AND MARTY ACT IN A BULLSHIT WAY.... That's all I know from up here in Kanukistan - Doesn't make me right, but I'm ride or die with both of you until you kill me

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2026-02-23T11:30:06+01:00

Was that it? that was the bull trap over the weekend? I can't be sure. I was thinking it would have grabbed liquidity above the range highs on a few daily candles, but nothing has to do what you think it will. I'm not sure what's going on with Iran, the Olympics are done, and the State of the Union address is tomorrow. Mexico was lit up by the cartels yesterday, and Bitcoin isn't an uncertainty trade yet. The weekly RSI is just points away from all time ever lows (that I think we're going to break). The suck is starting either today, or within 14 days from now (unless we really did just have the gayest bull trap of all time). I asked my wife is she wanted to sell everything yesterday before this recent dump... I think she saw through my question for what it actually was - a divorce test, and she answered no. We'll be buying cheap cheap sats soon I think. I'm starting to wonder if praying for 30K is a bit too greedy.. I dunno We'll find out soon enough

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2026-02-21T21:18:08+01:00

Everyone who's says things are too bearish... welcome to the denial phase. There is just too much bullshit in all systems. I think we'll know a lot more about capitulation by May/June/July.... My call is that you're about to get bull trapped in the next 2 weeks

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2026-02-21T21:09:22+01:00

If the top of the range remains 70K then I think we have until March 9 or so before we take our next leg down. But I think we can go a little bit higher than that first. If we complete this 'W' pattern, I think a possible target could be around 76K. There's a lot of resistance at 73k. That would take us to the 4h down trend in purple. Which ever day we touch that trend will be a sell the news day. For me a bottom on this market we'll have an MVRV-z score of 2.6 That's when you hate your UTXOs. Do you think Bitcoin will have a hard fork? I wonder how professional money managers think about that. Uncertainty or opportunity

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2026-02-20T18:36:42+01:00

I think I'll side step whatever and play again another time. Just fun money every once in a while, I'm 100% not a trader lol

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2026-02-20T09:25:55+01:00

There was some tweet I saw yesterday from someone far more sophisticated than I am about the Monday dump, but what about the Thursday lows and Friday pumps? So last night I put a small bet on to make the weekend interesting and maybe take Mrs Too out for dinner on Sunday if I win. I certainly don't think we've put a bottom in while we're still inside this 4hr down trend channel. Be ware of bulls, especially late bulls telling you the bottom is in at 73k (if price gets there I'd be a fader). People are starting to talk about the range I forecasted almost two weeks ago, so I don't think it will last much longer

crickets here, but I lack both your panache, appeal and hair

2026-02-16T18:24:41+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…rfxj
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crickets here, but I lack both your panache, appeal and hair

Don’t read Nik’s copium, but do read his book Layered Money ...

2026-02-16T14:59:39+01:00

Don’t read Nik’s copium, but do read his book Layered Money

Prices will trend until the coin is dead, and only then will it rise again - MVRV Z’ed score 4

No fluff analysis is a tougher sell than max bull or bear. ...

2026-02-16T11:04:05+01:00

No fluff analysis is a tougher sell than max bull or bear. We’re still the same range as last week, burden of proof is on the bulls. This is re-distribution until proven otherwise. Weekly closes over 70k daily closes over 79k promotes bullish structure. I’m a buyer when the MVRV Z score reaches 4, currently it’s >13

Nostr event nevent1qqsgjp57phgqawp8jdld55k2c2fvh2aym2k8qvxy2tpvp3j7jfcenkczyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqw8p5yrh

2026-02-15T19:20:00+01:00

Bitcoin was wacked around within the range this week. The financial media served up the usual buffet — tariffs, sentiment, macro. None of it mattered. Because the price wasn't the story.

Structure is the story.
Weekly close made the ceiling. Daily low made the floor. Between those two levels, the most important thing in markets is happening — absolutely nothing. And if that bores you, you haven't been doing this long enough.

Here's what consolidation actually is. It's the phase that matters most and pays the least attention to your timeline.

This is the compression phase. The part nobody wants to talk about because there's nothing to sell you.

There's a concept in game theory called the winner's curse. It comes from oil lease auctions in the 1950s. The company that won the bid was, by definition, the one that overpaid the most. They celebrated the loudest. They were also the most wrong.

Bitcoin Maxi's has been running this auction for three months.

Buy the dip. How many times and counting?

Each one celebrated. Each one underwater. The buy signal isn't analysis anymore — it's identity.

You're not buying because the chart tells you to. You're buying because not buying means you're not one of us.

That's not a thesis. That's a loyalty test.

Here's the part nobody will say out loud.
The trend is down. Not "correcting." Not "shaking out weak hands." Down. The structure has not bottomed. The MVRV broke the bull market floor.

Trend is broken.
You are buying inside a range that is inside a downtrend that has not completed.
Read that again.

Every dip buy is one less bullet in the clip. And you're firing them into a range that doesn't care. Your cost basis is averaging into the middle of nowhere.

The real accumulation zone isn't here. It's below here. Maybe significantly below here. And when it arrives — when the channels converge, when the structure actually bottoms, when the MVRV prints a number that makes you physically sick — you'll be tapped out. Fully allocated at higher prices. Telling yourself it's fine because your "time horizon is long."

You know who has a long time horizon? The guy with dry powder in May. The guy who watched you buy the dip Ninety Nine times and waited.

That guy isn't early. He's solvent.
Conviction without structure is just stubbornness with a marketing budget.

The bottom will come. It always does. But it doesn't come for the loyal. It comes for the patient. And right now, the most contrarian thing you can do in Bitcoin is build

Nostr event nevent1qqst5kr63n5tcs9jld948xsgnnkue4kk4e5rg4svf2lc2eulj4k305gzyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqw99k8s7

2026-02-09T10:07:12+01:00

Weekend Tape Analysis

Clean liquidity grab: wick above last night's range, failing the 1H uptrend on the retest, then selling off.

Price now trading inside the anticipated consolidation range between Sunday's weekly close low and Thursday's daily low. Currently under 15m bearish trend.

Setup: watching for retests of the 30m and 2h bear trends.

Outlook: several weeks of sideways consolidation while Bitfluencers on Bitcoin Today lament their devs and liquidate airplanes for margin.

Nostr event nevent1qqs2p2zryadfjmpkucshl29ycmvf044p6xgctfaqhpuuagg7t8cl6cqzyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwk3yaue

2026-02-08T18:40:10+01:00

Waiting for Tonight's Close

The primary move appears complete—now tracking consolidation structure. Potential scenario: dead cat bounce to the W/Cl resistance level.

Focus: does tonight's close establish a consolidation range bounded by Thursday's close (lower) and tonight's close (upper)?
Market structure: Bears control all major trends. Bulls operating within a minor retracement trend above the 15m timeframe.

Nostr event nevent1qqs8aeahtwez9yh7dleplt4kasc30g4l7e3yjm2026aasuq0gq9q4cqzyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwtayj4v

2026-02-08T18:17:49+01:00

4H Bear Trend Channels & Bottom Timing

The 4H bear trends are extending through early May to July—the same window as the incoming Chairman transition. Changing these to purple for visual distinction: they're bearish trends but structured as channels, which warrants separate tracking.
This channel pattern may be telegraphing bottom timing.

Expectation: once price crosses above the 12H trend, the market will have established a bottom and begun structural repair of the bear market damage.

MVRV has broken the bull market support floor. Our plan is to start buying agnostically when the MVRV-z score closes below 4. Once a week every week until the score is over 13 again. Price can still drop another 50% before the MVRV-Z score closes at 2.6

Nostr event nevent1qqs0nrun5m7qxea20cgg6t6hgw7w8vp4uhrkv2ae4sh7va3n8v2490czyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwdv7rk4

2026-02-08T17:33:06+01:00

2022 vs Current Bear Market Structure

In 2022, price broke the weekly uptrend followed by weekly structure. That week delivered a flush similar to the recent action—setting a daily low on Thursday before rallying into the weekly close. The MVRV-Z score also broke below the bull market "floor" during this period.
Today's weekly low now sits 10% overhead. Key question: does tonight's close establish the upper bound for the next consolidation range? The range sizes are comparable.
The current bear market is replicating 2022's structure with striking precision. Likely explanation: absent retail participation, it's the same institutional participants executing similar playbooks. Epstein did not "unalive" your portfolio - keeping your keys with Coinbase did

I’d start with reading the Epstein files and determine if Jade ...

2026-02-06T17:19:46+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…vumu
_________________________

I’d start with reading the Epstein files and determine if Jade makes you jaded. Support Canadian you beautifully bearded freak of nature

Nostr event nevent1qqszsc67f5f2534fxzmmwymwmv5hv2nkgj0cjuzq6z5w69lekdzavaczyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwl4rnlh

2026-02-06T11:16:14+01:00

MEMO TO: Investors
FROM: [Market Breath and the Pause That Matters]
RE: Understanding Where We Stand

There's a rhythm to markets that's easy to forget in the moment but obvious in hindsight. Markets don't move in straight lines—they breathe.

A crash happens, panic selling exhausts itself, and then... nothing. Or rather, not nothing: consolidation, hesitation, the market catching its breath before deciding what comes next.
We saw this in 2022, and we may be seeing it again now.

The 2022 Parallel
In 2022, Bitcoin broke its weekly bull market trend and market structure in a violent move that felt like capitulation. The MVRV Z-Score tagged 8.7—a level that represented significant distress but not quite the full capitulation we'd see months later. What followed wasn't an immediate plunge to the lows. Instead, the market went sideways for four weeks. Not up, not materially down—just... sideways. Breathing.

This morning, the MVRV sits at 9.4. Practically the same level. The crash of February 5th—which dropped MVRV by 4.86 in a single day, has left us in remarkably similar territory to where 2022's initial breakdown paused.
The question isn't whether this is a coincidence. Markets don't care about coincidences. The question is: what does this positioning tell us about what might happen next?

The Context That Matters
Here's what makes this moment interesting: while Bitcoin has crashed, other major equity indices remain near their local highs. Everyone's waiting for the other shoe to drop. This isn't a synchronized selloff—not yet. Bitcoin moved first, hard and fast. The rest of the market is still deciding.

This asymmetry matters. If major indices follow Bitcoin lower, the cascade could be severe. If they hold, Bitcoin's decline might be more contained, a crypto-specific correction rather than a systemic unwind. We don't know which will happen, but the gap between Bitcoin's crash and traditional markets' stability is worth watching closely.

The Mechanics of a Bounce
Can Bitcoin catch its breath here? Technically, yes. Structurally, it's possible. In 2022, after tagging similar MVRV levels, Bitcoin managed a 20% bounce that retested the broken market structure before eventually continuing lower. That kind of move isn't impossible now—though it's worth noting that 20% from current levels would take us to roughly $78,000, all the way back to the weekly close low that just broke.
That's asking a lot. The Quarterly Pivot High sits at $71,000—closer, more realistic, but still a substantial bounce from $65,000. Technical levels matter not because they're magic lines on a chart, but because traders watch them, and when enough traders watch the same levels, those levels influence behavior.

The downtrend line—wherever it sits when price reaches it—represents the first real test of whether this is a pause or a reversal. First touch of a broken trendline after a crash is typically resistance. That's where conviction gets tested. If buyers can't break that trend, the message is clear: the breath is temporary, the decline isn't finished.

Time and Trend
Markets move in price and time, and right now, time matters as much as price. The 4h down trend suggests a consolidation period, perhaps up to four weeks. That's not a prediction—it's an observation.

The MVRV at 9.4 is still 6.8 points above the historical capitulation target of 2.6. We're closer to the end than the beginning, but we're not at the end.

For those managing risk, this suggests:

Any bounce to resistance (the downtrend, $71k, $78k) is likely a selling opportunity, not a buying signal
The next two to four weeks matter for understanding whether major indices will confirm Bitcoin's weakness

True capitulation likely still lies ahead, not behind us
The violent crash might have exhausted immediate selling pressure but didn't resolve the structural issues

The Broader Pattern
What we're watching unfold is the maturation paradox I've written about before. As Bitcoin grows, its normal corrections get better-supported (rising floors), but its true bear markets get worse (widening gap to capitulation). The floor rose from 9.18 MVRV in 2016 to 13.48 in 2020 to 19.59 now. But capitulation stays around 2.6 MVRV—meaning the fall gets longer and more painful each cycle.

We broke the floor on January 31st. We're now in that long fall. The February 5th crash accelerated the timeline but didn't complete it. Markets rarely go straight down, even in bear markets. They breathe. They consolidate. They give you time to think, to hope, to make mistakes.

This consolidation—if that's what we're in—is that breath. It's not safety. It's just time to prepare for what's likely still coming.

A Final Thought
Jesse Livermore used to say that "the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements." Right now, we're in a fluctuation within a larger movement. The larger movement is a progression from floor (19.59 MVRV) to capitulation (likely 2.6 MVRV). That progression is 60% complete.

The question for the next few weeks isn't whether Bitcoin will bounce—it probably will, at least modestly. The question is whether that bounce changes the larger pattern or simply provides an opportunity to position for what comes next.

Based on historical precedent, I know which way I'd bet. But I also know that markets have a way of surprising us when consensus becomes too strong. The 2022 analog is useful, but it's not a script. We wait, we watch, and we respect the possibility that this time might be different, even as we position for the probability that it won't be.

Market breath. Don't mistake that for recovery.

Patience will be rewarded, accumulate more dry powder, so you'll be able to swap it for maximum sats - HODL your keys, verify your transactions -

Stay focused for the time being, let everyone else argue about bottoms. We aren't even close to breaching the trend

I’ll zap to that!

2026-02-05T14:20:25+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…urz5
_________________________

I’ll zap to that!

Bah come on Neil. It’s bad enough the FUD is old but top notch ...

2026-02-05T14:18:09+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…qu4x
_________________________

Bah come on Neil. It’s bad enough the FUD is old but top notch memers need to keep it fresh 😆

Nostr event nevent1qqsd2kgkqa0zuuc53ewc8ntsqcnl447g2nk606zkgvtj73pz0w4yy4qzyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwkxv36a

2026-02-05T10:37:32+01:00

We are driving down the 30min trend hard. I have never seen gay'er fud in my life. If this is Kim Dot Comm FUDDED price action I'm disappointed in the market participants. You're retarded. How's your LTV by the way.

So happy there weren’t too many cameras around of me in the ...

2026-02-05T09:59:45+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…4uhd
_________________________

So happy there weren’t too many cameras around of me in the Navy 🥹

Analysis of Bitcoin's Maturation Paradox RE: When Growing Up ...

2026-02-04T21:18:28+01:00

Analysis of Bitcoin's Maturation Paradox
RE: When Growing Up Means Falling Harder

I've been thinking about the nature of maturation in markets, and specifically what happens when an asset class "grows up." Conventional wisdom suggests that as markets mature—more participants, deeper liquidity, institutional adoption—volatility should decline and corrections should become less severe. But what if the opposite is true? What if maturation creates the conditions for increasingly violent drawdowns, even as the asset becomes more widely accepted?

Bitcoin's on-chain data offers an unusual lens into this question. Unlike traditional markets where we infer sentiment from price, blockchain analysis gives us something closer to ground truth: we can see what holders actually paid for their Bitcoin and measure whether they're sitting on gains or losses. The metric that captures this is MVRV Z-Score—essentially, how far market cap has deviated from the aggregate cost basis of all holders.

The Pattern That Emerges
When you study Bitcoin's halving cycles, a consistent pattern emerges. During bull markets, corrections find support at what I'll call a "floor level"—a specific MVRV range where buyers consistently step in. This floor has risen dramatically:

2016 Cycle: 9.18 MVRV
2020 Cycle: 13.48 MVRV (+47%)
2024 Cycle: 19.59 MVRV (+45%)

This makes intuitive sense. As more capital enters at higher prices, the average cost basis rises. What constituted a "deep correction" in 2017 would barely register as a pullback in 2025. The floor is rising because Bitcoin is maturing.

But here's what's interesting: when these floors eventually break and true bear markets arrive, the bottom—what I'll call "capitulation"—stays remarkably consistent:

2016 Cycle: 2.59 MVRV (average of 20 worst days)
2020 Cycle: 2.69 MVRV (+4%)

An MVRV of ~2.6 appears to represent maximum pain—the point where the average holder is sitting on such severe unrealized losses that capitulation selling overwhelms all other considerations. This threshold doesn't rise with maturity. It's a psychological constant.

The Widening Gap
Now here's where it gets uncomfortable. If floors keep rising but capitulation stays flat, the gap between them must widen. And indeed:

2016: 6.59 MVRV point drop (floor to capitulation)
2020: 10.79 MVRV point drop (+64%)

In percentage terms, the drawdowns are worsening:

2016: -46.6% from floor to capitulation
2020: -55.1%
2024: Projected -63.5% if pattern holds

So we have a paradox: Bitcoin is maturing (higher floors, more institutional participation, regulatory clarity), yet bear markets are becoming more severe, not less. The very process of maturation—bringing in more capital at higher prices—sets the stage for worse crashes.

Time Compounds the Pain
There's a second dimension to consider: duration. The journey from floor break to capitulation is lengthening:

2016: 244 days (8 months)
2020: 508 days (17 months)

The time essentially doubled. This matters because drawdown severity × duration = total pain experienced by holders. A 50% drop over 8 months is psychologically different from a 55% drop over 17 months. The latter grinds away conviction, exhausts capital, and shakes out even patient hands.

Where We Stand
On January 31, 2026, Bitcoin's MVRV broke decisively below the established floor of 19.59, currently trading around 15.58. November's dip to 17.49 proved to be just a correction—it recovered quickly. This feels different. There's no bounce, no stabilization. The pattern suggests we're at the beginning of the capitulation process, not the end.
If historical patterns hold:

Target MVRV: ~2.7 (capitulation level)
Remaining decline: ~13 MVRV points
Timeframe: 8-17 months (September 2026 to June 2027)
Price target: Roughly -63% from the floor level

What This Means
I want to be clear about what I'm not saying. I'm not predicting Bitcoin will hit specific price levels or that the pattern must repeat. Markets don't follow scripts. Institutional buying could overwhelm the historical pattern.

New market structure could change everything.
What I am saying is this: the data suggests that Bitcoin's maturation process creates asymmetric risk. Bull market corrections are better-supported (rising floors), but true bear markets are worse (widening gap to capitulation). This is counterintuitive but consistent with what we see.
For long-term holders, this has implications:

Mature markets haven't eliminated severe drawdowns; they may intensify them
The time to capitulation appears to be increasing, not decreasing
What looks like "a correction" early on may be the start of something worse

Risk management matters more, not less, as assets mature

The Broader Lesson
There's something here about the nature of growth and risk that extends beyond Bitcoin. When an asset matures and attracts more capital at higher prices, you're not reducing volatility—you're compressing it. The periods of calm get longer. The drops, when they come, get deeper. More participants at higher cost bases don't stabilize markets; they raise the stakes.

Jesse Livermore understood this a century ago: "The market will do everything in its power to prove the majority wrong." As more people accept Bitcoin at higher prices, the conditions for a severe bear market improve, not worsen. The floor rises, the fall lengthens, and the crash deepens.

I don't know if this cycle will follow the pattern. Markets have surprised me before and will again. What I do know is that understanding the pattern—the widening gap between what's normal and what's possible—is essential for navigating what comes next.
Maturation doesn't mean safety. Sometimes it just means falling from higher up.

I can't accept that bitcoin will suffer a less severe bear market just because the bull market did not live up to expectation. I fully expect a price recovery into the next halving, the 4 year cycle is far from dead.

Good luck out there, hold your own keys, verify your transactions, and get your fiat stack at the ready - there will be blood

Nostr event nevent1qqsflp0jgd0v20e4xs34l3ep6jlad98rtcgdpk64jz9cda9ar8aaj8czyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwxgnqjl

2026-02-04T10:21:52+01:00

Price hitting 31K. This is brand new to me and I can't unsee it. I mean I feel no pain so far, and I feel left out. Well this chart makes me feel gross. It's a nice resistance to flip into support. People will say bitcoin is dead, what gives up almost 100K in nominal value... I love it... This is a Bitcoin Maxi kind of capitulation. MVRV score today is 16, deep value is in the green, everyone is selling at a loss. MVRV says deep value scores between a score of 2 and 7. 31,000k bitcoin is just a subjective target because it looks like previous resistance that was never re-tested. In terms of % drop it would be barely less than the previous bear market - Gary Cardone ain't ready for this mang!

Nostr event nevent1qqstr87c3c95yvumwmwrcng0mgvtj8p49mhtk6esur4935gh3yp46yszyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwf265tt

2026-02-04T09:57:09+01:00

I noticed last year that the Bull market had a problem late last year, and that it was an ugly looking head and shoulders, but the divergence in momentum solidified it for me. The target makes sense around 65K as a previous area of resistance, but man I like that 58K gang just because Denis' meme's are awesome. This is not my primary tool of finding what might be a bottom, it's just set my expectations from the bull market and 10/10 specifically. Q/PH means quarter candle pivot high

100%, I don't know the price or the time. I just recognize ...

2026-02-02T11:44:04+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…emp2
_________________________

100%, I don't know the price or the time. I just recognize the pattern of human emotions. all my chart is telling me to be patient and wait. Keep mining and stacking fiat, the time to convert to sats is coming. Is there risk in that, Yep. Government might cut off Bitcoin and Fiat, but I think that risk is low in the US. Much worse here in Canada. Some like to catch knives, others don't care and stack sats relentlessly. Everyone is allowed to have their own way. There's only 2 timeless rules I like. Hold your own keys, verify your own transactions. Do you have any good rules?

everything that Epstein touched is worthless, means that his ...

2026-02-02T10:04:42+01:00

everything that Epstein touched is worthless, means that his victims are too. And that’s just not true

Bobby says what? ...

2026-02-02T09:53:36+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…ykkv
_________________________

Bobby says what?

Bobby Clarke took the commies down baby! IYKYK

2026-02-02T09:51:07+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…9qxn
_________________________

Bobby Clarke took the commies down baby! IYKYK

Nostr event nevent1qqswce8heu7p8el30lq24y50wf80wnhdnjjfylnzh2uw40qs343nwnszyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwnalm9r

2026-02-02T09:38:05+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…wasq
_________________________

https://primal.net/e/nevent1qqsf67hqt0vuma40h2q0vauv3d9suw6fw2zjqdrvpprksf7vhhuhu4chsusce This is the shape of how you're feeling. It's not the nominal depreciation of the asset, it's the relentlessness of trend. If my analysis is right, 2026 looks more acute because there is less room for time projected into the future. That means we go down faster, harder but will we stay down for longer? I don't know.

The novelty of getting to pay more maybe

2026-02-01T23:32:02+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…de9r
_________________________

The novelty of getting to pay more maybe

Nostr event nevent1qqszmx364y26feewqg7wy34xr4xjr0u7w6hsxp84xsaf4k46kurznrczyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwnzs4kq

2026-02-01T21:47:31+01:00

Higher time frame momentum is nuked. 10% days are rare, But I still wouldn't be catching knives here. 71K looks inevitable under so much bearish trend on many time frames. I'd fad the gap if price can make it back. The AI Agent story that's coming out this week will be the reason you'll want to buy blood at the bottom. Agents will end the 4 year cycle, until then I think this bear market has some funds to serve up on a platter of silver. The LLM agents are telling me that KindlyMD and Semler Scientific are on the verge of being margin called. The tide is receding

Nostr event nevent1qqsrfjkfp6p6w7kkvpsauulwxmx3tgkl2xzrx6affk5keyw0pusekxgzyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwvejjkp

2026-02-01T17:33:09+01:00

Price is under trend, and violating weekly structure if price closes below 78,379$ in 5 hours. Not too far from a 3 month pivot high (71,320) where I would think there's a lot of support. 2026 is starting to look different that 2022.

Nostr event nevent1qqsp4044t9x3aetfekynycj7n938rhkw73d5rx0vqucdk66vz258c2gzyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwx65anx

2026-02-01T17:07:00+01:00

horizontal points of interest I'll be keeping my eye on. Watching the close on the weekly candle tonight to see if it makes a new structural low. Looking to see how price action follows through. In 2022 when we reached this area is was much the same price when side ways for a couple of weeks in a 10% range

Nostr event nevent1qqsf67hqt0vuma40h2q0vauv3d9suw6fw2zjqdrvpprksf7vhhuhu4czyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwpgyftm

2026-01-30T10:50:35+01:00

One last chart for a bit. With gold and silver doing interesting things. This cycle's trends while it rhymes, is just different. In a more face ripping way. I thought 2022 was more face ripping than 2018.

Nostr event nevent1qqs8s6mgda58z06jxu2gty4hre57j9ehgkkqvsfjkrxmyxrfkhf3jugzyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwux98ms

2026-01-30T10:42:04+01:00

NOSTR is where the Bitcoin Chads are at. Maybe you're selling premium, maybe you're taking loans. Maybe you're just earning bitcoin and hate everyone for not being as smart as you. I like chart art. My art says that if you're taking loans right now. I hope you can maintain your LTV for the next 2 quarters. Mike Alfred's 300K call is early

Nostr event nevent1qqspjxkuf7qcg363l54xf74t7rsmmu36ffk2dg426hrnm6p6elgx89szyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqw5396gs

2026-01-30T10:27:51+01:00

Market structure is the key to watching changes. Bitcoin broke weekly and now daily market structure. Add momentum and trend being in line with that change of structure is why I think we're in our next swing.

Nostr event nevent1qqspu5neszwmc2ls5c7aet56lv578nm3ejzysjjunp9fnae8g4zn8ygzyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwneeu03

2026-01-30T10:13:21+01:00

Chart is becoming a mess and I'm going to remove some time trends from lower time frames. I thought the bullish retracement would have provided a higher time frame down trend (required a more bullish retracement). That didn't happen. Rather price closed at a new weekly low. closed under the weekly trend for the first time in 3 years, retested and sold off. I extend these trends out as far as I can. Time wise that's where price could be by May of this year if the trend remains intact. In 2022 the 2nd leg down shared the same trend on the 12 and 4hr. This time the highest time frame I have is 4h - I've been eying the same areas of interest as Peter Brandt since the end of October. I am not calling a bottom from here. I'll call a bottom when we're at a bottom. I wish I started this on NOSTR months ago, but I've decided that I'm here now. I don't have to call turns, I already said market structure didn't support the bullish case. I'm here because i plan on taking loans using HODL HODL if it's useful and makes sense. Have you ever tried it? I played with it a few years back. The platform works as advertised, just a very limited hang out, not a lot of choice there. I think it's pretty cool, but you take on stable coin risk

Pretti should have read about Mr Cliven Bundy and how to take a ...

2026-01-28T11:07:49+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…v39g
_________________________

Pretti should have read about Mr Cliven Bundy and how to take a stand. Benjamin Franklin understood that it took a Posse "We must all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately."

Nostr event nevent1qqsxfe3c9hxhv62tejpuj775zyfn8rxqxtd9pn8kgmqjnzwyx98lpwqzyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwpsszqe

2026-01-27T10:20:37+01:00

A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online
payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.

Bitcoin and the Quiet Power of Not Needing Permission

People often argue about Bitcoin as if its success depends on convincing everyone else it’s a good idea. That’s understandable—we’re wired to think persuasion drives adoption. But most durable technologies don’t win debates. They quietly make themselves useful.

Bitcoin doesn’t ask for trust. It doesn’t care about credentials, intentions, or narratives. It works the same way on good days and bad ones, which is rare in finance. Most systems perform best when confidence is high and break when it disappears. Bitcoin does the opposite—it was designed for when trust is lowest.

Price matters to people because price buys freedom. Higher prices allow individuals to exit systems they don’t like, fund their own education, and take risks that compound over time. But price doesn’t matter to Bitcoin itself. The network settles transactions whether it’s fashionable or forgotten.

This distinction causes confusion. Some see institutional involvement as validation, others as corruption. Both miss the point. Institutions don’t define Bitcoin’s value; they adapt to it. They always have. That’s what institutions do when confronted with something they can’t control.

What’s most interesting is who won’t need to be convinced. Machines don’t respond to marketing. AI agents won’t debate monetary policy or care about social legitimacy. They’ll choose tools that are predictable, final, and globally interoperable. Bitcoin fits that description in a way few systems do.

In the long run, the market won’t care who explained Bitcoin best. It will care who used it when it mattered. And the quiet advantage of a system that doesn’t need permission is that it keeps working long after the arguments fade.

- Markets may fluctuate; settlement continues.

Fiat Bitcoinists are going to hate 2026 - I'm here to buy their tears in the streets when the hour comes

Nostr event nevent1qqsyk6kqhltvvq54dpgrv323fj9zpze7vdn6vd39fn2729qjfgx4jmczyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwaknvr7

2026-01-26T02:16:56+01:00

Was 97.9K the high for 2026? This week I'm going to watch to see how price bounced between the 1h and 12hr trends. It looks a lot like a falling wedge pattern is forming, which could be the pattern that sets up the next down trend. What's the play? Build a your cash position. Sell your extra chairs, get that OT. Work your ass off for the next 5 months so you can be a buy the blood in the streets. If a rally is produced from this wedge I'd definitely look to fade it

Nostr event nevent1qqs06skfh62mw5dklusc2jvq20mrcnpdnulujv52ugdmsy5veaz65yszyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqwdlek87

2026-01-26T00:53:20+01:00

Weekly is closing below the trend and the weekly low set by the first wave in the 2026 bear market. 2022 produced a second down trend on the 12h time frame. I was looking for that fractal coming out of this correction, but so far that has not materialized

Grace_Too gracetoo@nostrplebs.com Weekly uptrend from 2023: Being ...

2026-01-24T17:32:19+01:00

Grace_Too
gracetoo@nostrplebs.com

Weekly uptrend from 2023: Being tested
First potential close below since 2023
12hr: Bearish since Oct
Range: $87-99k
Liquidity: Being absorbed
Regime: NEUTRAL
Waiting for price appreciation to establish next downtrend anchor point. Until then, no major trend signal.

If this weekly support fails, expect the "Bitcoin is dead" headlines to return - The 4yr cycle is your friend to the end

The only editing I do to my trend lines is extending them. I ...

2026-01-23T11:08:56+01:00

The only editing I do to my trend lines is extending them. I think of them as heart lines because they’re very much alive

I’m neutral in my bias. Waiting to see if the 4 year was really ...

2026-01-23T11:02:43+01:00

I’m neutral in my bias. Waiting to see if the 4 year was really dead. I’ve been telling my friends that the S/R was the line in the sand. It was rejected, now price is trading below the weekly up trend. I’m still neutral as we’re in the trading range. We are in the B wave of an ABC correction from my perspective. Like 2022 I’m looking for a C wave to emerge. We are very close in time to finding out. I don’t think we just sell off from here, not yet, but it’s not looking favourable right now.

We are under a 1h down trend, and below the weekly uptrend but still range bound

Buying strength to me looks like a weekly close over 100k until then be patient and keep accumulating a cash position

I see so much garbage chart analysis it hurts. I’m not a ...

2026-01-23T10:49:16+01:00

I see so much garbage chart analysis it hurts. I’m not a trader, but I love charting Bitcoin. I told everyone I know, strangers included to buy in Jan 2023, I told them to HODL ever since. Now I’m ringing the alarm bell again, build up a cash position because I believe that we’re going to find a bottom again Q3 this year. Sorry to say, but the 4 year cycle has prematurely called dead, and this is great news. Here is my unique trend following chart. No one does charts like I do. You couldn’t copy me if you tried. I see a fractal pattern no one is talking about here it is on the weekly TF

Where’s your 51st state… we’ve got to be the best at this. ...

2025-12-29T12:03:08+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…4dvj
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Where’s your 51st state… we’ve got to be the best at this. I mean, we’re the best at something or other from what I’ve heard… wait… is this hate speech ?

“Increasingly normie” that’s where I had to tap out… ...

2025-12-28T15:49:16+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…8snz
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“Increasingly normie” that’s where I had to tap out… where is this place? I want to take a break over there

I heard just week in a spaces discussion that the US Gov would go ...

2025-09-09T21:48:44+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…kamq
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I heard just week in a spaces discussion that the US Gov would go “look aliens!” Rather than confront the debt markets lol… buddy was a prescient kidder for sure

What does the world look like after a 5th wave impulse move to ...

2025-04-16T13:32:37+02:00

What does the world look like after a 5th wave impulse move to 13% on the US10yr revisiting when all of this started in 1984

I’m not a pro, but I think we should give a different name to ...

2025-03-28T11:34:58+01:00

I’m not a pro, but I think we should give a different name to this chart pattern here on the ETHBTC since it’s ghey The Adam and Steve, so be a friend to the mETH heads in your circles and get them on Bitcoin. Friends don’t let friends mETH

Trump is spreading attention to this in Canada as well ...

2025-02-08T21:10:51+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…mcmh
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Trump is spreading attention to this in Canada as well

Every job where you provide value to someone and are able to save ...

2025-02-02T14:54:38+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…8ndn
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Every job where you provide value to someone and are able to save in bitcoin, is a Bitcoin job. The author of Man’s Search for Meaning said in the end that he saw it as being responsible. That’s how I see it, but I look at it in circles. Start with yourself, extend towards your family, and some can grow that to their community. I see this through my best friend, a veteran who retrained and became an electrician, mastered his craft, provided for his family, then started his own business that hired from within his community taking on apprentices and teaching the next generation.

When people see you thriving and want to know your secret tell them your story “It was me, doing XYZ and we did it on a Bitcoin Standard”.

Probably not super helpful, but that’s my two sats. Good luck brother

Look at how excited the plebs are about @npub1xr7…2gqh ...

2025-01-20T14:15:13+01:00

Look at how excited the plebs are about Iancarroll (npub1xr7…2gqh) introducing his audience to NOSTR! Ben’s getting zaps on top of Ian’s zaps! We’re going to have so much fun with words, meme’s and the new cultural movement that’s growing

quoting
note1xga…e8ft

Welcome to Nostr, Ian.

note10gu…xgze

@npub1xr7…2gqh putting the word out to his audience has me ...

2025-01-20T14:01:55+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…puvg
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Iancarroll (npub1xr7…2gqh) putting the word out to his audience has me bullish on human action. It is the most bullish thing I have seen today so far 8am EST

Nostr event nevent1qqsvw9kk42ap20c42x9dqsr33v07mkskjzuu9j63wwnta3kq8v5rfygzyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqw4yy8jj

2025-01-12T01:28:56+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…zxwu
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https://decrypt.co/94315/ethereum-infura-cuts-off-users-separatist-areas-ukraine-accidentally-blocks-venezuela

Your right, and we’re all seen as Cassandra’s for saying it. ...

2025-01-09T22:22:28+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…vj8p
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Your right, and we’re all seen as Cassandra’s for saying it. It’s as if they not only don’t care, but are also annoyed we’re pooping on their party. I only care about what my close friends and family do at this point

Is it a scam? Maybe that’s a flawed message, they lie for sure ...

2025-01-09T22:05:40+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…ys6a
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Is it a scam? Maybe that’s a flawed message, they lie for sure about decentralization, and lying is a scam. It’s not secure, to me decentralization means security. The rest is for the own nothing and be happy crowd right? Remember how they frozen all NFTs from Russian IPs after the war started in 2022. Wouldn’t have happened to Bitcoin, metamask you say? Well sorry to hear that eh buddy!

I’m new to primal, barely used DAMUS, but Im in now, and Im off ...

2024-10-03T01:29:03+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…xt4q
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I’m new to primal, barely used DAMUS, but Im in now, and Im off of Twitter. Seems to work tonight though

You gotta get zapped to start the revolution brother LFG! ...

2024-10-02T00:21:43+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…tlka
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You gotta get zapped to start the revolution brother LFG! #Bitcoin

"Bitcoin Splash Pad " nest is live! Come join 🤗 ...

2024-10-01T17:10:21+02:00

"Bitcoin Splash Pad " nest is live! Come join 🤗 https://nostrnests.com/naddr1qqjr2dfnxc6rvde395ex2cfs956xzerp94skvcfn94jrsdecv3nryv3hxyexzqg4waehxw309aex2mrp0yhxgctdw4eju6t09upzptg72w2l5svsq02yrz34vq4f4vjw8a7npkgprsr2wz5947ukdrq8qvzqqqrkvu79qj2j

I can’t send sats to you beautiful peeps ...

2024-10-01T01:03:34+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…s8ud
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I can’t send sats to you beautiful peeps

Je ne sats pas, ét pourquois? J’aime le bouche…. Franglaise

2024-10-01T01:02:09+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…s8ud
_________________________

Je ne sats pas, ét pourquois? J’aime le bouche…. Franglaise

Let’s talk baby! ...

2024-09-30T18:41:32+02:00

Let’s talk baby!

https://nostrnests.com/naddr1qqjrzv35xs6n2wph95un2dnz956rvcfh94snxerz95mrwenpxvmnjer9vsenxqg4waehxw309aex2mrp0yhxgctdw4eju6t09upzptg72w2l5svsq02yrz34vq4f4vjw8a7npkgprsr2wz5947ukdrq8qvzqqqrkvu0597kh

"Look who’s talkin’ Too" nest is live! Come join 🤗 ...

2024-09-30T18:38:42+02:00

"Look who’s talkin’ Too" nest is live! Come join 🤗 https://nostrnests.com/naddr1qqjrzv35xs6n2wph95un2dnz956rvcfh94snxerz95mrwenpxvmnjer9vsenxqg4waehxw309aex2mrp0yhxgctdw4eju6t09upzptg72w2l5svsq02yrz34vq4f4vjw8a7npkgprsr2wz5947ukdrq8qvzqqqrkvu0597kh

Is she tickling that mic’s ball sac with the other hand?

2024-09-08T11:52:54+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…d3jf
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Is she tickling that mic’s ball sac with the other hand?

It’s only a matter of time. Every day I see people screaming ...

2024-08-27T10:22:04+02:00

It’s only a matter of time. Every day I see people screaming for solutions like Bitcoin and NOSTR. Selling the idea’s of Bitcoin is hard, but in its own time freedom sells itself

I bought it (my respect for your continuous appreciation of it) ...

2024-02-24T20:06:36+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…ylhd
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I bought it (my respect for your continuous appreciation of it) but I’ve read 100 pages and was still struggling to get into the book… should I keep trying, because it feels like I got rugged lol

👀👀 hot take from the 90s… going “unplugged” is a ...

2023-11-04T09:00:51+01:00

In reply to nevent1q…3sc9
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👀👀 hot take from the 90s… going “unplugged” is a shitcoin, not a litmus test for if your band could “actually play”… Use more electricity at your rock show not less

Nostr event nevent1qqsvj7jd639rfgjag9mr0rn9p55szkmwsuzk0wg8aht62dhz076kqeqzyzk3u5u4lfqeqq75gx9r2cp2n2eyu0maxrvsz8qx5u9gttaev6xqws4fhch

2023-10-19T18:15:04+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…s6jx
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Lol so much WTaF going on with this one 🤣

2023-10-19T11:09:29+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…sgty
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Lol so much WTaF going on with this one 🤣