{"type":"rich","version":"1.0","author_name":"npub10tqt6wdc2neye0cxwyphtre6n5uccgur94khtqjdry9wxhrvywlq6w9uu9","author_url":"https://nostr.ae/npub10tqt6wdc2neye0cxwyphtre6n5uccgur94khtqjdry9wxhrvywlq6w9uu9","provider_name":"njump","provider_url":"https://nostr.ae","html":"📅 Original date posted:2016-03-09\n📝 Original message:My recent conversations with miners revealed:\n\n* Many have made \"extra-large\" hardware investments recently.\n* Some wonder if we have just reached (or are quickly reaching) a\nplateau of hardware-efficiency. This would mean that\nhardware-investments might not be made in the critical period\nimmediately preceding the halving.\n\nHowever, some good news:\n\n* For Chinese miners, power is often purchased in fixed quantities, for\nlong-durations (of around 12 months, and these contracts -fortunately-\ndo overlap the July halving). Because power is difficult to store, this\nimplies that miners will *need* to mine, at all times, even at a loss.\nSo miners may continue to mine after the halving, no matter what.\n\nOn the other hand, miners can default on these contracts by simply\ndeclaring bankruptcy, at which point their equipment would be entirely\nunusable, by anyone, for a very long time.\n\nSo the problem is less likely, but more potentially-catastrophic.\n\nPaul\n\nOn 3/2/2016 8:06 PM, Paul Sztorc wrote:\n\u003e\n\u003e On 3/2/2016 12:53 PM, Gregory Maxwell via bitcoin-dev wrote:\n\u003e\u003e What you are proposing makes sense only if it was believed that a very\n\u003e\u003e large difficulty drop would be very likely.\n\u003e\u003e\n\u003e\u003e This appears to be almost certainly untrue-- consider-- look how long\n\u003e\u003e ago since hashrate was 50% of what it is now, or 25% of what it is\n\u003e\u003e now-- this is strong evidence that supermajority of the hashrate is\n\u003e\u003e equipment with state of the art power efficiency.\n\u003e I don't understand the relevance of this.\n\u003e\n\u003e In my view, we would prefer miners to invest in hardware just a mere\n\u003e 2016 blocks away from the halving. Instead, they've made them too soon.\n\u003e Assuming that miners are already located in low-power-cost areas, the\n\u003e difficulty will be quickly rising to compensate for \"state of the art\n\u003e power efficiency\".\n\u003e\n\u003e So it will have canceled out by July.\n\u003e\n\u003e If anything, the more efficient miners become today, the bigger our\n\u003e potential problem in July, because chip-manufacturers may have used up\n\u003e all of the easy efficiency-increasing moves, such that investments do\n\u003e not take place in June.\n\u003e\n\u003e Paul"}