Nostr notes by ngeske

If you think you’ve got to pay for coding agents geeza you’re ...

2026-08-02T01:50:24Z

If you think you’ve got to pay for coding agents geeza you’re actually clinically off your tits.
Free Devin, Hermes, OpenCode, Copilot, Cline, Aider, Goose, Codex, Continue, Kilo Code, OpenHands, Pi, Roo, Crush, Tabby, jcode, Freebuff, generous Claude Desktop.
All of them just sit there wide open like a fridge at 2 a.m. after a heavy session, light still on, cold air pouring out, full of someone else’s leftovers while you’re over here writing loads of cheques like it’s 2023 and you’ve just found a tenner down the side of the settee.
Stop treating every agent like it’s some proper luxury subscription you need to flash about just to impress the barman, you wet lettuce. Half this shit’s free as chips, half of it runs on whatever knackered old laptop held together with electrical tape and spite, and the rest will take whatever dodgy broke API key you’ve got rattling round the bottom of your pocket next to a bent fiver and a half-eaten pasty. Your wallet is not a personality trait, you gormless state.

I’m building the infrastructure layer I wish existed for AI; ...

2026-07-12T23:55:09Z

I’m building the infrastructure layer I wish existed for AI; where every decision is traceable, every system is replayable, and “trust me” gets replaced with proof. Looking for a deeply technical co-founder who wants to build foundational software, not another wrapper.

Root primitive of your entire business THE MVP: “Inference ...

2026-01-17T17:28:23Z

Root primitive of your entire business
THE MVP: “Inference Reality Check” (IRC)

One-Sentence Purpose

“Given a transformer model and hardware target, measure real throughput, latency, and cost under realistic serving conditions — not hyperscaler defaults.”

You are not benchmarking models.
You are benchmarking cloud decisions.
CONSTITUTION (Non-Negotiable Rules)

These rules prevent you from becoming irrelevant or overengineering.
1. One script
2. Inference only
3. Single model family
4. No training
5. No custom kernels
6. Use only sanctioned tools hyperscalers already endorse
7. All outputs map to dollars, latency, or risk

If it violates one of these → cut it.
WHAT YOU ARE DISRUPTING (SUBTLY)

Hyperscalers:
• Optimize for general throughput
• Hide costs behind abstractions
• Use conservative defaults
• Assume customers won’t benchmark deeply

You:
• Run their own tools
• Flip the knobs they don’t expose in dashboards
• Quantify the tradeoffs they avoid discussing

This is asymmetric.
SINGLE BENCHMARK SCRIPT: FUNCTIONAL SPEC

Input (Minimal, Sacred)

python irc.py \
--model mistralai/Mistral-7B-Instruct \
--device cuda \
--precision bf16 \
--context 4096 \
--batch 1 \
--provider aws \
--instance g5.xlarge
Output (Executive-Legible JSON)

{
"tokens_per_second": 217.4,
"latency_p50_ms": 120,
"latency_p95_ms": 190,
"vram_gb": 9.8,
"cost_per_1m_tokens_usd": 0.31,
"failure_modes": ["OOM risk at batch >2"],
"provider_defaults_vs_optimized": {
"delta_tokens_sec": "+82%",
"delta_cost": "-46%"
}
}

This JSON is your currency.
PROCESS FLOW (THIS IS THE CORE)

STEP 1: Model Graph Awareness (Zero Compiler Work)

Piggyback on:
• Torch FX
• HuggingFace generation pipeline

You extract:
• Attention layers
• KV-cache usage
• Sequence length behavior

No transformations yet — just introspection.
STEP 2: Hyperscaler-Blessed Runtime Stack

You do NOT fight platforms.

You use:
• PyTorch 2.x
• torch.compile
• FlashAttention (if available)
• accelerate
• Provider-recommended images

This makes your results unimpeachable.

“These are your tools. These are your results.”
STEP 3: Baseline Run (This Is What Clouds Hide)

Run with:
• Default HF pipeline
• Default precision
• No tuning

Capture:
• Latency
• VRAM
• Tokens/sec

This is the control.
STEP 4: Surgical Optimizations (Piggybacking on Recent Innovations)

You only flip approved knobs:

Recently blessed innovations you exploit:
• FlashAttention v2
• Paged KV cache
• Static shape specialization
• Torch 2 compile graphs
• Fused RMSNorm
• Better memory allocator flags

These are already supported.
Hyperscalers just don’t highlight them.
STEP 5: Realistic Serving Simulation

This is the differentiator.

You simulate:
• Burst traffic
• Cold start
• Instance hourly price
• Runtime efficiency
• Optimization report generator
• Hardware decision oracle
• Sales proof
• Dataset generator
• Compiler roadmap input
• Agent training substrate

* Key Stats on Fraud Scale: * Federal prosecutors (U.S. ...

2026-01-10T13:46:36Z

* Key Stats on Fraud Scale:
* Federal prosecutors (U.S. Attorney’s Office for Minnesota) estimate up to $9 billion+ potentially fraudulent across 14 “high-risk” Medicaid-related programs (e.g., housing stabilization, autism/behavioral services, personal care assistance) since 2018, out of ~$18 billion total payouts — described as “staggering, industrial-scale fraud” involving fake billing, sham providers, and non-existent services.
* Only 98+ charged (many Somali-American), 62+ convictions.
* Industrial-scale abuse — Coordinated schemes (fake enrollment, overbilling, shell companies) swamping systems, diverting funds meant for vulnerable citizens (children, disabled, low-income).
* Eroding quality of life — Billions misallocated = reduced resources for infrastructure, education, healthcare, safety nets; inflates costs, erodes public trust, strains budgets.
* Systemic vulnerabilities — Weak oversight, lax verification, whistleblower retaliation; enables “fraud tourism” and potential overseas diversions.
* Broader national pattern — Not isolated to Minnesota; echoes decades of Medicaid fraud nationwide, pandemic-era scams (tens of billions stolen across U.S.).
* Immigration & Population Context:
* Unauthorized/undocumented immigrants: Independent estimates suggest tens of millions scale (e.g., FAIR: ~18.6 million as of March 2025, up 11% since 2023; CIS: ~15.4 million in early 2025 surveys) — higher than official government figures due to undercounting, overstays, and border surges.
* Strains enforcement capacity, public systems (housing, wages, services); ties into fraud narratives (e.g., some schemes linked to immigrant networks, though not exclusively).
* Solutions & Enforcement:
* Expand ICE capacity — Workforce more than doubled to over 22,000 agents by early 2026 (from ~10,000 pre-expansion), with 12,000+ new hires in under a year via massive recruitment (220,000+ applications); supports goals like 1 million annual removals.
* Analysts call for at least 10,000 more agents to clear backlogs, strengthen interior enforcement, reduce reliance on locals — a structural necessity for humane, consistent law application.
* Single mistakes (e.g., tragic incidents) do not invalidate goals; they highlight need for better training, lower caseloads, adequate staffing in high-pressure ops.
* Systemic reforms — Transparent audits, robust verification (e.g., photo/receipt requirements), anti-fraud task forces, legislative fixes to close loopholes and prioritize accountability.

How tf is Bessent out here bailing out foreign countries with our ...

2025-10-10T12:07:04Z

How tf is Bessent out here bailing out foreign countries with our tax dollars? The dollar was already weak — might as well use it for firewood at this point.

TSLA is already a zombie company. The only thing that’ll save ...

2025-05-26T17:28:28Z

TSLA is already a zombie company. The only thing that’ll save them is more Bitcoin.

Holding stocks in a system unraveling is like buying German bonds ...

2025-04-18T00:08:53Z

Holding stocks in a system unraveling is like buying German bonds in 1920s Weimar Republic. Recency biased youngens and boomers bout to lose their shirts. Delusional faith in a burning house isn’t strategy, it’s immaturity and nostalgia. A hundred years from now most people won’t know shit coin fiat currencies existed. Bitcoin or depression. ESCAPE

If you don’t like the tariffs, you’re a useful idiot for the ...

2025-04-08T00:20:19Z

If you don’t like the tariffs, you’re a useful idiot for the globalist 😬

Nostr event nevent1qqsr7pjy44cgnmm9h2c4ant673ypkaay0haudpca2kjcp2qy6fpxdsqzypyyg0ktpd7nrpkqqlfh9950udmz74v43z2096zgucstp2ljf6guq5x5rur

2025-03-11T23:50:11Z

Thomas Massie for POTUS instead

Nostr event nevent1qqs85af5mwedd9ykaxay9j9x6w6rvm2cwzldyj0lq44msn7d0d6saeszypyyg0ktpd7nrpkqqlfh9950udmz74v43z2096zgucstp2ljf6guqfxkuhw

2025-03-08T17:28:29Z

HMU for Black Jesus merch.

Not every leader is a cra manipulator. Young women especially, ...

2025-03-08T17:03:10Z

Not every leader is a cra manipulator. Young women especially, should be mindful of this exaggerated fear most people don’t have sinister motives. But damn this Mansion documentary smacks.

Nostr event nevent1qqswvjlv56xmjd2v227l2k25ts72zl3742slrrzqfk8ceyxzxagzzkgzypyyg0ktpd7nrpkqqlfh9950udmz74v43z2096zgucstp2ljf6guqk6v4cs

2025-02-13T01:58:37Z

It’s NEVER too late to buy Bitcoin

Fentanyl has been killing Americans for DECADES and finally ...

2025-02-04T13:01:24Z

Fentanyl has been killing Americans for DECADES and finally someone actually pretends to care.

I'm not claiming causation. There's DEFINITELY a ...

2025-01-30T02:55:33Z

I'm not claiming causation. There's DEFINITELY a correlation between legacy media and heart disease.

BTC hitting new ATH, best president taking over, here comes the ...

2025-01-20T12:44:55Z

BTC hitting new ATH, best president taking over, here comes the next black swan shit storm

Nostr event nevent1qqs8j6m7ydhxx3xdj9rxl6mqst4n2wjl6w3qp2ckhv6svt80qluj3egzypyyg0ktpd7nrpkqqlfh9950udmz74v43z2096zgucstp2ljf6guq8yrx8k

2025-01-13T23:36:49Z

If Bitcoin comes as low as 71730, put your entire life savings in.

I’m sending thoughts and prayers to anyone affected by the ...

2025-01-09T13:13:36Z

I’m sending thoughts and prayers to anyone affected by the wildfires in Southern California.

Nostr event nevent1qqsquu2d46832c08uczm8xyrdpj5uhss2wmffd9jdfx2vhczkxujmeqzypyyg0ktpd7nrpkqqlfh9950udmz74v43z2096zgucstp2ljf6guqmg8jm7

2024-12-13T13:07:51Z

One Tylenol does more damage to your liver than six pints of beer

Nostr event nevent1qqstf7twxxvdag2de9x9xqkyp7z96xl2ehv0e6h7llp0n5mhmmekaxqzypyyg0ktpd7nrpkqqlfh9950udmz74v43z2096zgucstp2ljf6guqyseu6s

2024-12-05T02:48:07Z

BTC OVER 100K now ion wanna hear anything till it’s a million

Your dedication, physical and mental improvement reflects immense ...

2024-12-04T13:17:18Z

Your dedication, physical and mental improvement reflects immense strength and resilience.
Your ability to connect deeply and authentically with people is a gift to everyone in your circle.

Nostr event nevent1qqszext75aqyq8td6dwvut008dhgn3vzyj52s0t2r67ky6utcgqplwqzypyyg0ktpd7nrpkqqlfh9950udmz74v43z2096zgucstp2ljf6guqkhzmjm

2024-12-03T02:22:44Z

Being conceited ensures you’ll never improve.

Nostr event nevent1qqs2tus35cfqhljafl5cwgmcs0wpvgwlnxy09qct2322mfuwym5phdszypyyg0ktpd7nrpkqqlfh9950udmz74v43z2096zgucstp2ljf6guqnkgy4n

2024-11-22T23:45:00Z

Recontexualize boring and uncomfort cunt

Has every gay man implicitly or explicitly called their mom a ...

2024-11-22T00:13:18Z

Has every gay man implicitly or explicitly called their mom a hoe?

Nostr event nevent1qqs0hd26whkrr024weq5hhx5dnlh0r3llcj92xmk4qrsxxuvthz5e9qzypyyg0ktpd7nrpkqqlfh9950udmz74v43z2096zgucstp2ljf6guqc9t0ma

2024-11-21T21:58:55Z

I miss the days that calling stuff gay was not only pc but genius

Nostr event nevent1qqswm7a0ns4dvaxf27kxusynvc76w2edyvl6v4qajyvdfcdc898948czypyyg0ktpd7nrpkqqlfh9950udmz74v43z2096zgucstp2ljf6guq95m978

2024-11-21T12:20:50Z

BTC at 98400!!!!

Nostr event nevent1qqsyqr2vey76sry4wdhyaymtjrx79u50k9yq9rwstp863kjlf04jkcczypyyg0ktpd7nrpkqqlfh9950udmz74v43z2096zgucstp2ljf6guqwju0v3

2024-11-20T23:58:28Z

Putin has been 10000000X more peaceful than the US empire 😬

Nostr event nevent1qqswhzv6gxx562wvv404cc3p7yrrwg6nec20du66cjmx97pzl944m7szypyyg0ktpd7nrpkqqlfh9950udmz74v43z2096zgucstp2ljf6guqxqfxj3

2024-10-29T02:15:27Z

When Microsoft buys Bitcoin, every big corporation is piling in.

1. Pioneered Value Investing: Benjamin Graham’s focus on ...

2024-10-21T12:09:35Z

1. Pioneered Value Investing: Benjamin Graham’s focus on intrinsic value reshaped investing, emphasizing fundamentals over speculation.
2. Mentor to Buffett: His teachings influenced Warren Buffett, the most successful investor ever, extending Graham’s legacy.
3. Reshaped Capital Markets: Graham’s methods brought discipline and long-term thinking to global markets.
4. Stabilizing Force: His conservative strategies helped investors navigate financial crises with a margin of safety.
5. Improved Corporate Governance: His focus on accountability pushed companies toward greater transparency.
6. Enduring Education: His work remains foundational in investment education, shaping future leaders.
7. Psychological Insight: Graham’s understanding of market psychology helped investors avoid emotional mistakes.

Cute

2024-10-12T21:10:59Z

In reply to nevent1q…hguf
_________________________

Cute

Nostr event nevent1qqsw2srfuzrxrxykmuyxzm5kqrxxtcrj9kgs6dwnjkllegr2ujt4zqczypyyg0ktpd7nrpkqqlfh9950udmz74v43z2096zgucstp2ljf6guq2cnmyl

2024-10-12T21:10:51Z

There WILL be a fake alien invasion to take your rights.

It’s not half, or even 30% of the population that could be ...

2024-10-10T20:04:53Z

It’s not half, or even 30% of the population that could be considered extreme ‘liberal’ ideologues. It’s more likely around 6%, with perhaps another 18% following their lead. However, they hold a disproportionate amount of power and influence.

I decided to grow a beard, but after two weeks, I looked less ...

2024-10-06T14:06:25Z

I decided to grow a beard, but after two weeks, I looked less like a rugged woodsman and more like a patchy 14-year-old trying to sneak into a bar.

So far this year there as been $183 BILLION distributed to ...

2024-10-04T12:11:19Z

So far this year there as been $183 BILLION distributed to NONCITIZENS.

Is it just me or do all guys say big hoss when they look in the ...

2024-10-03T01:52:33Z

Is it just me or do all guys say big hoss when they look in the mirror?

As Bitcoin’s value surged, a significant portion of the ...

2024-09-30T14:29:25Z

As Bitcoin’s value surged, a significant portion of the financial establishment, once dismissive, began to embrace its potential. Paul Tudor Jones, a highly respected hedge fund manager, was among the first to declare Bitcoin a “legitimate store of value,” likening it to digital gold. This comparison is telling. Gold, with its long history of being a hedge against inflation, has become a go-to asset during times of economic uncertainty. Jones’ assertion hinted at Bitcoin’s increasing role in that capacity—an asset not just for speculation but as a safeguard against the depreciation of fiat currencies in inflationary environments.

Major financial institutions began to follow suit. Fidelity Investments, a bastion of traditional asset management, established a dedicated arm for cryptocurrency, signaling a paradigm shift. This wasn’t about chasing the latest trend—it was about recognizing Bitcoin’s structural potential in modern portfolios. Fidelity’s move reflected a broader institutional acknowledgment that digital assets, particularly Bitcoin, held significant promise for long-term value preservation, even as legacy assets like real estate continued to struggle with liquidity and market unpredictability.

Then came Goldman Sachs, whose cryptocurrency trading desk was another stark indicator that Bitcoin was shedding its fringe status. Their foray into digital assets underscored a strategic understanding: Bitcoin, with its 24/7 liquidity and global accessibility, offers a flexibility that real estate, with its significant entry and exit barriers, simply cannot match. For institutional players, Bitcoin’s liquidity enables faster portfolio rebalancing and risk management, a critical advantage over real estate’s sluggish transactional process.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, integrated Bitcoin into its investment frameworks, with CEO Larry Fink remarking on its potential as a “global market asset.” This endorsement from the titan of asset management reflects a recognition of Bitcoin’s value as a decentralized, non-sovereign asset. Fink’s reference to Bitcoin as a “global market asset” highlights a deeper structural shift—Bitcoin’s appeal lies in its decoupling from national economies, making it less vulnerable to localized political and economic disruptions that frequently impact real estate.

In contrast to real estate’s immobility, Bill Miller, a renowned investor, noted that Bitcoin was akin to a portable form of wealth that could be transferred across borders without government intervention or traditional capital controls. Real estate, while a robust long-term investment, remains tethered to its physical location. Bitcoin’s sovereignty, however, offers unparalleled flexibility, especially in a world where governments increasingly look to tax and regulate physical assets. Miller’s recognition of Bitcoin’s ability to be moved without restrictions points to a future where financial sovereignty becomes paramount to wealth protection.

Grayscale Investments further amplified this institutional acceptance by creating pathways for both small and large investors to access Bitcoin through its trusts. This move democratized Bitcoin ownership, reinforcing its divisibility advantage. Real estate, with its high upfront capital requirements, cannot compete with Bitcoin’s fractional ownership model. For wealth accumulation, particularly in uncertain markets, the ability to invest incrementally, as opposed to needing significant capital outlays for real estate, represents a powerful tool for broader wealth distribution.

Meanwhile, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, began to rethink his stance on Bitcoin, stating that it had “proven itself” as a valuable asset. Dalio’s acknowledgment is pivotal, especially given his long-held belief in the importance of gold and real estate as hedges against economic instability. His shift toward Bitcoin suggests a recognition that real estate’s appeal, particularly in its ability to store value, may be waning in comparison to Bitcoin’s non-correlated performance and superior global liquidity.

The endorsement of Stanley Druckenmiller, another titan of hedge fund management, further solidified Bitcoin’s standing. Druckenmiller, once a skeptic, admitted that Bitcoin might surpass gold in terms of performance, given its technological underpinnings and scarcity model. While real estate benefits from tangible, physical scarcity, Bitcoin’s 21 million cap introduces a form of digital scarcity that is arguably more predictable and immune to market shocks like oversupply or underdevelopment—issues that can plague real estate.

What distinguishes Bitcoin in wealth accumulation is not just its portability or liquidity but also its resilience. During the COVID-19 pandemic, as real estate markets faltered and investors faced uncertainties over commercial and residential spaces, Bitcoin thrived. The global crisis underscored the fragility of physical assets in times of economic downturn. Bitcoin, however, operated unhindered by geographical or infrastructural constraints, allowing investors to continue transacting across borders and time zones. Citi’s research highlighted this, positing that Bitcoin could eventually become the preferred currency for international trade—a role real estate, with its inherent immobility, could never fulfill.

In its 2021 report, Bank of America echoed these sentiments, asserting that Bitcoin had become “too large to ignore.” This acknowledgment speaks not just to its price appreciation but to its increasing relevance as a hedge, store of value, and medium of exchange—roles historically reserved for assets like gold and real estate.

1. The Early 1970s: Nixon Shock and Oil Crisis In 1971, President ...

2024-09-25T01:28:12Z

1. The Early 1970s: Nixon Shock and Oil Crisis
In 1971, President Nixon took the U.S. off the gold standard, ending the Bretton Woods system and effectively leading to the current fiat currency system. The ensuing Nixon Shock caused inflation, contributing to economic turbulence throughout the 1970s. This period also saw the first oil crisis (1973), which resulted in a severe stock market decline. However, the long-term resilience of the S&P 500 is clear as it recovered following these shocks.
2. Late 1970s to Early 1980s: Stagflation and Monetary Policy
The chart shows continued volatility due to stagflation, a mix of high inflation and stagnating growth, leading to policy shifts under the Federal Reserve. The appointment of Paul Volcker as Fed Chair in 1979 is pivotal, as he implemented high-interest rates to curb inflation. This decision resulted in a recession but stabilized inflation and set the stage for a bull market in the 1980s.
3. Reaganomics and the Bull Market of the 1980s
Reagan’s policies, including tax cuts and deregulation, contributed to the rapid economic expansion reflected in the S&P 500’s growth. However, the period also saw Black Monday in 1987, the largest single-day percentage decline in the S&P 500’s history. Despite this, the overall trend in the 1980s remained upwards, fueled by strong fiscal policies and continued deregulation.
4. 1990s: Technology Boom and Globalization
The collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent end of the Cold War fostered an era of globalized trade, allowing corporations to expand and generate higher returns, as reflected in the market’s growth. Additionally, the advent of the internet and technology boom in the late 1990s culminated in the Dot-com Bubble. Although the bubble burst in 2000, leading to a sharp correction, the long-term trajectory remained upward.
5. 2000s: 9/11 and the Housing Bubble
The 9/11 attacks in 2001 and the subsequent U.S. invasion of Iraq brought economic uncertainty, but the market bounced back by mid-decade. However, this recovery was built on shaky foundations as the housing bubble formed due to loose lending standards and speculative real estate investments. This culminated in the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, which had a profound impact on the S&P 500, as reflected in the sharp dip during that period. Lehman Brothers’ collapse and the government’s response via TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) and Fed monetary easing prevented a deeper collapse.
6. 2010s: Monetary Stimulus and Market Growth
Following the 2008 crisis, the Federal Reserve implemented historically low interest rates and engaged in quantitative easing, pumping liquidity into the market. This facilitated a decade-long bull market as the S&P 500 soared through the 2010s. Major events included the European debt crisis, but the significant shift was the rise of technology companies, such as Apple and Facebook, which became key drivers of S&P 500 growth.
7. 2020s: Pandemic and Modern Challenges
The chart’s most recent section reflects the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused an initial sharp decline as economies shut down globally. However, massive fiscal and monetary stimulus by governments worldwide led to an unprecedented recovery in the markets. The U.S. government passed several stimulus packages, and the Federal Reserve introduced more aggressive monetary policies to ensure liquidity in the markets. Despite a brief recovery, the period remains challenging, with events like inflationary pressures in 2021-2022 due to supply chain disruptions and post-pandemic reopening, followed by geopolitical tensions such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Nuances and Deeper Observations:

1. Logarithmic Scaling
The use of a logarithmic scale highlights the exponential growth of the S&P 500 index, especially in the latter half of the 20th century. While earlier periods such as the 1970s appear relatively flat, in real terms, these periods involved significant growth, reflecting the power of long-term compounding.
2. Impact of Global Events
One of the most remarkable aspects of the chart is how the market has continuously rebounded from crises, including wars, political upheavals, and financial crashes. For example, despite the 9/11 attacks, the market recovered fairly quickly due to aggressive monetary easing. Similarly, Black Monday, the 1987 stock market crash, caused a massive single-day drop but was followed by one of the longest bull markets in history.
3. Technological Innovation as a Key Driver
The rise of technology companies in the 1990s and 2000s is crucial to understanding the market’s growth. Companies like Apple, Microsoft, and more recently Facebook (now Meta) and Google, have fundamentally reshaped the economy, contributing disproportionately to the S&P 500’s returns. These companies’ dominance is tied to their ability to leverage network effects, global scale, and innovation, which are characteristics less prevalent in earlier decades of the index.
4. Monetary Policy’s Role in Market Stability
Central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, have played a critical role in stabilizing markets during times of crisis. The Volcker Shock of the late 1970s is one of the clearest examples, as the Fed raised interest rates dramatically to curb inflation, setting the stage for economic recovery in the 1980s. Similarly, the Fed’s response to the 2008 financial crisis, through measures such as quantitative easing, allowed for a recovery that extended into the 2010s.
5. Geopolitical Risks and Recovery
Geopolitical events, such as wars, terrorist attacks, and political upheaval, have often created short-term volatility in markets, as seen in reactions to 9/11, the Iraq war, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, the long-term trajectory of the market appears largely insulated from these crises, with recoveries typically following government and central bank interventions.
6. The 2020s and Post-Pandemic World
The post-pandemic period presents unique challenges. While the market rebounded quickly due to massive stimulus, it also led to concerns about inflation, rising interest rates, and supply chain disruptions, all of which have the potential to influence market performance in new and unpredictable ways. The latest geopolitical tensions, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, along with renewed concerns about energy supplies, show that the market continues to face external risks.