Kasjan

CFO @ Club Orange

Public Key

npub1hfcp37l949szn5lncakq2j0hmqe4dznxak74tsgkdzwryvqpk2dq2xfpjs

NIP-05 Address

Profile Code

nprofile1qqst5uqcl0j6jcpf60euwmq9f8masv6k3fnwm024cytx38pjxqqm9xspz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dsdu7jjx

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relay.damus.io

nos.lol

Author Public Key

npub1hfcp37l949szn5lncakq2j0hmqe4dznxak74tsgkdzwryvqpk2dq2xfpjs

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Last Notes

2026-03-05 07:31:49 CET

If you support KYC, you don't understand money.
You're just a useful idiot for Cantillonaires who want to keep us trapped in their fiat system.

2026-02-06 13:26:04 CET

Peak LinkedIn. Peak retardation.
HFSP
https://blossom.primal.net/56633091b643cf9c8a4b34aebcc2d9dc3821c045c4adfbbafa1ae0021ccee826.jpg

2026-02-04 05:28:06 CET

I just geo-zapped every Club Orange member in Japan 🇯🇵 to promote my incoming Bitcoin Kanazawa meetup.
It cost me $1. Incredible.
Let’s meetup if you’re around in March!
@nprofile…6sc7 @npub1wj0…mkes
https://blossom.primal.net/6788391ab4b9165d260d5a3acc5f7b48f79fbed5b796db5b97f0d0e2c7ed9139.jpg

2025-12-01 09:02:13 CET

Saylor just posted something cryptic.
"What if we start adding green dots?"
Most people think it means MSTR share buybacks.
I think they're wrong. ❌
🟢 Green dots = BTC buys funded through a BTC-backed bank line.
Overcollateralized. SOFR + ~1%.
Same dots, new source of capital.
🔶 Why does this matter?
If banks accept Bitcoin as collateral, borrowing against it becomes far cheaper. For everyone.
This is a massive long-term validation.
And Strategy wants us to notice.
🔶 Why am I confident?
In January 2025, while everyone was focused on the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (which never happened), I was focused on something else: SAB121 repeal.
I predicted those accounting rules would change.
They did—shortly after.
That change made BTC-backed bank lines possible. 🔓
Now, close to one year later, it's about time to see this implemented.
The mainstream says: share buybacks.
I say: Bitcoin-backed credit lines from major banks.
We'll see who's right.
👉 Follow for more contrarian takes and nuanced analysis on Bitcoin, saving, and investing.
#Bitcoin #MSTR #Saylor
https://blossom.primal.net/865e56af381d639aeb47be28c77bf2b5dc91223773ed355e7cffb746661c3fed.png

2025-11-22 10:36:46 CET

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What's the solution for Samourai devs epecifically? They need some resultion, I'm comfy where I am.

2025-11-20 15:58:53 CET

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You made some good points, but the missing point is: what’s the better solution?

2025-11-11 08:57:20 CET

Kraken charged my father 2.9% to buy Bitcoin.
The real fee? 0.3%.
They hid the cheap option and hoped he wouldn't notice.
My father has been buying Bitcoin for a while now. Small amounts, nothing crazy.
Last week I asked him: "Did you nail the bottom? What price did you get?"
He gave me exact numbers—including all the decimals on the BTC amount.
Something didn't add up.
"Wait. The math doesn't work." 😐
No typos. I had him show me his Kraken account.
Here's what I found:
He's been using Kraken's default instant buy feature this entire time.
They charged him around 3% per transaction.
Kraken Pro—literally one setting toggle away—charges 0.25% + minimal spread (~0.3% total).
They made nearly 10x more by hiding the cheaper option. 🫠
And he's been doing this for months.
I called my non-trader friends and family who buy Bitcoin occasionally.
Every single one: using the expensive "beginner" interfaces.
Collectively, they've lost hundreds—maybe thousands—over the years.
This isn't an accident.
💠 Exchanges design their interfaces this way:
Default = expensive (2-3%)
"Pro" = cheap (0.2-0.4%)
No warning. No notification.
They're counting on you not knowing there's a cheaper option one click away.
💠 Check your exchange today:
Kraken: Toggle "Kraken Pro" in settings
Coinbase: Switch to "Advanced Trade"
Other exchanges: Look for "Pro" or "Trading" mode
Usually one click away. Could save you thousands.
Share this with anyone buying Bitcoin on exchanges.
I'm writing “Broken Prices: The Road to Sound Money”
Get notified when it's out → soundmoneyroad.com
hasztag#Kraken hasztag#Coinbase hasztag#BrokenPrices
https://blossom.primal.net/11dcd1669c7a27f111cd567641b565c3fab7016d043deb464d0702b64eeec58a.png

2025-11-05 09:29:40 CET

Discussing Bitcoin with boomers in 2025 be like:
https://blossom.primal.net/28890e6d7479ee0763d1822cb7a793127beefd27ad7668f63dea62c1e6ddee02.jpg

2025-11-04 10:14:38 CET

𝗔𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝗶𝗴 𝗲𝘅𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗯𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗱𝗿𝗮𝘄𝗮𝗹𝘀.
Bank run in progress. In the last 24 hours, users have pulled 37% of all funds.
The exchange? MEXC.
The CEO publicly admitted—at least once—that funds get blocked or unblocked when they "get emotional."
Yes, you read that right. Your funds. Their emotions.
(Most likely they have serious liquidity problems. The emotions are just the cherry on top.)
This is why "not your keys, not your coins" isn't just a slogan.
Exchanges can—and do—take or lose your Bitcoin:
▪️ Hacks (Mt. Gox, Bitfinex)
▪️ Exit scams (QuadrigaCX, Thodex)
▪️ Fraud (FTX—CEO's girlfriend needed to cover bad trades, customers paid the bill)
And now: withdrawals frozen based on feelings.
The reality:
If an exchange is insolvent, there won't be enough funds for everyone. The last people to withdraw lose everything.
𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗱𝗼𝗻'𝘁 𝘄𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁.
Some things to consider:
1. 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗳-𝗰𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗱𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗿𝗱—if done properly, no one can confiscate or steal your Bitcoin (except through physical force). But this requires learning how to do it right.
2. 𝗜𝗳 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝗲𝘅𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀—stick to large, established ones (founded before 2015). Even then, don't store more than you're willing to lose.
3. 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗲𝘅𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵—tools in the comment below let you track Bitcoin balances on exchanges. Sudden drops = warning sign.
If you have funds on MEXC: 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗱𝗿𝗮𝘄 𝗶𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗹𝘆 if you still can. It's could be over for them.
I'm writing “Broken Prices: The Road to Sound Money”—a book about money and Bitcoin.
Get notified when it launches → soundmoneyroad.com 📖
Tools to monitor exchange balances:
Bitcoin balances on exchanges (more reliable, shorter list):
https://www.coinglass.com/Balance
"Clean Assets" balances in USD (less reliable, bigger list):
https://defillama.com/cexs
Note: Having balances on these lists does not guarantee solvency. ☠️
#Bitcoin #SelfCustody #MEXC #BrokenPrices
https://blossom.primal.net/6f8100e41ec7bdb2a034817b115224991b6a8dc169c8d854a0dada7f4fb55cc5.png

2025-11-02 08:22:35 CET

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Larry is a treasure!

2025-10-30 09:49:32 CET

A senior finance director once told me: "I hate Bitcoin."
This is someone I respect. Smart guy. Decades of experience.
And yet... he hates Bitcoin.
Let me tell you what "I hate Bitcoin" actually means:
❌ "I hate money" → No
❌ "I hate good technology" → No
✅ "I hate that young people found an exit" → Yes
🔸 Here's the uncomfortable truth
The boomer generation built wealth in a specific system:
- Buy stocks (they go up forever)
- Buy bonds (safe yield)
- Buy real estate (prices only rise)
- Repeat for 40 years
It worked. Because the money supply expanded faster than the asset base, inflating everything they owned.
Now they're retiring. And they need someone to buy those assets at inflated prices.
🔸 Then Bitcoin appeared.
Young people look at the game and see:
- Stocks at all-time highs (P/E ratios make no sense)
- Bonds yielding 2% while they print 6% new currency per year
- Real estate requiring 10+ year salaries for a down payment
- Pensions that won't exist when they retire
And they say: "No thanks. I'll take the fixed-supply digital asset instead."
This is the real threat.
If the next generation opts out and buys Bitcoin instead of boomer assets...
Who's buying the stocks at these valuations?
Who's buying the bonds that lose 4% per year in real terms?
Who's buying the house for $800k that cost $80k in 1985?
They don't hate Bitcoin because it's a scam.
They hate it because it's an "exit"—and someone needs to stay in the system to buy their bags.
"I hate Bitcoin" = "I hate that you found a way out before I could sell you my overpriced assets."
I'm writing about this wealth transfer in "Broken Prices: The Road to Sound Money" 📖
Get notified → soundmoneyroad.com
#Bitcoin #ExitStrategy #Finance #BrokenPrices
https://blossom.primal.net/5523086d0568ba26efa211d9b2c24ab970634c2411a6016259bcf2ae78f67418.jpg

2025-10-23 06:14:01 CEST

There are only 2 endgames for shitcoins:
1) Rugpull - quick and painless
2) Slow rug - over years, you pivot narratives (payments → DeFi → NFTs → ultrasound money → RWA) while dumping on noobs who think "this time it pumps".
KDA team: hackathon yesterday, shutting down today.
https://blossom.primal.net/7458ce7b005699d323af0786d3f3305c877f5adbf7d4d29c3d3cd65113a25e36.png

2025-10-22 09:59:50 CEST

I just open-sourced institutional due diligence on a $1.2B real estate tokenization project.
Commissioned by a private investor + legal counsel. They agreed to publish the complete report.
With RWA heating up again, here's what professional diligence actually found:
- $1.2B in claimed assets - zero proof of ownership
- No legal mechanism linking tokens to property rights
- "Zero risk" yield with no disclosed cash flow source
- No verified founders or governance
Full report (methodology, red flags, competitive analysis):
soundmoneyroad.com
This is what real diligence looks like - and why most tokenization projects can't survive it.

2025-10-14 12:13:50 CEST

The $19 Billion Lesson Nobody Wants to Learn
Friday, October 10th, 2025. While you slept, $19 billion evaporated from the crypto markets in what became the largest liquidation event in digital asset history.
1.6 million traders woke up to discover their portfolios had vanished. Multi-million dollar accounts reduced to zero. One top-100 token—ATOM—literally hit zero on Binance. Not "nearly zero." Zero. 👋
Here's what happened:
A sophisticated whale exploited Binance's price oracle, manipulating the data feed that determines collateral values across the exchange. As collateral values crashed, cascading liquidations ripped through thousands of leveraged positions like dominoes. 📉
Then Trump escalated the China trade war via social media post—conveniently timed during the lowest liquidity hours of the trading week. The timing raises questions nobody in power wants to answer.
The result? Junk coins down 80% or more.
(See image below - this is an unleveraged portfolio that survived the carnage. No margin calls, no liquidations. Just straight portfolio destruction 🪦 .)
Fortunes built on leverage, destroyed in hours. But even if you played it "safe" without leverage, Friday was a masterclass in why the casino doesn't need margin to take your money.
🟠 And here's the part that matters:
This wasn't a black swan event. This was the casino operating exactly as designed. The house always wins, and leverage always finds its victims.
There's a different game being played—one that doesn't require you to gamble, trade, or stay awake monitoring positions at 3am.
Bitcoin. Not for trading. For saving. 🪙
"But the returns!" you say. Here's the thing: we're still at less than 0.5% of global savings allocated to Bitcoin. We're not late. We're absurdly early🌱 . The adoption curve hasn't even begun its vertical climb.
You can capture extraordinary returns without playing in the casino. You just have to be patient enough to let adoption do the work while everyone else is getting liquidated chasing 100x shitcoins.
The crypto market just taught a $19 billion lesson.
Most people have already ignored it and reloaded their gambling accounts.
You don't have to be most people.
https://blossom.primal.net/eea24c3ff530f7fbf053c1dd72adb00f6cd42f36c487154618f1aad6b596392c.jpg

2025-10-09 11:10:32 CEST

Here’s the original caption for this excellent chart (posted by [@Ra89Capital] on X):
“Make no mistake, it [Bitcoin] hasn’t done jack f*cking shit in years vs real money.”
My take:
1️⃣Use the right denominator.
Any serious financial comparison needs a sound unit of account — not a fiat currency that steadily loses purchasing power (including the USD 💵).
2️⃣Frustration is real.
What might be counterintuitive, people who understand point #1 have been disappointed with Bitcoin’s performance in recent years. Sentiment in Bitcoin circles isn’t great 🤦‍♂️⛈️— and the chart captures why.
3️⃣Bitcoin vs. gold.
Holding Bitcoin has still beaten holding gold:
🔸Physical gold is easy to confiscate🫳💰;
Bitcoin isn’t🫳🖕.
🔸Gold ☎️faces existential risk from Bitcoin — its digital successor📱.
🔸Bitcoin is ~10x smaller than gold and adopting much faster, which leaves more room for sharp upside🚀. It may take patience😴, but the asymmetry remains.
If you’d like this and much more explained in plain, no-jargon language, drop your email on my site — I’ll let you know when my book “Broken Prices”📖 is out.
It will make concepts like “the right denominator” feel simple and intuitive.
👉 SoundMoneyRoad.com
#Bitcoin #SoundMoney #BrokenPrices #Macro #Finance
https://blossom.primal.net/33d3f574b5bd7653e9a81a435d7b10248e2503bf67530cff3634358cd9884449.jpg

2025-10-07 11:54:13 CEST

Gold wasn’t valuable because of jewelry 📿.
It was money first—and that’s why people wore it.
The popular tale says we loved shiny trinkets and then they became money. Sounds nice. But it’s backwards.
Gold beat other goods because it’s durable, divisible, verifiable, and highly value-dense. Crucially, its stock-to-flow is high: the total stock already above ground dwarfs the new annual supply, so new mining⛏️ barely dilutes holders. That’s why it worked so well for saving and exchange.
After gold became money, people did the obvious thing: they wore their savings. In many cultures, gold jewelry functions as a portable savings account—wealth you can carry, pledge, or pass down.
As Nick Szabo put it, early “collectibles” evolved into money because they were superb at storing and signaling value across time and groups. Jewelry followed money—not the other way around.
Myth busted: We didn’t prize gold due to ornaments. We made ornaments out of gold because it was already the best money 🪙.
#gold #investing #Bitcoin #SoundMoney #AustrianEconomics
https://blossom.primal.net/168dc21001fa62e3d542ec07eaf0c6941d0456aea7107b56e85ee4e95fc60990.png

2025-09-30 12:07:30 CEST

That viral “gold vs U.S. Treasuries” chart is misleading. ❗
It compares gold (a reserve asset) to USTs (just one instrument inside USD-denominated FX assets). Apples 🍎 vs oranges 🍊 .
1️⃣ What are “total reserves” ❓
For simplicity: Total reserves = FX assets 🏦 (e.g., U.S. Treasuries, USD/EUR bank deposits) + gold 🪙 + SDRs 🧻 (IMF-created reserve asset that can be swapped for currency).
2️⃣ Today’s rough mix (shares of total reserves):
🪙 Gold: ~20%
💵 USD (all USD-denominated FX assets, not just Treasuries): ~46%
💶 EUR: ~16%
🧻 Other: ~18%
3️⃣ Why USTs ≠ the whole USD picture (and what’s the split?)
Within USD FX assets globally (100% = USD only):
🧻 U.S. Treasuries: ~50%
🧻 USD bank deposits: ~43%
🧻 Other (agencies/MBS, MMFs, supranationals): ~7%
4️⃣ Is the USD share in reserves collapsing like some charts suggest?
No. The Fed’s 2025 update shows the USD share of FX reserves has been roughly stable around ~58%, only ~1–2pp lower than 2021–22. If you include gold (whose price rose), the USD share of total reserves edges down a bit more—still a modest drift, not a collapse.
(Reminder: the Fed figure is FX-only; adding gold changes the denominator.)
✨ Bottom line: The chart pits gold vs USTs, not gold vs USD. Gold’s share is up mainly because gold’s price rose, and while that mechanically trims the USD share of total reserves a little, the USD’s role in reserves still remains steady.
🟠 Personal note: I do expect gold’s share to continue rising 📈 and the USD share to continue declining 📉 —but likely more slowly 🐢 than many would like.
https://blossom.primal.net/a94bd51ebb4d7b73c41dc57a8103bf350f31b5f6004e6da975850cd651133d30.jpg
Sources:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-international-role-of-the-u-s-dollar-2025-edition-20250718.html <-great report on the topic.
https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/208161634873587549/pdf/Central-Bank-Reserve-Management-Practices-Insights-into-Public-Asset-Management.pdf
#CentralBankReserves #Gold #DeDollarization #SoundMoney #economics #finance #USDollar

2025-09-30 05:14:37 CEST

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Be brave. Don’t be a little bitch.
#nevent1q…cd6j

2025-09-29 09:00:29 CEST

👇 English below
Kilka dni temu brałem udział w rozmowie z Richard Zalski z Radio WNET oraz z Oskar Pilch w ramach „Pomarańczowego Studia”, audycji poświęconej Bitcoinowi.
Tym razem rozmawialiśmy o:
🔸 tym dlaczego Bitcoin?
🔸 tym dlaczego cena Bitcoina rośnie?
🔸 Bitcoinie jako barometrze płynności,
🔸 deflacji technologicznej.
Zapraszam do odsłuchania!
🔶 ENG:
A few days ago, I took part in a thought-provoking conversation with Richard Zalski from Radio WNET and Oskar Pilch as part of “Orange Studio” show, dedicated to Bitcoin.
We talked about:
🔸 why Bitcoin?
🔸 why BTC price "constantly" rises?
🔸 BTC as liquidity barometer,
🔸 technological deflation.
The conversation is in Polish, but Google Translate works surprisingly well.
More English content coming later this year — stay tuned!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsZg86QC2CI

2025-09-24 10:32:55 CEST

Back from a rainy Hong Kong 🌧️—just recorded with Fernando on the Bitcoin Libertarian podcast @nprofile…kdlf .
We covered:
1️⃣ My upcoming book — 🔖Broken Prices: The Road to Sound Money
Get first-release updates: soundmoneyroad.com
2️⃣ Why prices feel “broken”
The tug-of-war between Technological Deflation and Monetary Expansion (with the Ford F-Series as a simple example).
3️⃣ Real estate in Hong Kong and globally.
4️⃣ Saving is hard—what the future of saving could look like.
5️⃣ Inheritance scenario—what Fernando might do if/when he gets a house.
6️⃣ Bitcoin-treasury companies—how to think about them.
If this resonates, follow for more.
Watch here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9SGlf3g9VU

2025-09-17 12:02:33 CEST

The Dark Side of the Bitcoin Rush ⛈️
After years of meetups, conferences, and working with Bitcoiners, my conviction in this community has only grown. When you can truly save—without fear of confiscation—people become more independent and future-oriented. The result is an unusually optimistic, hopeful culture 🌈 .
Lately, though, something has shifted. What few say out loud is this: we’ve drifted into a free-for-all where the scoreboard is:
“how much Bitcoin you have on the other side of this monetary revolution”.
Some of the original ethos—freedom, privacy, mutual support—has been eroded by a Bitcoin-rush mindset. With a fixed supply and only a small portion left to be mined, the pressure is on: Everyone is racing to accumulate as much ‘cheap’ Bitcoin as possible today—before the world catches up to this monetary revolution.
You can already see the symptoms: reputations monetized in short-sighted ways, low-effort products and courses, paid shills, rug pulls—and on the labor side, underpaying people desperate to work “in Bitcoin.”
Do real due diligence. Understand incentives. Protect your time and your keys. Don’t be the sucker at the table.
What changes have you noticed in the culture since 2024–2025?
https://blossom.primal.net/e593e94701baa6a1079c5814baa3b1a6e47ccf44962196a5a324f9e592a2dcd1.jpg

2025-09-17 06:19:40 CEST

The fight over Bitcoin boils down to first principles:
Austrian-leaning/Bitcoin-maxi folks see value as subjective—discovered by markets.
Fiat loyalists treat value as something to be engineered by central planning—via policy, subsidies, bailouts.

2025-09-16 12:38:58 CEST

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That’s right 👌🏻🔥

2025-09-16 10:46:44 CEST

On Bitcoin Treasury Companies: The Case Study of NAKA (NASDAQ: NAKA)
Yesterday, one of the most prominent Bitcoin treasury companies, $NAKA (NASDAQ: NAKA), plummeted 55% 📉 . This amplified its dismal one-month performance to -80% and marked a staggering 97% decline from its peak on May 22, 2025.
WHAT HAPPENED?
1️⃣ It began with an intensive marketing campaign, perfectly timed to capitalize on the "Bitcoin treasury companies" wave.
2️⃣ The stock price rose on very low volume before skyrocketing to over $30 per share in May 2025. There are unconfirmed allegations of wash trading—price manipulation by individuals connected to the company—which would have been straightforward to execute given the low volume-to-market-cap ratio at the time.
3️⃣ $NAKA sold a significant amount of equity (equivalent to over 80% of its fully diluted market cap) in mid-2025 at $1.12 USD per share.
4️⃣ Investors who acquired this equity at $1.12 were positioned for a massive 20x profit when the market price exceeded $20. Savvy investors hedged this enormous profit by shorting the stock.
5️⃣ Eventually, these shares began unlocking—allowing them to be sold on the open market—after 90 days, right around now.
6️⃣ The stock price collapsed, with the $1.12 level acting like a magnet pulling it downward.
This has left many retail investors, who bought shares in the $10-30 range during the hype, feeling rug-pulled. However, if private equity holders are sitting on substantial profits relative to the current public stock price, there's a strong likelihood they'll take those gains, triggering market collapses.
Several other Bitcoin treasury companies face similar large unlocks in the near future (e.g., as noted by @Pledditor on X regarding $ASST).
You can try to make an extra buck on Bitcoin treasury companies, OR you could simply buy Bitcoin, hold it in self-custody, and relax. 🌈
Further Reading:
🔶 Who bought $NAKA private equity?, from @Pledditor: https://x.com/Pledditor/status/1967631555469402175
🔶 Great research from @bigmagicdao, from early June 2025: https://x.com/bigmagicdao/status/1929924199881289962
#BitcoinTreasury #Bitcoin #Crypto #StockMarket #Investing
https://blossom.primal.net/6df8fdfb752433f3bf233f6919a89d2c85253137254e1d7df62201ccf18265c5.png https://blossom.primal.net/6df8fdfb752433f3bf233f6919a89d2c85253137254e1d7df62201ccf18265c5.png

2025-09-02 16:30:52 CEST

Can stablecoin issuers save the US dollar?
Andrew Tate claims that pushing Bitcoin to $1M could “save the dollar” by forcing stablecoin issuers to buy U.S. government debt. Let’s break down whether that idea holds up.
🟢 What are stablecoins?
Stablecoins are digital dollars on blockchain rails, backed by real U.S. dollars or government debt. Two issuers dominate: Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC). Together they’ve issued nearly $250B, with around $200B parked in U.S. Treasuries. Tether alone is now among the top 20 holders of U.S. government debt.
🟢 Does the dollar even need saving?
The dollar is still the world’s reserve currency, but the balance sheet is ugly.
U.S. debt is 120%+ of GDP. Historically, crossing 130% often precedes default within a decade (Reinhart, Rogoff).
In 2024, for the first time ever, the U.S. government spent more on interest than on the military. That’s a classic red flag for declining empires.
So yes, the dollar is strong globally, but structurally fragile.
🟢 Bitcoin and stablecoins move together
When Bitcoin rallies, stablecoin issuance explodes. Bigger BTC market cap → bigger positions, more collateral, more reserves. Today, Bitcoin’s market cap is about $2.2T, almost 10x the stablecoin market. If Bitcoin hit $1M, stablecoins could plausibly grow 10x too — to around $2.5T. That means perhaps $2T flowing into U.S. Treasuries. Massive.
But here’s where Tate’s theory breaks down 👇
🟢 Three problems
🔶 Structural deficits 💸
In 2024 alone, the U.S. issued $2T of new debt. Even if stablecoins pumped overnight, that covers just one year of overspending. The last budget surplus was in 2001. The U.S. isn’t fixing its deficits — it’s doubling down.
🔶 Better yields elsewhere 💰
Stablecoins can earn 2–3x Treasury yields just by being lent out in Bitcoin markets — without taking price risk on Bitcoin itself. In bull runs, these rates have spiked to 25–50%. Faced with that, why would investors settle for 4% from Treasuries?
🔶 Bitcoin escape velocity 🚀
Pushing BTC to $1M risks unleashing it beyond anyone’s control. Suddenly, everyday people would find their net worth multiplied. Merchants would be incentivized to accept Bitcoin directly, kickstarting circular economies. At that point, Bitcoin stops “saving” the dollar and starts replacing it.
🟢 The takeaway
Stablecoins delay the dollar’s reckoning by buying Treasuries in the short term. But they can’t save it. America’s problem isn’t a lack of buyers — it’s a lack of fiscal discipline. And the more Bitcoin grows, the more obvious that problem becomes.
https://blossom.primal.net/dd0941375cc0ad313972463c985d6f0ecab4e74051f2f31caf2a6ac04bc4b019.png

2025-08-28 06:37:12 CEST

From Declined Cards to Lightning Fast
This week, I tried to buy a new internet domain.
Normally I use SquareSpace (which took over Google Domains), and it always worked just fine. But this time? My payment didn’t go through. Strange, since I’ve been a customer for over two years.
So I double-checked everything:
• Card details? ✔
• Billing address? ✔
• Tried three different cards? ✔✔✔
Still nothing. All payments failed.
The thing is, legacy payments aren’t just “you → merchant.”
There are half a dozen middlemen who can block the transaction at any point:
1. Card issuer (e.g., WISE)
2. Network (e.g., Visa)
3. Payment processor (e.g., Square)
4. Merchant's bank (e.g., Chase)
5. Currency conversion provider
6. The merchant itself (e.g., SquareSpace)
Some mismatch in your address, a suspicious flag, or a system hiccup—and you're locked out.
After wasting far too much time and energy, I gave up and went to a different provider. One that accepted Bitcoin via Lightning Network.
This time, I used a non-custodial Lightning wallet.
✅ No card issuer
✅ No Visa
✅ No bank
Just me → the merchant. And it worked instantly.
It felt like a small miracle. Or more precisely—a glimpse of the future.
It left me with two big questions:
1. What do people without Bitcoin do in this situation?
o Apply for another card and try again?
o Switch providers until one works?
o Or just give up on their idea altogether?
2. Is it just me—or are the wheels starting to fall off the fiat payments wagon?
Picture unrelated. Or... is it? https://blossom.primal.net/575d35cb82c000c4bd2b45d324a983b4292fdcdbf726e4b87f68df886305797a.jpg

2025-08-19 05:12:45 CEST

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It's best time to get your lifetime membership now.
#nevent1q…hu67

2025-08-12 08:19:20 CEST

👇 English below
Kilka dni temu brałem udział w rozmowie z Richard Zalski z Radio WNET oraz z Radek Pogoda w ramach „Pomarańczowego Studia”, audycji poświęconej Bitcoinowi.
Tym razem rozmawialiśmy o własności prywatnej: o zakusach rządów oraz o tym, jak się przed nimi ochronić.
Zapraszam do odsłuchania!
🔶 ENG:
A few days ago, I took part in a thought-provoking conversation with Richard Zalski from Radio WNET and Radek Pogoda as part of “Orange Studio” show, dedicated to Bitcoin.
This time, we talked about private property - how the governments violate it and how to protect ourselves.
The conversation is in Polish, but Google Translate works surprisingly well.
More English content coming later this year — stay tuned!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPZDcAX-pAg

2025-08-11 17:11:45 CEST

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Sent

2025-08-11 14:48:06 CEST

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Thanks, can I zap here to your wallet or anywhere else?

2025-08-04 09:15:17 CEST

SATS BOUNTY - 5 000 SATS
Reposition the top speech bubble so that its tail clearly points to the man on the right, instead of the woman. Do not change the text or anything else.
First come, first served, valid for 48 hours from now.
https://blossom.primal.net/b039d1c49224bd33241d59ffc46fdef68c7c21f935d802972da856c1b593133d.png

2025-03-13 11:16:08 CET

Bitcoin Maximalist rejects fiat money.
Maxi rejects voluntary participation in a monetary system where there are masters and slaves.
Does it mean that Bitcoin Maximalist fundamentally believes that all humans are equal?
Can Maxi be a racist?

2025-02-18 04:02:23 CET

US gov is supposed to have 4580 tons of gold 🪙 reserves.
This is around 2% of total physical gold in circulation.
If it's gone (stolen or misappropriated), and this is made public, the US 🏛️ will have two choices:
1) once again confiscate foreign gold (6-7000 tons in US custody), 🪦
2) leapfrog & pivot quickly to Bitcoin. ⛓️
The latter will crash gold price, the former will pump it.
Auditing gold is hard: very expensive and cumbersome. De facto you have to melt and recast all the gold bars.
But it could be done.. once a decade for example..
Based on public information there was a full Fort Knox audit in 1953 and partial in 1974.
I just filed so called "FOIA request" to the US Treasury to obtain documents from these audits. Based on Freedom of Information Act I should be able to get something, let's see. 👀 https://m.primal.net/PBEq.jpg

2025-01-27 16:56:11 CET

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Fair 🍻

2025-01-27 16:55:22 CET

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I'm also not excited about USG owning a lot of Bitcoin. If they have a lot, they might threaten to insta dump it etc. But I don't mind the price to run - vast majority of shitcoiners and bad actors are massively under allocated imo. Thx for answer.

2025-01-27 13:15:13 CET

This is my Bitcoin Bingo for 2025.
How many will we hit this year??
What else would be fun to have on a bingo card?
https://m.primal.net/OCfU.jpg

2025-01-27 04:44:56 CET

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How so? 🤔

2025-01-23 06:23:13 CET

wrapped Bitcoin is to Bitcoin
what
UST (terra) was to USD:
a shitcoin.
https://m.primal.net/NvrZ.jpg

2025-01-18 17:08:26 CET

Trump is starting his presidency with selling unregistered securities and basically a money grab.
This is a big FU towards SEC, basic rules and common sense.
Not surprising, but still somewhat disappointing. Regulators will love the excuse for Chokepoint 3.0 when new government comes after Trump.
https://m.primal.net/Nmdr.jpg

2025-01-18 12:32:58 CET

TWO UNPOPULAR OPINIONS on SBR and SAB121*
*Related to banking accounting rules, de facto allowing commercial banks to custody Bitcoin.
OPINION 1) Trump will repeal SAB121 before creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). Neither will happen this week, although he might hint at or set in motion the former.
1. Creating an SBR would use up his political capital, while repealing SAB121 would generate political capital.
From a shallow, but most common perspective:
SBR: CLEAR what it is; benefits are VAGUE.
SAB121: VAGUE what it is; benefits are CLEAR (for interested parties).
Announcing the SBR could double the Bitcoin price in the short term, making SBR execution less viable. Announcing it prematurely would be a bad business decision. Instead, they should buy BTC and announce once they believe they've acquired enough.
OPINION 2) Repealing SAB121 is far more important than the creation of an SBR.
SBR would strengthen the government, while repealing SAB121 would empower the individual. A strong, happy society is built on strong individuals.
https://m.primal.net/NmOF.jpg

2025-01-17 16:46:16 CET

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Publish Bitcoin book for one 😉

2025-01-16 10:53:02 CET

A simple heuristic to check if they are a Bitcoiner, is to ask them:
"Is Ethereum a shitcoin?"
YES - they are likely a Bitcoiner,
NO - they are a shitcoiner.
https://m.primal.net/NjCk.jpg

2025-01-15 04:51:22 CET

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Are you happy with the move?

2025-01-14 07:21:03 CET

On average presidents were signing 5 executive orders in the first three days in the office and some of you people say Trump will sign 1200 EO on day 1.
It's ludicrous.
Bitcoin Strategic Reserve is not happening via EO in January 2025.
https://m.primal.net/Nfno.jpg

2025-01-13 09:59:30 CET

https://m.primal.net/NeXy.png
MONETARY PRISONER'S DILEMMA: BITCOIN AND NATION-STATES
A monetary prisoner’s dilemma explores four distinct scenarios:
1) Every nation-state buys Bitcoin.
First come, first served. Demand from nation-states pushes the price higher, accelerating transition to the Bitcoin Standard. Early adopters accumulate more at lower prices, while laggards are left to accumulate less at higher prices. International trade increasingly settles in neutral reserve assets like Bitcoin or gold. Countries will either accumulate significant amounts of Bitcoin cheaply or need to generate it through a trade surplus.
2 and 3) Some nation-states buy Bitcoin, while others do not.
Countries that purchased Bitcoin use it for trade settlement with one another, while non-adopting countries continue moving away from USD settlement towards gold. Countries using Bitcoin for trade settlement become more competitive and prosperous due to:
1. The devaluation of gold caused by new supplies of both physical and paper gold entering the market.
2. The high costs associated with transporting and verifying physical gold (e.g., melting and recasting).
4) No nation-state buys Bitcoin.
(purely theoretical: Bhutan is already mining Bitcoin, and El Salvador is both buying and mining it.)
Individuals, businesses, and funds continue accumulating new supply, driving adoption forward without government involvement. As an increasing amount of wealth secured in Bitcoin (which cannot be debased), money printing becomes ever more difficult and eventually impossible. Without money printing, twin deficits (trade and budget deficits) can no longer be financed, leading to a significant reduction in government size worldwide. This shrinkage of government is a welcome change for a large portion of citizens.
Genuine question: Which scenario do you prefer, and why?

2025-01-13 09:48:16 CET

MONETARY PRISONER'S DILEMMA: BITCOIN AND NATION-STATES
A monetary prisoner’s dilemma explores four distinct scenarios:
1) Every nation-state buys Bitcoin.
First come, first served. Demand from nation-states pushes the price higher, accelerating transition to the Bitcoin Standard. Early adopters accumulate more at lower prices, while laggards are left to accumulate less at higher prices. International trade increasingly settles in neutral reserve assets like Bitcoin or gold. Countries will either accumulate significant amounts of Bitcoin cheaply or need to generate it through a trade surplus.
2 and 3) Some nation-states buy Bitcoin, while others do not.
Countries that purchased Bitcoin use it for trade settlement with one another, while non-adopting countries continue moving away from USD settlement towards gold. Countries using Bitcoin for trade settlement become more competitive and prosperous due to:
1. The devaluation of gold caused by new supplies of both physical and paper gold entering the market.
2. The high costs associated with transporting and verifying physical gold (e.g., melting and recasting).
4) No nation-state buys Bitcoin.
(purely theoretical: Bhutan is already mining Bitcoin, and El Salvador is both buying and mining it.)
Individuals, businesses, and funds continue accumulating new supply, driving adoption forward without government involvement. As an increasing amount of wealth secured in Bitcoin (which cannot be debased), money printing becomes ever more difficult and eventually impossible. Without money printing, twin deficits (trade and budget deficits) can no longer be financed, leading to a significant reduction in government size worldwide. This shrinkage of government is a welcome change for a large portion of citizens.
Genuine question: Which scenario do you prefer, and why?
https://m.primal.net/NeXy.png

2024-12-31 09:30:52 CET

Bitcoin Hanoi #2 is coming soon!
When: Wed., 8th of Jan 2025, 7:00pm.
Where: DM for location
Who: all Bitcoiners / Bitcoin curious / friends
PS. shitcoiners & scammers⛔️
PPS.Everyone gets 🧧 from our dear friends @npub13ek…4946
https://m.primal.net/NMRy.webp

2024-12-26 05:10:22 CET

In 2024 I was mostly interacting with these payment networks:
1. Revolut – account blocked for already 7 days pending “account verification” “for my own safety”. No explanation, extra KYC request or ETA when this will be resolved. 2 600 EUR blocked or lost.
2. PayPal – employees tried to scam me for 4 000 EUR, after discussing this with my lawyer, I told them to f*ck off. They closed my account.
3. Dutch bank – open a file and put me on some shit list, but still works well (only in the Netherlands tho).
How do people put up with this? And not lose their minds?
Fortunately, there is also Bitcoin & Lightning Network:
https://m.primal.net/NGpx.jpg

2024-12-25 14:42:35 CET

So I wanted to buy Primal Premium and realized that I literally cannot do it.
1) My bank account is blocked and unclear when/if will be unblocked,
2) PayPal basically rugged me, I dont have access to it (nor I want to),
3) Bitcoin not accepted.
Why, once again, garbage fiat payment rails are prioritized to Bitcoin?
Aren't we here just because centralized stuff is seizing up?
@npub1s5y…6q7z

2024-12-25 08:53:57 CET

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Now many people cannot afford to have a family and live a decent life, but they think it's okay, because the government will take care of them when they are old.
A time will come when it will be obvious how naive this thinking was. Some people will get some very brutal wake up calls.
There will be a generation, which will not be able to retire.
#note1m4q…f43u

2024-12-23 16:58:07 CET

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Ha Noi is on board 🫡

2024-12-23 16:54:49 CET

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Wygląda super Gracjan!

2024-11-26 05:42:25 CET

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I am launching a Bitcoin Hanoi Meetup. Come over to talk about Bitcoin and economics if you're around 🦝
#note1804…n5ad

2024-09-04 10:19:53 CEST

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This is exactly correct! Being mindful of our wording is critical - saying "altcoin" is a form of endorsement for shitcoins.
#note1jd4…a5dk

2024-09-04 06:30:20 CEST

What is the Bitcoiner's "go to" VPN?

2024-08-28 21:00:37 CEST

Hello world!