You may not be interested in Bitcoin, but Bitcoin is interested in you.
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2026-02-15T18:48:35Z Event JSON
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Last Notes npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Thanks to @nprofile…xzud for putting out an abridged version of my article on the BBC’s Moneybox “Understanding Crypto” episode, which can be seen here https://bitcoinpolicyuk.substack.com/p/the-bbcs-moneybox-understanding-crypto Original (much longer, with transcripts from the episode) can be seen at bitcoinactuary.co.uk npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG I’ve now established a website with all my articles from the last few years - bitcoinactuary.co.uk It’s not much, but it’s honest work.. And new article just published - the BBC and Bitcoin. #bbc #moneybox npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Absolutely, well said. One additional reason housing is so expensive in the UK is not particularly a shortage of housing. It’s because housing is actively being used as a form of money, as the designated money itself is no good at storing value. Everyone knows this and acts upon it even if they don’t really know why. How many boomers do you know still living in houses far too big for them? Stamp duty is also a huge deterrent to move for some. Fix the money, fix housing. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG This is all spot on; I’d just add that companies are not necessarily the distinct problem here - there are plenty that stack bitcoin with zero leverage. Plenty of individuals get over their skis with leverage also, trying to accelerate their stack. And max pain is often the result and they get sniffed out. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Important to note when Saifedean said this he was talking about on chain Bitcoin. Don’t think it shows him to be a store of value maxi. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG A new article of mine published in Bitcoin magazine - the return of the Tontine! Could be a very interesting development in the pensions space and a logical option for bitcoiners in retirement also. https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/the-return-of-the-tontine-a-natural-retirement-option-for-bitcoiners #tontines #pensions npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Is your issue with $NAKA, or the entire concept in general? Can’t deny the above always felt scammy and laced with insiders with such a huge PIPE proportion. But then, if you run a business, is it a good idea to hold Bitcoin on the balance sheet? Corporations will always exist - a hyperbitcoinised world will just place the bar for investing in companies that much higher than in the Fiat world now. Yes, there will be scams. But the well run will serve to put the rest of the corporate world on notice. Wrote a piece for the Bitcoin collective on this area last week - would love to hear your thoughts https://bitcoincollective.co/bitcoin-treasury-companies-ponzi-or-adoption/ npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Yeah, I think long term most of these companies will fall by the wayside and won’t attract investment unless they provide real value in the world. For the time being though, as we are early even just offering exposure to btc in wider markets than previously available is being treated as valuable. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Agreed on 1,2, and 4 especially - a complete red herring if countries are running deficits - it’s far more instructive to make Bitcoin ownership as easy as possible for every individual who is not running a deficit themselves. On Bitcoin Treasury Companies though - I think it pays to think long term. Corporations and potential investment in them will always exist. It’s only natural that investments in these companies pop up as an option (essentially priced in Bitcoin) relative to just saving in Bitcoin. You may end up with more or less Bitcoin than you invest - like any investment - buyer beware of course. But it’s a pretty natural state of things that these will pop up and try and acquire Bitcoin - especially when tapping into other capital pools (fixed income etc) that can’t otherwise access it, as Saylor is doing. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Absolutely. It’s been a text book of how to build up a Bitcoin treasury company - honesty, integrity, transparency, and by the look of it a tonne of hard work. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Yes I’d generally agree - I think one point around this being - at what point of MNAV compression would you stop using the ATM like facility? Of course it’s a balancing act but I sort of have the view that you increase the stack almost no matter what at this stage. 10k btc has to be the next target. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Thoughts on SWC Bitcoin based convertible debt as announced this week in the UK.. This is a loan of $21m worth of Bitcoin, so let’s say around 180 btc and increases their stack around 8-9%. It’s at zero interest in Bitcoin terms. The conversion sits at 5% above the equity price from the lenders point of view, and can be triggered once 50% above from the companies point of view and only after 6 months for this latter option. Basically, the binary way to look at it is as to whether it converts or not - if it does, the company gets an extra atm at around 200p. If not, the loan just gets paid back with minimal loss in Bitcoin terms. Why would the lender convert? If the shares have performed better than btc. Why would the company convert? As long as the effective purchase of bitcoin at the conversion price is accretive to shareholders. Strikes me there are some edge cases where the lender could lose in btc terms but they are marginal - eg equity goes up 55%, but btc goes up by even more - lender ends up with the shares and not the btc? Be interesting to see if there are further of these and on slightly better terms for the company - ie ends up being a more accretive atm if converted. #swc #btc npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG The audacity of $STRC / Stretch, allowing the market to set the interest rate🤯 Somewhere up in the clouds Mises, Hayek and Rothbard have read the prospectus… and they’re smiling. @nprofile…h9ay npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Ha ha yes I noticed this earlier. They will go to great lengths to confuse Bitcoin and Crypto as terms; it’s 100% deliberate. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG My mistake😆. Clearly she is onto something.. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG 295 billion teeth 🦷 in the world (approx) Only 21 million Bitcoin. Gotta love the FT🙄 cc @npub1lr2…dl6a npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Agreed. It’s akin to people saying “never sell your bitcoin” without considering that if you’re on a bitcoin standard, there will be inevitable times in life when you’ll have to spend more than you acquire anyway. However, in the yield argument they are ignoring the opportunity cost of owning more btc (or mstr, if that way inclined) in the first place. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Lots of fairly inane chat about #msty at the moment. Just bear in mind what the underlying is, and that in general terms, at varying times in the market buyers of calls can profit, sometimes sellers of calls, but unlikely both at the same time. My conclusion is that MSTY holders are likely to end up underperforming #MSTR, and are likely thinking in $ fiat terms. Just like a trader who buys Bitcoin at 10k, sells at 20k, buys at 30k, sells at 50k, buys at 60k sells at 80k, and probably thinks they are some sort of genius. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG #bitcoin https://m.primal.net/QEQe.jpg npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG 💯 npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Massively degen, yes! But not obviously a scam? As in, he can explain where the yield comes from and at least there’s no native token?! npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Fantastic work Susie, and spot on. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Found you ;) npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG It’s almost like the past isn’t necessarily a decent guide to the future 🤔 So called “cycles” ending would be a great outcome for Bitcoin generally. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG 🤣 Firstly, I really do want some of what you’re smoking! I’m very bullish MSTR, don’t get me wrong. Two big misconceptions here in my opinion. One is they will specifically try and game inclusion into S&P. Absolutely not. Second is how much mstr move the market. Grossly overestimated I reckon. Sure, if they didn’t exist would Bitcoin be at a lower price? Probably. But all the shareholders would likely have found different ways to Bitcoin exposure rather than MSTR. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Why should the share price have this perpetual gravity towards 1? Shares broadly trade at the value of their balance sheet, plus net present value of future profits. Why assume they can’t continue to make the future profits that they have been showing in their Bitcoin yield metrics? I’ve argued before - you can put the case for mstr to be less than nav 1 (if you think they may go bust) or indeed greater - but 1 is never going to be the answer as to how to value them. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG I know what you’re saying. I see nostr as like a real life conversation, online. In a real life conversation you never get to take it back. You can clarify, augment, apologise.. but you can’t delete what you say. Obviously nostr is potentially one to many so quite a different dynamic. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG As #MSTR announced the first #$STRK preference share at the market offering today, some thoughts on how this might play out in the coming months. Firstly, $11m is extremely small as a way to start. It would take around 1,900 weeks at this level to exhaust the $21bn! But what I suspect will happen is they will continuously ramp this up in the wake of bitcoin price appreciation in the months to come. Let's consider how they might do this. The current price of STRK is $88.45, so MSTR are offering about a 9% yield in selling into the market at current levels. That price is made up of two components, essentially, the value of the perpetual fixed dividend payment of $8, and the value of potential future conversion to equity at 1/10th of the number of STRK shares held. Bear in mind if bitcoin price rises, the value of that potential conversion to equity will also rise (eventually, if MSTR traded well above $1,000, STRK might end up trading more like MSTR stock since the $8 dividend would prove so small by comparison). Just like when selling MSTR shares into the market, there is no free lunch - by selling more STRK ATM, it will depress the STRK price, and all else equal require them to pay a higher yield to the market the more they sell. Selling at $100 is clearly better for MSTR than selling at $88. What they could do though, is decide that at any level of STRK price above X, say, they will relentlessly issue the ATM in to the market. Let's say this price is $100 (which leads to the originally 8% dividend). As the MSTR share price rises, the increasing value of the equity conversion, and perhaps the increasing security coverage on the dividend payments may help them to sell more and more STRK into the market at this level. @nprofile…4knj @nprofile…7jq0 npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Yes it’s a good question, but probably not to be honest. Lots of people predicted the same would happen to MSTR when the US ETFs came along, which turned out to be seriously wrong, so my guess is everyone tends to overthink these impacts. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Yep, I’m in the UK also! Albeit for me what started out as a BTC proxy has developed out as something quite different. He’s tapping into insatiable demand for return from the capital markets, and making positive BTC yield per share in doing so. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG MSTR introduces counterparty risk - the Coinbase custody risk is worth a mention. So I would definitely mention that. Albeit custody has a cost regardless of who you are - even if it’s yourself - so arguably they may have an efficient model. Of all the negatives I think regulation / tax is one of the largest - change can happen fast in future. @nprofile…nc5g klippsten’s race to avoid the war article is still valid npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Oddly, one of the biggest drivers of NAV closer to 1 could be a sustained rapid rise in BTC, say to $1m - which might hugely constrain their ability to generate as much btc yield relative to the btc they hold. However in that case, shareholders would probably still sleep at night! npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG For all the #MSTR 1x MNav people out there. I’m confused.. you want to value MSTR solely based on the bitcoin they hold, but that in itself has gone from 252,220 to 499,096 since the US election in November. So which figure do you want to use again?! npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG If he did, the zero discernible impact $2bn+ buying has on the bitcoin price is remarkable! npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Yeah I think that’s it - there are ways of securing your nsec and not exposing it etc, but once it’s out in the open that npub might as well be considered like any other imitation account of you. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Beginners question admittedly, but isn’t the point that on Nostr if someone got hold of your nsec you’d just start again with a new nsec? And you’d achieve this via a social layer of trust, showing it to people in person who know you etc, and building up your network from there. And this would fairly rapidly overtake and discredit the former one. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG My guess is the motley fool started back in the day with decent intentions, but don’t make enough money from their investing advice subscription services so are pretty much for hire nowadays. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Yes, the “reach” is greater on Twitter. Depends on your incentives in posting anything, I guess. I’d argue talk is cheap, and in this instance by talk I mean posting both on Twitter and Nostr. Using nostr instead of Twitter and not in addition is the only way to really signal your views on which concept you’re really aligned with. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Yes great point. I’ve started to try to get away from my predictable phone addition and it has resulted in going back to more singular devices, which just do what they need to - Alarm clock, torch (to separate from phone at night) Notebook Kindle probably also a good example especially if can be on airplane mode. I’m sure better e-readers are out there. Was looking at a new TV for the first time in over a decade the other day also and wondering if there’s such things as dumb TVs nowadays npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Good explanation. I don’t have a need for it right now but think it’s a really interesting product for producing a guaranteed income - if backing an annuity it would allow for a much higher annual income than you’d get on the market. Within that you have to weigh up the credit risk but it’s insanely covered by the bitcoin they own at present. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Next few weeks could be wild npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Yes all those “leverage shenanigans”… all so opaque. I wish someone would make a website to keep up with them all. Oh wait! strategy.com npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG A thought on a different lens about #MSTR new preference share offering $STRK, which at the moment yields about 9% p.a in perpetuity. As #Saylor has said, this offers a lower risk product out to the market with a more limited upside and downside than MSTR equity. In the earnings call Saylor pointed out that their current Bitcoin holdings could pay for around 750 years worth of #STRK dividends at current prices, and even 100 years worth if BTC declined by 75%. There are still tail events where the ability to make these payments comes under doubt. The question is, at what point will TradFi investors with no particular positive sentiment on Bitcoin sit up and take notice of this 9% yield? Possibly, at the time when they can hedge out these tail events and still obtain a decent spread over US treasuries. Could it effectively be done now? Would love to hear thoughts on this. Currently, a 2 year put on MSTR with a strike price at $10 can be bought at 0.66, suggesting a max return of about 14x on the premium. IBIT is an alternative - a 2 year put on #IBIT (current price around 55) with a strike of 15 (i.e. a drawdown of 70%) is priced at 0.74, which is a max return of 19x. I'm not sure those offer decent enough protection for someone who wants to use puts to insure against absolute loss of capital on the preference shares, since the premium would have to come out of the annual return and still look compelling for someone looking for an annuity type investment outperforming treasuries at little risk. Final thought - the upside equity conversion also has value and selling covered calls against that could pay to hedge some of the downside risk in dollar terms. cc @nprofile…mwnq @nprofile…5gu2 @nprofile…t0d8 @nprofile…qztu would love to hear any thoughts and please do spread this question further on Nostr? #asknostr PS my point is not that I'd do this personally, but if it starts adding up for someone in Tradfi with zero positive view on Bitcoin this would be a sign of inversion of the current financial world and Saylor may be able to issue a huge amount of these.. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG I know what you mean. You could view STRK as a DCA mechanism into MSTR also. Personally I’m not selling MSTR to buy STRK just as I’m not selling Bitcoin to buy MSTR, they are just separate types of allocations. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Probably just about treading water on dollar debasement.. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Thinking out loud here on the new #MSTR #STRK preference share offering. These preference shares pay a fixed $8 dividend based on every $100 nominal per share. The current market price is $90, meaning for someone who buys now they yield approx 9% per year. They convert to 1/10 of MSTR equity, on the request of the holder only, and not the company. The company has no rights to redeem them unless certain circumstances are met (I think it's something like less than 20% of shares are outstanding). Hence at the moment with MSTR around $325, noone will convert - your $90 market price would only be worth 325/10 = $32.5. This is why you may see the strike price said to be $1,000 - once the share price gets above this then the value of the shares if converted would be $100, so could start to be worth it versus the market value of the STRK preference shares (currently $90). Bear in mind these will move up and down, so it's non trivial. What I've been struggling with though - why would anyone ever convert when you can continue to pocket the $8 per $100 nominal a year, and always have the option to convert to an ever rising share price? The answer I've come down with is two fold. Firstly, you may want to sell the investment, and if the share price keeps rising, conversion to normal shares may maximise the value of your investment on selling. Let's say the share price rises to $2,000 - the equity if converted is then worth $200. With that said, we can't say for sure that's more than the market value of STRK at that point, as the market value of $STRK itself will take into account the value of possible conversion! Markets normally remove artibrage, so it's unlikely you could buy STRK and immediately convert to normal equity and sell for an immediate profit. Or maybe a small incentive would be priced into it, as you're sacrificing optionality? Struggling to get my head around this. The second potential for conversion relates to the fixed dividend. If the share price is at $2,000, and the market value of $STRK is above $200 (as would be logical), you're no longer realising 8% plus on the current value of your investment - you're being paid effectively 4%. So the incentive may exist to convert/sell, and reinvest that money to achieve a higher income stream than the $8. Let's say there was a $STRK2 issued by #strategy at that point, that paid $8 per $100 starting price, and converted to 1 in 40 MSTR shares.. by selling $STRK at $200, and buying this instead you could double your income stream - so there's your incentive. I'm no expert here - would love to hear thoughts on this if anyone has them. If anyone reads this let me know you're out here. NOSTR doesn't generally love Saylor / MSTR, but I'd rather have this conversation on here rather than X. #asknostr cc @nprofile…7jq0 @nprofile…4knj npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Yes, definitely - the moves in Q4 were huge, and we can expect large amounts of converts to be issued pretty soon. The challenge in terms of valuing them is how long they can carry on this sort of pace for. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Some good thoughts. Since MSTR will always be seeking to add to their Bitcoin holdings I like to think of the valuation question in Bitcoin terms. I.e. the market is essentially telling us that the present value of all future bitcoin they can get their hands on can double the current bitcoin they hold (per share, being what matters) Is that valuation bearish? On the basis of the last quarter’s activity alone and how accretive it was, it probably is. However there’s a lot that could slow them down still - we just don’t know whether the market will keep on letting them act accretively for shareholders, and in the longer term (as you mention also) what sort of utility the Bitcoin could have for further earnings to add yet more bitcoin. Having said all that - the dollar angle for valuation is always going to win out for the foreseeable. And if they are going to become as big as the mag 7 are now, and perhaps eat a chunk of their monetary premium, we may see some much higher earnings multiples applied than right now. Who knows? npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG It’s pretty hilarious watching them tie themselves in knots isn’t it. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Never would I dream about tuning into an earnings call in the past 😆. But these are only going to grow in interest and viewers, as he’s made them box office. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG If anyone needs a good book to read, check out Dava Sobel’s Longitude, the story of John Harrison’s lifelong quest to build a timepiece that could operate at sea. Truly inspiring. We stand on the shoulders of giants, and Harrison was one. #bookstr #longitude #harrison https://m.primal.net/ORNA.jpg npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Welcome! Bear in mind nostr works differently to twitter. Replies to people get more engagement than just tweeting out into the void. And a good way to find more people to follow is by checking out who those that you follow, follow in turn. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Yes this combination is possible. If you hold billions with anyone you’d expect some pretty high assurances, wouldn’t you. But I accept this is speculation, and admittedly as an MSTR shareholder I am trusting them to custody it safely. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG I agree with most of this in terms of what happens in the end when you issue paper Bitcoin, but it’s not quite addressing my point. MSTR aren’t retail. They are likely using institutional grade multisig in segregated wallets that they can monitor, surely?! They can see their own Bitcoin and know it’s not being lent or rehypothecated elsewhere. But that doesn’t mean they’re going to reveal those addresses to the wider world, or indeed reveal any element is how they custody. If I was in Saylor’s shoes I’d do the same, and give our as little info on it as possible, unless my shareholders started overwhelmingly demanding it. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG The good news is, nearly everyone who has played the paper Bitcoin game has been eventually found out. If Coinbase are fractionally reserving Bitcoin, they will be too at some stage. However, in this example there’s a huge difference between Coinbase doing this elsewhere, and Coinbase doing it with MSTR funds. Just because Saylor/MSTR don’t publish their public addresses, do you really believe that they don’t/can’t monitor their own addresses behind closed doors? I doubt it. The truth in the MSTR case is likely simpler. Coinbase probably offers the most professional service / lowest risk in terms of institutional custody. Saylor is not stupid, and one day this may change to someone else. I have no time for Coinbase personally, but the ETFs have also cast their vote in this. The reality is simply that the op sec benefits of not revealing wallets outweigh the proof that MSTR provide to the market that they hold the Bitcoin. Agree that shareholders could pressure this if they feel it necessary. Anyone reading this - would love to hear thoughts #mstr #coinbase npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Fantastic note as always @nprofile…7jq0 . Keep going with Nostr content! Starting to get my head around the STRK issuance - this and the Jeff Park mini paper were good for this. As to why anyone would ever sell STRK once the value of 1/10th of the share price is more than the STRK value, I think the only answer is - if as the investor you just want/need to sell at that particular point in time? And if conversion is greater than STRK then conversion is the logical path to realising the greatest value. If you don't need to sell and realise the value of what you own, then you're just going to sit on the option in perpetuity and collect the 8%? Seems really unpredictable therefore how much of STRK will ever be converted, as it's largely down to the time preference of the holders. Final question, in terms of potential ATM issuance of this going forwards, what does the world look like where MSTR trades at $1,500 (say) - is STRK still going to be issued but with the price reflective of the equity conversion having much more value within it than at $350? Or is this a mute point and by that point they have STRK2 issued. #mstr #asknostr #strk @nprofile…4knj npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Today’s market movements make me think of the old #Saylor quote - “Bitcoin is channeling human ingenuity into making it better, and every commodity is channeling human energy into making it worse (as a money)” To explain this. Consider computer chips a form of commodity. In #Nvidia you have a clear sector leader that the market has been treating as a form of money. Long term though, all the huge Nvidia valuation says to the rest of the world is - come and innovate and compete for our huge valuation, and have at it. That ingenuity will make Nvidia worse as a form of money. The signs may already be here. #bitcoin #money npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG I get this all the time.. My way of expressing it to them - “You’re not going to move the market … I’m trying to get you on the f*cking lifeboat!” npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Just to chip in here - I can imagine a new plan being announced in the Q3 earnings call a year later than the last one. They seem to like establishing a regular cadence with this stuff and it would make sense for teeing up a plan for the next year, if they have finished by that point. Seems fairly clear they need Bitcoin price to run to get to the 21bn on the debt side. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Interesting isn’t it. I wonder if the issue from the market is that Semler have much less runway vs their average entry price for Bitcoin - ie it would be easier for them to go over their skis in a bear? npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG It’s massively paying off. Comparing stuff to MSTR all time high is a bit like viewing Bitcoins progress relative to its ATH price - normally misses the bigger picture npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG With the 2027 notes redeemed there could be room for even more than $5bn convertible debt. I’ve seen $9bn mentioned. Going to be wild.. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Career wise, I always think just focus on improving your skillset / breadth of experience / network etc. worry about the money later - if you get the above stuff right it will come soon enough, as your market worth will have gone up. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG But it’s quite a different message to the previous types “I think we need another dot .. etc” My guess is - non trading day, possibly a nod to the inauguration. Any MSTR announcement would probably come pre market Tuesday? npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Just seen Saylor’s tweet - “things will be different tomorrow” - what do you make of that? npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG This might be old news to many on here, but I've just stumbled upon what looks like the history of the "Vaccines contain microchips" theory. Perhaps naively, I'd always assumed that this was just some fringe crackpot group on the internet that came up with this, and thought no further about it. https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2020/08/15/debunked-bill-gates-conspiracy-gets-a-boost-from-rfk-jr-marla-maples/ However in this article the journalist links to RFK and an instagram post - 'This week he [RFK] posted to his Instagram account a photo of Gates with the wild words “The digitalized economy? We get rid of cash and coins. We give you a chip. We put all your money in your chip. If you refuse a vaccine, we turn off the chip and you starve!”' The article then jumps - "The conspiracy theory that Gates plans to install tracking devices into humans with the coronavirus vaccine his foundation is aiding has been debunked by experts but has still continued to gain traction in some circles since the onset of the pandemic." Therefore the journalist has baselessly linked RFK comments around digital identity / cash [essentially CBDC type commentary around control, linked to the idea of being essentially coerced via financial control to take a vaccine; surely this could never happen...] with it being a theory that vaccines were in and of themselves some form of tracking device. Hence, is that where the entire vaccines contain microchips conspiracy came from? Was it directly from this RFK quote being [deliberately] misinterpreted by multiple media sources? #asknostr #rfk #vaccines npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG It’s a decent read, similar but different to the mandibles in my opinion, but I have failed to recommend it to any friends, mainly on account of it being very very depressing 😕 npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Thanks Frank - these are good questions. I am an interested stakeholder as a MSTR shareholder. Based in the UK, I like many over here have no other Bitcoin related proxies to match MSTR within a pension. This fact has pushed me into a higher MSTR exposure than I’d rather have, relative to Bitcoin, and the risks are somewhat higher in many ways. Fully agree with your right to push back on narratives, and of course limit the power of the state. It might be most prudent to assume he was pretty connected and act accordingly. An aside, but one thing that reassures me as a current shareholder is MSTR’s recent Bitcoin principles slide and the transparency of that long term plan. Saylor provides all the right signals in this respect, though of course it doesn’t concern the exact areas under debate here. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Enjoyed your article @npub1dnz…x52h and don’t necessarily disagree with where you are coming from, but I think Saylor is pretty smart. He knows the US is a long way from really having to consider Bitcoin as currency, and hence the conversation is a needless distraction whilst the volatility is still this high and Gresham’s law is in full display. Perhaps he’s a bit disingenuous with some of his framing - but I think we forget how few pro Bitcoin executives of large corporations we ever hear speaking. As a different example have a look at Saylor’s comments on the US election before it happened - there essentially weren’t any. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Hi Chris, you’re probably right - albeit there’s obviously increased risk with buying any calls, the market is especially programmed to find “max pain” so you just have to make sure to be on the right side of that..! Out of interest where do you get exposure to MSTR calls in the UK? npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Yeah for sure, sounds like a good plan. I’ve not seen them but the daily movements on it must be wild! npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG I think B) is the relevant one for me. And it’s their ability to continually tap the capital markets and increase this which is compelling. Of course that also inevitably leads to A), but that’s not an explicit target - I reckon watching the q3 earnings call and the Bitcoin principles slide is highly useful here. Of course the golden question will be - at what level of A) does it all get too bullish and toppy versus simply owning the bitcoin?! npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG I’d say be careful owning MSTU for extended periods of time - the slippage could really hurt after an extended period of choppiness up and down. Matthew Kratter covered this well in a recent video. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Just coming across this now. I think with hindsight there was too much speculation on what MSTR might or might not do around QQQ index weighting. Making a weighting higher is not an easy game to play even if you wanted to and doesn’t adhere directly to the earnings call btc principles. Aside from those 9 concepts I think his rule will always also be - keep it simple. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG @npub1zj4…876g ⬆️ it’s not really a debate at this stage, but be interested to hear your thoughts on this idea - as long as MSTR is a going concern its value vs mNAV can’t logically be deduced as 1 - due to its principles which will lead it to continually trying to acquire more btc if it’s a going concern. Associated question though has to be where does it all end - I’m not sure anyone really has their heads around that but be good to see it discussed more. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Great to see you on nostr Ben, big fan of all the content you are putting out. Certainly agree with the above, and worth reminding people Saylor established his own true north principles in the last earnings call. The slide is worth a revisit for many of these commentators. And on this, the principles will lead him to acquire more Bitcoin via the atm and increase btc per share - two of the principles. Does this invalidate the prioritising of common stockholders by depressing the share price too much? Crucially - no - as that principle referred to long term value creation for shareholders, not short term. Not a word out of place on that slide! npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Ha ha you never know.. would be a delicious irony if they did npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG “Bitcoin is the best asset in the world! Bitcoin is the best asset in the world! Naseem Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, Paul Krugman, Warren Buffett, Stephen Diehl, Bruce Elder, Jamie Dimon - we have beaten them all. We have beaten them all. Jemima Kelly - can you hear me. Jemima Kelly. Your boys took a HELL of a beating. Your boys took a HELL of a beating.” (With apologies to Bjorge Lillelien) #niche #football #commentary #bitcoin npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG 😆 Reminds me of the excellent Kevin Kelly quote “Don’t worry about what people are thinking about you. They are NOT thinking about you.” npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG I guess some people are just obsessed with the history of grayscale and seeing MSTR as a type of bitcoin ETF. Does it matter? Only in the sense that the markets evaluation of it makes an impact as to how much btc MSTR can buy. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Never knew it was him who said this, but appears so yes npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Here's a question - what have a) Craig Wright, and b) the MSTR mNAV value, got in common? Some (unoriginal) thoughts about what MSTR's market value might end up as, relative to the net asset value of their bitcoin. The idea of mNAV (multiple of net asset value) being 1 for MSTR is appealing in one sense to value them. Start valuing them based on the value of the bitcoin on their balance sheet. Immediately though there are strong arguments for mNAV ending up higher or lower than 1. For it to end up lower - if MSTR somehow end up insolvent and being wound up, to ever get there for whatever reason that is, they would have to start having to sell some of the bitcoin they have == less than mNAV 1. For higher - this is easy - at any point in time that MSTR are a going concern, they are not only the value of their balance sheet bitcoin, perhaps adjusted for debt, but then also their ability to add to this number over time, be that through equity or debt issuance, or by allocating profits from the original business intelligence software business. Consider - they will probably not ever stop trying to acquire bitcoin, as long as they can. At the moment, clearly the market sees them as a going concern and that mNAV is far higher than 1. The frightening genius of the proposition is that this entire valuation is reflexive - the more the market thinks that MSTR can generate more Bitcoin to add to the balance sheet, the higher the share price, and in actual reality the more MSTR can issue convertible debt and equity that actually do add more Bitcoin to the balance sheet and add to btc per share. This effect goes second order - even the mNAV now is arguably based upon what does the market expect the range of values for mNAV to be in 10 years time. So back to the beginning - what do MSTR mNAV and Craig Wright have in common? Well, it's said that Satoshi could be anyone, except Craig S Wright, given that he's the only person in the world where a court case has gone to great lengths to prove he's not Satoshi. Similarly, the MSTR mNAV can be any number you care to argue for.. but it can't logically be 1. #mstr #microstrategy #bitcoin npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Yes… my absolute pet hate here also is companies punishing loyalty rather than rewarding it (see introductory offers for the current and opposite theme that we all have to suffer) npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Just occurred to me - the symbolism of Trump and entourage making a visit to the UFC at the weekend - essentially an evolving discovery of fighting in a free market which discovers over time which techniques work and which don’t. When on the same weekend far more people probably watched Jake Paul “boxing” Mike Tyson in some vapid, plastic, sports entertainment money making exercise. @npub1sfh…ymqt does this mean Trump has read the introduction to Bitcoin is Venice 🤯🤣. After carefully weighing it up, I’m saying definitely. #ufc #trump #bitcoinisvenice npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Agreed - happiness is the journey not the destination. You’re a spurs fan, right, we all understand this 😂 npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG “It was a great draw, a wonderful draw. And you know what they said to me? They said no one ever did a league cup quarter final draw as good as that before. Nobody.” npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Latest article is out; posting this only on Nostr so please share on. Reflections on the recent MSTR earnings call. @npub15dq…lm5m at the absolute top of his game. Next few years are going to be wild. https://bitcoincollective.co/%e2%81%a0we-need-to-talk-about-microstrategy/ #microstrategy #mstr #saylor #bitcoin @npub18aj…dmq0 @npub1tc0…gdxh true north reference was fantastic to see npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG MSTR is simply a company seeking to grow their bitcoin in their treasury. They represent an investment in equity - nothing special, except they are early. In future I hope lots of other companies will present a similar proposition - but the opportunity cost of these choices will always be holding the btc. Companies will definitely have to demonstrate a positive risk adjusted proposition for individuals to invest. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Amazing work on this Susie. It may feel like banging your head against a brick wall sometimes, but I think complaints like this do make a difference over time. The journalist in question will have likely had to come back to it and do further work internally to justify and defend their content, alongside others. Whilst the complaint may not be upheld, they may be more careful in their stance next time around. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG It was ever thus. All weapons throughout history are just forms of technology. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Come at the king, you best not miss npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG As he said himself, actions >> words npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG You look like a good looking lad (through the fire and all) - I’m sure you’ll figure it out.. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG It was good while it lasted npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Fine, but add a small surcharge. Covers the cost of your time & the expense of converting it into sats! npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG @npub1qny…95gx - per your latest note. #note1d0l…r86s npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG One of my favourite quotes is that 99% of success in life is just showing up. It’s only just occurred to me that Bitcoin - of course - fits this rule. Every ten minutes or so, Bitcoin shows up. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Hey Louis can’t see the note you’re replying to but guessing around Bitcoin annuities? Personally I think it’s a slight red herring - sometimes centralised parties are inevitable and it’s probably the case they need to be for pooling life expectancy. Insurers have played this role pretty well for both annuities and life insurance for years- I don’t think it’s the main issue out there. npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Thanks - That’s really interesting! It does bring to mind the question of what businesses exist for in the first place npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz 343PG Thanks - those are some helpful thoughts for sure