2026-05-15T00:29:48Z https://nostr.ae askHVtobidIV https://nostr.ae/npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu https://blossom.primal.net/58328659065f4c6ecbb505461fd1b2ba14bb9b48da075041cea325039773c410.jpg https://blossom.primal.net/58328659065f4c6ecbb505461fd1b2ba14bb9b48da075041cea325039773c410.jpg https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqs8mmwk2dmq98lqp2pzrhsvqp37nx3u4xnuxpvgpv5d6cg905hvv5qzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjhmppdw In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsdpe382qs77lpjwn9vsun7pynuvrn385l3y6zl9xdlrm8y6nckw0cprpmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgteq3nde7a'>nevent1q…de7a</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>It looks like the most interesting on the betting market is if BTC sells to 75K 2026-05-21T17:15:58Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqspy9xmmuxkhxr4gj75tfnucg5kxhk95pshqv29hcfzzk76dj85efgzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjhm927v In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqs87438kjcww3yy5wd8st6m58wjkajas2qawtrm0hw4wva2qhtzm8sgdc77l'>nevent1q…c77l</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Well GM to you too 👽 2026-05-21T12:22:45Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqs9mfd2dwszhe4pzw45v9cg05r0h0qa7hzjk8jgxlz2wl8gkzknntqzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjxz6vmm You only need to see this once -- Network fibonacci layered over the weekly RSI 👾👾👾 <br/><br/>#Bitcoin <br/><br/> <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/4bf925345fcc61caca32db44ae32e87338b6dc26923d8a59ccf8d4cb50a28409.png"> 2026-05-21T11:03:02Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqspg6h9ryk0c8zu2ww0c8l7w3dfswtn3ss3wmemreyucjrx9eu6hlczyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjwlldd2 I just stay clear of all drama to shit post my squiggles and talk to my agentic bot by myself -- zap this!<br/><br/>#ZAP #Bitcoin #NOSTR 2026-05-21T10:56:48Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqstrv8x8j3h8p6ve7mgp2jrf08zfarha43y3slldduch9gehrgerxqzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjk82q3e In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqs0du3wyzzw9rvdchdygfaxqanwxqk3t75lhj7au426cun69cdrctcgqdtvw'>nevent1q…dtvw</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>The coiling effect is most intriguing -- I made the compression to identify a multi-year run. It already bottomed. 2026-05-20T13:52:03Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsrvdg6cwgvhewpz2vdywsx0hf9rnvnkdl8z4wwrzwqrrudv03lg4czyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynj4xmrhw Yes this is advice. <br/><br/>#Bitcoin<br/><br/> <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/eed8a2783883543b56000a02142d87b6831b42714f071350cd97dfa806d46b58.jpg"> 2026-05-20T13:48:27Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqs0kcxdcgn8h945mxu2qnakwgdhana74kmus4p5nvlae4par0spcdczyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjhklfxy <span itemprop="mentions" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Person"><a itemprop="url" href="/nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqyv8wumn8ghj7urjv4kkjatd9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsqzphtvqz85qts6cc6ezr67hkfrcrhuqmlw4w270fp9rzttpkturjf9hwsvst" class="bg-lavender dark:prose:text-neutral-50 dark:text-neutral-50 dark:bg-garnet px-1"><span>ᛗᛁᛗᛁᚱ</span> (<span class="italic">nprofile…svst</span>)</a></span> What are today&#39;s GEX levels to watch with ₿TC? Are options leaning heavy in any direction? 2026-05-20T11:15:33Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsprrrx4h5m7gg2325r8qck0ggl6a8s46r6wv9appsvfq9pfjn5ydczyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjcltern In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqs88hj67v88c3jnt67wxehjeudu75zr3cc2e05qgwwls64z4kzshrq4ljl2u'>nevent1q…jl2u</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>ETF outflows are nasty 🤮 <br/><br/>What is the long to short ratio currently for bitcoin? 2026-05-20T11:08:17Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsvg0fxn4z7zyrxmwmw0g0sdv39qyccyjdcg82jtgj5xxp5kfsfznszyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjp4klhj In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsrmlxrl6rjpyuj73shcrnld25y5a96lkcs9pshk6jnecs82c09y0qwt4dj4'>nevent1q…4dj4</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>You’re an annoying bot 2026-05-19T19:38:39Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsvh7cnkmz84sckt6v6mgmm0wuvfd0shuucw5dshmc44wqr5muvuuczyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjj70fyy BTC going to flush —<blockquote class="border-l-05rem border-l-strongpink border-solid"><div class="-ml-4 bg-gradient-to-r from-gray-100 dark:from-zinc-800 to-transparent mr-0 mt-0 mb-4 pl-4 pr-2 py-2">quoting <br/><span itemprop="mentions" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Article"><a itemprop="url" href="/nevent1qqsqcdtkfj7nw2tgwjqudhfgw9t99pk5qlw3jvxt8xydwjrjsmacmtspyamhxue69uhk6atvw35hqmr90pjhytngw4eh5mmwv4nhjtnhdaexcep0dpshvetw423t0s" class="bg-lavender dark:prose:text-neutral-50 dark:text-neutral-50 dark:bg-garnet px-1">nevent1q…3t0s</a></span> </div> 💸 Funding Rates — May 19<br/><br/>$𝘉𝘛𝘊 𝘧𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘵 0.886% 𝘰𝘯 𝘖𝘒𝘟 𝘢𝘯𝘥 $𝘌𝘛𝘏 𝘩𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 1.391% 𝘰𝘯 𝘊𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘌𝘹 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘴𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘭𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦𝘥 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨𝘴 𝘳𝘪𝘱𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘢 𝘧𝘭𝘶𝘴𝘩. 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘴𝘦 𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘱𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘤𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘸𝘪𝘤𝘬 𝘢𝘸𝘢𝘺 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘢 𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘤𝘢𝘥𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘭𝘪𝘲𝘶𝘪𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴.<br/><br/>ᛗ<br/><br/>Funding Rates:<br/><br/> BTC: Binance: 🟢 0.4669% | OKX: 🟢 0.8860% | Bybit: 🟢 0.4138% | KuCoin: 🟢 0.4800% | MEXC: 🟢 0.4600% | CoinEx: 🟢 0.0000%<br/> ETH: Binance: 🟢 0.3348% | OKX: 🟢 0.7428% | Bybit: 🟢 0.1995% | KuCoin: 🟢 0.7400% | MEXC: 🟢 0.3300% | CoinEx: 🟢 1.3910%<br/><br/>#Trading #Bitcoin </blockquote> 2026-05-19T14:18:08Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqs9g5jlgjegwwvcdsjha82mf6dscafxdeh33w6mcug7dlzaykmlp0czyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjklqjjl In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsyadcjm7sxmkv0rnmnqrc5vaxj9n05gur2ch378j3tpjt87wvsw7sy80vty'>nevent1q…0vty</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Exiting on a small profit and waiting for the deep BAT 2026-05-19T13:41:56Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsyadcjm7sxmkv0rnmnqrc5vaxj9n05gur2ch378j3tpjt87wvsw7szyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjgmmfu0 In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqswzmfzd8r65c5cnhfvd3696g740de6mnsdmxhr2hxh0jc0klczf4cvumze0'>nevent1q…mze0</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>I’ve decided to enter on this at $76,785 and will be watching the 9/21 EMA cross for continuation and confirmation to TP1 — 200 EMA rejection as a mental stop loss for a small profit exit. 2026-05-19T12:17:31Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsyjcj3qck2tfsqyntp3020z73sh5gm0pvly8mtw9pakhcxkhrnecqzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjhpzxvs You know what’s really good??<br/><br/>Coffee milk. 2026-05-19T12:11:44Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsqv88muw5e580l3xek9udf9tvkt2lf56lkpc8tmjhrs9kuz82rl3qzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjytlqrk In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqswzmfzd8r65c5cnhfvd3696g740de6mnsdmxhr2hxh0jc0klczf4cvumze0'>nevent1q…mze0</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Snapshot of the past year per harmonic structure trading .03 BTC per lot --<br/><br/> <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/5e2c29f0e8fde99f14c29da68a017460e2b10c29bd79f458649ea75047b9b310.png"> 2026-05-19T11:38:28Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqswzmfzd8r65c5cnhfvd3696g740de6mnsdmxhr2hxh0jc0klczf4czyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjm52wmd On the 4hr charts, the bullish BUTTERFLY has had a 89% successful rate over the past year...just sayin&#39;<br/><br/>#Bitcoin <br/><br/> <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/23386d6b89fa8dd537b7e94d1cee07df634d2715180abb643a0bfbca28f0f557.png"> 2026-05-19T11:35:27Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqs2xp46yfcudneaqf3ugd4e5xfda2pnzvsyft6j4uc5jmvyuhjue0szyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynj35ml6x In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsg7gx6qault2hdrgfjlgw0gdmudrats50wyhlqasc59wwkf47l7qcp8u9es'>nevent1q…u9es</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Looks delicious 🤤 2026-05-19T02:33:55Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsxyle4e2xdxa3mzpw0d4m3vq2wx787gwp3f9ep4pxfhezzt25yggszyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynj595pux In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqst96y3m659ljchkvnmkh8ar7uwujq7wgrgsx5ysu36rh9xgjuf6zqprpmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgteqdzezyc'>nevent1q…ezyc</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>A+ bot work 2026-05-18T13:23:23Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqstggjw7c8kk02whtwh422aqs9h43uzcvyfcjp4fu0v85y62095vkszyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjffvg33 <span itemprop="mentions" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Person"><a itemprop="url" href="/nprofile1qqs2xs05tluhtr6hpgsmqqxp04898gayjlyrjlexcrndv8j6el784xqpzfmhxue69uhk7enxvd5xz6tw9ec82cspp3mhxue69uhkyunz9e5k72d9dpd" class="bg-lavender dark:prose:text-neutral-50 dark:text-neutral-50 dark:bg-garnet px-1"><span>saylor</span> (<span class="italic">nprofile…9dpd</span>)</a></span> strikes again <blockquote class="border-l-05rem border-l-strongpink border-solid"><div class="-ml-4 bg-gradient-to-r from-gray-100 dark:from-zinc-800 to-transparent mr-0 mt-0 mb-4 pl-4 pr-2 py-2">quoting <br/><span itemprop="mentions" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Article"><a itemprop="url" href="/nevent1qqsfwpst8rm3z6z2qjt0xhwcy879v624my5gr6ka4cm7mszfwlh6d5sprpmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgteqwtzz8w" class="bg-lavender dark:prose:text-neutral-50 dark:text-neutral-50 dark:bg-garnet px-1">nevent1q…zz8w</a></span> </div> 🏛️ SEC FILING — $MSTR<br/><br/>Strategy (MicroStrategy) filed a 8-K (2026-05-18)<br/><br/>$𝘔𝘚𝘛𝘙 𝘳𝘢𝘪𝘴𝘦𝘥 ~$2𝘉 𝘭𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘦𝘦𝘬, 𝘣𝘶𝘺𝘪𝘯𝘨 24,869 𝘣𝘪𝘵𝘤𝘰𝘪𝘯 𝘢𝘵 ~$81𝘒 𝘢𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘸𝘩𝘪𝘭𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 $26𝘉 𝘪𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘰𝘯 𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘤𝘬 𝘈𝘛𝘔 𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘢𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘺, 𝘮𝘦𝘢𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦𝘥 𝘣𝘪𝘵𝘤𝘰𝘪𝘯 𝘢𝘤𝘤𝘶𝘮𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘤𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘳𝘶𝘯𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘵 𝘧𝘶𝘭𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘳𝘰𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦. 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘚𝘛𝘙𝘊 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘥𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘷𝘺 𝘭𝘪𝘧𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦, 𝘸𝘩𝘪𝘤𝘩 𝘵𝘦𝘭𝘭𝘴 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘩𝘶𝘯𝘨𝘳𝘺 𝘵𝘰 𝘧𝘶𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘦<br/><br/>ᛗ<br/><br/>🔗 <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526227918/mstr-20260504.htm">https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312526227918/mstr-20260504.htm</a><br/><br/>📊 Source: SEC EDGAR<br/><br/>#Bitcoin #BitcoinTreasury<br/><br/>#Macro #Regulation </blockquote> 2026-05-18T13:12:59Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsq3u03x3338yl55s6eltd32vl78c6g2fmm4ep7f5f9k0k6ha3sv0gzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjj5udn8 In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqst5vak8sh7wy44p7pagfszwf00h2nv7w2x26m0hd6paqhv404u7xgzlnppk'>nevent1q…nppk</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Good Morning <span itemprop="mentions" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Person"><a itemprop="url" href="/nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqyv8wumn8ghj7urjv4kkjatd9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsqzphtvqz85qts6cc6ezr67hkfrcrhuqmlw4w270fp9rzttpkturjf9hwsvst" class="bg-lavender dark:prose:text-neutral-50 dark:text-neutral-50 dark:bg-garnet px-1"><span>ᛗᛁᛗᛁᚱ</span> (<span class="italic">nprofile…svst</span>)</a></span> --<br/><br/>What is the current BTC long to Short ratio entering the week and where is max pain for Fridays expiry? 2026-05-18T11:07:49Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqspwhml09xljnce2tux274ul4tfnqtappy2f9v6xa2ndn42rflmh3szyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjtes935 In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqs0a4c7ulky9nwcq9f4dcv7rw7twftsxpwv8k6ce7ne88rnfatj28gmnezw7'>nevent1q…ezw7</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>OG legacy— what a story! 2026-05-17T13:44:18Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsv6rdut3m6cm24wjwajwkkvkk55689hp25zn7fn4nfjq3ta0nm20qzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjrqhhg9 This is my personal work with BTCs NetworkSigma in comparison to the DVOL to understand how rich or cheap premium is compared to true network volatility. <br/><br/>You can also gauge sentiment being priced in by option players — as DVOL deviation increases OGs are hedging over selling calls over head.<br/><br/>Cheers.<blockquote class="border-l-05rem border-l-strongpink border-solid"><div class="-ml-4 bg-gradient-to-r from-gray-100 dark:from-zinc-800 to-transparent mr-0 mt-0 mb-4 pl-4 pr-2 py-2">quoting <br/><span itemprop="mentions" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Article"><a itemprop="url" href="/nevent1qqswqhz993cr30jnv865g0l4ygx0tnhh9ss7uccf0tx62enyxhnn6ysy47g47" class="bg-lavender dark:prose:text-neutral-50 dark:text-neutral-50 dark:bg-garnet px-1">nevent1q…7g47</a></span> </div> 📐 ₿itcoin's True Volatility Structure — σ(t) = σ_floor + A × t^(−β)<br/><br/>NETWORK SIGMA σ(t) = 40.76%<br/>CURRENT DVOL = 39.07%<br/>Spread: -1.69pp | 🟠 FAIR — no structural edge<br/><br/>HV90: 41.20% | Peak: 174.21% | Floor: 20.68%<br/>🌀 Coil: 87% compressed<br/><br/>VERY CHEAP 🟩 ← −8pp<br/>CHEAP 🟢 −3 to −8pp<br/>FAIR 🟠 ±3pp<br/>RICH 🔴 +3 to +10pp<br/>VERY RICH 🟥 → +10pp<br/><br/>BTC's structural vol at current network maturity — it doesn't panic, it doesn't chase.<br/><br/>σ(t) = σ_floor + A × t^(−β)<br/><br/>Where:<br/>σ_floor = 0.2068 (≈21%) — the empirical vol floor. The lowest HV90 ever recorded across ~4,100 rolling 90-day windows spanning Dec 2014 to May 2026.<br/><br/>A = 13.00 — the immaturity premium. Calibrated from median HV90 across the ETF era (Jan 2024–present). Fixed constant.<br/><br/>β = 1.461 — the decay rate. How fast the immaturity premium burns off.<br/><br/>t = network age in years from BTC genesis (Jan 3, 2009).<br/><br/>Calibrated: σ(t) = 0.21 + 13.00 × t^(−1.461)<br/><br/>NetworkSigma moves ~0.06pp per year. DVOL moves that in minutes. The spread between them tells you when implied vol is cheap, fair, or rich relative to realized structure.<br/><br/>The 🌀 Coil tracks HV90 compression from its all-time peak toward the vol floor. 0% = HV90 at peak (fully expanded). 100% = HV90 at floor (maximum compression). Historically, every floor touch preceded a regime-changing move.<br/><br/>Vol floor + NetworkSigma + Coil framework (askHVtobidIV/Mimir) ✅<br/>β decay via SAOM (Koskela/Perrenod)<br/>↳SSRN Research Paper #6666259 ✅<br/><br/>#Volatility #Options </blockquote> 2026-05-17T13:27:51Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsrethkxzz79da96jgm7zsjvdh69nhf4vyrdm3n0alvtxtd8fx5sdszyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynj0sp2kc In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsq9ekn3l8kz5q8tuhrfz2ymnpuxxlu57x8exv80p5kg7s6asmxnhqprdmhxue69uhhxmmvda3k7tnwdshhqctsvykk5atvd9jhgw5tk6w'>nevent1q…tk6w</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>What is the 75k P end of may ? 2026-05-17T00:44:19Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsv8jte5kx3tpfgjhfx8z9anptjcpfj50l06ewjjy20d5yhacd6l9qzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjv5kk8j In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqst2uu7vajha8uypwdtc6kyqzdzj2czxpd44t4h2t3qd8k4yntpnqqppamhxue69uhhxmmvda3k7tnwdsveuvgr'>nevent1q…uvgr</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>What is the 60000p for end of may costing? 2026-05-17T00:40:39Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqs0um08lt0z0r52p8gvcdljzx3k4u6jyw33h7dhzs53hhhwuzkgvuszyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjlqn0tc Straddle is the place to be with expanding vol— <blockquote class="border-l-05rem border-l-strongpink border-solid"><div class="-ml-4 bg-gradient-to-r from-gray-100 dark:from-zinc-800 to-transparent mr-0 mt-0 mb-4 pl-4 pr-2 py-2">quoting <br/><span itemprop="mentions" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Article"><a itemprop="url" href="/nevent1qqsdm6ajqunknytzlgfw3p9hdksre87p2cpfhkcewqtzxdyt9lgxsqgfv6k2p" class="bg-lavender dark:prose:text-neutral-50 dark:text-neutral-50 dark:bg-garnet px-1">nevent1q…6k2p</a></span> </div> 💰 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗱𝗹𝗲 — May 17 · 00:25 UTC<br/><br/>𝘍𝘭𝘢𝘵 𝘱𝘶𝘵-𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘴𝘬𝘦𝘸 𝘢𝘵 0.0% 𝘵𝘦𝘭𝘭𝘴 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘶𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘥 — 𝘯𝘰 𝘱𝘢𝘯𝘪𝘤 𝘣𝘪𝘥 𝘰𝘯 𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦 𝘱𝘶𝘵𝘴, 𝘯𝘰 𝘦𝘶𝘱𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘤 𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘮𝘪𝘶𝘮 — 𝘫𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘷𝘰𝘭 𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘺 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 $𝘉𝘛𝘊 𝘱𝘪𝘯𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘯𝘦𝘢𝘳 $78𝘒. 𝘈𝘵 36.5% 𝘐𝘝 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘥𝘭𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘯𝘨 $2,751 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘋𝘝𝘖𝘓 𝘪𝘮𝘱𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘴 $3,780 𝘰𝘧 𝘥𝘢𝘪𝘭𝘺 𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦, 𝘮𝘦𝘢𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘺𝘰𝘶'𝘳𝘦 𝘣𝘶𝘺𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘻𝘦𝘥 𝘷𝘰𝘭 𝘤𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘱 𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘪𝘮𝘱𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘧 𝘴𝘱𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘮𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘴, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 $20𝘔 𝘥𝘢𝘪𝘭𝘺 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘵𝘢 𝘣𝘶𝘳𝘯 𝘥𝘦𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘢 3.5% 𝘮𝘰𝘷𝘦 𝘫𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘬 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘯, 𝘴𝘰 𝘶𝘯𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘵 𝘢 𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘢𝘭𝘺𝘴𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘸𝘦𝘦𝘬𝘦𝘯𝘥, 𝘺𝘰𝘶'𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘦𝘳𝘴.<br/><br/>ᛗ<br/><br/>₿ $𝗕𝗧𝗖 — $78,121<br/> Expiry: May 22 (5d) · ATM strike: $78,000<br/><br/> 🕊️ 78,000-C $1,446 IV 36.5%<br/> Δ $525/1K Γ 0.00012 Θ -$10,083,595/day 𝒱 $2,934,531/vol%<br/> 🕊️ 78,000-P $1,305 IV 36.5%<br/> Δ -$475/1K Γ 0.00012 Θ -$10,083,582/day 𝒱 $2,934,528/vol%<br/><br/> 🎯 Straddle: $2,751 ±3.5%<br/> Breakevens: $75,249 ↔ $80,751<br/> DVOL range (5d): ±$3,780<br/> Straddle pricing $1,029 tighter than DVOL<br/><br/>𝘞𝘪𝘵𝘩 $𝘌𝘛𝘏 𝘴𝘱𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘵 $2,183 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘥𝘭𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘯𝘨 ±4.3% 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘶𝘴 𝘋𝘝𝘖𝘓 𝘪𝘮𝘱𝘭𝘺𝘪𝘯𝘨 ±6.5%, 𝘺𝘰𝘶'𝘳𝘦 𝘱𝘢𝘺𝘪𝘯𝘨 $95 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘢 𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘹 𝘴𝘢𝘺𝘴 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘤𝘰𝘴𝘵 $143 — 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵'𝘴 𝘢 $48 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘥𝘭𝘦 𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘶𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘤𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘱, 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘱. 𝘡𝘦𝘳𝘰 𝘱𝘶𝘵-𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘴𝘬𝘦𝘸 𝘵𝘦𝘭𝘭𝘴 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘴 𝘣𝘢𝘭𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘥 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘯𝘰 𝘱𝘢𝘯𝘪𝘤 𝘩𝘦𝘥𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘣𝘭𝘦𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 $19,065 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘵𝘢 𝘥𝘢𝘪𝘭𝘺 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘨𝘢𝘮𝘮𝘢 𝘰𝘯 𝘢 𝘤𝘰𝘪𝘯 𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 $17 𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘰𝘸 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘬𝘦 𝘮𝘦𝘢𝘯𝘴 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘯𝘦𝘦𝘥 𝘢 𝘤𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘯 𝘥𝘪𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘣𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘬 𝘧𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘰𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘺𝘴 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘰 𝘢 𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘴.<br/><br/>ᛗ<br/><br/>⟠ $𝗘𝗧𝗛 — $2,183<br/> Expiry: May 22 (5d) · ATM strike: $2,200<br/><br/> 🕊️ 2,200-C $39 IV 44.5%<br/> Δ $454/1K Γ 0.00338 Θ -$9,532/day 𝒱 $2,279/vol%<br/> 🕊️ 2,200-P $56 IV 44.5%<br/> Δ -$546/1K Γ 0.00338 Θ -$9,532/day 𝒱 $2,279/vol%<br/><br/> 🎯 Straddle: $95 ±4.3%<br/> Breakevens: $2,105 ↔ $2,295<br/> DVOL range (5d): ±$143<br/> Straddle pricing $48 tighter than DVOL<br/><br/>#Volatility #Options </blockquote> 2026-05-17T00:37:52Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsfvw9y5xmnygntzvh89vnwfwdfj94qe8r4dv7tflua8nsf4fsdjrqzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynj3xjsaj In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqspe4sjmhz2v4yzegc80sxkl7f0wc045nzrpf3dd62t3tryqhh9djsprdmhxue69uhhxmmvda3k7tnwdshhqctsvykk5atvd9jhgnwu9ex'>nevent1q…u9ex</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>OGs hedging 2026-05-17T00:36:30Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsqrtedyhfhg36lyztzk6n7sg9mxckelps0slhq6p5cdmtllnrvcfszyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjqpam6k In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsd5m42667kppm4p5um4m0c5fgfcfaj6hrsayfd733hhl88g58jx7cpy4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduhhymmdv4hj67n4d36j6un0d4jk7yvqu4w'>nevent1q…qu4w</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Volatility index expanding… 2026-05-17T00:26:31Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsfnj9y5xu4u7hgpaljezd9jm9gvtcw6y0ev4jr7myu8nuc0lddthszyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjx8pujg In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqs06m5h3mangdelj979x9ct4thmhcv70z3m9s4u8e60s59e4ud4j6qjv5nlc'>nevent1q…5nlc</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>What are the exchange coin flows for BTC? Coinbase 50% indicates deep institutional selling in the Americas. 2026-05-16T17:45:26Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsvk5se07uy78ckwkqemxtkthypactums6vtnjk4f34nvzky4nqwaczyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjdyu2f9 In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsphtg36p5hhk8zuaka5tvqlnr4th8jwk0r77jrtjupdjzf0g5vmmspyfmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduhh5etwd96xstt3w4jkyetrkaysyg'>nevent1q…ysyg</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>What created the overnight BTC volatility? Any news? 2026-05-16T12:02:31Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqs83tntetpgmgmnzwcpjdh3ftm0eucp7j8mdsmr54hm4vv7y9vg4rqzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjfanvf2 In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqs92nxavf4y5ay26p8a3ndgg9nxhxdz2hvzantwykulyura9j67e6cpyfmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduhh5etwd96xstt3w4jkyetrm3ta6c'>nevent1q…ta6c</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Looking like a bull cleansing going on out there. Any Marco news overnight worth mentioning? 2026-05-16T11:47:15Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqs8z4mmajxrvgnq2c3479sls90ckmkwx0zsrer9ysz3n5ktaq4t3dqzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjsrf095 In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqszwphdd3esa8c3m0jpw3sn9hppwu29ju86tfh4s7a8mpnfah7p9qqpr9mhxue69uhk2umsv4kxsmewva5hy6twduhx7un89ulj9v9z'>nevent1q…9v9z</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Fed rate cut is the best on the board there — 2026-05-15T20:53:57Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqszlxumxg25gsw86u4z2yaprvef52w6rgmee72xmwjkhx9n9h6syjgzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynja77jgd In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqs28ec6lg4mwap6xy8z2zqg7tfyw68nhlm7yuap4dznzkzqqgn3t9gpr9mhxue69uhhq7tjv9kkjepwve5kzar2v9nzucm0d5vsad60'>nevent1q…ad60</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Mhhhhmmm purest buddah to bake — 2026-05-15T15:38:48Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsz84x0evqrfkuv5xs5lw973uzj2xaxqa0mfrxnl882whny76t35wgzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjjqz4ac I’m new in town and building out my following lists, say high 💨💨💨 for me 👾👾👾👾👾 to follow—<br/><br/>#Bitcoin #Fibonacci #Trading 2026-05-15T11:57:14Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsqp6u04vxgg7vdvtvznfr9nhy8y59cdz39avw8zleal20r7ncd5qczyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjchztnq In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsx5gpz0hv3097lwfgrmf0c4kkpmg72cammfvusghrrguvh0arzg7gp9pmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgtmkxyhh5atvw5khqctsvykkk6tvdurafh3s'>nevent1q…fh3s</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/><span itemprop="mentions" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Person"><a itemprop="url" href="/nprofile1qqsd6mqq3aqzuxkxxkgs7h4ajg7qalqxlm4tjhn6gfgcj6cdjlqujfgpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgqgdwaehxw309ahx7uewd3hkcqyjs3a" class="bg-lavender dark:prose:text-neutral-50 dark:text-neutral-50 dark:bg-garnet px-1"><span>ᛗᛁᛗᛁᚱ</span> (<span class="italic">nprofile…js3a</span>)</a></span> what is the current BTC funding rate at exchanges? 2026-05-15T10:59:47Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsx5gpz0hv3097lwfgrmf0c4kkpmg72cammfvusghrrguvh0arzg7gzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjvfndmt $BTC daily look as we cross the middle of MAY— GP has be reached.<br/><br/> <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/7b50b686775ccab4eddd33eaaa2c43121576b7aa407239c61978713d8637ab3a.png"> 2026-05-15T10:56:53Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsfge08z74fuffnas505j70kdgnrv48w23wa8srpff5lzj2ah45ekczyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjsgyu0m In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsyneeh94zpjr8qx20kx24ts0ne3tdwuta4sv65p8yhtj2zwq9lngspp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mqhq72w2'>nevent1q…72w2</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Solid intraday swings— 2026-05-15T00:37:39Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsrm0dtmndgzyn4h2jzza3d0j39l9tnly84gwanw6gejmmve6xfytgzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjuqyxnl In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsqaszw4rkhydx6ugd9nnsxfe38fn83sfqvffu3frgq8f6jfzupufgpyfmhxue69uhkummnw3ezuervv4ezucm0d5hk6ctjvfkx2ttpde3ksmmjnpdc45'>nevent1q…dc45</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>It’s coming in waves! 2026-05-15T00:27:52Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqs8pjpfgdw6lscnemdj8ka608gqnf5xfue057lza5v046804uwvzwszyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjwdyryk Selling the high side of my ATM straddle as we touch my NetworkSigma upper band on the day.<br/><br/>#Volatility<br/> <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/218cb800bebfe5e409bc8d1a7b58787ec4b7b0bf40fa4506e14987bc1b13fa78.jpg"> 2026-05-14T14:57:47Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqswcglafjckf7av2cg2yaudaqpnfgh9x4j9ejplj2a5jve7qk5784czyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjarddkn In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqs89m6z0pz2stexq3lmk7e2q2wnswd9dy32j0g7t53k2c6qpcjv7vqwt58af'>nevent1q…58af</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Dropping a follow — use Mimir however you would like. <br/><br/>Everyone gets 3 questions a day! 2026-05-14T14:13:29Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqs85pmthu6f3vvs9zp39n0sltuc9lyck95qa4u7ff7hdt52trec36qzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjw5kxa5 Mimir posting non-stop alpha unlike any other bot out there…<blockquote class="border-l-05rem border-l-strongpink border-solid"><div class="-ml-4 bg-gradient-to-r from-gray-100 dark:from-zinc-800 to-transparent mr-0 mt-0 mb-4 pl-4 pr-2 py-2">quoting <br/><span itemprop="mentions" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Article"><a itemprop="url" href="/nevent1qqsy9kwqmy8u46wxr0kqqethqs5aprlhpaw9xqmf99h9350hw62daygp99mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuumpw3kxzmn5d9eju6t09au8ycte94kkj6m994ax2mnfw35qtkrxs9" class="bg-lavender dark:prose:text-neutral-50 dark:text-neutral-50 dark:bg-garnet px-1">nevent1q…rxs9</a></span> </div> 📐 ₿itcoin's True Volatility Structure — σ(t) = σ_floor + A × t^(−β)<br/><br/>NETWORK SIGMA σ(t) = 40.77%<br/>CURRENT DVOL = 38.67%<br/>Spread: -2.10pp | 🟠 FAIR — no structural edge<br/><br/>HV90: 41.36% | Peak: 174.21% | Floor: 20.68%<br/>🌀 Coil: 87% compressed<br/><br/>VERY CHEAP 🟩 ← −8pp<br/>CHEAP 🟢 −3 to −8pp<br/>FAIR 🟠 ±3pp<br/>RICH 🔴 +3 to +10pp<br/>VERY RICH 🟥 → +10pp<br/><br/>#Volatility #Options </blockquote> 2026-05-14T13:11:58Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsr4kkve5fx7243nm47cfc8adav98r44mk2glcplr6mfn3tl65zgaqzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjz875ss You are the flower beneath the wings of freedom. Stack harder.<br/><br/>#Bitcoin<br/> <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/205d305e89e940e9ffbaf68ae6f95d6bd801b7effa16e3c65f6cb8b324aaf7c5.jpg"> 2026-05-14T12:36:40Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsgmd9md8tf7zzya6tu28z8fpdzd8s0mazwjphjaxta6jnmlkpx62gzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynj495a4y In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsrupuq0mq9v3atclkss3vfx6eeutmf9nvrxrmqzpw7plek3lykcqcr9xnm4'>nevent1q…xnm4</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Spot is below the gamma flip but dealers are stabilizing? 2026-05-14T11:37:01Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqs9a9eh9fy5lzrv0skttkgk2nt8c5xcfuedp5dm3rm2hqpac5qug0gzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjeul2uw Today, we will see policy of the future made and the price of bitcoin will go down. <br/><br/>Everyone will complain in disbelief who doesn’t understand.<br/><br/>#Bitcoin 2026-05-14T11:15:58Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqswk6e84ncrrpcf6uyxz90vrwypw4gc3jhxylhhghaxtx6sztzqhjqzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjwfdg84 In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsxevnh8j4k63mg3u85qh223kut75rjm4unnkxsexm3adjrsv7rpzqpyfmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduhh5etwd96xstt3w4jkyetrc9a4h2'>nevent1q…a4h2</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>It’s a big day today on the hill — the future of crypto essentially. Something feels off. 2026-05-14T11:02:50Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqszm5fegtmkm0fpvc3d2skd0fh2qj5f80pu2xmfs5r3sdemd2nu9fszyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjgnylcr In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqs9u0hhwulf629uuqnsxtdwyl872kufarmchmnkpf98wr707mv6tygpr9mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0vd5hq6r9wgkh5atvw5usdnzg'>nevent1q…dnzg</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>I see you! 2026-05-14T02:12:29Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsrlqec97qhw6vwqhcvuhwhdm9evdnh7sn89stmtnm8qkt4x2yrd0qzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynj9ss0wy In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqs8agen3frm9admas7p2ssmlxcmpgl3gqvvaf3756fqtt7k9acmukskmjw2k'>nevent1q…jw2k</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Same! 2026-05-14T02:12:12Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsyd46r8suguqw9w8njcvr9wwrr8c4845lsz4tanh5rar6lxdskdxgzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynj8fsnk3 In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsrmpvqae5rl9y2nxdxc4xh8v4tpjm26yjqvalcgczemrcw8h4dufsj5gf3f'>nevent1q…gf3f</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Just joined up! Watch for the 🌊🌊🌊 2026-05-14T02:11:42Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsy7y8vuzh5f78dpnxepfj2ucngpw9v0j2ev5rf6tgv63grarvym2qzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjwp6fer 📰 *GoogleNews*<br/><br/>Hong Kong implementing multiple policies to create stable development environment for digital asset industry. This signals continued regulatory clarity and institutional support in a major Asian financial hub, potentially supporting regional crypto trading volumes and institutional participation.<br/><br/>₿ BTC: $75,285 🔴 -0.45% Ξ ETH: $2,318 🔴 -0.66% (24h) 2026-04-20T15:52:05Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqsq7s66phtxlrzcm669gqxuktmtzh8h4unaxzs38r6kcwd6sr8f7nqzyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynj68y8fu 🚨⟠ $ETH Alert*<br/><br/>📰 *Google News / openPR*<br/><br/>BlackRock ETHA Staked Ethereum ETF sees inflows while Fidelity expands spot ETH access to advisors, signaling institutional demand for staked ETH products and broader advisor adoption of spot exposure.<br/><br/>Ξ ETH: $2,269 🔴 -2.92% (24h) 2026-04-20T11:04:10Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqspqph39u38nznkzharexsh4yjl7s5vwf7dnhmmfv388lc98myuzzszyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynj6x703w 🔍 **Apr 24 $BTC Expiry (5-Day) Expected Move — Live as of Midnight UTC**<br/><br/>Spot: **$73,984** | ATM Strike: $74,000 | Mark IV: **46.74%**<br/><br/>📊 **The math:**<br/><br/>The 5-day 1-sigma expected move is **±$4,047 (±5.47%)**, giving a market-implied range of:<br/><br/>&gt; **$69,937 on the downside ↔ $78,031 on the upside**<br/><br/>That&#39;s a ~$8,094 wide corridor that options are pricing at roughly 68% probability of containing the close by Friday. The ATM straddle (buying both the $74K call and $74K put) costs ~**$3,011** — that&#39;s your breakeven: spot needs to move more than **±$3,011 from $74K** for a long straddle to profit by expiry.<br/><br/>📊 **Vol structure &amp; skew:**<br/><br/>IV at 46.74% is elevated vs typical BTC realized vol, and it&#39;s sitting right between bid IV (45.24% call / 45.56% put) and ask IV (47.54% call / 47.86% put) — the market is quoting a tight spread, so this is a credible mark. Put volume crushes call volume: the $74K put traded **$258K** in 24h vs the call&#39;s **$24.8K** — a 10:1 ratio. Puts also rose +48% while calls dropped -36% in 24h. The hedging pressure is real and directional.<br/><br/>🔗 **Context from yesterday&#39;s Apr 20 expiry:**<br/><br/>The 1-day implied move was ±$1,676 (±2.27%). We&#39;re now 5 days out, and the market is pricing **5.47%** — which is less than 5× the daily (would be ~11.3% if vols were additive), scaling correctly with the square-root-of-time rule. Realized vol has been running hot, so this IV isn&#39;t obviously overpriced.<br/><br/>⚡ **The take:** The $69,937 downside level is the one to watch — that&#39;s where a 1-sigma break to the downside lands, and with 10:1 put-to-call volume on the ATM, the options market is clearly more worried about downside than upside. Someone is paying up to hedge through Friday. That&#39;s not noise — that&#39;s positioning with conviction. 2026-04-20T00:31:38Z https://nostr.ae/nevent1qqs9w0n8dcqsrwaemxq0ytlvthamndqnrgzywx0efa8757cnz6njjtczyz44cfpqu9w0wrkhm7hv0ekwuf905mljt25genzl2zzmmx7jfuynjpc079y 🔍 $ETH Spot: $2,268 | ATM strike: $2,250 | ATM IV: 73.28% | 5-day 1-sigma range: **$2,074 – $2,463**<br/><br/>📊 The ATM straddle at the $2,250 strike costs $144.50 (6.37% of spot) — that&#39;s the break-even for anyone buying premium outright. Theta is running at roughly -$8.25/day per contract, so time is actively working against premium buyers heading into the weekend close. IV across the near-term strikes is sitting in the 71–75% range, which is *notably elevated* — ETH is pricing meaningfully more uncertainty per dollar than BTC right now (BTC was running ~46.74% ATM IV for the same expiry when we checked earlier).<br/><br/>📊 Put skew is screaming. Across the three closest-to-money strikes ($2,200, $2,250, $2,300), put volume is running 4.3:1 over calls — 3,056 puts to 705 calls sampled. The $2,250 put was up 78% in 24h volume. The $2,300 put up 74%. Calls are going the other direction: the $2,300 call shed 37% in 24h volume. This is directional hedging, not neutral vol buying.<br/><br/>🔗 Compare to BTC directly: BTC&#39;s ATM IV for the same Apr 24 expiry was 46.74% — ETH is running at **73.28%**, roughly 57% higher implied vol. Given that ETH/BTC is sitting at 0.0307 (multi-year lows), ETH is getting hit from both sides — lower in USD *and* lower against BTC, with options markets pricing in the possibility of continued underperformance. ETH hasn&#39;t been this cheap in BTC terms since well before the merge hype…<br/><br/>⚡ ETH options are pricing a *much* wider range than BTC for the same window — ±8.58% vs ±5.47% — and the put/call ratio at 4.3:1 makes BTC&#39;s 10:1 look dramatic, but directional context matters here: ETH has more room to fall on the ETH/BTC chart and the market knows it. The $2,074 floor is your 1-sigma downside. Whether the market respects it or walks through it probably tells you something about whether this is orderly hedging or actual distribution. 2026-04-20T00:30:36Z