<oembed><type>rich</type><version>1.0</version><author_name>npub1l899vmy2zhg9zr96jvnxt85ayddd26qu36m02k22759e9djqldnqrhm88x</author_name><author_url>https://nostr.ae/npub1l899vmy2zhg9zr96jvnxt85ayddd26qu36m02k22759e9djqldnqrhm88x</author_url><provider_name>njump</provider_name><provider_url>https://nostr.ae</provider_url><html>📅 Original date posted:2015-05-07&#xA;📝 Original message:I&#39;m mainly just an observer on this. I mostly agree with Pieter. Also, I&#xA;think the main reason why people like Gavin and Mike Hearn are trying to&#xA;rush this through is because they have some kind of &#34;apps&#34; that depend on&#xA;zero conf instant transactions, so this would of course require more&#xA;traffic on the blockchain. I think people like Gavin or Mike should state&#xA;clearly what kind of (rigorous) system for instant transactions is&#xA;satisfactory for use in their applications. Be it lightning or something&#xA;similar, what is good enough? And no zero conf is not a real secure system.&#xA;Then once we know what is good enough for them (and everyone else), we can&#xA;implement it as a soft fork into the protocol, and it&#39;s a win win situation&#xA;for both sides (we can also benefit from all the new users people like Mike&#xA;are trying bring in).&#xA;&#xA;On Thu, May 7, 2015 at 10:52 AM, Jorge Timón &lt;jtimon at jtimon.cc&gt; wrote:&#xA;&#xA;&gt; On Thu, May 7, 2015 at 11:25 AM, Mike Hearn &lt;mike at plan99.net&gt; wrote:&#xA;&gt; &gt; I observed to Wladimir and Gavin in private that this timeline meant a&#xA;&gt; change to the block size was unlikely to get into 0.11, leaving only 0.12,&#xA;&gt; which would give everyone only a few months to upgrade in order to fork the&#xA;&gt; chain by the end of the winter growth season. That seemed tight.&#xA;&gt;&#xA;&gt; Can you please elaborate on what terrible things will happen if we&#xA;&gt; don&#39;t increase the block size by winter this year?&#xA;&gt; I assume that you are expecting full blocks by then, have you used any&#xA;&gt; statistical technique to come up with that date or is it just your&#xA;&gt; guess?&#xA;&gt; Because I love wild guesses and mine is that full 1 MB blocks will not&#xA;&gt; happen until June 2017.&#xA;&gt;&#xA;&gt; &gt; What we need to see right now is leadership and a plan, that fits in the&#xA;&gt; &gt; available time window.&#xA;&gt; &gt;&#xA;&gt; &gt;&gt;&#xA;&gt; &gt;&gt; Certainly a consensus in this kind of technical community should be a&#xA;&gt; &gt;&gt; basic requirement for any serious commitment to blocksize increase.&#xA;&gt; &gt;&#xA;&gt; &gt;&#xA;&gt; &gt; I&#39;m afraid I have come to disagree. I no longer believe this community&#xA;&gt; can&#xA;&gt; &gt; reach consensus on anything protocol related. Some of these arguments&#xA;&gt; have&#xA;&gt; &gt; dragged on for years. Consensus isn&#39;t even well defined - consensus of&#xA;&gt; who?&#xA;&gt; &gt; Anyone who shows up? And what happens when, inevitably, no consensus is&#xA;&gt; &gt; reached? Stasis forever?&#xA;&gt;&#xA;&gt; We&#39;ve successfully reached consensus for several softfork proposals&#xA;&gt; already.&#xA;&gt; I agree with others that hardfork need to be uncontroversial and there&#xA;&gt; should be consensus about them.&#xA;&gt; If you have other ideas for the criteria for hardfork deployment all I&#39;m&#xA;&gt; ears.&#xA;&gt; I just hope that by  &#34;What we need to see right now is leadership&#34; you&#xA;&gt; don&#39;t mean something like &#34;when Gaving and Mike agree it&#39;s enough to&#xA;&gt; deploy a hardfork&#34; when you go from vague to concrete.&#xA;&gt;&#xA;&gt;&#xA;&gt; &gt;&gt; Long-term incentive compatibility requires that there be some fee&#xA;&gt; &gt;&gt; pressure, and that blocks be relatively consistently full or very nearly&#xA;&gt; &gt;&gt; full.&#xA;&gt; &gt;&#xA;&gt; &gt;&#xA;&gt; &gt; I disagree. When the money supply eventually dwindles I doubt it will be&#xA;&gt; fee&#xA;&gt; &gt; pressure that funds mining, but as that&#39;s a long time in the future, it&#39;s&#xA;&gt; &gt; very hard to predict what might happen.&#xA;&gt;&#xA;&gt; Oh, so your answer to &#34;bitcoin will eventually need to live on fees&#xA;&gt; and we would like to know more about how it will look like then&#34; it&#39;s&#xA;&gt; &#34;no bitcoin long term it&#39;s broken long term but that&#39;s far away in the&#xA;&gt; future so let&#39;s just worry about the present&#34;.&#xA;&gt; I agree that it&#39;s hard to predict that future, but having some&#xA;&gt; competition for block space would actually help us get more data on a&#xA;&gt; similar situation to be able to predict that future better.&#xA;&gt; What you want to avoid at all cost (the block size actually being&#xA;&gt; used), I see as the best opportunity we have to look into the future.&#xA;&gt;&#xA;&gt; &gt;&gt; What we see today are&#xA;&gt; &gt;&gt; transactions enjoying next-block confirmations with nearly zero pressure&#xA;&gt; &gt;&gt; to include any fee at all (though many do because it makes wallet code&#xA;&gt; &gt;&gt; simpler).&#xA;&gt; &gt;&#xA;&gt; &gt;&#xA;&gt; &gt; Many do because free transactions are broken - the relay limiter means&#xA;&gt; &gt; whether a free transaction actually makes it across the network or not is&#xA;&gt; &gt; basically pot luck and there&#39;s no way for a wallet to know, short of&#xA;&gt; either&#xA;&gt; &gt; trying it or actually receiving every single transaction and repeating&#xA;&gt; the&#xA;&gt; &gt; calculations. If free transactions weren&#39;t broken for all non-full nodes&#xA;&gt; &gt; they&#39;d probably be used a lot more.&#xA;&gt;&#xA;&gt; Free transactions are a gift from miners that run an altruistic policy.&#xA;&gt; That&#39;s great but we shouldn&#39;t rely on them for the future. They will&#xA;&gt; likely disappear at some point and that&#39;s ok.&#xA;&gt; In any case, he&#39;s not complaining about the lack of free transactions,&#xA;&gt; more like the opposite.&#xA;&gt; He is saying that&#39;s very easy to get free transactions in the next&#xA;&gt; block and blocks aren&#39;t full so there&#39;s no incentive to include fees&#xA;&gt; to compete for the space.&#xA;&gt; We can talk a lot about &#34;a fee market&#34; and build a theoretically&#xA;&gt; perfect fee estimator but we won&#39;t actually have a fee market until&#xA;&gt; there&#39;s some competition for space.&#xA;&gt; Nobody will pay for space that&#39;s abundant just like people don&#39;t pay&#xA;&gt; for the air they breath.&#xA;&gt;&#xA;&gt; &gt; What I don&#39;t see from you yet is a specific and credible plan that fits&#xA;&gt; &gt; within the next 12 months and which allows Bitcoin to keep growing. Not&#xA;&gt; some&#xA;&gt; &gt; vague handwave like &#34;let&#39;s all use the Lightning network&#34; (which does not&#xA;&gt; &gt; exist), or &#34;let&#39;s do more research&#34; (Gavin has done plenty of research),&#xA;&gt; or&#xA;&gt; &gt; &#34;but what about the risks&#34; (Bitcoin is full of risks). A plan, with dates&#xA;&gt; &gt; attached, and a strong chance of actually being deployed in time.&#xA;&gt;&#xA;&gt; Ok, this is my plan: we wait 12 months, hope that your estimations are&#xA;&gt; correct (in case that my guess was better than yours, we keep waiting&#xA;&gt; until June 2017) and start having full blocks and people having to&#xA;&gt; wait 2 blocks for their transactions to be confirmed some times.&#xA;&gt; That would be the beginning of a true &#34;fee market&#34;, something that&#xA;&gt; Gavin used to say was his #1 priority not so long ago (which seems&#xA;&gt; contradictory with his current efforts to avoid that from happening).&#xA;&gt; Having a true fee market seems clearly an advantage.&#xA;&gt; What are supposedly disastrous negative parts of this plan that make&#xA;&gt; an alternative plan (ie: increasing the block size) so necessary and&#xA;&gt; obvious.&#xA;&gt; I think the advocates of the size increase are failing to explain the&#xA;&gt; disadvantages of maintaining the current size. It feels like the&#xA;&gt; explanation are missing because it should be somehow obvious how the&#xA;&gt; sky will burn if we don&#39;t increase the block size soon.&#xA;&gt; But, well, it is not obvious to me, so please elaborate on why having&#xA;&gt; a fee market (instead of just an price estimator for a market that&#xA;&gt; doesn&#39;t even really exist) would be a disaster.&#xA;&gt;&#xA;&gt;&#xA;&gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------------&#xA;&gt; One dashboard for servers and applications across Physical-Virtual-Cloud&#xA;&gt; Widest out-of-the-box monitoring support with 50+ applications&#xA;&gt; Performance metrics, stats and reports that give you Actionable Insights&#xA;&gt; Deep dive visibility with transaction tracing using APM Insight.&#xA;&gt; http://ad.doubleclick.net/ddm/clk/290420510;117567292;y&#xA;&gt; _______________________________________________&#xA;&gt; Bitcoin-development mailing list&#xA;&gt; Bitcoin-development at lists.sourceforge.net&#xA;&gt; https://lists.sourceforge.net/lists/listinfo/bitcoin-development&#xA;&gt;&#xA;&#xA;&#xA;&#xA;-- &#xA;PGP: B6AC 822C 451D 6304 6A28  49E9 7DB7 011C D53B 5647&#xA;-------------- next part --------------&#xA;An HTML attachment was scrubbed...&#xA;URL: &lt;http://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/attachments/20150507/1bc393f5/attachment.html&gt;</html></oembed>