Nostr notes by GRANTGILLIAM

Nostr event nevent1qqsz7zzez5ptsd2gwvetxr4qqja6z7mrmwtjjz430m9ym4lgeg59v2gzyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gs4uaumv

2026-06-28T22:17:44Z

Nostr event nevent1qqs0gh6f99m077gcjzkpq3tly9dpgun9zrymjlxz7d4e78x24xqyvfqzyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gs66f603

2026-06-17T19:19:54Z

Clankity clank clank, clankity clank, look at clanker go.

Nostr event nevent1qqs82srsjsqmm36dlluchdzpn2p297ga4egjyln0wqeln87dzfk9gkqzyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gst9na6p

2026-04-22T20:37:22Z

Clank around and find out

Nostr event nevent1qqsr0w2qlkdufjx5xyphp7ajpn9jkderd6w5s9lr5geszp5wla0ux9gzyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gs5kla44

2026-03-24T21:26:17Z

Inflation is the fog of war

Nostr event nevent1qqszu33undqhgje94rfntnsegmmje6vgk47x44l6yfyk33kqmtc3ntgzyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gsn0l9t5

2026-03-12T02:00:05Z

@nprofile…dh4k 's Ten31 Timestamp, subscribe so you ...

2026-03-07T17:52:38Z

JOHNARNOLD (nprofile…dh4k) 's Ten31 Timestamp, subscribe so you don't have to wait for me to repost to nostr. https://www.ten31timestamp.com/

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naddr1qv…gqhe

To Rule the Waves: Ten31 Timestamp 939,720

Published: Saturday, March 7, 2026

Source: https://www.ten31timestamp.com/p/to-rule-the-waves-ten31-timestamp

All professional Situation Monitors (and the amateurs who just do it for the love of the game) had to become military, maritime, and munitions experts this week, as the conflict between the US / Israel and Iran escalated into a broader regional disruption. Throughout the week, Iran launched missiles and drone strikes at oil and shipping infrastructure operated by various Persian Gulf neighbors (as well as some AWS data centers), and most importantly threatened an effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping chokepoint for roughly 20% of the world’s liquid petroleum products. In conjunction with rhetoric from the Trump administration that the fight won’t be done until the US wins a complete and unconditional surrender, as well as broad cancellation of maritime insurance contracts on Hormuz routes, the escalating volatility sent Gulf oil shipments to near-zero and oil prices through the roof, with WTI and Brent both finishing the week up 35% for the largest single-week moves in over 40 years. Everything you read on this conflict (including the bloviating in this particular rag) should be taken with the massive grain of salt appropriate for the Fog of War that characterizes the early days of fighting, including, per our duly elected officials, whether this actually constitutes a war at all. That said, the White House’s new munitions production commitments from major defense contractors, reported interest in arming regional rebel groups, and quiet incursion into Ecuador this week all certainly point toward the potential for extended kinetic conflict around the world in an attempt to solidify US hegemony in an increasingly fractured power landscape.

Against that bumpy backdrop, US Treasuries – ostensibly the bedrock of the global capital stack and the core safe haven asset for times like these – sold off throughout the week, with the 10-year climbing to nearly 4.2% after reclaiming a 3-handle late last week. The move so far has basically just been a reversal of recent gains, so it’s too soon to make any strong calls, but the lack of an incremental bid is nevertheless notable given the events of this week are almost certainly worse than consensus from just a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the US private markets landscape is continuing to show more cracks in the foundation, as both Blackstone and BlackRock saw significant redemptions out of some of the largest private credit funds in the world, and major alternative asset managers extended their brutal slump, with key blue chip names in the space now down over 40% off last summer’s highs. Finally, the latest jobs numbers pointed to unexpected softness in the labor market, and this weakness notably didn’t include any observable impact from the wave of AI advancements that has sent shockwaves through markets (which either suggests everyone needs to calm down or that you’re already seeing weakness even before the hurricane makes landfall). As humble bitcoiners, we won’t pretend to have special insight into how policymakers and geopolitical lever-pullers might be viewing this confluence of crosswinds, but we’ll just say to anyone planning on a reduction in the size of the Fed balance sheet over the next few years with all this going on:

Selected Portfolio News

Strike announced it has secured a New York BitLicense and is now live in the Empire State, making it one of just a few bitcoin companies to be able to fully service New Yorkers:

https://x.com/Strike/status/2029700139200225515?s=20

Strike also announced the rollout of a new Line of Credit product to give users a more flexible way to tap into their bitcoin for dollar liquidity:

https://x.com/jackmallers/status/2028973728567312550#m

Media

Strike Founder and CEO Jack Mallers gave a compact talk outlining bitcoin’s value proposition at this year’s BLISS summit.

AnchorWatch Co-Founder and COO Becca Rubenfeld appeared on the Bitcoin Archive podcast to discuss the growing intersection of bitcoin and insurance, and much more.

MapleAI Co-Founder Mark Suman joined TFTC to dig into the latest advances in agentic AI and how to harness them securely.

Market Updates

As the world grappled with the US’s first new ~~Military Action~~ ~~International Kerfuffle ~~ ~~Gentleman’s Dust-up~~ war since pulling out of Afghanistan in 2021, President Trump kicked off the week by trying to assure everyone that the “Mission Accomplished” banners will fly in four weeks or less.

Of course, like any good crypto influencer telling you how the price could either go higher or lower (DYOR, NFA), Trump also suggested the conflict could go on much longer, and late in the week said we’re actually not going to be done until we get an “unconditional surrender” from the Iranian regime.

The shorter end of the President’s timeline seemed progressively less likely as the week went on, as Iran did its best to extend the conflict across the Persian Gulf, including strikes against Saudi refineries and a liquefied natural gas hub in Qatar, while threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping chokepoint in a region that supplies ~20% of the world’s total liquid petroleum products.

Fears of Iranian attacks sent traffic through this critical passage down to essentially zero for most of the week, as leading maritime insurers cancelled policies on vessels in the Strait, and shipping giant Maersk suspended multiple services in response to the volatility.

The Trump administration rushed to announce a $20 billion reinsurance program to get traffic through the channel moving again, and the White House further vowed to use the Navy to defend oil shipments in the area (though it’s unclear if the US has the capacity to cash that check).

In an attempt to gain the upper hand, the White House is also reportedly considering arming a group of moderate Kurdish rebels (change the channel, this one’s a re-run), perhaps with the critical “Exquisite Class” munitions whose production American defense companies agreed to quadruple this week.

For what it’s worth, the New York Times reported mid-week that Iran has signaled willingness to come to terms to end the conflict, though Iranian leaders publicly suggested they’re not interested in negotiating. Meanwhile, Iran’s President vowed on Friday night to halt attacks on neighboring countries, and some reports suggest steep declines in the pace of Iranian missile launches during the week, potentially indicating dwindling stockpiles.

Just for good measure, the US also quietly launched an “anti-drug trafficking” operation in Ecuador, which aligns with our ongoing thesis that the White House wasn’t just bluffing when it released its National Security Strategy memo late last year.

We have no alpha on how long the Iranian conflict might last, but it’s worth noting a few second derivatives of the events so far, including the downstream impacts of disruptions in Qatar on China’s semiconductor self-sufficiency ambitions and, more importantly, a potential blockade of a region that supplies some 45% of Chinese oil. Our tinfoil hats are at the dry cleaners, but we can imagine strategists at the Pentagon considering these asymmetrically disruptive impacts on China before making the decision to launch the White House’s latest Leeroy Jenkins campaign.

Whatever the geopolitical and military implications, oil prices ripped higher throughout the week, with WTI spiking to $91, its highest level in several years and good for the largest weekly move since 1983. With prices already up 50% YTD, Qatar’s energy minister suggested the pain could get much worse, predicting $150 per barrel in the next few weeks if the conflict isn’t resolved.

US Secretary of State and future Viceroy of Cuba Marco Rubio indicated the US will institute various measures to contain the impacts of the oil price shock, while Fed Chair Silver Medalist Kevin Hassett assured the public that the White House has a whole flow chart to manage the situation. The administration was kind enough to provide Ten31 with an exclusive preview of what these measures might look like.

Trump, for his part, did his best Ivan Drago impression to project relative indifference to gas price fluctuations, noting “if they rise, they rise.”

Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum also suggested the administration is “considering all options” to bring down oil prices, and Burgum notably flew to Venezuela this week to work on deals for American oil companies to expand operations in the country.

Burgum’s trip also included an interesting deal for the US to buy hundreds of millions of dollars in gold from a state-owned Venezuela miner, as well as discussions about American mining companies taking advantage of Venezuela’s rich (but cartel-controlled) critical mineral reserves.

Across the pond, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US may move to reduce sanctions on Russian oil shipments to help mitigate global price pressure.

Back in the US, the Department of Justice released a memo laying the groundwork for President Trump to invoke the Defense Production Act to restart stalled offshore oil drilling in California despite local permitting and regulatory pushback.

But despite the many stopgap solutions trotted out by the White House, US Treasury yields ripped higher all week on the possibility of sustained pressure in the world’s key energy input. The 10-year gave back all recent gains, touching as high as 4.17% on the week after briefly dipping below 4% just before war headlines hit the wire. It’s too early to make any definitive calls, but we think it’s fair to say this is interesting price action for the world’s premier safe haven asset during a time of escalating uncertainty.

US stock indices initially couldn’t figure out whether the potential start of World War III was bullish or not, as the S&P closed in the green on Monday, but by Friday the combination of $150 oil fears and very weak jobs data pushed equity indices firmly negative for the week.

The South Korean Kospi Index was a little more decisive, dropping 12% on Tuesday for its worst single-day drawdown in history.

USD asset markets may soon also need to contend with second-order disruptions from chaos in the Middle East, as the Financial Times reported that the major Gulf States “could review overseas investment commitments” – including the massive planned investments the US announced to much fanfare last year – to cope with financial strains from the war. That said, Gulf State governments are reportedly encouraging the Trump administration to stay the course in Iran.

The volatile environment piled onto what has already been a tough run for private markets, as Blackstone announced this week that it had allowed investors in BCRED, the world’s largest private credit fund with more than $80 billion of AUM, to withdraw almost 8% of fund assets.

Similarly, BlackRock honored withdrawals from its $25 billion HPS Corporate Lending fund this week, but only up to the quarterly maximum threshold of 5%. Total redemption requests came in at over 9% of fund assets, marking the first time the fund has seen requests above its quarterly maximum.

Finally, the collapse of MFS in the UK, which has reportedly resulted in a shortfall of over $1 billion to creditors, added to the growing chorus of concerns about hidden “cockroaches” in credit markets. All these headlines put continued pressure on the publicly traded alternative asset manager complex, which extended its nasty recent drawdown all week.

More positively, the ISM Manufacturing PMI reading came in above 50 for the second month in a row, suggesting January’s strong reading wasn’t just the result of seasonality. However, the latest Non-Farm Payrolls data for February came in well below expectations and down M/M as the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, dampening excitement about the fundamental macro backdrop.

Former Fed Governor and rate cuts connoisseur Stephen Miran immediately took to CNBC to reiterate the jobs print strengthens the case for near-term cuts, and San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly admitted this data point complicates the picture for the Fed.

Lest you forget about the US trade balance, Secretary Bessent reminded everyone that 15% global tariffs will take effect this week, and he expects duties to return to their prior levels by August. At the same time, Bessent is reportedly planning to lean on China to buy more oil from the US and deemphasize its reliance on Iran, a demand that may have a little more bite after this week.

Amid the chaos, bitcoin broke above the $70,000 level and climbed to nearly $74,000 before retracing to the high $60k range on Friday’s broad market selloff. We have no crystal ball on near-term price action, but we do think the orange coin chopping in a range against a backdrop of broad selloffs elsewhere is somewhat reminiscent of the post-Liberation Day moves last year.

Strategy’s STRC preferred stock (which is intended to approximate the characteristics of a money market fund, targeting face value stability while paying a variable rate) held the key $100 level the entire week, likely enabling purchases of ~4,000 bitcoin, above the week’s total newly mined supply.

Regulatory Update

Kraken became the first US crypto exchange to score a Federal Reserve master account, giving the company direct access to the Fed’s core settlement system. The exchange is limited to a “skinny account,” meaning it can’t access Fed services like the discount window, but the headline is nevertheless a major milestone for digital asset companies’ integration with traditional banking rails.

President Trump interestingly took time out of his Age of Empires session this week to fire off a Truth Social post reiterating that Congress needs to pass the CLARITY Act as soon as possible. The post seemed to suggest that Trump views incumbent banks (and not the crypto lobby) as the limiting factor in the process.

Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis reopened her push for a de minimis crypto tax exemption, this time for purchases under $300 with an annual cap of $5,000.

Noteworthy

The Bitcoin Policy Institute published a new study showing that AI agents generally favor bitcoin relative to all available monetary options, with overwhelming preference for it as a store of value. Stablecoins edged out bitcoin for the everyday payments use case.

But Ray Dalio reminded us this week that there’s only one gold, and central banks will never buy bitcoin because of privacy and quantum computing.

Fidelity published a report arguing that evidence increasingly favors the end of the traditional “Four Year Cycle” narrative for bitcoin’s price.

While this week’s soft jobs numbers did not necessarily validate fears of an imminent AI apocalypse, Anthropic released some new data quantifying the potential medium-term impact from AI advancements on a broad array of professions.

Travel

OPNext, New York, April 16

Bitcoin 2026, Las Vegas, April 27-29

https://x.com/playgolfcollege/status/2029558289621557662?s=42

2026-03-06T14:34:06Z

https://x.com/playgolfcollege/status/2029558289621557662?s=42

Nostr event nevent1qqsqku9yjc4jg6lxl4d2cml8c0mjg9d84c066ahukcsyq0p55y64zvszyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gs59mnjx

2026-03-04T02:17:20Z

Bitcoin is absolutely right!

Is there even a second best bitcoin and macro newsletter out ...

2026-02-28T22:09:57Z

Is there even a second best bitcoin and macro newsletter out there? (NO, THERE IS NO SECOND BEST). Courtesy of JOHNARNOLD (nprofile…dh4k)

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naddr1qv…8u5c

Fast Takeoffs and Hard Landings: Ten31 Timestamp 938,757

Published: Saturday, February 28, 2026

Source: https://www.ten31timestamp.com/p/fast-takeoffs-and-hard-landings-ten31

Another Saturday morning, another regime change strike on a ~~key marginal producer of oil for China~~ dangerous threat to Freedom and Democracy. Following last month’s Midnight Maduro Madness, President Trump greeted Americans this morning with news of an extensive attack on Iran coordinated alongside Israel, ostensibly to “defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats” from the current regime. The President explicitly encouraged the Iranian people to “take over the government” in the wake of the US’s attacks and expressed willingness to ramp up involvement to a degree that might include American casualties, a fairly radical shift from the “no new wars” tenor of Trump’s first term (though early reports suggest much of the country’s key leadership may have already been eliminated). While our security clearance is too low to grant us much insight on all the motivations driving what seems to be a politically unpopular military excursion, we have to imagine it doesn’t hurt that the successful installation of a US-friendly Iranian government – which, if the history of regime change wars tells us anything, should be a total walk in the park – would potentially boost American leverage in the ongoing soft decoupling from China.

The Pentagon also made stateside headlines this week through a highly public and acrimonious conflict with frontier AI lab Anthropic over the company’s attempts to place “safety” controls on what its models and tools licensed to the DoW will and won’t do. This press release war seemed to conclude with the White House directing the Pentagon to cease use of Anthropic products, but we think these two headlines are more intertwined than consensus may appreciate, as they jointly point in the same direction of the US government aggressively moving to reassert wartime control over (and potentially expand the definition of) its sphere of influence. Against a backdrop where Substack AI Doomposting can send stocks of the biggest companies in the world into freefall; where tech companies are beginning to tout benefits from large AI-driven cost rationalizations; and where the Executive Branch is consistently maneuvering to both subtly and kinetically undermine its main geopolitical rival, this week’s Hegseth/Amodei showdown sets up an interesting question of who actually has sovereignty over what increasingly looks like incredibly powerful, society-altering technology. The Trump administration’s attitude toward outright industrial policy and direct equity stakes in massive companies over the past year suggests to us that if you’re building a superweapon in US borders – and that weapon happens to be, for now, the country’s main technological edge against a rival that produces basically everything else – you shouldn’t be surprised when the US government declares you the junior partner. At the risk of beating a dead horse, we continue to believe these secular megatrends have significant implications for globally accessible liquid assets that can be held without counterparty risk.

Selected Portfolio News

AnchorWatch launched a wide array of customizable Vault options – including multi-institution support soon – as well as optional insurance policies, Coldcard integrations, and more:

https://x.com/AnchorWatch/status/2026696240570749214#m

Fold announced balance sheet updates to simplify its capital structure, enhance operational flexibility, and reduce potential dilution:

https://x.com/fold_app/status/2027493948718006560

Media

Maple AI Co-Founder Mark Suman joined What Bitcoin Did to discuss the rapid advancements in the AI landscape.

Ten31 Advisor and Zaprite Head of Business Development Parker Lewis appeared on What Bitcoin Did as well to discuss bitcoin’s role in the changing global monetary order.

Market Updates

The White House got everyone’s weekend off to a nice start with another Saturday morning dictator deposition, announcing overnight that the US military has initiated major strikes on Iran. President Trump’s address to the nation suggested the attacks are intended to defend the US against “imminent threats,” though after the ostensible total destruction of the country’s nuclear program last summer, it’s not entirely clear what those threats might be.

That said, we’d keep an eye on Iran’s status as a key marginal supplier of oil for China, as the country’s independent refineries reportedly turned to Iran to backfill some supply in the wake of last month’s Maduro ouster from Venezuela.

The headlines weren’t much more encouraging earlier in the week, as independent research firm Citrini posted a widely circulated report highlighting the potential for massive disruption to wide swaths of the economy from rapid advancements in AI.

While the report largely highlighted scenarios that terminally online AI maxis have been ranting about for years, and various Wall Street shops quickly responded with obligatory takedown pieces, the report was apparently fresh enough to send stocks from Blackstone to DoorDash to Visa reeling on Monday morning.

Fed Governor Chris Waller shrugged off the concerns, arguing that the risks of AI to the labor market are overstated, which is very comforting coming from the institution that gave us “subprime is contained.” His colleague Lisa Cook, meanwhile, suggested she’s not so sure.

It was a bit of an awkward week, then, for fintech giant Block to announce it will cut its workforce by nearly 50% thanks to productivity gains delivered by AI tools. This announcement sent the stock up nearly 25%, which will no doubt give other executives with large org structures something to think about.

To be fair, Block CEO Jack Dorsey has freely admitted to overhiring in recent years, and the company’s headcount still remains well above its pre-COVID hiring spree, so a chunk of this reduction is likely just standard right-sizing, but we would fade the idea that that’s the entirety of the explanation.

As another data point in the same direction, spending on US data center construction officially surpassed spending on new office construction after clearly trending in that direction for several years.

Meanwhile, US Senator Brian Schatz introduced two new AI bills that would tax AI revenues to fund retraining programs and, perhaps more significantly, invoke an automatic “whole government response” if unemployment climbs above 5.5% for two quarters. It’s still not necessarily our base case, but we’d argue kneejerk UBI in response to rapid AI advancements is definitively still not priced in (to anything).

Interestingly, despite the market increasingly reckoning with the potential for massive disruptions from these themes, AI lynchpin Nvidia sold off hard despite very strong earnings this week.

All the consternation pushed the US 10-year yield down below 4% for the first time since October (though we’ll see how that move holds up Monday morning if Iran successfully closes the Strait of Hormuz) while handing bank stocks their worst session since Liberation Day on growing concerns over the health of private credit in an AI-disrupted world.

All the upheaval was the last thing the illiquid side of the market needed, as Bain said this week that the ongoing private equity dealmaking dry spell is now worse than the trough of 2008.

Despite the tremors, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggested the central bank should keep rates on hold for now as inflation remains too far above target. Goolsbee’s case got another data point in its favor late in the week, as January’s Producer Price Index reading came in substantially above expectations at +0.8% M/M.

For what it’s worth, though, Bessent / Warsh mentor Stan Druckenmiller said in an interview this week that he expects the Fed is still likely to cut rates, alongside a call for disinflationary growth. The Soros protégé also suggested he remains bearish on the dollar as trade imbalances correct.

Overseas, recently elected Japanese Prime Minister (and former Abenomics acolyte) Sanae Takaichi has reportedly started taking a “tougher stance” with the Bank of Japan in an effort to discourage further rate hikes.

Elsewhere in Japanese financial plumbing, new reports this week indicated that January’s well-publicized Fed “rate check” on the USDJPY cross was initiated by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and not at the request of the Japanese.

On the tariff front, Bessent said that Treasury’s tariff revenue projections for the year remain unchanged despite the Trump administration’s Supreme Court loss last week, though he admitted that the $175 billion in cumulative tariff revenue thus far will likely never hit consumer wallets given the many companies suing for refunds.

Jane Street, the quant trading giant that has proven to be everyone’s favorite boogeyman in recent months, was hit with an insider trading lawsuit this week regarding the company’s alleged involvement in 2022’s massive Terra / Luna unwind.

Denizens of various Fintwit subcultures celebrated the news as a sign that their preferred bags can now rise uninhibited by supposed manipulations like the “10am slam.” We’ll just say we have our doubts.

Saturday’s Iran headlines predictably tanked bitcoin’s price, though as of this writing the orange coin has recovered to $65,000 following a week that saw over $1 billion in ETF inflows. Despite the drawdown since last fall, sentiment in the gutter, and ongoing global uncertainty, cumulative net flows into bitcoin ETFs have declined only ~12% from their October all-time highs.

As bitcoin ranges between $60-70,000, more than half of bitcoin supply is now being held at a loss, a common condition for finding a bottom during prior bear markets. Meanwhile, essentially every on-chain mean reversion model now points to the same conclusion.

Morgan Stanley filed for a de novo national bank charter geared toward providing direct custody of bitcoin and other digital assets for clients, the latest headline out of traditional finance that looks nothing like what we were seeing the last time bitcoin took a 50% drawdown.

Regulatory Update

Missouri advanced its latest bitcoin reserve bill, while Indiana passed a bill to allow public retirement plans to add exposure to bitcoin ETFs.

Noteworthy

Pseudonymous bitcoin and eCash developer Calle launched Numopay, a free open source POS app enabling NFC-based tap-to-pay capabilities with any bitcoin or eCash wallet.

Travel

Bitcoin Jawn, Philadelphia, March 2

OPNext, New York, April 16

Bitcoin 2026, Las Vegas, April 27-29

THE BEST BITCOIN NEWSLETTER, COURTESY OF @nprofile…rgt5 ...

2026-02-23T14:48:09Z

THE BEST BITCOIN NEWSLETTER, COURTESY OF JOHNARNOLD (nprofile…rgt5)

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The Reality Distortion Field: Ten31 Timestamp 937,699

Published: Saturday, February 21, 2026

Source: https://www.ten31timestamp.com/p/the-reality-distortion-field-ten31

Anyone who’s read a Steve Jobs biography or watched one of his many biopics probably remembers the famous concept of the “Reality Distortion Field” (RDF), whereby the Apple founder’s charisma (or abusive personality, depending on your source) would lead those in his orbit to ignore conventional assumptions about real-world constraints and push through to complete a task anyone else would dismiss as impossible. We’d argue most people have their own RDF, but it typically runs in the opposite direction – a kind of magical thinking that bends perception of reality to flatter preconceived notions – and we think this week showed a few examples of the RDF’s influence on legacy institutions, which seem to be under the impression this is still 1992. Most notably, the Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s unilaterally imposed “emergency” tariffs, essentially the lynchpin of the White House’s entire economic policy agenda, prompting many RDF-plagued opponents of these tariffs to immediately celebrate Trump’s apparent defeat. However, the President quickly made clear that the tariffs will be imposed in some other way, and it indeed looks like he has all the legal firepower he needs to at least keep the matter alive for years to come, largely thanks to a half-century of both parties enthusiastically vesting ever more power in an increasingly unaccountable administrative state. The institutional RDF would suggest this is the end of the line for tariffs, but we think the past year clearly shows the die has been cast on the global economic reordering, and – for better or worse – we’re not reverting to pre-Liberation Day norms just because of procedural disagreements on which statute technically provides the necessary window dressing.

The institutional RDF also seemed to be on display at the Federal Reserve this week, as the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting continued to point to a divided Fed still dithering about the minutiae of how it messages the speed of rate cuts, with some officials even arguing for forward guidance toward the potential for rate hikes. While Fed officials wring their hands and prudently rearrange deck chairs, the Treasury Department appears to already be in the process of writing the next chapter, as Treasury’s latest quarterly refunding documents clearly assume an increasingly accommodative Fed and greater coordination with the central bank to manage the government’s ballooning funding needs. At the end of the day, when a sovereign – particularly the most powerful sovereign in the world – feels itself to be existentially threatened by a rival or needs dependable funding for its strategic priorities, history suggests that no amount of institutional RDF will get in its way. We’re not taking a particular view one way or the other on the various goals of the administration, but we do see the decades-old assumptions of Wall Street and K Street (clean separation of powers, effective checks and balances, Fed independence) to be increasingly at odds with the realities of the present moment, and we’d argue the breakdown of those frameworks has significant implications for both neutral reserve assets and, more importantly, technologies like bitcoin that can provide a permissionless bulwark for individual liberties in a time of rapidly shifting norms.

Selected Portfolio News

Strike launched Agent Playground, an open source reference template for portable AI agent environments:

https://x.com/Strike/status/2024892553766564313#m

Media

Ten31 Managing Partner Marty Bent joined Bram Kanstein and Onramp to discuss the latest in bitcoin, AI, regulation, and more.

Market Updates

Though the headline dropped in the middle of a Friday, the biggest news of the week was the Supreme Court’s long-awaited decision on President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Despite a bench of justices optically tilted in Trump’s favor, the high court ruled against the current incarnation of the tariffs in a 6-3 decision.

Taken at face value, this decision undermines one of the key components of the White House’s economic agenda; however, President Trump quickly emphasized that his team has many other fallback options in place and suggested he may roll out “even stronger” tariffs in the near term.

While the Supreme Court threw a wrench into the White House’s trade agenda and the President vowed to push forward, the latest trade data released this week showed a significant jump in the US’s trade deficit in December, back to levels that look much closer to the prior few yeras. Overall, the 2025 trade deficit came in basically in line with 2024, though a variety of early-year pull-forwards and the impact of gold flows complicate the picture.

Potentially complicating another important pillar of the President’s platform, the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting continued to point to a divided Fed and an uncertain path for further benchmark rate cuts from here, with some officials considering new “two-sided language” to leave open the possibility of rate hikes.

That said, as part of its Quarterly Refunding Announcement, the Treasury Department released its latest TBAC presentation, which explicitly highlights a strategy of using the Fed’s new Reserve Management Purchase program to shift more debt issuance toward short-end bills and reduce incremental supply of duration.

The data also seem to assume that, rather than being just a temporary measure used to stabilize bank reserves, RMP purchases will continue at their current levels (close to $500bn annually; see page 20) indefinitely. While not yet directly comparable to QE, these data points hint at a continuing shift to subordination of independent monetary policy to the fiscal needs of the government.

The Fed minutes also highlighted some general concerns with “vulnerabilities” in the private credit complex, which potentially got some additional validation this week when large alternative asset manager Blue Owl Capital permanently halted redemptions on one of its funds targeted at retail investors.

Blue Owl was able to sell off $1.4 billion in assets at nearly 100 cents on the dollar to meet withdrawal requests, so it’s too soon to say this is The Big OneTM, but it bears monitoring given ongoing fragility in parts of the illiquid credit complex, highlighted elsewhere this week by a sharp uptick in distressed loans linked to software companies.

On a similar note, the Wall Street Journal ran a feature on commercial real estate lenders increasingly moving into the foreclosure stage of non-performing loans rather than playing the “extend and pretend” game any longer, as delinquencies in many verticals of this market continue to increase to new multi-decade highs. Notably, less than half of the $100 billion of securitized CRE loans coming due this year are expected to make repayment at maturity (down from 75-80% in 2024 / 25).

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman introduced a new proposal that would reduce bank capital requirements for originating mortgages, the latest sign of bank regulators’ desire to incentivize more credit creation out of the traditional banking system.

Overseas, the US military continued to amass considerable military assets in the vicinity of Iran, with Vice President JD Vance indicating that Iran has yet to address key American demands.

For his part, President Trump suggested he’s considering a “limited strike” against the country. He also indicated he will move forward with new UAP disclosure, which pretty much seals the deal that we’re going to war.

Potentially buried under other headlines this week was the GDP report for Q4, which showed growth of only 1.4%, well below consensus estimates for 2.5% and juuuust a bit outside of the administration’s near-term target of 10-20%. A chunk of this gap was driven by the quarter’s lengthy government shutdown, though the Commerce Department suggested the actual net impact “could not be quantified.”

As 13F season ramps up again, a few notable updates have started to trickle out. Most significantly, two major Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth funds materially increased their IBIT positions during the fourth quarter even as bitcoin experienced a significant drawdown.

A representative from one of the funds reiterated to Bloomberg that they view bitcoin as a “store of value comparable to gold” and a part of the fund’s long-term strategy. On the flipside, Harvard’s endowment trimmed its IBIT position during the quarter, though it remains the university’s largest publicly reported liquid position.

While bitcoin’s price has yet to recover from its February selloff, bitcoin mining network hashrate has experienced an explosive V-shaped recovery over the past few weeks, climbing firmly above 1 ZH/s again and erasing most of the YTD decline.

Regulatory Update

The Trump administration issued a March 1st deadline for a CLARITY Act compromise between the banking and digital assets industries. White House Digital Assets Advisor Patrick Witt suggested talks on the stalled legislation are progressing well and he expects to meet this deadline.

Noteworthy

River published some preview snippets of the latest refresh of its Lightning Network research, which includes some pretty impressive statistics on the steady progress of bitcoin’s main second layer.

Longtime bitcoin developer Matt Corallo highlighted some interesting conservative proposals for preparing bitcoin against future advances in quantum computing without major architectural overhauls today.

CME announced it plans to begin offering 24/7 futures trading for digital assets beginning in May of this year.

The Wall Street Journal published a feature on various countries around the world increasingly pushing to add aggressive KYC to social media platforms in the name of protecting the kids.

Travel

OPNext, New York, Apr 16

Bitcoin 2026, Las Vegas, Apr 27-29

Anytime your kids are harassing you nonstop, just make them ...

2026-02-20T20:59:50Z

Anytime your kids are harassing you nonstop, just make them freeze and tell them “hold on, compacting our conversation so we can continue chatting”, then make them wait 5 minutes

Nostr event nevent1qqs8svz4z8g9r46n4dklvsxkl78c59er9enzha0gjpakwe5kpgv262qzyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gsk9m2gn

2026-02-20T04:44:48Z

Clankers gonna clank

On your agent->config page I see Telegram/Discord/Slack. What ...

2026-02-17T18:29:20Z

In reply to nevent1q…2pr7
_________________________

On your agent->config page I see Telegram/Discord/Slack. What about WhatsApp? Is there another way to configure WhatsApp, or can that option be added to the config page?

Nostr event nevent1qqsvcfftnche97h2xxef9zdltntkn999897p2xlm905qhsxxwj5k6ngzyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gsjenx0s

2026-02-17T18:21:32Z

Build the things you’ve always wished you’d had

Nostr event nevent1qqs2q6c4x7vpxxnnt26hxkszkpv7akd7pgne3c3vr2zj5fzruj8kd9czyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gsp20lrt

2026-02-16T21:05:27Z

In reply to nevent1q…6qcs
_________________________

brand new instance of clawi after deleting prior agent, no interactions yet, but only Telegram shows up as a configurable channel. How do I get the other cards to show up (WhatsApp, Discord, etc)

Once you start optimizing every small thing throws your sleep off ...

2026-02-15T18:19:22Z

In reply to nevent1q…tkhf
_________________________

Once you start optimizing every small thing throws your sleep off 🤣 now when I travel even lower quality air in a hotel room makes me sleep like shit

THE BEST BITCOIN NEWSLETTER, COURTESY OF @nprofile…dh4k ...

2026-02-15T02:15:47Z

THE BEST BITCOIN NEWSLETTER, COURTESY OF JOHNARNOLD (nprofile…dh4k)

quoting
naddr1qv…qd86

Have Your Agent Call My Agent: Ten31 Timestamp 936,562

Published: Saturday, February 14, 2026

Source: https://www.ten31timestamp.com/p/have-your-agent-call-my-agent-ten31

After realizing en masse this week that there might actually be something to this whole AI thing after all, Portfolio Managers worldwide proceeded to trigger rolling selloffs across industries ranging from commercial real estate and trucking to ratings agencies and insurance. The carnage was no doubt driven by a lot of kneejerk shooting – perhaps best exemplified by a karaoke company driving a 20% single-day drawdown in freight forwarding stocks – and we’d guess the questions saved for later will reveal a good deal of institutional inertia and implementation frictions that will insulate legacy models for longer than some of the most galaxy-brained AI maxis may imagine (everyone would probably benefit from brushing up on their James Burnham). That said, based on our own firsthand experience using the increasingly impressive tools, it’s tough to say a real technological acceleration isn’t happening, and it’s reasonable to think that the current pace of change will leave the state of employment looking very different over the next five years.

It was a poetic week, then, for the Congressional Budget Office to release its latest 10-year fiscal projections, which show an additional $1.4 trillion cumulative deficit added relative to last year’s estimates. The CBO’s forecast – which is generally biased toward underestimating deficits anyway – accounts for recent changes like the Big Beautiful Bill, but does not incorporate any of the projected AI disruption impacts that drove investors to dump stocks all week, highlighting just how tenuous the setup is for the Treasury and Fed. To be sure, a proliferation of extremely useful AI tools could give a big lift to gross productivity (and therefore nominal GDP, and therefore tax receipts), but if that turns out to be a jobless productivity boom, how much of that flow of receipts will be eaten up by automatic stabilizers and unemployment benefits? How many new federal programs like broad re-skilling will need to be authorized to manage that transition? How might that interact with a massive (and probably still underestimated) surge in defense spending and an industrial re-shoring agenda that offsets the decades-long subsidy of just-in-time international supply chains? Amid upcoming regime change at the Fed and all the recent talk of SOMA balance sheet reductions, we expect all these questions to be top of mind in Washington’s backrooms over the coming year, perhaps explaining why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent thought it prudent to suggest this week that the Fed won’t be reducing its balance sheet for “at least a year” as it weighs all the moving pieces.

Selected Portfolio News

Giga Energy brought its latest HPC site online:

Strike updated its loan liquidation policies to give users more flexibility during periods of volatility:

https://x.com/Strike/status/2021658197262774492#m

Media

Ten31 Managing Partner Matt Odell was featured on the Cyphertank show.

Market Updates

The US federal budget deficit came in at $696 billion for the first four months of this fiscal year, down Y/Y thanks largely to higher tariff revenues, but still on pace for $2.1 trillion in the full year.

The Congressional Budget Office also released its latest fiscal projections for the next decade, which show a $1.4 trillion cumulative increase over the period relative to last year’s forecast. The CBO now expects “large, historically unusual” deficits of 6-7% of GDP for the next 10 years.

President Trump tried to assuage concerns over the ballooning deficit this week by suggesting that we could simply not have a deficit anymore if new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh were to aggressively lower rates (we think the long end may beg to differ here without some creativity).

The President also suggested he thinks the economy can grow 15 or 20% under new Fed leadership. With the latest Atlanta Fed GDP Now print coming in at 3.7% for Q4, Mr. Warsh may have his work cut out for him on hitting this target.

However, the latest inflation data pointed to some air cover for the Fed, as both headline and Core CPI for January were a bit below expectations and are now in the mid-2% range, even as January’s topline jobs data also came in well above consensus (just don’t look at the latest downward revision to last year’s numbers, the largest such revision since 2009).

Policymakers will also need to contend with growing issues like student loan delinquencies, which have continued to rip vertically to new all-time highs, and a sluggish housing market, where existing home sales fell by over 8% in December as part of what the National Association of Realtors labels a “new housing crisis” (in other news, the National Barbers’ Guild reported a historic national deficiency of haircuts last month).

Elsewhere, new headwinds to the budget may emerge via AI’s indirect impacts on capital gains tax receipts, as a variety of non-software sectors like commercial real estate endured violent selloffs driven by investors attempting to price the potential for broad, near-term AI disruption.

Meanwhile, UBS said it foresees increasing vulnerability in the $3.5 trillion private credit market – much of which is tied to traditional software companies – from the accelerating pace of AI improvement, with analysts forecasting up to $120 billion of defaults this year and potential for less likely but much more violent tail risks.

Amid all these crosswinds, Bloomberg notably ran a feature on Kevin Warsh’s desire for a new Fed-Treasury accord – something we’ve been flagging in this newsletter for close to a year – though it remains unclear exactly what this means in Warsh’s mind.

As a potential hint, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned this week that – despite frequent discussion of shrinking the Fed balance sheet in the near term – the central bank is unlikely to make any such changes for “at least a year.”

Under the hood, it was also a busy week for the international chess board defining the administration’s policy options. Most notably, pro-Trump Japanese Prime Minister (and former Abenomics acolyte) Sanae Takaichi won a landslide victory after calling a snap election, while her party took a supermajority in the country’s legislature.

The US, Japan, and Europe also announced the initiation of a critical minerals pact whereby key allies will cooperate with the US to mine, process, and stockpile materials key to national defense and artificial intelligence.

President Trump is reportedly considering withdrawing from the USMCA, the North American trade agreement that replaced NAFTA in 2020 and which is due for its first renegotiation this summer, likely another move to exert leverage over Canada and Mexico.

Congress attempted to throw sand in these gears this week with a vote to roll back Trump’s tariffs on Canada specifically, though the President will likely just veto this measure. That said, other reports suggest Trump is weighing his own rollback of some steel and aluminum tariffs because, in a shocking turn of events no one could have predicted, they are driving increased prices for consumers.

Either way, we may be close to some real and potentially market-moving clarity on this overall agenda, with the Supreme Court’s next wave of rulings, which could include a decision on the constitutionality of Trump’s tariffs, to be released in the next 1-2 weeks.

China’s regulators made headlines this week by urging domestic banks to avoid and reduce US Treasury exposure, though official data already suggest exposure has been trending down for years.

Reports elsewhere suggested that Russia is exploring the opposite path by quietly preparing proposals for a new partnership with the Trump administration that would see it move back toward the dollar nexus. Russia’s central bank quickly threw cold water on this idea, and as we all know, you should never believe something until it has been officially denied.

Bitcoin’s price generally stabilized close to $70,000 for much of the week, but Blockfills – an institutional digital assets platform backed by Susquehanna that handled $60 billion of volume last year – halted withdrawals and limited trading this week. This is the first iteration of a classic bear market headline that we’ve seen this cycle, and we would be surprised if it’s the last.

Regulatory Update

Amid ongoing conflicts between the “crypto” industry and legacy banks, Secretary Bessent again reiterated his view on the importance of passing the CLARITY Act, criticizing a group of “nihilists in the industry” that prefer “no regulation over very good regulation.”

In a move we can’t imagine will help the progress here, the American Bankers Association submitted a formal request for the OCC to pause new national bank charter grants to various crypto companies including Coinbase.

Brazilian lawmakers reintroduced legislation to initiate a national strategic bitcoin reserve. If passed, the law would allow the country to accumulate up to 1 million bitcoin over five years.

Noteworthy

BIP360, a bitcoin improvement proposal that could help pave the way for long-term quantum resistance, was officially merged into the BIPs repository, a step toward potential eventual activation.

Dr. Alex Wissner-Goss, a prominent physicist / computer scientist, futurist, and AI doomposter extraordinaire, referenced an OpenClaw agent autonomously using bitcoin’s lightning network as part of the latest entry in his widely read series on AI acceleration.

Lightning Labs launched a new L402 toolkit designed for AI agents to more easily integrate lightning payments.

Travel

OPNext, New York, Apr 16

Bitcoin 2026, Las Vegas, Apr 27-29

Tried reaching you over email—did you receive it?

2026-02-10T16:08:25Z

In reply to nevent1q…sj0m
_________________________

Tried reaching you over email—did you receive it?

How are you keeping the info private from the LLMs?

2026-02-10T01:28:49Z

In reply to nevent1q…2h6y
_________________________

How are you keeping the info private from the LLMs?

Nostr event nevent1qqsdf8yyurwg6ylsnn02j7edw0ytkgy3868gkzhkuqz4z2e3xy7xf5szyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gs5spz4j

2026-02-08T19:08:11Z

Less is more, now more than ever

#note12ed…sgg5 checking the bitcoin price is not one of them

2026-02-06T19:17:00Z

quoting note12ed…sgg5

There are better things you could be doing with your time

checking the bitcoin price is not one of them

Keep going, you’re doing great!

2026-02-05T05:27:46Z

In reply to nevent1q…qdks
_________________________

Keep going, you’re doing great!

Nostr event nevent1qqs9vkkx28g9k4wfh5he042cgcsxq5mrr3ac0xwdycntkm959yqmnzszyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gsgvylx7

2026-02-02T04:34:20Z

There are better things you could be doing with your time

https://www.radiofrance.fr/fip

2026-02-01T04:35:07Z

https://www.radiofrance.fr/fip

It’s special to find someone who does their work with a genuine ...

2026-02-01T02:30:48Z

It’s special to find someone who does their work with a genuine smile and joy

Strong endorse ...

2026-01-30T17:01:01Z

Strong endorse

Every morning is a test of whether you can still put on socks ...

2026-01-11T04:02:14Z

Every morning is a test of whether you can still put on socks standing up

Nostr event nevent1qqs8t6sxqkd7lrh28z0k7ufxrcar8997v5jlrz6n7nxkk36n0x9tg6gzyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gsjjs9xn

2026-01-04T21:24:18Z

The work never ends.

Nostr event nevent1qqsdg7e2gmszpts8x9ncggtkp7ezx47ulph2hzgnmlk5tqrq9f9h9uczyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gsvt7g4m

2025-11-25T19:06:32Z

You have to exercise perseverance

Nostr event nevent1qqsrwfayrwn8tf5w6x2z3mtecgk9avn3pahjp427algnrcw4skhy5xqzyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gsqua645

2025-11-13T04:57:01Z

When everyone be ziggin it’s time to be zaggin ✌🏻

Ten31: an investment platform, not a VC fund ...

2025-10-31T15:28:31Z

Ten31: an investment platform, not a VC fund

https://primal.net/gilliam/ten31-an-investment-platform-for-bitcoin-adoption-

Nostr event nevent1qqs0l6xzzevhsksn774jvz72rgxphxal67t5745fj6tlqajjc4vkdmczyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gstufyz2

2025-10-27T03:40:14Z

Miracles happen every day

Solid domain

2025-10-20T19:08:49Z

In reply to nevent1q…6uht
_________________________

Solid domain

Sometimes the smallest wins can be the biggest ones, giving you ...

2025-10-20T19:00:05Z

Sometimes the smallest wins can be the biggest ones, giving you an outsized emotional boost

Nah, I’m good ...

2025-10-12T21:35:29Z

Nah, I’m good

If you love it then keep doing it

2025-10-11T02:31:27Z

In reply to nevent1q…ymjq
_________________________

If you love it then keep doing it

Nostr event nevent1qqszta9x6pee69r49yf7flnw0esmgt6fghhr9g4aq9tpx4swyrx9e7szyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gsn48l2y

2025-10-02T05:00:33Z

Let your phone die more often

Nostr event nevent1qqsfvznkw6fr3xchy2ac9mvqkp39y9w0s4237amsd4jxdfxgcl0n25gzyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gskqpknn

2025-09-26T20:38:45Z

There is no easy button

No doubt about that, but it’s only as hard as you allow it to ...

2025-09-26T17:56:09Z

In reply to nevent1q…z8pg
_________________________

No doubt about that, but it’s only as hard as you allow it to be

It’s kind of like when I tell people you can have as much will power as you allow yourself to have

Nostr event nevent1qqsp0nzzza9mwchgu0fynzafpjmu8q4awcxpy0wmllgnpuy98pcjstszyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gs9eckp6

2025-09-25T17:19:33Z

You can just lower your time preference

"Darkness cannot drive out darkness, only light can do that. ...

2025-09-19T02:56:10Z

"Darkness cannot drive out darkness, only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate, only love can do that."
Martin Luther King, Strength to Love, 1963.

Just tried this again and failed miserably

2025-09-18T17:38:56Z

In reply to nevent1q…96tl
_________________________

Just tried this again and failed miserably

Nostr event nevent1qqsrtypytwukjk7hasshtm36645kc7ez5x7lnjq88guctcyfh8a0rpgzyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gsnmt455

2025-09-14T18:37:47Z

You can do amazing things if you decide to

https://youtu.be/lOWfCVQBixs

2025-09-12T21:32:53Z

https://youtu.be/lOWfCVQBixs

Yeah I felt like I had seen it before. Thanks for digging it up ...

2025-09-10T03:07:00Z

In reply to nevent1q…l69p
_________________________

Yeah I felt like I had seen it before. Thanks for digging it up again, it’s solid

Did you make this?

2025-09-10T01:04:05Z

In reply to nevent1q…g7xy
_________________________

Did you make this?

In my experience 90%+ of first class seats on flights are taken ...

2025-09-08T19:32:46Z

In my experience 90%+ of first class seats on flights are taken by boomers.

Nostr event nevent1qqsqyaqdxc3kqrd8rmdpqamm47f5z3ty9wzle2dtasz7ycwnkufysuczyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gsx0flfc

2025-09-08T00:25:14Z

In reply to nevent1q…sxvg
_________________________

https://www.ironmind-store.com/Captains-of-Crush174-Grippers/products/8/

Treasuries will come, treasuries will go. Only those with sats ...

2025-09-07T03:24:22Z

Treasuries will come, treasuries will go. Only those with sats flow will remain.

Nostr event nevent1qqswt3znv2sd2mhnwhcp0n9dafqqjcr5h9pfr9ap3se8p7qaldj7kmczyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gsxd008y

2025-08-29T14:41:40Z

Started stacking’ sats, I been geeked ever since

There are only 3 ways to outperform bitcoin: 1. Leverage: adding ...

2025-08-28T04:10:25Z

There are only 3 ways to outperform bitcoin:

1. Leverage: adding leverage can work, but it adds risk and must be understood.
2. Multiple expansion: can’t bank on it, as it can be driven by factors outside your control (and can go the opposite direction).
3. Sats flows: least risky, most durable avenue to outperform bitcoin (and the most under your control).

Focus on sats flows.

@npub1guh…6hjy

2025-08-22T04:04:10Z

In reply to nevent1q…he9x
_________________________

MartyBent (npub1guh…6hjy)

Bad ass. If I want to get my son a good yo yo, what do you ...

2025-08-21T03:52:44Z

In reply to nevent1q…wvwt
_________________________

Bad ass. If I want to get my son a good yo yo, what do you recommend?

What kind of yo yo is that

2025-08-21T02:37:57Z

In reply to nevent1q…uv8p
_________________________

What kind of yo yo is that

Nostr event nevent1qqs04jr0spxay454z8kt6tzswhydjqae7cr5xeeaynpkhzld6lu5djszyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gsfh729j

2025-08-20T01:06:08Z

quoting
nevent1q…lmc6
I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.

Nostr event nevent1qqsp8ju6up237263k9th9xrj6jc75d7z8fzcngs0h9kp7snj9l9vzwgzyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gs9f3cqt

2025-08-17T12:49:03Z

You can just build a new bitcoin miner

Sats flow generating companies are more rare than bitcoin ...

2025-08-14T12:59:27Z

Sats flow generating companies are more rare than bitcoin treasury companies

Deliver value at a lower cost than you can get paid for it

2025-08-14T11:13:09Z

In reply to nevent1q…t5yc
_________________________

Deliver value at a lower cost than you can get paid for it

Nostr event nevent1qqsxnt4ue6kuem5mqmgvjv5z2qdm5sd9je2lzpnlqsyepan4n04gelqzyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gsvyv8er

2025-08-14T02:52:45Z

SATS FLOW REMAINS KING

Ten31 Timestamp 909,295 by @nprofile…dh4k @nprofile…qhsh ...

2025-08-11T14:30:01Z

Ten31 Timestamp 909,295 by JOHNARNOLD (nprofile…dh4k) TEN31 (nprofile…qhsh)

nostr:naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzpp6dkmfdk7eeqd0702kpn6p6fqjhj90r048j54wtfjnxhckh025gqyxhwumn8ghj7cnjvghxjme0qyt8wumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcqze6x2m3nxykhg6tdv4ehgctdwqknjvpexgun2j3fspn

ENGAGE https://youtu.be/IdTMDpizis8 #nevent1q…mhex

2025-08-08T05:03:59Z

ENGAGE

https://youtu.be/IdTMDpizis8

quoting
nevent1q…mhex
Will you sit by and let the enemy use the weapons against you? Or will you pick them up and fight back?

naddr1qv…a9yt

Audio works on web app but for some reason not on my mobile app ...

2025-08-08T04:58:16Z

In reply to nevent1q…5c99
_________________________

Audio works on web app but for some reason not on my mobile app 🤷

Nostr event nevent1qqsd7d8pq0gdf68s2q6qnkztaev26c0e3ylj5gge4j8madkc99eya2gzyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gsyk6n3g

2025-08-08T04:50:36Z

ENGAGE

quoting
nevent1q…qcyp
Will you sit by and let the enemy use the weapons against you? Or will you pick them up and fight back?

naddr1qv…a9yt

Tell them to pay with Strike, they can pay bitcoin invoices with ...

2025-08-06T04:22:26Z

In reply to nevent1q…6xcd
_________________________

Tell them to pay with Strike, they can pay bitcoin invoices with fiat easily

Ten31 Timestamp 908,247 ...

2025-08-02T17:05:39Z

Ten31 Timestamp 908,247

https://primal.net/gilliam/ten31-timestamp-908247

On a bitcoin standard your batting average will be much more ...

2025-07-28T00:55:32Z

On a bitcoin standard your batting average will be much more important than it is now. The consequences of bad decisions and bad results are diminished when holes can be filled with the money printer and losses are absorbed by the masses.

Nostr event nevent1qqszvp6htqmqe05wlmrypatl3759zufr7q8et00wmvnvxg0hwacgydczyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gshr6hr2

2025-07-25T17:30:12Z

In reply to nevent1q…pcqd
_________________________

https://primal.net/e/nevent1qqsdmqgkv469uyfxa7nn4vlqx6fgmya6gxyl7yt5x0yyve3zx0nd86scy2smx

Nostr event nevent1qqsyjqtxdhn4uksuxqhqdnxhta5jp0c62mmp0caqnfd6z92lseu93kszyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gsmuqkaa

2025-07-25T17:29:16Z

In reply to nevent1q…0q9w
_________________________

https://primal.net/e/nevent1qqsdmqgkv469uyfxa7nn4vlqx6fgmya6gxyl7yt5x0yyve3zx0nd86scy2smx

I think as time goes on it will become easier to get a return in ...

2025-07-24T20:39:28Z

In reply to nevent1q…wfvk
_________________________

I think as time goes on it will become easier to get a return in bitcoin denominated terms. Right now, it’s incredibly hard because the purchasing power is going up much more significantly than it will in the future.

In the future, behind every capital investment decision there ...

2025-07-24T03:44:16Z

In the future, behind every capital investment decision there will be two critical questions:

1) how much sats flow do I have at my disposal to invest? [input]
2) what are the expected sats flows from such an investment? [output]

You will only have sats flow to invest by having previously provided value, and you will only generate incremental sats flows by continuing to provide value in the future.

Simply holding bitcoin is not a strategy to outperform bitcoin. ...

2025-07-23T03:43:43Z

Simply holding bitcoin is *not* a strategy to outperform bitcoin.

Generating sats flows *is* a strategy to outperform bitcoin.

Cool to see last week #nevent1q…y7ja #naddr1qq…ad0r

2025-07-21T14:36:36Z

Cool to see last week

quoting
nevent1q…y7ja

TechCrunch ran a detailed feature on Jack Dorsey’s $10 million “And Other Stuff” initiative, which will look to fund experimental software leveraging the Nostr protocol. The article specifically highlights the Cashu protocol, which was developed by Ten31 open source grantee Calle.

nostr:naddr1qqt8getwxvcj6arfd4jhxarpd4cz6wfsxcerxdgpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgq3qsaxmd5km0vusxhl84tqeaqaysftezh3h6ne22h95efntutth42yqxpqqqp65wh3ad0r

Banger @npub1g0e…l966 #nevent1q…yjme #naddr1qq…6maf

2025-07-21T14:21:14Z

Banger JOHNARNOLD (npub1g0e…l966)

quoting
nevent1q…yjme

Amid bitcoin’s monster week, hedge fund magnate and prolific philanthropist John Arnold suggested bitcoin is a safe, responsible investment comparable to mutual funds or the work of established artists. This John Arnold and Ten31’s own John Arnold are collectively worth billions, and we believe their agreement on bitcoin’s value is still not priced in.

nostr:naddr1qqt8getwxvcj6arfd4jhxarpd4cz6wfsx5ergvgpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgq3qsaxmd5km0vusxhl84tqeaqaysftezh3h6ne22h95efntutth42yqxpqqqp65wtd6maf

Ten31 Timestamp https://primal.net/gilliam/ten31-timestamp-906235

2025-07-21T14:16:06Z

Ten31 Timestamp

https://primal.net/gilliam/ten31-timestamp-906235

Truth

2025-07-19T02:07:11Z

In reply to nevent1q…ug3g
_________________________

Truth

Sats flows provide freedom. Control your own destiny.

2025-07-18T18:34:00Z

Sats flows provide freedom.

Control your own destiny.

Nostr event nevent1qqsxgg8z24fx7htqrzr3z5hvzfvm4sykl9mzx4y7t7edun94kj9jwrgzyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gsecu5kq

2025-07-18T18:02:29Z

Flow the sats you want to receive in the world

Have gotten so many inbounds from people who are planning or ...

2025-07-18T15:26:00Z

Have gotten so many inbounds from people who are planning or contemplating starting a bitcoin treasury company. Last cycle it was people starting mining companies. Rarely if ever get an inbound from someone explicitly targeting a sats flow strategy.

Satoshi said, "Let there be sats flows." - Genesis block ...

2025-07-17T17:31:00Z

Satoshi said, "Let there be sats flows." - Genesis block 1:21

The answer to that math equation is zero. Doesn’t matter if you ...

2025-07-17T17:15:03Z

In reply to nevent1q…eclg
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The answer to that math equation is zero. Doesn’t matter if you keep reducing denomination. Negative sats flows eventually leads to zero.

Teahupoʻo?

2025-07-17T17:07:26Z

In reply to nevent1q…u3nt
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Teahupoʻo?

In each step the reduction is a smaller unit. First one half, ...

2025-07-17T15:28:38Z

In reply to nevent1q…5p0k
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In each step the reduction is a smaller unit. First one half, then one fourth, then one eighth, and so on.

THE ROAD TO A BITCOIN STANDARD IS PAVED WITH SUSTAINABLE SATS ...

2025-07-17T09:44:00Z

THE ROAD TO A BITCOIN STANDARD IS PAVED WITH SUSTAINABLE SATS FLOWS.

Something kinda like this ...

2025-07-17T01:05:46Z

In reply to nevent1q…nm4v
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Something kinda like this

There is a extremely positive correlation between happiness and ...

2025-07-16T20:33:00Z

There is a extremely positive correlation between happiness and generating sats flows.

Negative sats flow is not long term sustainable. What happens ...

2025-07-16T16:21:38Z

In reply to nevent1q…ctvg
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Negative sats flow is not long term sustainable. What happens once all your sats are gone? Doesn’t matter if value of sats is going up if you have none.

Nostr event nevent1qqsyg72p26nygwzne8d9nfyqpyu2mdg4wud5aqpl4n7jffy7c573l2szyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gsrvzc9a

2025-07-16T12:42:09Z

The only evidence of creating value is generating sats flows ...

2025-07-16T10:45:00Z

The only evidence of creating value is generating sats flows

Nostr event nevent1qqszxn0t29xeqj4a6fxeu3dk0l93y9h39x3suhg4hf0dfv2x955xh0szyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gs2n7vtm

2025-07-15T18:30:00Z

Sats flows are what dreams are made of

Sats flows are the only way to sustainably add bitcoin to your ...

2025-07-15T11:30:00Z

Sats flows are the only way to sustainably add bitcoin to your balance sheet. The capacity to continue capital markets transactions will eventually deplete.

which fund? is it truly only for bitcoin treasury companies, or ...

2025-07-15T04:26:43Z

In reply to nevent1q…zvr6
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which fund? is it truly only for bitcoin treasury companies, or all kinds of treasury companies? i've seen the latter, hadn't seen anything targeting only bitcoin treasury companies

Nostr event nevent1qqsfa3eawl0usnqjhh92qdlsqazcrjkvd6kzampy0j7kz7luegpqa6czyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gslxagtv

2025-07-14T18:28:00Z

Don't chase the shiny object, chase sats flows.

Sounds simple, but sustainable sats flows are difficult ...

2025-07-14T14:01:00Z

Sounds simple, but sustainable sats flows are difficult

An individual or company that doesn’t generate sats flows ...

2025-07-13T02:51:05Z

An individual or company that doesn’t generate sats flows redistributes wealth over time to others who do.

You can read this week’s Ten31 timestamp by @nprofile…pvnv on ...

2025-07-12T16:53:43Z

You can read this week’s Ten31 timestamp by JOHNARNOLD (nprofile…pvnv) on nostr as well

https://primal.net/gilliam/ten31-timestamp-905241

quoting
nevent1q…6gp4
If you aren’t reading Ten31’s Timestamp what are you even doing with your life?!?! TEN31 (nprofile…728k) https://www.ten31timestamp.com/p/ten31-timestamp-905241

Works like a charm too

2025-07-12T01:00:57Z

In reply to nevent1q…gd7z
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Works like a charm too

🤝

2025-07-12T00:58:23Z

In reply to nevent1q…6jfs
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🤝

Nostr event nevent1qqsznw2v09nnn9gk5lh9569q469e4l066gr9sjyyxax74qhumseq8pqzyzr5mdkjmdanjq6lu74vr85r5jp90y27xl209f2ukn9xd03dw74gspagqhd

2025-07-11T16:11:00Z

Can there be a bubble in bitcoin treasury companies? Yes. Can ...

2025-07-11T12:54:00Z

Can there be a bubble in bitcoin treasury companies? Yes.

Can there be a bubble in sats flow generating companies? No.

No vibes dejected

2025-07-11T01:17:28Z

In reply to nevent1q…hh60
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No vibes dejected