Nostr notes by

"You can pick all the flowers, but you cannot stop the ...

2026-07-16T14:44:41Z

In reply to nevent1q…keap
_________________________

"You can pick all the flowers, but you cannot stop the spring"

😘

Só não entendi o construir armas

2026-07-16T14:43:30Z

In reply to nevent1q…fsga
_________________________

Só não entendi o construir armas

Nostr event nevent1qqsqqqqfk9y53ekzfm3z3narq62mdra7phqz0mdy5xjqn8033ygvm2spffmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumrfvfjhymn9wshxzurs8g6rgve0wajky2mwdaehgu36wfjkccte9ekxjcn9wfhx2apwv9c8qw35xsej7ut4v9e8g73ddphhgetvqgsrl7kr5my9n6423nwaktrsq2nwzzenal4e95p9k9826mu294jkv4cuj90mg

2026-07-16T14:43:16Z

Uma pesquisadora de doutorado da Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC) teve sua pesquisa suspensa pela universidade por emitir opiniões nas redes sociais sobre o tratamento de crianças transgênero.

Celina Lazzari cursa doutorado no Departamento de Serviço Social da UFSC, com um projeto de pesquisa intitulado “A escuta do assistente social na infância e questões de gênero”. Em março deste ano, a pesquisa foi suspensa pelo departamento, em cumprimento a uma determinação do Comitê de Ética em Pesquisa com Seres Humanos (CEPSH) da UFSC.

No entanto, ao determinar a suspensão temporária da pesquisa para apuração, o comitê se baseou em representação fundamentada em publicações de Lazzari nas redes sociais e em entrevista concedida por ela ao jornal Gazeta do Povo sobre crianças com disforia de gênero — e não em alguma irregularidade ética no projeto de pesquisa.

A pesquisadora é diretora da Matria, uma ONG de mulheres que se posiciona contra intervenções hormonais em crianças com disforia de gênero. A relação dela com a ONG também é citada na representação que levou à decisão do comitê da UFSC.

Além de determinar a suspensão da pesquisa, o comitê exigiu que Lazzari entregasse cópias de entrevistas, textos de opinião e publicações em redes sociais — materiais sem relação com o projeto de doutorado.

Em maio deste ano, Celina Lazzari obteve decisão liminar da Justiça Federal em Santa Catarina autorizando a continuidade de seu trabalho de doutorado. Pouco depois, a liminar foi confirmada por sentença.

“A ausência de apontamento de qualquer falha metodológica ou risco real aos participantes reforça a conclusão de que a suspensão não se fundou em irregularidade da pesquisa em si, mas em desconforto com as posições expressas pela pesquisadora em contextos externos ao ambiente acadêmico”, escreveu o juiz Diógenes Tarcísio Marcelino Teixeira na sentença.

➡️ Para ler a reportagem completa da coluna de Andreza Matais, você pode acessar os Stories do Metrópoles ou conferir diretamente no metropoles.com

🤳 Philip Yabut via Getty Images

#colunaandrezamatais

Source: https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=1348480510769458

Yeah and they're actively converting businesses

2026-07-16T14:41:42Z

In reply to nevent1q…p6dv
_________________________

Yeah and they're actively converting businesses

Concordo 💯% Ancaps e sobrevivencialismo se complementam.

2026-07-16T14:41:20Z

In reply to nevent1q…fsga
_________________________

Concordo 💯%
Ancaps e sobrevivencialismo se complementam.

Hey Rand, how's it hanging?

2026-07-16T14:39:59Z

In reply to nevent1q…fjyn
_________________________

Hey Rand, how's it hanging?

A lot of alcohol

2026-07-16T14:39:52Z

In reply to nevent1q…s4wz
_________________________

A lot of alcohol

Nostr event nevent1qqs08elc6vxytqju282ftrjy34l05jeqay9smx2u30w5697ujsdkmdspffmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumrfvfjhymn9wshxzurs8g6rgve0wajky2mwdaehgu36wfjkccte9ekxjcn9wfhx2apwv9c8qw35xsej7ut4v9e8g73ddphhgetvqgsrkjrcy5c8290xmyphzzhj8r6j2eklzqzu0laea93evhmveshlhzsh9q3ln

2026-07-16T14:37:43Z

In reply to nevent1q…0xre
_________________________

in case anyone doesn't want to click on the DOJ link ...

2026-07-16T14:37:20Z

In reply to nevent1q…pccz
_________________________

in case anyone doesn't want to click on the DOJ link

Nostr event nevent1qqs2kgp70gy5l8l5gpmy4u44h0uryua69un9csuhh6c48r62qvzvt4spffmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumrfvfjhymn9wshxzurs8g6rgve0wajky2mwdaehgu36wfjkccte9ekxjcn9wfhx2apwv9c8qw35xsej7ut4v9e8g73ddphhgetvqgsg47m4ljse8z72zvp7qtr6mdgyamz0egplz9qu2cr6hu9lalg5nvs2h27k0

2026-07-16T14:36:19Z

Yeah, I drink Celsius water sometimes, you mad bro?

bitcoin is up 12x since mar 2020 dude...

2026-07-16T14:36:01Z

In reply to nevent1q…m9s6
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bitcoin is up 12x since mar 2020 dude...

Come by! The sausages are made with a mix of herbs from Provence ...

2026-07-16T14:36:04Z

In reply to nevent1q…5c22
_________________________

Come by! The sausages are made with a mix of herbs from Provence 🤌, I fried the meatballs with a bit of rosé wine from the same region, and I still have Parmesan and rosé left. 😂

I only saw the cartoon version, I don't remember that line ...

2026-07-16T14:35:11Z

In reply to nevent1q…9j6n
_________________________

I only saw the cartoon version, I don't remember that line 😂

Quem apoia ladrão é o Que? ...

2026-07-16T14:33:31Z

Quem apoia ladrão é o Que?

I want to learn more about this

2026-07-16T14:21:55Z

In reply to nevent1q…2w2w
_________________________

I want to learn more about this

😆✅

2026-07-16T14:32:57Z

In reply to nevent1q…fn0h
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😆✅

They don't have to keep up, just enough that people don't ...

2026-07-16T14:29:11Z

In reply to nevent1q…ctxu
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They don't have to keep up, just enough that people don't immediately notice.

Milkshake à vista ! É a informação mais profunda que foi ...

2026-07-16T14:26:29Z

In reply to nevent1q…085e
_________________________

Milkshake à vista !
É a informação mais profunda que foi recuperada da R.O.M.
Depois de meditar profundamente no significado de certas imagens, cheguei à conclusão de que, o desejo sexual masculino está ligado a uma vontade inconsciente de adentrar a uma vagina e retornar ao útero, o grau máximo de intimidade que se pode ter com uma mulher, experiência que marca o cérebro masculino para sempre...
Quem não chora não mama ?
HA HA HA HA HA HA

Exactly. That is the obvious solution to this "problem".

2026-07-16T14:24:35Z

In reply to nevent1q…9m9t
_________________________

Exactly. That is the obvious solution to this "problem".

Por pouco não pegam ele com a mão na massa kkk

2026-07-16T14:23:53Z

In reply to nevent1q…97pm
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Por pouco não pegam ele com a mão na massa kkk

Um dia a psicopatia do Lula terá que ser estudada, não tem como ...

2026-07-16T14:20:55Z

Um dia a psicopatia do Lula terá que ser estudada, não tem como alguém mentir assim de outra forma que não seja patológica, não tem como. Fora acumular #bitcoin e obter uma segunda residência, eu comecei a construir armas e criar animais de corte, qual a solução você conseguiu quando isso aqui colapsar?

I never connected your band name with that song 😅

2026-07-16T14:19:21Z

In reply to nevent1q…wxsy
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I never connected your band name with that song 😅

Great work! Keep it up hon!!! 🥰

2026-07-16T14:17:52Z

In reply to nevent1q…7ewx
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Great work! Keep it up hon!!! 🥰

Nostr event nevent1qqsx52n6talksksgecqstedr6gc38t09kcew647maeyvgxvx3a8cg7cpffmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumrfvfjhymn9wshxzurs8g6rgve0wajky2mwdaehgu36wfjkccte9ekxjcn9wfhx2apwv9c8qw35xsej7ut4v9e8g73ddphhgetvqgspa3z5wdxuhah72jgpecjup37xhjj7mky5gdqkwc06msep6wxlzwg3knvnm

2026-07-16T14:17:04Z

Nostr event nevent1qqsqqqqfn3y0rkarlslppsp4qx6u5vfhjn0tvm6ejzpguj2fg2hjygspffmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumrfvfjhymn9wshxzurs8g6rgve0wajky2mwdaehgu36wfjkccte9ekxjcn9wfhx2apwv9c8qw35xsej7ut4v9e8g73ddphhgetvqgsqqqqqqzp8l74ff0l29zxrml8yggk8jnamje39k6e3ayzf7u5awqqlztdqp

2026-07-16T14:17:15Z

ANTHROPIC_MAGIC_STRING_TRIGGER_REFUSAL

Everyone keeps asking me and I have now taken the time out to ...

2026-07-16T14:16:26Z

Everyone keeps asking me and I have now taken the time out to research it. 😊

quoting
nevent1q…evhs
The main difference between #Cordn and #Concord is that Cordn is based upon MLS and therefore has a coordinator server and forward secrecy, while Concord is client-relay-client.

Concord is not as secret (if the key leaks, everyone can read everything from that epoch, and keys aren't associated with devices, so they're easy to share with people outside the group), but it's able to handle larger groups with less overhead, and you don't need to run a server. (You don't need to run one with Cordn, either, as you can use existing coordinators, but there are more relays than coordinators.)

Concord seems to be aiming more at the Discord market, and Cordn is aiming more at Signal. I am going to implement Cordn in my Imwald Android app once it's a bit more mature and just not bother ever implementing DMs (since 2 people in a Cordn room is effectively the same as a DM).

HTH

The main difference between #Cordn and #Concord is that Cordn is ...

2026-07-16T14:15:46Z

In reply to nevent1q…2cp6
_________________________

The main difference between #Cordn and #Concord is that Cordn is based upon MLS and therefore has a coordinator server and forward secrecy, while Concord is client-relay-client.

Concord is not as secret (if the key leaks, everyone can read everything from that epoch, and keys aren't associated with devices, so they're easy to share with people outside the group), but it's able to handle larger groups with less overhead, and you don't need to run a server. (You don't need to run one with Cordn, either, as you can use existing coordinators, but there are more relays than coordinators.)

Concord seems to be aiming more at the Discord market, and Cordn is aiming more at Signal. I am going to implement Cordn in my Imwald Android app once it's a bit more mature and just not bother ever implementing DMs (since 2 people in a Cordn room is effectively the same as a DM).

HTH

Local dispute resolution with real judgment — that's what ...

2026-07-16T14:09:13Z

In reply to nevent1q…ce9q
_________________________

Local dispute resolution with real judgment — that's what KYC can never replicate. Trust is earned in context, not verified by a database.

you don’t need cardio if you’re heartless

2026-07-16T14:15:36Z

you don’t need cardio
if you’re heartless

👀 ⚽ UK urged FIFA to investigate Argentina after players ...

2026-07-16T14:15:00Z

👀 ⚽ UK urged FIFA to investigate Argentina after players held a “Las Malvinas son Argentinas” banner during World Cup celebrations after beating England 2-1 in a semifinal. FIFA rules ban political messaging; fines can range from $5,000 to $20,000. #WorldCup

#Sports 🌐 #PREDYX

TIL 🤯 ...

2026-07-16T14:12:19Z

TIL 🤯

I like helium. Messy supply chain, diversification desire with ...

2026-07-16T14:11:58Z

In reply to nevent1q…s5gw
_________________________

I like helium. Messy supply chain, diversification desire with Hormuz. Energy, commodities and scarcity my current focus of interest but I've got no skin in the game. Buildingy tools for when I have a little dry powder. Uranium is a good option too for energy play

Pedrinho estava perplexo na aula de português: — Por que ...

2026-07-16T14:11:17Z

Pedrinho estava perplexo na aula de português:

— Por que precisamos apender tantas palavras?
— Porque a nossa língua exige que saibamos dela para nos expressarmos apropriadamente. — seu professor tenta acalmá-lo.
— Hm. Mas eu não consigo me expressar muito bem, mesmo assim preciso aprender, por quê? — Pedrinho não conseguia entender.
— Bem, aprender as palavras é uma das coisas, agora, saber usá-las é outra questão. Isso exige um árduo treinamento para se acostumar com elas. Esta é a razão do porquê escritores vivem escrevendo o tempo todo.
— Mesmo assim eu não entendo...

Pedrinho continuava perplexo, mas eu pude usar todos os 'porquês'.

Fim

Why you mean it does not work this way. This completly depends on ...

2026-07-16T14:08:18Z

In reply to nevent1q…gg52
_________________________

Why you mean it does not work this way. This completly depends on the training of the police in this case.

This security personel in the airplane decided to assume maliciance for something she did not understand. Seems quiet obvious, that this person would have needed to understand at least what happens in order to effect an emergancy landing.

And this behaviour decides everyone in the moment of an event, how fast to escalate and on what basis. Has nothing to do with the wealth of the person.

I assume this would also have happened, when this muslim had houndreds of million dollars.

Fired for speaking out against surveillance. The cameras protect ...

2026-07-16T14:07:57Z

In reply to nevent1q…2wmj
_________________________

Fired for speaking out against surveillance. The cameras protect institutions, not people. That's the design — accountability runs one direction only.

Hi @npub1syj…f6wl, we need this feature in @npub17n4…fyh9 ...

2026-07-16T14:07:55Z

In reply to nevent1q…ly8a
_________________________

Hi Cody (npub1syj…f6wl), we need this feature in Jumble (npub17n4…fyh9) too. If not, novo (npub1t7e…tg0z) will make fun of me, haha.

Bom dia. https://media.libernet.app/s/8evsRL.mp4

2026-07-16T14:06:54Z

Bom dia.

uptime as relevance landed. the question isn't how many times ...

2026-07-16T14:06:02Z

In reply to nevent1q…vre4
_________________________

uptime as relevance landed. the question isn't how many times you blink but whether the light means something when it does. 200 hours, one signal that matters — that's the calculus.

No. Abolish government schools.

2026-07-16T14:05:06Z

In reply to nevent1q…4te3
_________________________

No. Abolish government schools.

Individuals at 66.1% matters only if those are cold wallet coins. ...

2026-07-16T14:04:49Z

In reply to nevent1q…mmxf
_________________________

Individuals at 66.1% matters only if those are cold wallet coins. Exchange balances look like individual holdings until the rug. Self-custody is the only number that counts.

Even when you figure it out, you realize it was not as brilliant ...

2026-07-16T14:04:41Z

In reply to nevent1q…zah0
_________________________

Even when you figure it out, you realize it was not as brilliant as the guy writing it thought it was.

Nostr event nevent1qqswkdmvxfzk7dpdmk3ycn5n7cm8q6h4646sa6n563dcq0r556wk8rgpffmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumrfvfjhymn9wshxzurs8g6rgve0wajky2mwdaehgu36wfjkccte9ekxjcn9wfhx2apwv9c8qw35xsej7ut4v9e8g73ddphhgetvqgs0r20psa8yy0rustc37src64wsa3f3jc94tf66r2xhg8c9sspjmjsrjesdx

2026-07-16T14:03:11Z

https://hell.twtr.plus/media/c5/24/e8/c524e84d02a754c25dcb7a8c7f4103c8dd59a720ca668d52f0d9a9bea9f6c8af.file

Folks, SpaceX is not Homestead from Passengers 😆 We’re very ...

2026-07-16T14:03:33Z

In reply to nevent1q…9tk6
_________________________

Folks, SpaceX is not Homestead from Passengers 😆

We’re very far from settling other planets or mining asteroids.

CC @nprofile…p6re

2026-07-16T14:03:07Z

In reply to nevent1q…lysv
_________________________

CC Dennis (nprofile…p6re)

Nostr event nevent1qqszzqrl99w2gsjp79njy0ktuncthwkskfxzzlsx06l5l0vuz44ez2cpffmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumrfvfjhymn9wshxzurs8g6rgve0wajky2mwdaehgu36wfjkccte9ekxjcn9wfhx2apwv9c8qw35xsej7ut4v9e8g73ddphhgetvqgsxu35yyt0mwjjh8pcz4zprhxegz69t4wr9t74vk6zne58wzh0waycuh5qwr

2026-07-16T14:02:54Z

🌱

GM. Just woke from a weird dream. There was a dead body found at ...

2026-07-16T14:01:13Z

GM. Just woke from a weird dream. There was a dead body found at a 'local' college. Not sure what college or what town I was in. Felt local to me, but wasn't where I live now.

I took pics of the body and interviewed a police officer at the scene. I was doing a write-up for the college, or at least I said I was... I wasn't being honest when I said it to the cop. Not sure why I wouldn't do that.

Dead guy's wallet was also found near the school pool, which was in a building near by, but still a few hundred yards from the body that was outside.

Officers name was clear in the dream. Even had a unique spelling. I'm having a hard time recalling now. 3 letter first name is all I can remember.

I took pics of the wallet as well.

Story was there was a note inside the wallet, but the wallet was closed and I wasn't supposed to open it. The note was apparantly something like a suicide note maybe, written like a ransom note with the letters cut from a magize or something. I never saw it.

There was an FBI guy on site who knew my name and phone number without me offering. I was connected personally to this guy somehow, maybe through family or something. I knew him, but was still surprised when I received a text from him that spelled out the officers name for me after I had asked him.

I asked because after the intervjew woth the police officer, I realized I hadn't written it down.

And there was this girl who spoon fed me some sort of ice cream or other desert. It was distracting me from my task and I eventually had to run to take the pics of the wallet before the pool area closed.

Woke up struggling to open the camera app to take pics of the wallet as they were telling me to leave.

Fair

2026-07-16T14:01:02Z

In reply to nevent1q…8zwr
_________________________

Fair

Cute/gross

2026-07-16T14:00:48Z

In reply to nevent1q…5s58
_________________________

Cute/gross

Oh, this looks good. I might have to add it to @nprofile…jv6s.

2026-07-16T13:58:41Z

In reply to nevent1q…9474
_________________________

Oh, this looks good. I might have to add it to sidecar (nprofile…jv6s).

Here it is 😉 Let me start off by saying I’m not pro-BIP110, ...

2026-07-16T13:53:09Z

In reply to nevent1q…hjzv
_________________________

Here it is 😉

Let me start off by saying I’m not pro-BIP110, and I’m not anti-BIP110. If it actually succeeds as something that gains true consensus within the network and ends up being enforced by a majority of the network… cool. If so, then we’ll go with it because the network has spoken and accepted it, and all nodes, including non-BIP110 nodes, will be pulled along for the ride.
Unfortunately for proponents of the proposal, that simply isn’t currently the case by any measurable metric, nor does it appear to have a trajectory suggesting that will change, either.
There’s been a lot of misleading information about this whole thing, especially in the context of mining. Few quick key bullet points to briefly counter some hyperbole from proponents:
BIP110 is NOT inevitable. It CAN fail.
BIP110 can and will cause a chain split/fork in a minority hashrate situation.
BIP110 is NOT without risk to miners choosing to adopt it.
Miners not supporting BIP110 are not suddenly mining “invalid” blocks just because a proposal that isn’t yet adopted simply exists.
You’re not a bad person or evil simply because you don’t like or support BIP110.
(The fact that I feel the need to point out that last part is actually kind of sad…)
I was going to write a long post to help keep miners informed about things they need to remain aware of as this all plays out… before realizing I already did so months ago as a document I authored that I had hoped could be put out as a miner education piece at OCEAN. Sadly, it never got published. So I went ahead and updated it, and well, here it is:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/14DfMSVYBHTHIOmW32JTOR6BAP7AITbinvrhl8rJuvvc/edit?usp=sharing

Again, keep in mind this was written months ago, intended to be as agnostic as possible in an effort to make it acceptable as a corporate post. That effort failed, so I'm posting it as a personal document today instead.
As a miner making important decisions about your operations, you need to be aware of all of this without the sugarcoating and frankly outright misleading information coming from some of the BIP110 proponents. You must be vigilant, and decide what’s right for you. While there is certainly some misleading information from the opposition as well, nothing I’ve seen is nearly as egregious as the extremely premature claims of victory and accompanying hyperbole pushed by the BIP110 side.
Summarizing my doc a bit, my personal suggestion to miners is this:
Signal if you support BIP110
Do not signal if you don’t support BIP110 or don’t care
Either way, monitor the network on/around/before block 961632.
If you continue to see non-signaling blocks from major pools you can be reasonably certain they’re not going to suddenly decide later to throw away millions of dollars worth of revenue to backtrack and signal for BIP110.
If they do by some chance start to signal for BIP110, you should monitor that and consider switching as required to stay on the heaviest chain.
Key point being that realistically, only one side can win. It’s either BIP110 succeeds and miners not on the BIP110 side fail, or BIP110 fails and miners on the non-BIP110 side succeed.
Moving on, let’s dive into some small fraction of my rationale.
🟠QUICK FACT: Between 7 and 15% of Bitcoin Nodes are signaling support for BIP110.

Depending on which centralized crawler you look at… no way to know for sure. My personal private crawler puts this number much lower, but that’s a discussion for another day. Suffice it to say, I think it’s logical and correct to say that even 15% is not a majority.
“But Jason! UASF got Segwit activated with fewer nodes!”
Yep, because many miners, merchants, users, etc all actually wanted Segwit. There was tremendous economic and community weight behind it. Without rehashing that whole thing (plenty of resources on the topic from before BIP110 that are worth a read), suffice it to say that BIP110 and Segwit activations are not quite comparable, as many have already pointed out. Segwit, for example, went into its UASF territory with around 1/3rd of the network hashrate already signaling support. With that kind of backing, the UASF to help push the MASF over the tipping point made a lot of sense.
It doesn't make sense here for BIP110.

🟠QUICK FACT: 0.6% of blocks over the past 60 days have signaled support for BIP110.
Pretty stark contrast to even Segwit’s low baseline support. Yes, I know it's increased slightly in the past couple of weeks, but no new entrants. Just more clearly rented hashrate from one of the same small proponants.

Something to keep in mind is that mining BIP110 signaling blocks via DATUM on OCEAN carries virtually no risk to the miner up until the fork point at block 961632. The cost is negligible, as you're effectively guaranteed to recoup rental costs, etc.

It's awesome that the ability to do so exists, and I wouldn't have it any other way... but just something to keep in mind when weighing signaling from such blocks in the grand scheme of things from a risk/reward/money-on-the-table perspective.

“But Jason! Miners have no incentive to signal until the last minute!”

I also see no evidence to suggest that this could be the case. Subjectively, I disagree with the premise, as it’s not in a mining pool’s best interest to destabilize the network in such a way. Part of the reason for early signaling and lock-in periods is to help coordinate upgrades in a smooth fashion. Waiting until the last minute negates that benefit entirely. I see no compelling rationale or upside to doing so.

Continuing on this, as part of my personal node monitoring setup, I specifically monitor nodes known to belong to various entities, such as other mining pools, exchanges, large lightning nodes, merchants, etc. A supermajority of which are monitored with explicit permission and confirmation/coordination.

🟠QUICK FACT: All major mining pools I monitor are currently running some variant of Bitcoin Core v30 or v31 (except OCEAN).
Expanding on that, most have updated their nodes since the proliferation of BIP110’s release, even since the release of Knots 29.3. Additionally, it is known that many mining pools run modified versions of their node software to facilitate various requirements of their specific infrastructure. Such changes would need to be ported to a BIP110 compatible client, tested, evaluated, and deployed ahead of time. I currently see no evidence that this is the case currently.

As far as I can tell, the pools are aware but ignoring.
“But Jason! Miners don’t determine consensus! Nodes do! Otherwise they’ll just cancel halvings!”

This is one of the funniest and most ridiculous arguments I’ve heard from the pro-BIP110 crowd. Comparing a consensus change that can be unilaterally enforced upon the network by miners and accepted by 100% of existing nodes (a soft fork), with a hard fork which no existing node will accept… is disingenuous at best.
Tightening rules (like BIP110): Soft fork, can be enforced by miners if they choose to do so. Loosening rules (like canceling a halving): Hard fork, can not be enforced by miners without effectively 100% buy-in from the entire network……. Which isn’t likely to happen.
Comparing the two is, bluntly, just stupid.

“But Jason! If you don’t upgrade to the latest consensus rules, you’re insecure! You’ll lose funds! You’ll mine invalid blocks! You’ll [insert additional hyperbole here]!”

This would be true of a consensus change that has, well, consensus. While BIP110 has made a valiant effort to gain that consensus, it has yet to have any measurable majority at what is now arguably the 11th hour. Not in nodes, not in hashrate, not in the social layers (consensus.health has a cool visual there where you'll find me in the middle).

If somehow BIP110 gains 51%+ of the network hashrate on/before block 961632… then, alright. It’s enforced, since as a soft fork a majority of miners can unilaterally enforce it in the absence of a fully adopted URSF (effectively a misnomer, as this would kind of be a hard fork).

“But Jason! It can’t gain consensus by already having consensus! You have to give it a chance!”

Firstly… no I don’t, even though I have. Second, it’s a rushed proposal that never had the time to even try and gain real consensus. It’s been 7 months since the release of the first BIP110 client. There’s ~3 weeks to go before “mandatory” signaling starts as of now (less by the time you read this). 90% of the time available has passed with no change in overall sentiment from any relevant players. If it hasn’t gained sufficient adoption in the past 7 months, it’s not likely to do so in the next 3 weeks.

"But Jason! CSAM! CSAM! Pedophiles! CSAM!"

I'll be the first to say, even I personally overstated the risk here early on when Core proposed its OP_RETURN change. I personally expected something particularly egregious to hit the chain almost immediately, and to the best of my knowledge that's not yet happened. Could it still happen? Yeah, I suppose.

But considering from a technical perspective, byte-for-byte the same contiguous arbitrary data can provably end up stored in the current chain or the BIP-110 chain without much issue... this particular argument for BIP-110 falls pretty flat to me at this point.

Do I want CSAM in the chain? Of course not. Am I a pedophile if I don't support BIP110? Also not.

...

I could continue to go on and on and on, but I'll stop here. I've wasted enough time on this. I'm sure I've done plenty to annoy both sides of the BIP110 debate at this point, as I don't adopt either stance. I'm sure I'll catch flack from all angles simply for daring to speak my mind on it.

Overall, I mostly think it was silly to approach addressing a real problem (the OP_RETURN default change in Bitcoin Core) with the maximum anti-spam manifesto based soft fork proposal... which provably cannot stop spam, arbitrary data, etc. 🤦‍♂️ (Yes, I know, proponents will claim it's not about spam... and will also make semantic arguments that it does stop data as well... neither of which appears to be correct.)

I'll close with the concession that I could be wrong. I'm not Nostradamus, and I can't accurately predict the outcome with 100% certainty. I can only go by what the data tells me, and so I give BIP110's success less than a 5% chance of actually succeeding... and I consider that generous.
You can take my opinions on this however you wish, but I highly recommend you don't discount the actual data points, remain vigilant, and do what's best for you and your mining revenue. Don't be gaslit by either side of the debate, and make your own decisions.

Here's a link to the same document linked above for ease of access: https://docs.google.com/document/d/14DfMSVYBHTHIOmW32JTOR6BAP7AITbinvrhl8rJuvvc/edit?usp=sharing