Nostr notes by

Presented at the UW Bitcoin Research Initiative yesterday. The ...

2026-07-15T03:28:53Z

Presented at the UW Bitcoin Research Initiative yesterday. The full picture is now available as a decision boundary, all findings, and the interactive fork dynamics explorer.

Starting with the three questions that matter most during a contested fork.

1. Is economic adoption above ~60%?
If not, the upgrading fork struggles regardless of mining support.
Monitor: exchange proof-of-reserves, institutional custody migration, ETF flow data.

2. Has a pool controlling >20% of global hashrate committed to the upgrading chain?
This determines whether that pool is economically trapped on the upgrading chain or ideologically committed, a distinction that can reverse outcomes at moderate economic adoption levels.

3. Is economic adoption above ~75%?
If so, pool ideology and commitment structure become irrelevant to outcome. Mining dynamics still determine how disruptive resolution is, but not which side wins.

These thresholds come from 1,385 fork scenarios on real bitcoind nodes. Three statistical methods converge on the same boundary.

Caveat: numbers are calibrated to current pool distribution and modeling assumptions, mechanisms are general, specific values are not universal.

Full decision boundary, presentation, and data: https://github.com/pfoytik/Bitcoin-Fork-Governance-Study
Interactive fork explorer (adjust sliders, see predicted outcome): https://pfoytik.github.io/fork-explorer/index.html

I agree with this, which is not exactly the position you took in ...

2026-07-13T00:28:20Z

In reply to nevent1q…syt5
_________________________

I agree with this, which is not exactly the position you took in your previous note.

That’s cute and all, but I think the previous century and a ...

2026-07-12T21:49:07Z

In reply to nevent1q…l4y6
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That’s cute and all, but I think the previous century and a half have provided evidence aplenty of the folly that this mindset leads to. Governments are affinity scams.

Nostr event nevent1qqsrdp5andzzyuweykwkrgryrkpvskfhlff2fg6407v2elqjhv6nr7qp8fmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujude4xa38gcewdaexwtmwdaehgatj8fex2mrp0yhrwdfhvf6xxtn0wfnj77r9dehkuttjdakk2mczypv6lex3m9etfxntvxrmafr43zflq4kw2gkht4230hmhdrrtyzmng58umz4

2026-07-12T21:41:26Z

In reply to nevent1q…eulv
_________________________

So you’re here in support of the government?

2026-07-12T21:37:36Z

In reply to nevent1q…hkh7
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So you’re here in support of the government?

Fuck yeah

2026-07-12T21:35:10Z

In reply to nevent1q…t4h8
_________________________

Fuck yeah

Got in a wreck this morning taking my kid to work. Hydroplaned ...

2026-07-12T21:34:12Z

Got in a wreck this morning taking my kid to work. Hydroplaned into a guardrail. We’re ok but the car is not. I’m 100% responsible for this but I can’t help feeling a little shafted by the universe.

Bch price didn't just start, it took a little time for ...

2026-07-12T10:37:55Z

In reply to nevent1q…p2cz
_________________________

Bch price didn't just start, it took a little time for exchanges to find the price based on market offers and orders. For that to happen they had to specify a token on the exchanges that everyone agreed on. Futures markets help to understand prices before that point. Liquidity is just the amount people are willing to sell and buy at a particular price. Getting rich is not so simple i n the moment.

At a chainsplit, the capital and market value for the two tokens likely would be equal to the prior tokens value before the chain split. If the market is split on both coins meaning half the market thinks the new token is bitcoin and the other half think the old token is bitcoin then one could sell the other token for a meaningful amount but you risk selling the token that will become the Bitcoin that the market decides is the correct fork in the end. If the market is not split 50/50 then one token will have value and the other token will not. The weaker token would have very few buyers and to sell it you would have to sell it to those few buyers at a very low price.

If a chainsplit happens and persists the price of the original ...

2026-07-12T00:02:15Z

In reply to nevent1q…37mj
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If a chainsplit happens and persists the price of the original token would likely split between the two takens, not by any protocol rule but because of the free market. The capital is splitting between the two. So in a sense you aren't getting a free air drop, the total value of both chain will probably equal the total value of the original. There is still a lot we don't know about how the market reacts so for now a lot of this is just hypothetical.

Maybe the move is to get bidets and be up front about charging ...

2026-07-11T23:52:43Z

In reply to nevent1q…4umg
_________________________

Maybe the move is to get bidets and be up front about charging for a first-class experience

I have a sign. It only seems to work on people that don’t want ...

2026-07-11T23:30:38Z

In reply to nevent1q…h2fg
_________________________

I have a sign. It only seems to work on people that don’t want to use the bathroom

Air drop, equal amount on both chains if you hold your own keys. ...

2026-07-11T22:38:29Z

In reply to nevent1q…69ts
_________________________

Air drop, equal amount on both chains if you hold your own keys. Obviously this only happens if a chain split persists for a long period of time.

Did the backup work in restoring all your chats?

2026-07-11T11:03:38Z

In reply to nevent1q…tmhu
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Did the backup work in restoring all your chats?

We need a Nostr app that replaces YouTube Problem is the people I ...

2026-07-11T01:04:18Z

In reply to nevent1q…f56v
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We need a Nostr app that replaces YouTube

Problem is the people I wanna watch are not on Nostr yet ….

There's a live debate right now about whether user node ...

2026-07-08T17:58:29Z

There's a live debate right now about whether user node signaling is sufficient to carry a soft fork, whether the current picture resembles past successful activations.

It's the right question. Here's what the simulation found about what actually determines fork outcomes.

First, a clarification on scope: this research isn't about BIP110 specifically. It's about the general conditions that determine whether a contested soft fork succeeds, fails, or splits the chain. BIP110 is a timely reason to share it.

The clearest result from 2,694 scenarios: there's a threshold in economic adoption below which no mining support can carry a fork and above which miners can't stop it.

Result holds across the range of pool profitability assumptions tested. The contested zone is narrow.

Below that lower threshold, a fork fails regardless of mining support. Above the upper threshold, it succeeds regardless of mining resistance.

What sits between is where mining dynamics actually matter and where most current governance debates are happening.

As for whether user node signaling translates into the kind of economic adoption that moves that threshold, that's a separate question the simulation addresses directly.

Full answer at the UW Bitcoin Research Institute workshop, July 13–17.
#Bitcoin #UWBRI #softfork

Lol, the hand signal at the end is the best! Looks like you are ...

2026-07-06T01:07:08Z

In reply to nevent1q…wxpx
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Lol, the hand signal at the end is the best! Looks like you are getting yourself a production crew and camera person ;)

I'll be briefing the local meetup on some of the soft ...

2026-07-05T22:41:26Z

I'll be briefing the local meetup on some of the soft simulation results!

quoting
nevent1q…h9v4
Meet up with us next Saturday July 11th 2pm at our regular location Mile Zero Marine in Downtown Portsmouth Virginia: mzm (npub1zzs…4lj8) where we will discuss and answer questions about the sovereign stack for freedom oriented self hosted tech and simulations of contentious soft forks. All are welcome, swing by and find out what the local Bitcoin community is up to!
https://757btc.org/meetups/2026/07/04/20260701-Meetup.html
#Virginia #Meetups #Bitcoin #757btc #757 #HamptonRoads

Meet up with us next Saturday July 11th 2pm at our regular ...

2026-07-05T22:34:42Z

Meet up with us next Saturday July 11th 2pm at our regular location Mile Zero Marine in Downtown Portsmouth Virginia: mzm (npub1zzs…4lj8) where we will discuss and answer questions about the sovereign stack for freedom oriented self hosted tech and simulations of contentious soft forks. All are welcome, swing by and find out what the local Bitcoin community is up to!
https://757btc.org/meetups/2026/07/04/20260701-Meetup.html
#Virginia #Meetups #Bitcoin #757btc #757 #HamptonRoads

One thing the simulation makes viscerally clear: a contested fork ...

2026-07-05T20:05:55Z

One thing the simulation makes viscerally clear: a contested fork doesn't resolve gradually. It stalls... then it doesn't.

Here's what the timeline actually looks like across 2,694 scenarios.

After the split, two chains run in parallel and when it breaks, it breaks fast. In the cascade scenarios, the decisive hashrate shift often happens within the first 500 blocks.. Profit-seeking pools drift toward whichever fork the price signal favors. Ideologically-committed pools hold their ground. For a stretch, it looks like a standoff, both chains viable, neither winning cleanly.

What the chart doesn't show is what breaks the standoff. One chain accumulates 2016 blocks first. Its difficulty adjusts sharply down, its blocks become far cheaper to mine. The profitability math flips for every pool still on the other side. Resolution happens fast.

The race that matters in a contested soft fork isn't block-by-block. It's who reaches the difficulty adjustment first. That single event is a cascade trigger and it's why most observable action happens in a compressed window once that threshold is crossed.

Three outcome shapes visible in the data: a clean win for one side, a cascade win for the other, and a contested equilibrium where neither chain breaks through.

General findings and useful frame for any contested fork. Full picture at UW BRI, July 13–17.
#Bitcoin #softfork #UWBRI

Happy 4th of July! ...

2026-07-05T03:20:00Z

Happy 4th of July!

I don't know this sounds pretty USA patriotic to me, is this ...

2026-07-04T18:18:08Z

In reply to nevent1q…mkmw
_________________________

I don't know this sounds pretty USA patriotic to me, is this the false flag?

A few people asked how the fork simulation actually works. The ...

2026-07-04T18:15:03Z

A few people asked how the fork simulation actually works. The modeling choices matter, and I'd rather they be on the table before I start sharing results. Here's the short version...

A contested soft fork (one where a chain split occurs because there isn't agreement in the network) is a decision problem for the entities who run Bitcoin's infrastructure. So the model represents them as three classes of actor, using the stakeholder taxonomy from the Blockchain Consensus Analysis Protocol (BCAP) as a starting point.
https://github.com/bitcoin-cap/bcap

Economic nodes: exchanges, institutional custodians, payment processors, merchants: weighted by the BTC they hold or the volume they transact. Mining pools: weighted by hashrate, each with its own ideology and tolerance for losses. User nodes: retail operators running their own full nodes with some amount of custodied Bitcoin and option to have hashrate representing solo miners.

Each actor re-evaluates the same way: first the rational choice (which fork is worth more / which do I hold), then ideology (am I committed enough to eat a loss), then inertia (is the gap big enough to justify moving). One pipeline, applied independently by every actor.

Then we vary what we can't know in advance, how adoption splits, how committed the pools are, how much conviction each actor has across thousands of scenarios on real Bitcoind nodes using warnet and watch what the network does.
https://github.com/bitcoin-dev-project/warnet

Results coming this week. Full picture at UW BRI, July 13–17.
#softfork #Bitcoin #UWBRI

Watching the BIP110 debate, I keep seeing the same honest ...

2026-07-01T17:34:34Z

Watching the BIP110 debate, I keep seeing the same honest admission from people who know Bitcoin deeply: past forks only tell us so much about this one. It's different. We'll have to wait and see.

They're right that it's different. But "wait and see" isn't the only option.

It's not that the past teaches us nothing, we learn plenty from earlier forks. It's that the outcome doesn't transfer directly. We map 2017 onto today, and the mapping breaks: Different hashrate concentration, different custody landscape, different players.

TheGuySwann (nprofile…vvhl) and jimmysong (nprofile…dzev) made sharp points: technical people tend to treat user behavior as more predictable. I think that's right. So the goal here isn't to predict how users will act... it's to respond systematically to the fact that we don't know.

To be clear, this isn't guessing, it's testing. You take structured assumptions about how users might influence the system, run each one, and ask whether any of them actually moves the outcome. The assumptions are explicit and on the table, not baked in and hidden.

That's the gap simulation fills. Not a crystal ball, you can't predict what a new rule set gets used for. But whether a contested fork resolves cleanly or splits the chain is something you can study under today's conditions, while staying honest about what you don't know.

quoting
nevent1q…d22z

jimmysong (nprofile…dzev) recently made a careful argument about BIP110: Bitcoin is a dynamic system, and you can't know a soft fork's consequences in advance. "I don't know the consequences," he wrote, "and neither do you."

He's right about the uncertainty and the limits of prediction. But there's a third option worth considering.

The choice isn't only between *knowing* an outcome (hubris) and *not knowing* it (watch and learn). For one specific question, will a contested fork succeed, fail, or split the chain? deep uncertainty doesn't mean zero information.

You can't predict a dynamic system's full trajectory. But you can bound it. You can map which conditions push a contested fork toward a clean win, which push it toward a sustained split, and where the boundary between them sits.

That's what simulation is for. We ran 2,694 contested-fork scenarios on real bitcoind nodes using Warnet with mining pools, exchanges, and users modeled as the actors BCAP (https://github.com/bitcoin-cap/bcap) defines, each making independent economic decisions to map exactly that boundary.

We don't claim to know whether BIP110 should activate. We claim something narrower: the success-or-failure of a contested fork isn't pure fog. It has structure, and that structure is measurable in advance.

Full methodology and findings at the University of Wyoming Bitcoin Research Institute workshop brad (nprofile…z73t) , July 13–17. Thread to follow. https://github.com/pfoytik/Bitcoin-Fork-Governance-Study

Epistemic humility and quantitative analysis aren't opposites. You can hold both.
nevent1q…gmzk

Nostr event nevent1qqs2yz5kr8nkhkhhv57cuxzxzthgmre0hhmu3fngjpwrn9evqphh9nsp8fmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujude4xa38gcewdaexwtmwdaehgatj8fex2mrp0yhrwdfhvf6xxtn0wfnj77r9dehkuttjdakk2mczypv6lex3m9etfxntvxrmafr43zflq4kw2gkht4230hmhdrrtyzmngee9epr

2026-07-01T13:52:24Z

GM to all the new felons in Virginia. 🫡

Yes! I will be leaking out the findings as we get closer to the ...

2026-06-30T18:09:39Z

In reply to nevent1q…90y2
_________________________

Yes! I will be leaking out the findings as we get closer to the workshop :)

757btc researcher! #nevent1q…w32g

2026-06-30T17:17:38Z

757btc researcher!

quoting
nevent1q…w32g

jimmysong (nprofile…dzev) recently made a careful argument about BIP110: Bitcoin is a dynamic system, and you can't know a soft fork's consequences in advance. "I don't know the consequences," he wrote, "and neither do you."

He's right about the uncertainty and the limits of prediction. But there's a third option worth considering.

The choice isn't only between *knowing* an outcome (hubris) and *not knowing* it (watch and learn). For one specific question, will a contested fork succeed, fail, or split the chain? deep uncertainty doesn't mean zero information.

You can't predict a dynamic system's full trajectory. But you can bound it. You can map which conditions push a contested fork toward a clean win, which push it toward a sustained split, and where the boundary between them sits.

That's what simulation is for. We ran 2,694 contested-fork scenarios on real bitcoind nodes using Warnet with mining pools, exchanges, and users modeled as the actors BCAP (https://github.com/bitcoin-cap/bcap) defines, each making independent economic decisions to map exactly that boundary.

We don't claim to know whether BIP110 should activate. We claim something narrower: the success-or-failure of a contested fork isn't pure fog. It has structure, and that structure is measurable in advance.

Full methodology and findings at the University of Wyoming Bitcoin Research Institute workshop brad (nprofile…z73t) , July 13–17. Thread to follow. https://github.com/pfoytik/Bitcoin-Fork-Governance-Study

Epistemic humility and quantitative analysis aren't opposites. You can hold both.
nevent1q…gmzk

@nprofile…dzev recently made a careful argument about BIP110: ...

2026-06-30T16:56:52Z

jimmysong (nprofile…dzev) recently made a careful argument about BIP110: Bitcoin is a dynamic system, and you can't know a soft fork's consequences in advance. "I don't know the consequences," he wrote, "and neither do you."

He's right about the uncertainty and the limits of prediction. But there's a third option worth considering.

The choice isn't only between *knowing* an outcome (hubris) and *not knowing* it (watch and learn). For one specific question, will a contested fork succeed, fail, or split the chain? deep uncertainty doesn't mean zero information.

You can't predict a dynamic system's full trajectory. But you can bound it. You can map which conditions push a contested fork toward a clean win, which push it toward a sustained split, and where the boundary between them sits.

That's what simulation is for. We ran 2,694 contested-fork scenarios on real bitcoind nodes using Warnet with mining pools, exchanges, and users modeled as the actors BCAP (https://github.com/bitcoin-cap/bcap) defines, each making independent economic decisions to map exactly that boundary.

We don't claim to know whether BIP110 should activate. We claim something narrower: the success-or-failure of a contested fork isn't pure fog. It has structure, and that structure is measurable in advance.

Full methodology and findings at the University of Wyoming Bitcoin Research Institute workshop brad (nprofile…z73t) , July 13–17. Thread to follow. https://github.com/pfoytik/Bitcoin-Fork-Governance-Study

Epistemic humility and quantitative analysis aren't opposites. You can hold both.

quoting
nevent1q…gmzk
I wrote on why the neutral position on BIP110 is the right one:

https://primal.net/jimmysong/on-overconfidence

Pitcher of Beer!? Now we are talking!

2026-06-28T19:21:18Z

In reply to nevent1q…g98z
_________________________

Pitcher of Beer!? Now we are talking!

"GoMining announced it mined a Bitcoin block with DMND mining ...

2026-06-28T19:20:45Z

In reply to nevent1q…kd09
_________________________

"GoMining announced it mined a Bitcoin block with DMND mining pool using Stratum V2’s Job Declaration, allowing the miner, rather than the pool, to build the block template and prioritize GoBTC Pay transactions. The company said the demonstration highlights miner-controlled block construction and Stratum V2 adoption."

Apparently first mined stratum v2 block, more decentralized ...

2026-06-28T19:19:06Z

In reply to nevent1q…al6r
_________________________

Apparently first mined stratum v2 block, more decentralized mining in the future! https://mempool.757btc.org/block/955318?showDetails=true&view=actual#details

Think of the children ...

2026-06-28T18:48:28Z

Think of the children

You can still set your datacarriersize in Core v30.2 and fetch ...

2026-06-28T18:02:08Z

In reply to nevent1q…ejlg
_________________________

You can still set your datacarriersize in Core v30.2 and fetch block templates from it with your Datum instance. Of course it works w/ CLN, which you need for instant payouts. No need for Knots

GM! Just had a good call with a good pleb. We're building the ...

2026-06-28T17:35:16Z

GM! Just had a good call with a good pleb.

We're building the circular economy sat by sat. Exciting times.

Now, back to work. 🫡

I haven't been to water country in a while, always a good ...

2026-06-28T11:18:16Z

In reply to nevent1q…r004
_________________________

I haven't been to water country in a while, always a good time, how was the crowd?

GM

2026-06-27T15:08:48Z

In reply to nevent1q…8xzs
_________________________

GM

Maybe the problem with your blue strap is that what you chose to ...

2026-06-26T02:43:33Z

In reply to nevent1q…exxs
_________________________

Maybe the problem with your blue strap is that what you chose to wear is actually not a watch at all?

Crocs were chosen by Mike Judge to be the footwear of the future ...

2026-06-26T02:35:41Z

In reply to nevent1q…ensz
_________________________

Crocs were chosen by Mike Judge to be the footwear of the future for the 2006 movie Idoicracy. They were an unknown startup at the time and Judge had little budget for wardrobe. When he found them he thought they were perfect for his dystopian future because they were so cheap and horrible that they could never possibly take off. He told the story years ago on Rogan

Prompt agent to spec out new feature for software product. Agent ...

2026-06-24T15:52:19Z

Prompt agent to spec out new feature for software product.

Agent estimates effort at two weeks. Instruct agent to begin work.

Agent completes implementation of new feature in 14min; 1 week, 6 days, 23 hours and 46 minutes ahead of schedule.

Interesting that agents have zero concept of agent time vs human time

Even if you try to be helpful you get punished in these ...

2026-06-23T11:27:50Z

Even if you try to be helpful you get punished in these permissioned systems....

quoting
nevent1q…an48
I created a placeholder iOS app for the App Store to warn users about scam “Sparrow” apps, of which there have been over a dozen.

The app was never published, but Apple flagged it (a year later) for “dishonest activity” and will terminate my Apple Developer account on June 30 unless the decision is reversed.

My gf got purple pilled harder than orange And it shows

2026-06-21T23:57:58Z

My gf got purple pilled harder than orange

And it shows

It seems like something like this to automatically target and ...

2026-06-19T19:30:39Z

In reply to nevent1q…cxsj
_________________________

It seems like something like this to automatically target and blind cameras would be effective. I would never advocate disabling someone else's property though. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334694331_DroneGraffiti_autonomous_multi-UAV_spray_painting

Not I, but the gentleman fighting for privacy has a go fund me ...

2026-06-19T19:23:49Z

In reply to nevent1q…sh0v
_________________________

Not I, but the gentleman fighting for privacy has a go fund me that he is actively updating his status with: https://www.gofundme.com/f/jeff-sovern-legal-fund

Great one! I love the Travis Bean shows!

2026-06-19T01:04:58Z

In reply to nevent1q…ur5h
_________________________

Great one! I love the Travis Bean shows!

Going fishing 🎣 this weekend 3 day weekend so starting ...

2026-06-18T23:52:51Z

Going fishing 🎣 this weekend

3 day weekend so starting tomorrow…

https://media.tenor.com/2OA0LBeZ8KUAAAAC/idiocracy-gun.gif

2026-06-18T14:33:14Z

In reply to nevent1q…r2pw
_________________________

Those look great!

2026-06-16T19:47:14Z

In reply to nevent1q…adhw
_________________________

Those look great!

Yeah what actually happened here? This note isn’t doing ...

2026-06-16T14:16:59Z

In reply to nevent1q…4d85
_________________________

Yeah what actually happened here? This note isn’t doing anything more than describing bitcoin working normally

Low IQ thinking focuses on the denominator. There will be ...

2026-06-16T13:02:08Z

In reply to nevent1q…c57h
_________________________

Low IQ thinking focuses on the denominator. There will be countless trillionaires when a loaf of bread is 200 billion 𝖬̶𝖺̶𝗋̶𝗄̶𝗌̶ Dollars

Nope. Posted a hint for you. How do you like wisp?

2026-06-15T12:44:43Z

In reply to nevent1q…hnhs
_________________________

Nope. Posted a hint for you. How do you like wisp?

Not Denver ...

2026-06-15T12:43:49Z

In reply to nevent1q…fc7g
_________________________

Not Denver