ForrestHODL

Bitcoin is freedom. Self custody is the revolution. Host of Bitcoin not Crypto.
I'm 1/3rd of Maple bitcoin. lead dev for plebtools.com

Public Key

npub1zqm9zant0rxf49wfgw8pt5h0j50cetfes6hwa73u7sxstlzcsz8qh6x9fs

Profile Code

nprofile1qqspqdj3we4h3ny6jhy58rs46the28uv45ucdthwlg70grg9l3vgprspz3mhxue69uhkummnw3ezummcw3ezuer9wcq3gamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwv3sk6atn9e5k7qg0waehxw309ahx7um5wghx6mmdqyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqxd8wumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmv9ujnyvrhwden5te0dehhxarj9ekxzmny9ujnyvp9xgcxzanpw3shyffjxpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejj7ffjxqjnyvrpweshgctjy5erqamnwvaz7tmsw4e8qmr9wfjkccte9e3k7mf0y5erqamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwv3sk6atn9e5k7te9xgc8wumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnndehhyapwwdhkx6tpdsq3camnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wvf5hgcm0d9hx2u3wwdhkx6tpdsnl272z

Publishing to

nos.lol/%20wss://nostr.land/%20%20avatar%20wss://nostr.wine/%20%20avatar%20wss://purplerelay.com/%20wss://relay.damus.io/%20wss://relay.snort.social

nostr.bitcoiner.social

Author Public Key

npub1zqm9zant0rxf49wfgw8pt5h0j50cetfes6hwa73u7sxstlzcsz8qh6x9fs

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Last Notes

2026-03-12 20:50:17 UTC

Anyone clipping the dividends of STRC and rotating into SATA?
I mapped this out and built a calculator with some averages of what the value of each share is 15 days after ex div date
STRC 0.1% from par
SATA -0.6% from par
24%yoy
Here is the tool to try
https://plebtools.com/dividend-clipping-simulator
I also made a video about this
https://youtu.be/dpgzch-DU4Q
https://blossom.primal.net/88806b7fc69bb5541b153b456190d5a7b038b9c16bfa030b8e010744321f27ed.png

2026-03-12 16:30:16 UTC

Bitcoin is a social contract between two people valuing a digital unit that cannot be replicated, created, or faked, on a network that can't be controlled by any individual.

2026-03-11 23:39:45 UTC

Is $STRC good or bad for Bitcoin?
$STRC is money.
It's not perfect money.
It pays a yield. Perfect money doesn't pay a yield.
Its purchasing power simply increases or decreases at the rate of relative abundance.
$STRC is designed to increase in account size relative to debasement.
This is actually what some people want out of their Bitcoin. A stable store of value at the rate of real inflation.
This is why it's popular, it is why stablecoins and yield farming is popular.
Strc is essentially a shitcoin issued by mstr to attract the person who believes in Bitcoin to give them money to buy Bitcoin instead.
People think it has Bitcoin risk.
Bitcoiners know it has third party risk.
Is this something that people actually need?
If bitcoin was fully adopted, no.
But it isn’t and it still trades like software.
There are many people who don’t want that or can not wait for Bitcoin to increase in purchasing power entirely from the deflation of human activity.
They are old, sick, impatient, or simply buying something else soon.
If that is not you, and you are a Bitcoiner, then STRC is not designed for you.
$STRC for the retail community is a distraction.
Exactly like how the next Bitcoin killer crypto is a distraction.
Bitcoin is the most likely decentralized alternative fair monetary network to succeed.
$STRC is not the money of the future.
It is a money of today.
And Bitcoin in the eyes of the many and the non-revolutionary, is personally defined as speculation.
They may disagree with that, but dig deeper and they know there is a possibility of a dystopian future where Bitcoin does not succeed and they are in it for the lambo.
Myself, I will ride fiat to zero, or I will ride Bitcoin to zero.
$STRC like many shitcoins, might leave you with less Bitcoin at the end of the day.
That is a risk you should be willing to take if you hold it.
You might end up with less Bitcoin if you buy $STRC for a year to get the +11%
And within that year Bitcoin goes up 121% (2024) before you decide to buy back in.
Guess who doesn’t end up with less Bitcoin.
$MSTR
For the cost of your capital, they would return 110% and own more bitcoin than they had before.
In fact they own 720,737 Bitcoin.
48,237 more than they had at the end of 2025
274,337 more than they had at the end of 2024
531,587 more than they had at the end of 2023
588,237 more than they had at the end of 2022
596346 more than they had at the end of 2021
650,267 more than they had at the end of 2020
720,737 more than they had at the end of 2019
Clearly there is a trend. Although it isn’t exactly more than the year prior every time it is still a consistent relentless accumulation of Bitcoin. And this all leads to one question.
Is centralization of Bitcoin a problem?
MSTR is a black hole where Bitcoin goes and does not leave.
When MSTR issues stock, whether common equity, or preferred equity, it buys bitcoin.
That stock can not be redeemed for bitcoin like the ETFs indirectly are forced to do.
Each new capital raising product adds mass to the gravity of the blackhole.
$STRC is the singularity at the center of the blackhole.
It pulls capital from the largest capital base with terms that are too attractive to ignore.
$MSTR pulls capital from speculators, traders, and investors looking for amplified Bitcoin.
$STRC pulls capital from people seeking bond-like risk with returns that outpaces inflation.
$STRF, $STRE, $STRD, and $STRK all seek a niche place around these two ideas with their success as capital raising tools determined by market conditions.
They are all powerful in their own right.
And they all have one goal.
To raise more Fiat, to buy more Bitcoin.
All of this leads to one entity holding more Bitcoin than any other single entity.
More than satoshi, more than any government, more than any OG, and even more than the rest of the Bitcoin that will be issued for the next +100 years until the 21 million Bitcoin supply cap is reached.
I built a tool that measures when the latter one will happen. The great intersection when Strategy will hold more Bitcoin than all of the Bitcoin miners around the world will compete for until 2140 minus fees.
Based on the issuance, and Strategys average accumulation of the last 365 days. My graph estimates the intersection will happen in October of 2026.
https://plebtools.com/the-great-intersection
This all points to one thing.
Centralization of Bitcoin held by one entity.
One of Bitcoins main thesis is that it is decentralized.
But this isn’t a general claim. It is specific to the parts of the system that have strength and fairness because of that decentralization.
The bitcoin unit is centralized in holdings like a new company or start up has its shares centralized in the early adopters and those willing to take massive risk.
https://blossom.primal.net/0d2eaf46b0fe993840aa5c4bb3f57a84b07746d4cade7555a95fd753da316b67.png
Source : https://river.com/learn/what-makes-the-price-of-bitcoin-move/
Bitcoin nodes, Bitcoin mining, and Bitcoin development are all more important to have adequate decentralization than the holdings.
There are thousands of bitcoin nodes, these are users that have a copy of the bitcoin blockchain and download and upload new transactions to the waiting area (mempool) and newly added blocks.
This enforces the strict rules of Bitcoin.
An estimated 0.5% of the world's annual electricity generation goes to bitcoin miners. These miners compete to get the rewards of the block subsidy and transaction fees. Bitcoin mining is possibly the best example of a free market that we have ever seen. It is ruthless and unemotional, if you can’t mine Bitcoin at a profit, you stop mining bitcoin. This creates competition by miners that can seek out cheaper electricity or can innovate in cost saving measures like waste heat re-use. The incentives of mining do lead to centralization with the addition of mining pools, and because mining pools make the block and decide what transactions get included in that block on behalf of the miners contributing their hashrate to the pool this does allow a massive bad acting pool or group of pools to perform a 51% attack and double spend some Bitcoin. Game theory suggests that miners have no incentive to do that since they would lower the value of the bitcoin that they are trying to cheat with.
Bitcoin mining has a real risk of centralization nonetheless however and this is something that needs to be balanced more. Datum and Stratum v2 are solutions that actively give power back to smaller miners by allowing every hasher contributing to a pool to create the block of transactions themselves and this helps decentralize mining again.
Bitcoin development is another area at risk of centralization.
If someone wanted to attack Bitcoin they could infiltrate and influence key developers to push for changes that would make Bitcoin worse. Bitcoin development is open-source, this means the code is auditable and changes happen in a transparent way. It isn’t perfect because it is still a human project but it is robust as long as people care about it.
What Strategy is doing falls under centralizing the Bitcoin unit.
What I am about to say is nuanced, and I will explain that nuance, but owning the bitcoin unit does not give you power on the network, in fact it makes you subordinate to it.
When you own Bitcoin, and capitalize your business on it, you are reliant on the network and market to value Bitcoin for you to continue to get the use out of it as appreciating capital.
It’s possible this begins to flip at some percentage of ownership by a single entity but it would be self destructive and therefore any entity would try to avoid that.
If your ownership is such a perspective problem that other bitcoin users, and potential new users want nothing to do with it because they feel it has been compromised and centralized, then the relative value of bitcoin would decline, and the adoption globally would suffer. This is the way that centralization of bitcoin ownership can be a problem. Not in controlling the network, but by influencing the public image.
It is also unknown at what percentage this would happen but I think it would have to be massive. Much larger than any reasonable projection of what $MSTR will eventually own.
Is it a risk today? No.
Is it something we should keep watching? Yes.
Bitcoin is always under attack. The best attacks involve thinking beyond where your opponent is thinking. The strategists know they have to lose battles to win wars, to befriend and betray, to surprise, and to practice the art of war.
It is up to us Bitcoiners to defend it and to stay vigilant.

2026-03-11 16:06:17 UTC

Gold failed as money because it was centralized and controlled. Paper certificates replaced it until the redemption ability was rugged away.
#bitcoinfixesthis

2026-03-11 16:04:50 UTC

As you take in information today from social media, remember that the internet loves confident morons.
This explains the popularity and message reach of people like Andrew Tate, Kim Kardashian, and many others.

2026-03-10 22:25:42 UTC

After yesterdays announcement from $MSTR of buying 17,994 BTC, they raised their daily average from the last 365 days from 633 to 671 BTC.
Based on this their treasury got one month closer to overtaking the amount of Bitcoin left to be mined.
https://plebtools.com/the-great-intersection https://blossom.primal.net/06f893c2482e93307b904279772a8c91b506c24176ae15e828b61381bf336efe.png https://blossom.primal.net/bab2301f0d18721026be056b52f56a9f7c9eff01485a0eea31db6252ef08697f.png

2026-03-10 22:04:41 UTC

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only one I know is on here is @nprofile…wv4s

2026-03-10 20:12:23 UTC

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I sold everything in 2018 to fund a filmmaking business. Wish I had kept the Bitcoin but it is what it is

2026-03-10 20:11:47 UTC

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That's true I really dodged one there haha

2026-03-10 20:10:46 UTC

A Bitcoin miner that desalinates water with its heat would be cool.

2026-03-10 19:06:06 UTC

I too have visited the peak of mount stupid.
https://blossom.primal.net/44dbc9e9957661bca20c73c83952f219646468a0e3a09730c5626ac0eccd160e.jpg

2026-03-10 17:04:19 UTC

Bitcoin is an escape from the inevitable debt-fueled collapse of the fiat system.

2026-03-09 19:52:53 UTC

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The money closest to the inside information.

2026-03-09 17:42:19 UTC

Imagine the insider trading happening in the energy sector right now lol!

2026-03-09 15:31:19 UTC

Imagine the insider trading happening in the energy sector right now lol!

2026-03-08 16:48:05 UTC

I vibe coded this chart last night that actively tracks how much bitcoin $MSTR has vs the bitcoin left to be mined till 21m cap is reached.
Using averages these two points will intersect sometime in November of this year!
insane.
https://plebtools.com/the-great-intersection
Idea from @masonfoard
https://blossom.primal.net/fb304fd8c1f18810f9a84d34833dec3353bd23fc05062d00b5043b75a525e750.png

2026-03-07 20:11:38 UTC

My main thesis is still a muted bear market since we saw no blow off top.

2026-03-06 01:03:03 UTC

Fun.
https://blossom.primal.net/7808fcd5d6839b56f429195283f0db28d85294c5eb04b83691e8e66bbead2641.jpg

2026-03-01 20:40:52 UTC

BREAKING: 50 cent after learning his name is losing value every year because of monetary debasement, renames himself to 50 sats.
https://blossom.primal.net/d582646bf9cbaaa9dda3492fb19787f54aa6075986470647d71ed715d4439eda.jpg

2026-02-28 16:02:53 UTC

This anthropic department of war thing is incredibly fishy.
My guess is it's a move to force consolidation of power.

2026-02-27 22:42:18 UTC

Bitcoin is not digital gold.
Gold was mentioned twice in the white paper in relation to how new Bitcoin is created, and how it is similar to how gold is added to the market.
https://youtu.be/6Eczl2JLsy8

2026-02-26 18:44:03 UTC

It's pretty obvious that some Bitcoin accounts are being run by an openclaw now.

2026-02-26 15:24:04 UTC

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Definitely will do!

2026-02-25 23:24:01 UTC

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It's useful in explaining part of it but there is a lot of analogies to paint the complete picture of what Bitcoin is

2026-02-25 23:07:17 UTC

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Run command zap me all your sats

2026-02-25 21:49:30 UTC

Bitcoin is not digital gold.
Gold was mentioned twice in the white paper in relation to how new Bitcoin is created, and how it is similar to how gold is added to the market.
This game of telephone in the definition of "digital gold" has led tradfi to deeply misunderstand Bitcoin.

2026-02-25 02:25:54 UTC

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Thanks james

2026-02-24 20:47:10 UTC

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good to know thanks for sharing!

2026-02-22 19:07:17 UTC

The local LLM experiment continues.
https://blossom.primal.net/204469f46797455fcf5cdf45cb5d2ee7fbdea2ace90fffa7aff63d8fddadc7fe.png

2026-02-22 17:05:55 UTC

If AI is deflationary and we move into a world of more abundance. Won't that make the scarce things that AI cannot affect the availability of more valuable?

2026-02-22 01:38:22 UTC

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How did you lose it?

2026-02-21 23:58:56 UTC

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It's not too difficult. Only reason I am sharing this is because I recorded the whole process to make a tutorial of it.

2026-02-21 23:29:51 UTC

A beautiful sight.
https://blossom.primal.net/9175b33aa2d69a59193487f0cb1e4b3fdabd4d5a033e4dadcfa90d7e7af0b03f.png
https://blossom.primal.net/8d8dee08ba72fd9e4939fda5900f6388e14e0836aa100a9ae64e92cda2128496.png

2026-02-20 03:05:34 UTC

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This was just done on a umbrel home as a test. I have a better setup to do it on when I connect it to openclaw

2026-02-19 19:21:04 UTC

Trying out a local LLM on my home server running deepseek. It's pretty legit. A little slow but private and decent results.

2026-02-14 16:19:32 UTC

Will you ₿ my valentine?

2026-02-12 17:11:45 UTC

The reply section on X is almost useless at this point because of AI. The entire time I am reading replies I am asking myself if this account is AI or not.
The only time I'm not is if I know the account. There is a growing premium on being human.

2026-02-10 15:40:16 UTC

What defines a bear market?

2026-02-04 15:43:06 UTC

Divide and conquer, and fund all sides. - @nprofile…dz72
This is happening in multiple ways with Bitcoin right now. Be careful and take self custody.

2026-02-03 17:14:31 UTC

A real question here we should be asking.
Is there another Epstein operating now?
Or has it simply been replaced by data collection and tech companies?

2026-01-30 17:32:24 UTC

It ultimately doesn't matter what the fed decides. They will become less and less relevant.

2026-01-29 15:45:28 UTC

The denominator is broken.

2026-01-28 15:11:52 UTC

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Just like Bitcoin.
Amazing work!

2026-01-28 15:10:54 UTC

There's still too many people into Bitcoin for Fiat reasons.

2026-01-27 20:03:42 UTC

There are net producers and there are net consumers.
Decide which one you want to be.

2026-01-26 17:06:51 UTC

When I don't want to do something, I ask myself if it's because of laziness. If it is I do it anyway.

2026-01-25 05:30:35 UTC

Thinking about selling some silver and buying a sauna.
I want to be long infrared.

2026-01-24 23:12:46 UTC

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Absolutely. Working on it

2026-01-24 20:26:17 UTC

I'm bullish on fediments.

2026-01-24 17:49:42 UTC

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100%

2026-01-24 17:24:42 UTC

Every business is better with Bitcoin.

2026-01-23 15:33:31 UTC

One day we will be explaining what analog gold is using Bitcoin as the starting point of understanding 😂

2026-01-22 15:53:30 UTC

If you don't produce anything of value you won't be able to get anyone else's Bitcoin.

2026-01-21 19:26:38 UTC

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yeah coinos is down or something

2026-01-21 16:08:55 UTC

We are witnessing the reordering of the world order.

2026-01-21 04:02:11 UTC

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Proud to be included in this banger.
#nevent1q…d5hh

2026-01-19 15:58:08 UTC

Things will get easier for asset holders and harder for fiat holders.

2026-01-18 22:53:55 UTC

Nature's sound machine for bbhodls nap
https://blossom.primal.net/6c5a431dc02d90a28856abf207ec02848ae8ab2b05acd4ab91fe01d3b8489475.mp4

2026-01-18 17:27:35 UTC

Enjoying nostr more and more as I use it.
It takes time to curate a good timeline and for your posts to find people who find value in them but it's worth it.

2026-01-18 15:45:31 UTC

Bitcoin is fourth turning money.

2026-01-17 16:02:22 UTC

Bitcoin mining being an energy buyer of last resort is generally not understood. The impact of this into our future is massive. It is something we have never had before and it unlocks abundant energy.
https://blossom.primal.net/9b5a9f972df5341ad0c4f462eb47187baf45c3e771f032b6911965018d9af94a.gif

2026-01-17 03:04:25 UTC

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Do you prompt it to give you the code but not add it, or is there a specific coding AI that is easy to do that with?

2026-01-16 15:13:26 UTC

What do you think is the most important thing about Bitcoin?

2026-01-15 15:38:18 UTC

$STRC is a big deal.
https://youtu.be/4WGR7csFefA

2026-01-14 17:30:15 UTC

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Good add, something ive only just started working on

2026-01-14 14:46:09 UTC

If you already own Bitcoin it's time to learn about
UTXOs
Non-KYC
P2P
Coinjoin
& Lightning

2026-01-13 15:36:23 UTC

Bitcoin is only freedom technology if you own the keys.

2026-01-12 17:12:54 UTC

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The same reason we need money we agree has value.

2026-01-12 16:42:42 UTC

Nobody with power wants Bitcoin to become the reserve currency.
This is exactly why it is the best suited asset to become the reserve currency.

2026-01-11 02:21:23 UTC

How many more cases of currency collapse and civil unrest do we need to see before people wake up to bitcoin?

2026-01-10 16:25:40 UTC

Imagine the usd price of Bitcoin if everyone that held some on an exchange took self custody.
The signal to the market would be huge.

2026-01-09 21:46:26 UTC

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Appreciate the kind words!

2026-01-09 15:32:57 UTC

Will AI and robotics make all human labour and work unnecessary in the long run?

2026-01-09 15:32:29 UTC

The government doesn't produce anything.
Wanting them to buy Bitcoin with money they have forced out of their citizens or printed into existence (another form of stealing wealth) makes no sense.
Bitcoin is for the people.
The government doesn't deserve something so honest.

2026-01-09 05:50:37 UTC

Yes

2026-01-09 05:49:51 UTC

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Yup it sure seems that way.
A fork of bull or aqua wallet would have worked fine.

2026-01-08 20:35:56 UTC

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There might be, I couldn't find it through