Jonathan McDowell

https://bsky.brid.gy/r/https://bsky.app/profile/planet4589.bsky.social

Astrophysicist
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Last Notes

2026-04-08 00:09:25 CEST

Apparently some are not familiar with the story: Croesus of Lydia asked the Oracle what would happen once he attacked Iran. Oracle predicted: "a great civilization will die". Of course it turned out that the one that died was Lydia, not Iran. Seems relevant...
RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:vqtp5dj2o6rqnge56sz2db5a/post/3miw6axuv2s2y
#note1ct7…0apg

2026-04-07 18:12:47 CEST

Anyone else getting strong Croesus-at-the-Oracle-of-Delphi vibes from this statement?
https://shiitake.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:vqtp5dj2o6rqnge56sz2db5a&cid=bafkreigpfg3tssfb7ol5hjcklngcxtggtt55sfl3t6lsqphru2b3pexfom

2026-02-16 18:47:49 CET

158 first-gen Starlinks have now relocated from the 547 km/53 deg shell to the 475 km/53 deg shell. About another 180 are on the way down still.
https://shiitake.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:vqtp5dj2o6rqnge56sz2db5a&cid=bafkreigen65uyya7ckdjallteyxoa45rolthvxbgk6tlikgp3253fpeh64

2025-12-20 04:13:25 CET

LeoLabs says they see hundreds of debris objects from the Starlink failure event
https://shiitake.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:vqtp5dj2o6rqnge56sz2db5a&cid=bafkreidyxlrnilcce3g6xpjzmqip2pbxwjd7kwknfbiybgcz6h3rludkju

2025-12-15 14:22:25 CET

The number of active satellites in orbit has now passed the 14000 mark according to my estimates:
https://shiitake.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:vqtp5dj2o6rqnge56sz2db5a&cid=bafkreibzyrljm4h7ycvckizthyo6qnrtavb37qlzd65n3cgjvc7vfqm67y

2025-09-29 04:11:22 CEST

LAUNCH at 0204 UTC Sep 29 of Starlink Group 11-20 from Vandenberg Space Force Base.

2025-08-08 22:54:38 CEST

Glad the Apollo 13 movie is getting reruns lately.
This scene is even more moving today: right, Tom Hanks playing Jim Lovell; left, cameo appearance by actual Jim Lovell (1928 Mar 25 - 2025 Aug 7).
https://shiitake.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:vqtp5dj2o6rqnge56sz2db5a&cid=bafkreihu4joa6ue2nrh2brwn4albmouwa6t25puwh7liwt63tm3z4ajrbq

2025-05-10 13:23:40 CEST

ESA reports K482SA reentered between 0604 UITC (seen by radar on pass over Europe) and 0732 UTC (not seen by European radars on the next orbit). Roskosmos reports that reentry was at 0624 UTC over the Indian Ocean, but with no details on how they conclude that.

2025-04-11 17:55:04 CEST

Massive (68%) cut to NASA astrophysics proposed in WH budget. If this stands, it's the end of American pre-eminence in space science. [arstechnica.com/space/2025/0...](https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/04/trump-white-house-budget-proposal-eviscerates-science-funding-at-nasa/ )
[Trump White House budget propo...](https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/04/trump-white-house-budget-proposal-eviscerates-science-funding-at-nasa/ )

2025-03-07 01:25:23 CET

via @GeneDoctorB on twitter, debris from Flight 8 seen in the sky over the Bahamas
https://shiitake.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:vqtp5dj2o6rqnge56sz2db5a&cid=bafkreigcve2qqprjwxx4r5me3jrh2wdgsr7mgtdm57kwxl3tj35vfoezxy

2025-02-19 12:45:45 CET

The Falcon 9 second stage from the Starlink 11-4 launch failed to deorbit itself on Feb 2. It reentered over Northern Europe last night, with entry over the Irish Sea at 0343 UTC Feb 19 and the reentry track extending to Poland and Ukraine a couple of minutes later
https://shiitake.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:vqtp5dj2o6rqnge56sz2db5a&cid=bafkreif3x2vol4lxbefdfgjjxhrpkky5a3oun2hzekyunge2tefxl5qhxm

2024-12-27 03:46:13 CET

Jonathan's Space Report No. 840 published at [planet4589.org/jsr.html](https://planet4589.org/jsr.html ) with the past month's space news
[Jonathan's Space Report - Late...](https://planet4589.org/jsr.html )

2024-12-25 20:33:22 CET

Another belated update: Astronauts Cai and Song made a 9h 6m spacewalk (hatch open to close) from the Wentian module on Dec 17, installing further debris shields

2024-12-18 03:26:21 CET

KAIROS flight 2 failed, apparently around the time of the end of stage 1 burn.

2024-12-16 21:51:19 CET

Congratulations to Space Force
on the rapid cataloging of the 10 Chinese internet satellites launched today, in 1097 x 1110 km x 86.5 deg orbits. TLEs also out for the debris object from the Chinese station and for the third Qianfan launch

2024-12-16 15:23:52 CET

LAUNCH at 1000 UTC Dec 16 of Weixing hulianwang digui 01 zu weixing,
Satellite Internet Low Orbit Group 01, ten satellites aboard a Chang Zheng 5B/YZ-2 from Wenchang - the beginning of the Chinese governmental Starlink equivalent

2024-12-10 22:41:08 CET

Five cubesats were deployed from the ISS on Dec 9 using
the Japanese J-SSOD No. 30 deployer on the end of the Kibo module's robot arm. Two 6U/10 kg sats: Taiwan's Onglaisat and ArkEdge (Tokyo)'s Yodaka; and three 1U/1 kg: Kansai U.'s DENDEN-01, Chiba Tech's Yomogi and Kyoto U's wooden Lignosat

2024-11-27 15:56:48 CET

Space Force has cataloged object 60058 / 2024-48D in an orbit near the Moon - it is likely DRO-B, and is in a similar orbit to 59228 / 2024-48A DRO-A. They were launched in March. May be a sign that USSF is upping its game on tracking cislunar objects - which is good news

2024-11-26 01:13:42 CET

Updated data for the Electron launch shows the kick stage did make a small perigee lowering burn to 556 x 639 km.

2024-11-25 14:36:49 CET

The five Kineis satellites launched last night cataloged by Space Force in a 638 x 650 km x 97.6 deg sun-synch orbit with 16:18 local time orbit plane. Stage 2 in 184 x 633 km, kick stage in 642 x 669 km (so apparently no perigee lowering burn despite one being mentioned on the launch webcast)

2024-11-22 01:31:26 CET

US DoD now says the IRBM launched from Kapustin Yar at Dnipro was indeed a derivative of the 15Zh67 Rubezh.
(They call Rubezh 'RS-26' which is a fake cover name used by Russia in arms control talks)
[www.defense.gov/News/News-St...](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3975321/russians-launch-new-missile-at-dnipro-us-provides-ukraine-with-new-tactical-wea/ )
[Russians Launch New Missile at...](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3975321/russians-launch-new-missile-at-dnipro-us-provides-ukraine-with-new-tactical-wea/ )

2024-11-21 19:00:14 CET

The missile fired against Dnipro seems to have carried multiple reentry vehicles with dummy (inert) warheads, so there was likely relatively limited damage.

2024-11-21 18:59:19 CET

Reassessment: the US classifies the 15Zh67 Rubezh as an IRBM (Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile) not a longer range ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile). So this morning's launch may well have been a Rubezh but was not an ICBM. This seems to reconcile the available info.

2024-11-21 15:55:46 CET

At about 0300 UTC Nov 21, Russia launched a large missile from Kapustin Yar against the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. The US has said that reports that the missile was a Rubezh (15Zh67) ICBM are incorrect; a smaller and shorter range missile is likely involved.

2024-11-18 19:41:59 CET

LAUNCH at 1831 UTC of India's GSAT-20 Ka-band comms satellite on Falcon 9 from Canaveral

2024-11-18 06:56:55 CET

Jonathan's Space Report No. 839 published at [planet4589.org/jsr.html](https://planet4589.org/jsr.html )
[Jonathan's Space Report - Late...](https://planet4589.org/jsr.html )

2024-11-16 23:32:53 CET

The Intelsat 33e communications satellite disintegrated on Oct 19; the first 18 debris objects (61988 to 62005) have now been cataloged by Space Force.

2024-11-15 05:24:51 CET

The first batch of 18 Qianfan (Chinese Starlink) satellites were launched in August. 17 have begun orbit raising; satellite 7 (catalog 60385, green) has not maneuvered and may have failed. The second batch(red) has a deployment orbit similar to the first but with a different orbital plane.
https://shiitake.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:vqtp5dj2o6rqnge56sz2db5a&cid=bafkreifcw2m44tkybcmjy6brlpgo3ivvlxa35kcrojobwk2cihfdvh73jy

2024-11-15 02:11:19 CET

The Soviet Oko No. 5001 missile warning satellite, codenamed Kosmos-1024, was launched in 1978 Jun and operated until 1980 May. It's been space junk since then and reentered over Oxford, Missisippi at 1415 UTC (8.15 am CST) on Nov 14 after 46.4 years in space.

2024-11-15 01:47:28 CET

The secret commercial satellite launched on the most recent Electron mission has been cataloged by Space Force as 'Protosat-1', with owner country Rwanda. This essentially confirms it is a satellite for E-Space, which registered its putative satcon with the ITU via Rwanda as a flag of convenience

2024-11-14 05:22:56 CET

The Japanese space agency JAXA launched the S-520-34 sounding rocket from Uchinoura at 0230 UTC Nov 14.
The payload, with an experimental ethanol/nitrous oxide rotating detonation engine, probably reached 200 to 300 km apogee.

2024-11-05 13:38:27 CET

LAUNCH at 1052 UTC of a Rocket Lab Electron with a secret commercial payload, suspected to be one or more communications satellites for E-Space.

2024-11-03 18:06:20 CET

Crew-9 Dragon relocated from the IDA-2/PMA-2 docking port to the IDA-3/PMA-3 port today, with Hague, Gorbunov, Wilmore, Williams aboard. Undocking was at 1135 UTC and docking with IDA-3 was at 1225 UTC.

2024-10-27 20:51:32 CET

The main debris object from the ASAT-destroyed Kosmos-1408 satellite reentered over the Arctic at 1011 UTC Oct 27.

2024-10-26 04:35:16 CEST

Jonathan's Space Report No. 838 published at [planet4589.org/jsr.html](https://planet4589.org/jsr.html ) with a summary of the past month's space news. A lot happened this month!
[Jonathan's Space Report - Late...](https://planet4589.org/jsr.html )

2024-10-25 15:06:38 CEST

Some kind of (hopefully minor) medical concern with the returned Crew-8: "[the crew] were taken to a local medical facility for additional evaluation [.. after] standard post-flight medical evaluations.Out of an abundance of caution, all crew members were flown to the facility together. " says NASA

2024-10-20 18:09:00 CEST

The 20 OneWeb internet satellites launched overnight are now in a 595 x 595 km x 86.5 deg orbit. The Falcon 9 second stage was deorbited to the south of South Africa with reentry about 0738 UTC.

2024-10-20 05:57:47 CEST

Debris object 41442, suspected to be the Extensible Optical Bench of the broken-apart Hitomi satellite, reentered at 2355 UTC Oct 18 over the Tocantins region of Brazil.

2024-10-20 05:31:48 CEST

Intelsat's IS-33e communications satellite has undergone a breakup event in geostationary orbit, with US Space Force reporting 20 tracked (but not yet cataloged) debris objects. The satellite was launched on 2016 Aug 24 and is over the Indian Ocean at 60.1E; breakup was 0430 UTC Oct 19.

2024-10-18 04:14:51 CEST

Europa Clipper update from the other site: "our spacecraft remains in a nominal state – power positive, thermally stable, dynamically stable, and in two-way communication with ground teams. [..] in a commissioning phase to confirm that all hardware and software is operating as expected."

2024-10-16 05:06:34 CEST

LAUNCH at 1106 UTC Oct 15 of the second group of 18 Qianfan internet satellites on a Chang Zheng 6A from Taiyuan

2024-10-13 14:25:37 CEST

LAUNCH at 1225 UTC of Starship flight test 5 from Boca Chica

2024-10-07 18:59:50 CEST

Many thanks to the Open Lunar Foundation
for issuing a statement in support of our call for cislunar/deep space transparency
[www.openlunar.org/blog/aas-sta...](https://www.openlunar.org/blog/aas-statement#article )
[AAS Statement](https://www.openlunar.org/blog/aas-statement#article )

2024-10-06 18:55:32 CEST

The Centaur stage from the Vulcan V-002 launch has been discovered by the Catalina and ATLAS asteroid surveys as object C43KHJ1, on a hyperbolic escape orbit from Earth with C3=3.55 km2/s2 heading for a 0.94 x 1.03 AU x 0.0 deg solar orbit.

2024-09-28 19:21:17 CEST

LAUNCH at 1717 UTC of Falcon 9 from Canaveral pad 40 with Dragon Crew-9 carrying NASA astronaut (and US Space Force Col.) Nick Hague and Roskosmos civilian astronaut Aleksandr Gorbunov

2024-09-28 15:26:53 CEST

SpaceX preparing for the Crew-9 Dragon launch at 1717 UTC Sep 28 from pad 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.
This will be the first human spaceflight launch from Canaveral since 1968 . (Since then, US flights have been from the NASA Kennedy Space Center spaceport next door.)

2024-09-27 21:44:54 CEST

The American Astronomical Society has issued a statement on the importance of transparency in cislunar and interplanetary spaceflight activities and SSA : [aas.org/sites/defaul...](https://aas.org/sites/default/files/2024-09/AAS%20Statment%20on%20Spaceflight%20Transparency.pdf )
- text copy on my site at [planet4589.org/space/policy...](https://planet4589.org/space/policy/DeepSpaceTransparency.txt )
[aas.org/sites/default/...](https://aas.org/sites/default/files/2024-09/AAS%20Statment%20on%20Spaceflight%20Transparency.pdf )

2024-09-25 06:30:38 CEST

Jonathan's Space Report No. 837 published at [planet4589.org/jsr.html](https://planet4589.org/jsr.html )
[Jonathan's Space Report - Late...](https://planet4589.org/jsr.html )

2024-09-15 03:04:52 CEST

As predicted, Polaris Dawn has lowered its orbit. New TLEs show an orbit of 187 x 452 km, consistent with a deorbit burn at 0654 UTC Sunday (apogee 75) and splashdown in the Tortuga landing area of 83.0W 25.1N at the announced time of 0736 UTC Sun Sep 15.

2024-09-14 16:01:18 CEST

LAUNCH on Sep 14 of a Qaem-100 rocket from Shahroud, Iran, placing the چمران 1 (Chamran 1) satellite
in orbit. Chamran 1 has a mass of 60 kg and is a technology sat to test out a propulsion system. No TLEs yet; I'll be able to estimate the launch time when the TLEs come out

2024-09-11 20:06:24 CEST

Following the first Polaris Dawn apogee boost, the mean elements had an apogee of 1395.6 km. The first apogee in the new orbit was at 0111:20 UTC, with an standard height of 1400.0 km (moment of maximum distance from geocenter); the max geoid height was 1408.3 km at around the same time.

2024-09-11 18:25:14 CEST

LAUNCH of Soyuz MS-26 at 1623 UTC Sep 11 with astronauts Ovchinin, Wagner and Pettit heading to the ISS

2024-08-26 07:01:07 CEST

Jonathan's Space Report No. 836 published at [planet4589.org/jsr.html](https://planet4589.org/jsr.html )
[Jonathan's Space Report - Late...](https://planet4589.org/jsr.html )