Toby McMann

Treasury companies are effectively closed end mutual funds. Most closed end mutual funds trade at a discount. So, agree, there needs to be more value than simply holding bitcoin -- if equity providers do not want to simply burn capital.

2026-07-20 19:32:42 UTC

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FFS. And this is supposed to make someone want to do business with OKX?

2026-07-16 10:57:14 UTC

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Is he predicting bitcoin goes to $10k? Unfortunate use of the word "when" I suspect.
He is a smart guy. But kinda robotic, and you get the feeling he is reading from a script in his brain sometimes -- versus being fully and emotionally centered, in the moment, with full conviction.

2026-07-15 18:23:37 UTC

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The petro dollar is dying. Major factors of the original deal had the Saudis agreeing to price oil in USD, in exchange for military protection. Now ships are rejecting and not confident in US military protection for shipping oil, so why price oil in USD?
#nevent1q…m5nr

2026-07-15 18:13:15 UTC

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FFS

2026-07-13 21:33:07 UTC

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I have notices there is an F Scott Fitzgerald-like longing for the unattainable in Oasis' and Noel's lyrics. There is recognition of something greater and better, but it is always slightly out of reach. Or is it me?

2026-07-13 17:29:23 UTC

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But dont worry, stablecoins will soak up all the reduced demand. Or, maybe not? All I know is the 10-year just keeps getting farther and farther from Bessent's target. 👀

2026-07-12 16:29:05 UTC

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Finding joy in the little things. Love it! Thanks for sharing.

2026-07-09 00:48:33 UTC

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Maybe I am misunderstanding, but I am not on X at all. Never have been. Nostr only, all the time.

2026-07-09 00:46:45 UTC

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I dont know what is more retarded: Being a retard, or arguing with one.
I will stick to Nostr only.

2026-07-05 13:38:42 UTC

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These speeches are aging very well, and are extraordinarily well done -- ie, by comparison, Trump's 2024 speech is simplistic at best. So probably not a surprise that the US' ability to push forward is slow and confused, even when the ruling elites need to do nothing more than listen to these talks, or go talk to their Secretary of Health and Human Services.
2023 speech: https://youtu.be/GXaQsYayDow?si=o-XSHASzu84-4RYy
2024 speech:
https://youtu.be/ssYCRVpzcxc?si=Oll0_7nd8M83WfLM

2026-07-05 01:36:57 UTC

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"Your support of Bitcoin puts you in the same category as the framers of the Constitution ... and you are the current manifestation of that impulse." -RFKjr, Bitcoin 2023
Happy 4th of July to all of our American friends on the 250th anniversary of the first signing of the Declaration of Independence, and Bitcoiners everywhere today who carry the same torch.
#freedom
#nevent1q…jksv

2026-07-03 00:57:10 UTC

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I hope you did peace. 🙏

2026-07-02 21:19:33 UTC

I love @nprofile…ymv7.
But, @nprofile…fg9w, I liked your "good morning" posts more. The PV vibe of inclusive community lifting a middle finger to the centralized world every morning, putting a smile on people's faces, reminding them of the good in the world, was spiritually superior. It drove your presence and brand to new heights.
Maybe you could spin up a bot to post a good morning vibe daily. And if it could also curate a music link, and maybe randomly scatter a few zaps to those that reply, ahh ... 🤌
I would bet that this bot will have e more followers than Citadel Wire, in no time -- which, if true, would show @nprofile…nj96 that he was wrong to encourage you to give up the GM posts in favor of news content.
Dont let Jack be right!
🙏

2026-07-02 10:31:46 UTC

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Thank you.
The smell of inflation!

2026-07-01 11:33:11 UTC

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I am thinking X might enjoy this story. And also that Nostr might enjoy your financial and macroeconomic insights.

2026-06-29 19:17:37 UTC

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Noise, not signal. Onward.

2026-06-18 23:13:13 UTC

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Yeah, I am agreeing with you. Be happy.

2026-06-18 20:22:40 UTC

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Saylor's strategy is built on an assumption of 30% CAGR. I hope he is right, but not how I think about things.

2026-06-18 18:55:41 UTC

Hope everyone is having a great day.
What is your most underrated band / musician over the last 30 years?

2026-06-18 11:23:44 UTC

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Imagine you were Nostr only and gave up and joined X when it got hard! 🤔

2026-06-16 23:31:30 UTC

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True, and Hilary should next look in the mirror. 👀

2026-06-16 18:39:52 UTC

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... but is he wrong here?
The US gets the Strait open and gives Iran its seized money back. And maybe there is some agreement to degrade the enriched uranium.
But Trump had Iranian agreement (to which, by all accounts, was not breached) to not build nuclear weapons before the attack. The strait was also open.
So, what has the US achieved ... beyond a ton of cost and destruction?

2026-06-16 18:34:06 UTC

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Can't wait until some shitcoiner floats a tracking token for Musk's net worth.
Hmm, maybe not a bad idea. Royalties can be zapped to this address.

2026-06-16 18:28:03 UTC

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https://blossom.primal.net/e9d505b86ec275e1867358497bcff203f81daadb4fcf2d3b7fe318f648e5e046.jpg

2026-06-14 16:46:13 UTC

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Again, feels like old man yelling at the clouds -- unfortunately.

2026-06-14 14:28:25 UTC

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Thank you. Very thought provoking and appreciated. Sorry for the delayed response.
Your thinking is next level. Mine is not. So I am learning and appreciate your patience. My understanding...
Derivatives on gold effectively increase the supply, putting downward pressure on price through rehypothication. In other words, paper gold and physical gold are treated as (near) perfect substitutes. I think this describes the situation?
I am not sure that investors in treasury company preferreds are treating them as substitutes to bitcoin. I think they are betting bitcoin's price will go up "enough" over time (and Strategy's holdings and ability to attract capital will remain sufficient) to keep the dividends coming, and ideally keep the preferred price near par.
Conversely, investors in Strategy common are largely betting bitcoin goes up a lot. Around Saylor's assumption of a 30% CAGR. With leverage provided by the converts and preferred, the common is a leveraged bet on bitcoin.
Strategy is not (yet) lending out its bitcoin. Its shares are not perfect substitues. So I dont see rehypothication from their activities. Instead, I see Strategy bringing capital to the network by facilitating an more granular alignment of risk appetite for various investors. That is the value that Saylor is creating. He is building Bitcoin's yield curve.
But, again, I dont see the value coming from rehypothication or increased supply from substitutes. I dont see a centralization of control from these activities. So I am not sure we will need a fork. Or the medium of exchange use case to solve the problem, etc.
But, again, I fully appreciate your thinking is beyond mine in many ways. Just thought I would be transparent, if it helps align our communities view of the situation and risks?

2026-06-14 12:29:15 UTC

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The treasury company model, at least in its current form -- loaded up with preferreds -- requires NGU, and by a lot.
Are you saying that, for the price to increase a lot, we need bitcoin to be used for payments?
The problem, I think, is medium of exchange will benefit from less volatility. But number go up (a lot) needs volatility.
So, do the treasury companies really want to push a medium of exchange narrative? I dont think so? 🤔

2026-06-12 10:07:23 UTC

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Saylor sells bitcoin.
ODELL is back on X.
Who can you trust?
At least we still have Nostr.
We still have bitcoin.
Trust the code.
Onward. 🫡
#nevent1q…hysg

2026-06-07 23:11:05 UTC

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I have no idea what yku are talking about. It sounds like an alcoholic saying they need a bar, and rehab, all at the same time.

2026-06-07 23:00:52 UTC

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Of course. The markets will be opening soon.

2026-06-07 22:58:50 UTC

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Agree. Are we are meant to believe the US has been calling for all the attacks from Israel, even after Trump told him to stop?

2026-06-07 10:57:15 UTC

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Life success results from the wisdom of knowing when you can control a situation, and when to let go of things which you cannot. Which is this?

2026-06-07 10:56:00 UTC

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Life success results from the wisdom of knowing when you can control a situation, and when to let go of things which you cannot. Which is this?

2026-06-05 21:07:26 UTC

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Trump be like, "You dumb fucks. If you were not paying attention, I control the Fed now. There is NO FUCKING WAY rates are going higher. And my son is buying Bitcoin like it is going out of style. Thanks for your attention to this matter."

2026-06-02 12:44:25 UTC

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Yup. The world is still learning, and making mistakes. Nothing we can do about others' poor decisions. Enjoy your day.

2026-05-31 16:07:13 UTC

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The 21 million question is Bitcoin's future CAGR which, of course, none of us know.
Saylor says he is operating under a 30% assumption -- so he is quite happy to pay the first 11.5% to those willing to invest their money with him. Same with Strive, etc.
They call it digital credit. Sounds fancy and cutting edge. But it is simply a bet on future CAGR.
For my taste, better to stay humble and stay out of the prediction markets. The future of bitcoin adoption, and why people buy it in the future, will be different from the past.

2026-05-31 14:00:46 UTC

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Haven't seen you on Nostr much. Hope you are well

2026-05-30 18:03:52 UTC

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"Nothing is as permanent as a temporary government program."

2026-05-28 17:00:18 UTC

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PS, I am not recommending any sort of violence!

2026-05-28 16:59:08 UTC

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Good thing we dont have any real or pressing problems, such that we can all spend our collective time on this topic.

2026-05-26 21:54:56 UTC

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Paper bitcoin.

2026-05-26 18:57:54 UTC

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Is this an advertisement? Investment advice?
Not sure you want to be encouraging people to take on (relatively expensive) debt.

2026-05-25 19:28:28 UTC

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Agree, the young are wise. Or, in the immortal words of Ernest Hemingway (in A Farewell to Arms) ...
“No, that is the great fallacy: the wisdom of old men. They do not grow wise. They grow careful.”
Get after it, whilst you are young!

2026-05-25 10:40:42 UTC

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If you love yourself,
You never despair.
You stand on your own two feet,
And embrace self care.

2026-05-25 10:36:19 UTC

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It strikes me that the break from X and its powerful network effect, and moving to Nostr, is not dissimilar from breaking from fiat and moving to a bitcoin standard.
Nostr and bitcoin are a hedge against the failing and unreliable centralized alternatives -- but not yet fully embraced, except for a few.
The beauty is, every time Natalie Brunell or Larry Lepard come on Nostr whining that they just got hacked or de-platformed, they are faced with the uncomfortable truth of their hypocrisy and centralized choices. Same for every day that goes by, and the value of the fiat held and used by folks goes down -- i.e. the truth is, lots of supposed freedom money folks are also having fun staying poor!
At some point, influencers will make the switch -- either because they decide to be leaders and be the change they (claim) they want to see, or the masses will move and expand the Overton window for them.
Ongoing education and unconditional love are the key. We cant force change. We can only be here to forgive and lovingly accept folks when they do make the switch ... and choose the light. Love is never forced.
#puravida

2026-05-25 10:11:51 UTC

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Reading the article, it doesnt sound like a peace deal is close -- and any deal struck will be fragile at best. Too many complicated and competing interests.

2026-05-23 19:50:21 UTC

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It is really unbelievable that Trump skipped the wedding.

2026-05-23 09:37:25 UTC

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The night is darkest just before the dawn.
https://blossom.primal.net/6ead26b49c0601ad6259052b908c5138968cdd46ef79a77859c56fa51be51d9a.png

2026-05-23 09:23:59 UTC

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Well done. Simple. Effective. Onward. Enjoy your day.

2026-05-23 01:23:10 UTC

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The US attacks. Oil spikes. Fear of recession allows the Fed to cut in mid June. After which, the US stops the attack, declares Hormuz open, and oil drops. The US gets lower rates, and lower oil. 🤔

2026-05-22 09:45:44 UTC

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Thank you.
"Are people actually interested in having sound money?” is, to me, a key question. I have felt (and argued) that bitcoin is a huge social experiment. Maybe the biggest of our time, playing out in real time, with social media offering a front row seat.
It is really, really hard for people to break from their tribes. Really hard. The perceived void created from being different is super scary to normies.
But the hard choice, and the uncertainty people need to overcome, is the beauty of bitcoin -- because it cant be forced. It is grassroots. People have to choose and seek it out, voluntarily.. In this way, it is like love itself ... and the cornerstone of life's ideal.
The Power Law crowd tell us that bitcoin has the escape velocity and sufficient adoption, such that it is on its way. I am still not totally convinced. But I also realize that my own skepticism might reveal the edge of my own capacity to think exponentially and at the edges of society.
In the meantime, I am grateful for the growth, friendships, learning, hope, and love bitcoin (and decentralized communication networks, generally) provide.
🙏

2026-05-21 19:33:48 UTC

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Weak and afraid people are small minded, and seek to control by saying false and stupid things merely to generate a response.
Ignore. Dont even post about it. Recall your post, because it is what they want.
Stay humble, stack sats. Onward.

2026-05-13 10:11:55 UTC

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Congratulations!!! So happy for you!!
It strikes me that you have made all your dreams come true, just being you.
Always be you. It will never steer you wrong.

2026-05-12 16:28:19 UTC

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https://blossom.primal.net/30074b3ec2212aa030ca5d82aac0aa7744e38336c4c2676f06f361bb9fa61116.jpg

2026-05-10 20:58:18 UTC

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Funny that BTC falls on the news.
PRO TIP: When Trump says he is close to a deal, it doesnt mean a deal is close.
We have seen this movie day after day, week after week, for months. Yet the markets still gyrate. Amazing.
If you want to know when the war is over, you will see the US Navy leaving the area.
Until then, it is all just theater.

2026-05-10 20:46:38 UTC

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Wait, I thought we are concerned about boiling the oceans? Where is Greenpeace when you need them? 🤣

2026-05-10 15:25:48 UTC

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It wont be free from government control until there is a tax exemption. So it might be a long time yet ....

2026-05-10 00:03:50 UTC

Currencies that win are those which are the unit of account for scarce commodities.

2026-05-09 22:47:16 UTC

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I think this disappointment is a bit naive.
No CFO is going to take self custodial risk. Corporations want to be able to sue someone if it goes wrong.
They value their jobs, and the corporate mission is not to use shareholder money to advance "freedom tech."
Those that want freedom tech and self sovereignty should be happy if corporate adoption raises awareness and price.
Full stop. Stay humble....

2026-05-06 04:36:14 UTC

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Funny how so-called freedom and decentralized protocol advocates come to Nostr when their beloved walled garden fails them. Then, like an abusive relationship, go right back to it and continue the toxic cycle.
We cant help you, Natalie. Only you can help you. I fear it will get worse before it gets better, but us Nostr-only folks pray for you -- and those like you.

2026-05-03 14:29:46 UTC

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This might be the dumbest marketing strategy ever. Sorry. Yes, Bitcoin and safety are needed. But he basically calls the French poor, 3rd world and small. Not exactly how they view themselves, or like to view themselves (however true). Tick tock, next block! 🤣

2026-05-03 14:22:49 UTC

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Kamala is Exhibit A: "It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt."

2026-04-26 13:52:30 UTC

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Sorry -- just trying to understand, are you saying that AI does not benefit from network effect? Because I think it does. No?

2026-04-26 13:49:40 UTC

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Awakening does not occur until you realize that you are part of the problem, and also then that you are the solution! ❤️
#nevent1q…09vp

2026-04-26 10:56:28 UTC

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Feels like your ego is hurt. I would suggest that you stop judging yourself by likes/views on YouTube, etc. Instead, prepare videos and live your life for the love of it -- unconditionally.
When your work reflects your true self, authentically, you will gain satisfaction and fulfillment -- no matter what. Then, you will have happiness. You will be alive. Not a slave to others, or whether they "like or subscribe" or not.

2026-04-23 13:22:22 UTC

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I am surprised to see the concern over USD/JPY. It is around 159, which is elevated but not unprecedented or extraordinary. Maybe against the backdrop of an energy crises the signal is fear it cant be contained at this level? 👀

2026-04-18 21:02:55 UTC

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It is really just how people fill the void from a love deficit.
Do you fill it with short-term, quick hitting, unhealthy substitutes -- like drugs, sex, shopping, gambling?
Do you fill the void with self-love and long-term fulfillment -- including spirituality?
Do you fill it with work and escapism (which is arguably just a less addictive version of the short term, unhealthy, unfulfilled behavior).
The good news: There is always hope!

2026-04-16 10:53:16 UTC

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"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt."

2026-04-10 16:30:59 UTC

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By reset, does he mean stagflation?

2026-04-10 12:57:34 UTC

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We are all Freaks -- even countries needing to get oil through the Straight of Hormuz.
Huh, guess bitcoin isnt just for drug dealers and porn after all?
😂💯
#nevent1q…vx6u

2026-04-09 23:55:22 UTC

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Sad that Trump apparently doesnt have more important things to do?

2026-04-08 16:30:39 UTC

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If Trump cant control Israel, Iran will not abide by the terms of the ceasefire.
This is Netanyahu's war, until such a time the Trump tells Israel US funding and protection stops if they do not heel.

2026-04-08 11:40:37 UTC

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Hi Carla. You have a big heart, and a beautiful mind. You are blessed. Take it day by day, moment by moment. You have everything that you need! Let go of the rest. You are loved.

2026-04-06 14:50:40 UTC

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Everyone is always just doing the best that they can, even when it isnt good enough! 😊

2026-04-03 20:44:03 UTC

Human action is often defined by trust.
When the US weaponizes the USD by kicking Russia off SWIFT, etc (something it had never done previously in any conflict), the US erodes trust.
When the US invades and and kills school children without any clear mission, trust is lost.
When Iran weaponizes Hormuz, something never done prior, trust is lost.
When Trump threatens to bomb civilian electric generation, and Iran says water infrastructure and nuclear facilities are similarly in play, both war crimes, trust is lost.
When trust is lost, the world becomes smaller and more expensive. Trade suffers. Standard of living goes down. People suffer. And folks lean into things they can trust. Where do people turn? What can they trust?
Community. Family. Nature. God. Even pets. Etc. Tech will bring such folks together.
But monetarily, from a big macro and societal/governmental perspective, how do societies trade when trust is lost? For energy needs, what do people trust? Those going through an energy crisis currently, how do you pivot?
I think the answers to these questions is your investment thesis -- ie, the "trust trade" for your time and energy.
No right answer. All value is subjective. Protect your individual sovereignty, frens.

2026-04-03 20:09:11 UTC

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Why is Nostr not formal?
PRO TIP: Nostr is what you make of it.
If you treat it like a dumping ground solely worthy of your "less formal" ideas, that is what it will become (for you).
For others, however, it is freedom and pure vida.

2026-04-02 19:52:34 UTC

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Thou doth protest too much! 🤣

2026-04-01 09:25:27 UTC

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I find that Citadel Wire is now my go to, first stop news source. Crazy, right? It even substitutes me checking BTC and gold price on finance websites. Info that is valuable, and I would miss otherwise. 🙏

2026-03-30 19:15:38 UTC

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Well, that is a great strategy -- "I just stick my head in the sand" and dont dwell on my failures. 👀🤔

2026-03-30 19:14:15 UTC

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How about the Fed doing something soon! Powell acts like the victim, when he is playing a huge part in the problem.

2026-03-30 19:10:40 UTC

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Always?

2026-03-30 19:10:03 UTC

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I thought the objective was regime change. And, kinda tough to accomplish the goal of degrading missile systems, etc, if we are in a ceasefire. Huh? Why the ceasefire if the US wont stop until the mission is complete, and requires more fighting, and they want things to end quickly. What am I missing? I dont get it. All the while more and more troops are sent to the arena. Why are they needed?

2026-03-29 13:50:55 UTC

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Sorry, meant 2007(!) ... not 2008 above! 👀

2026-03-29 13:38:19 UTC

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When the subprime housing crises first started in early-to-mid 2008, people also said the risk of contagion was low. But, it turns out loose standards did not just apply to subprime. The same issues that first revealed themselves in subprime were systemic throughout the system.
Fast forward to 2026, do we really think that loose standards are contained to just private credit? Or was leverage and cheap money plentiful throughout the banking system and, like subprime, private credit (together with bitcoin!) is the canary in the coal mine and signal through the noise?
Time will tell, but not sure I would be allocating to the banking sector currently thinking it is strong....🤔

2026-03-29 13:11:07 UTC

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Also surprising is when self-proclaimed bitcoiners, who know self sovereignty and decentralized systems are the solution, donate their time and energy to walled gardens. 🤔

2026-03-29 10:21:07 UTC

Hello, plebs. I am so grateful for you in any and every form. You are loved without condition, just for being you. I wish you peace and happiness. And I hope the day's beauty and blessings fill your soul, warm your heart, tickle your brain, and set your face aglow with easy laughter. Enjoy your day. 💯

2026-03-29 10:18:12 UTC

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This picture proves that there is always hope, if you just keep working towards your dreams (and choose to never use a permanent marker -- literally or figuratively)! 😊🙏

2026-03-28 14:51:34 UTC

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Choose Nostr only! 👀💯👍

2026-03-28 10:50:18 UTC

PRO TIP: Do not take advice from anyone who told people to take the COVID vaccine.

2026-03-27 20:09:38 UTC

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Maybe they should use the $10M to improve security. 🤔

2026-03-27 18:24:40 UTC

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I hope they can put the toothpaste back in the tube.

2026-03-27 18:22:07 UTC

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Fuckers

2026-03-27 12:30:34 UTC

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The Clarity Act doesnt mean shit if no one trusts in the future.

2026-03-26 16:40:39 UTC

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Just wait ... Saylor would love to generate yield too!

2026-03-26 14:18:21 UTC

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Bhutan needs to buy more diesel for electricity during its hydro off-season from October to March. Most of this diesel comes from a refinery in India, who has diverse sources around the globe but meaningful reliance on the Middle East and Russia.

2026-03-25 19:50:40 UTC

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When do we see the 10-year at 8%?

2026-03-25 19:49:20 UTC

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These social media companies are the modern day equivalent of cigarette manufacturers.

2026-03-25 19:47:14 UTC

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If the government wanted to remove fraud and abuse, it could.
Instead, Nick Shirley is knocking on doors.
Why is that, you think?