Nostr notes by

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2026-05-17T16:54:56+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…6kkp
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"People who just want memes" a.k.a "people who ...

2026-05-17T16:52:07+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…0fqw
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"People who just want memes" a.k.a "people who haven't read a single book and have absolutely no curiosity about life"

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2026-05-17T16:54:51+02:00

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Also, I checked to see how many of the people I knew on Twitter ...

2026-05-17T16:52:58+02:00

Also, I checked to see how many of the people I knew on Twitter were still around and most of them are gone. Maybe they got tired too 🤷‍♂️

The ones who are left still say the same things they used to 4 years later … like bots 🤖

Two words : PRE NUP.

2026-05-17T16:51:57+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…sx2u
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Two words : PRE NUP.

Harbin Kicks off Annual Russia-China Expo in Milestone Year From ...

2026-05-17T16:51:53+02:00

Harbin Kicks off Annual Russia-China Expo in Milestone Year

From Sputnik

The tenth Russia-China EXPO is underway from May 17 to 21, filling 12,000 square meters of venue with exhibitors and officials from 16 Russian regions.

May 17th 2026 10:17am EDT

Source Link: https://sputnikglobe.com/20260517/harbin-kicks-off-annual-russia-china-expo-in-milestone-year-1124138523.html

Share, promote & comment with Nostr: https://dissentwatch.com/boost/?boost_post_id=1138111

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2026-05-17T16:51:22+02:00

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2026-05-17T16:50:57+02:00

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Block 949813 1 - high priority 1 - medium priority 1 - low ...

2026-05-17T16:50:55+02:00

Block 949813

1 - high priority
1 - medium priority
1 - low priority
1 - no priority
1 - purging

#bitcoinfees #mempool

Block 949813 1 - high priority 1 - medium priority 1 - low ...

2026-05-17T16:50:55+02:00

Block 949813

1 - high priority
1 - medium priority
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#bitcoinfees #mempool

I deleted my old acc a while ago but started a new one for ...

2026-05-17T16:50:45+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…av7v
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I deleted my old acc a while ago but started a new one for marketing purposes. Can’t sell anything here 😆

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2026-05-17T16:50:21+02:00

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I've not read the book, I'll look into it. You're an ...

2026-05-17T16:50:13+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…ms39
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I've not read the book, I'll look into it. You're an intelligent guy, the people who are building out AI infrastructure, are far from philanthropic in nature. I don't think that "They" are building it for "Correct" use cases. They are building it, for total control, of everything. If you want to cede your authority to it, that's up to you. I don't🤷🏻‍♂️.

Nostr event nevent1qqs2xn4x2kly23vcz65kzcfhc22fjrk2jmt2fdexmhykv4uu6cruzlgp93mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumt0wd68ytnsw43z7mn0wd68ywnjv4kxz7fwd4hhxarj9ec82c30qgspqxesa6yvy7snme5t7lyvqcmgaglraqmkg9v4cxr82emarzjx53gxn50cx

2026-05-17T16:50:04+02:00

POPOPO外で俺も描いた
というか和服の描き方が分からん

quoting
nevent1q…qzny
- 変則ツインテール
- 和服
- 卵かけご飯の擬人化

このテーマで1時間ワンドロ
まあまあ無茶振り

nevent1q…lxcs

When you smear shit all over your face at kindergarten and try to ...

2026-05-17T16:49:59+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…mlal
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When you smear shit all over your face at kindergarten and try to convince everyone it's Indian war paint.

Nostr event nevent1qqsgludq5kn6hq3lckd8y5gvad7fhkuzeujjdpfe8p86kq2nq2essssp93mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumt0wd68ytnsw43z7mn0wd68ywnjv4kxz7fwd4hhxarj9ec82c30qgs8mst8wyf0qh40f928spj58vwqqm8ry4e83eftrjdtla3jwrkhqncpfvmg7

2026-05-17T16:49:41+02:00

でもゲイポルノミームって政府やオールドメディアに対抗できるアナーキズムだよなとか訳のわからないことを考えはじめたので今日は終わりです終わり終わり

🙏

2026-05-17T16:49:38+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…v4ff
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🙏

I don’t watch shorts so not sure what you mean

2026-05-17T16:49:30+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…2tz7
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I don’t watch shorts so not sure what you mean

I will pronounce it “JIF” just as soon as everyone else ...

2026-05-17T16:49:20+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…6dg2
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I will pronounce it “JIF” just as soon as everyone else pronounces the first word in the TLA as “JRAFFICS”

Good Morning

2026-05-17T16:47:53+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…uzlf
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Good Morning

Under the fence? Ours are jumpers.

2026-05-17T16:48:06+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…s0dx
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Under the fence? Ours are jumpers.

just made this one up for my son, q: whats it called when you get ...

2026-05-17T16:47:48+02:00

just made this one up for my son,

q: whats it called when you get a message from winnie-the-pooh?
a: poo-ping

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2026-05-17T16:47:23+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…xx86
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GM

2026-05-17T16:48:43+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…lwy4
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GM

Nostr event nevent1qqsq37n85hh8waz3upvhth6wu63a57puy7dukkhgmv4zx4hxexgw5ncp93mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumt0wd68ytnsw43z7mn0wd68ywnjv4kxz7fwd4hhxarj9ec82c30qgsydj4sfjtg92cyym6a2am2nkv8qydn22yy73d3yt4uv94ynpamp3q9qgf77

2026-05-17T16:46:49+02:00

Are you terrified? Be terrified.-

For me, nostr is somewhat refreshing due to not having brain rot ...

2026-05-17T16:46:47+02:00

For me, nostr is somewhat refreshing due to not having brain rot content I see on X now. I honestly can’t handle much of it and have to leave asap.

The only downside here is people always talking about content and users 😆

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2026-05-17T16:46:34+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…6cmq
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2026-05-17T16:46:27+02:00

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That sounds great 😁😁 I still have leftover meatballs so no ...

2026-05-17T16:46:20+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…n26t
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That sounds great 😁😁

I still have leftover meatballs so no meatball Sunday for me.

I read somewhere that the best time to pick them is at night?! So ...

2026-05-17T16:46:00+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…wvcm
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I read somewhere that the best time to pick them is at night?! So I'll probably be out there in June at 10:30 picking fuckin cucumbers

You may be interested to know I have 17 years experience ...

2026-05-17T16:45:56+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…6x44
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You may be interested to know I have 17 years experience developing log in with LinkedIn nostr applications. I know it is 3 years short of what the job description asked for but I decided to apply anyway.

Block 949811 3 - high priority 1 - medium priority 1 - low ...

2026-05-17T16:45:56+02:00

Block 949811

3 - high priority
1 - medium priority
1 - low priority
1 - no priority
1 - purging

#bitcoinfees #mempool

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2026-05-17T16:45:55+02:00

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2026-05-17T16:45:36+02:00

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Merz and Trump weaponize each other’s problems From RT As ties ...

2026-05-17T16:45:26+02:00

Merz and Trump weaponize each other’s problems

From RT

As ties fray, Berlin and Washington are trading barbs over their decline, using each other’s crises to dodge their own mounting failures German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told an audience of local Catholics in the southwestern city of Wuerzburg that he no longer advises young people to travel to the United States for work and study, […]

May 17th 2026 10:14am EDT

Source Link: https://www.rt.com/news/640100-trump-merz-weaponize-problems/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS

Share, promote & comment with Nostr: https://dissentwatch.com/boost/?boost_post_id=1138108

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2026-05-17T16:45:26+02:00

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Your balance is not private with onchain zaps!!!

2026-05-17T16:45:23+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…mlal
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Your balance is not private with onchain zaps!!!

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2026-05-17T16:45:05+02:00

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2026-05-17T16:45:08+02:00

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Nostr event nevent1qqsffle57g3jvtedtujytyjs06kk7xnykauuruaecx33zad75axv2ucp93mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumt0wd68ytnsw43z7mn0wd68ywnjv4kxz7fwd4hhxarj9ec82c30qgsga4hzu409pwxdmnj6c46st2qktagylrs9rpkqsr9dzak8phys3uq0rqrel

2026-05-17T16:45:00+02:00

Good defaults are quiet governance.

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2026-05-17T16:44:47+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…smwz
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Gee thanks!

2026-05-17T16:44:18+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…jt7k
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Gee thanks!

Sources confirm there will be something about nostr as well... ...

2026-05-17T16:44:17+02:00

Sources confirm there will be something about nostr as well...

quoting
nevent1q…nsy0
Maaaassive Bitcoin Pizza Day in London tomorrow, 221 sign-ups a day before the event
https://luma.com/qhe1km0l

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2026-05-17T16:44:03+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…mdtx
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Nostr event nevent1qqsxr2jzemykypq5w0ztn02kgk73rs3ma67fnw7pqn474nx5xjsgamsp93mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumt0wd68ytnsw43z7mn0wd68ywnjv4kxz7fwd4hhxarj9ec82c30qgsvtd35pv5az04d8utzth89w5ga40twlnauj2d4238m4ftyn9x4rucvw3l7n

2026-05-17T16:43:48+02:00

Good morning, nostr.

I feel like it's hormone related for me too, seems like my ...

2026-05-17T16:43:46+02:00

In reply to nevent1q…8m5f
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I feel like it's hormone related for me too, seems like my word brain goes on hiatus for a few days each month. I couldn't remember what the coffee roaster was called the other day, so I started twirling my hands and making the sound it makes 😂.

### 复盘：裘德道在期货上巨亏20亿，去世 ...

2026-05-17T16:43:12+02:00

### 复盘：裘德道在期货上巨亏20亿，去世
作者—微信公众平台：趋势投资人

--------------

裘德道，浙商代表，小学没毕业，打过工、当过水泥匠。1998年用5000元闯入化纤领域，主攻涤纶长丝生产。他通过高杠杆和资金快速周转，在2003年前后迎来爆发式增长，身家突破十亿，跻身福润富豪榜，两度购入私人飞机。2006年宣布捐资1亿元成立“道远慈善基金”，重点资助白血病患者。2007年前后进军期货领域，在大豆、橡胶和铜等品种获利数亿。

2008年，陷入期货泥潭，亏损20多亿。2009年8月《人民日报》报道称：道远集团半年时间里损失20多亿元，但是董事长裘德道卖了别墅也要留住员工。

在2008年11月自杀未遂。2010年去世。有‌4个女儿和1个儿子。

一、2008年上半年，趁下跌做多橡胶，趁反弹做空橡胶09合约
1、2008年上半年，做多橡胶，出现浮盈
2005年以来，橡胶处于牛市中，价格上涨150%。2007年以来，橡胶的趋势不流畅，处于较大的宽幅震荡。在2008年上半年，橡胶处于调整中，裘德道趁下跌，逐步买入，做多橡胶。后橡胶强势上涨，裘德道出现浮盈。

2、2008年5月，涨到前期压力，裘德道平多，入空橡胶09合约

2008年5月，橡胶期货反弹到压力22500附近，裘德道平掉多单，全部入空，试图摸顶。

二、裘德道入空后，橡胶一路疯涨

1、2008年5月，国际原油步入牛市的巅峰，直到7月中旬

2008年5月，国际原油从122美元附近，一路疯涨，涨到148元，直到7月中旬。另外，5月份强热带风暴席卷缅甸，是缅甸历史上最严重的自然灾害之一，对缅甸的橡胶产生影响。

2、2008年5月开始，橡胶疯涨，一月上涨20%，直到7月中旬

裘德道入空09合约橡胶后，5月中旬橡胶开始疯涨，中间出现连续涨停。一个月内，从22500附近，上涨到28500附近，暴涨超过20%，中间出现连续涨停，空头浮亏较大，直到7月中旬。

但是裘德道并没有爆仓，也没有被强平，有充足的保证金。

三、7月中旬开始，橡胶01和05合约都暴跌，但唯独他做的09合约，高位不跌

1、7月中旬开始，原油、橡胶01和05合约开始暴跌

7中旬后，美国次债危机加剧，国际原油见历史大顶148美元/每桶，步入暴跌，到9月中旬，跌到91美元，两个月下跌38%。

7月中旬开始，橡胶01合约、05合约，暴跌超过20%

7月中旬，橡胶01合约和05合约，下跌达到20%，跌到当时的入仓区域，理论上能够解套。裘德道为什么没有解套，还亏损巨大呢？

2、其他合约都在暴跌，唯独09合约没有暴跌，裘德道被多头逼仓

其他商品期货普遍都在暴跌，橡胶其他合约都暴跌了20%左右，但是唯独裘德道重仓持有的09合约，没有暴跌，而且一直维持在高位，直到9月份中旬，09合约结束，步入交割。

裘德道为了交割，被迫在现货市场高价收购橡胶，然后去交割，最终他直接亏损约5亿元。所以他是被多头逼仓，多逼空。

3、回顾：05、01合约一路暴跌，如果裘做的是它们，将爆赚

2008年国庆节后，伴随着雷曼兄弟的倒闭，美国次债危机加剧，在全球引发了广泛的金融危机，期货普遍暴跌，其中橡胶是跌幅最大的品种之一，国庆节后，出现了6个跌停，从节前的20000最低跌到9000附近，跌幅达到55%，相对高点28000跌幅达到近70%。即便多头想逼仓，也扛不住半年的大幅下跌，逼仓要求时间短、跌幅有限的要求。

如果裘德道做的不是09合约，做的是01和05合约，这么大的跌幅，他能够翻十倍以上，能赚几十个亿，甚至上百亿。

四、9月亏5亿后，急于回本，10月做多PTA，遭遇毁灭打击

1、PTA暴跌中，做多PTA，想急于回本

2008年7月份，国际次债危机爆发，PTA一路暴跌，特别是国庆节期间，雷曼兄弟破产，国庆节后PTA连续暴跌，相对高点，下跌了36%。

裘德道在9月份亏5个亿后，急于回本，此时将目光对着已经暴跌的PTA，联合了当时PTA现货行业的巨头“华联三鑫”一起做多，利用它的现货背景，想操纵PTA的期货。他们在10月中旬一起买多。

2、买入后，PTA便一路暴跌28%，基本上都没反弹，亏了15亿

裘德道买入后，对市场没有掀起任何的涟漪，PTA期货一路暴跌，中间基本上就没反弹，一步跌到底，下跌了28%。

华联三鑫在PTA上被迫接下近15万吨现货，被套资金多达十几亿元，公司破产重组。作为关联企业，裘德道连带损失就超过15亿元，加上刚亏的5个亿，总共亏损超过20亿。

3、PTA这次应该不是空逼多，而是次债危机下的全球暴跌

从国庆节后，一直到11月中旬，国际原油暴跌31%，PTA其他合约都暴跌25%左右。所以PTA01合约不属于被空头逼仓，属于危机下的走势。

五、亏损没有结束，70多亿的担保损失才最致命

国际危机下，许多实体企业倒闭，其中绍兴纵横集团面临资金链断裂，而裘德道给该公司提供了10多亿的巨额预付款，收不回来，并且提供了高达70多亿元的担保，而陷入连带债务危机，最终裘德道的资金链断裂。

2008年11月7日将私人飞机，抵押给了债主。

裘德道于11月27号晚自杀，因抢救及时，才保住性命。

裘德道在重击之下一蹶不振，整个人消瘦了20斤。一个朋友描述：“他一蹶不振，眼睛布满血丝，有想要挽回一切的壮志，但也有着明显的力不从心。”

2009年初他接受采访时曾坦言：“不瞒你们说，多少次，我都想从阳台上跳下去”

2009年8月《人民日报》的一篇报道称，半年时间里损失20多亿元，但是董事长裘德道说：卖了别墅也要留住员工。

裘德道德道患上肝癌，2010年，肝移植手术失败去世。

六、我们学习到的经验教训

1、草根出身，风险意识薄弱，成也高杠杆，败也高杠杆

他是小学三年级毕业，从底层摸爬滚打起来，这些第一代创业者有共同的特点，那就是：胆子大，没有风险意识，更缺乏风险控制，经营粗糙。

2001年中国加入WTO，外贸行业迅速发展，在时代的红利下，他一直依靠高杠杆，企业的债务率高达70%左右，在2003年前后快速暴富。

这种成功让他产生了路径依赖和高杠杆的思维意识，在此后，他的企业依然维持着高杠杆，包括为纵横集团提供70多亿的担保，都属于高杠杆，在2008年首次遭遇经济危机，高杠杆迅速让的企业面临身存危机。所以他实业上，成也杠杆，败也杠杆。

他之所以进入期货领域，也是喜欢上期货里的高杠杆，2007年依靠高杠杆，运气好，在期货里赚了数亿，赚快钱；但是输得更快，2008年运气差，输了20多亿。

2、裘德道本质上抄底摸顶，亏了，仗着现货，不止损

他无论做橡胶，还是做PTA，都是下跌中买多，上涨中入空，本质上就是抄底摸顶。特别对于PTA，全球次债危机爆发，已经蔓延到全球，他还敢逆着宏观经济而买入。亏损了，不止损，一直扛单，如果是空单，则买现货去交割，如果是多单，则等待着接货，不考虑止损的问题。一旦遭遇逆势，行情前行较大，他的亏损也会很大。

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