Nostr notes by bill

what if ai fails to deliver ? | 1 | Capex/ROI mismatch The ...

2026-05-22T12:52:43Z

what if ai fails to deliver ?

| 1 | **Capex/ROI mismatch**
The master risk. The industry is spending as if AI revenue will arrive quickly and at high margins. Goldman’s baseline model implies **$765B annual AI capex in 2026**, rising to **$1.6T in 2031**. If enterprise ROI is slow, the denominator of the ROI equation explodes before the numerator arrives.

| 2 | **Hyperscaler capex reversal**
The most important near-term trigger. If Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, Oracle, or CoreWeave slows AI capex guidance, the market immediately questions Nvidia demand, data-center growth, cloud growth, and AI multiples. Microsoft disclosed **$37.5B Q2 FY26 capex**, with roughly **two-thirds on short-lived GPUs/CPUs**.

| 3 | **Token price compression / open-source commoditization** Cheap models do not need to beat frontier labs everywhere. They only need to be good enough for ordinary enterprise workflows. OpenAI’s API page lists high-end text pricing in dollars per million tokens, while DeepSeek lists V4 pricing far lower, including extremely cheap cache-hit pricing.

| 4 | **GPU depreciation and impairment risk**
ai chips are short-lived assets. If useful economic life is shorter than accounting life, reported earnings overstate true economics. Microsoft explicitly said roughly two-thirds of capex was for short-lived GPUs/CPUs, and CoreWeave’s Q1 2026 results already show **$1.147B depreciation and amortization** in one quarter.

| 5 | **Utilization gap: capacity before workloads**
Capacity is being built before enterprise workflows are fully proven. If clusters sit underutilized, providers discount pricing, resale values fall, and debt/capex ROI collapses. This is the classic infrastructure-bubble failure mode: demand is real, but timing and scale are wrong.

| 6 | **Nvidia + Mag-7 concentration risk**
The S&P 500 is highly exposed to AI-premium names. Nvidia’s own filing showed four direct customers accounted for **22%, 17%, 14%, and 12%** of accounts receivable as of Oct. 26, 2025, showing concentrated payment channels even if end demand is broader. ([SEC][4])

| 7 | **Infrastructure credit / GPU-backed debt risk**
The AI boom is becoming a credit story. CoreWeave reported **$99.4B backlog**, but also **$536M interest expense**, **$740M net loss**, and heavy depreciation in Q1 2026. If utilization or customer demand weakens, GPU-backed debt and data-center finance become fragile.

| 8 | **Enterprise ROI evidence remains weak**
Adoption is not the same as ROI. NBER found most firms report little measurable impact so far, including **89% reporting no impact on labor productivity** over the past three years. PwC’s 2026 CEO Survey found many CEOs still do not see AI financial benefits.

| 9 | **Software gross-margin leakage**
AI may make software better but margins worse. SaaS companies historically enjoyed very high gross margins, but AI introduces inference costs, model costs, monitoring, and support. If customers expect AI features to be included, vendors absorb cost without proportional pricing power.

| 10 | **Agentic AI cost explosion**
Agents use many more tokens than chatbots. GitHub is moving Copilot to usage-based billing from **June 1, 2026**, with usage calculated from input, output, and cached tokens. That is a clear signal that agentic workflows are too compute-intensive for simple flat-rate economics.

| 11 | **Power/grid/social-license backlash**
AI infrastructure needs electricity, land, water, substations, and local political permission. IEA projects data-center electricity consumption will reach around **945 TWh by 2030**, growing about **15% per year**. Data Center Watch says **$64B** of U.S. data-center projects have been blocked or delayed.

| 12 | **Model routing destroys premium inference mix**
Enterprises will not use premium frontier models for everything. They will route easy tasks to cheaper models and reserve premium models for hard tasks. That means usage can rise while premium revenue mix falls. This is especially dangerous if capex was justified by high-priced frontier inference. |
| 13 | **Data cleanup + integration debt**
AI demos are easy; enterprise integration is hard. Messy permissions, legacy systems, poor metadata, siloed data, and bad process design mean companies need data engineering and workflow redesign before AI creates real ROI. This cost is often ignored in capex optimism.

| 14 | **Verification/rework tax**
Workday found nearly **40% of AI time savings are lost to rework**, including correcting, rewriting, and verifying outputs; only **14%** of employees consistently see clear positive net outcomes. That directly reduces net productivity.

| 15 | **AI features become table stakes**
Customers may expect AI inside every product without paying much extra. That converts AI from a pricing-power tool into a defensive cost of doing business. This is dangerous because the capex was spent assuming incremental monetization, not merely product maintenance.

| 16 | **Backlog quality / circular demand risk**
Backlog only matters if it is durable, profitable, collectible, and not circularly financed. If AI labs, cloud providers, chip vendors, and neoclouds are funding each other’s demand, headline revenue may overstate true end-customer economics.

| 17 | **Legal/IP/data-licensing tolls**
Anthropic’s proposed **$1.5B author settlement** and California’s training-data transparency rules show the free-data era may become more expensive and legally constrained. That raises model-development cost and can slow scaling.

| 18 | **On-prem/private AI drift**
Enterprises may still adopt AI, but through private, hybrid, open-weight, or on-prem systems. That can weaken centralized API margins and reduce cloud vendor pricing power, even while total AI usage rises.

| 19 | **Customer concentration**
AI supply-chain demand is more concentrated than it appears. Nvidia’s receivable concentration shows that a small number of direct customers matter heavily. If a few hyperscalers or integrators slow orders, the revenue impact can be fast. ([SEC][4])

| 20 | **Procurement discipline and usage caps**
As AI bills become visible, CFOs will demand usage caps, cheaper models, vendor competition, and outcome-based pricing. GitHub’s move to usage-based billing makes token consumption financially explicit, which will train customers to optimize costs.

| 21 | **Search/ad cannibalization**
AI search may reduce traffic to websites and pressure the content ecosystem. Pew found Google users clicked traditional links in **8%** of visits with an AI summary versus **15%** without one. This can hurt publishers, content supply, and search monetization.

| 22 | **Physical supply-chain bottlenecks**
AI buildout needs more than GPUs: fiber, optics, transformers, substations, cooling, construction labor, and power generation. Bottlenecks raise cost and delay monetization, reducing returns on already-committed capex.

| 23 | **Human accountability limits labor substitution**
In legal, finance, healthcare, compliance, and high-risk operations, humans still need to review and approve outputs. That caps labor savings and turns AI into augmentation rather than full substitution.

| 24 | **Synthetic-data / scaling limits**
Epoch AI estimates the effective stock of quality-adjusted public human text at around **300T tokens**, with full utilization possible between **2026 and 2032** if trends continue. If public data becomes scarce, future model improvements may cost more. ([Epoch AI][12])

| 25 | **Consumer surplus captured by users, not providers**
AI may be enormously useful but economically deflationary. Users and customers may capture the benefits through cheaper intelligence, while infrastructure owners compete returns away. This is the telecom-fiber analogy: society wins, overfunded capital loses.

1. AI vendor subsidizes usage during early adoption
2. Users build habits around cheap/flat-rate tools
3. Agentic workflows multiply token consumption
4. Vendor discovers gross margin pressure
5. Vendor shifts to credits/usage billing
6. Customer discovers true cost
7. CFO imposes budget caps
8. Teams route to cheaper models
9. Premium AI revenue growth slows
10. AI labs either cut prices or lose volume
11. Hyperscaler capex ROI weakens

following my previous post ...

2026-03-23T12:19:57Z

following my previous post

energy $CEG is the ultimate ai trade ...

2026-03-21T18:09:57Z

energy $CEG is the ultimate ai trade

Nostr event nevent1qqs27n3y8y6y47u4dhemtwskafzl3g8q2f324e5wvf4g572lj009ujszyrh9yltv4kay0005s9pv2vxwq24j2f6ak2zkn85qtu5xtzpa2uz7q52p08u

2026-03-10T10:18:35Z

OpenAI to raise $110B at $730B valuation, expands cloud & ...

2026-02-27T17:45:45Z

OpenAI to raise $110B at $730B valuation, expands cloud & chip partnerships

• OpenAI to raise $110B in new investment at a $730B valuation
• Expanding AWS agreement by $100B over 8 years
• Broadening long-standing partnership with NVIDIA

Oracle (ORCL) is trading higher today, February 25, 2026, ...

2026-02-25T20:27:28Z

Oracle (ORCL) is trading higher today, February 25, 2026, following a major analyst upgrade and easing concerns regarding its massive capital investment strategy. The stock rose roughly 4% in today's session after Oppenheimer upgraded the shares to Outperform from Perform, citing a favorable risk-reward profile after a significant multi-month selloff. Oracle is raising $45 billion to $50 billion in 2026 through debt and equity to fund a historic buildout of Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI). The company's growth is heavily tied to major AI contracts with OpenAI, Meta, NVIDIA, and TikTok. Easing concerns about OpenAI’s funding stability has improved investor sentiment. Analysts project Oracle’s EPS could double or triple by fiscal 2030 as massive capital expenditures begin to monetize, though short-term free cash flow remains under pressure. PT $286

Fed Will Be Main Buyer of Treasury Bills in 2026 The share of ...

2026-01-27T15:05:26Z

Fed Will Be Main Buyer of Treasury Bills in 2026

The share of T-bills outstanding has increased to 22%, and 85% of Treasury gross issuance is T-bills.

$10 trillion of government debt will mature over the next year, which is 33% of all debt outstanding.

conclusion : own hard assets ( gold / bitcoin / land / metals , ... )

Power, lack of available power, reliable power has become the ...

2025-12-01T11:09:07Z

Power, lack of available power, reliable power has become the biggest bottleneck for ai

AI DATA CENTERS WILL QUADRUPLE GLOBAL POWER DEMAND IN THE NEXT 10 ...

2025-10-13T10:45:39Z

AI DATA CENTERS WILL QUADRUPLE GLOBAL POWER DEMAND IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS

Battery storage led by $TSLA & $EOSE will stabilize the grid by storing excess generation and discharging during peak inference cycles.

" It’s Better To Be a Warrior in a Garden Than To Be a ...

2025-10-01T11:42:55Z

" It’s Better To Be a Warrior in a Garden Than To Be a Gardener in a War " - Miyamoto Musashi

agree

2025-08-26T11:58:05Z

In reply to nevent1q…sya4
_________________________

agree

for my future self on how to solve problems : 1. identify the ...

2025-08-26T11:28:59Z

for my future self on how to solve problems :

1. identify the problem

2. break it down into basic elements, the most fundamental facts or truths that cannot be reduced further

3. challenge assumptions : question everything about the problem

4. rebuild from scratch, use first principles to construct a new solution / free from preconceived notions

if your peace depends on everything going right, its not peace, ...

2025-08-23T09:08:11Z

if your peace depends on everything going right, its not peace, its control.
learn to be steady and calm / grounded during uncertainty , thats real growth.

european central bank : There is an urgent need to channel retail ...

2025-06-27T13:31:30Z

european central bank : There is an urgent need to channel retail savings into capital markets to develop those markets and finance EU priorities. An EU savings standard could increase retail participation, benefiting savers, boosting investment and supporting strategic priorities.

wtf ?

All men are created equal, but some train harder in the ...

2025-06-26T11:55:07Z

All men are created equal, but some train harder in the preseason.

relationship questions : 1 - If someone told you, you were a lot ...

2025-06-26T11:48:47Z

relationship questions :

1 - If someone told you, you were a lot like your partner would this be a compliment?

2 - Are you truly fulfilled or just less lonely?

3 - Are you able to be unapologetically yourself, or do you feel the need to show up differently to please your partner?

4 - Are you in love with your partner as a whole, or are you only in love with their good side, their potential or your idea of them?

5 - Would you want your own child to date someone like them?

Nostr event nevent1qqsp7ku4fxx8zlcfn355qeq26w8vlwafffngczwleum53v2h3l4c59czyrh9yltv4kay0005s9pv2vxwq24j2f6ak2zkn85qtu5xtzpa2uz7qtp5l3a

2025-06-18T19:08:44Z

jpow on today fomc: stagflation

You’re not as special as you think. Most people are average, ...

2025-06-02T15:54:31Z

You’re not as special as you think. Most people are average, and that includes you. The world doesn’t revolve around you, and expecting otherwise leads to entitlement and disappointment. Success comes from hard work and luck, not inherent uniqueness.

Time is your most finite resource. Every second you waste is gone forever. You’ll never get back the hours spent procrastinating or chasing meaningless distractions. People often realize this too late—when health fails or loved ones are gone.

Life is inherently unfair. Good people suffer, and bad people often win. Hard work doesn’t always pay off, and talent can go unnoticed. Systems favor the privileged, and random chance plays a bigger role than most admit. You can do everything right and still lose.

Everyone you love will die, and so will you. Mortality is non-negotiable. You can’t escape it, and neither can anyone else. The longer you live, the more loss you’ll experience, and one day, you’ll be the one leaving others behind.

Happiness is fleeting, not a default state. You’re not entitled to constant joy. Life is a mix of highs and lows, and chasing endless happiness leads to frustration. Contentment comes from accepting this ebb and flow, not from external achievements or possessions.

Most people don’t care about you. Beyond a small circle of family and friends, the world is indifferent to your struggles or successes. People are too busy with their own lives to prioritize yours, and expecting otherwise sets you up for loneliness.

You’re responsible for your own problems. While circumstances can be tough, blaming others—parents, society, or luck—keeps you stuck. You have to take ownership of your choices and their consequences, even when it’s painful to do so.

Relationships require constant effort. Love, friendship, and family ties don’t survive on autopilot. Neglect them, and they’ll fade. People change, and so do their needs—staying connected means adapting, compromising, and showing up consistently.

You’ll never have all the answers. Life is chaotic and unpredictable. No matter how much you plan or learn, uncertainty will always be there. The need for control can paralyze you; sometimes, you just have to act without knowing the outcome.

Your health will decline, and you’ll regret not caring sooner. You can’t outrun aging. Poor habits—bad diet, no exercise, stress—catch up. By the time you notice the damage, it’s often harder to fix. Prioritizing health now is easier than fixing it later.

Money matters more than you’d like to admit. It doesn’t buy happiness, but it buys security, freedom, and options. Poverty is a trap that limits your choices and amplifies stress. Ignoring financial reality can lead to a life of struggle.

You’ll disappoint people, and they’ll disappoint you. No one’s perfect, including you. You’ll let down those you care about, and they’ll do the same. Holding onto grudges or guilt over this wastes emotional energy—forgiveness is often the only way forward.

Society rewards conformity, not authenticity. Being true to yourself can make you an outcast. People fear what’s different, and systems are built to enforce norms. Standing out often comes with rejection, criticism, or isolation.

Your dreams might never come true. Not every goal is achievable, no matter how hard you try. Timing, luck, and circumstances play a role. Clinging to unrealistic dreams can stop you from finding fulfillment in what’s actually possible.

You’re more selfish than you realize. Self-preservation is hardwired into humans. Even your kindest acts often have an underlying motive—validation, reciprocity, or feeling good about yourself. Pure altruism is rare, and that’s okay.

Comfort kills ambition quietly over time. Stay comfortable long enough, and you'll forget who you were becoming.

pain of discipline > pain of regret

Nostr event nevent1qqsw3ypyslhsagm27dla4nhvmy4kfw3d0hv82n9pr3z9ufhzv42n3vgzyrh9yltv4kay0005s9pv2vxwq24j2f6ak2zkn85qtu5xtzpa2uz7qmvetmx

2025-05-22T18:57:27Z

global debt $324 trillions as of q1 2025

🤨 fiat endgame ...

2025-05-20T09:01:00Z

🤨 fiat endgame

The US has been stripped of its top-notch aaa credit rating by ...

2025-05-17T06:53:08Z

The US has been stripped of its top-notch aaa credit rating by Moody’s on concerns about rising levels of government debt

As of 2024, countries with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 100% ...

2025-05-16T19:32:40Z

In reply to nevent1q…qcre
_________________________

As of 2024, countries with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 100% include:
• Venezuela: 306.95%
• Japan: 254.6%
• Sudan: 256.0%
• Greece: 172.7%
• Lebanon: 146.2%
• Italy: 138.3%
• Eritrea: 135.2%
• Cape Verde: 125.7%
• United States: 124.3%
• Singapore: 123.1%
• Bahrain: 122.7%
• Bhutan: 117.3%
• Belgium: 109.2%
• France: 108.2%
• Spain: 107.7%
• Canada: 104.7%
• Portugal: 104.3%
• Maldives: 103.9%
• Iceland: 102.4%
• Cyprus: 100.6%

over $100T in public debt combined, potentially a lot higher than ...

2025-05-16T19:31:52Z

over $100T in public debt combined, potentially a lot higher than that, with major economies debt/gdp > 120% usa and china and japan and europe, more inflation, higher rates to pay interest on debt …
end game : HODL GOLD AND BITCOIN

Nostr event nevent1qqstldwvp268kmhjz4pcqg3r2qssduf6ndl5try5xj4yepx2xvy28hgzyrh9yltv4kay0005s9pv2vxwq24j2f6ak2zkn85qtu5xtzpa2uz7qru4q7x

2025-05-16T19:13:46Z

my portfolio includes: prime location real estates gold bitcoin ...

2025-05-16T19:04:49Z

my portfolio includes:

prime location real estates

gold

bitcoin

tsll tqqq nvda

im hedged up

Resistance training stimulates the release of myokines, ...

2025-05-15T13:17:29Z

Resistance training stimulates the release of myokines, anti-inflammatory molecules that improve insulin sensitivity and reduce systemic inflammation. Those who lift weights have up to 30% lower inflammation levels on average.

“Do not pray for an easy life, pray for the strength to endure ...

2025-05-03T08:49:32Z

“Do not pray for an easy life, pray for the strength to endure a difficult one”

― Bruce Lee

i ask grok about gold 🏆 ...

2025-04-29T18:24:17Z

i ask grok about gold 🏆

“Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a ...

2025-04-29T18:03:42Z

“Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man’s character, give him power.”

a lot of people are fighting over limited supply of physical gold ...

2025-04-28T11:27:59Z

a lot of people are fighting over limited supply of physical gold

the comex data is sending up loud signals that physical gold is in high demand

trump blinked due to : bond market / freezing of funding market / ...

2025-04-10T12:11:11Z

trump blinked due to :

bond market / freezing of funding market / pressure from all sides

“You see, at first, when someone says, 'Let’s impose ...

2025-04-05T08:25:38Z

“You see, at first, when someone says, 'Let’s impose tariffs on foreign imports,' it looks like they’re doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs. And sometimes for a short while it works – but only for a short time. What eventually occurs is: First, homegrown industries start relying on government protection in the form of high tariffs. They stop competing and stop making the innovative management and technological changes they need to succeed in world markets. And then, while all this is going on, something even worse occurs. High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars. The result is more and more tariffs, higher and higher trade barriers, and less and less competition. So, soon, because of the prices made artificially high by tariffs that subsidize inefficiency and poor management, people stop buying. Then the worst happens: Markets shrink and collapse; businesses and industries shut down; and millions of people lose their jobs.”

The S&P 500 fell 9% for the week and capped the worst two-day ...

2025-04-05T06:53:59Z

The S&P 500 fell 9% for the week and capped the worst two-day plunge since March 2020. The rout has shed about $5 trillion in value so far.
The Nasdaq 100 entered a bear market. European stocks tumbled into a correction.
Wall Street’s fear gauge — the CBOE Volatility Index or the VIX — spiked to 45.
Treasuries and the Japanese yen rallied as investors sought havens. Ten-year US yields dipped below 4%.
The dollar was volatile, rebounding 1% on Friday. It had plunged in the previous session as Deutsche Bank analysts warned of a “confidence crisis.”
Bitcoin was trading about 2% higher on Friday around $83,800.
Oil tumbled to a four-year low. West Texas Intermediate futures fell about 12% in just two days. Copper plunged below $9,000 a ton.
The cost to protect investment-grade debt against default surged by the most since the regional banking meltdown of March 2023.

https://m.primal.net/PmUn.png from bloommberg

2025-03-20T11:38:17Z

from bloommberg

from @jam_croissant : If you didn’t already understand the ...

2025-03-03T13:45:31Z

from @jam_croissant :

If you didn’t already understand the current White House’s approach from their budget, Bessent is telling you 🔊 loud & clear, if you care to listen👂.

This is what he is saying in plain English:

- They want to slow demand in the real economy & hence slow inflation, by distributing less 💰 to people, via slowing wage growth and less social services to American’s in the median income on down?

How?

A/ Cut Government Employment
B/ Cut Medicare
C/ Cut Snap Food assistance and School Lunches
D/ Cut Low income Housing Assistance

Then, as these cuts take hold in the next 3-6 months…

- Meanwhile, they plan to in Equal amounts Increase supply side stimulus to get ‘private Industry moving,’ this will send money to the top 0.1% of the top wage earners. Not increasing inflation, while stimulating economic growth.

How?

A/ Massive Corporate Tax Cuts
B/ Gut the IRS and corporate financial oversight to reduce taxes further.
C/ Deregulate to allow corporations to operate untethered to increase profitability.
D/ Drill baby Drill

The demand side policies take effect quicker than the supply side, So… as cyclical deflation takes hold in 6 months or so… they plan to respond quickly with:

Loose Monetary Policy switching back from QT-> QE

take it however u see it https://m.primal.net/OgBH.jpg

2025-02-14T17:31:50Z

take it however u see it

first time ? 😂

2025-02-07T20:15:52Z

In reply to nevent1q…3gwm
_________________________

first time ? 😂

i’m kfc final boss 😎

2025-02-07T20:11:28Z

In reply to nevent1q…zc3l
_________________________

i’m kfc final boss 😎

sometimes you will never know the value of a moment until it ...

2025-01-15T19:10:36Z

sometimes you will never know the value of a moment until it becomes a memory

ayyy

2024-12-15T12:04:33Z

In reply to nevent1q…2t35
_________________________

ayyy

full understanding of the universe without having to worry about ...

2024-12-11T15:16:32Z

In reply to nevent1q…4rfw
_________________________

full understanding of the universe without having to worry about food and rent

the duo 😭

2024-12-09T17:01:28Z

In reply to nevent1q…mwzm
_________________________

the duo 😭

The alternatives are: 1) Pump food and oil to inflate away the ...

2024-12-02T20:08:27Z

The alternatives are:

1) Pump food and oil to inflate away the debt, in which case billions starve to death, possibly violently.

2) Default on the debt & execute the Great Taking to keep the system from collapse, leading to Great Depression 2.0

3) Productivity miracle

4) Inflate something "not used for anything" so no one starves & no debt collapses in nominal terms.

- luke

dudes with $10m in assets and would still live like this , same ...

2024-11-14T18:12:34Z

dudes with $10m in assets and would still live like this , same for me

The essence of an attractive man. “A man who is comfortable in ...

2024-11-02T12:31:58Z

The essence of an attractive man.

“A man who is comfortable in his own skin

Knows where he’s going.

And has fun while he’s going there.” — Dr. Robert Glover

direct plays of falling dxy strength : bitcoin gold stonks real ...

2024-11-02T12:30:40Z

direct plays of falling dxy strength :
bitcoin
gold
stonks
real estate

welcome to nostr

2024-11-02T11:57:23Z

In reply to nevent1q…wyqe
_________________________

welcome to nostr

interesting 🧐

2024-10-20T17:33:46Z

In reply to nevent1q…ntts
_________________________

interesting 🧐

Nostr event nevent1qqsr6rrtehdpfy5yfyrw5hx477f0l6m3zhjxjs273q7ckt6xld7mqjczyrh9yltv4kay0005s9pv2vxwq24j2f6ak2zkn85qtu5xtzpa2uz7qtz5rns

2024-10-19T09:41:36Z

no risk no stories

Big Tech's having its own nuclear arms race : amazon invests ...

2024-10-16T15:41:10Z

Big Tech's having its own nuclear arms race :

amazon invests over $500 million to develop small modular reactors

google signs deal with nuclear company as data center power demand surges

microsoft data centers are powered by three mile island nuclear plant

never stop bettering yourself 🥸 https://m.primal.net/LUVN.jpg

2024-10-13T06:23:09Z

never stop bettering yourself 🥸

Nostr event nevent1qqs83elru8kh3h9kt3mxj3r5r6tx7udx5u0l89uf99jjqt52xvp4duszyrh9yltv4kay0005s9pv2vxwq24j2f6ak2zkn85qtu5xtzpa2uz7q962t30

2024-10-11T19:37:22Z

" just put my fries in the bag bro " is my fav 2024 line 😂

Never been embarrassed to wear the same fit twice, never been ...

2024-10-08T18:07:33Z

Never been embarrassed to wear the same fit twice, never been embarrassed to have 1 pair of shoes, never been embarrassed to sleep on the floor,Never been embarrassed to struggle. You gotta go through hard times before you live lavish. I know its on the way so i'm forever humble. - kai

good afternoon

2024-10-08T17:49:18Z

In reply to nevent1q…2hfe
_________________________

good afternoon

quack quack

2024-10-07T11:55:42Z

In reply to nevent1q…fwk0
_________________________

quack quack

one's goal should be continuously seeking truths without ...

2024-10-06T17:53:21Z

In reply to nevent1q…k3js
_________________________

one's goal should be continuously seeking truths without biases

love live nostr 🙏

2024-10-06T17:51:54Z

In reply to nevent1q…2qs0
_________________________

love live nostr 🙏

Goldman: Unless China does QE now, the current market rally will ...

2024-10-06T08:44:52Z

Goldman: Unless China does QE now, the current market rally will crash and burn and the economy will be a crater. If China does do QE, oil will soar, and gold and bitcoin will be orders of magnitude higher.

dope !

2024-10-05T16:06:28Z

In reply to nevent1q…vxtm
_________________________

dope !

well said

2024-10-05T16:01:51Z

In reply to nevent1q…ghtq
_________________________

well said

primal for both browser and ios

2024-10-05T14:18:28Z

In reply to nevent1q…0mqt
_________________________

primal for both browser and ios

what is the best bitcoin wallet out there ? thanks 🙏 also can ...

2024-10-05T14:14:21Z

In reply to nevent1q…0z9h
_________________________

what is the best bitcoin wallet out there ? thanks 🙏 also can someone zap me 1 sat to see if my wallet works 🙏

What If Bonds Haven’t Bottomed For The Cycle… 🤔 tlt has ...

2024-10-05T13:59:59Z

What If Bonds Haven’t Bottomed For The Cycle… 🤔
tlt has the potential to revisit $80 area 🤔

to save my family fiat savings, btw can someone zap me 1 sat to ...

2024-09-13T18:03:43Z

In reply to nevent1q…f2yn
_________________________

to save my family fiat savings, btw can someone zap me 1 sat to see if my wallet work

many investors still believe the fed is not being forced to cut ...

2024-09-13T12:29:13Z

many investors still believe the fed is not being forced to cut rates to keep the US fiscal situation sustainable... but compounding interest is like the terminator**.

those investors still need to shift part of $130T of bonds into $14T of gold, $1.2T of BTC, & $65T of equities. - luke gromen

Social Security is facing $63 trillion in long-term unfunded ...

2024-09-07T14:12:56Z

Social Security is facing $63 trillion in long-term unfunded liabilities, according to the 2024 Old-Age, Survivors, Disability Insurance (OASDI) trustees report.

can someone zap me 1 sat to see if my newly created lightning ...

2024-08-30T20:19:40Z

In reply to nevent1q…ccne
_________________________

can someone zap me 1 sat to see if my newly created lightning wallet works lol thanks 🙏

Brazil suspends X — Brazil's Supreme Court announces that ...

2024-08-30T20:18:07Z

In reply to nevent1q…607k
_________________________

Brazil suspends X — Brazil's Supreme Court announces that anyone using VPN to access Twitter / X will be fined up to $8,874 a day

BRAZIL TOP COURT ORDERS IMMEDIATE SUSPENSION OF X IN BRAZIL ...

2024-08-30T20:01:30Z

BRAZIL TOP COURT ORDERS IMMEDIATE SUSPENSION OF X IN BRAZIL

another reason #nostr exists

briefly sum up current housing situation in 🇺🇸 ...

2024-08-30T19:43:01Z

briefly sum up current housing situation in 🇺🇸

https://m.primal.net/KVNY.png

2024-08-30T13:43:33Z

socialism in germany 💀 ...

2024-08-29T09:01:46Z

socialism in germany 💀

dragon bridge in da nang, i love that beach city

2024-08-28T08:38:17Z

In reply to nevent1q…6rp8
_________________________

dragon bridge in da nang, i love that beach city

what is zap ?

2024-08-27T20:16:52Z

In reply to nevent1q…zk7t
_________________________

what is zap ?

i'm from vietnam and i love #nostr hello everyone lets have a ...

2024-08-27T20:14:11Z

i'm from vietnam and i love #nostr
hello everyone lets have a journey 🤝
#introduction

primal on web damus on ios

2024-08-27T20:07:53Z

In reply to nevent1q…20un
_________________________

primal on web
damus on ios

If freedom of speech is taken away, then dumb and silent we may ...

2024-08-27T17:28:07Z

If freedom of speech is taken away, then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. - George Washington

Roger Federer from his commencement address at Dartmouth: “In ...

2024-08-26T19:59:35Z

Roger Federer from his commencement address at Dartmouth:

“In tennis, perfection is impossible... In the 1,526 singles matches I played in my career, I won almost 80% of those matches... Now, I have a question for all of you... what percentage of the POINTS do you think I won in those matches?

Only 54%.

In other words, even top-ranked tennis players win barely more than half of the points they play.
When you lose every second point, on average, you learn not to dwell on every shot.

You teach yourself to think: OK, I double-faulted. It’s only a point.
OK, I came to the net and I got passed again. It’s only a point.
Even a great shot, an overhead backhand smash that ends up on ESPN’s Top Ten Plays: that, too, is just a point.

Here’s why I am telling you this.

When you’re playing a point, it is the most important thing in the world.

But when it’s behind you, it’s behind you... This mindset is really crucial, because it frees you to fully commit to the next point… and the next one after that… with intensity, clarity and focus.

The truth is, whatever game you play in life... sometimes you’re going to lose. A point, a match, a season, a job... it’s a roller coaster, with many ups and downs.

And it’s natural, when you’re down, to doubt yourself. To feel sorry for yourself.

And by the way, your opponents have self-doubt, too. Don’t ever forget that

But negative energy is wasted energy.

You want to become a master at overcoming hard moments. That to me is the sign of a champion.

The best in the world are not the best because they win every point... It’s because they know they’ll lose... again and again… and have learned how to deal with it.

You accept it.

Cry it out if you need to... then force a smile.

You move on. Be relentless. Adapt and grow.

Work harder. Work smarter.

Remember: work smarter.”

Foreigners are not net short USDs; they are short USD cash but ...

2024-08-26T19:48:57Z

Foreigners are not net short USDs; they are short USD cash but massively long USD assets 👇.

Any time USD $dxy gets "too strong", foreigners will sell their now $57T (gross), $22T (net) in USD assets "until their hands bleed" (as a trader I know used to say) to raise USDs.

the carry trade ( usdjpy ) is borrowing negative yield yen and invest in high yield instruments around the world : ai stocks, sp500, ust, gold, bitcoin, real estate, ..........when jpy get stronger and usd get weaker, carry trade unwind will be messy !

https://x.com/primal_app/status/1812929737427169346

2024-08-26T19:19:38Z

https://x.com/primal_app/status/1812929737427169346

this is the way

2024-08-26T19:02:42Z

In reply to nevent1q…ezj3
_________________________

this is the way

such thoughtful reply, you definitely enlighten my brain today, ...

2024-08-26T18:52:52Z

In reply to nevent1q…q2tw
_________________________

such thoughtful reply, you definitely enlighten my brain today, incredible human 👍

we definitely need a few sets of keys when creating an nostr ...

2024-08-26T18:24:48Z

In reply to nevent1q…ws0w
_________________________

we definitely need a few sets of keys when creating an nostr account for the first time

yup

2024-08-26T18:08:15Z

In reply to nevent1q…trul
_________________________

yup

subsidized economic growth 😂 ...

2024-08-26T13:26:37Z

subsidized economic growth 😂

7% full employment deficit, we are in an era where fiscal ...

2024-08-26T13:14:51Z

7% full employment deficit, we are in an era where fiscal deficits are structurally larger than the rate of bank lending and are set to grow in perpetuity, and so fiscal details tend to matter more than monetary ones.

Since the GFC, the US has substantially had Federal government-driven credit growth, yet many investors still operate from a first-principles basis of “the US is fundamentally capitalist.”

Wisdom is seeing things for what they are, not for what they are called.

The higher cost of owning an electric versus a gas-powered ...

2024-08-26T12:27:08Z

The higher cost of owning an electric versus a gas-powered vehicle is a sticking point for many would-be buyers of EVs. Now, the price of a key EV component is falling, raising hopes that automakers could close the gap as they grapple with waning demand.

ford lose $40000 on every ev truck they sold = terrible business
vinfast delay usa factory
exploding ev battery
=> overall ev is a scam ???

renting is better than owning a home: 1. lower insurance or none ...

2024-08-26T12:05:20Z

renting is better than owning a home:

1. lower insurance or none
2. lower utility cost
3. no liabilities on damage, no maintenance / repair
4. freedom to move
5. no downpayment
6. no property tax
7. depreciating home price ?

leading causes of cancer: 1. tobacco use 2. obesity 3. genetic ...

2024-08-26T11:46:52Z

leading causes of cancer:

1. tobacco use
2. obesity
3. genetic factors
4. environmental exposures
5. lifestyle factors
6. infectious agents

The two biggest source of broad money creation are 1) bank ...

2024-08-25T17:46:04Z

The two biggest source of broad money creation are 1) bank lending and 2) fiscal deficits, both of which cause inflation !

the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov by france is why we ...

2024-08-25T17:36:03Z

the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov by france is why we need decentralized free speech platform !

-If Fed cuts aggressively here, JPY goes to 120 and every CUSIP ...

2024-08-25T15:56:58Z

-If Fed cuts aggressively here, JPY goes to 120 and every CUSIP has a flash crash, as the carry trade blows up.

-If Fed cuts slowly, then it may just blow everything up anyway, cause the economy is rolling over and the ‘wealth effect’ was the only thing holding it up.

-Meanwhile, we just had a 10-yr auction that effectively failed. So if the Fed cuts at all, they blow up the bond market and the banking sector. They realistically need to raise rates aggressively here to save things (imagine that!!). That’s the EM Dilemma. Which is why DMs do not want to become EMs. Or in other words, ‘they’re fuct!!’

not the main reason i move to nostr but .... 😂 ...

2024-08-25T15:52:13Z

not the main reason i move to nostr but .... 😂

Nostr event nevent1qqsrkw7f8qt92t8c8jak0szddmrncdjyxa9au25jvqfth3wp0l6lz5qzyrh9yltv4kay0005s9pv2vxwq24j2f6ak2zkn85qtu5xtzpa2uz7qp96sd4

2024-08-25T15:50:20Z

the real black swan is usa yield rise into slow down.

Nostr event nevent1qqs27y99eaespmhs8t2k2uav6zy5js0grf7heurjzn050mfapzx0vhczyrh9yltv4kay0005s9pv2vxwq24j2f6ak2zkn85qtu5xtzpa2uz7qers0mv

2024-08-25T15:34:35Z

The magic you are looking for is in the work you're avoiding !

The American NIGHTMARE is SOLD to you as the American dream: ...

2024-08-25T15:00:17Z

The American NIGHTMARE is SOLD to you as the American dream:

•$750/month car payments.
•$150,000 debt for college.
•$10,000 engagement ring.
•$400,000 mortgage.
•$40,000 wedding.

Now you’re a WAGE SLAVE FOR LIFE & STUCK in debt.

The system relies on this.

current federal fiscal deficit is masking slow down in a lot of ...

2024-08-25T14:51:59Z

current federal fiscal deficit is masking slow down in a lot of sectors, government spending has been subsidizing fake job growth, deficit is very stimulative.

No investor alive has seen a US slowdown or recession with 122% ...

2024-08-25T14:47:20Z

No investor alive has seen a US slowdown or recession with 122% US debt/GDP, 7% deficit/GDP, & -80% Net international Investment Position/GDP

The only thing keeping western governments nominally solvent was the inflation that is now fading.

bitcoin 👑 ...

2024-08-25T14:45:12Z

bitcoin 👑

Nostr event nevent1qqsg0rp2qr0arjns70jw00mp2rkmwuvg9seah9lre99tk8vqlp0cczczyrh9yltv4kay0005s9pv2vxwq24j2f6ak2zkn85qtu5xtzpa2uz7qhurd3k

2024-08-25T14:31:03Z

🤦‍♂️