{"type":"rich","version":"1.0","author_name":"npub1uvtfvcegcn9kds68r8he57emc480vqtx8t22kpsctxgjxae44gvsksaxrt","author_url":"https://nostr.ae/npub1uvtfvcegcn9kds68r8he57emc480vqtx8t22kpsctxgjxae44gvsksaxrt","provider_name":"njump","provider_url":"https://nostr.ae","html":"📅 Original date posted:2014-10-25\n📝 Original message:On 25 October 2014 21:53, Alex Mizrahi \u003calex.mizrahi at gmail.com\u003e wrote:\n\n\u003e\n\u003e We had a halving, and it was a non-event.\n\u003e\u003e Is there some reason to believe next time will be different?\n\u003e\u003e\n\u003e\n\u003e Yes.\n\u003e\n\u003e When the market is rapidly growing, margins can be relatively high because\n\u003e of limited amounts of capital being invested, or introduction of more\n\u003e efficient technologies.\n\u003e\n\u003e However, we should expect market to become more mature with time, and a\n\u003e mature market will result in lower margins.\n\u003e The halving can do much more damage when margins are relatively small.\n\u003e\n\u003e Besides that, there is a difference in ecosystem maturity:\n\u003e\n\u003e 1. Back in 2012, miners weren't so focused on profits, as Bitcoin was\n\u003e highly experimental: some were mining for the hell of it (it was a novelty\n\u003e thing back then), others wanted to secure the network, others did it\n\u003e because it was hard to obtain bitcoins by other means. But now miners are\n\u003e mostly profit-motivated: they buy expensive dedicated mining equipment and\n\u003e want to maximize profits. As you might know, at one point ghash.io\n\u003e reached 50% hashrate, and miners didn't care about it enough to switch to a\n\u003e different pool.\n\u003e\n\u003e 2. Back in 2012, we didn't have multipools. Multipools automatically\n\u003e switches between mining different alt-chains to maximize miners' profits.\n\u003e Miners who use multipools do not care how their hashrate is used as long as\n\u003e they profit off it.\n\u003e Particularly, check https://nicehash.com/ -- you can easily buy hashrate\n\u003e to attack a smaller alt-coin, for example.\n\u003e\n\u003e If the halving will result in a significant hashrate drop (and we did\n\u003e observe hashrate drop in 2012, although it wasn't that big), it might be\n\u003e possible to buy enough hashpower to attack Bitcoin.\n\u003e\n\nThis is a good point, imho.  Miner sophistication has increased drastically\nin 2 years.  Sites like ( http://www.coinwarz.com/ ) can heavily influence\nmining, 1-2 orders of magnitude on significant levels of hashing.\n\nI think this is more prevalent with scrypt than sha256, litecoin is set to\nhalf reward in 9 months, and it will be interesting to observe what happens\nthere.\n\n\n\u003e\n\u003e\n\u003e\n\u003e ------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n\u003e\n\u003e _______________________________________________\n\u003e Bitcoin-development mailing list\n\u003e Bitcoin-development at lists.sourceforge.net\n\u003e https://lists.sourceforge.net/lists/listinfo/bitcoin-development\n\u003e\n\u003e\n-------------- next part --------------\nAn HTML attachment was scrubbed...\nURL: \u003chttp://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/attachments/20141025/9e83bd0e/attachment.html\u003e"}