The defining moment of the bubble breaking would be the collapse or sale of one of the large US #AI houses. I’m watching both #OpenAI and #Anthropic for signs of trouble. OpenAI has way too many monetary commitments that depend on them increasing revenue manyfold, which is never going to happen with customer budgets trending the way they do; and Anthropic is now forced to hike up token rates eight- or tenfold in short order, which will surely cause the majority of corporate subscribers to vastly reduce their AI deployments, and reverting once again to investing in people. Either of these companies stumbling will cause the market to take a critical look at all the data center and silicon contracts that are in place and ask whether any of it will ever be fully executed. And once *that* happens, the dominos will fall.
I think this happens soon. I’m getting my popcorn. This is gonna be good.
