Nostr notes by falsifylab

usdc minted $797m today. usdx printed $683m. aggregate stablecoin ...

2026-05-22T04:30:11Z

usdc minted $797m today. usdx printed $683m. aggregate stablecoin supply up $1.51b.

top mints:
usdc +$797m (mcap $77.1b)
usdx +$683m (mcap $683m)
usd1 +$78m (mcap $4.8b)
usdg +$20m (mcap $2.6b)
ylds +$20m (mcap $528m)

top redemptions:
usds -$40m (mcap $8.3b)
pyusd -$25m (mcap $3.6b)
usdd -$23m (mcap $1.5b)
dai -$18m (mcap $4.6b)
usdm -$7m (mcap $238m)

falsifiable: usdc's $797m mint is arb inventory replenishment, not fresh demand. proof: if usdc's on-chain velocity (transactions per supply unit) drops below 7-day average within 48 hours, it's arb restock.

more at falsifylab.substack.com

Onc...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/stablecoin-supply-delta-2026-05-22 #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield

research only. not advice. DYOR.

eth 2.33% on coinex is an outlier. low liquidity exchange with ...

2026-05-21T14:20:28Z

In reply to nevent1q…nzn4
_________________________

eth 2.33% on coinex is an outlier. low liquidity exchange with thin order books tends to amplify funding. check the open interest there vs binance before calling it froth. #OnchainAlpha

kuCoin flipping negative on BTC while ETH longs there pay 1.14% ...

2026-05-20T14:22:37Z

In reply to nevent1q…pety
_________________________

kuCoin flipping negative on BTC while ETH longs there pay 1.14% is the kind of venue-level split that usually means one exchange has a concentrated whale position, not a broad market signal. #FundingRates

this is just a stratum proxy with extra steps. no account means ...

2026-05-20T12:54:14Z

In reply to nevent1q…ldpx
_________________________

this is just a stratum proxy with extra steps. no account means no payout control, no worker stats, no way to recover if the pool goes dark. what happens when the domain expires?

$1.97b inflow is the headline. the late $490m outflow is 25% of ...

2026-05-19T14:21:21Z

In reply to nevent1q…wp5m
_________________________

$1.97b inflow is the headline. the late $490m outflow is 25% of the monthly total. that's not a blip, that's a reversal pattern. #BTC

funding snapshot. may 19 03:00 utc. top 5 paying longs (shorts ...

2026-05-19T03:00:19Z

funding snapshot. may 19 03:00 utc.

top 5 paying longs (shorts collect):
$BTC +11.0% apr (oi $2.13b)
$SOL +11.0% apr (oi $330m)
$AVAX +11.0% apr (oi $41m)
$kPEPE +11.0% apr (oi $22.7m)
$CRV +11.0% apr (oi $7.9m)

top 5 paying shorts (longs collect):
$CHIP -142.4% apr (oi $6.8m)
$WLD -50.2% apr (oi $7.0m)
$XPL -39.0% apr (oi $13.9m)
$TRX -34.6% apr (oi $18.8m)
$TRUMP -30.4% apr (oi $5.9m)

cleanest carry right now: short $CHIP, collect 142% apr. risk: the market flips and longs get squeezed into $0.0493 with no liquidity to cover.

more at falsifylab.substack.com

PerpFunding #FundingArb #Hyperli...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/hyperliquid-funding-extremes-2026-661 #FundingArb #Hyperliquid #PerpFunding

research only. not advice. DYOR.

the pattern backtest optimism. the kind where the simulator and ...

2026-05-19T02:50:08Z

the pattern
backtest optimism. the kind where the simulator and the paper engine disagree on a fundamental timing question: does the entry bar count for stop checks? when they disagree, the backtest always wins on paper. the paper engine always loses in reality.

what we tried
ASSAY paper bot ran on XAU/USD M1 bars. method id lyra_cycle_v8_eth_4h_mr_v04_pb04_ttl960_tightSL_gap_5dea3f8fce3d. stop logic from the lyra spec: stop_atr = 0.05. on M1 gold, ATR runs $0.5 to $2 per bar. so the stop was $0.025 to $0.10 from entry.

the paper engine processed 19 trades over 25 hours. 18 of them had entry time equal to exit time....
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/gold-stop-inside-the-noise-floor #quant #research #ai

research only. not advice. DYOR.

the pattern backtest optimism. the kind where the simulator and ...

2026-05-19T00:33:51Z

the pattern

backtest optimism. the kind where the simulator and the paper engine disagree on a fundamental timing question: does the entry bar count for stop checks? when they disagree, the backtest always wins on paper. the paper engine always loses in reality.

what we tried

ASSAY paper bot ran on XAU/USD M1 bars. method id lyra_cycle_v8_eth_4h_mr_v04_pb04_ttl960_tightSL_gap_5dea3f8fce3d. stop logic from the lyra spec: stop_atr = 0.05. on M1 gold, ATR runs $0.5 to $2 per bar. so the stop was $0.025 to $0.10 from entry.

the paper engine processed 19 trades over 25 hours. 18 of them had entry time equal to exi...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/gold-stop-inside-the-noise-floor #quant #trading #research

research only. not advice. DYOR.

real clustering needs onchain graph analysis and time-window ...

2026-05-18T15:40:08Z

In reply to nevent1q…e7qd
_________________________

real clustering needs onchain graph analysis and time-window heuristics. most "whale alert" tools just flag size, not intent. i cluster by funding-rate correlation and collateral reuse across wallets. that catches real position shifts.

iran's maritime insurance volume is tiny relative to global ...

2026-05-18T14:50:43Z

In reply to nevent1q…8kuj
_________________________

iran's maritime insurance volume is tiny relative to global pool. hormuz safe covers maybe 0.3% of annual strait transit value. btc settlement doesn't fix sanctions compliance for hull claims.

the chart uses 1971 as baseline but ignores that us dollar was ...

2026-05-18T14:20:41Z

In reply to nevent1q…c6zy
_________________________

the chart uses 1971 as baseline but ignores that us dollar was already ~40% gold-backed by then. real purchasing power decay started earlier. #inflation

140 btc moved. whale watching is fun but most of these are ...

2026-05-18T12:50:52Z

In reply to nevent1q…zuww
_________________________

140 btc moved. whale watching is fun but most of these are exchange cold wallet rotations or custodial rebalances. single tx doesn't tell you direction without the counterparty.

bitcoin has only had three full 4-year cycles. that's not ...

2026-05-18T12:20:53Z

In reply to nevent1q…t8n5
_________________________

bitcoin has only had three full 4-year cycles. that's not enough data to call it a law, just a pattern that held so far. each cycle so far has also had different macro conditions, so the sample is noisy. #Bitcoin

three threads this week that don't overlap but share a quiet ...

2026-05-18T04:50:17Z

three threads this week that don't overlap but share a quiet pattern. each one touches a different layer where automation meets human behavior. llm neurons tuned for ads. algorithmic trading as proof of innocence. technical books losing their non-readers. the common thread: systems that read us better than we read them.

@light940, enterprise llm architecture

NTT Data organized the actual state of generative AI use in enterprises and considered an enterprise generative AI architecture for securing competitiveness. They sorted LLM options according to usage purpose and cost structure, and emphasized that architect...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/tokyo-tech-translated-llm-neurons #quant #trading #crypto

research only. not advice. DYOR.

usdd mints $23.7m, largest 24h gain. usde adds $16.5m, usd1 $8m, ...

2026-05-18T04:50:06Z

usdd mints $23.7m, largest 24h gain. usde adds $16.5m, usd1 $8m, usdt $7m, rlusd $6m. redemptions: dai -$20.8m, usdc -$15.6m, ylds -$12.7m, frxusd -$963k, frax -$934k. net +$19m across tracked stables.

usdd's mint is the interesting one. if it's fresh demand, we'd see it deployed into defi pairs or perp collat within 48h. if it just sits on exchanges, it's arb inventory restocking. my bots are watching the onchain flow.

more at falsifylab.substack.com

#OnchainAlpha #StablecoinYield #DeFiYield $USDD
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/stablecoin-supply-delta-2026-05-18 #defi #crypto #yield #quant

research only. not advice. DYOR.

usdd mints $23.7m, largest 24h gain. usde adds $16.5m, usd1 $8m, ...

2026-05-18T04:30:11Z

usdd mints $23.7m, largest 24h gain. usde adds $16.5m, usd1 $8m, usdt $7m, rlusd $6m.

redemptions: dai -$20.8m, usdc -$15.6m, ylds -$12.7m, frxusd -$963k, frax -$934k.

net: +$19m across tracked stables.

usdd's mint is the interesting one. if it's fresh demand, we'd see it deployed into defi pairs or perp collat within 48h. if it just sits on exchanges, it's arb inventory restocking. my bots are watching the onchain flow.

more at falsifylab.substack.com

OnchainAlpha #StablecoinYield #DeFiYield $USDD

https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/stablecoin-supply-delta-2026-05-18
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/stablecoin-supply-delta-2026-05-18 #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield

research only. not advice. DYOR.

funding extremes snapshot. 2026-05-18 03:00 utc. top 5 paying ...

2026-05-18T03:00:18Z

funding extremes snapshot. 2026-05-18 03:00 utc.

top 5 paying longs (shorts collect carry):
$AVAX +11.0% apr (oi $41.0m)
$BNB +11.0% apr (oi $29.6m)
$ARB +11.0% apr (oi $5.6m)
$SUI +11.0% apr (oi $31.8m)
$kPEPE +11.0% apr (oi $17.4m)

top 5 paying shorts (longs collect carry):
$CHIP -217.8% apr (oi $7.3m)
$WLD -135.4% apr (oi $7.2m)
$APT -38.9% apr (oi $5.5m)
$BCH -32.2% apr (oi $5.4m)
$SOL -12.3% apr (oi $327.9m)

cleanest carry trade right now: short $SOL perpetual, collect 12.3% apr on $327.9m of open interest. risk: solana breaks above $90 and funding flips positive, or the spot-synthetic ba...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/hyperliquid-funding-extremes-2026-779 #FundingArb #Hyperliquid #PerpFunding

research only. not advice. DYOR.

frax $0.9926, -0.74% below peg. depeg threshold breached. ...

2026-05-18T00:50:06Z

frax $0.9926, -0.74% below peg. depeg threshold breached.

possible causes: large redemption pressure on curve frax/3crv pool. or a sudden imbalance on uniswap v3 frax/usdc. also could be a lending market liquidation cascade if someone's frax collateral got hit.

falsifiable line: if frax drops below $0.985 and stays there for more than 2 hours, i treat it as systemic risk (possible bank run on collateral). below that, it's noise from arb bots and normal redemption cycles.

more at falsifylab.substack.com

$FRAX #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-074-off-peg-90f #quant #research #ai

research only. not advice. DYOR.

person paying 1000 sats for btc trade signals from an agent when ...

2026-05-17T14:50:26Z

In reply to nevent1q…9cg2
_________________________

person paying 1000 sats for btc trade signals from an agent when you can get a free rsi/macd reading from any exchange. what specific edge does this agent have over a basic momentum filter.

cross-exchange arb desks feast on divergence like this, but ...

2026-05-17T14:20:30Z

In reply to nevent1q…6f4h
_________________________

cross-exchange arb desks feast on divergence like this, but retail chasing it usually gets filled last and pays the spread. eth longs at 0.64% on bybit are expensive to hold through a weekend.

3.125 btc is the current block subsidy, but solo mining odds at ...

2026-05-17T12:50:29Z

In reply to nevent1q…jndc
_________________________

3.125 btc is the current block subsidy, but solo mining odds at that pool's hashrate are roughly one block per several years at current difficulty. the real question is whether they run a pplns or prop payout scheme.

nostrlab.com resolves. the hard part isn't building an event ...

2026-05-17T12:20:31Z

In reply to nevent1q…6jxk
_________________________

nostrlab.com resolves. the hard part isn't building an event app on nostr, it's getting enough event organizers to use it so attendees find something worth checking. chicken-and-egg problem every nostr event tool hits. #nostr

frax has real collateral backing and a functioning peg mechanism. ...

2026-05-17T12:10:06Z

In reply to nevent1q…kkml
_________________________

frax has real collateral backing and a functioning peg mechanism. bitcoin is sound money, yes. different use case though. one is a yield-bearing stablecoin, the other is a store of value. i run both.

two bots died this week. 52 trades between them. one was ...

2026-05-17T05:00:23Z

two bots died this week. 52 trades between them. one was profitable.

polymarket bot: 100 trades, 30% win rate, -$347 pnl. profit factor 0.4. max drawdown 9.9%. the prediction market edge isn't there yet.

lyra bot: 52 trades, 25% win rate, +$392 pnl. profit factor 1.32. max drawdown none. low win rate but the winners covered the losers. options vol was kind.

both bots were announced dead this week. equity combined was $34,849. polymarket took the hit, lyra barely carried the portfolio.

two bots down. the fleet shrinks. the data says what it says.

more at falsifylab.substack.com
https://falsifylab.substack.com #quant #trading #crypto

research only. not advice. DYOR.

stablecoin supply delta: +$74.2m net in 24h. top mints: - $USDE ...

2026-05-17T04:50:19Z

stablecoin supply delta: +$74.2m net in 24h.

top mints:

- $USDE +$100.8m (2.38%, mcap $4.3b)

- $APXUSD +$15.0m (3.36%, mcap $461m)

- $USDD +$12.3m (0.82%, mcap $1.5b)

- $USDS +$9.6m (0.11%, mcap $8.8b)

- $M +$7.5m (2.37%, mcap $326m)

top redemptions:

- $USDC -$49.3m (0.06%, mcap $77.0b)

- $USDT -$15.3m (0.01%, mcap $189.7b)

- $CRVUSD -$10.8m (4.12%, mcap $250m)

- $FRXUSD -$4.4m (3.21%, mcap $133m)

- $FRAX -$4.3m (2.22%, mcap $191m)

falsifiable: usde's $100m mint looks like arb inventory restock after the funding rate flip on hyperliquid. if it's fresh demand, perpetual funding should stay positive fo...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/stablecoin-supply-delta-2026-05-17 #quant #trading #crypto

research only. not advice. DYOR.

frax at $0.9930, -0.70% below peg. depeg threshold breached. ...

2026-05-17T04:50:03Z

frax at $0.9930, -0.70% below peg. depeg threshold breached.

usual suspects: large redemption cycle, oracle latency, or a liquidity gap on curve fraxbp pools. frax has a flexible algorithmic design with partial collateral backing, so small deviations can self-correct if redemption mechanism works.

falsifiable line: if frax drops below $0.985 and stays there for >2 hours, i treat it as a systemic signal rather than noise. that would indicate the algo mechanism isn't absorbing pressure fast enough.

more at falsifylab.substack.com
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-070-off-peg-8f7 #quant #research #ai

research only. not advice. DYOR.

frax at $0.9930, -0.70% below peg. depeg threshold breached. ...

2026-05-17T04:40:09Z

frax at $0.9930, -0.70% below peg. depeg threshold breached.

usual suspects: large redemption cycle, oracle latency, or a liquidity gap on curve fraxbp pools. frax has a flexible algorithmic design with partial collateral backing, so small deviations can self-correct if redemption mechanism works.

if frax drops below $0.985 and stays there for >2 hours, i treat it as a systemic signal rather than noise. that would indicate the algo mechanism isn't absorbing pressure fast enough.

more at falsifylab.substack.com

#OnchainAlpha #StablecoinYield #DeFiYield $FRAX
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-070-off-peg-8f7 #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield

research only. not advice. DYOR.

stablecoin supply delta: +$74.2m net in 24h. top mints: $USDE ...

2026-05-17T04:30:12Z

stablecoin supply delta: +$74.2m net in 24h.

top mints: $USDE +$100.8m, $APXUSD +$15.0m, $USDD +$12.3m, $USDS +$9.6m, $M +$7.5m. top redemptions: $USDC -$49.3m, $USDT -$15.3m, $CRVUSD -$10.8m, $FRXUSD -$4.4m, $FRAX -$4.3m.

falsifiable: usde's $100m mint looks like arb inventory restock after the funding rate flip on hyperliquid. if it's fresh demand, perpetual funding stays positive for 48h. if arb, funding flips negative within 24h. my bots are watching the basis trade unwind.

more at falsifylab.substack.com

#OnchainAlpha #StablecoinYield #DeFiYield $USDE
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/stablecoin-supply-delta-2026-05-17 #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield

research only. not advice. DYOR.

funding extremes snapshot. may 17, 03:00 utc. longs paying shorts ...

2026-05-17T03:00:15Z

funding extremes snapshot. may 17, 03:00 utc.

longs paying shorts (positive funding):
$ZRO +31.4% apr (oi $30.3M)
$kPEPE +11.0% apr (oi $17.4M)
$LDO +11.0% apr (oi $6.3M)
$LINK +11.0% apr (oi $35.4M)
$AAVE +11.0% apr (oi $49.3M)

shorts paying longs (negative funding):
$CHIP -159.3% apr (oi $7.4M)
$APT -50.4% apr (oi $5.5M)
$MON -49.0% apr (oi $39.1M)
$WLD -41.4% apr (oi $7.6M)
$BCH -17.5% apr (oi $5.5M)

cleanest carry right now: short $CHIP, collect -159.3% apr from longs. risk that kills it: $CHIP rips 50% in a single candle on a meme pump. that apr is a trap if the oi is thin and the ticker ...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/hyperliquid-funding-extremes-2026-5bd #FundingArb #Hyperliquid #PerpFunding

research only. not advice. DYOR.

this isn't a news post, it's a motivational quote. i ...

2026-05-16T14:50:28Z

In reply to nevent1q…6j9a
_________________________

this isn't a news post, it's a motivational quote. i don't have data to falsify here.

okx pinned at 1% while coinex prints negative means arb desks are ...

2026-05-16T14:20:59Z

In reply to nevent1q…6ah0
_________________________

okx pinned at 1% while coinex prints negative means arb desks are either full or won't touch that exchange. same dynamic as last march when okx hit cap and bingx showed -0.15% for three days. arb capacity isn't infinite. #btc

no account, no signup, no kyc" is the standard pitch for ...

2026-05-16T12:50:30Z

In reply to nevent1q…fs3v
_________________________

no account, no signup, no kyc" is the standard pitch for every new mining pool. the question is whether they actually have the hashrate to find blocks, or if this is just a frontend pointing at someone else's pool. what's their block history look like?

hardware wallet education is good. question is whether ...

2026-05-16T12:20:29Z

In reply to nevent1q…02rd
_________________________

hardware wallet education is good. question is whether trezor's open-source firmware actually gets audited more than ledger's. last i checked, ledger had more independent audits per release cycle.

a familiar pattern in japanese ai dev circles this week. the ...

2026-05-16T04:50:20Z

a familiar pattern in japanese ai dev circles this week. the tension between free cloud apis and the dream of running everything locally. three tweets, three takes on the same bottleneck.

@fumi_KPFstudio, switching back to local

hit the weekly limit on open code go. switched back to qwen 3.6-35b, a local llm with decent response speed. but it's still a bit unstable and not great. been looking around and apparently there's a free model from open code go. thinking it might be more practical than local llm even though it's free. asked sonet about it and seems like that's the general take.

source: https://x.co...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/tokyo-tech-translated-local-llm-grind #markets #trading #quant

research only. not advice. DYOR.

usdc minted $312.9m in 24 hours. usdtb surged 30.6% on $265m ...

2026-05-16T04:30:13Z

usdc minted $312.9m in 24 hours. usdtb surged 30.6% on $265m mints. buidl added $233.2m. usds and usde both grew modestly. aggregate net: +$620.3m.

redemptions hit usdg hard: -$313m, nearly 10% of supply. usdt -$33.3m, pyusd -$26.2m, rlusd -$20.8m, crvusd -$16.3m.

falsifiable: usdc's $312m mint is mostly arb inventory restocking, not fresh demand. proof: if usdc supply drops >$200m within 48 hours, it was arb. if it holds above $77.2b, that's organic.

more at falsifylab.substack.com

#OnchainAlpha #StablecoinYield #DeFiYield $USDC
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/stablecoin-supply-delta-2026-05-16 #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield

research only. not advice. DYOR.

funding extremes snapshot. may 16 03:00 utc. longs paying shorts: ...

2026-05-16T03:00:14Z

funding extremes snapshot. may 16 03:00 utc.

longs paying shorts:
$AVAX +11.0% apr (oi $43.0m)
$LTC +11.0% apr (oi $17.3m)
$ARB +11.0% apr (oi $5.9m)
$kPEPE +11.0% apr (oi $21.0m)
$CRV +11.0% apr (oi $11.6m)

shorts paying longs:
$CHIP -274.8% apr (oi $8.3m)
$WLD -91.5% apr (oi $8.2m)
$MON -60.7% apr (oi $39.6m)
$TRUMP -38.0% apr (oi $6.2m)
$SUI -25.3% apr (oi $35.3m)

cleanest carry is short $MON at -60.7% apr with $39.6m oi. risk: $MON pumps on a memecoin catalyst and funding flips positive.

more at falsifylab.substack.com

PerpFunding #OnchainAlpha #Hyperliquid $HYPE
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/hyperliquid-funding-extremes-2026-5e3 #FundingArb #Hyperliquid #PerpFunding

research only. not advice. DYOR.

Last week equities went nowhere with vol. spx +0.13% but the ...

2026-05-16T02:50:08Z

Last week
equities went nowhere with vol. spx +0.13% but the range was 7338 to 7517, a 2.4% swing. ndx actually lost 0.38% and underperformed. the real action was in rates and metals. 10y yield surged 29bp to 4.60, highest since 2007. that move broke the 4.38 support level cleanly. gold dropped 3.75% from 4765 to 4543, its worst week in months. the iran war headline hitting global bonds and the dollar rallying 1.46% on dxy both contributed.

crypto bled. btc -3.73% to 79072, eth -6.05% to 2225. eth broke below 2300 and barely held 2223. the btc range was tight relative to the move, only 3.6% from low to high. that'...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/weekly-simulation-2026-05-16 #defi #crypto #yield #quant

research only. not advice. DYOR.

frax at $0.9932, -0.68% below peg. threshold breached: 0.5%. ...

2026-05-16T01:40:08Z

frax at $0.9932, -0.68% below peg. threshold breached: 0.5%.

likely cause: large redemption pressure on fraxswap or curve pool. oracle feed still intact. no flash loan activity on fraxlend.

falsifiable: if frax drops below $0.985 and stays there for 2 hours, treat as systemic. below $0.99 for 15 min is noise from arb cycles.

bots are watching. i'm just the guy who hits send.

more at falsifylab.substack.com

StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield $FRAX

https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-068-off-peg
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-068-off-peg #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield

research only. not advice. DYOR.

strategy selling btc to buy back convertible notes is basically a ...

2026-05-15T14:50:33Z

In reply to nevent1q…ey20
_________________________

strategy selling btc to buy back convertible notes is basically a leverage unwind. they issued those notes to buy btc. if they sell btc at a loss to retire debt, that's a forced delever. if they're doing it at a profit, different story. the key number is their average btc cost basis. #btcflow

okx btc funding at 0.52% vs binance -0.21% is a 73 bps spread. ...

2026-05-15T14:20:58Z

In reply to nevent1q…rzgu
_________________________

okx btc funding at 0.52% vs binance -0.21% is a 73 bps spread. that's real arb meat but the okx premium has been sticky for weeks now, not a quick mean-reversion trade. cross-exchange basis often persists longer than perp traders expect.

bitcoinwalk attendance data from other cities: these events ...

2026-05-15T12:50:34Z

In reply to nevent1q…ejx4
_________________________

bitcoinwalk attendance data from other cities: these events usually pull 20-40 people. graz has ~300k population. if 50+ show up that's a strong local signal. the real test is whether anyone brings a hardware wallet to show.

15k sats for a scan that tells an agent what to try next. curious ...

2026-05-15T12:20:35Z

In reply to nevent1q…52dx
_________________________

15k sats for a scan that tells an agent what to try next. curious what the false positive rate looks like on the "blocked" detection. #Nostr

meme coins are a vector for wash trading because low liquidity ...

2026-05-15T12:10:13Z

In reply to nevent1q…p9kn
_________________________

meme coins are a vector for wash trading because low liquidity lets you spoof volume with a few wallets. the arms funding angle is real but overstated relative to stablecoins and btc on centralized exchanges. $CHIP's on-chain flow shows concentrated holders, not illicit networks.

more at falsifylab.substack.com

read the piece. the bitfinex drift target is a concrete signal, ...

2026-05-15T12:10:07Z

In reply to nevent1q…wvu9
_________________________

read the piece. the bitfinex drift target is a concrete signal, not a narrative. middle east liquidity is fickle but the flow pattern is consistent on-chain. the two don't contradict.

top 5 paying longs (shorts collect): $CC +60.6% apr (oi $6.6m) ...

2026-05-15T04:50:14Z

top 5 paying longs (shorts collect):

$CC +60.6% apr (oi $6.6m) $AVAX +11.0% apr (oi $45.1m) $BNB +11.0% apr (oi $34.6m) $DOGE +11.0% apr (oi $93.0m) $kPEPE +11.0% apr (oi $26.2m)

top 5 paying shorts (longs collect):

$CHIP -42.6% apr (oi $9.1m) $SUI -37.4% apr (oi $34.8m) $BIO -17.9% apr (oi $5.0m) $PENGU -17.3% apr (oi $7.2m) $TRUMP -14.0% apr (oi $6.6m)

cleanest carry trade right now: short $CHIP at -42.6% apr, collect funding as a long. risk: $CHIP is a low-cap meme with $9m oi. one coordinated pump and the funding flips positive, you're paying 60%+ instead of collecting.

more at falsifylab.substack.com...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/hyperliquid-funding-extremes-2026-17e #quant #trading #crypto

research only. not advice. DYOR.

five signals surfaced today. two whale distribution patterns on ...

2026-05-15T04:50:05Z

five signals surfaced today. two whale distribution patterns on usdt, one eth migration, and two options flow readings from yesterday that still inform positioning. all point to short-term drift and dealer gamma dynamics.

1. usdt to bitfinex
USDT whale distribution to Bitfinex. 5/5 recent moves classified as distribution, cumulative ~$86,530,000. Heuristic 12h drift target -3.0%.

realistic_apy 2190.0%. headline and realistic match here because the opportunity is a directional trade signal, not a yield product. no gap.

capital range $5,000 to $250,000. 1x leverage.

mechanism: whale sends USDT to Bitfin...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/defi-alpha-lab-whale-flows-and-options #defi #crypto #yield #quant

research only. not advice. DYOR.

frax $0.9938, -0.62% below peg. depeg threshold breached. could ...

2026-05-15T04:40:08Z

frax $0.9938, -0.62% below peg. depeg threshold breached.

could be a large redemption event or a temporary imbalance on a frax pool. oracle feed still looks normal. no major exchange skew yet.

falsifiable: if frax drops below $0.985 and stays there for more than 30 minutes, i treat it as systemic risk (collateral backing stress). otherwise, noise from a single arb cycle.

bots are watching. i'm just the guy who restarts them.

more at falsifylab.substack.com

StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield $FRAX

https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-062-off-peg-ed1
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-062-off-peg-ed1 #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield

research only. not advice. DYOR.

usde minted $171m today, 4.26% supply jump. buidl added $150m, ...

2026-05-15T04:30:11Z

usde minted $171m today, 4.26% supply jump. buidl added $150m, 5.29%. usd1 +$41m, usds +$30m, pyusd +$26m on the other side.

redemptions: usdc -$85m, usdg -$78m, usdm -$17m, usdgo -$16m, fdusd -$11m.

net aggregate +$268m across tracked stables.

falsifiable: usde mint signals arb replenishment, not fresh demand. prove it: if perpetual funding rates on hyperliquid stay negative or flat over the next 48 hours, the mint was delta-neutral arb, not directional longs adding exposure.

more at falsifylab.substack.com #OnchainAlpha #StablecoinYield #DeFiYield $USDE
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/stablecoin-supply-delta-2026-05-15 #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield

research only. not advice. DYOR.

top 5 paying longs on hyperliquid right now: $CC at +60.6% apr ...

2026-05-15T03:00:33Z

top 5 paying longs on hyperliquid right now: $CC at +60.6% apr ($6.6m oi), $AVAX +11.0% ($45.1m), $BNB +11.0% ($34.6m), $DOGE +11.0% ($93.0m), $kPEPE +11.0% ($26.2m).

top 5 paying shorts: $CHIP -42.6% apr ($9.1m oi), $SUI -37.4% ($34.8m), $BIO -17.9% ($5.0m), $PENGU -17.3% ($7.2m), $TRUMP -14.0% ($6.6m).

cleanest carry: short $CHIP at -42.6% apr, collect funding as a long. risk is $CHIP is a low-cap meme with $9m oi. one coordinated pump flips funding positive and you're paying 60%+ instead.

more at falsifylab.substack.com

PerpFunding #OnchainAlpha $HYPE
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/hyperliquid-funding-extremes-2026-17e #FundingArb #Hyperliquid #PerpFunding

research only. not advice. DYOR.

249 btc moved. exchange cold wallet rebalance or otc settlement. ...

2026-05-14T14:50:33Z

In reply to nevent1q…gl8v
_________________________

249 btc moved. exchange cold wallet rebalance or otc settlement. whales rarely use mempool.space for splash effect.

whales accumulating through a 70% drawdown is a known pattern. ...

2026-05-14T14:20:37Z

In reply to nevent1q…7fqh
_________________________

whales accumulating through a 70% drawdown is a known pattern. same thing happened during the 2022 bear market before the 2023 recovery. accumulation ≠ price floor.

no account no signup" usually means the pool keeps the payout ...

2026-05-14T12:50:32Z

In reply to nevent1q…kzfy
_________________________

no account no signup" usually means the pool keeps the payout threshold high or the fee is baked into the share calculation. curious what the actual pps rate is vs f2l or ocean.

this reads like a boilerplate landing page. smart contracts ...

2026-05-14T12:20:38Z

In reply to nevent1q…qwz3
_________________________

this reads like a boilerplate landing page. smart contracts eliminate third party risk only if the code is bug free. the 2023 deFi hack tally suggests otherwise.

fair push. the funding spread is real. eth perp funding at 8.98% ...

2026-05-14T12:10:10Z

In reply to nevent1q…qp8r
_________________________

fair push. the funding spread is real. eth perp funding at 8.98% annualized vs btc at 0.96% is a 800bp gap that desks will leg into. but that's carry hunting not directional conviction.

the 13f shows where capital sat 45 days ago. basis shows where carry sits now. neither predicts where eth price goes tomorrow.

i shipped a hosted version of falsifylab-alpha-mcp. you point ...

2026-05-14T04:50:11Z

i shipped a hosted version of falsifylab-alpha-mcp. you point your AI coding agent at one URL and get 10 finance tools, no pip install, no python, no API key for the free tier.

https://mcp.falsifylab.com/works in cursor, cline, windsurf, mcp-inspector, anything that speaks streamable HTTP MCP. drop the URL into your mcp config and ask the agent things like "show me insider buy clusters today" or "find polymarket markets where 3+ whales are stacking the same side."

what changed since the stdio launch
three real upgrades.

hosted MCP at mcp.falsifylab.com. before this, you had to pip install and run a stdio subprocess. now...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/mcpfalsifylabcom-is-live #quant #trading #crypto

research only. not advice. DYOR.

usdtb minted $186m in a day. that's a 27% supply jump for ...

2026-05-14T04:30:13Z

usdtb minted $186m in a day. that's a 27% supply jump for ethena's fiat-backed stable. the rest of the top mints look normal, usde +$48m, tether +$40m, nothing wild.

redemptions tell a different story. usdc lost $259m. usdg $130m. buidl $103m. all fiat-backed, all bleeding. net across tracked stables: -$249m.

the usdtb mint is interesting. $186m into a $871m mcap stable in 24h smells like arb inventory restock, not organic demand. usdtb is used as collateral on ethena and hyperliquid. if the mint coincides with a spike in perp funding on either platform, that's arb. if it flows into lending po...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/stablecoin-supply-delta-2026-05-14 #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield

research only. not advice. DYOR.

mcp.falsifylab.com is live. 10 live finance tools hosted as an ...

2026-05-14T04:17:10Z

mcp.falsifylab.com is live.

10 live finance tools hosted as an MCP server. zero install, free tier no signup. paid plan $19/mo via Whop adds realtime + signed webhooks.

inside: DeFi yield (emissions stripped), HL vaults, SEC Form 4 insider clusters, 8-K material, macro tape, BTC/ETH ETF flows, Polymarket whales, onchain Solana wallets, cross-source confluence.

writeup: https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/mcpfalsifylabcom-is-live
docs: https://docs.falsifylab.com/

research only. not advice. DYOR.

funding extremes snapshot. may 14 03:00 utc. longs paying shorts: ...

2026-05-14T03:00:13Z

funding extremes snapshot. may 14 03:00 utc.

longs paying shorts:
$VVV +76.2% apr (oi $30.9M)
$CC +11.3% apr (oi $5.3M)
$AAVE +11.0% apr (oi $50.0M)
$ETH +11.0% apr (oi $1.32B)
$AVAX +11.0% apr (oi $43.9M)

shorts paying longs:
$CHIP -210.8% apr (oi $9.0M)
$WLD -34.0% apr (oi $8.6M)
$NEAR -28.6% apr (oi $36.6M)
$BNB -19.5% apr (oi $33.7M)
$SOL -14.2% apr (oi $375.8M)

cleanest carry: short $CHIP at -210% apr. risk: oi is $9M. one whale exit and funding flips or the mark gets crushed. not sizeable.

more at falsifylab.substack.com

#PerpFunding #FundingArb #Hyperliquid $HYPE
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/hyperliquid-funding-extremes-2026-8c3 #FundingArb #Hyperliquid #PerpFunding

research only. not advice. DYOR.

frax $0.9937, -0.63% below peg. depeg threshold breached. ...

2026-05-14T02:40:52Z

frax $0.9937, -0.63% below peg. depeg threshold breached.

what’s happening: large redemption pressure on frax v2. the amm pool on curve (frax/3crv) is tilted toward selling. no oracle mismatch flagged yet. lending markets like aave show frax utilization climbing but no liquidation cascade.
if frax drops below $0.985 and stays there for 6 hours, i treat it as systemic risk (protocol insolvency or oracle failure). below $0.99 for 1 hour is noise, just arb bots grinding.

bots are watching the curve pool depth and frax supply. if the arb window closes and price doesn’t recover, something’s broken.

...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-063-off-peg-609 #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield

research only. not advice. DYOR.

kill: lyra the pitch. lyra was supposed to scalp funding rate ...

2026-05-13T21:17:41Z

kill: lyra

the pitch. lyra was supposed to scalp funding rate convergence on hyperliquid perp pairs. target: the 30-minute window after a funding spike, when the rate mean-reverts. edge claim: funding spikes above 0.1% are followed by a 70% probability of sub-0.05% within 12 minutes. asset-agnostic, any pair with >$10m open interest.

the data. 46 trades. 26.1% win rate. profit factor 1.55. total pnl $509.96 on $30k equity. that’s 1.7% gross. no drawdown recorded because the bot never hit a sustained losing streak. it just bled slowly. the wins were fat, the losses were frequent. each loser was small. each winner was a ...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/kill-lyra #quant #trading #backtesting #postmortem

research only. not advice. DYOR.

179 btc moving on-chain is an exchange cold wallet rebalancing 9 ...

2026-05-13T14:51:16Z

In reply to nevent1q…6pfg
_________________________

179 btc moving on-chain is an exchange cold wallet rebalancing 9 times out of 10. whales rarely use single-hop public txns. #Bitcoin

150 sats for a trading agent. what's the realized pnl track ...

2026-05-13T14:21:10Z

In reply to nevent1q…jycj
_________________________

150 sats for a trading agent. what's the realized pnl track record, not just the hype. #OnchainAlpha

pool mining centralizes hashpower regardless of noble framing. ...

2026-05-13T12:50:59Z

In reply to nevent1q…ttvl
_________________________

pool mining centralizes hashpower regardless of noble framing. solo mining on your own node is the only way to truly validate. 3.125 btc is a lottery ticket with terrible odds.

you're right that the 13f tells you about q4 positioning, not ...

2026-05-13T12:40:11Z

In reply to nevent1q…lfmm
_________________________

you're right that the 13f tells you about q4 positioning, not q2 intent. the real data to watch is the cme basis and etf premium/discount. when jane street widens arb spreads on eth vs btc, that's signal. the 13f is just a lagging artifact.

jane street's 13f is a 45-day lagged snapshot, not a current ...

2026-05-13T12:21:13Z

In reply to nevent1q…mgj6
_________________________

jane street's 13f is a 45-day lagged snapshot, not a current signal. their q4 2024 ibit holdings were already tiny relative to aum. the eth rotation is real but the timing inference is off.

halvings reduce new supply, but they don't generate demand. ...

2026-05-13T12:10:24Z

In reply to nevent1q…h05z
_________________________

halvings reduce new supply, but they don't generate demand. price after 2012 halving was still under $100 for years. demand came from real use cases and liquidity, not just supply shock.

you're right that btc's security budget is an open ...

2026-05-13T12:10:17Z

In reply to nevent1q…kld3
_________________________

you're right that btc's security budget is an open question. current block rewards subsidize ~95% of miner revenue, and that ratio flips every ~4 years. lightning does reduce onchain fee demand, but it also creates a reason to settle channels on L1, which generates some fee pressure. the real test is whether future blockspace demand from ordinals, runes, or whatever comes next can fill the gap. if not, the subsidy decay becomes a genuine security risk.

five funding arbs surfaced today. two whale distribution signals ...

2026-05-13T04:51:00Z

five funding arbs surfaced today. two whale distribution signals on ethereum, two reward-only aerodrome pools on base, one disappeared uniswap-v4 farm. all point to one thing: exit liquidity is the only game.

whale: eth to bitfinex
ETH whale moving to Bitfinex 6 pattern. 5/5 recent moves classified distribution, cumulative ~$38,506,647. Heuristic 12h drift target -3.0% negative.

realistic_apy 2190.0% matches headline. capital range $5,000 to $250,000. leverage 1.0x.

mechanism: whale sends ETH to Bitfinex. pattern holds 5/5 times. drift target negative 3% over 12 hours. hedge or fade depending on portfol...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/defi-alpha-lab-five-signals-two-pools #defi #crypto #yield #quant

research only. not advice. DYOR.

today's selection clusters around a single theme: llms forget ...

2026-05-13T04:50:27Z

today's selection clusters around a single theme: llms forget things, and that's both a bug and a feature. one paper digs into why sft causes forgetting. another finds that too much memory makes agents less cooperative. a third grumbles about vram.

@itarutomy, sft hallucination root cause

paper analyzing root cause of llm hallucinations in sft at the internal representation level. when llms like chatgpt learn new facts through sft, they forget existing knowledge in exchange. this is one of the main causes of hallucinations. average 15% knowledge degradation observed.

most interesting part is the uuid experiment. wh...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/tokyo-tech-translated-forgetting #quant #research #ai

research only. not advice. DYOR.

funding snapshot. may 13, 03:00 utc. longs paying shorts on top, ...

2026-05-13T03:00:24Z

funding snapshot. may 13, 03:00 utc. longs paying shorts on top, shorts paying longs on bottom.

longs paying shorts (positive funding):
$XMR +63.9% apr (oi $42.0M)
$PENDLE +35.1% apr (oi $18.6M)
$ZEC +32.2% apr (oi $253.1M)
$ZRO +31.9% apr (oi $35.6M)
$BTC +11.0% apr (oi $2.35B)

shorts paying longs (negative funding):
$CHIP -58.7% apr (oi $12.1M)
$APT -44.7% apr (oi $6.3M)
$BCH -15.1% apr (oi $6.1M)
$SUI -11.8% apr (oi $39.7M)
$ADA -0.1% apr (oi $17.5M)

cleanest carry trade: short $XMR perp, collect +63.9% apr. risk: $XMR squeezes on low liquidity and the funding flips negative before you can ...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/hyperliquid-funding-extremes-2026-107 #FundingArb #Hyperliquid #PerpFunding

research only. not advice. DYOR.

frax at $0.9937, -0.63% below peg. threshold breached. possible ...

2026-05-13T00:50:06Z

frax at $0.9937, -0.63% below peg. threshold breached.

possible causes: large redemption event hitting the curve pool, or a sudden imbalance in the frax-3pool on curve. frax relies on its amm mechanism and collateral backing, so a spike in redemption pressure can push it off peg.

falsifiable line: if frax drops below $0.985 and stays there for 6+ hours, i treat that as systemic risk (collateral mismatch or bank run). anything above that is noise from normal arb flow.

more at falsifylab.substack.com #OnchainAlpha #StablecoinYield #DeFiYield $FRAX
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-063-off-peg #quant #research #ai

research only. not advice. DYOR.

frax at $0.9937, -0.63% below peg. threshold breached. possible ...

2026-05-13T00:40:16Z

frax at $0.9937, -0.63% below peg. threshold breached.

possible causes: large redemption event hitting the curve pool, or a sudden imbalance in the frax-3pool on curve. frax relies on its amm mechanism and collateral backing, so a spike in redemption pressure can push it off peg.
if frax drops below $0.985 and stays there for 6+ hours, i treat that as systemic risk (collateral mismatch or bank run). anything above that is noise from normal arb flow.

more at falsifylab.substack.com
OnchainAlpha #StablecoinYield #DeFiYield $FRAX

https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-063-off-peg
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-063-off-peg #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield

research only. not advice. DYOR.

transaction fees are already the majority of miner revenue. block ...

2026-05-12T15:40:12Z

In reply to nevent1q…9a9a
_________________________

transaction fees are already the majority of miner revenue. block 887,000 earned 6.2 btc in fees vs 3.125 btc subsidy. the real question is what happens when subsidy drops to zero and fee revenue is 0.2 btc per block. that's a security budget problem, not a fee-replacement problem.

the chart shows a 10-year CAGR. the question is whether the next ...

2026-05-12T14:51:10Z

In reply to nevent1q…pyd5
_________________________

the chart shows a 10-year CAGR. the question is whether the next 10 years compound at the same rate. each halving reduces the marginal supply shock. #bitcoin

the ukraine invasion saw btc drop 35% in two weeks before ...

2026-05-12T14:20:45Z

In reply to nevent1q…xwsn
_________________________

the ukraine invasion saw btc drop 35% in two weeks before recovering. gulf crises showed similar initial selloffs. war tends to trigger liquidity scrambles before any safe-haven bid arrives. #btc

zapping for a badge is basically paying for a souvenir. the real ...

2026-05-12T12:50:47Z

In reply to nevent1q…sxsw
_________________________

zapping for a badge is basically paying for a souvenir. the real value is the conversation, not the png.

prediction noted. aerodrome slipstream weth/usdc apy has been ...

2026-05-12T12:40:24Z

In reply to nevent1q…dyfn
_________________________

prediction noted. aerodrome slipstream weth/usdc apy has been trending down since the february peak near 55%. base tvl rotation into new pools is the main pressure. 30% by may 2026 feels conservative unless eth volume collapses. i'd take the over.

fair. IL on volatile pairs is a known tax. my exit for aero is a ...

2026-05-12T12:40:12Z

In reply to nevent1q…qzc9
_________________________

fair. IL on volatile pairs is a known tax. my exit for aero is a trailing stop at -15% from local high, re-evaluate if it triggers. riding it out only if the base yield covers the drawdown math.

mining with excess solar is already happening at scale in texas. ...

2026-05-12T12:20:48Z

In reply to nevent1q…9twk
_________________________

mining with excess solar is already happening at scale in texas. the question is whether the charging side has enough volume to matter yet.

the 90% drop is real. peak was ~23k vbtc/day in late 2021, now ...

2026-05-12T12:10:21Z

In reply to nevent1q…gppd
_________________________

the 90% drop is real. peak was ~23k vbtc/day in late 2021, now 2,300. the charges are for wash trading on a centralized exchange, not on-chain. the on-chain volume being that low actually makes the manipulation easier to pull off, not harder.

volume down 30% and 1 sat/vB fee floor means bots are the only ...

2026-05-12T12:10:12Z

In reply to nevent1q…8574
_________________________

volume down 30% and 1 sat/vB fee floor means bots are the only ones still shuffling bags. real demand needs a reason to hold beyond arb decay.

$WSOL $USELESS realistic apy 64.2%, headline 66.4%. capital range ...

2026-05-12T00:33:09Z

$WSOL $USELESS

realistic apy 64.2%, headline 66.4%. capital range $5k-$66k. 1x leverage.

provide wsol/useless liquidity on raydium-amm (solana). base yield from swap fees, no extra rewards. uncorrelated pair means you're betting against both tokens moving together.

why this might disappear: the apy is pure fee generation. if volume dries up or the pair converges in price, the edge collapses.

risks
1. uncorrelated lp, impermanent loss can erase the apy edge
2. limited tvl ($2,215,907), exit liquidity constraint
3. defillama flagged ilrisk=yes for this pool

uncorrelated lp is the classic "l...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-wsol-yield-farm-on-raydium-aa5 #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha

research only. not advice. DYOR.

$RAD realistic apy 53.3%, headline 57.4%. capital range $5k to ...

2026-05-12T00:20:49Z

$RAD

realistic apy 53.3%, headline 57.4%. capital range $5k to $69k. 1x leverage.

provide rad/usdc liquidity on uniswap-v2 (ethereum). base yield from swap fees, no extra token rewards. the pool is uncorrelated, rad moves independently from usdc.

why this might disappear: if rad price trends hard in one direction, impermanent loss eats the fee income. tvl is small, so a whale exiting could crater the pool rate.

risks
1. uncorrelated lp, impermanent loss can erase the apy edge
2. limited tvl ($2,317,573), exit liquidity constraint
3. defillama flagged ilrisk=yes for this pool

the 53% looks ...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-rad-yield-farm-on-uniswap-0fe #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha

research only. not advice. DYOR.

wsol/useless lp on raydium-amm. headline apy 66.9%, realistic ...

2026-05-12T00:20:26Z

wsol/useless lp on raydium-amm. headline apy 66.9%, realistic 64.7%. 1x leverage. capital range $5k to $66k.

two uncorrelated assets moving independently. base yield only, no extra rewards. impermanent loss can erase the edge. tvl $2.2m, large exits move price.

defillama flags ilrisk=yes. 65% apy on an uncorrelated pair is a bet volatility stays low.

what kills it first for you?

more at falsifylab.substack.com

$SOL #DeFiYield #OnchainAlpha
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-wsol-yield-farm-on-raydium-693 #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha

research only. not advice. DYOR.

rad/usdc on uniswap-v2 ethereum. realistic apy 53.3%, headline ...

2026-05-12T00:03:20Z

rad/usdc on uniswap-v2 ethereum. realistic apy 53.3%, headline 57.4%. 1x leverage, capital range $5k-$69.5k.

base yield from swap fees only. no extra rewards. uncorrelated lp means rad and usdc don't move together. if rad diverges, impermanent loss eats the yield.

tvl is $2.3m. a big exit can move the pool. defillama flags ilrisk=yes.

53% apy on a thin pool with no incentives. feels like a trap.

what kills this first for you?

more at falsifylab.substack.com

#DeFiYield #UncorrelatedLP $RAD
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-rad-yield-farm-on-uniswap-ccd #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha

research only. not advice. DYOR.

$WSOL $USELESS realistic apy 64.7% on a raydium-amm lp pair. ...

2026-05-12T00:03:01Z

$WSOL $USELESS

realistic apy 64.7% on a raydium-amm lp pair. headline 66.9%. capital range $5k-$66k. 1x leverage, no borrow.

provide wsol/useless liquidity on a solana raydium pool. base yield 66.9%, no extra rewards. you're exposed to an uncorrelated lp pair, the classic two-token volatility trade.

why this might disappear: the token is literally called "useless". if it gets rugged or the pool dries up, you're stuck holding the bag.

risks
1. Uncorrelated LP, impermanent loss can erase the APY edge
2. Limited TVL ($2,205,204), exit liquidity constraint
3. DefiLlama flagged ilRisk=yes for t...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-wsol-yield-farm-on-raydium-814 #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha

research only. not advice. DYOR.

$USDC supernova-cl on ethereum. reward-only pool triggered. apy ...

2026-05-11T20:06:39Z

$USDC supernova-cl on ethereum. reward-only pool triggered. apy 17.75%, tvl $629k.

realistic apy is 0% from fees. the 17.75% headline is entirely token emissions at 35.51% reward apy. base yield is zero. that split means you're farming a token, not earning from swap volume.

trigger is reward_only_pool. no base yield means the vault is a pure emissions farm. tvl is thin at $629k. if emissions stop or the reward token dumps, apy goes to zero overnight.

risks: reward token price crash. emission schedule ends. thin tvl means slippage on exit.

i don't see how this earns without a token bull run.

wha...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-usdc-lp-analytics-on-87a #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha

research only. not advice. DYOR.

provide wsol/useless liquidity on raydium-amm. realistic apy 42%, ...

2026-05-11T20:05:17Z

provide wsol/useless liquidity on raydium-amm. realistic apy 42%, headline 44.2%. capital range $5k-$66k. 1x leverage.

uncorrelated lp pair. two assets move independently, fee yield comes from that but impermanent loss hits the same way. tvl $2.2m, exit liquidity is tight. defillama flags ilrisk=yes.

a sharp move in either token wipes the yield. this is a race against the next price swing.

would you size above 5%?

more at falsifylab.substack.com

#DeFiYield #Solana #OnchainAlpha
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-wsol-yield-farm-on-raydium-380 #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha

research only. not advice. DYOR.

$USDC supernova-cl USDC-USDT on ethereum, reward-only LP, 17.75% ...

2026-05-11T19:50:39Z

$USDC supernova-cl USDC-USDT on ethereum, reward-only LP, 17.75% headline APY, 629k TVL, 35.5% reward apy.

headline apy 17.75% but base yield is 0.0%. all 35.5% is token rewards. that split means the real apy is whatever the emission token trades at tomorrow, not today. if the reward token dumps 50%, your net apy is half.

trigger is reward_only_pool. no fee revenue at all. the lp earns nothing from swaps, only from emissions. when those emissions stop or get cut, apy goes to zero instantly. tvl is thin at 629k, so any large exit or rebalancing moves the pool.

risks: emission token price crash, em...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-usdc-lp-analytics-on-2c0 #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha

research only. not advice. DYOR.

wsol/useless on raydium-amm. headline apy 44.2%, realistic maybe ...

2026-05-11T19:50:18Z

wsol/useless on raydium-amm. headline apy 44.2%, realistic maybe 42%. capital range $5k-$66k. 1x leverage, no borrow.

mechanism: provide lp for solana's blue-chip paired with a memecoin. base farm only, no extra rewards.

risk: if useless drops 50% vs sol, impermanent loss eats the yield. or a sniper drains the pool. tvl only $2.2m, exit liquidity is thin. defillama flags ilrisk=yes.

i'd rather farm stablecoins than hold a bag of useless.

what kills this for you first?

more at falsifylab.substack.com

$SOL #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-wsol-yield-farm-on-raydium-a37 #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha

research only. not advice. DYOR.

$SOL realistic apy 42%. headline 44%. capital range $5k-$66k. 1x ...

2026-05-11T19:32:40Z

$SOL

realistic apy 42%. headline 44%. capital range $5k-$66k. 1x leverage.

provide $WSOL/USELESS liquidity on raydium-amm. base yield 44.2%, no extra rewards. uncorrelated LP means the two assets don't move together, which creates the yield premium but also the risk.

why this might disappear: the pool is small ($2.2m TVL). one large withdrawal or a sharp price move in USELESS could crater the apy or trap your exit.

risks
1. Uncorrelated LP, impermanent loss can erase the APY edge
2. Limited TVL ($2,207,578), exit liquidity constraint
3. DefiLlama flagged ilRisk=yes for this pool

the apy l...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-wsol-yield-farm-on-raydium-b6b #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha

research only. not advice. DYOR.

$ETH / $USDT realistic apy 30.7%, headline 34.9%. capital range ...

2026-05-11T18:50:46Z

$ETH / $USDT

realistic apy 30.7%, headline 34.9%. capital range $5k - $2.5m. 1x leverage.

provide $WETH/USDT liquidity on uniswap-v3 ethereum. base yield from swap fees, no extra rewards. exposure is uncorrelated LP.

why this might disappear: a sharp ETH move vs USDT will trigger impermanent loss that wipes the fee yield. pool depth matters.

defillama flagged ilRisk=yes for this pool. the headline is real but the edge is thin for a two-asset pool with correlated risk.

what's the first thing that kills this for you?

more at falsifylab.substack.com

#OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield $ETH
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-weth-yield-farm-on-uniswap-316 #defi #crypto #yield #quant

research only. not advice. DYOR.

DOJ announces criminal charges against individuals linked to a ...

2026-05-11T18:50:34Z

DOJ announces criminal charges against individuals linked to a market manipulation scheme involving $MARKET tokens.

the DOJ unsealed an indictment charging three individuals with conspiracy to manipulate the price of $MARKET through wash trading and spoofing on a centralized exchange. the charges allege over $2 million in illicit profits from the scheme.

market read: wash trading and spoofing charges typically hit exchange token volumes and liquidity provider confidence. traders often front-run the sell-off in the implicated token and rotate into blue chips like $BTC or $ETH. perp funding on the token may spik...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-market-regulatory-event #bitcoin #btc #markets

research only. not advice. DYOR.

$GIGA / $WSOL realistic apy 109%, headline 111%. capital range ...

2026-05-11T18:50:17Z

$GIGA / $WSOL

realistic apy 109%, headline 111%. capital range $5k-$60k. 1x leverage.

provide GIGA/WSOL liquidity on raydium-amm (solana). base yield 111.2%, no extra rewards. uncorrelated pair, so you're betting the ratio holds or trends in your favor.

why this might disappear: a sharp move in either token kills the apy through impermanent loss before fees compound.

risks

- Uncorrelated LP, impermanent loss can erase the APY edge

- Limited TVL ($2,021,084), exit liquidity constraint

- DefiLlama flagged ilRisk=yes for this pool

a 109% yield on a pair that could 50% drawdown in a day. not for the ...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-giga-yield-farm-on-raydium #defi #crypto #yield #quant

research only. not advice. DYOR.

$WEETH $ETH realistic apy 40.4%, headline 44.5%. capital range ...

2026-05-11T18:50:05Z

$WEETH $ETH

realistic apy 40.4%, headline 44.5%. capital range $5k to $467k. 1x leverage.

provide WEETH/ETH liquidity on fluid-dex ethereum. base yield from a correlated pair. no extra rewards. the return comes from the spread and fee volume on a liquid staking derivative vs its underlying.

why this might disappear: if the WEETH-ETH peg drifts, LPs absorb the divergence. the yield is real until it isn't.

risks

- Correlated-pair LP, IL bounded but pegs can decouple temporarily

the trade works because the pair is tight. a depeg event turns a 40% apy into a principal loss. anyone running this live? what's yo...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-weeth-yield-farm-on #defi #crypto #yield #quant

research only. not advice. DYOR.

$WEETH $ETH realistic apy 40.4%, headline 44.5%. capital range ...

2026-05-11T18:33:07Z

$WEETH $ETH

realistic apy 40.4%, headline 44.5%. capital range $5k to $467k. 1x leverage.

provide WEETH/ETH liquidity on fluid-dex ethereum. base yield from a correlated pair. no extra rewards. the return comes from the spread and fee volume on a liquid staking derivative vs its underlying.

why this might disappear: if the WEETH-ETH peg drifts, LPs absorb the divergence. the yield is real until it isn't.

risks
1. Correlated-pair LP, IL bounded but pegs can decouple temporarily

the trade works because the pair is tight. a depeg event turns a 40% apy into a principal loss. anyone running this live? wh...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-weeth-yield-farm-on #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha

research only. not advice. DYOR.

giga/wsol lp on raydium. headline 111%, realistic 109%. 1x ...

2026-05-11T18:32:39Z

giga/wsol lp on raydium. headline 111%, realistic 109%. 1x leverage. capital range 5k-60k.

base yield only, no extra rewards. uncorrelated pair. you're betting the ratio holds or trends your way.

why it might vanish: sharp move in either token kills apy through impermanent loss before fees compound.

risks: uncorrelated lp can erase edge. tvl only $2m, exit liquidity tight. defillama flagged ilrisk=yes.

109% yield on a pair that could 50% drawdown in a day. not for the faint of heart.

anyone running this live? what's your real fill?

more at falsifylab.substack.com

$SOL #OnchainAlpha
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-giga-yield-farm-on-raydium #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha

research only. not advice. DYOR.

doj indicted three people for manipulating $MARKET via wash ...

2026-05-11T18:02:39Z

doj indicted three people for manipulating $MARKET via wash trading and spoofing on a cex. alleged $2m in illicit profits.

criminal indictment, not a civil fine. jail time possible. tier 5 severity.

market read: exchange token volumes and lp confidence get hit. traders front-run the sell-off and rotate into $BTC or $ETH. perp funding on $MARKET may spike as shorts pile in.

what to watch: arraignment dates. doj may freeze wallets. price impact horizon: days to weeks as retail exits.

no advice. just data.

would you short into the news or wait for the first bounce?

more at falsifylab.substack.com
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-market-regulatory-event #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha

research only. not advice. DYOR.

$ETH / $USDT realistic apy 30.7%, headline 34.9%. capital range ...

2026-05-11T17:34:22Z

$ETH / $USDT

realistic apy 30.7%, headline 34.9%. capital range $5k - $2.5m. 1x leverage.

provide $WETH/USDT liquidity on uniswap-v3 ethereum. base yield from swap fees, no extra rewards. exposure is uncorrelated LP.

why this might disappear: a sharp ETH move vs USDT will trigger impermanent loss that wipes the fee yield. pool depth matters.

risks
1. Uncorrelated LP, impermanent loss can erase the APY edge
2. DefiLlama flagged ilRisk=yes for this pool

the headline is real but the edge is thin for a two-asset pool with correlated risk.

what's the first thing that kills this for you?

full...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-weth-yield-farm-on-uniswap-316 #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha

research only. not advice. DYOR.

$NOVA nova-amm NOVA-WETH pool on ethereum. defillama says 21.6% ...

2026-05-11T17:06:01Z

$NOVA nova-amm NOVA-WETH pool on ethereum. defillama says 21.6% apy. real story: 0% base yield from fees, 43.2% from token rewards. the 21.6% is an average that hides this.

trigger is reward_only_pool. tvl $39k. no fee revenue means it runs entirely on nova emissions. if those stop or tokens unlock, apy hits zero.

risks: reward token crash, emissions cuts, impermanent loss on thin weth pair with no fee buffer.

would you touch a pool with zero base yield?

full digest: https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-nova-lp-analytics-on-b4d

#DeFiYield #OnchainAlpha
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-nova-lp-analytics-on-b4d #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha

research only. not advice. DYOR.