james
James Lavish

reformed hedge fund manager | cfa | bitcoin | writes the 💡Informationist newsletter (www.jameslavish.com)

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Last Notes

2026-06-26 01:06:15 UTC

Good evening.
The Fed has a long and storied history of misreading the economy, and the markets have a long and storied history of misreading the Fed.
Have a great night.

2025-07-14 20:40:11 UTC

Thus far, Vanguard has 'protected' its clients from 160% gains since the Bitcoin spot ETFs were announced last year.

2025-06-29 10:00:11 UTC

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🫶

2025-06-21 17:26:31 UTC

Good morning.
As @jackmallers just said, “The future isn’t something we wait for, it’s something we build. Choose ethical money. Choose freedom.”
And have a great day.

2025-03-29 02:14:57 UTC

Good evening.
The thing about volatility is it provides opportunity. The thing about opportunity is you have to seize it. And seizing it requires conviction. Start there and work your way backwards.
Have a great weekend.

2025-03-18 02:45:23 UTC

Go ahead. Give the bank your money. See if they give it back. How many questions they ask. And how long it takes. Do it.
Dare you.

2025-03-16 02:01:44 UTC

Reverse sear. It’s the little things in life.
https://m.primal.net/PhSy.jpg

2025-03-04 00:33:32 UTC

Good evening.
Embrace the volatility.
And have a great night.

2025-02-21 23:10:21 UTC

Good afternoon.
Markets got hammered on worries about the economy, North Korea stole $1.4B of ETH from a massive exchange, and Bitcoin is *still* trading at $95K.
Have a great weekend.

2025-02-21 15:22:41 UTC

Good morning, Nostrs.
It’s a great day for Bitcoin $100K.
Have an awesome Friday.
https://m.primal.net/PFfo.jpg

2025-02-11 01:20:47 UTC

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No they’re too dumb. 🤣

2025-02-11 01:09:18 UTC

Some of the smartest institutions are already buying Bitcoin. They’re just being quiet about it.

2025-02-05 02:12:48 UTC

Bernie Madoff didn’t want to be audited either.

2025-02-05 02:11:52 UTC

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You’re right I need to Jeff! Thank you my friend I sincerely appreciate it.

2025-01-21 04:02:10 UTC

Remember: The US government needs Bitcoin far more than Bitcoin needs the US government.

2024-11-26 23:47:28 UTC

Remember: Pullbacks are normal and part of any healthy bull run, mere consolidation before resumption of extended strength and true price discovery.

2024-11-16 01:02:35 UTC

Of course #Bitcoin is going to $100K. And then $200K and $500K, and eventually $1M. I don’t know when, and I don’t know how much volatility we will see before each level. But I have no doubts about the ultimate direction of the price. And neither should you.

2024-10-11 01:39:05 UTC

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surrounded by trouble

2024-09-26 01:58:56 UTC

Good evening.
We are going to have an election. One of the candidates will take office. The government will continue to run massive deficits. The money supply will continue to expand. And #Bitcoin will go higher.
Have a great night.

2024-09-24 14:16:07 UTC

Good morning.
The US deficit is on pace to be $2.1 trillion in 2024, compared to a deficit of $1.7 trillion in 2023 and $1.4 trillion in 2022. That is $400 billion higher in a year, and $700 billion higher in two.
Have a great day.

2024-09-20 16:57:19 UTC

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👊

2024-09-20 16:57:11 UTC

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🫶

2024-09-20 16:57:02 UTC

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💯

2024-09-20 16:56:53 UTC

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🫶

2024-09-20 15:05:09 UTC

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truly

2024-09-20 15:04:09 UTC

gm nostrs
let your friday be as peaceful as this
https://m.primal.net/KvoI.jpg

2024-09-18 23:23:55 UTC

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Just getting started 👊

2024-09-18 21:55:15 UTC

The Fed just cut rates with entrenched inflation above 2.5%, the government is running multi-trillion dollar non-recessionary deficits, and a President just bought cheeseburgers using #Bitcoin. Welcome to the future.

2024-09-18 00:55:32 UTC

Powell, when asked about his reasoning behind the rate decision tomorrow:
“I come from a middle class family…”

2024-09-17 14:10:33 UTC

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I am imperfect 😉

2024-09-17 14:10:05 UTC

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🎯

2024-09-17 14:08:41 UTC

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😆🫶

2024-09-17 13:10:10 UTC

Good morning.
US debt now stands at $35.3 trillion. If we were to return to 0% interest and make payments of $1 million per hour, it would take approximately 4,023 years, or until the year 6,047, to bring the debt back down to zero.
Have a great day.

2024-09-16 23:32:53 UTC

With widespread and relentless propaganda-style mainstream media, understanding the political and financial landscape requires a higher level of critical thinking than ever before. Stay vigilant out there.

2024-09-16 02:41:36 UTC

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🙏

2024-09-16 02:41:19 UTC

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🤝

2024-09-16 02:41:10 UTC

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🫶

2024-09-16 00:45:04 UTC

Good evening.
Cheating, lying, stealing, killing, and more war is not the answer.
Have a good night.

2024-09-15 18:08:45 UTC

Good morning.
Kamala Harris received zero votes or delegates and was *chosen* as the Democratic Party nominee by the current government overlords instead.
Have a great day.

2024-09-13 21:54:01 UTC

Good evening.
In August, the US government took $307 billion in taxes and spent $687 billion, for a deficit of $380 billion. This works out to be an annualized deficit of $4.56 trillion.
Have an awesome weekend.

2024-09-11 23:35:50 UTC

Tether generated $5.2 billion in profit in the first half of 2024, and with 123 employees, this is an annualized profit of $85.5 million per employee. 🤯

2024-09-11 01:06:35 UTC

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🔥

2024-09-11 01:06:16 UTC

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🫶

2024-09-11 01:06:04 UTC

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✌️

2024-09-11 01:05:56 UTC

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🫶

2024-09-11 01:00:13 UTC

good evening nostrs
Montana river view
https://m.primal.net/KmVh.jpg

2024-09-10 16:05:49 UTC

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✌️

2024-09-10 16:05:31 UTC

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🫶

2024-09-09 23:05:57 UTC

good evening nostrs, view from the montana lake today
https://m.primal.net/KlSQ.jpg

2024-09-08 13:22:25 UTC

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😆

2024-09-08 06:33:00 UTC

Night nostrs ✌️
https://m.primal.net/KjIw.jpg

2024-09-07 16:52:43 UTC

Founder Mode is the default setting for #Bitcoiners.

2024-09-07 14:32:18 UTC

You all didn’t think we would go #Bitcoin parabolic without one more test, did you?

2024-09-07 03:04:20 UTC

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https://m.primal.net/KhdX.jpg

2024-09-07 02:55:25 UTC

Good evening.
There are two ways this economy can go, and both of them end in massive money printing.
Have a great weekend.

2024-09-06 22:18:08 UTC

It’s amazing how so many people are currently selling Bitcoin, and I’m pretty sure I do not know a single one of them.

2024-09-06 15:40:34 UTC

The government is currently the primary driver of job ‘growth’. This means the need for ongoing and expanded federal deficits, and federal deficits are inherently and long-term inflationary. This is how you manufacture a ‘soft landing’.

2024-09-06 02:23:22 UTC

Good evening.
In case you were confused by the title, The Inflation Reduction Act did not, in fact, reduce inflation.
Have a great night.

2024-09-06 01:50:02 UTC

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💯

2024-09-06 01:28:09 UTC

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🫶

2024-09-06 01:27:58 UTC

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🙏🫶

2024-09-06 01:11:29 UTC

You all are so far ahead of the Twitter curve. I’m explaining to someone about fractional banking over there. Normies are so sadly lost in this maze of financial repression.

2024-09-05 23:10:37 UTC

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🤝

2024-09-05 23:10:28 UTC

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writing about that in this week’s Informationist!

2024-09-05 23:09:13 UTC

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😆

2024-09-05 23:07:53 UTC

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crazy

2024-09-05 23:07:10 UTC

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🎯

2024-09-05 18:33:48 UTC

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✌️

2024-09-05 17:53:58 UTC

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😅

2024-09-05 17:53:49 UTC

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💯

2024-09-05 17:53:40 UTC

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🎯

2024-09-05 17:10:49 UTC

Hello.
The US government now pays over $3 billion of interest on its debt per day.
Have a great Thursday.

2024-09-05 14:52:46 UTC

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🤬

2024-09-05 14:52:18 UTC

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💯😆

2024-09-05 14:52:01 UTC

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the sphere did kind of explode into my horizon this year

2024-09-05 14:23:04 UTC

gm nostrs
California wildfires clouding the LV strip today.
https://m.primal.net/KfZl.jpg

2024-09-05 00:38:08 UTC

For everyone who is getting fatigued with Bitcoin’s recent price action:
Over the last decade, the average return in #Bitcoin for the top 10 days each year was 184%, and the average return (loss) for all of the remaining days each year was −10%.
Patience eventually pays off, big time.

2024-09-05 00:09:07 UTC

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🙏🙏✌️

2024-09-05 00:08:32 UTC

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maybe something around election time 😉✌️

2024-09-04 15:15:41 UTC

With this morning's JOLTs data showing that job openings are falling--well below estimates--and layoffs increasing, futures show a 47% chance of a 50bp rate cute in September, up from 37% yesterday. And bad news is once again 'good news' for the markets.
https://m.primal.net/KeBi.png

2024-09-04 01:43:48 UTC

Welp. Nikkei 225 down 3.7% and the usd/yen headed lower. Looks like we’re about to see just how much of that Yen Carry Trade is still out there.
https://m.primal.net/KdEn.jpg
https://m.primal.net/KdEp.jpg

2024-09-04 00:27:51 UTC

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2024-09-04 00:27:42 UTC

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Exactly

2024-09-04 00:27:28 UTC

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Credit card defaults in lower demographics foot with this.

2024-09-04 00:26:49 UTC

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It should yes. But could temporarily get hit in a market shock with everything else.

2024-09-04 00:26:11 UTC

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Not 25 to 50bps. No. Need to get to 3% pretty quick imo.

2024-09-03 23:56:30 UTC

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🫶

2024-09-03 23:52:58 UTC

Good evening nostrs. Keep your eyes on the horizon.
https://m.primal.net/Kcyi.jpg

2024-09-03 15:15:17 UTC

The market is reacting negatively this morning to extremely poor ISM manufacturing data.
Here’s the TLDR:
Demand fell, inventories rose (due to unsold stock), and prices *rose* (due to labor and shipping costs). In essence, this is stagflation (higher prices in a stagnant or slowing economy).
The Fed’s worst nightmare.
https://m.primal.net/KcSH.png

2024-09-02 16:40:57 UTC

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🤝

2024-09-02 16:40:48 UTC

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💯

2024-09-02 16:40:41 UTC

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🫶

2024-09-02 15:57:50 UTC

Good morning.
Once the world realizes that you don’t need a PhD or math degree to understand #Bitcoin, that you just need to open your mind and critically think, it will soon right itself.
Have a great Labor Day.

2024-09-01 20:15:08 UTC

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🫶

2024-09-01 15:40:06 UTC

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✌️

2024-09-01 15:39:51 UTC

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🫶

2024-09-01 15:22:07 UTC

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✌️