BAU = #BusinessAsUsual
BAU2 = Double The Resources that we estimate are available -- Business As Usual carries on for a while longer.
CT = Comprehensive Technology [assumes BAU2].
SW = Stabilized World. [CT + BAU2].
Herrington:
"The BAU scenario was based solely on historic averages without any assumptions. As mentioned, this 'business as usual' scenario ends in collapse.
[...]
"BAU2 assumes double the resources as in BAU. More abundant resources do not avoid a collapse; its cause merely changes from a resource scarcity crisis to a pollution one. With the resource constraint relaxed, incentives to innovate and/or change societal priorities are reduced, so business as usual goes on for longer. This creates so much pollution that agricultural output and human health plummet after some breakpoint. BAU2 essentially tells the story of #ecosystem breakdown from accumulated# pollution, including from greenhouse gasses (i.e., #ClimateChange)."
Both SW and CT involve the use of #Technology (#SolarPunk?), though SW is focused on sustainability.
Herrington: "We’re probably not on a path to a stable world [SW]. An update of this comparison in another few years might be able to identify one specific closest fit to empirical data. Without major changes in societal priorities, this is unlikely to be the scenario showing a sustainable path; the SW scenario, in which a decline in human welfare within this century is minimized, aligned with the data the least.
[...]
"CT represents the technologist’s belief in humanity’s ability to innovate out of environmental constraints. It assumes unprecedented technological innovation in a world that otherwise does not change its priorities much. The new technologies do in fact help avoid an outright collapse. However, CT still depicts some declines because the technology costs become so high that not enough resources are left for agricultural production and health and education services."
https://www.clubofrome.org/blog-post/herrington-world-model/?fbclid=IwAR34J-QE4mDCelAawQtHAP24B7IPDLFB_lmT_qLu-5_SKgy9fpWI15-FcY0
#SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Sustainability #Capitalism #CorporateColonialism #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis
#EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange
