{"type":"rich","version":"1.0","author_name":"npub17rld56k4365lfphyd8u8kwuejey5xcazdxptserx03wc4jc9g24stx9l2h","author_url":"https://nostr.ae/npub17rld56k4365lfphyd8u8kwuejey5xcazdxptserx03wc4jc9g24stx9l2h","provider_name":"njump","provider_url":"https://nostr.ae","html":"📅 Original date posted:2015-08-02\n📝 Original message:On Thu, Jul 30, 2015 at 12:20:30PM -0400, Gavin Andresen wrote:\n\u003e On Thu, Jul 30, 2015 at 10:25 AM, Pieter Wuille via bitcoin-dev\n\u003e \u003e Some things are not included yet, such as a testnet whose size runs ahead\n\u003e \u003e of the main chain, and the inclusion of Gavin's more accurate sigop\n\u003e \u003e checking after the hard fork.\n\u003e First, THANK YOU for making a concrete proposal!\n\u003e So we'd get to 2MB blocks in the year 2021. I think that is much too\n\u003e conservative, and the most likely effect of being that conservative is that\n\u003e the main blockchain becomes a settlement network, affordable only for\n\u003e large-value transactions.\n\nI haven't seen anyone do the (trivial) maths on this. Have I just\nmissed it? By my count:\n\n - blocks in 25 btc in rewards and about 0.5 btc in fees per block\n - at ~$300 USD per btc, that's ~$7,650 per block\n\n - current hashrate is ~400 PH/s; so ~240,000 PH/block works out\n   to having to spend about 30PH per dollar earnt.\n - for comparison,\n      https://products.butterflylabs.com/cloud-mining-contracts.html\n    quotes $1.99 per GH/s for 12 months, which by my count is\n      60*60*24*365 / 1.99 GH/$ = 15.8 PH per dollar spent\n - hashrate growth has slowed from about x4/quarter to x2/year:\n     sep '13: ~1PH/s\n     dec '13: ~4PH/s\n     mar '14: ~20PH/s\n     jun '14: ~80PH/s\n     sep '14: ~200PH/s\n     aug '15: ~400PH/s\n\n - so, as far as I understand it, miners don't make absurd profits compared\n   to capital investment and running costs\n - presumably, then, miners will stop mining bitcoin if the revenue/block\n   drops significantly at some point\n - less miners means a lower hashrate; a lower hashrate makes\n   50% attacks easier, and that's a bad thing (especially if there's lots\n   of pre-loved ASIC mining hardware available cheap on ebay or alibaba)\n\n - in about a year, the block reward halves, cutting out 12.5 btc or\n   ~$3750 USD per block. without an increase in fees per block, miners\n   will just get ~$3900 USD per block\n - the last time the reward for mining a block was under $4000 per block\n   was around oct '13, with a hashrate of ~2PH/s\n\n - 13 btc in fees per block compared to .5 btc in fees per block is a\n   25x increase; which could be either an increase in fee/txn or\n   txns/block\n - with ~500 bytes/transaction, that's ~2000 transactions per MB\n - 13 btc in fees ($3900) per block means per transaction fees of\n   about\n     $2 for 1MB blocks\n     $1 for 2MB blocks\n     25c for 8MB blocks\n     10c for 20MB blocks\n   (assuming full blocks, 500 byte txns)\n\n - comparing that to credit card or paypal fees at ~2.5% that's:\n    $2 -\u003e minimum transaction  $80\n    $1 -\u003e minimum transaction  $40\n    25c -\u003e minimum transaction $10\n    10c -\u003e minimum transaction  $4\n\n - those numbers only depend on the USD/BTC exchange rate in so far as\n   the more USD for a BTC, the more likely the block reward will pay\n   for hashrate without transaction fees, even with the reward reduced\n   to 12.5 btc/block. otherwise it's just USD/txn paying for USD/hashrate\n\n - the reference implementation fee of 0.1mBTC/kB equates to about\n   3c per transaction (since it rounds up). Even 10c/transaction is more\n   than a 3x increase on that.\n\nWhat the above says to me is that even assuming everyone starts paying\nfees, the lightning network works great, and so do sidechains and whatever\nelse, you /still/ want to up the volume of bitcoin txns by something like\nan order of magnitude above what's currently allowed within a year or so.\n\nCheers,\naj"}