S2Underground

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Last Notes

2026-07-18 00:23:42 CEST

Hey everyone, kind of an odd one today. I had a spur of the moment thought this morning and decided that what I was going to say in tomorrow's Intel Update, would be best served as a dedicated podcast/video. I did not want to bog down the more informational content with a full-blown rant segment, so I recorded this separately. Link below! https://youtu.be/q41OaKuR4Bs

2026-07-03 20:07:48 CEST

//The Wire//1800Z July 3, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI'S FUNERAL BEGINS IN TEHRAN. IMMOLATION INCIDENT REPORTED IN NEW YORK. DHS REPORTS CYBERATTACK AFFECTING INFORMATION EXCHANGE NETWORK.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Iran: This week, the official state funeral for Ayatollah Khamenei began, which has drawn large crowds to Tehran. Khamenei's remains will lie in state in Tehran for three days, before a funeral procession is carried out through the streets of Tehran. On July 7, the body is scheduled to be transported to the city of Qom, before various ceremonies are carried out and he's finally buried in his hometown of Mashhad.
Analyst Comment: As nearly all of the upper echelons of Iran's political leadership will be participating in some of these ceremonies, concerns are growing that the Israelis will attempt another series of decapitation strikes during the funeral. Striking the Ayatollah's coffin during the funeral procession just to send a message would also be right up the IDF's alley, but the question remains as to whether the IDF can even manage such an operation so far into Iran at this point. This possibility is pure speculation, however due to the potential for a very serious conflagration to occur once again, this would be worth keeping an eye on for the next few days.
On a related note, a surge of several tankers was observed in the Strait of Hormuz, taking advantage of the southern Omani route while the Ayatollah's funeral is ongoing. These vessels were probably gambling on the Iranians not wanting to carry out strikes during a period of mourning, while a lot of the senior decision makers are occupied with traveling to Tehran for the funeral. This clever trick is probably a one-time thing, as the Iranians have demonstrated in the past that they will allow this for a couple of days, before they start striking vessels again.
-HomeFront-
New York: Yesterday evening an immolation incident was reported at the United Nations building, after a protester set himself on fire during a livestream at the main entrance on United Nations Plaza. The individual has been identified as Lobga Rangzen, an activist affiliated with the Tibetan independence movement. Rangzen was eventually extinguished by building security, but later died at an area hospital.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Yesterday, the Department of Homeland Security announced an investigation into an alleged breach and/or cyberattack on their Homeland Security Information Network, an information sharing network for coordinating between various federal agencies. The breach reportedly involved an older unclassified computer system, and was only discovered recently after occurring back in May. This is a developing story at the time of this report, and so far the main primary sources of this breach are two unidentified whistleblowers who leaked the story to the mainstream media. Following this leak, the DHS quietly confirmed that the breach did take place, but no further comment has been made regarding the national security implications of this incident, or who the culprit was.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-06-23 02:23:10 CEST

//The Wire//2300Z June 22, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TERRORIST ATTACK REPORTED IN MONTREAL AS SHOOTER CONDUCTS MULTIPLE ENGAGEMENTS THROUGHOUT RESIDENTIAL NEIGHBORHOOD. KEIR STARMER RESIGNS AS PRIME MINISTER. SITUATION IN LEBANON REMAINS TENUOUS AS ISRAELIS REFUSE TO HALT ATTACKS. STABBING ATTACK REPORTED IN SCOTLAND.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Qatar: Last night an industrial accident was reported at one of the main natural gas terminals in Ras Laffan, which was in the process of being restarted to resume production after the war. The Qataris claim that this was not the direct result of combat action, however the incident killed a total of 13x people, and injured roughly 50x others.
United Kingdom: This morning Keir Starmer resigned as Prime Minister. This resignation is not immediate, and is expected to result in some form of leadership contest later on.
Analyst Comment: Andy Burnham is likely to be his replacement, but this process will take a few months to develop as the formalized party efforts to select their new PM continue over the next few weeks.
Scotland: Over the weekend a stabbing attack was reported in Edinburgh. One assailant attempted to conduct a stabbing on Lieth Walk, near a row of shops and businesses. Initial reports claimed that a total of 5x people were wounded during this attack, but this remains unconfirmed at this time.
Analyst Comment: Due to the nature of the attack, the media coverage has been extensive, although very few details are known regarding how the attack began. Of note, several photos appearing to be AI-generated have circulated following this attack, so it is challenging to determine which photos are real and which are "AI-enhanced". More details will undoubtedly come in due time, which may clarify what actually happened.
Canada: This afternoon a shooting was reported in Montreal, as one assailant attempted to conduct a mass shooting in the vicinity of the Côte-des-Neiges neighborhood. One gunman equipped with an SKS-type rifle and web gear, began the attack by engaging police along one of the streets of this community. Eventually, this skirmish transitioned to the Westbury Supermarche PA at the north end of Av. de Courtrai, with the shooter taking up a position inside the supermarket. As police advanced on this location and began breaching the supermarket, the shooter egressed two blocks to the southwest, where the shooter made contact with the police cordon at the corner of Av. de Courtrai and Decarie Boulevard. At this location, a close-range small arms engagement broke out between the shooter and two officers, which resulted in one officer being killed in action. During the fray, the other officer accidentally shot a bystander, who was attempting to seek cover from the shooter. After shooting the civilian, the officer broke contact and maneuvered to a different position away from the shooter, and in doing so was shot in the back. A few moments later, the shooter was neutralized by other officers who were maneuvering south down Courtrai avenue, from the grocery store.
Analyst Comment: The circumstances of how the shooting began are unclear. The initial footage of the incident begins at the grocery store, however SWAT was already chasing someone on foot in the residential neighborhood several blocks to the east of the shooting site. Also, the only victims of the shooting so far appear to be the officer that was shot by the suspect, and the civilian that was erroneously shot by police. The reasoning for why police (and especially tactical units such as SWAT) were already on the scene is possibly due to the shooter sending his manifesto to media groups before the attack began. More details are expected overnight as the shooter's identity and the sequence of events become more clear.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, the status of the tentative peace deal remains uncertain, but in Switzerland, the talks appear to be continuing to some degree. The Iranian delegation did walk out after President Trump threatened to kill them during a phone interview with Fox News. Specifically President Trump threatened to kidnap/kill the negotiating team if Iran closes the Strait again in response to Israeli advances in Lebanon. Upon these remarks being broadcast, the Iranian delegation walked out of a photo op that had been planned with VP Vance, although they did not completely halt the talks.
Concerning Lebanon, PM Netanyahu has stated many times that Israeli forces will not depart Lebanon, and over the weekend the IDF continued to consolidate the gains made so far. No withdrawal of the IDF has been noted in any way, which is a non-starter the peace process, but the reason for this is probably not just about politics and attempting to assert dominance.
The tactical situation on the ground is not great and the sudden signature of the MOU (ahead of schedule) appears to have caught the IDF in a predicament. If the IDF were to halt their forward progress right now, they would be at a military disadvantage as they mostly occupy the low terrain in Tabieh, northward along the Litani River basin. The IDF has just barely gotten a foothold on the northwestern side of the Litani, infamously capturing the historic Beaufort Castle last week, which serves as the only real tactically-advantageous terrain along this eastern front. As a result, the IDF knows that they will get pounded by Hezbollah's rockets if they stay where they are, especially since they have overextended themselves to the point that a salient (or bulge in the lines) has emerged, exposing this spearhead to attacks from three sides. This vulnerability has been noted by the attack on the armored armored column a few days ago, which was advancing north in Nabatiyeh.
The IDF could of course always resolve their disadvantage in terrain by stopping their invasion of Lebanon and withdrawing to their own borders, but this is absolutely not going to happen at this point. What's far more likely is for the IDF to continue pushing until they fully seize and consolidate the high ground east of Et Taher. From there, they will be able to look down on the collection of towns that make up the greater Nabatieh area. How this will work out is anybody's guess, as the IDF is not exactly accustomed to fighting ground advances of several miles from their own borders with a serious and well-equipped adversary like Hezbollah. Bottom line: The situation in Lebanon is messy and very unlikely to be resolved anytime soon due to the military situation on the ground. As Lebanon is a central focus point for the US/Iran deal, the proverbial 'rock' has met the typical 'hard place' and this is going to be a problem for the deal moving forward.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-06-13 01:26:36 CEST

//The Wire//2300Z June 12, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: BELFAST RIOTS CONTINUE. MASS SHOOTING REPORTED IN TEXAS. RHETORIC AND DIPLOMATIC TENSIONS REMAIN AS TALK OF POTENTIAL SETTLEMENT CONTINUES REGARDING WAR IN MIDDLE EAST.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Last night, Iranian state media released some details of the alleged Memorandum of Understanding which is allegedly being considered by Iran and the United States. 40 minutes after the opening bell on Wall Street this morning, President Trump announced on social media that the terms of the alleged Memorandum of Understanding as leaked by the Iranians are not what has been discussed privately. No details were provided on what items were disputed.
Scotland: Yesterday, Ilia Belov and Nadjedzha Belov were both convicted of "threatening or abusing behavior" toward four girls who were at the center of a major scandal last year. As it turns out, the initial claims made by the legendary Hatchet-Girl were true; this brother-sister team were attempting to target the girls, and when they resisted being attacked, the Belov family called the police and complained of racism. This prompted the now-viral video recording by which the girls defended themselves with knives and hatchets. This court case confirmed that the girls were telling the truth about being assaulted, as CCTV footage which exonerated them was initially ignored by Police Scotland, but was uncovered during the trial.
-HomeFront-
Texas: This afternoon an active shooter incident was reported in Midland after unknown circumstances resulted in a protracted firefight on West Wall Street. Local authorities first announced the situation as a barricaded shooter incident, as an individual began firing at passersby from a structure near an old veterinary clinic. Around a dozen people were wounded in some manner during shooting, and the shooter was killed at the scene. The suspect has been identified as Victor Mata Villarreal.
Analyst Comment: The circumstances of this shooting are sketchy at best. The area is not a crowded venue that is the normal target for mass shooters, and the exact location of the shooting has not yet been disclosed. It's possible that the shooter was concealed in a fighting position inside the abandoned veterinary clinic, and was shooting at passing cars on the highway, however this is pure speculation based on the geolocation of videos taken at the scene. Some reports claim that Villarreal was a Mexican national with a visa-overstay, but this is not confirmed at this time.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, rhetoric on all sides has continued overnight, and parsing all of the latest developments is challenging due to many contradictions flying around. As of this report, some sort of Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is allegedly ready to be signed on Sunday. This MOU is reportedly not a peace deal, but a formalization of the ceasefire that was supposed to be implemented this entire time. These types of documents are fairly standard in the world of diplomacy as it's generally a waste of time to send diplomats around the world to engage in talks, if neither side is at least in the ballpark when it comes to what they might accept. An MOU being signed is a step toward peace, but it's not a peace deal itself. So far, the United States has not been entirely forthcoming regarding the details, but as of early this morning, President Trump has refuted the plan that the Iranians have leaked. However, in the absence of any clarification or details of the plan being disclosed, we have to go off of what the Iranians are claiming for now.
The grand question remains...what's on the table for negotiations? First and foremost, the alleged MOU results in a 60-day extension of the alleged ceasefire, which is a period of time that will be used to work toward a final deal.
Mostly, the MOU includes the 14-point plan that is very similar to what's already been discussed. The nuclear issue is allegedly not being addressed in this memorandum and Iran's missile program is completely off the table altogether. The Iranians would open the Strait, but retain control of it. Funds that have been frozen by the United States would be released to the Iranians, and the status of the long-standing array of sanctions would be worked out during the 60-day extension period.
As far as what the United States will get in return, it does not seem like much, which is probably why President Trump denied the details of this leak this morning. The Strait of Hormuz being opened to allow American and other western-aligned vessels through would be the only real bone for the United States, but there is also talk of including some of the "magic dirt" (allegedly radioactive debris from the Midnight Hammer strikes), though this has not been clarified as of yet. It's almost certain that the neither the U.S. nor Israel would accept this deal as it stands, but until the US reveals what they claim their terms are, all of the rhetoric of the past few days leaves the situation exactly as it's been for months.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-06-10 02:14:23 CEST

//The Wire//2300Z June 9, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ATTEMPTED BEHEADING REPORTED IN IRELAND, RIOTS UNDERWAY. U.S. ARMY HELICOPTER SHOT DOWN IN GULF OF OMAN. KARMELO ANTHONY FOUND GUILTY OF MURDER.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Overnight one U.S. Army AH-64 helicopter crashed feet-wet off the coast of Oman. Both the pilot and the co-pilot/gunner managed to egress from the aircraft, and were rescued two hours after the crash. At the time of the crash, CENTCOM did not disclose the reason for the incident, however this afternoon President Trump confirmed that this aircraft was shot down by Iranian forces.
Analyst Comment: Two hours in the water is a long time in terms of Combat Search and Rescue, and it's a miracle that they were rescued. Of note, some sources are claiming that the rescue method for the downed aviators took the form of an unusual source...an American Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV). If this is true (which we may never know), this would be the first instance of an American drone boat being used for rescue operations in a combat zone.
Northern Ireland: Yesterday evening an extremely graphic beheading attempt was reported on a residential street in Belfast. One Sudanese national attacked a local, gouging out his eyes with a knife and attempting to behead him. The exceptionally brutal attack was captured on tape, and the video circulated widely in the moments after the attack. The status of the victim remains unclear, but he is receiving medical care for his many wounds. The victim has not been identified by name, however he's reportedly from Scotland and also hard-of-hearing, leaving him more vulnerable to the attack.
Analyst Comment: The attacker was initially hospitalized at The Mater, the main hospital in Belfast. It is unclear as to if the attacker is still physically located at this site, but he was spotted in the hospital by local intelligence networks as he was being given a medical exam post-incident. The suspect is most likely being held at the Musgrave Custody Suite on Victoria Street, which is one of the more protected sites in Belfast and can hold high-security detainees. Despite the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) not charging this individual under terrorism charges, there's a very high likelihood that the attacker would not survive the first night once other detainees found out what he did. The assailant was granted asylum status as a refugee a few years ago, though the exact nature of this legal status is not entirely clear.
-HomeFront-
Texas: This afternoon Karmello Anthony was found guilty of the murder Austin Metcalf. So far limited protest activity has been observed outside the courthouse.
Analyst Comment: No big mobilizations or riots have been observed yet, however more significant efforts might take some time to organize as it's only a Tuesday. Too soon to tell if this is going to become a hot state of unrest, but seeing as tension has been building on this for a while, it could go either way. The next big decision point will be sentencing, which will be decided soon by the same jury.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As one might expect, the situation in Northern Ireland has reached a boiling point. Mass riots are already underway as of this report (and likely planned for the next few weeks), as the Irish begin to organize and mobilize. Tonight, local paramilitary groups have requested all residents of Belfast to turn off their doorbell cameras, and PSNI checkpoints are already established around the city preparing for the events of the next few days.
Concerning the site of the mutilation, the location of the attempted beheading has been host to violence before. This exact apartment building has been the site of violent murders in the past. In 2019, two bodies were found brutally murdered inside Kinnaird Close, with the trial for the murderer concluding a couple of years ago.
Of note, the attack yesterday evening was halted by Irishmen who intervened to attempt to stop the murder. Matthew McKiernan (Gaelic spelling: Maitiu Mág Tighearnán) has been identified as the man who clubbed the African with a hurley stick, attempting to stop the attack. He and other pedestrians did what they could, but by the time they were able to intervene, exceptionally grave wounds had already been sustained by the victim. They did their best, but there was only so much they could do as taking care of the problem was not a viable option as police were seconds away from the scene and would have absolutely arrested citizens for continuing the counterattack on the African after they arrived.
Nevertheless, the entire city of Belfast is calling for blood right now, and tonight they might just get it. For historical context, this brutal attack took place in one of the most contentious districts on Earth. Belfast was one of the epicenters of the Troubles in Northern Ireland, and the northwest quadrant of the city is still host to many "peace lines" to this very day. Granted, most of the old maps designating the Catholic/Nationalist/Republican (CNR) areas from the Protestant/Ulster/Loyalist (PUL) areas of the city are a bit outdated and not as strictly delineated in real life as it is marked on the map sometimes. Plus, the old history of political ideology, infamous organizations, and current political leadership is incredibly complicated. In short, neither side can rightfully point the finger at the other on this issue, because elements on both sides have resulted in furthering mass migration into Ireland.
On the ground, this attack took place in a strong CNR community, right along a historic dividing line, so multiple communities have a vested interest in handling the situation. Even before sunset this evening communities which have quite literally killed each other over dividing lines, are at least beginning to acknowledge the seriousness of the current migration situation, while also acknowledging that singing songs and holding hands is still unlikely between Protestants and Catholics in many of these communities. Though the situation is incredibly complicated, when it comes to beheadings in the streets, the seriousness of the situation is stratifying along bigger lines than the history of the region. At his core, an Irishman is an Irishman, regardless of affiliation, and much like most of Western Civilization, the unofficial national sports are drinking, fighting, and blowing stuff up. As a result, there are solutions to these problems, if attention on all sides can be focused appropriately. There may indeed be more room for slight-cooperation between age-old factions which might have the chance to re-examine what lines of division are worth postponing for a time, as more pressing threats are already inside the fence....threats which are neither Catholic nor Protestant.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-06-03 19:51:41 CEST

//The Wire//1800Z June 3, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TARGETING EFFORTS INCREASE THROUGHOUT MIDDLE EAST AS U.S. TARGETS QESHM ISLAND, AND IRANIAN MISSILES AND DRONES STRIKE BAHRAIN AND KUWAIT. HOSTAGE SITUATION CONCLUDES AT BANK IN CALIFORNIA. TWO NIH EMPLOYEES ARRESTED AFTER ATTEMPTING TO SMUGGLE MONKEYPOX INTO THE USA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Overnight the war continued to expand with multiple strikes reported throughout the region. Following the now-daily American airstrikes on Qeshm Island, the Iranians retaliated by launching multiple ballistic missiles targeting locations in Kuwait and Bahrain. CENTCOM claimed that none of the missiles impacted their targets, however Kuwait International Airport was directly hit by at least one large munition (possibly a Shahed-type drone). The main terminal was heavily damaged, and a total of 63x individuals were wounded during this attack. Additionally, locals in residential areas to the north claim that Camp Buehring was also hit by a ballistic missile, though satellite imagery is still pending to confirm this.
Separately, multiple munition impacts were reported in Bahrain though the details of these strikes remain less certain than in Kuwait. Some reports claim that Sakhir Air Base was hit, however this is not confirmed at this time.
-HomeFront-
California: Yesterday a hostage situation was reported in Bakersfield after a man entered Chase Bank on 17th Street with what he claimed was an explosive device. The man claimed to have wired an explosive vest with a deadman switch, and took a total of 5x hostages inside the bank. The individual has been identified as Anthony Scott Searle-Sharris, who conducted this incident for personal reasons, claiming that he was wrongfully convicted of previous crimes (crimes against children). The hostage situation continued throughout the night, before the suspect was neutralized this morning by an FBI sniper team. All hostages have been recovered in good health.
Michigan: Two researchers for the National Institute of Health (NIH) were arrested in Detroit, after attempting to smuggle monkeypox into the United States. Vincent Munster (from the Netherlands) and Claude Kwe (from Cameroon) were arrested after a search of their belongings at customs revealed chilled storage for 113 vials which contained Monkeypox along with other pathogens.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As a reminder, the information lockdown is palpable throughout the Middle East, so details are hard to verify. What is absolutely undeniable at this point, is that authorities throughout the region, to include CENTCOM, are posting very misleading "fact checks" which are carefully worded by attorneys to leave out critical details. In some cases, outright lies are being told to conceal the success of Iranian strikes. This has been the case since the start of the war, and it's extremely common for various entities to lie during a time of war, which is sometimes necessary to ensure mission success. If CENTCOM wants to conceal the success of strikes for operational security purposes that's their business, but we can't pretend that this is not happening.
As luck would have it, the Sentinel 2 open-source imagery satellite passed over Camp Ali Al Salem a few hours after the missile attacks. Comparing the imagery taken today, with yesterday's pass, a discernable impact can be noted at one of the aircraft hangers on the airfield. As always, the Iranians already know about the success of their own strikes as the Iranians secretly purchased the Chinese TEE-01B satellite, which grants them their own imagery for Battle Damage Assessments (in addition to the wealth of intelligence support being provided by Russia and China). As a result, concealing the details of American bases getting hit is hiding the truth from exactly one audience...the American taxpayer.
Around the region, the locals within GCC states are first hand observers to the strikes, even though most Arab nations are arresting their own citizens for posting videos of failed interceptions in order to keep the illusion going that air defenses are working. One such individual was arrested last night in Kuwait after posting a viral video while driving on the highway. While it is speculative, it's possible that the reason this individual was arrested is because it was easy to identify him due to the motor vehicle accident that also occurred at the same time and thus made the video go viral, but also because his video appears to show failed interceptions...several of the Patriot missiles fired at the incoming Iranian missiles appear to have missed and exhibited the telltale self-destruct phase of their flight path. It's a classic Middle Eastern shakey-cam situation, but the Kuwaitis are very motivated to conceal the true effects of Iranian targeting efforts and the impact craters observed throughout the country this morning add credence to the failed interceptions.
This challenging information environment would be very wise to remember as the "good news" posts of impending peace saturate social media and mainstream media constantly at this point. The truth of the situation on the ground indicates that strikes on Iranian targets (specifically at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island) are now daily occurrences, and the slow ramp-up to the collapse of the ceasefire has already been underway for several days.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-05-31 04:11:34 CEST

This week's intel update is out! This week, the stagnation in the Middle East has given way at times to renewed targeting efforts, while a potential expansion of the Gulf War looms. Here at home, riot season is well underway, with the situation in Newark being a good barometer for how unrest might pop up in other areas if so desired. Link: https://youtu.be/or8riChFbGQ

2026-05-20 02:58:16 CEST

//The Wire//2300Z May 19, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DETAILS EMERGE REGARDING YESTERDAYS SHOOTING IN CALIFORNIA. TENSIONS INCREASE IN IRELAND FOLLOWING DEATH OF CONGOLESE NATIONAL. WAR POTENTIAL IN MIDDLE EAST REMAINS AS ALL PARTIES CONTINUE PREPARING FOR CONFLICT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Ireland: Tensions have increased sharply following the death of a Congolese man on Friday. Yves Sakila died while resisting arrest, after he shoplifted from a local store and broke an elderly man's leg. This death has resulted in a mobilization of the Congolese population of Dublin, with mass protests planned for tonight and the next few days.
Analyst Comment: It's too soon to tell, but many locals are saying this is Dublin's version of George Floyd in terms of civil unrest and the large Congolese population in Ireland. Roving bands of Congolese gangs commonly cause problems within Dublin, and since local tensions were already boiling before this, clashes are likely if the Congolese decide to escalate the situation.
Middle East: The potential for a resumption of the war remains on the table, as rhetoric on all sides continues to escalate. The creation and streamlining of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (the Iranian organization that has claimed administrative control of the Strait) has continued to be of cause for concern for western-aligned vessels. The handful of ships that are transiting the Strait are sailing with their transponders turned off, and so far all vessels have transited with Iranian approval. This afternoon, President Trump stated that he was only one hour away from ordering the resumption of the fighting yesterday. He also stated that the fighting may resume in a few days regardless, and all parties around the region remain ready for the ceasefire to come to an end.
-HomeFront-
Alabama: Yesterday a suspect was arrested in conjunction with a missing person investigation in Northport. Two weeks ago, Karen Deann Hollis was reported missing, after concerned family members failed to locate her. On Saturday, her remains were located at an undisclosed location in Greene County. At the scene, authorities arrested Randall Lendell Dejourney on charges of abusing human remains for 8 days. He is being held in jail on a $15,000 cash bond and no murder charges have been filed.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Few details have come to light regarding yesterday's shooting at the San Diego Islamic Center, however the suspects have been identified as Cain Clark and Caleb Vazquez. The two shooters attempted to conduct a mass shooting at the facility, and began the attack by killing the security guard at the front entry point of the building. After making entrance to the facility, the suspects killed two more people, before re-entering their vehicle and driving a short distance from the facility. Both suspects were found deceased inside the vehicle with self-inflicted gunshot wounds.
Concerning the suspects themselves, the very few details that have emerged indicate this was very likely the standard transgender shooting. Both suspects were of questionable status, though both appear to have been born male. Slogans and statements were written on the firearms with a white paint pen, which has become a staggeringly common calling card of most trans-affiliated mass shootings (as the shooters often try to copy previous attacks). Both attackers appear to have been Hispanic, but also used symbols from political movements that would not have approved of their lifestyle choices, which is another hallmark of such attacks as well.
No official link to the Order of Nine Angles (O9A) or the 764 Network has been made, however this would be wise to investigate as this shooting is nearly identical to all prior O9A/764 mass murders from years past. The attackers also allegedly livestreaming the attack fits with many other similar attacks as well.
Of note, another bit of amplifying information might be helpful for factoring in to risk assessments. Five days ago, a nationwide shortage of Progesterone was reported. Among many other more traditional uses, this medication is used by transgender individuals to level out mood changes during their process. More strategically, this could be nothing or it could be something. There's no indication at all that the two shooters in California were affected by this drug, and there is no evidence linking this attack to any drug shortage as drug shortages happen all of the time for varying reasons. However, copycat incidents are an extreme risk in the wake of attacks like this, and a drug which is intended to affect mood changes among this population is in short supply. Again, this might be a loose correlation at best, but it's worth being aware of when trying to calculate the risk of future copycat attacks.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-05-17 03:11:51 CEST

This week's intel update is out, quite a spicy week with a lot of tensions continuing to rise all around. From supply shortages and violence in the homeland, to cultural clashes overseas, it's shaping up to be a rather busy summer. Link: https://youtu.be/DeO5WEaw2ns

2026-05-14 00:39:05 CEST

//The Wire//2300Z May 13, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UNREST CONTINUES IN EUROPE REGARDING MIGRANT CRISIS. KUWAIT ALLEGEDLY CAPTURES IRANIAN INFILTRATION TEAM ON THEIR BORDER. TRUMP ARRIVES IN CHINA FOR STATE VISIT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Netherlands: Yesterday afternoon tensions were elevated in Loosdrecht, following the settlement of migrants in the local area. An asylum center was emplaced at the old city hall in Wijdemeren against the will of local citizens, who turned out in number to protest the arrival of the first migrants. After migrants began taunting locals and making threats toward them through the fence, locals tossed lit road flares into the compound, which set the shrubbery on fire.
Far East: President Trump arrived in Beijing this morning for the diplomatic state visit with Xi Jinping. The main focus of the trip is expected to be technology and business ventures, as a large collection of tech CEOs and entrepreneurs form a large part of the Presidential delegation.
Middle East: Yesterday Kuwait claimed to have foiled an infiltration attempt by IRGC forces into their country, allegedly detaining a fireteam of four Iranian soldiers who were attempting to cross onto Bubiyan Island.
Analyst Comment: Not many details have been provided regarding this incident, however for context, this island was used by the United States to launch HIMARs strikes within Iran during the height of the fighting two months ago.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Within the United States, the energy crisis continues to develop. On Monday, the Department of Energy announced emergency efforts to combat the rising costs of fuel. 53 million barrels of oil is to be released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over the next few weeks, as the Middle East remains at war. Additionally, the White House has floated the idea of a federal gas tax holiday, which would reduce gas prices for customers nationwide by $0.18 per gallon for regular unleaded, and $0.24 for diesel. So far, several states have also temporarily halted their own statewide taxes on gasoline, though this has varied by state.
More strategically, these measures are unlikely to matter much at all in the long run, and are purely band-aid solutions to mitigate a problem without addressing the main concern. Removing taxes, while appreciated by most, cannot conjure up supply when when a major trade route is cut off and there is no viable alternative. And right now the growing problem is availability, as global stockpiles of petroleum, oil, and lubricants begin to be impacted more seriously.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-05-13 00:53:52 CEST

//The Wire//2300Z May 12, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DETAILS COME TO LIGHT REGARDING YESTERDAY'S FIREFIGHT IN CAMBRIDGE. GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS GROWS AS MISHAPS AND INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS CONTINUE TO IMPACT REFINERIES. CALIFORNIA MAYOR PLEADS GUILTY TO SERVING AS A CHINESE AGENT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
United Kingdom: Over the past few weeks, Prime Minister Starmer has faced growing calls for his resignation, with a total of 90 Labour MPs now openly requesting his resignation. Following the political tensions of the morning, more resignations have taken place, with Shadow Minister for Domestic Violence and Safeguarding Jess Phillips and Under-Secretary of State for Health Innovation and Safety Zubir Ahmed both resigning their posts this morning.
Analyst Comment: This tidal wave of dissent from within Starmer's own party is probably a knee-jerk reaction to the devastating election losses over the past few days, in which his political opponents gained significant ground in Parliament. Many Britons have begun to dump the Labour Party for alternate choices due to the social, political, economic, and immigration issues being at a breaking point. PM Starmer has vowed to not step down for the time being, but the political situation remains in the balance as pressure on Starmer's government mounts.
Mexico: Overnight a large fire was reported at the Salina Cruz Refinery in Oaxaca. Pemex officials have stated that the fire began inside a cooling tower at the Hidros 2 plant, which was in the process of being brought online to increase production at the facility. The fire was brought under control and extinguished after a few hours, and 6x workers at the refinery were injured as a result of the blaze.
-HomeFront-
Oklahoma: Yesterday afternoon an explosion was reported at the HF Sinclair Refinery in west Tulsa. The facility was able to contain the spread of the fire, and firefighters extinguished the fire after a few hours. The cause of the incident is not known as the investigation into the incident continues.
California: Yesterday the mayor of Arcadia resigned after accepting a deal with the Department of Justice to plead guilty to serving as an unregistered Chinese agent. Mayor Eileen Wang admitted to serving the interests of the Chinese Communist Party, specifically with regards to promoting propaganda efforts directly from the Chinese government. According to the documents provided by the DoJ, Wang was in direct communication with high-ranking Chinese officials and was taking direct orders from leadership in Beijing regarding political decisions that were made by her office. Wang is expected to formally accept the plea deal within the next few weeks.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Yesterday's mass shooter in Cambridge has been identified as Tyler E. Brown, a resident of Boston. Brown has a long criminal history, and has displayed violent intent (just for the sake of violence) for many years. The latest example of this history includes a previous incident that took place under nearly identical circumstances. In 2020, Brown engaged in a shootout with police in Boston in a similar manner to yesterday's skirmish. During that incident six years ago, Brown began harassing and threatening random people on Northampton Street, before engaging police in a gun battle in the street. Brown was eventually wounded and detained, after attempting to kill everyone in his immediate vicinity. In the news articles from that 2020 shooting, Boston Police Commissioner William Gross was quoted as criticizing local judges for letting people like this out of jail and giving them a slap on the wrist, as even in 2020, Brown had been given light sentences for his previous crimes.
Nevertheless, Brown was sentenced to only 5 years of prison time by Suffolk Superior Court Judge Janet Sanders, who rejected the recommended 10-12 year sentence for the 8 counts of assault and battery with a firearm (while he was already on probation for other crimes). Immediately after being released, Brown continued to display violent intent and began to plan yesterday's shooting.
Follow-on details regarding this case also confirm that this was not a random or spontaneous attack. Over the past few days, Brown had failed to meet with his parole officer, and had posted content on social media threatening police with a firearm. The morning of the shooting, police officers in Boston were issued his photo during their shift change briefings due to the security risks that emerged following his release. Local authorities also state that his cellphone was pinging in Cambridge before the attack, indicating that police were reasonably sure of his intent to conduct an attack, so much so that his cellphone was actively being monitored. Nevertheless, Brown evaded confrontation with police until the shootout began on Memorial Drive, which was possibly conducted in order to draw out a police response. Of note, police were not the only parties to engage the suspect; a citizen with a concealed carry firearm also returned fire toward the suspect during the protracted firefight which lasted several minutes. Brown was wounded during the attack, though due to the engagement ranges during the incident, it's not clear who hit him or what his status is. The two bystanders shot by Brown remain in critical condition at an area hospital.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-05-12 00:44:05 CEST

//The Wire//2300Z May 11, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MASS SHOOTING REPORTED IN CAMBRIDGE. DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS TO END THE UKRAINE WAR CONTINUE. NO CHANGE TO SITUATION IN MIDDLE EAST.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Following the Victory Day ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, increased focus has been placed on ending the war. During the various VE Day celebrations and speeches, President Putin stated that he is willing to hold direct negotiations with Ukraine's Zelenskyy to seek a direct settlement to the war.
Analyst Comment: Until a document is signed by all parties, this is just talk. However, this is the first time that Putin has indicated that he is willing to directly engage with Ukrainian leadership regarding a peace deal. The next stage would be for more direct talks to be scheduled at some point, now that the very basic starting point of negotiations seem to be within the realm of reason by both sides. Time will tell, though.
-HomeFront-
Massachusetts: This afternoon a shooting was reported in Cambridge near the intersection of River Street and Memorial Drive. One suspect (who has not yet been identified) reportedly engaged passing cars with a rifle, targeting vehicles seemingly at random. The suspect was eventually engaged by police, which resulted in a small skirmish in the street. Eventually, the suspect was either apprehended or neutralized by police, bringing an end to the attack. During the engagement, two individuals were reportedly wounded, though this is a developing situation at the time of this report and details are hard to verify. More information is expected to follow this evening.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The situation in the Middle East remains largely unchanged over the past 48 hours. Targeting efforts on all sides remain challenging to geolocate, as all belligerents are waging lower-level warfare and pretending as if munitions are not being exchanged. Merchant vessels (transiting the Strait either inbound or outbound) continue to be attacked by the Iranians, and the United States continues to strike Iranian gunboats sporadically. Overnight, one vessel was struck by unidentified projectile off the coast of Qatar, marking the first targeting effort this far from the Strait in a month, reminding the world that the entire Persian Gulf is an active warzone, not just the Strait itself. Within mainland Iran, explosions have been reported throughout the country over the weekend, from Qeshm Island, to the old reactor complex in Arak. Locals often don't provide much context for the incidents they observe, and counting exact engagements and munitions is very challenging due to many of these engagements also taking place on the high seas. However over the past few days a handful of targeting efforts have taken place, possibly as many as a couple of dozen incidents all total.
More strategically, the hard to predict nature of the conflict has kept most western-aligned merchant traffic from attempting the transit. The only way for a merchant to clear the Strait without getting targeted by the Iranians, is to follow the Iranian instructions for passage. And if a merchant does just that, there's no guarantee that the Americans will allow them through their blockade anyway. The end result is prolonging the conflict, fuel prices climbing higher, with no talks or diplomatic efforts yielding any results.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-05-10 01:38:48 CEST

This week's intel update is out! A very interesting week in the Middle East has resulted in no diplomatic settlement on the horizon, and oil prices rising steadily. Around the world a dozen different smaller wars rage on, and here at home crime continues to rise, along with prices at the pump. Link: https://youtu.be/u5y0bJ4ORiQ

2026-05-09 01:40:00 CEST

//The Wire//2300Z May 08, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UNITED ARAB EMIRATES CONDUCTS STRIKES IN IRAN, IRANIAN RETALIATION STRIKES TARGET DUBAI AND SHIPPING IN THE STRAIT. USA INCREASES TARGETING AND INTERDICTION OPERATIONS IN THE GULF OF OMAN. MAJOR FIRE REPORTED AT REFINERY IN LOUISIANA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Overnight, multiple targeting efforts took place in the Strait of Hormuz. The United Arab Emirates conducted multiple airstrikes in Iran, targeting facilities on Qeshm Island as well as the port of Bandar Abbas. This attack was reportedly conducted in conjunction with the United States (or with some US support), and resulted in Iranian counterattacks on the UAE as several drones and missile attacks were reported in Dubai. Officials did not state how many munitions hit their targets, however "3 moderate injuries" were reported on the ground in the UAE as a result of this first wave of attacks.
As the fighting continued throughout the night, the UAE traded bombs and missiles with Iran for a few hours, and several merchant ships in the Strait were also struck. American warships struck a total of three merchant vessels throughout the region (possibly to include in the Strait itself) overnight, all of which were empty tanker vessels attempting to run the American blockade to onload a cargo of oil from Iranian ports. Similarly, the Iranians also reportedly hit several merchant vessels, though which ones remain unknown at the moment.
After the shooting subsided in the early hours of this morning, the Iranians seized a tanker in the Gulf of Oman. The M/T *OCEAN KOI* (IMO: 9255933) was boarded by the IRGCN for allegedly "taking advantage of regional conditions to damage and disrupt Iran’s oil exports and the interests of the Iranian nation".
Analyst Comment: It's not clear as to why this vessel was boarded, as this is one of Iran's own shadow tankers which has been on the sanctions list for many years, and has previously helped export Iran's oil in violation of international sanctions. Her most recent name is the M/V *JIN LI* and last night she was inbound to the Persian Gulf to take on a cargo of Iranian oil at Iran's own ports. At the moment, the best guess is that the Iranians might have discovered that the oil was going to an unauthorized end customer and thus conducted the boarding. However it's also possible that during the events of the night, the Iranians needed to assert dominance, so they took the only ship that was within their reach, which happened to be one of their own.
-HomeFront-
Louisiana: This afternoon a major fire was reported at the PBF Chalmette Refinery. The cause of the fire has not been released, and as of this report firefighters are attempting to bring the fire under control. This facility is a comparatively smaller refinery that produces almost 200,000 bbl/d and in 2021, $550 million was invested in this facility to covert an older unit to produce diesel.
Analyst Comment: Fires at refineries are more common than one might think, but this is the second fire at a refinery in the same area in a week's time. A few miles to the west, Shell reported a fire at their Norco facility last week, which was the result of a gas leak.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: At this point, it is hard to argue that the ceasefire is still in effect in the Middle East, but that definition probably doesn't matter at this point. Over the past 48 hours, multiple offensive actions have taken place throughout the region. Nevertheless, as CJCS Gen. Caine said yesterday, these attacks are "below the threshold" for the United States to consider the ceasefire violated. The effect of this policy is two-fold: For one, gas prices don't spike by admitting the war is back on, and two, Oman and the UAE (the nations getting hit by the Iranians) are rather slighted by attacks on their homeland not being considered serious enough to warrant US intervention. From the perspective of the Emirs, their entire motivation for siding with the US and allowing the use of their territory...is for their own defense. Their oil terminals (the only reason for their wealth), getting hit by the Iranians, and the US saying that this is not important enough for us to even acknowledge it as a ceasefire violation (much less retaliate), is not going over super well, and was probably the motivating factor for the UAE conducting strikes in Iran overnight.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-05-03 00:34:41 CEST

This week's intel update is out! This week we take a look at the stagnation in the Middle East and the strategic implications of this crisis continuing, as well as the increase of crime both at home and overseas, as our friends across the pond work through increased tension and terrorism concerns. Link: https://youtu.be/IigNmlmxmOg

2026-05-02 02:00:44 CEST

//The Wire//2300Z May 01, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MASS STABBING REPORTED AT SCHOOL IN TACOMA. FUEL CRISIS DEEPENS AS WAR IN PERSIAN GULF CONTINUES. PIRACY ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST. MAY DAY PROTESTS CAUSE DISRUPTIONS THROUGHOUT UNITED STATES.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: This morning piracy activity continued, with one containership reporting a suspicious approach in the Gulf of Aden. No successful boarding was reported, however this is the first reported piracy attempt to take place in the Gulf of Aden since the war in the Persian Gulf started.
-HomeFront-
Washington: Yesterday afternoon a mass stabbing was reported at Foss High School in Tacoma. 6x individuals were wounded after one student conducted a stabbing attack at the school.
Analyst Comment: Local authorities have been extremely tight-lipped regarding the cause of this attack. It's not clear as to if this is a standard gang-fight-turned-stabbing, or if this was a more deliberate terror attack.
Washington D.C. - This afternoon the White House sent a letter to Congress stating that hostilities against Iran have "terminated" and therefore the obligations of the War Powers Resolution are not relevant to the current conflict.
Analyst Comment: Regarding this Resolution, under most common interpretations of the law, a President has 60 days to either ask Congress to declare war, or request an extension of an overseas conflict. This 60-day deadline came into effect yesterday, and this afternoon the White House has taken the official position that due to the ceasefire, no Congressional action is required, even if the Strait of Hormuz is closed and no peace agreement is signed. This doesn't mean much, as hostilities can recommence at any moment, and this is mostly a way of the White House skirting Congress by arguing that if the war is paused for a period of time, the clock restarts.
USA: Around the nation, various May Day protests were carried out in most major cities with varying levels of attendance. Most of the demonstrations were fairly low intensity, with the most kinetic events taking place at the New York Stock Exchange as activists attempted to rush the entrance and chain themselves to something. They did not succeed and most of the more active riots/demonstrations throughout the country resolved after a few sporadic scuffles.
Analyst Comment: As of this report demonstrations are still ongoing, so more active incidents could develop as night falls. This afternoon, at least one activist has climbed the Frederick Douglass Memorial Bridge in Washington D.C. and set up a tent, so other similar encampment operations may be planned for the weekend in various high-profile locations around the country.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Around the world, the fuel crisis continues to compound, with costs rising substantially for some industries. Due to the rising costs of aviation fuel, Japan Airlines and Japan Transocean Air have instituted a flat-rate $350 surcharge on ALL tickets for flights from Japan to most of the the world. This measure was intended only for the month of June, but has been extended to go into effect today, for the month of May. So far, Europe has been hit the hardest by the fuel crisis, with prices and sheer availability itself being a challenge throughout the continent, which has also manifested itself even more unusually due to the lack of a centralized way to determine how much time is left before fuel runs out. Two days ago, one energy official was quoted in a Politico article, stating that by and large, Europe doesn't actually know how much time they have left, because there's no real way to know how much fuel is being stockpiled by the dozens of nations throughout the continent. Some places may run out within days, other nations and regions might never run out, it's impossible to know at the strategic level.
Aviation fuel is the canary in the coal mine, because it's a much more precious resource to Europe, with most jet fuel being refined in the Middle East and imported to Europe, but other petroleum distillates will be impacted in wild and unpredictable ways for as long as the war lasts simply due to supply and demand. Demand remains the same, and a good chunk of the global fuel supply is simply cut off. While that supply is restricted, the clock is ticking, and demand must either decrease or alternative sources for petroleum must be found. Simple arithmetic indicates that neither is likely to happen anytime soon, so this might come to a head within the next few weeks, especially when it comes to commercial aviation.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-04-04 02:50:16 CEST

//The Wire//2300Z April 3, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PERSONNEL SHAKEUPS CONTINUE AT PENTAGON. AMERICAN AIRCRAFT SHOT DOWN DEEP BEHIND ENEMY LINES IN IRAN, SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS ONGOING. ANOTHER AMERICAN AIRCRAFT DOWNED IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ, PILOT RECOVERED.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The war continues to grow in scope and severity every day. Last night Iranian forces conducted multiple strikes throughout the region, with the most significant strikes targeting the Mina al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait. The UAE also experienced a surge of attacks throughout the day, with a total of 47x drones and 22x missiles being engaged by Emirati air defenses.
Iran: This morning a shootdown incident was reported within Khuzestan Province, after an American F-15 was successfully engaged by Iranian air defense systems. Photos of the crash site and one ACES II ejection seat recovered from the scene circulated on social media throughout the day, along with videos of American Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) teams maneuvering into the area to secure the downed pilots. As of this evening, the status of the pilot and weapons officer is not confirmed, and two HH-60W helicopters were damaged by effective ground fire during the rescue operation earlier this morning.
Separately, another aircraft was reportedly shot down near the Strait of Hormuz, with locals reporting shooting down an American A-10 this afternoon. Fewer details are present regarding this incident, however mainstream media is reporting that the pilot of this aircraft was recovered successfully.
In addition to the two shootdowns, two other aircraft were observed squawking emergencies on their transponders throughout the region. An F-16 along the Iraqi border and a KC-135 departing Tel Aviv both had their transponders switched to 7700 (the universal emergency mode) earlier today, though there aren't any indicators of what caused either emergency.
Analyst Comment: Officially, neither shootdown within Iran has not been acknowledged yet, which is expected as rescue operations are ongoing. CENTCOM has stated that all American aircraft are accounted for, which does not address the issue as technically an aircraft that was shot down is indeed "accounted for".
Strait of Hormuz: Maritime traffic is beginning to increase for non-Western-aligned vessels, which have been transiting the strait regularly through the Larak tollbooth arrangement.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - The mass firings at the Pentagon have continued, as several more military commanders were fired last night. So far, the full list of military commanders fired over the past 24 hours is as follows:
General Randy George - Chief of Staff of the United States Army
General David Hodne - Commanding General, U.S. Army Transformation and Training Command (TRADOC)
Major General William Green Jr. - Chief of Chaplains of the United States Army
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Concerning the sweeping changes throughout the upper echelons of military leadership within the United States, differing theories are emerging regarding what is going on, all of which carry some weight. At a minimum, it would be very telling for any nation to replace high-level military leaders during a time of war. Among the services themselves, firing military leadership for a variety of reasons is fairly common, so it's not surprising that President Trump fired his Chief of the Army. It is purely the timing of all of this that is interesting.
As a result of these rather interesting firings, many have been quick to attribute some sort of motive or scandal to such personnel shifts, which cannot be confirmed at this time. We don't know, what we don't know, but this many personnel shifts at the height of the most high-stakes war the US has fought in 20 years can't be ignored. We cannot know what took place behind closed doors, but we can glean some information from the replacements. General George, for example, is currently being replaced by former Vice Chief of Staff General Chris LaNeve for the time being. General LaNeve is the expeditionary solution for the Army, having most recently (and most notably) lead the 82nd Airborne Division, which he served in multiple times throughout his career before eventually commanding the unit back in 2023. Considering the daily escalations of events in CENTCOM and the forward deployment of the 82nd Airborne right now, it is very likely that these personnel shifts are related to the operational vision that is desired as the war continues.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-04-01 02:28:06 CEST

//The Wire//2300Z March 31, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: STARLINK SATELLITE EXPERIENCES "ANOMALY" IN ORBIT. FPV DRONE ATTACKS REPORTED AT RUSSIAN BASE IN MALI. WAR IN MIDDLE EAST INTENSIFIES WITH INCREASE OF AMERICAN BOMBING AND IRANIAN DRONE ATTACKS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Several escalations occurred overnight, with substantial strikes being reported throughout the region. Satellite imagery indicates that the strikes within Iran have increased in scope, though most of the targeting efforts remain concentrated in the western part of the country. Last night American forces struck an ammo dump in Isfahan, which resulted in significant secondary explosions at the site. This strike supplements many other strikes throughout the area, which have destroyed most of the military infrastructure throughout Isfahan.
In the Persian Gulf itself, Iranian targeting of merchant vessels continued overnight, as two ships reported being targeted. The M/T *AL SALMI* was struck by an Iranian drone, sustaining damage from the subsequent fire that broke out on board after the strike. Another unidentified vessel reported a close-call, with an unidentified munition landing in the water close to the vessel.
Pacific: Yesterday the Marshall Islands declared a state of emergency for at least the next 90 days, due to fuel shortages caused by the reduction of petroleum production in the Middle East and with travel through the Strait of Hormuz being restricted. President Heine signed the declaration yesterday, and various committees have been formed to determine what steps to take as the war continues.
Mali: This morning a local insurgent group posted a video claiming credit for a drone attack on a military outpost in the remote town of Anefis. The Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) is a small insurgent group that has been waging war in the region for a while, with combat operations intensifying over the past few weeks.
Analyst Comment: While a couple of FPV drone strikes are mostly insignificant on the battlefield, this does indicate that even in the most far-flung regions of the earth, drone warfare is becoming a concern that even large nationstates continue to struggle with. For instance, the site struck by FLA yesterday was also allegedly being used by Russian advisors, and this is the second instance in about a week of FLA militants using munitions attached to FPV drones to carry out attacks.
-HomeFront-
USA: Starlink announced a malfunction with one of their satellites, with the satellite experiencing some level of breakup in orbit. Satellite imagery from a craft with a higher orbit captured the satellite in orbit, which indicates it's still mostly intact even though hundreds of particles have been detected separating from this platform. The cause of the malfunction has not yet been disclosed, with this incident only being described as an "anomaly".
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Indications and warnings are growing that the intensification of the war in Iran might be what is colloquially known in the targeting world as Shaping Fires, in other words blowing up a lot of stuff in preparation for a future objective. Since the start of the war, the United States has been working through a High Payoff Target List (HPTL), which is basically a list of targets arranged by which ones should be struck first. In an air war, the targets at the top of the list are usually missile defense sites, radar arrays, or any other targets which might be more important to take out first. As time goes on, eventually lower-priority targets can be struck.
However, in going through this process, the world eventually finds out what targets were on that list. And right now, a month after the war began, the targets that are being struck are probably an indicator of what is being planned for. As an example, the US completely leveled the entire headquarters for the 33rd and the 44th Artillery Groups, which included dozens of impact craters being observed on satellite imagery in the boneyard of old artillery pieces that have been in this same location since the Iran-Iraq War. These field artillery units, while certainly valid military targets in a declared state of Armed Conflict, aren't exactly a high priority for meeting the strategic objectives conveyed by the White House. These artillery pieces, however, would have been of great use for defending against forces on the ground.
As at least one Brigade Combat Team (BCT) from the 82nd Airborne arrives in CENTCOM to supplement the two MEU's already on station, many are speculating on the potential for a US ground invasion of Iran. This is debatable to the point that many people believe such a possibility is unthinkable, and the rhetoric of the war winding down any day now has been a constant factor for consideration. However, this rhetoric is not reflected by the raw information available at the present moment concerning the situation on the ground. Operations so far indicate that if a ground invasion were on the menu, the targets that are being struck right now are the exact sites that would need to be struck for any ground combat element to have any chance of success at all. Nevertheless, aside from the forward deployment of troops to the region, many more boxes must be checked before any ground operation would be feasible.
Most military doctrine dictates that "the defensive form of warfare is stronger than the offense" (Clausewitz), which makes the task ahead much more difficult since the most effective way to conduct littoral operations in a contested environment is to effectively disrupt the enemy's kill-chain (i.e. their own manner of identifying and prosecuting their own targets) BEFORE operations are conducted within the enemy's weapons engagement zone (WEZ). Conducting operations within the WEZ is an expectation of the Marine forces currently deployed, as this mission set is their bread and butter. However, at this point, that kill-chain has not been disrupted to a sufficient degree, and Iranian forces routinely conduct over-the-horizon targeting capability. So in short, it may be some time before even the most basic ground operation will be feasible under current military doctrine. However, the textbook can always be disregarded at any point, and decision-makers are going to do whatever they so choose.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-03-31 02:20:10 CEST

//The Wire//2300Z March 30, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: STRATEGIC CONCERNS REMAIN AS WAR IN MIDDLE EAST HIGHLIGHTS AMERICAN VULNERABILITIES. HOUTHIS JOIN THE WAR WITH MISSILE ATTACKS ON ISRAEL.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The situation continues to deteriorate as Iranian attacks throughout the region have become vastly more effective over the past few days. Iranian targeting of locations in Israel has continued to increase, with multiple targets being struck over the weekend. The refinery in Haifa was struck yesterday afternoon, which resulted in a fire at the facility. Separately, a factory was hit in the industrial zone in Neot Havov, which also resulted in a fire. American bases in Kuwait were also hit overnight, with Iranian missiles targeting barracks facilities.
Red Sea: Over the weekend, the Houthis entered the war, firing one cruise missile toward Israel.
Analyst Comment: The Houthi's have chosen a soft-start to the war, and the missile that was fired was reportedly intercepted. Nevertheless, this is an indication that another front has been opened up, and since the *FORD* CSG is no longer in the Red Sea (due to moving off-station for repairs), missile defense in the region is less effective at the precise moment that the Houthis are entering the war.
Saudi Arabia: Following a series of Iranian airstrikes, several strategic American aircraft were destroyed at Prince Sultan Air Base. Several KC-135 refueling tankers were destroyed, along with at least one E-3 Sentry AWACS early warning aircraft. Concerning casualties, official casualty figures were classified at the beginning of the war, however the Pentagon reports approximately 10x US service members were wounded during this attack.
Jerusalem: Controversy has continued throughout the Old City as Israeli forces continue to inflame tensions with Christians throughout the region. Yesterday, Israeli police disrupted Palm Sunday proceedings as Cardinal Pizzaballa of the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem was prevented from attending the procession at the Church of the Holy Sepulcher.
Analyst Comment: This incident was so deliberate that even Mike Huckabee spoke out against it, calling the incident "unfortunate overreach". Considering Huckabee's infamy on this issue at this point, combined with the historical record (and the biblical context), it's a helpful barometer to gauge how serious of an incident this was, which increases tensions at a time when the stakes are already quite high around the region.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The successful Iranian strike at Prince Sultan Air Base was very significant for many reasons. For one, taking out major American assets is a big deal, and the loss of EW aircraft will degrade American capabilities. The most obvious question is why these aircraft were being staged within Iranian missile range in the first place. The answer to this will be debatable: maybe military leadership knew the danger and decided that the risk was worth it, or maybe they got cocky and ignored the risk. There's no way to know right now, but it is not a great look for the US Air Force to put these airframes well within striking range of the Iranians. For context, the B-52's which are conducting bombing raids in Iran are mostly being launched all the way from England, simply due to the risk of housing them closer to the fight. However, when it comes to some aircraft, we gave the Iranians clean access to "Tanker Row", which allowed them to destroy several strategic aircraft on the ground.
This small detail, while not particularly groundbreaking, also serves as a reminder for how complicated wars can be. Nothing is as simple as the textbook says it will be, and in wartime everything gets vastly more difficult. Vulnerabilities also increase because when things get complicated, the stakes are higher, and the room for error is substantially reduced. One early warning aircraft getting struck on the ground is one radar dish out of the fight...an airspace sector that will need to be filled by another asset.
This idea also applies to life on the American homefront as well. One ship failing to make it's run through the Strait of Hormuz can swing world markets wildly, because there's a lot riding on that one ship. On any given day, there is some elasticity with world markets, and the petroleum sector is a good example of that due to the ramp-up/ramp-down of petroleum production which takes some time. But at some point, with a major global choke point out of the picture, there's no telling how things will work out as the effects of two major wars on two continents (Europe and the Middle East) come to bear.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-03-29 03:30:03 CEST

This week's intel update is out! This week we take a look at how the multiple wars are going on overseas; from Scandinavia to Indochina, things are heating up as the Ukraine and Persian Gulf wars complicate life for most of us here at home. Link: https://youtu.be/ShvEdsULxpw

2026-03-27 23:38:17 CET

//The Wire//2300Z March 27, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: GULF WAR CONTINUES AS SHIPPING COMPANIES MAKE DEALS WITH IRAN. WAR IN LEBANON REMAINS INTENSE AS IDF NEARS LITANI ON THE EASTERN FRONT. AIRSTRIKES REPORTED AT TWO IRANIAN URANIUM PRODUCTION FACILITIES.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Offensive actions and targeting efforts by all sides were temporarily degraded last night as a major storm system descended on the region. A supercell storm system similar to a cyclone descended on the UAE last night, with severe flooding and high winds being reported throughout Dubai.
After the weather cleared, major Iranian targeting efforts were reported throughout the region. Port facilitates were struck in Kuwait, and a large fire was observed at the parking apron used by American aircraft at Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia, with the smoke plume being visible on Sentinel satellite imagery from this morning.
Iran: This morning American/Israeli forces struck multiple nuclear production facilities. The Arak Heavy Water Facility (which was struck years ago) was struck again this morning, and the Yellowcake Refinery in Ardakan was also struck.
Analyst Comment: The risk of radiological release at either facility is low, as Arak was not functional and Ardakan was not host to enriched Uranium itself. However, monitoring will continue as radioactive dust is likely to contaminate the local area to some degree, and time will tell how these threats develop as the strikes continue.
Lebanon: Israeli forces continue their advance north toward the Litani River, as FPV drone attacks by Hezbollah become more significant. Two drone attacks on Israeli armored columns were reported last night, along the eastern axis of advance. Israeli forces along the eastern front have made the most progress toward the river, with IDF units being observed in the town of Taybeh this morning.
Analyst Comment: Hezbollah's media group claims that a total of 21 Merkava tanks have been destroyed so far this campaign, however as always these numbers are usually overinflated. Concerning tank casualties, it's incredibly difficult to tell from a video clip if a vehicle was actually penetrated or not, and most of the clips provided by Hezbollah conveniently cut away before the tank's Trophy countermeasure system is activated. This means that counting destroyed/disabled tanks is mostly a wash. However, from the clips and reports on the ground, this is not an easy fight for the Israelis either. Anti-Tank Guided Missile attacks are a mainstay of Hezbollah, and these attacks have been effective in making the Israeli advance more costly than expected.
-HomeFront-
Iowa: Last night a major egg farm burned down in Corwith. The Hawkeye Pride egg production facility caught fire shortly after 6:00pm yesterday evening, which resulted in significant damage to the egg farm. Hawkeye Pride is one of the largest cage-free egg producers in the United States, and the extent of the damage to the henhouses has not yet been determined.
California: Yesterday evening a blackout was reported in Orange County, mostly affecting the areas of Carlsbad and Encinitas, as well as areas south of Escondido. The cause of the electrical outage has not yet been reported, but services were mostly restored for many customers by sunrise.
Florida: Following up on the recent IED threat to MacDill Air Force Base, two individuals have been identified as the culprits of the attack. Ann Mary Zheng and her brother Alen Zheng (both Chinese nationals) have been indicted on charges of emplacing the IED at the visitor's center on March 10th before it was discovered by authorities on March 16th. Mary Zheng was arrested on Wednesday after returning to the United States, while her brother remains in China.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Many nationstates have made their deals with the Iranians to allow their shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, however due to the complex nature of a war being undertaken throughout the region, it's still a tenuous journey for commercial companies. Cargo is beginning to flow to China, Japan, and India but the volume of shipping through the Strait remains severely below normal levels. Iranian targeting efforts have proven to be effective, and vessels are not transiting the Strait at all, without prior coordination with Iranian officials, which schedule vessels to transit to Larak Island for inspection, before continuing through the Strait.
At the current rate, the handful of ships that make it through each day are not nearly enough to stop very serious things from happening. Complex systems are beginning to be impacted quite significantly now that the war in the Middle East (and the subsequent halt to maritime traffic throughout the region) has been going on for one month. Diesel rationing is well underway in some parts of Australia, and limited unrest has been reported throughout Southeast Asia as gasoline shortages spread throughout the region. Just as with the start of the war in Ukraine, it will probably take several more months for international markets and supply chains to settle in to some sort of reliability. However since this conflict involves a major maritime choke point, it's very likely that even though many nations are attempting to re-route supply chains as best they can, disruptions are likely to continue for a while.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-03-26 18:58:10 CET

//The Wire//1800Z March 26, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UKRAINE TARGETS RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR ST. PETERSBURG. QATAR SEEKS DEAL WITH IRAN TO CEASE IRANIAN ATTACKS ON QATARI OIL REFINERIES.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The conflict continues for the main belligerents, while several GCC states seek a more neutral approach. The nation of Qatar has reportedly struck a deal with the Iranians to settle the dispute between their nations, and as a result Iranian strikes within Qatar have shifted to solely targeting American equipment and installations instead of Qatari oil infrastructure. In Kuwait, operations at the airport remain degraded as the fuel tanks that were struck yesterday continued burning overnight. Iranian strikes on Israeli infrastructure have continued, with multiple strikes being reported in Tel Aviv yesterday evening.
Lebanon: Israeli forces continued their northern push along an axis of advance from the south, and from the east. Over the past three days, Israeli targeting efforts have concentrated fire on various targets south of the Litani, in preparation for the subsequent ground movements. On Tuesday, the Israeli Defense Minister openly stated the goal of invading Lebanon is to seize all of the terrain south of the Litani River. This plan has been supported by the destruction of bridges across the Litani River, which has been intensifying over the past few days.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As the war rages in the Middle East, the conflict in Europe has seen a resurgence of offensive actions over the past few days. Last night, the M/T *ALTURA* was struck by a drone (likely Ukrainian) in the Black Sea shortly after departing Russia with a cargo of oil. This is the second such strike in recent weeks, which also follows multiple substantial strikes on Russian oil infrastructure over the past few days, which have substantially degraded Russia's oil export capability in the north.
The oil export terminal in Ust-Luga was struck two days ago, resulting in substantial damage to Russia's main oil terminal on the Baltic Sea. Similarly, the oil terminal in Primorsk was also hit by Ukrainian drones, with both facilities remaining on fire as of this morning.
Both of these attacks are significant as they are likely a strategic attempt to reduce the capabilities for Russia to capitalize on the growing energy crisis in the Middle East, linking the two conflicts at the strategic level to some degree. Growing reports are also emerging that suggest Russia may be supplying the Iranians with drones, or the components to make them. At the moment, this is just rumor that's impossible to confirm with any reliability, but it would make a lot of sense for Russia to want to turn the screws to the United States after it's become clear that it's just as hard for us to extricate ourselves from our own "special military operation" as it has been for Russia.
Focusing on the more tangible aspects of the war, the targeting efforts in the Baltic are also a demonstration of why it is a very wise move to remained generally informed on wars that are being fought on the other side of the world...in the age of the drone a war being fought in Persia can threaten Scandinavia due to the nature of combatants everywhere seeking to capitalize on a conflict in a faraway land.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-03-24 18:29:24 CET

//The Wire//1900Z March 24, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST DESPITE ALLEGED CEASEFIRE. EXPLOSION REPORTED AT TEXAS REFINERY.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The alleged ceasefire was broken immediately after it was announced yesterday. Israeli PM Netanyahu directly and clearly stated that regardless of the American ceasefire, the Israelis will continue targeting efforts. Which they did yesterday evening as the strikes in Tehran continued. After these targeting efforts were undertaken, Iranian forces retaliated with drone/missile attacks on Israel, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The United States likewise has not been observed to reduce targeting efforts at all, with plane spotters in England continuing to witness American B-52's constantly departing RAF Fairford with bombs slung underwing, before returning many hours later empty.
Analyst Comment: This adds more weight to the theory that the "ceasefire" was probably not very serious, and possibly intended to buy time for more troop movements and resupply operations. Again, time will tell how this develops, but right now, no cessation of bombings ever went into effect.
Strait of Hormuz: Traffic through the Strait has begun to trickle through in an organized manner as Iranian officials have cut deals with various nations, to allow their ships to transit the waterway. Around a dozen ships have passed through the Strait by diverting into Iranian waters, for inspection by Iranian forces in the vicinity of Larak Island.
Analyst Comment: The Larak-tollbooth arrangement started coming into effect last week, and as of this morning is beginning to see more regular use. More strategically, this procedure is vastly more important than it seems as this arrangement is both granting the Iranians more international prestige, but also reducing tensions with other nations (such as China, India, and Japan), who have also been impacted by the war. Selectively allowing ships to transit narrows the scope of Iranian targeting to more directly target the United States, instead of just halting traffic to the rest of the world.
-HomeFront-
Texas: Yesterday afternoon a major explosion and subsequent fire was reported at the Valero Refinery in Port Arthur. Local shelter-in-place orders were issued as authorities extinguished the fire over a period of several hours. The cause of the explosion/fire has not been disclosed.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The timing of this incident is indeed quite suspicious, however at the moment there's really not enough data to make an informed call about this potentially being linked to malign action. At best, all we can do is observe that things start blowing up in the homeland when certain international tensions come to fruition. It is overwhelmingly likely that various "shadow warfare" tactics would be used by a variety of malign actors within the United States at this present time, but as with the Valero fire it will be hard to attribute these incidents to malign action beyond reasonable doubt. In any case, these incidents are a sharp reminder to stay vigilant even if we don't know exactly what happened.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-03-24 02:42:18 CET

//The Wire//2300Z March 23, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PRESIDENT TRUMP ISSUES 48 HOUR ULTIMATUM FOR IRAN TO OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, BEFORE CHANGING STANCE AND IMPLEMENTING 5 DAY CEASEFIRE. MAJOR AVIATION INCIDENT REPORTED AT LAGUARDIA. MULTIPLE IEDS DISCOVERED IN MARYLAND PARK.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Over the weekend the situation deteriorated significantly, with the war heating up on many fronts. President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran for them to open the Strait of Hormuz, or else the United States will destroy their civilian power plants. This morning, President Trump stated that "productive conversations" had been conducted with Iranian officials, and that the US has emplaced a 5-day halt on the bombing campaign throughout Iran.
Indian Ocean: Statements made by NATO officials have refuted the claims made by US officials regarding the alleged Iranian missile attack on Diego Garcia. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that they "cannot confirm" various details of the strike, or that the missiles were fired by Iran. This statement came two days after the Iranians denied responsibility for the attack, stating that they did not launch any missiles at Diego Garcia.
Analyst Comment: Whatever the truth is, it can't be independently confirmed due to the nature of the targeting effort occurring in space, outside with realm of eyewitnesses. Either way, it must be noted for posterity that NATO has expressed uncertainty regarding what missile it might have been, and the Iranians are denying that it was them.
Israel: As the war continues, Iranian forces conducted two major retaliatory strikes over the weekend. The first ballistic missile attack occurred a few miles from the Israeli Dimona nuclear facility, with the warhead landing in a heavily urbanized area near where Israeli scientists are known to live. Separately, another Iranian missile targeted the city of Arad, which resulted in a mass casualty event.
Analyst Comment: The Dimona strike was significant as the munition itself appeared to have demonstrated some means of maneuverability in the terminal stages of it's flight, which allowed the warhead to evade missile defenses. If this was intentional, this is more evidence that the Iranians are shifting to their better missiles, which have more capability. Additionally, the response to these strikes signals a shift in Israeli perspective on the war. Previously, Israel has cracked down hard on all media regarding successful Iranian strikes, with footage and geolocation of any successful impacts being extremely hard to come by. With these strikes however, the media lockdown has been lifted, with PM Netanyahu himself visited both sites and conducting media briefings at the impact craters. The reasons for this change of policy are anyone's guess, but it is significant enough to be aware of.
United Kingdom: Over the weekend an arson attack was reported at a Synagogue in Golder's Green, which involved unknown assailants setting multiple private ambulances on fire in the parking area adjacent to the facility.
Analyst Comment: These ambulances were being parked at the Synagogue, but they actually belong to Hatzola Northwest, a private ambulance service for the local area. In any case, video surveillance of Heighfield Road is substantial and there are no less than eight high-resolution security cameras which would have caught the attackers setting these ambulances on fire, so they'll probably be caught very soon.
-HomeFront-
Maryland: Sunday afternoon, local authorities responded to reports of multiple suspicious packages within Fort Washington Park. U.S. Park Police responded to the reports, which resulted in the discovery of 5x Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) of pipe-bomb-type construction. The park was closed as the Prince George County Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) team rendered the devices safe. No word yet on who placed the devices or if they were viable explosives.
New York: Last night a major incident was reported at LaGuardia Airport after Air Canada 8646 collided with a firetruck that was crossing the runway as the plane was landing. Both the pilot and copilot were killed during the impact, and several others were severely injured. The crew of the firetruck that was hit survived the impact with broken bones. LaGuardia remains closed while the debris is investigated and recovered.
Analyst Comment: The investigation will take some time to confirm, but as with all aviation mishaps this disaster appears to be a result of multiple factors. The fire truck (Truck 1) was responding to reports of a strange odor onboard another aircraft (United 2384), so the night was already incredibly busy. In the fray of the active emergency declaration underway, ATC gave permission for the firetruck to across an active runway, seeming to forget about the Air Canada flight that had just touched down, which resulted in the aircraft colliding with the firetruck on the runway.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Messaging regarding the war in Iran has become so variable, it's challenging to determine what is actually happening. Simply put, Trump's post on social media sounds a lot like searching for an offramp in the manner of conceding to a ceasefire, without saying the word "ceasefire". Right now, it's certainly possible that the US has quietly agreed to an informal ceasefire, based on the terms of Iran allowing vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for a 5-day cessation of American bombing. On the other side, Iranian state media claims that Trump's statement is false, and that they withdrew from talks entirely after he threatened to bomb their civilian power plants. Specifically, Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that not only are talks not being conducted, but they aren't even speaking to the US indirectly through intermediaries.
Otherwise, actions speak louder than words. And on that front strategic movement involving military cargo flights has increased over the past few days, with the United States stepping up logistical efforts to move cargo into the Middle East. The US is moving stuff into the region at breakneck pace, and right now this looks like a deliberate staging of resources for a major offensive. While purely speculative, it is possible that what is being touted as a gracious halt to bombing is actually the result of a shortage of munitions, which need to be topped up before another major offensive action, so at the moment the most likely theory regarding this "quasi-ceasefire" is that this is an attempt to pump the brakes on the rapidly spiraling economic situation, while at the same time rearming and refitting. For context, this 5-day halt to bombing expires on Friday...just after markets close for the weekend.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-03-22 02:10:59 CET

This week's intel update is out! https://youtu.be/NOHHLIBq9FY

2026-03-18 01:47:24 CET

//The Wire//2300Z March 17, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ATTACKS CONTINUE IN BAGHDAD AS FPV DRONES BEGIN MORE FREQUENT USE IN IRAQ. IED DISCOVERED AT MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE IN FLORIDA. COUNTERTERRORISM CENTER DIRECTOR RESIGNS IN PROTEST OF WAR.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Persian Gulf: Over the past few days, conflict within Baghdad has become more significant, as Iranian-backed militia groups concentrate attacks on the Green Zone. Last night the Al-Rashid Hotel was hit by an Iranian drone, and another FPV drone incident was reported as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) continue conducting reconnaissance of the American Embassy compound, which usually results in drone attacks later on that night. These attacks have continued to be a daily occurrence, with sensitive sites at the Embassy compound being struck over the past few days.
-HomeFront-
Florida: Yesterday one of the Entry Control Points (ECPs) at MacDill Air Force Base was shut down due to a suspicious package being discovered at the Visitor's Center. After some time, EOD personnel cleared the device, and operations returned to normal.
Analyst Comment: Officially, no comment has been made on this incident beyond the brief lockdown. As suspicious package incidents are extremely common nowadays, usually nothing comes of it. However in this case, a photo of the suspicious package circulated on social media, which indicates that this was a legitimate IED and not just a lost bag. Whether or not it was actually a viable device is anyone's guess, but the photo of the alleged device indicates that the fuze was lit, only sputtering out on it's own. So clearly somebody tried to blow something up, regardless of the failure to detonate. As a result, this is another important reminder of the threats that remain constant throughout American society, as the war in the Middle East inflames tensions at home.
Washington D.C. - This morning the Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, resigned from his position in protest of the continuing war in Iran, stating that he "cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby."
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: While all resignations in protest will sharply divide sentiment for and against, many arguments are being undertaken as people speak without thinking first. The fiery resignation letter is now functionally a Rorschach Test...people who make policy decisions will see what they want to see in it, and divide themselves accordingly. Disparaging comments attacking one's character that come out only after a public opinion is expressed are not the best indicator for what is really going on behind the scenes, but nevertheless that's exactly what ends up happening among those who are making decisions regarding the war. What is undeniable is that such a high-profile resignation right now is extremely important, and might be an indicator of future events.
Regardless of the politics in play, (and taking personal feelings out of the situation entirely), when one of the main players in the US Intelligence Community resigns right now, at this present time, this is probably an indicator of far more serious developments coming down the pipeline. Senior resignations of this nature in any nation are quite rare, and hard-hitting resignation letters are rarer still. Nobody resigns because they think the war will be over anytime soon, and Kent (being the second-highest-ranking individual in the Intelligence Community) would have had the access to know information pertaining to future events that have not been made public. Due to this context, this could be an early indicator of what decisions have quietly been made behind closed doors, which have not yet come to fruition.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-03-15 01:49:13 CET

This week's intel update is out 👍 Today we dive into the threats at home and overseas, and examine how the war is continuing to expand. International power structures are changing, the drones keep flying, and the American people are not exactly being told the truth about this war. All of which indicates a spicy springtime is on the horizon. https://youtu.be/Q70RSF64H8o

2026-03-14 00:24:00 CET

//The Wire//2300Z March 13, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TERROR ATTACKS CONTINUE IN THE AMERICAN HOMELAND. WAR CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. AMERICAN AIRCRAFT CRASHES IN IRAQ, NO SURVIVORS REPORTED.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Persian Gulf: Last night CENTCOM reported the loss of one KC-135 Stratotanker, which crashed in western Iraq. Rescue operations were conducted immediately, however all six crew members have been confirmed deceased. The incident occurred as a result of a mid-air collision, which involved another KC-135 aircraft that was also damaged.
Strait of Hormuz: This morning another commercial vessel was struck while attempting to transit the Strait, which resulted in catastrophic damage to the vessel. The crew abandoned ship, and several crew members remain missing.
Turkey: Another ballistic missile was intercepted overnight, as Iranian forces continue to target Incirlik Airbase. This is the third such interception since the war began.
UAE: Overnight drone attacks continued to strike Dubai, with the International Financial Center being struck by a Shahed drone yesterday evening.
Analyst Comment: Today was also the third day in a row that the UAE has changed their reporting criteria. Social media reports no longer list the total number of drones that impact within their country, with the daily rollup reports instead stating the number of drones and missiles that were "dealt with". Due to the video confirmation of drones impacting within Dubai overnight, these reports are now openly misleading, as the number of successful Iranian strikes remains unreported.
-HomeFront-
Michigan: Yesterday afternoon a vehicle ramming and small arms attack was reported at Temple Israel, one of the largest synagogues in Michigan. The attack began as a vehicle ramming attack targeting the main entrance to the facility. After the suspect breached the entrance, he exited the vehicle and was engaged by security personnel on site, who neutralized the attacker. Initial reports claim that the suspect also had explosives inside his vehicle, however authorities have not confirmed this yet as the vehicle caught fire during the incident and burned down a substantial portion of the structure, including the suspect. No one but the attacker was killed during the attack.
Analyst Comment: The suspect in this case has been identified as Ayman Mohamad Ghazali, a naturalized US Citizen originally from Lebanon. Some sources claim that he conducted the attack due to to his family being killed in an Israeli airstrike on a refugee camp in Beirut yesterday, however these claims cannot be independently verified at this time. Either way, the suspect attacked the 12,000-member synagogue on a Thursday afternoon when almost no one was at the facility, which is an indicator that the terrorist did not have much time to plan the attack. More information is expected later on, as forensic analysis of the remains and vehicle debris is conducted.
Virginia: Yesterday a mass shooting was reported at Old Dominion University after a terrorist entered a classroom and began targeting students. Local authorities state that a lone gunman entered an ROTC classroom at ODU shortly before 11:00am yesterday morning, first shooting the instructor, who has been identified as LTC Brandon Shah. Immediately after the first shots were fired, the cadets in the classroom mounted a counterattack, using violence of action to subdue the attacker. At some point during the attack one cadet produced a pocket knife which was subsequently utilized in stabbing the attacker to death. The assailant was found dead by police at the scene after being stabbed 22x times.
Analyst Comment: The suspect in this case has been identified as Mohamad Bailor Jalloh, a naturalized US citizen from Sierra Leone and former National Guard soldier who had previously been convicted of attempting to carry out a terrorist attack. In 2016, Jalloh was arrested after attempting to procure firearms with the intent to carry out a Fort Hood-style mass shooting, which resulted in him being imprisoned in 2017 before he was released in 2024.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, local pro-Iranian militia groups such as the infamous Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) have claimed credit for downing the KC-135 over western Iraq last night. However, it's extremely unlikely that the aircraft was shot down based on the damage that was sustained by the other KC-135 involved in the incident. The damaged tail section of the surviving aircraft contained no fragmentation or blast damage indicative of a missile strike, which would be expected in the event of combat damage.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-03-12 01:31:05 CET

//The Wire//2300Z March 11, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MULTIPLE SHIPS TARGETED BY IRANIANS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. IRANIAN DRONE STRIKES REPORTED IN OMAN. POSSIBLE TERROR ATTACK OCCURS IN SWITZERLAND.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Drone attacks throughout the Persian Gulf continue as before, with significant strikes being reported at the port city of Salalah in Oman this morning. Several drones targeted the oil storage tanks near the port, which have been burning throughout the day.
Strait of Hormuz: This morning three merchant vessels were struck by Iranian munitions in the vicinity of the waterway. Two vessels were struck off the coast of Dubai and Ras al Khaymah, one of which was a containership that sustained unspecified damage. To the northeast, another vessel (the M/V MAYUREE NAREE) was struck while attempting to transit the Strait, which caused a fire that has since been extinguished. The crew of this vessel has reportedly abandoned ship in the hours after the strike, and three crew members remain missing.
Analyst Comment: In addition to the threats posed by drones and missiles, concerns are growing regarding the possibility that the Strait may have been mined. President Trump indicated that the Iranians may have attempted to target vessels with naval mines over the past few days, however statements by American officials so far have have been inconclusive as to whether or not any mines have actually been laid. Due to this uncertainty, it would be wise for shipping companies to assume that at least some asymmetric naval capability exists within the Iranian Navy.
Switzerland: Yesterday evening an attack was reported onboard a city bus in the town of Kerzers. One assailant set himself on fire while sitting on the bus, killing 6x people during the attack and wounding 5x others.
Analyst Comment: So far, very little information has been released regarding this attack. The assailant has not been identified, and it may take some time for any potential motive to emerge. Due to the mass casualties that were caused by this incident, this incident should be considered a terror attack until more information comes to light.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - This morning a vehicle ramming incident was reported at the White House, which involved an SUV attempting to ram through the barricades at the corner of Connecticut and H Street. No injuries were reported and the driver was arrested at the scene. No word yet on what caused the incident, or if this was a deliberate attack.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Indications and warnings are mounting that missile defenses throughout the Middle East may be dwindling. Over the past few days, civilian aircraft have been repositioned from airports around the region, and several airlines have canceled flights throughout the region, such as KLM which has halted flights to Dubai until March 28th. As airspace opens up between waves of drone attacks, many commercial and private aircraft owners are taking the opportunity to get their airframes out of harms way.
As a result of these developments, many locals believe this an indicator of interceptor missiles running dry, and thus what seemed like a fairly tepid war (by comparison) might suddenly get more active if the interceptions of drones become less common. This is obviously pure speculation based on an unknown factor; the true number of air defenses any nation has is a closely guarded secret. The same theory applies around the region, from Israel to Kuwait, with nearly all nations involved heavily suppressing any social media posts referencing successful Iranian targeting efforts. Nevertheless, the truth eventually gets out and what can be observed is that the drones still fly and interceptions are not always successful. And that success rate may be decreasing, if the data provided is accurate.
Using the UAE as an example, it is true that drone attacks targeting the nation have decreased over the past two days. From the start of the war, Dubai has fended off about a hundred drones and roughly a dozen ballistic missiles each day. Over the past couple of days, the total number of reported drone attacks have dwindled to about one-third of what has been normal since the start of the war. However, the number of successful interceptions have dwindled too: Of the 35x drones detected yesterday, only 26x were intercepted...with 9x drones impacting within the country. Whether or not they hit their intended targets is unknown, however this many drones making it through defenses on D+11 is substantially important. This also confirms that Iranian forces maintain enough operational effectiveness to conduct Over-the-Horizon targeting, causing just enough trouble to make the fight costly in the long run.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-03-07 23:18:16 CET

This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/lQjKsIRqNLQ

2026-03-05 00:28:26 CET

//The Wire//2300Z March 4, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: GULF WAR CONTINUES AS ALLIED RADAR INSTALLATIONS TARGETED BY IRANIAN FORCES. US NAVY SINKS IRANIAN FRIGATE OFF COAST OF SRI LANKA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The large-scale bombing of targets within Iran continues, with hundreds of bombs being dropped day and night. Around the region, overnight satellite imagery confirmed that Iranian forces have successfully struck multiple American Air Defense installations. Concerning American battle damage, the following radar arrays have been damaged or destroyed since the conflict began.
Qatar: A/N FPS-132 Block 5 array - Hit, unknown damage.
Kuwait: 3x unknown radomes destroyed.
Bahrain: 2x AN/GSC-52B radomes destroyed.
UAE: THAAD battery at Al-Ruwais confirmed struck, damage unknown.
Saudi Arabia: A/N TPY-2 radar site (used with the THAAD system) struck at Prince Sultan Airbase.
Jordan: THAAD battery at Muwaffaq Salti Airbase possibly struck, unknown damage.
Analyst Comment: These radar arrays are not tiny fire-control systems mounted on a HMMWV, these are major strategic assets for air defense throughout the hemisphere, not just the Middle East. The FPS-132 alone costs over a billion dollars and there are only six of these sites in the entire world. Similarly, there are only nine THAAD batteries in existence globally, and the Iranians just hit one (possibly two) of them with a munition that cost about $30k each.
Strait of Hormuz: The war on the high seas continues as multiple commercial vessels have been struck by drones overnight. The UK Maritime Trade Operations center has reported a total of four commercial vessels being hit with unknown munitions over the past 24 hours, sustaining unknown damage. Two container ships, a BCC, and a tanker vessel were all hit or targeted by unknown munitions.
Analyst Comment: Merchant traffic within the Strait is mostly at a standstill, as nobody wants to run the the gauntlet and risk hundreds of millions of dollars if something goes wrong. At this present time, drone and missile attacks are effective enough to prevent any large merchant vessel from transiting the waterway.
Turkey: This morning the Turkish Defense Ministry stated that an Iranian ballistic missile was shot down in their nation. The missile was shot down by a US Navy vessel in the Eastern med, and the debris landed near the town of Dörtyol in the southeastern region of the country.
Lebanon: The Israeli ground invasion continues, with the IDF ordering the evacuation of Lebanese citizens to north of the Litani River. Roughly 15% of the land mass of Lebanon has been ordered to evacuate by Israel, as the IDF continues pushing north.
Indian Ocean: This morning the US Navy torpedoed an Iranian frigate off the coast of Sri Lanka. The IRIS *DENA* was sunk by an American submarine with the crew abandoning ship overnight. The Sri Lankan Navy has conducted rescue operations of about 30 survivors, with about half of the crew remaining missing.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Regarding the evacuations of Americans from the Middle East, so far the situation is complicated. The US State Department has provided emergency phone numbers for Americans stranded overseas to call, but reports are mixed regarding Americans actually being evacuated. Commercial flights remain sporadic, and most Americans stranded in the region are being told to sit tight until flights are available. Airspace closures remain throughout the entire region, and most airlines are attempting to fly out whenever they can. Dubai is the world's busiest airport, and so far it's been averaging a few dozen flights in and out each day, when previously the average was over a thousand flights per day. The smaller airport in Muscat, Oman is the next-closest hub from which evacuations are occurring, however it's nearly all private aircraft at this point since all commercial options have been booked.
Considering the damage that has likely been done to American radar sites around the region, if it is true that Early Warning capabilities have been degraded as a result of Iranian strikes, more serious targeting efforts could continue over the next few days. Although, the systems that have been hit are mostly for high-altitude ballistic missile threats, and not the smaller drones that are threatening the Gulf States most effectively at the moment. This is the fundamental nature of this war: Every missile interception has to succeed every single time, but the Iranians only have to be successful once to cause enough uncertainty both with maritime shipping and civil aviation, to cause problems.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-03-03 21:57:17 CET

//The Wire//2000Z March 3, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACKS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERSIAN GULF. SAUDI FORCES DEPLOY TO QUELL RIOTS IN BAHRAIN. MAJOR OIL FACILITIES SHUT DOWN THROUGHOUT MIDDLE EAST DUE TO STRIKES. ISRAEL LAUNCHES GROUND INVASION OF LEBANON.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The Gulf War continues as Iranian forces begin shifting to strategic targets. Most of the drone/missile attacks overnight targeted oil production facilities, such as the Fujairah Industrial Zone in the UAE, which has been taken offline. Otherwise, the attacks on American installations continue, with the American Embassy in Riyadh being hit multiple times by drones overnight.
Bahrain: Significant riots have broken out around the country, as the majority-Shia population begins expressing dissent with the Sunni government, and more specifically the American presence within the nation. Saudi Forces crossed the bridge this morning with anti-riot forces to help quell the more kinetic protests, which have become intense over the past 24 hours.
Analyst Comment: Politics in Bahrain were complicated before the war, as the population is mostly Shia (and aligned with the Ayatollah), but the country is ruled by a Kingdom that is Sunni. Even before the shooting started the situation was tenuous at best, and the assassination of the Ayatollah might have been the spark needed to kick off a civil conflict within the island nation. This is a complicating factor for the United States, as Bahrain has long served as a major Center of Gravity for American combat power in the region. Now that some locals are getting rowdy (and are also aligned with Iran), this will make things more difficult.
Lebanon: This morning Israeli forces launched a ground invasion in the south, opening up another front so as to seize terrain along the border. Lebanese Army forces have withdrawn from the border as Israeli units advance.
Analyst Comment: It is not clear as to if this is a legitimate, full-scale ground invasion, or limited border incursions that Israel is known to do throughout southern Lebanon. So far, Israeli forces haven't crossed their limit of advance set during the height of the conflict two years ago.
United Kingdom: A stabbing attack was reported in Edinburgh, which resulted in a standoff lasting several hours yesterday afternoon. One unidentified assailant began stabbing people an apartment building, which resulted in two people being wounded. After the attack, the suspect fled into the apartment building, which resulted in a standoff situation that lasted seven hours. Eventually, police were able to breach the building and detain the suspect.
Separately, in Birmingham a different stabbing attack was captured on film this morning, which involved an assailant stabbing a man on the street outside a Catholic school in Alum Rock. This attacker was arrested at the scene, and very few details remain public regarding his identity.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Yesterday afternoon the US State Department published the list of nations that Americans should evacuate from, which includes the entire Middle East. The "depart now" order has been issued for the nations of: Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, West Bank, Gaza, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the UAE, and Yemen.
However, the US State Department has stated that Americans are on their own regarding evacuations. Even though the start of this combat operation was easily predicted down to the exact day (and nearly the exact hour) that it began, the United States somehow believes that they needed to maintain the element of surprise. The State Department believed that if they made attempts to evacuate the Middle East before the attack, the world would know that the war was imminent. This is also why many American bases appear to not be fortified as much as they could have been. In many cases, the Pentagon appears to not understand that their operation was very observable to the public, and their attempts to maintain the secrecy that they thought they had, resulted in little preparation in some areas.
False sense of operational security aside, what this means at the moment is logistical challenges because everyone is having to sit tight for the moment until the war calms down enough to make evacuation flights reliable. A handful of flights have been able to make it in and out of Dubai, despite heavy GPS jamming efforts in the region. The governments of Britain and Poland are tentatively looking to start militarily-organized evacuation flights throughout the region over the next few days, however details are not yet solidified regarding these efforts. Italy has already conducted the military evacuation of some of their citizens from the region, who arrived back in Italy this morning. So far, the official policy of the US State Department is that US Citizens are on their own, and not a single evacuation flight of Americans has yet taken place to evacuate American citizens from the region.
Right now, it might not seem like much, but time is in fact running out. Every single western-aligned Arab nation in the region is running out of interceptor missiles, with some nations reporting that they have burned through many years worth of their supply in just the past two days. Just this morning alone, the UAE blew through 172 interceptor missiles to take out 172 Iranian munitions that would have otherwise impacted targets inside their country.
While it is unconfirmed hearsay at the moment, the rumor throughout the region is that the US has declined to restock these supplies, as most stockpiles of interceptor missiles have been allocated for Israel. As a result, this war is now a marathon to see who has more missiles, the Iranians or the other Persian Gulf states. At the moment, hundreds of drones and missiles are being intercepted out over the Gulf every day...the viral videos of drones slamming into targets on land are merely the munitions that have made it through missile defenses, which is a drop in the bucket compared to the true number of drones and missiles that are being launched. This has lead many to the false assumption that this war will fade away within a few days, because they can't visually see the interceptions that are taking place out over the water. However, it's now Day Four of this conflict, and the drone attacks have remained constant. When/if missile interceptors dwindle, these munitions will have nothing stopping them from reaching their targets.
Last night, President Trump stated that American stockpiles of munitions are at adequate levels, and that "Wars can be fought 'forever'" at current stockpile levels of medium-grade munitions. Despite the rather unfortunate choice of vocabulary in this post, the cold hard truth is that the US has not been supplying the Arab nations that are now getting hit, with the munitions necessary for their defense, or more importantly, the defense of American assets (and citizens) in the region. This will complicate the self-evacuation of Americans over the next few weeks, in addition to sharply increasing the potential for more widespread drone strikes over the next few days.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-03-02 20:42:36 CET

//The Wire//1800Z March 2, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TERROR ATTACK STRIKES TEXAS. GULF WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS IRANIAN FORCES STRIKE AMERICAN BASES AND OIL FIELDS. MULTIPLE AMERICAN AIRCRAFT SHOT DOWN IN FRIENDLY FIRE INCIDENTS. QATAR SHOOTS DOWN TWO IRANIAN FIGHTERS OVER PERSIAN GULF.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The Gulf War continues to expand, with nearly every nation throughout the region being involved as airstrikes and drone/missile attacks remain regular around the clock.
Kuwait: This morning, three separate American F-15E's were shot down due to alleged friendly fire incidents after allegedly being engaged by Kuwaiti air defense systems. All six pilots and weapons officers ejected and were rescued from the desert by Kuwaiti forces.
Analyst Comment: This situation was rather dicey as local Kuwaitis on the ground initially thought that the Americans parachuting down were Iranians. This is possibly due to the American parachutes from the ACES II ejection seats being in the standard colors of Orange, White, and Green (which has been a standard for a long time). Unfortunately, this also looks very similar to the colors of the Iranian flag as it's descending on a residential neighborhood. As a result, several Kuwaitis responded to the crash site with weapons drawn, until it became clear that they were Americans. After the Americans were identified, they were protected and rendered aid until they were recovered safely back to American lines.
Saudi Arabia: Most of the targeting efforts by the Iranians have focused on hitting oil infrastructure. This morning, the Ras Tanura refinery was been shut down completely following Iranian drone strikes, which halts roughly 16% of Saudi Arabia's total oil production capacity.
Qatar: All Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) production has been halted due to Iranian strikes, and the airport in Doha remains closed at the moment. This morning Qatari forces downed two Iranian Su-24 fighters which were sortied to conduct targeting within their nation.
Analyst Comment: If this report is accurate, this would be the first indication that the Iranians still maintain some limited air combat power, even though the runways at most of their airports have been cratered.
UAE: In the Emirates, Iranian forces have been hitting Dubai and Abu Dhabi hard over the past two days. Power plants, oil terminals, and other energy infrastructure have been targeted, along with more military targets. The French Naval Base in Abu Dhabi was hit by Iranian munitions, and the fires have been burning overnight.
Bahrain: The semi-former headquarters of the US Navy's 5th Fleet has been heavily damaged, with a significant portion of the base being completely destroyed. This morning, Iranian forces struck an American strategic oil tanker, the M/T *STENA IMPERATIVE*, as she was sitting in port.
Cyprus: The British Airbase at Akrotiri Airport has been targeted by Iranian missiles/drones several times over the past two days, with heavy smoke being reported at the installation sporadically yesterday afternoon.
Israel: Substantial targeting efforts continue by the Iranians, with many ballistic missile strikes being carried out overnight. Rocket attacks by Hezbollah cells in Lebanon continue, with the IDF conducting several airstrikes in downtown Beirut in response yesterday evening.
Regarding civilian infrastructure in the Middle East, most major airports throughout the entire region are closed for flights, most notably Kuwait International, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Bahrain. Right now, the main logistical hub for citizens fleeing the region is Riyadh, however the Saudis stated overnight that King Khalid International Airport was targeted by Iran. The ballistic missiles were successfully intercepted, but the window for evacuations throughout much of the region is probably closed for a while. Some airlines in Dubai are attempting to re-commence evacuation flights this evening, pending any attacks on the airport.
Concerning American casualties so far, four American service members have been killed as a result of Iranian strikes throughout the region.
Pakistan: Attacks at the US Consulate in Karachi have escalated as rioters have began engaging the Marines inside the compound with small arms. Pakistanis have taken pot-shots from pistols at the Consulate throughout the day, and the Marine Security Detachment has been able to hold the compound so far.
-HomeFront-
Texas: Saturday night, a terror attack was reported at a bar in Austin, which resulted in a mass casualty event. One gunman entered Buford's Bar on 6th street, and began shooting the patrons inside, before being killed during the attack. The suspect has been identified as Ndiaga Diagne, a naturalized US citizen originally from Senegal. Concerning casualties, two fatalities have been reported, along with 14x wounded as a result of the attack.
Analyst Comment: Right now most assumptions regarding this attack jump to the conclusion that this individual was one of the infamous Iranian "sleeper cell" agents that has been "activated" in response to events in the Middle East. At this moment, the evidence points to this being a lone-wolf attack as the suspect was wearing a pro-Islam sweatshirt during the attack, and underneath he was also wearing a shirt portraying the flag of Iran. Beyond these basic details, it will be crucial for the investigation to determine whether this guy was a random lone-wolf, or if there was some prior communication/coordination regarding this attack. In short, we don't know if he was communicating with Iranians or not, but he very likely conducted the attack due to events in the Middle East.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Right now, there is a lot of confusion pertaining to the messaging by American officials regarding this war. On the one hand, the United States has stated frequently that most Iranian military infrastructure has been decimated, but on the other hand everyone can see the drones hitting targets rather effectively, so what gives?
Per long-standing doctrine, Iranian military leadership has substantially expanded on the idea of delegating authority to lower and lower levels of command, so as to ensure effective combat operations in the event that decapitation strikes took out most of their senior leadership. The Iranian's have been planning for this eventuality for some time, and thus their military infrastructure can be described in a single word: Redundancy. It is this theory that is being proven somewhat correct right now, as Iranian forces have been able to not just continue strikes, but launch increasingly more significant missile barrages throughout the Middle East...after most of their military leadership has been killed.
As a result, even the effective decapitation strikes during the initial phases of the war, while a great success, were still not enough to stop the effectiveness of the command and control efforts at lower levels. Even going back to the 1980's Iran has been the textbook example of how cutting off the head of the snake, won't result in the body giving up the fight as quickly as the United States would hope. How long the Iranians can keep this up, is the 64-million-dollar question, but for now, killing the entire upper echelon of Iranian military leadership won't do much to reduce combat effectiveness in the short term. The missiles and drones that continue to fly by the minute are evidence of this doctrine, which continue to seriously threaten both civilian and military infrastructure throughout the region.
All of this is supported by recent comments made by President Trump, confirming that this operation could take up to a month. Over 900x sorties have been conducted by US forces so far, and the level-bombers which have been forward deployed probably haven't even begun the large-scale bombings yet. As with all military operations, time will tell how it goes, and in this case the enduring question is how much damage Iran can do, as their scorched-earth campaign continues throughout the region.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-03-01 17:27:22 CET

//The Wire//1500Z March 1, 2026//
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST. US CONSULATE UNDER ATTACK IN KARACHI, 9X RIOTERS KILLED AS US MARINES DEFEND THE COMPOUND. AYATOLLAH CONFIRMED DEAD FOLLOWING AIRSTRIKE. MISSILE AND DRONE STRIKES CONTINUE AROUND THE REGION.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Yesterday afternoon, President Trump confirmed the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, who was killed in an airstrike in Tehran. Most of his senior advisors were also killed in the same engagement.
On the maritime front, this morning one commercial tanker vessel was struck by an Iranian drone, with the crew of the M/T *SKYLIGHT* abandoning ship after their vessel was hit in the Strait of Hormuz. A few hours ago a second tanker was reportedly struck in the Strait, with the M/T *MKD VYOM* being struck also attempting to transit the waterway this morning.
Analyst Comment: Of note, the *SKYLIGHT* does not appear to have been attempting to transit the Strait and has likely been anchored in the same place for a few years. This vessel was actually serving the Iranian oil industry, and was on the US sanctions list, so the Iranians appear to have targeted one of their own ships, possibly so that the Americans couldn't make use of it.
Significant strikes have been reported at the Jebel Ali petroleum terminals in Dubai, and satellite imagery of Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait has confirmed that the base fuel point was hit, with the fuel bladders/blivets at this location burning overnight.
All total, drone and missile attacks have remained constant throughout the day and night, with the various Interior and Defense Ministries of the following nations providing data on how many interceptions have been conducted overnight:
Qatar: 65 ballistic missiles and 12 drones intercepted.
Bahrain: 45 missiles and 9 drones intercepted.
Jordan: 49 missiles and drones (combined figure), 13 of which were intercepted.
Israel: Over 200 missiles and drones intercepted
U.A.E. - 137 missiles and 209 drones detected, 195 of which were intercepted successfully.
Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have acknowledged strikes targeting their countries, however neither have confirmed how many drones/missiles have been intercepted.
Analyst Comment: Note that these figures only encapsulate the munitions that were successfully intercepted and shot down; most countries don't want to publish the data of how many drones actually made it through their defenses, so the figure for how many strikes have been conducted so far is hard to discern. This time around all belligerents are exercising good operational security, so details of strikes are often hard to find via social media. This is most sharply demonstrated in Israel, where hundreds of strikes are occurring, but difficult to pinpoint on a map due to the exact location of strikes rarely being reported.
Pakistan: Overnight, riots broke out at the US Consulate General in Karachi, which rapidly transitioned into an attempt to breach the American compound. After some time, rioters breached the outer security cordon, and US Marines which had taken up defensive positions inside the facility opened fire on the intruders before they could breach the secondary line of security around the perimeter.
Analyst Comment: Details are extremely hard to verify, however local sources claim that a total of 9x Pakistani rioters were killed during the engagements so far, and the Marines have successfully held the Key Terrain around the Consulate for the past few hours. However tensions are rising, and if the videos of the riots are any indication, Pakistan is not up to the task of defending the American compound, as rioters were allowed to breach, destroy, and set the outer cordon of the American diplomatic post on fire, with no Pakistani security anywhere to be seen.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Around the United States, various efforts are underway to enhance the security posture of various locations and entities. In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott has activated service members to take part in Operation FURY SHIELD, a defensive operation to strengthen security at critical infrastructure sites around the state, in the event that retaliatory efforts via lone-wolf actors attempt to conduct attacks within the homeland. Similarly, the NYPD in New York is increasing patrols throughout the city, and several military bases around the United States remain at an elevated security posture.
Right now these efforts are probably being conducted out of an abundance of caution, however it does confirm that at least someone is thinking about the potential for events overseas, to impact the homeland in the form of terrorism. This has, of course, been a concern for decades, however based on the widening war in the Middle East, it would be wise to remain vigilant and situationally aware for the next few weeks, as the conflict continues to inflame tensions here at home.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-02-28 22:52:18 CET

This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/qxeW_jI7M3o

2026-02-28 13:40:40 CET

//The Wire//1300Z February 28, 2026//
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: WAR BEGINS WITH IRAN.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: This morning the war began as American and Israeli forces conducted pre-emptive strikes throughout Iran. Major bombings have been reported throughout most major cities around the county, with the heaviest concentrations of bombings taking place in Tehran.
In response, Iranian forces have conducted missile strikes targeting American bases in Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and several other locations. Missile impacts have been observed at Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait, Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar, Al Dhafra Airbase in the UAE, Muwaffaq Airbase in Jordan, and at the headquarters of 5th Fleet in Manama, Bahrain. Missile impacts were also reported in Israel, mostly in the port city of Haifa at the moment.
In Iraq, the Kataib Hezbollah al-Nujaba group announced that they will begin insurgent attacks on American forces throughout the region, to include the targeting of American civilians working at American-run oil facilities throughout Iraq.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: President Trump posted an 8-minute video to his Truth Social page, explaining the rationale for the war. In the video, President Trump ordered all Iranian forces to lay down their arms and surrender, while urging all Iranian civilians to stay in their homes while the bombings are conducted. President Trump then urged civilians to rise up and overthrown their government. Beyond these basic details, not much else is known regarding the overall end-goal of this war, however bombings have continued constantly throughout the past few hours. President Trump is expected to conduct another address to the nation later this morning.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-02-26 17:25:22 CET

//The Wire//1500Z February 26, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: POSSIBLE CHEMICAL WEAPONS FACILITY DISCOVERED AT PRIVATE RESIDENCE IN CALIFORNIA. TALKS IN GENEVA CONTINUE AS WAR INCHES CLOSER IN MIDDLE EAST. INVESTIGATION CONTINUES INTO CUBAN BOAT INCIDENT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: This morning the USS *FORD* CSG departed port Souda Bay, bound for operational patrols in the Eastern Med. The drawdown of forces at Al-Udeid continues as well, with only a handful of aircraft remaining at this installation. In Geneva, diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iranian representatives have continued, with reports not really confirming how the talks are going just yet.
Analyst Comment: In addition to American aircraft leaving their transponders on for the majority of their flights, China has dutifully been using their own satellite imagery networks to show the world where American forces are being deployed to. This imagery indicates that forces continue staging at bases throughout the region, including F-16's being forward-deployed to Diego Garcia.
-HomeFront-
California: A possible chemical weapons production facility has been located at a private residence in Irvine. Police responded to a call from a concerned landlord, who had located suspicious items inside a residence just off Irvine Blvd. Local police responded to the residence, and after a few hours, the FBI was on scene investigating what appeared to be a nerve agent that was discovered at the site.
Analyst Comment: This incident initially took place some time ago, however none of the inhabitants of this extremely high-income gated community reported the men-in-white-suits investigating a potential weapons lab in their neighborhood, until prompted by journalists who were first alerted to the scene by the Irvine Police Department's post on the matter last night. Since this neighborhood has controlled access, the local news crew had to fly a helicopter over the scene, which revealed the CBNRE teams that are still on the scene processing evidence. Geolocation of this static image (via the solar panels on the roof and the landscaping arrangement) confirms the address as being 77 Cartwheel Street.
Orange County property records indicate that this residence is owned by Yu-Ting Huang and Allen Lee. A cursory search of business affiliations in California confirms that both individuals are the CFO and CEO (respectively) of Genetex Inc, a major biotechnology business which allegedly provides reagents for medical testing.
Overall, details are very sketchy at the moment, however local media stations have interviewed some of the neighbors who have been willing to talk. According to these reports, various teams of federal agents have been observed on site, to include military service members wearing insignia of a Weapons of Mass Destruction Civil Support Team.
Considering the link to Genetex, so far this incident is nearly identical to other Chinese-linked biolabs, such as the facilities in Reedley, California and in Las Vegas, Nevada. Both of these facilities involved super-sketchy businesses which were supposed to be making test kits or reagents for medical testing, however in reality this was merely a front to conceal the manufacture of biological weapons. Regarding the site in Irvine, there is no link readily identifiable to the other sites just yet, beyond the circumstances of the operations being nearly identical. Of note, Genetex has links to Taiwan, not China, however more information is needed to determine exactly what these links are and exactly which individuals were operating the site. More investigation will be needed to discern what was really taking place at this facility, but as of right now, it would be prudent to categorize this as a potential nerve agent production facility, just in case.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Regarding yesterday's Cuban escapade, the situation remains just as clear as before, which is to say not much. Cuban forces are attempting to frame the incident as a Bay of Pigs Part Two, and have stated that the 10x people onboard the vessel were attempting to invade their country.
The nationalities of the people onboard the vessel are equally a mystery. Some reports state that they were Americans, while other reports state that they were Cubans who had originally fled the nation, only to return later on. Cuban authorities have identified most of the people they have detained, and all of the names are of Cuban origin, however discerning exact nationality is difficult.
For context, Cubans who escape the nation have been known to steal boats in Miami, and pilot those boats back to Cuba either to help others escape, or to run drugs back and forth. Coyotes also prefer to extort Cubans who pay to smuggle themselves into the United States, in a similar manner as was common at the southern US border. On the other hand, Cuban border guards are also known to shoot Cubans who attempt to flee the island by boat without permission, so right now it's a wash as to what this was all about. The boat itself being registered in Florida is probably a clue, as it was reported stolen recently. The United States has not claimed the four KIA as being American yet, and very few statements have been made by American officials, as the investigation continues and all of the evidence is in Cuba.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-02-25 23:29:39 CET

//The Wire//2200Z February 25, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MEXICAN TRUCKING UNION BEGINS LABOR STRIKE DUE TO CJNG AMBUSHING DRIVERS ON HIGHWAYS. AMERICAN FORCES CONTINUE SURGING INTO MIDDLE EAST AS NEGOTIATIONS LOOM. CUBAN FORCES KILL 4 AMERICANS IN SMALL BOAT DURING SKIRMISH IN CUBAN WATERS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The surge of American forces into the region continues, with non-stop flights of C-17's and C-5 cargo aircraft transferring supplies into CENTCOM. Fighter aircraft movements continue as well, with another flight of F-22's departing the United States for Lakenheath overnight, to supplement the 12x F-22's which transitioned to the Middle East a few days ago.
Analyst Comment: On the diplomatic front, negotiations between the United States and Iran are scheduled to take place tomorrow in Geneva. So far no real word how things might go, but if the prior negotiations are any indication, stalling for time will probably be a main goal of all parties involved.
Caribbean: This afternoon the Cuban Embassy released a press statement confirming that 4x Americans were killed during an incident that took place in Cuban waters just north of Cayo Falcones. Cuban forces reportedly attempted to interdict an American speedboat, and when approached by Border Guard forces, the passengers onboard the vessel began shooting. The Cubans returned fire, killing 4x passengers and wounding 6x others.
Analyst Comment: As this is a developing incident at the time of this report, nothing is known beyond the initial press release as posted by Cuba. No American agency or diplomatic post has commented on the situation yet, and the details of what happened are single-source reporting (from the Cuban government) at the moment. More information is expected throughout the evening as the situation develops.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Mexico, the situation remains tenuous as clashes have continued between Cartel and Government forces over the past few days. Random roadblocks and skirmishes pop up sporadically around the country, which have made travel unpredictable for many throughout the region.
Government forces have continued raids in the wake of the initial targeting of El Mencho. Yesterday, the Mexican government confirmed the death of El Tuli, El Mencho's Operations Chief, who was killed in a similar raid as his boss. Removing the OPs guy from the CJNG the day after El Mencho was killed probably stunted the response to the initial raid, however random ambushes continue on the highways, largely unabated. These ambushes usually seek to target large semi-trucks, which Cartel members use to block roadways via setting on fire.
As a result, this morning, the Mexican Alliance of Transportation Organizations A.C. (AMOTAC, the largest trucking union in Mexico), declared a labor strike due to a total of six truck drivers being murdered in these ambushes throughout the country over the past two days. This strike has largely taken the form of truck drivers refusing to drive, with some even setting their own trucks on fire, before the cartel has the chance to do it. These types of labor strikes are common throughout Mexico, as highway robbery is a common threat throughout Latin America. Consequently, logistical problems are very likely nationwide throughout the next few days, as CJNG forces engage in the time-tested guerilla warfare tactics that made them famous.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-02-24 22:49:52 CET

//The Wire//2000Z February 24, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UNITED STATES CAPTURES LAST TANKER VESSEL THAT ESCAPED VENEZUELA. IDAHO VEHICLE RAMMING SUSPECT ARRESTED. WEATHER CONDITIONS POOR IN TEHRAN.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Indian Ocean: Overnight, the United States seized another tanker vessel, interdicting the last remaining vessel that had fled Venezuela in the wake of the Maduro regime's collapse. The M/T *BERTHA* was captured in the Indian Ocean this morning, after running the American blockade weeks ago.
Mexico: Over the past 24 hours, most of the violence around the country has taken the form of arson attacks on convenience stores scattered around the nation, and subsequently looting has been reported at the burned-out stores and commercial venues which have been targeted by cartel militants. Sporadic cartel roadblocks continue to be emplaced on major roadways randomly, which mostly take the form of burning vehicles being used to block the roadway. Most of these roadblocks are resolved in a few hours, and are not usually manned by cartel members.
Analyst Comment: Otherwise, Government forces have been able to secure the airports, and the US Embassy reported this afternoon that flights have resumed for anyone who so desires to depart. Most of the conflict throughout the past 24 hours has focused on CJNG forces conducting ambush-style attacks on federal forces, rather than overtly controlling terrain.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - This afternoon President Trump is scheduled to give the State of the Union Address before Congress. The speech is scheduled for 9:00pm Eastern time.
Analyst Comment: For those speculating that the war with Iran will be announced during this address, it will be a little late in the day for that. By the time the speech is scheduled to start, the sun will be about to rise in the Middle East, so it will probably be too late timing-wise if the cover of darkness is necessary for whatever is planned.
Idaho: The suspect in the St. Luke's vehicle ramming attack has been identified and was arrested last night. Sarah Elizabeth George, a resident of Boise, has been charged with stealing the ambulance, conducting the ramming attack into the Portico Building, and the subsequent attempted arson.
Analyst Comment: As one might expect, the suspect's digital profile indicates that the attack was conducted for ideological reasons, which meets the definition of being classified as terrorism. It is unclear as to if terrorism charges will be filed, but the suspect's social media accounts contain the usual indicators of mental instability and open calls for violence. The suspect was identified after leaving the credit card receipt for the gas cans that were to be used in the attack, at the scene of the crime.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Weather in Tehran is not great, with cloud cover rolling in this afternoon. METeorological Aerodrome Reports (METARs) for points around Tehran indicate an overcast sky at 10,000ft remained in place for much of the day, with a scattered layer situated at 4,000ft. The Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for Imam Khomeini International Airport calls for suboptimal weather conditions (cloud cover and rain) until at least tomorrow night.
Weather conditions are constantly changing, however very tentatively, cloud cover is forecasted to be murky at best over the next few days. Lunar illumination peaks this weekend, with the window of 80% illum taking place from roughly February 27th, to March 6th. Meanwhile, cargo flights continue unabated, as more resources constantly flow into the Middle East.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-02-23 13:26:32 CET

//The Wire//1100Z February 23, 2026//
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: CARTEL WAR KICKS OFF IN MEXICO AS CJNG LEADER KILLED BY MEXICAN FORCES.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Mexico: Yesterday afternoon Mexican forces conducted a raid in the town of Tapalpa, Jalisco, with the objective of capturing Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes (Alias: "El Mencho"), the leader of the CJNG Cartel. During the operation, El Mencho was killed, which triggered heavy fighting between the Mexican government and the CJNG cartel throughout the afternoon.
So far, most of the heavy fighting has been observed in Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta, two cities which have historically served as CJNG strongholds.
Immediately after Mencho's death, CJNG forces declared a general mobilization throughout Jalisco, which encompasses most of their territory. Most of the fighting throughout the afternoon took the form of knee-jerk, rapid response elements engaging Mexican authorities with small arms and crew served weapons, mostly via skirmishes in the street in various small towns scattered throughout the district. Violence is not confined to just Jalisco, burning vehicles were observed in the town of Reynosa, just across the border from McAllen, Texas.
Throughout the evening, a more organized and substantial deployment was undertaken, with heavier weapons and armored vehicles being deployed to engage government forces throughout the region. In the town of Puerto Vallarta, combat actions were reported throughout the afternoon with CJNG briefly holding the city for some time. Within a few hours, Government forces rolled in hard with air support, pushing CJNG out of the city (or at least, out of fighting positions on the street) by nightfall.
Throughout the countryside, many roads are impassable due to cartel forces digging anti-tank ditches across the roadway, emplacing roadblocks, and otherwise digging in for what they perceive to be a draw-out fight.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Throughout much of Mexico, the situation can be described as a state of pandemonium and chaos. There's no way to determine front lines or Centers of Gravity at the moment, as all of the violence observed throughout the afternoon is representative of whatever combat power local CJNG cells had at their safehouses. El Mencho was the patriarch of the CJNG, and more of a grandfather figurehead of the cartel family than an operational leader. As one might expect, killing a sicario's grandfather in such a manner has dialed the violence up to eleven.
As soon as word got out that El Mencho was dead, everyone grabbed their rifles and started shooting at whatever Mexican authorities were in their area. The next few days will probably see even more organized violence as cartel leadership organizes more significantly for combat actions in the long term. Since the CJNG cartel has been allied with the Gulf Cartel for some time, violence has continued right up to the US border.
Due to the rapid breakout of war throughout the region, most entities were not expecting small arms engagements on a peaceful Sunday afternoon. Cities known for heavy tourism industry are directly in the center of much of the fighting, with off-season tourists being caught in the middle of the conflict. As a reminder, Guadalajara is scheduled to host the 2026 FIFA World Cup this summer, and right now many high-level soccer matches have brought scores of tourists and sports fans to the exact district that is now host to heavy fighting.
Guests at the many tourist resorts scattered throughout the region suddenly found their afternoon cocktail hour interrupted by gunfire and shrapnel, and throughout the evening most civilians throughout the region spent many hours sheltering in place, or fleeing the area if they could. The US State Department has issued shelter-in-place orders for the following areas: Puerto Vallarta, Chapala, Guadalajara, Tijuana, Tecate, Ensenada, Cancun, Cozumel, Playa del Carmen, and Tulum.
Concerning evacuations, the Guadalajara Airport has been closed until further notice, while the conflict continues on the ground in the vicinity of the airport. Most Embassies have urged their citizens in Central Mexico to shelter in place, until the fighting subsides and more information becomes available. Travel by road anywhere in Mexico is subject to being caught up in checkpoints and random roadblocks, either by government forces or the Cartels themselves. More information is expected throughout the day as the sunrise affords the opportunity for battle damage assessment, for the engagements that took place overnight.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-02-22 00:51:16 CET

This week's intel update is out! https://youtu.be/iSmD2Zg_JKo

2026-02-21 00:29:51 CET

//The Wire//2300Z February 20, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: STRATEGIC MOVEMENT CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST. CALTECH SCIENTIST FOUND MURDERED AT HIS HOME IN CALIFORNIA. TERRORIST CONDUCTS VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK ON ELECTRICAL SUBSTATION IN NEVADA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The airlift of American forces into the region has largely transitioned to a steady flow of logistics and cargo aircraft, as the fighters and tankers have completed their forward deployment to airbases mostly in Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) flights adjacent to Iranian airspace have continued over the past few days, as last-minute checks are conducted before the final "GO" command is given.
Weather: The Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for Imam Khomeini International Airport (OIIE) indicates clear weather for the next few days. Westerly winds of 12 kts are expected in Tehran, and visibility is forecasted to be at least 5 miles for the next few days. Current METARs for other locations around the region confirm that there are no cloud ceilings, and clear skies are expected throughout the next week.
Sea conditions in the Gulf are similarly excellent, with the sea state remaining calm throughout the evenings as standard for this time of year. Light chop is expected in the afternoon on Saturday, with otherwise smooth seas expected for the Strait of Hormuz for the new two days.
-HomeFront-
Nevada: This afternoon authorities in Boulder City released preliminary information regarding a terror attack that was conducted last night. Details are sketchy at best, with authorities stating only that an individual from New York traveled to Boulder City with the intent to conduct a terrorist attack. At some point last night, the unnamed individual rammed a vehicle into an electrical substation near Boulder City, before taking their own life.
Analyst Comment: As of right now, very little information has been made public, and due to the remote nature of the attack site, no civilians witnessed the incident. Authorities have not confirmed which electrical site was targeted, however the Mead Substation is the only facility in the area that matches the loose description provided by police. The suspect has not been identified, and the circumstances of how this event developed have not yet been disclosed, beyond stating that this was a deliberate terror attack. More information is expected this afternoon, as this is a developing situation at the time of this report.
California: This morning more details were disclosed regarding a murder that was committed on Monday. Carl Grillmair, a renowned astronomer and researcher at the California Institute of Technology, was found murdered at his home just outside Los Angeles, after being shot in the chest on his front porch on Monday. A few days after the murder, the suspect was identified as Freddy Snyder, who was arrested on Wednesday.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Any time a high-profile murder is committed, a closer look at the case is warranted. Authorities working the case have portrayed this crime as a carjacking-gone-wrong, as the lead suspect has a long history of carjacking. Upon conducting the shooting, the suspect immediately ran to a neighbor's home and attempted to carjack them as well, according to local media reports.
However, beyond the rap sheet of the alleged suspect, none of the details as presented make sense simply based on the location of the murder. The victim was a well-known astronomer, and as a result he lived in the middle of nowhere so as to avoid light pollution as much as possible for his home stargazing and research efforts. This residence is so remote that it's exceptionally unlikely that this was a random crime. To get to this residence, the assailant would have had to drive down multiple dead-end roads, in the dark, directly past a wealthy, non-gated country club, to find this house in the middle of the desert.
The murder was also reported at just after 6:00am local time, which is an extremely rare time for a carjacking to occur. Whatever happened in this case is unclear, and all theories so far are pure speculation. However, what's clear is that there is more to this case than meets the eye, and considering international tensions becoming palpable, it would be wise to consider the 5th Generation Warfare tactics that are probably being utilized throughout the homeland at the moment, whether it be a mysterious murder, or a random substation being taken offline. All eyes are on the Middle East due to the potential for a hot shooting-war to kick off imminently, but the concerns of a shadow war being waged in the homeland are more of an immediate concern, as the general populace jumps from one distraction to the next.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-02-20 02:38:13 CET

//The Wire//2300Z February 19, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DOMESTIC TERROR ATTACKS CONTINUE IN UNITED STATES. IRANIAN DRILLS CONTINUE IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. VEHICLE EXPLOSION REPORTED OUTSIDE AMERICAN EMBASSY IN ARMENIA. FLASHBANG DEVICE DEPLOYED AT POLLING PLACE IN NORTH CAROLINA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Armenia: This afternoon an explosion involving a vehicle was reported outside the US Embassy in Yerevan. As of this report, no details have clarified if the explosion was a deliberate VBIED attack, or some other more benign accident, however the investigation is ongoing.
Middle East: The military drills in the Strait of Hormuz have continued as before, largely without incident. Several long-range missile launches have been conducted as part of the exercises, and maritime traffic through the Strait has remained fairly steady despite growing concerns among maritime shipping companies. Various European leaders have continued to express increasing urgency that their citizens should leave Iran as soon as possible, as evacuation will not be an option for much longer.
Analyst Comment: Concerning the logistics of Americans who may wish to evacuate Iranian territory before things get hot, air travel (if it's even available) is probably the least-safe option at this point. Officially, the US State Department recommends land-border crossings with Armenia and Turkey. The Armenian border crossing in Agarak is still open, and is by far the most reliable means of exiting the country as a visa is not needed for American citizens fleeing Iran. The Turkish border crossings are more numerous, but coordination with the Turkish Embassy is needed to obtain a visa before Americans will be allowed in. Concerning this morning's vehicle explosion in Armenia, it's likely that security measures will be enhanced for a while, so getting out sooner rather than later would be ideal, for anyone still stuck in Iran.
-HomeFront-
Florida: As nationwide walkout protests involving students continue, children continue to be hit by vehicles as they conduct anti-ICE protests on busy roadways. This morning a student from Palm Beach Lakes Community High School in West Palm Beach was critically injured after stepping into the street during a protest. The condition of the student is not known at this time.
Idaho: Early this morning just after midnight, a vehicle ramming attack was reported at a medical facility in Meridian. Local authorities state that one assailant stole an ambulance from the bay at St. Luke's Meridian Medical Center, which he then used to ram into the Portico West administration building on the corner of Eagle and Franklin. After ramming through the plate-glass entryway, the suspect then abandoned the ambulance, and retrieved multiple cans of gasoline that he had cached in the nearby vegetation before the attack. After obtaining the gas cans, the suspect doused the building with the gasoline, but due to the rapid arrival of authorities, egressed from the scene before he was able to ignite the accelerant. The suspect remains at large, and locals are advised to contact authorities with any information that might assist in the investigation. However, no physical description, clothing, or surveillance footage of the suspect has been provided at this time.
Analyst Comment: Considering the multiple weapons used during the attack (the gasoline and the vehicle itself) this meets current criteria for being described as a Complex Coordinated Attack (CCA). As such, this incident is being treated as a deliberate terror attack while the investigation is ongoing.
North Carolina: Yesterday evening a possible explosive attack was conducted outside a polling place in Moore County. Aberdeen police state that a loud bang was heard yesterday evening outside the Parks and Rec building on Sandhills Blvd. that was serving as an early voting site. Poll workers subsequently investigated the cause of the sound, which resulted in the discovery of a spent flashbang device (though whether or not the device was improvised or commercially produced was not disclosed). Police state that they think someone threw the device at the venue from a moving vehicle passing by on the highway outside the structure.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As most headlines remain focused on the Middle East, terrorism concerns remain paramount here at home. Attacks or incidents involving polling places are always noteworthy due to the political goals that are often the motivation for such activities. However, the North Carolina case is extra noteworthy due to the location of Aberdeen and Southern Pines in general being saturated with important people affiliated with the Special Warfare community. Whether it is mysterious Chechens sneaking through the woods, or electrical substations being shot at in areas that are not easy to find...whenever current events start getting serious around the world, things in Moore County start getting weird. Regarding this case, commercial flashbang devices are not easy to obtain by the average civilian, and they're also not particularly easy to make either. If this had happened anywhere else (and at any other time) most would probably chalk this up to kids playing pranks, but at the present time of palpably-high tensions globally, there's probably more to the case than meets the eye.
Similar story in Idaho, where very important context has been left out of much of the reporting surrounding the hospital attack. The exact building that was attacked this morning was rumored to contain workspaces that were leased to ICE. These rumors originated from a WIRED article that was published last week, which identified a list of locations that were being used by Homeland Security, and subsequently, ICE. This report circulated among far-left terror cells in Boise last week, which is very likely why local authorities are tight-lipped regarding the suspect...they don't want to admit that far-left groups are continuing to conduct terrorist attacks at an increasing rate around the United States, without any accountability whatsoever. More specific to this area, Boise PD does not have the resources to combat what has become a very serious domestic terrorism problem in their city over the past few months, and stirring up more activists-turned-terrorists is probably more than they want to handle at the moment.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-02-19 00:14:23 CET

//The Wire//2300Z February 18, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SURGE OF AMERICAN MILITARY FORCES CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. IRANIAN FORCES DIG IN BY REINFORCING KEY SITES AND MILITARY FACILITIES.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The surge of American forces continued overnight, with a total of 6x E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft completing their movement into theater overnight. Early this morning, multiple flights of KC-135 refueling tankers crossed the Atlantic in flights of 5x aircraft at a time, landing at various bases along the way before making their way into CENTCOM. So far, roughly 25x tankers have flown into CENTCOM over the past few days, along with many other support and logistics aircraft. This morning, the USS *GERALD FORD* was detected on AIS receivers off the coast of Morocco, having made the Atlantic crossing sooner than expected.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Timeline wise, if the US intends to kick things off on Friday (after the stock markets close) or early Saturday morning, everything is lining up to support strikes taking place this weekend at the earliest. However, lunar illumination peaks to over 90% next weekend, which would provide an optimal window for various nocturnal activities.
On the diplomatic front, all sides are putting up a false-front, with both the United States and Iranian diplomats stating rather sheepishly that no agreements have been reached, but the talks have so far been positive. However, a nation does not move nearly a quarter of her Air Force (and a third of her Navy) overnight if things are going well. The cessation of talks (even on positive terms) reflects the reality of the situation, which the Iranians have been preparing for. IRGC forces have been fortifying sites around the country for weeks, with signs of late-stage preparations being made. At the Isfahan Nuclear Site, for example, all of the tunnel entrances have been covered with dirt. These fortification efforts were conducted sometime between January 22th and February 13th, when commercial satellite imagery passes were conducted. This aligns with other fortification efforts observed around the country, most of which are last-ditch efforts that are only usually undertaken in sheer desperation, in the days before strikes begin. So if all of this is one giant PSYOP to apply pressure for negotiations, it might be working a little too well...the Iranians seem to be very convinced that they will be bombed no matter what, so it's likely that they have no reason to negotiate at all at this point. Especially since the latest round of talks has concluded, with no future date yet scheduled for the next round of talks.
Consequently, even though all sides have made statements of polite indifference toward peace talks, actions speak louder than words, and all sides are moving into the final stages of a major military campaign at breakneck pace.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-02-18 02:06:42 CET

//The Wire//2300Z February 17, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MASS SHOOTING REPORTED IN RHODE ISLAND. IRANIAN FORCES CONTINUE NAVAL DRILLS AS AMERICAN FORCES BEGIN MASS MOVEMENT INTO MIDDLE EAST.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Caribbean: American forces continue airstrikes on narco vessels, with three fastboats sunk overnight in the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility. Two strikes were carried out in the Pacific, and the third in the Caribbean. A total of 11x EKIA were reported as a result of the strikes.
Middle East: This morning Iranian forces continued naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. These drills, dubbed the "Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz" exercise by the IRGC-N, has involved various show-of-force targeting drills involving various naval platforms. These exercises involved the brief closure of a section of the Strait for a few hours today, as live-fire drills were conducted throughout the day.
Europe: This morning, the mass movement of US military aircraft was observed throughout the continent as American forces begin the surge of forces into the Middle East. Overnight, multiple flights of F-16's, F-22's, F-15's and F-35's were all observed maneuvering toward the region, totaling several dozen aircraft. Command and Control aircraft were observed staging as well, alongside several Airborne Early Warning platforms.
-HomeFront-
Rhode Island: Yesterday afternoon a mass shooting was reported at a skating rink in Pawtucket as one assailant began firing in the stands at a high school hockey game. The shooter has been identified as Robert Dorgan, who was targeting his ex-wife and children during the attack. Concerning casualties, two fatalities have been reported, along with multiple wounded.
Analyst Comment: This appears to be a domestic incident, in which a transgender individual murdered his family in the middle of a crowded venue. Based on the shooter's social media pages, this individual was very obviously mentally ill and had made threats openly for some time, including one post which directly threatened violence one day before the shooting.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: So far, the mass mobilization of equipment to CENTCOM looks like the Real McCoy, once again. As of this afternoon, this is the largest migration of military aircraft into CENTCOM in many years, and differs from the last time the US struck Iranian facilities in that fighter aircraft are moving into theater much moreso than the previous one-and-done, single-sortie mission that was Operation MIDNIGHT HAMMER. Of course, moving aircraft is comparatively cheap when it comes to the manipulation that these actions provide, which in this case is very obviously intended to pressure the Iranians into accepting whatever deal is put before them. This afternoon Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi departed Geneva, with the past two weeks of talks more or less being a stalemate. As must always be noted, the forces that are being staged right now can always turn around and go home without a shot being fired. However, even taking this into account (and adding in the wider geopolitical context), it's very likely that cratering Iranian facilities is on the menu once more.
Probably the best form of warning for the Iranians is the minor detail that the main aircraft carrier in the region (the USS *ABRAHAM LINCOLN*) has not transited the Strait of Hormuz. This foreboding detail is likely due to long-standing doctrine; any serious actions taken in Iran will require more maneuverability (and range) than the Gulf can provide. As a result, a common rule of thumb has been that the United States holding position in the Arabian Sea (without transiting the Strait) is an indicator that the US is serious. If the US just wanted to posture, the Navy would have sailed through the Strait just to flex on the Iranians brown-water navy, and since a CSG has been on station for weeks without doing so, this is something to take note of as the clock ticks down.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-02-17 02:08:12 CET

//The Wire//2300Z February 16, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CONCERNS ARE GROWING FOR TWO CAPTURED AMERICAN PILOTS DETAINED IN WEST AFRICA. UNITED STATES SEIZES OIL TANKER IN INDIAN OCEAN.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Indian Ocean: Over the weekend the United States seized the M/T *VERONICA III*, one of the tankers which fled Venezuela in the wake of the fall of the Maduro government. The vessel was boarded and seized due to carrying oil in violation of American sanctions.
West Africa: Concerns are growing concerning the safety of Two American pilots who were illegally detained by authorities in Guinea almost 6 weeks ago. On December 29th, Brad Schlenker and Fabio Espinal Nunez were piloting a private charter flight when they diverted to Guinea to refuel. They were given permission to land, and upon taxiing to the terminal, were greeted by armed soldiers. Both pilots have been detained since the incident.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As of right now, the issue of the pilots in Guinea is still in the realm of diplomacy, as the families of the captives have been working with the Embassy to secure the pilots' release. Since this line of effort has not yielded any progress, the families have gone to the media with the hope that a media blitz will pressure the White House to speed along their release.
All of this can probably be handled with a phone call, but just in case a more active response is called for, an understanding of the terrain might be helpful.
So far, many details remain unknown as the initial circumstances of the detention are hard to verify. Flying for a regional charter airline in Africa is one of the most dangerous jobs a pilot can take, simply due to the corruption that is rampant throughout the continent. As such, it was an odd choice to choose to land in this country in particular, which has led many to assess that there is more to the story than meets the eye. The status of the original charter itself is also not known; some reports state that this flight was a ferry flight moving an aircraft that was recently sold (i.e. no passengers on board), whereas other reports state that they were flying a Brazilian family to Dubai.
In any case, taking the story at face-value, the pilots diverted to Guinea for fuel and upon landing probably did not have enough cash on hand for the required bribes. Verbal permission to land is not good enough in Africa, and every stage along the way involves greasing palms, which always demand more. In this case, these pilots are currently serving as a bargaining chip, having chosen to land in Guinea at the worst possible time...during a state of military coup. General Mamadi Doumbouya is currently running the country after "winning" the election one day before these pilots landed. Doumbouya was the leader of the 2021 coup that overthrew the previous government, and over the past few years, the beleaguered nation has been host to the standard West African experience of poverty and violence while under military rule.
Now that he's made his warlord status official, his government is probably looking to increase his standing. Nothing pads the ego of an African warlord quite like snatching a couple of Americans so as to get the attention of the United States (the mere dialog with the US alone will increase the legitimacy of his government).
However, Doumbouya might find that his little stunt gets the wrong kind of attention from the United States if the pilots are not released immediately. Whatever the pilots did (if anything) to get detained is not a good enough excuse to avoid American involvement; the United States has proven over the past year that the US military will bomb a country back to the stone age for nothing more than a Klondike bar, so Doumbouya would be wise to correct this issue immediately. Local media reports (such that they are) indicate that the courts have actually declined to press charges against the pilots as they have done nothing wrong, but the military council running the administration of the country has refused to release them.
On the ground, the situation is not great. Schlenker and Nunez have been allowed access to a phone semi-regularly, and have been making contact with family after their detention. State Department officials have also reportedly visited the prisoners in person, confirming that they are still alive. The exact facility that the pilots are being held in is not known, however they have stated that they are located in Conakry, so they are probably being held somewhere inside Conakry Central Prison (also known as Maison Centrale in French), which is the only known detention facility in the area. It is possible the pilots are being held elsewhere, however historically most leaders of African nations tend to keep a close eye on their political prisoners, and Guinea's history is no different, with the main prison being located a short distance from the Presidential Residences. This is important as if this is where the pilots are being held, they probably will not survive much longer.
This facility is nestled in the heart of heavily urbanized terrain at the southwestern end of the peninsula which contains Guinea's capital city of Conakry. As far as prisons go, this facility is a standard example of the typical African prison, and conditions inside the compound are horrific at best and non-survivable at worst due to extremely harsh living conditions brought on by overcrowding, as well as the brutality of the guards who frequently torture prisoners.
The terrain surrounding the compound is dense urban city, with little open ground. The target compound itself is encircled by slums to the North and East, and protected by a mud-brick wall approximately 8 feet tall, and 1-2 feet thick. Inside the perimeter sits a scattered array of one-story buildings, most of which are of cinderblock construction. Otherwise, defenses throughout the peninsula are sparse, with most weapons systems being centered around the standard Technical with a mounted crew-served weapon. It is likely that no MANPADs or other more sophisticated air defenses are located in the area. Most military forces are scattered sporadically, with the main bulk of somewhat-organized forces being concentrated at the Airport 7 miles to the northeast.
All in all, if Doumbouya wants to take his chances, he's certainly welcome to do so, however it would be wise for him to seek a diplomatic solution immediately.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-02-15 02:57:11 CET

This week's intel update is out! https://youtu.be/ElqCCjeKxow

2026-02-14 01:31:24 CET

//The Wire//2300Z February 13, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PENTAGON REDEPLOYS FORD CSG TO MIDDLE EAST. ARSON ATTACK TARGETING ALLEGED POTENTIAL ICE FACILITY REPORTED IN KANSAS CITY. STABBING ATTACK STRIKES PARIS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
France: This evening a stabbing attack was reported in Paris, at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier near the Arc de Triomphe. One of the soldiers in the Honor Guard was wounded during the attack, as the assailant attempted to target the crowd participating in the daily flame lighting ceremony. Armed police shot the attacker several times, ending the attack.
Analyst Comment: Local French sources claim that is not the first time that this individual has stabbed a police officer. The assailant has been identified as Brahim Bahrir, a 47 year old male who was at the center of a different terror attack, in which he stabbed two police officers in an identical manner back in 2012. He was released from prison for this attack some time ago, with today's terrorism attempt being the second major stabbing attack he has committed.
Middle East: Following PM Netanyahu's departure last night, the White House announced the repositioning of the USS *GERALD FORD* CSG from the Caribbean to the Middle East.
Analyst Comment: The *FORD* has already been deployed for about 8 months, so either she's getting an extension or she'll pull in to Norfolk for refit/resupply before heading to the Arabian Sea. Either way, it will take about two weeks for this repositioning to take place, at the absolute earliest.
Caribbean: Yesterday a collision was reported between two US Navy vessels conducting resupply at sea. The USS *TRUXTON* (DDG 103) collided with the USNS *SUPPLY* (T-AOE-6) while attempting to carry out Underway Replenishment (UNREP) operations on Wednesday. Two sailors were injured as a result of the collision, both of which are in stable condition.
-HomeFront-
Missouri: An arson attack was captured on film yesterday afternoon, which involved a woman deliberately setting fire to a commercial structure that was reportedly on the books to be sold to the federal government for the creation of an ICE detention facility. The fire was put out by the fire department, and the assailant remains at large.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Regarding the Kansas City arson attack, a lot of unsubstantiated information is circulating. And as luck would have it, a news van happened to be set up on scene, with a camera pointed at the attack site, perfectly framed to capture the arson attack...before it began. This same news affiliate is the same source that claims that the attack was a success, and that the company is no longer planning to sell the warehouse to ICE, due to the acts of the terrorist.
It is true that the federal government is trying to contract out empty warehouses around the US to serve as detention facilities, but it's not clear as to if this exact facility was/is included in these efforts. At present, it's just as likely that this abandoned warehouse was selected on a whim via unsubstantiated rumors, and probably circulated among the Kansas City Rapid Response chat groups. These far-left cells tend to take the tiniest bit of information and run with it, without any verification whatsoever.
This case is a good example of how truth does not actually matter to far-left activist groups, and unsubstantiated rumors in a group chat can get somebody killed. From a risk-management perspective, when there is no criteria for selecting targets in warfare, no one is safe. This is what makes these groups so dangerous; deadly and horrific attacks can be conducted on random buildings (or random people), with no warning at all. And just like in Minneapolis, these groups know that they can't actually win an engagement against ICE, so they go after the soft-targets in a city, targeting the civilian populace just to punish them for not rising up against ICE themselves.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-02-12 01:57:37 CET

//The Wire//2300Z February 11, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MASS SHOOTING REPORTED IN CANADA. MAJOR AIRSPACE CLOSURES REPORTED ALONG USA/MEX BORDER.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Canada: Yesterday afternoon a mass shooting was reported in Tumbler Ridge, a small town in British Columbia. The attack began with the assailant murdering two people inside a private residence (at least one of which was the suspect's mother). After these initial murders, the suspect maneuvered to Tumbler Ridge Secondary School, where he conducted the mass shooting, which ended after the suspect took his own life. Concerning casualties, a total of 9x fatalities have been reported so far, 6x fatalities at the school, 2x at the residence, and the shooter himself. Roughly 25x others were also wounded during the attack.
Analyst Comment: Regarding the motive, this shooting appears to be the standard transgender mass shooting. As the shooting was ongoing, authorities referred to the shooter as a "woman in a dress", and used the term "gunperson" to describe the suspect. After some time, the suspect was identified as Jesse van Rootselaar, who was a male transitioning to female.
-HomeFront-
Texas: Substantial airspace closures have been reported throughout the region, which have been issued and retracted. Early this morning two Temporary Flight Restrictions (TFRs) were issued for two areas along the Mexican border. NOTAM 6/2233 was issued just before midnight yesterday evening, which grounded all aircraft at El Paso International Airport for a period of ten days; no flights, no exceptions. A similar flight restriction (TFR 6/2234) was also imposed for an area to the west of El Paso, along the Mexican border.
A few hours after the El Paso Airport NOTAM was issued, it was abruptly retracted. NOTAM 6/2234 (the area along the border adjacent to El Paso) remains in effect as before, with this airspace sector being closed for the next ten days.
This afternoon, the White House stated that this was all related to an imminent threat involving Cartel drone activity, and aircraft were grounded due to counter-UAS measures being deployed, which might have inadvertently targeted civilian aircraft.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The airspace closure of El Paso alone is very interesting, as the type of airspace closure is extremely rare due to the location, timing, and scope of the closure. As a result, there are a few wildly differing possibilities as to what actually happened.
In short, last night the FAA dropped a no-fly-zone akin to what was issued on 9/11 directly over the El Paso airport. The wording of the NOTAMs (or rather, the lack thereof) is also highly interesting as no concessions were made for any sort of exception, at all. This was a hard-line "we will shoot you down if you take off" kind of no-fly-zone. No medical aircraft, no police helicopters, absolutely nothing allowed to be in the air, not even military aircraft were granted an exemption.
As to what the truth actually is, it's anyone's guess and probably a blend of all of the theories expressed so far. It's certainly possible that the official story is true, and that Cartel drones breached US airspace, an various emergency measures were employed to "discombobulate" the drones. It's also possible that this was an overreaction brought on by personality clashes in El Paso, and not an actual threat. Most seriously, it's equally possible that the threat was not the standard Cartel recon drones, but something vastly more dangerous, which presented a direct threat to civilian aircraft.
Cartel drones have been operating in the border region for many years, both for the purposes of smuggling drugs across the border, but also for conducting reconnaissance of US Border Patrol positions (though these recon flights don't normally take place at night). These flights have prompted nearly-daily warnings and temporary groundstops, but not the "break glass in case of war" airspace closure that was issued last night. So whatever happened was an anomaly that has not been made public at the present time. More broadly, this was a serious situation all around, and if this is an early indication and warning of an intensification of Cartel activity as winter comes to a close, incidents like this will probably increase over the next few months.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-02-11 02:58:17 CET

//The Wire//2300Z February 10, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: POLITICAL CANDIDATE IN MINNESOTA DROPS OUT OF RACE AFTER FAMILY TRAGEDY. POLITICAL CANDIDATE IN FLORIDA TARGETED IN ARSON ATTACK. TWO ARRESTS MADE FOLLOWING CASH VAN HEIST IN ITALY. SURVEILLANCE FOOTAGE RELEASED REGARDING HIGH PROFILE KIDNAPPING CASE IN ARIZONA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Italy: Two arrests have been made in conjunction with Monday's cash van heist on State Road 613. Details of the arrests have not been made public, as four other thieves are being sought as the investigation continues.
Analyst Comment: Otherwise the investigation into the explosive devices planted on Italian rail lines has continued, with an anarchist group claiming credit for the devices, and posting about the targeting efforts on their blog.
Russia: Several arrests have been made in conjunction with the recent assassination attempt of a Kremlin intel chief, which resulted in LTG Vladimir Alexeyev being shot multiple times at his apartment last week. So far, two suspects (a father and son team) have been arrested, along with another suspect who was detained in the UAE over the weekend.
-HomeFront-
Minnesota: Jeff Johnson, a candidate in the race for Governor of the state, has suspended his campaign after a personal family tragedy took place over the weekend. Johnson's daughter (Hallie Tobler) was murdered by her husband on Saturday night at their apartment in St. Cloud. Due to this extremely brutal murder, her father has suspended his campaign.
Analyst Comment: Right now it's not clear as to if this brutal murder had anything to do with targeting Johnson's campaign. After all this could be a horrific example of domestic incidents that are far too common throughout the United States. However, this is still a sensitive political issue to be aware of, considering the overall tensions throughout the state.
Florida: Over the weekend, a separate gubernatorial candidate was targeted more directly, as the lawn outside James Fishback's home was set on fire by an arsonist. The fire was allegedly set when Fishback was not at his residence, and was discovered as he returned home. So far no suspects have been identified regarding this case.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Arizona, the FBI has released surveillance footage regarding the abduction of Nancy Guthrie, who was reported missing after being dropped off at her home on the evening of January 31st. The FBI has released video footage and still images of the suspected abductor, and are requesting the public's help in identifying the suspect. This footage was recovered from the Nest security camera at the residence, which was allegedly unavailable during the initial phases of the investigation due to the Guthrie family not buying a subscription plan for this particular device. However, due to Nest (and other similar WiFi camera companies) partnering with Law Enforcement to provide federal access to all cameras, this imagery was recoverable since this footage is being stored in a database somewhere, regardless of whether or not a customer is paying (or even knowledgeable of this storage).
Concerning other surveillance footage which might have captured the suspect, the Catalina Foothills community is a spiderweb of surface roads, which appear at first to offer unlimited avenues for insertion/extraction to the target residence. However, following the roads in an outward spoke search pattern, originating at the site of the kidnapping, reveals that nearly all of these roads intersect with a main highway, which at some point intersects a traffic camera, or storefront security cameras. Of course, a malign actor only needs one route to pull off a crime, so "nearly all" is not good enough for investigative purposes. But, this does help narrow down the potential escape routes for the criminal, if it is assessed that the suspect and the victim actually left the community at all.
Federal authorities have already demonstrated that they can pull footage from cameras that don't have a subscription package, and most of the roads that offer good escape paths transit directly in front of residences that actually have personally-owned security cameras. As such, it's highly unlikely that the assailant simply disappeared into the night without a trace. Someone, somewhere has the suspect (and probably the victim too) on camera, and federal authorities almost certainly already have this footage.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-02-10 00:08:57 CET

//The Wire//2300Z February 9, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TERROR ATTACKS AND CASH VAN HEISTS STRIKE ITALY. SUSPECT IN POSSIBLE BIOWEAPONS FACILITY IN NEVADA RELEASED BY JUDGE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Italy: Several kinetic events have been reported throughout the nation as the region hosts the Olympic games.
In the region of Puglia, a cash transit van was ambushed on State Road 613 (SS613), which involved thieves boxing in a cash van, forcing the vehicle to halt on the highway near a bridge just north of Torchiarolo. Once the vehicle was halted, one team of thieves stopped oncoming traffic while another team conducted an explosive breach of the van. A total of 6x gunmen took part in the attack, and injuries were reported as a result of the explosion and subsequent gunfire, however no fatalities have been reported so far.
Other than daring heists on the roadway, more deliberate terror attacks have also taken place over the past few days. Three separate attacks were reported on Italian rail lines, all targeting main lines being used heavily by participants of the Olympics. One switching and control station was set on fire in Pesaro and communication/switching cables were cut on one rail line in Bologna. Adjacent to this site, an IED was discovered emplaced on an undisclosed track (which was found and rendered safe before it detonated).
Analyst Comment: Be it gangs of thieves, or the ecoterrorist groups that normally conduct attacks on rail lines, Italy will probably be host to a continuation of kinetic activity, as long as the Olympics bring increased focus (and tourism) to the nation.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Nevada, several more developments have come to light regarding the Chinese-linked biolab (and suspected biological weapons research facility) that was discovered in Las Vegas last week. Over the weekend Ori Solomon, the Israeli citizen who was serving as the property manager of the Vegas facility, was released from jail on the order of Judge Elayna Youchah. As such, it's quite likely that Solomon will be on a plane very soon, that is, if he isn't setting up another bioweapon facility right now. Per the court documents and media reports, Solomon is being portrayed as the innocent Property Manager of the residence, who had nothing to do with any of this. However, this is probably not true. After this cell was discovered and the local ringleader (David He) was arrested, Solomon stepped into a more active role in managing the Vegas biolab. This is strongly indicated by the fact that David He called Solomon from prison 467 times after his arrest. Solomon's job as a property manager gave him both the access and the justification to be at this house daily, checking on the biological experiments that were ongoing at this site. This access also granted him a reason to be in the general neighborhood itself, which is not just residential...several churches, schools, and community centers are all located with a few hundred yards of the residence where highly infections diseases were illegally being stored in containment conditions so poor that the cleaning staff got deathly sick.
Concerning others that are involved in this case, the illegal biolab itself was being run out of a residential address that was also serving as an AirBnB facility. Around the time of the raid, customers were staying at this residence, not knowing that a biological weapons facility was being run out of the garage (which was usually kept locked). None of these people have been quarantined, despite confirmed reports of biological materials leaking from this facility, and making innocent bystanders ill. It is also not clear as to if any of the AirBnB customers that stayed at this site over the past year have been contacted to determine if they have unwittingly been infected.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-02-08 01:18:27 CET

This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/vz-a7j6RKoQ

2026-02-08 01:18:08 CET

//The Wire//2300Z February 6, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IRANIAN FORCES HIJACK TWO VESSELS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. GRENADE ATTACK REPORTED IN FRANCE. RUSSIAN GENERAL TARGET OF ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT IN MOSCOW. DETAILS EMERGE REGARDING TERROR ATTACK IN GURNEE, ILLINOIS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Yesterday Iranian forces seized two tanker vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. These vessels have not officially been named yet, however the footage provided by the IRGC-N indicates these were smaller, more-regional tankers carrying fuel to other locations around the region. Otherwise, on the diplomatic front, the talks between Iranian and American officials concluded today without much note, other than mainstream media sources claiming that the Iranians have refused to halt the enrichment of Uranium.
Analyst Comment: The Iranians say this quite literally every time, and today was only the first day of negotiations. The positive news is that neither side flipped the table and walked away; all parties have further talks planned after today's meetings in Oman.
Russia: Overnight, a high-ranking General was the victim of an attempted assassination in Moscow. The Kremlin states that Vladimir Alekseyev was shot several times by an unidentified assailant, at his apartment near a pizza restaurant in northwest Moscow. LTG Alekseyev is serving as the deputy chief of Military Intelligence for the Kremlin.
France: This morning an attack involving explosives was carried out in Grenoble, after two assailants threw a hand grenade into a beauty salon near the downtown area. The suspects recorded a video of the attack, and provided a video confession as well, which linked the attack to Fenec38, an Algerian gang/criminal group.
Analyst Comment: Details on this exact criminal group are hard to come by, at least in English-speaking publications, so it's possible that this is a smaller group trying to improve their standing in the web of criminal groups that now completely dominate the city of Grenoble.
This attack also bears striking resemblance to another attack, carried out in the same manner, on a similar target, in the same city, using the same weapon. Back in February of last year, a hand grenade was tossed into a bar/lounge in Grenoble, near the old Olympic village.
Concerning today's target (the beauty salon), it's not entirely clear as to why this target was chosen. However, as per the Google Maps listing for the site, some sort of home health company is also registered at this address.
While no direct causal link can be established between the two incidents beyond the similarities already observed, it must be noted that these individuals are ruthless killers. In both cases, soft targets were chosen to inflict as much violence on innocent people as possible, with the attacker today throwing the hand grenade quite literally at the feet of a child in the salon. It is only by sheer miracle that the six people inside the salon only suffered minor wounds, and were not immediately killed outright. Instead, the shrapnel from the grenade missed every person in the salon, and none of the victims even required hospitalization, at least according to local media reports. Nevertheless, the attackers attempted to carry out the mass murder of innocent people, continuing what has become a trend throughout France, as ordinary street gangs and organized crime groups alike continue to wage war on the nation.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Illinois, more details have come to light regarding a vehicle ramming attack and stabbing incident that took place in Gurnee on Monday. At the time, local media initially reported that the incident was an accident involving two people struck by a car in the parking lot of Gurnee Mills Mall.
However, after the details of the arrest that was made became public, the suspect's name was posted and the full story became clear. This incident was not an accident, but rather a deliberate terror attack, as confirmed by social media posts made by the attacker after the ramming attack. The suspect, who has been identified as Katelyn Harmon, initially rammed two people with her vehicle in the parking lot of Hobby Lobby at Mills Mall. After conducting this attack, she fled the scene in her vehicle, parking behind a strip mall a few hundred yards to the southwest of the initial attack site. At this location, the suspect recorded a video for social media, claiming credit for the attack. Shortly after the video was taken, a man parked his vehicle next to the suspect, in the adjacent parking space. The suspect then exited her vehicle, and the second phase of the attack began, with the suspect using the butcher knife that she showcased in the social media video to slash one of the man's tires, and stab one of his windows. A physical altercation developed between Harmon and the man, which resulted in the man being stabbed by the suspect as he attempted to gain control of the knife. The unidentified man was able to restrain and disarm the suspect, before gaining the attention of a police officer who patrolling the scene of the earlier ramming incident. As the officer attempted to intervene, Harmon grabbed the knife and approached the officer, who used a taser to bring the third phase of the attack to a halt.
Concerning motive, the attacker appears to be either transgender or of questionable status in the video confession posted on social media, and several references were also made to contradictory religious ideology, in addition to homelessness. In any case, this attack meets the criteria for a Complex Coordinated Attack (CCA), as multiple weapons were used during the phases of the attack (the vehicle and the knife). Harmon is currently in jail awaiting trial.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-02-05 23:16:28 CET

//The Wire//2300Z February 5, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ARIZONA POLICE HELICOPTER CRASHES DURING SMALL ARMS ENGAGEMENT IN FLAGSTAFF. MORE DETAILS EMERGE REGARDING CHINESE BIOLAB IN VEGAS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
California: More details have come to light regarding the Chinese Biolab discovered in Las Vegas a few days ago. After the story became public, several eyewitnesses have come forward to local media groups, with additional testimony that provides more context. One of the housekeepers that serviced the Vegas residence where the biolab was discovered had actually previously reported the facility to the FBI on January 9, 2026. Per this testimony, herself and several other cleaning staff members became severely ill after working in the residence back in April of 2025.
Analyst Comment: Eyewitness testimony must always be considered with a grain of salt, however if this report is accurate, the FBI would have been aware of this facility (and the fact that random people were being infected by whatever biological materials were there), for much longer than they let on.
Arizona: Early this morning, a downed-aircraft incident was reported as one Arizona DPS helicopter crashed in the vicinity of a an active shooter situation. The incident began as officers responded to call of domestic violence on W Shellie Drive at approximately 08:31 pm last night. As officers arrived on scene, the suspect engaged the officers with small arms fire, which kicked off a protracted small arms firefight that continued over the next two hours. During this time, the suspect fired upon officers from multiple rooftops throughout the area, maneuvering between multiple positions throughout the engagement.
Approximately two hours into the firefight, an Arizona DPS helicopter (Registration: N56AZ, Callsign: RANGER 56) arrived on scene to assist officers on the ground in understanding where the suspect was hiding. Shortly after the helicopter arrived on scene, the aircraft crashed in the elevated terrain a short distance from the initial reported shooting location. Both the pilot and the onboard paramedic were killed in the crash. The initial suspect that began the engagement was arrested at almost the same time as the crash, and has been hospitalized with non-life threatening small arms wounds.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: So far, official statements by the Arizona Department of Public Safety don't confirm exactly what happened regarding the helicopter crash in Flagstaff last night. No answers were provided during this morning's press conference, nor was any causal link mentioned between the engagement on the ground, and the helicopter crash.
Since the crash itself was catastrophic, it will take some time for an investigation to determine if any small arms rounds struck the helicopter or not. It would not be the first time that hardened criminals, when backed into a corner, fired off a burst of small arms fire at a police helicopter, which resulted in catastrophe. Considering the detail of the suspect being located on rooftops during this engagement, this is the most likely theory at the moment. Otherwise, there is not much information in the public realm to state with confidence that this is exactly what happened.
The ADS-B feed of the flight path does not provide much context, other than one detail which might be useful for investigators. As the aircraft arrived on scene, the pilot began a low-pass flyover of the target compound, directly over the residence that the shooting was reported at. After this low-pass over the target compound, the aircraft was observed climbing out to the north and west, before flying in an erratic manner. Locals reported hearing many gunshots and explosions in the general direction of this residence, shortly before the helicopter was observed crashing. Immediately before impact, the ADS-B feed for the aircraft abruptly halts, indicating that the aircraft at least partially broke apart before impacting the ground.
From the time of the low-pass (where small arms fire may have damaged the aircraft), to the very last transponder ping, approximately 10 minutes had elapsed. This is enough time for a mayday call to be made over the radio, if the crew noticed that they might have taken effective ground fire. As such, the flight data recorder information for this period of time will be crucial for determining the cause of the crash. However, due to the strategic implication of an aircraft possibly being shot down by small arms fire, it would be prudent to consider this a possible SAFIRE (Surface-to-Air Fire) incident at the present time.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-02-05 01:20:18 CET

//The Wire//2300Z February 4, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: FLESH EATING PARASITE CONCERNS GROWING IN AMERICAN SOUTHWEST. TRAVEL WARNINGS ISSUED FOR CUBA. ICE DRAWDOWN CONTINUES IN MINNEAPOLIS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Cuba: Over the past few days travel alerts to the island have been issued by the US State Department, regarding Cuba's failing electrical grid. US Persons in Cuba are advised to be prepared for prolonged blackouts and fuel shortages, as infrastructure failures continue to increase in severity throughout the nation.
Middle East: This afternoon, conflicting reports emerged concerning Friday's scheduled negotiation meeting between the United States and Iran. Some reports state that the meeting has been canceled altogether, however SECSTATE Marco Rubio made statements at roughly the same time as these reports, which seemed to indicate the meetings were going ahead as planned. Later on this afternoon, the talks were back on, after a few powers throughout the region smoothed things over.
-HomeFront-
Minnesota: As per a press briefing this morning, ICE has begun the drawdown in Minneapolis. Tom Homan stated that 700x federal law enforcement personnel would be leaving the city, reducing the total posture by around 25%, with the overall goal of ending the surge as soon as possible. Otherwise, civil disruption operations continue to be carried out in the Twin Cities as before, with most activists continuing to harass and tail ICE convoys.
California: Sunday evening a Catholic school was broken into and vandalized in Long Beach. Holy Innocents Catholic School was burglarized and desecrated over the weekend, with much of the facility being destroyed. Yesterday the DoJ announced that a civil rights investigation will at some point be opened on this case, however no arrests have been made so far.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Throughout the American southwest, concerns are growing regarding the spread of New World Screwworm (NWS), the infamous flesh-eating parasite that infects livestock. NWS was at one point eradicated in the United States, however after decades of neglecting management practices in Central and South America, NWS is back with a vengeance, and has been creeping northward for a few years. Yesterday, one case was detected in Florida after a horse from Argentina was attempted to be brought into the country carrying the parasite. A few days ago, Texas formally issued a disaster declaration concerning the spread of NWS, after local authorities detected several dozen more cases throughout northern Mexico.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-02-04 02:11:31 CET

//The Wire//2300Z February 3, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: US NAVY SHOOTS DOWN IRANIAN DRONE NEAR THE ABRAHAM LINCOLN CSG. IRANIAN FORCES ATTEMPT TO HIJACK STRATEGIC AMERICAN OIL TANKER. CHINESE BIOLAB RAIDED AT RESIDENCE IN LAS VEGAS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: This afternoon the US Navy shot down an Iranian drone that was approaching the USS Abraham Lincoln CSG, as it was conducting maneuvers off the coast of Oman. No further details have been provided on the shootdown, though Iranian forces have continued drone surveillance of American forces in the region.
Earlier this morning, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Center (UKMTO) reported an incident in the Strait of Hormuz, involving unidentified forces in small boats hailing a commercial vessel in an attempt to persuade the vessel to stop. This vessel was later identified as the M/T *STENA IMPERATIVE*, and the ship was escorted through the Strait by an American warship.
Analyst Comment: Iranian forces hijacking ships is an extremely common occurrence throughout the region, but trying to snatch the STENA IMPERATIVE was a bold move. This is not just any random oil tanker, this vessel is one of the main ships in the US Navy's Tanker Security Program, serving as one of the main vessels transporting fuel and oil around the world for the US Navy. As such, the Iranians attempting to target a strategic military resource, on the same day that negotiations began regarding their nuclear program, is probably not a wise move when it comes to avoiding American airstrikes.
-HomeFront-
Minnesota: The checkpoints that were established over the weekend in south Minneapolis were dismantled by the Minneapolis Police Department yesterday evening. No arrests were made at the scene.
Throughout the Twin Cities intelligence collection efforts continue, as ICEWatch activists remain observant for ICE activity. More direct crimes are also being committed as well, as activists have begun lasing Border Patrol aircraft, continuing a tactic that has been used in other far-left strongholds throughout the nation.
Nevada: Yesterday, details came to light regarding a raid that was conducted by the FBI at a residential address in Las Vegas on Saturday. During the raid, centrifuges and freezers allegedly containing samples of infectious diseases were found at this location, along with approximately 1,000 dead mice. One individual, Ori Solomon, was arrested at the scene, and is assessed to be the property manager for this facility.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The kingpin involved in the Nevada biolab appears to be David He, also known as Jiabei "Jesse" Zhu...the same individual presently indicted for setting up similar biological facilities in Reedley, California back in 2022. During that initial investigation, Jessie was indicted for allegedly selling fake COVID test kits. However, after the story went viral, it eventually became clear that a number of suspects were not actually making fake medical devices (as they were initially charged with)...they were actually running a clandestine biological weapons facility. The Reedley Lab was investigated by multiple entities, to include a Congressional Committee that was stood up to investigate this location.
The Reedley Biolab was found to be running multiple illegal biological research projects, all of which appeared to be weaponizing diseases such as tuberculosis, Ebola, and agricultural blight, for release within the United States. As this 2022 case is still being prosecuted, not many details have been made public, beyond the initial DoJ notice on the arrests. At the time of this earlier case, the CDC famously did not cooperate with the investigation, did not test all samples, and tried to cover up the incident altogether (as indicated by the Congressional report, at least).
Perhaps the most concerning aspect of the latest chapter in this saga is the manner in which the second lab was actually discovered. This facility was not discovered by the FBI, but rather by a local housing code enforcement officer who noticed a garden hose running into the residence on Saturday. As this is a common observance with illegal narcotics operations, authorities were alerted, and only after the site was investigated did it become clear that the property owner was the same guy that had already been indicted on multiple charges pertaining to that 2022 case.
Consequently, one of the most concerning details of this case is not just the potential biological weapons facilities, but the fact that the FBI could not be bothered to do a simple property search for any residential facilities that were linked to the original suspected bioterrorist. David He was not a codename...it was his actual legal name, and the Vegas property was legally in his name. The FBI had not conducted a simple property search to find out what other sites he might have owned, and as a result, it's likely that biological weapons research was being carried out in Vegas this entire time.
Considering these developments, it is not clear as to how many other biological weapons facilities are currently being run by David He's network, which have not yet been discovered.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-02-03 01:40:30 CET

//The Wire//2300Z February 2, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ACTIVIST GROUPS CONTINUE PROJECTING FORCE IN MANY AMERICAN CITIES. TRUMP SAYS NO FEDERAL SUPPORT FOR RIOT CONTROL UNLESS STATES ASK FOR IT. EPSTEIN FILE RELEASE CONTINUES TO IMPLICATE HIGH-RANKING POLITICIANS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
Minnesota: Demonstrations and protests continued over the weekend, with intensification on some fronts. In South Minneapolis, ICEWatch Vehicle Checkpoints have been established on Cedar Avenue, creating another "Autonomous Zone" running along Cedar, from 32nd to 34th Street. These checkpoints are checking identity documents and running license plates through their own ICEWatch license plate databases to check if a vehicle/person is affiliated with ICE. Of note, the Minneapolis Police Department has addressed these individuals manning this illegal checkpoint, however after the initial warning was given, no follow-up contact has been made.
Analyst Comment: For additional geospatial context, one block to the south of the most southern checkpoint is another site to be aware of, the headquarters for the Corcoran Neighborhood Organization. The headquarters for this NGO serves as a Center of Gravity (CoG) for anti-ICE organization throughout the local area. As such, this site is likely serving as a static Observation Post spotting vehicles for these checkpoints.
Washington D.C. - President Trump issued guidance regarding the growing riot season throughout the United States, which will remove federal resources from responding to riots unless the city/state explicitly asks for federal assistance. Otherwise, federal forces will be deployed to protect federal buildings and installations in more kinetic cities, as the violence continues to escalate.
Analyst Comment: On paper, this is really how it's always been since federal resources are not usually activated unless the state requests it first. However this messaging conveys that the overall plan is to let liberal cities burn due to their own policies, so it seems. As such, for any innocent people caught in the crossfire, it would be wise to prepare for an intensification of riot activity nationwide moving into the spring/summer months, now that the one entity that rioters are actually scared of (federal forces) are publicly taking a reduced role.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In addition to the chaos unfolding around the nation, the recent release of Epstein Files has swept the internet as many people comb through the records to potentially identify perpetrators involved in Epstein's extremely large network.
Regardless of being able to make sense of all of this at the present time, the real-world effects have already begun concerning this latest document release. In the United Kingdom, Lord Mandelson has resigned from the Labour Party after getting caught with his pants down in the files, and (former) Prince Andrew is likewise in even more hot water than he already was due to his association with Epstein. In Norway, Crown Princess Mette-Marit has apologized publicly for her relationship with Epstein, which the latest round of emails suggest was extremely personal and graphic. Otherwise, a general trend is emerging regarding the other few thousand people who's emails to Epstein got released, which usually involves some colorful email or post on social media defecting from their involvement with Epstein. As such, a lot of "I'm sorry for being friends with Epstein" emails are being sent out right now from a lot of influential and powerful people.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-02-01 01:32:05 CET

This week's intel update is out 👍https://youtu.be/Gh8VyeVFSF0

2026-01-31 00:53:18 CET

//The Wire//2300Z January 30, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: NEW FED CHAIR ANNOUNCED. ANTI-ICE GROUPS REORGANIZING AFTER SIGNAL CHAT LEAK TEMPORARILY DISRUPTED OPERATIONS IN MINNEAPOLIS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
New Jersey: Governor Mikie Sherrill announced the creation of a government database to track ICE agents throughout the state. Residents have been encouraged by the Governor herself to conduct intelligence collection of ICE operations, and upload reports to a government-created web portal.
Analyst Comment: This portal had not been released yet, however it's expected to be launched soon. This follows similar efforts from around the country, as counter-ICE organization becomes sanctioned by many state governments.
USA: Around the nation, various protests and demonstrations were carried out today, largely centered around anti-ICE causes. In Minneapolis, crowds formed again at City Hall and the Whipple Federal building, which has seen a persistent (albeit dwindling) turnout over the past few days. Other demonstrations were also carried out in Maine (where ICE surge operations are coming to an end), as well as New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Washington, the timeless tradition of dumping information on a Friday has continued with several different developments. On the economic front, this morning President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. In addition to naming a new Fed Chair, a few more names have dropped as well, mostly in the form of a few million pages of Epstein files being released. Around 3 million allegedly new documents and thousands of videos have been posted online by the Department of Justice, however it will obviously take some time to determine if any of this information is truly new, or helpful for determining the national security implications of this case.
On a related note, indications and warnings are mounting regarding another round of strikes in Iran. Nothing is certain at the moment, and rhetoric has been flying all around, but the US is moving a lot of military aircraft into the region at an increasing rate. Al-Udeid Airbase (the facility that is the chief target for Iranian retaliation) still has not been evacuated yet, however, there are currently a few exercises involving aircraft movement throughout the region...exercises that provide a convenient reason to stage forces throughout the area. In any case, it's all speculation at the moment and only time will tell as to if the United States is going to follow through on the rhetoric to conduct strikes once again.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-01-29 00:34:36 CET

//The Wire//2300Z January 28, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TENSIONS BUILD IN MIDDLE EAST AS AMERICAN CARRIER STRIKE GROUP ENTERS THE REGION. COUNTER-ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES NATIONWIDE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Tensions are stirring up throughout the region once again as the Abraham Lincoln CSG arrives in theater. President Trump posted remarks on his Truth Social account this morning, threatening military strikes if IRGC leadership does not come to the negotiating table.
Analyst Comment: Right now, there aren't too many indications of an imminent war, though kinetic strikes can always be carried out by long-range bombers, just like last time. The "armada" as referenced in President Trump's post is really just a standard Carrier Strike Group, with other support vessels already being in theater to plus-up the military posture. Various military exercises and show-of-force demonstrations are already underway throughout the Arabian Gulf, which also add to the increase pressure being placed on Iranian officials to seek a deal with the United States.
-HomeFront-
Minnesota: Protests and Demonstrations continue as before. Most demonstrations overnight were carried out by the Party for Socialism and Liberation (PSL), a Communist Revolutionary group linked to many other demonstrations. Separately, an incident was reported at the Urban League Twin Cities building in North Minneapolis, which involved Rep. Ilhan Omar being sprayed with an unknown substance by an assailant during a speech. The attacker was subdued immediately at the scene, and Rep. Omar continued her speech after the incident. The suspect was later identified as Anthony Kazmierczak, and the mystery substance in the syringe was tested to be apple cider vinegar.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Around the United States, a state of unease has slowly been growing over the past few weeks, with demonstrations transitioning into civil unrest more regularly, with hotspots beginning to take form in other areas than just Minneapolis. Just examining one of these hotspots as an example, assaults and fights at public events are common in Philadelphia as anti-ICE activists become more organized throughout the city.
Throughout Philadelphia, the main groups in play are the New Sanctuary Movement of Philadelphia (NSM), which serves as a Command and Control (C2) cell for organizing demonstrations (such as the one today at city hall), in addition to providing anti-ICE training sessions at local churches and other religious institutions. Another group responsible for mobilization in south Philadelphia is the Juntos organization, which mostly handles strategic planning for anti-ICE efforts, to include running intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance networks throughout the city. There are a handful of other smaller cells and groups around the city as well, all with separate command structures and organization, but all united by the same general goal of resisting the enforcement of immigration law. All of these groups have been around for years, and none of this is unique to just one city...every city has had a dozen networks like this functioning for decades. However most of these organizations have seen a surge of membership and participation in the wake of the Minneapolis riots, and now that certain political developments are being worked on to de-escalate the situation in Minneapolis, groups in other cities are working to escalate the situation in their areas, using the lessons that have been learned so far in the Twin Cities.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-01-27 23:46:05 CET

//The Wire//2300Z January 27, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UNREST CONTINUES IN MINNESOTA. FEDERAL AGENTS CONDUCT WIDESPREAD RAIDS IN ARIZONA. ANTI-ICE ACTIVISTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTELLIGENCE NETWORKS IN MAINE, AS DIRECTED BY THE STATE ATTORNEY GENERAL.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
Minnesota: Riots continued overnight as activists remained steady in the targeting of Minneapolis hotels suspected of hosting ICE agents. Last night, the SpringHill Suites in Maple Grove was targeted due to suspicions that senior Border Patrol leadership was staying at the location. At this hotel, rioters gathered at the main entrance and attempted to breach the facility, however the state of unrest was quickly put down by Maple Grove Police who turned out in force.
Analyst Comment: Maple Grove is technically not within the City Limits of Minneapolis, and therefore has a different Mayor. The Minneapolis Police Department was not involved in this crowd control effort whatsoever, as it fell outside of their jurisdiction. Most of the officers who responded were from the Maple Grove Police Department and supplemented by State Police. As such, this particular response is very likely not correlated with any change in policy within the city of Minneapolis itself.
Maine: Anti-ICE demonstrations continue as before, as local government officials begin entrenching resistance measures. Attorney General Aaron Frey has established a state-sponsored informant tipline for the purposes of tracking ICE agents, which coordinates intelligence reports regarding the activities of ICE agents throughout the state. Residents of Maine can email in reports of ICE sightings, and other intelligence reports directly to the Attorney General's office.
Arizona: Yesterday afternoon, multiple sites throughout the state were raided by Homeland Security investigators, and most of the targeted sites were Zipp's Sports Grill establishments. At the time of the raids (which targeted about 15x sites around the state) the reason for the raids was not known. However ICEWatch spotters, seeing green uniforms, assumed this was some sort of immigration policing effort. However, this appears to pertain to a different investigation concerning a large-scale criminal enterprise involving drugs, identity theft, fraud, and other crimes.
Analyst Comment: Activist intelligence networks still showed up suspiciously quickly to the scene of all raids, turning out in numbers to carry out disruption operations for what they thought was an immigration enforcement operation. ICE personnel were observed on scene at a few sites to arrest any illegals that were incidentally discovered during the raids, and they were harassed by the mob as the operation was ongoing.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: On the political front in Minneapolis, several developments are underway, which will affect the situation on the ground. Following President Trump's phone call with Gov. Walz yesterday afternoon, rumors have been circulating widely regarding what the next steps are in this campaign. Whispers of everything from an abandonment of the mission, to key personnel shifts circulated yesterday evening, most of which have been hard to verify and probably mostly false. However, based on President Trumps verbatim statements, the general atmospherics are a de-escalation from the Federal side, while no similar de-escalation has been given in return amongst activist groups that are openly being run by government officials personally.
When it comes to civil unrest, perception is reality, and if these moves are perceived (by the rioters) as being a capitulation, this will embolden resistance within the city. Far-left groups do not care about 4D chess; they see a *perceived* weakness (regardless of if it's a true weakness), and they will double-down to target it. Failing to arrest and charge every single activist who raided Cities Church will also have a similar effect...others now know where the line is, namely that Christian Churches are not defended to the fullest extent of the law by federal authorities. This is why the same playbook is being used everywhere from Portland, Maine to Phoenix, Arizona...it apparently works quite effectively.
However, it will be especially important to recognize where these tactics are being used, but are not receiving the spotlight like Minneapolis has. Resistance is growing in Maine, and Arizona has been a hotbed of anti-ICE sentiment for a while. Around-the-clock protests are constant in Los Angeles, and major intelligence networks (such as Migra Watch) have tens of thousands of members and informants in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Moving forward, similar efforts should be expected to continue in most other states, as localized groups continue to organize anti-ICE efforts freely and openly, many of which are being directly organized by elected officials.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-01-27 00:28:13 CET

//The Wire//2300Z January 26, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: VIOLENCE ESCALATES IN MINNEAPOLIS AS COUNTER-ICE GROUPS CONTINUE TO OPERATE FREELY. UNREST EMERGES IN MAINE AS ANTI-ICE PROTESTS CONTINUE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
Maine: Anti-ICE demonstrations have begun to increase in Portland, which have continued in the same manner as observed in Minneapolis. Friday night, activists conducted disruption/noise-making efforts outside several hotels in Portland, which were suspected of housing ICE agents.
Minnesota: The situation in Minneapolis has continued to deteriorate, as riots became more violent and more organized over the weekend.
In the vicinity of the shooting site along Nicollet Avenue, civil unrest remained constant throughout the day of the shooting, with many different roadblocks being emplaced on the cardinal points surrounding the site. Similarly, every business on this street that had outdoor decorations, dumpsters, or anything else, found their property stolen so as to emplace the ANTIFA-style roadblocks that are customary of that organization. These roadblocks prevented the free flow of traffic, and remained in place until local police cleared the roadway in the early hours of the next morning.
Throughout Saturday night, instances of vandalism were reported, such as graffiti being spray painted at a Pizza restaurant on the corner of 27th and Nicollet. This restaurant is currently abandoned (and is therefore undefended Key Terrain) after closing down last year. Across the street from the Black Sheep Pizza Reference Point, two armed representatives of the Socialist Rifle Association (SRA) were observed posted up at the intersection of Nicollet and E 27th Street, conducting a short Presence Patrol operation.
Sunday morning, Area Denial operations were also noted around the city at large. At least one individual was arrested after emplacing homemade caltrops on the roadway, which were set up as vehicle obstacles in areas where federal forces were conducting patrols.
On the Civil Unrest front, Sunday evening riots were reported at area hotels, which have also become increasingly more violent. Several situations have been reported involving federal agents being swarmed. Overnight, federal Division of Prisons officers were attacked and wounded by rioters who attacked them at the Hilton Home2 Suites east of the University.
Concerning the composition and disposition of other forces, National Guard troops under the command of Gov. Walz have established a position adjacent to the Whipple Federal building, which is serving as a support site for protesters. Over the weekend, Walz's soldiers provided materiel aid to the protest group outside the Whipple Federal building, which took the form of handing out free hot chocolate and donuts to the demonstrators. This was mostly a squad-sized effort for PR purposes, and not a persistently occupied position.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In addition to the tactical situation on the ground in Minneapolis, one of the group chats used to coordinate the unrest activities was leaked over the weekend. This group chat is being used to dox and harass ICE agents, plan violence at riots, and coordinate and liaise with ICEWatch and Defend612 cells throughout the city.
This Signal chat leak also identified several businesses which are specifically working with ICEWatch to host space at their venues for Observation Posts to be stood up. Most restaurants and storefronts in Minneapolis have signs on their doors banning ICE from entering, but the active steps to provide materiel aid to ICEWatch personnel is another point of escalation that has been occurring for some time, without much notice.
In terms of other forces on the ground, local law enforcement and National Guard forces are either being ordered to stand down and not assist federal agents, or are being given menial taskings far away from the actual conflict zones, and therefore are combat ineffective. For context, Gov. Walz has also ordered his troops to change their uniform posture for identification purposes. Forces under the command of Gov. Walz are wearing Yellow Vests, separating them out from any Federal troops that may be deployed to the area.
More broadly, rioters have transitioned out of the phase of only causing civil unrest, and are getting more powerful and organized as directed by the State. Politicians at the city and state level are doing everything in their power to stoke up the violence, which now includes directly leading and liaising with the groups responsible for the unrest, as indicated by the Signal chat leaks.
It is this organization that sets the Minneapolis situation apart from other instances of civil unrest, and it is also why the use of Lethal Force will continually be applied when all other options to control the situation have failed. Federal agents cannot (and should not) be expected to allow themselves to be dragged by a crowd and beaten to death in the streets, and if there is a reasonable perception of that being a possibility the use of force will be justified. Therefore, more small arms engagements are a certainty as long as the attacks on ICE agents are being directed by groups linked to State officials.
However, even though Minneapolis is grabbing all of the headlines right now, other efforts are underway in other areas. Large-scale protests are growing in nearly every state, from Utah to Georgia. Due to the increased ICE operations, Maine is likely to be host to an elevated level of unrest for some time as demonstrators use the same Minneapolis playbook in other areas. As such, many other states are likely to witness increased protest activity by proxy, as long as the situation in Minneapolis remains hot.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-01-24 20:46:43 CET

//The Wire//2100Z January 24, 2026//
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: ICE-INVOLVED SHOOTING REPORTED IN MINNEAPOLIS AS ARMED SUSPECT ATTEMPTED TO SHOOT ICE AGENTS DURING ALTERCATION.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
Minnesota: This morning a DHS-involved shooting was reported at 2614 Nicollet Ave in Minneapolis. The engagement was captured on video, which showed a suspect fighting with agents for some time before shots were fired.
Immediately after the shooting, Rapid Response teams from Defend612 and ICEWatch maneuvered into the area, and occupied the Key Terrain around the shooting site. Rioters began gathering in the parking lot to the East of Nicollet Avenue, while other forces took up position on the perimeter, establishing roadblocks at the intersections of 26th and Blaisdell, 27th and Nicollet, and along 27th Street.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Right now the situation is highly dynamic and details are subject to change. Substantial Information Operations are underway to spin the Minneapolis shooting story with the intent of provoking riots. All news media outlets have shown the video of this incident, which doesn't clearly show what actually happened, and statements by local politicians have intended to stoke up riots.
Per statements by officials and video evidence of the scene before the shooting, the truth can be discerned rather easily. The suspect was not the target of a raid, but rather one of the infamous "observers" that have been following ICE agents around for weeks. In this case, this "observer" harassed ICE agents until they made contact with him to either move him out of the street, or arrest him on obstruction charges. At some point, the firearm was discovered, with this Hostile Intent escalating the situation. After the suspect resisted arrest, this intent transitioned into a Hostile Act as the suspect attempted to reach for his firearm during the scuffle. This prompted agents to engage the suspect before he could open fire.
Even considering these details, the truth never stopped any riot, so more civil unrest is likely to continue tonight, despite the incredibly cold temperatures. The suspect himself has not yet been identified, and DHS press releases have stated that the suspect had no identity documents on him. While it is speculative at this time, the lack of ID papers is a common tactic used by terrorists and other malign actors, as it makes the identification of their remains more difficult.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-01-24 00:13:35 CET

This week's intel update is out! Yeah, I know, a day early, but I wanted to remain flexible just in case tomorrow's snowstorm results in calamity. Hopefully it won't be too bad, but I wanted to be available to work the GhostNet, just in case 😎 Link: https://youtu.be/5WOGLg1wCSY

2026-01-23 00:15:33 CET

//The Wire//2300Z January 22, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ICE OPERATIONS CONTINUE IN MAINE. THREE ARRESTS MADE IN MINNEAPOLIS REGARDING CITIES CHURCH INCIDENT. SEVERE WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH AMERICAN SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
Maine: DHS surge operations continue, with arrests being noted in Portland and Lewiston. This campaign has been dubbed "Operation Catch-Of-The-Day", and seeks to target known violent criminals throughout the state.
Analyst Comment: So far, resistance to ICE is minimal, with most of the efforts to harass ICE not taking form as they have in Minneapolis. None of the madness of Minneapolis has carried over to Maine as of yet, and the arrest of extremely violent criminals is going smoothly so far. However, this should be expected to increase over time as various activist groups transition into the active resistance phases throughout the area.
Minneapolis: Overnight, several bomb threats were made at various locations around the city. Locals report that emails alleging the emplacement of pipe bombs were sent to several hotels, as well as the Federal Courthouse downtown. After some time, all threats were confirmed to be unfounded.
Following up on the raid at Cities Church which took place four days ago, three arrests have been made in conjunction with the investigation. William Kelly, Nekima Levy Armstrong, and Chauntyll Louisa Allen have been arrested for violations of the FACE Act.
Analyst Comment: Considering that these are the first arrests made during this high-profile incident, it's likely that these arrests will be used to fuel more demonstrations. Right now, the other agitators have not been arrested, so the Key Leadership that helped plan the initial raid is still free to plan other raids this Sunday.
Southeastern USA: A severe winter weather system is forecasted to arrive this weekend, bringing unseasonably heavy ice and snowfall for much of the American southeast. Upwards of 12 inches of snow and potentially several inches of ice are called for as the weather system descends on the region.
Analyst Comment: This much snow and ice in a region that typically doesn't get much at all, has a tendency to break things. If these forecasts are accurate, this will be a once-in-a-lifetime winter weather event that has the potential to severely impact public infrastructure in many areas.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Over the past few days, a new demographic of agitator has been noted interfering with ICE operations...postal workers. Around the nation, several postal workers have been observed harassing ICE agents while on the job this week, in official USPS vehicles while actively working a shift. In once case, a USPS worker recording ICE agents shouted at them that he had immunity from arrest, because he was a federal employee. This is obviously not true; being a mailman does not grant any sort of immunity from arrest at all, however this is clearly what many mail carriers who deliver our ballots seem to think.
In Minneapolis specifically, last month the Democratic Socialists of America (a far-left political militant organization) held self-described Communist Revolutionary protests for federal postal workers, on federal property. Postal workers at the Powderhorn and Lake Street Post Offices were upset that federal agents had used their parking lots to stage for immigration enforcement operations. As a result the DSA helped them to organize protests at their own federal facilities, which are becoming increasingly more active strongholds.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-01-22 00:48:30 CET

//The Wire//2300Z January 21, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UNITED STATES SEIZES ANOTHER OIL TANKER IN CARIBBEAN. ICE BEGINS SURGE OPERATIONS IN MAINE. DHS-INVOLVED SHOOTING REPORTED IN CALIFORNIA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Caribbean: Yesterday afternoon US SOUTHCOM announced the seizure of the tanker *SAGITTA*, continuing the operation to seize sanctioned vessels throughout the region.
Analyst Comment: This vessel had been on the sanctions list for a while, and regularly smuggled oil from Venezuela to Russia. This is the seventh oil tanker seized so far during this campaign.
-HomeFront-
California: This morning a DHS-involved shooting was reported in Los Angeles, in the vicinity of 126th Street and Mona Boulevard in Willowbrook. DHS agents were attempting to detain an illegal immigrant from El Salvador, who was wanted for violent crimes as well as human trafficking. During the operation to arrest him, he attacked agents, resulting in at least one officer discharging his weapon. Nobody was hit during the engagement, however the agent who engaged the suspect suffered unspecified wounds during the incident.
USA: Around the nation, yesterday's national walkout campaign took place largely without much incident or impact. Several small demonstrations were noted in a few major cities, but nothing major. Several larger demonstrations and walk out campaigns are scheduled for later this week, and a general nationwide labor strike is planned for Friday. Separately, the National March for Life is scheduled to take place in Washington D.C. on Friday, which is usually a fairly large event every year. Counter-protesters usually always make a presence, and since this year's demonstration coincides with a labor strike, it's possible that bigger crowds might turn out on all sides.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Maine, tensions are rising on a few different fronts. Following the recent scandals involving Somali fraud in Minneapolis, similar investigations have been underway throughout the state, which have uncovered fraud on an industrial scale in Lewiston. Over the past few weeks, more indictments and instances of fraud have come to light, which has brought increased scrutiny to smaller cities (such as Lewiston) where fraud appears to be running rampant.
Separately, on the immigration front, ICE has begun surge operations throughout the state. ICE agents have already been carrying out immigration law enforcement operations in the state for some time, however due to the national spotlight being placed on Minneapolis, activists groups in Maine are eager to combat ICE in their state as well.
Continuing the trend of the past few months, several hotlines have been established by NGOs, which specifically aid and abet illegals in evading capture in Maine. For context, the website of just one of these organizations, the Maine Immigrants' Rights Coalition, lists total of 112 different organizations and other NGOs that are in their network, which provide resources to illegals evading immigration law.
To put this number in perspective, Maine only has about 30 hospitals throughout the state, so there are approximately three times more immigration support facilities than there are medical facilities in the entire state. And on top of that, this is just one network and their partners; there are dozens more like this. They even have a handy link analysis chart already built on their own website, which shows the links between the dozens of agencies all fighting to interfere with immigration enforcement operations. This points not only to the significance of the funding and organization of all of this, but also how substantial of an effort is being undertaken to evade the enforcement of immigration law.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-01-21 00:41:48 CET

//The Wire//2300Z January 20, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: POLITICIANS IN MINNESOTA ENCOURAGE MORE ATTACKS ON CHURCHES. MASS DEMONSTRATIONS CONTINUE IN MINNEAPOLIS, WITH MORE PLANNED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
Oregon: Yesterday evening a small arms engagement was reported in Portland to the east of the Lloyd Center, at the corner of NE 21st Avenue and NE Clackamas Street. The incident began as a 911 call reporting a man with a knife, and when police arrived on scene two officers were shot. One suspect remains at large, and is considered to be armed and dangerous.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Minnesota, the situation throughout the Twin Cities remains as before. Several demonstrations and "walk out" protests are planned to take place throughout the week, some of which may become more kinetic than others. Many public school districts are hosting classes online this week, which means that many K-12 students will probably be in attendance at various demonstrations during school hours.
More locally to Minneapolis, demonstrations at the Whipple federal building have dwindled somewhat over the past few days, likely due to ineffectiveness in achieving any sort of goal (and also the cold weather conditions deterring a large turnout). However, operations to harass and intimidate the citizenry have increased substantially, with many reports of stalking and harassment becoming common not just around Minneapolis, but nationwide.
ANTIFA cells have begun building a national license plate database, compiling photos of random vehicles that are suspected of being used by ICE. This is a nationwide effort, but so far most reports on this website are originating from Minneapolis. This database is being used to post photos of what are mostly random vehicles that are identified as undesirable by activist groups. In reality, most of these vehicles are either rental cars or vehicles not affiliated with ICE at all. This line of effort (among many others) has resulted in a continuation of the trend of random citizens being targeted around the city.
Concerning the targeting of churches, these efforts are being encouraged by State-level elected officials in Minnesota. Transgender Rep. Leigh Fink (who is a male), openly encouraged the continuance of activists disrupting Christian worship services in a post on Facebook. Keith Ellison, the Attorney General for the State of Minnesota conducted an interview with Don Lemon, in which he endorsed the disruption of worship services at Cities Church (which Lemon himself participated in). This makes sense, as Ellison was also interviewed by Don Lemon on the morning of the attack, before the church was targeted. As such, the State government endorsing activities intended to intimidate or coerce a civilian population will result in an intensification of such efforts over the next few weeks.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-01-20 01:01:09 CET

//The Wire//2300Z January 19, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DOMESTIC INSURGENCY CONTINUES IN MINNEAPOLIS AS LYNCH MOBS BEGIN ATTACKING RANDOM CITIZENS. HARASSMENT AND INTIMIDATION OPERATIONS TARGETING CHRISTIAN CHURCHES ESCALATE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
Minnesota: The situation in Minneapolis has escalated to the next phase of destabilization, as demonstrated by many incidents that took place over the weekend. On Saturday, malign actors began assaulting and harassing random citizens throughout the city, as roving lynch mobs have begun conducting patrols to hunt anyone who looks like they might be an ICE agent.
In downtown Minneapolis, a man was nearly beaten to death on Portland Avenue by a mob who thought he was ICE because he was wearing a camouflaged jacket. Turns out, the man was actually an anti-ICE activist himself, but that did not matter to the mob at the time, and the man was rescued by police before the crowd could kill him.
Two blocks to the north of this attack site, a different man was also targeted by a mob, which attacked him on the street outside the Hennepin County Courthouse. This individual was also attacked again at the Gateway Parking Ramp, which resulted in the man receiving head wounds. One block to the south on 4th Avenue, a third man was beaten and forced to undress in front of a mob, who did not like the fact that he was wearing an American flag shirt.
In the more residential areas of the city, random people eating lunch at Clancy's Deli near W 38th Street were harassed by Anti-ICE activists, who thought they were ICE agents solely because they were wearing clean-cut clothing. In reality they were software engineers, but the discovery of this fact did not deter the vigilantes, which mobbed the establishment.
In Saint Paul, the general state of unrest has become more serious as well. The downtown Hilton Doubletree has closed it's doors to all customers due to the inability to keep visitors safe during this period of heightened unrest. This hotel was being used by ICE, and hotel staff have received so many threats on their lives, the decision has been made to close the hotel entirely for the time being.
Aside from the mobs attacking random people on the street, malign actors are also now targeting Christian Churches more deliberately. Sunday morning, a mob affiliated with Black Lives Matter and the NAACP targeted the Cities Church on Summit Avenue, which took the form of agitators bursting into the church during services, with the self-described goal of terrorizing the congregation. This operation was planned and given the name "Clandestine Operation Pull-up" by the instigators who coordinated the occupation of the church.
USA: Around the nation, similar efforts have been noted among Anti-ICE activists to target Christians. In Washington D.C. two blocks from the US Capitol Building, Christians going to Church have been harassed on the street by Anti-ICE activists attempting to prevent them from going to Church or otherwise intimidate them for their faith.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Minneapolis, a change in doctrine is occurring among malign actors, which is crucial to understand as the situation continues to deteriorate. Directing their anger at federal agents over the past two weeks has proven the futility of this action; ICE is not going anywhere and their protests are not stopping the enforcement of federal immigration law. Consequently, malign actors have turned their rage to a demographic which is purely innocent in all of this...the civilian populace. Taking a page out of the book of every single terrorist organization that ever has existed, activist groups are now deliberately attacking soft-targets such as random people walking down the street, as a way of taking out their anger on the helpless who cannot defend themselves.
This is why random citizens will continue to be targeted by malign actors; if the activists can't get ICE out of the city, they will burn the city to the ground simply to punish the rest of the civilian population. Scorched earth is now the name of the game, and the citizenry itself is now one of the main targets of far-left agitators and terrorists alike.
Concerning the incident at Cities Church specifically, it must be noted that this was not a protest...this was a lynch mob. The "activists" specifically wanted to find one of the Church pastors who they alleged was an ICE agent. For what purpose, it's not clear, but when an unruly mob barges into a Church during worship services and demands that a Clergyman be dragged out into the street, the situation is not going well.
However, Sunday's attack on a Church was still mostly just a test to see what they could get away with. Turns out, they can get away with quite a lot. As such, attacks on Churches will not only continue, but steadily escalate to the next phases to involve the use of violent, criminal acts committed by individuals and/or groups to further ideological goals. This is the textbook definition of terrorism, but this is also just the beginning. Now that activists know that disrupting church services is low-risk to them, groups around the United States will likely continue this tactic. The more militant groups which already are at this benchmark right now will escalate to the next rung on the ladder, which is the more direct use of force and violence. Time will tell how severe this will become, but it would be wise for all churches to consider what their response will be when/if activities like this are conducted in their parish.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-01-18 01:46:56 CET

This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/YVUKxdnxEyU

2026-01-17 01:56:18 CET

//The Wire//2300Z January 16, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DESTABILIZATION OPERATIONS CONTINUE IN MINNEAPOLIS AS ACTIVISTS EXPAND EFFORTS TO HARASS CITIZENS. VANDALISM EFFORTS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TWIN CITIES.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
Minnesota: The situation continues to steadily escalate in Minneapolis. Most of the overnight unrest was centered around the Whipple Federal Building, with individuals conducting more brazen attacks. At a few points during the night, the mob attempted to break down the perimeter fence surrounding the complex, while other crowds damaged vehicles entering and exiting the facility.
To the south, a total of 11x vehicles were vandalized at the Residence Inn in Eagan overnight, after far-left intelligence networks identified this facility as hosting ICE agents.
Analyst Comment: It's not clear as to if this was actually a positive ID on the behalf of the vandals; this could have just been a collection of random vehicles, but that did not seem to matter at the time of the vandalism.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Minneapolis, a new tactic is making an emergence among activist groups that are tailing ICE convoys. The general tactic of conducting reconnaissance to figure out where ICE vehicles are going continues, but because most of the activists are not the brightest bunch, they have sometimes been following around random vehicles, such as general contractors and random citizens going about their day. This has escalated to now include multiple reports of insurgents harassing citizens and forcing them to prove that they aren't ICE agents, and even after doing so, citizens continue to be harassed by militant activists simply for driving a vehicle that looks like it might potentially be used by ICE.
On the political front, local reports indicate that the school systems have become directly involved in stoking unrest, and encouraging schoolchildren to commit felonies. Parents in the Minneapolis/Saint Paul area have reported teachers giving their children whistles, and literature encouraging them to stalk, harass, and interfere with ICE operations. Several school districts within the Twin Cities area have also transitioned to online classes, deliberately for the purpose of shielding illegal families from ICE operations. Even though ICE has not conducted a single raid at any school in the United States, this rhetoric is actively being pushed by city officials. With the weekend arriving (which is also a holiday weekend), and with the knowledge that many "youths" will not be in school during the day, next week will probably result in an increase in activity throughout the city.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-01-17 01:52:41 CET

2026-01-15 21:53:57 CET

//The Wire//2100Z January 15, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UNREST ESCALATES IN MINNEAPOLIS AS ICE AGENTS AMBUSHED DURING ARREST. USA SEIZES ANOTHER TANKER IN CARIBBEAN.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Caribbean: This morning the United States seized another oil tanker, bringing the total to 6x oil tankers captured so far. The M/T *VERONICA* was boarded and seized this morning, continuing the interdiction of sanctioned vessels throughout the region.
-HomeFront-
Minneapolis: Last night unrest escalated following a more kinetic arrest in North Minneapolis. Yesterday afternoon, federal agents conducted a traffic stop in Hawthorne, in the vicinity of N 26th Avenue and N Lyndale Avenue. This traffic stop was targeting a known Venezuelan criminal, and during the incident the suspect attempted to flee the scene before crashing his vehicle and bailing on foot. The suspect fled between two local residences, and was pursued by officers. During this pursuit, two unknown assailants ambushed the agents, attacking them with shovels. At some point during the fray, one agent engaged the group of attackers, and ended up shooting the initial fugitive the leg. This small arms engagement awakened locals, and a riot immediately broke out at the shooting site.
After the situation became more active, federal agents were not able to maintain control of their vehicles, which were parked on N Lyndale Avenue, two blocks south of the shooting location. As authorities withdrew to a more safe and defendable area, these vehicles were broken into by insurgents, who broke into the arms locker inside at least two vehicles, stealing at least one rifle.
This morning, President Trump stated that he intends to invoke the Insurrection Act, if local politicians do not order local law enforcement to bring order to the city. Last night, Gov. Tim Walz gave a televised address (which has since been deleted due to audio dubbing issues), in which he directly ordered agitators to film ICE agents, and ordered citizens to keep their phones on them to record ICE in their neighborhoods anytime they are observed.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Minneapolis, various "independent journalists" (which are in fact activists themselves) also participated in the felonies, taking videos of sensitive documents and doxing ICE agents live on air. Andrew Mercado of Mercado Media and Jordan Chariton of Status Coup News both livestreamed themselves committing multiple felonies, such as stealing sensitive documents, challenge coins, and access badges to ICE facilities.
Considering the unrest observed last night, it is likely that the federal presence in Minneapolis will increase sharply in response. The vandalism of Homeland Security vehicles...when local police have been completely absent from all policing efforts regarding this unrest...is likely to prod federal agencies to increase the surge into Minneapolis even more. As Gov. Walz has continued to double-down on increasing the tensions in the city, it's absolutely certain that unrest will escalate over the next few days. Everything is primed and ready for more conflict, and the situation has transitioned out of the realm of law enforcement and into the realm of a more military-centric situation. The use of a tow rope to extract a weapons locker from a Homeland Security vehicle very likely got the attention of heavy-hitters in the White House, and the boldness of this one act has shown just how serious the situation is regarding the organization of the resistance to immigration enforcement operations.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-01-14 00:21:05 CET

//The Wire//2300Z January 13, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: LOS ANGELES TERRORIST RELEASED ON BAIL AFTER BEING CHARGED ONLY WITH A MISDEMEANOR. SOMALI FRAUD INVESTIGATIONS CONTINUE IN MAINE. RIOTS CONTINUE IN MINNEAPOLIS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
Minneapolis: The nightly riots continued yesterday evening, with unrest largely centering around the Whipple Federal Building. Tear gas has been deployed at this location daily, as rioters routinely try to block vehicles from entering/exiting the facility's Entry Control Point (ECP). Overnight, the perimeter at the Federal Building was expanded and fortified with more fencing. Throughout the city, most of the kinetic activity has been confined to E 34th Street, with tear gas and flashbangs being used regularly in a defensive role, to prevent rioters from physically assaulting ICE agents during arrests.
Maine: Investigations into Somali fraud have continued to expand. In the town of Lewiston, a Somalian man at the center of recent scandal has resigned a few days after being sworn in. Iman Osman was reportedly elected to office last month, even though he had been indicted by a federal grand jury for stealing firearms.
Analyst Comment: The Osman case has been developing for a while. Scandal first arose after citizens realized that he committed fraud on his campaign paperwork regarding his official residence. His official residence as per campaign paperwork is actually a vacant building that had been condemned because it had been used as a meth lab, so no one can verify that he actually lives in the district. Yesterday, the other members of the City Council voted to investigate his residency status, and Osman's only act as a City Councilor was to be the only vote against the investigation into himself. After the votes came out 6-1 against him, he resigned.
California: The man who carried out the vehicle ramming attack at the Iranian protest in Los Angeles has been identified as Calor Madanescht. As the attack only wounded two people (both of whom refused medical care at the scene), the assailant has only been charged with reckless driving. Madanescht's bond has been set at zero dollars (the standard for misdemeanors in California), and he was released from jail Monday afternoon.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In their own press release, the LAPD admits that he intended to ram the crowd and police officers, forcing several of them to jump out of the way (thus confirming deadly intent). It must be noted that the details of this case are pretty sketchy overall, considering how the attacker did not cause nearly as much damage as he could have. The odd statements found on the assailant's social media page, and the fact that he claims to be an Iranian refugee who happens to have an incredibly non-Iranian name, all add to the strangeness of this incident. However, just because this guy is the most ineffective terrorist in recent memory doesn't mean that he isn't still a terrorist. And now, he's back on the street at a time when Iranian protests are continuing throughout Los Angeles, and tensions remain palpably high in the Middle East.
Any time that tensions escalate overseas regarding a hot-button issue, these tensions nearly always are mirrored within the American homeland, which often manifest in attacks or at minimum clashes between protest groups. In this case, the FBI and the Joint Terrorism Task Force are investigating the attack, which is a moot point if the terrorist has been released by the local authorities. As anti-regime protests (of varying size) are fairly regular throughout Los Angeles, it's quite likely that the original assailant himself, but more likely others who will see that he got away with this, will conduct copycat vehicle ramming attacks over the next few days. Whether or not any terrorist is willing to capitalize on this is anyone's guess, but the situation is primed and ready for more deadly attacks.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-01-13 00:20:03 CET

//The Wire//2300Z January 12, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IRANIAN PROTESTS CONTINUE AS PRESIDENT TRUMP REAFFIRMS AMERICAN INVOLVEMENT. VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK REPORTED AT PROTEST IN LOS ANGELES. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN MINNEAPOLIS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The situation in Tehran remains tense as demonstrations continue. Over the weekend, pro-regime, pro-Ayatollah demonstrations were carried out, in opposition to the anti-regime protests which have been regular over the past two weeks.
Analyst Comment: As one might expect, the pro-regime demonstrations have been covered extensively by Iranian state TV, so the true scale of these demonstrations is not known. The internet outage continues nationwide, so the wider context of how serious the overall situation is developing is hard to discern. In Washington, President Trump has made increasingly more substantial statements regarding American involvement, indicating that the United States may become more actively involved in overthrowing the government of Iran in the very near future. These statements have been understandably vague, however in the context of the current demonstrations this is probably the early indication and warning of another round of American strikes (or more direct involvement) at some point.
-HomeFront-
USA: Around the nation, various protests and states of civil unrest continued over the weekend, with some being more kinetic than others. Protests remained constant in the usual cities; Portland, Minneapolis, Manhattan, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Washington D.C. all were host to anti-ICE demonstrations.
California: Anti-ICE protests continue state-wide, however other types of protests and demonstrations are underway, which have increased in severity over the past few days. In Los Angeles, a vehicle ramming attack was reported at an Iranian protest Sunday afternoon, which resulted in the wounding of several demonstrators. The demonstration itself was an anti-regime/pro-Shah protest, in support of overthrowing the Ayatollah. As demonstrators were marching up Veteran Avenue to the east of the Federal Building, one assailant drove a Uhaul truck north up Veteran Avenue, conducting a slow-speed ramming into the crowd, before coming to a halt at the corner of Rochester and Veteran Ave. After the vehicle came to a halt, the driver was detained by police, and has not yet been identified.
Analyst Comment: This incident was a deliberate attack, as evidenced by the signage that had been affixed to the Uhaul truck by the attacker. Despite these signs, however, the motive remains unclear as the messages are contradictory. The attacker's signs referenced, anti-Shah, anti-regime, and anti-Ayatollah sentiments, so it's not really clear what ideology the attacker was trying to support. Nevertheless, the attack was conducted for ideological reasons, even if they aren't immediately clear at the moment.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Minneapolis, a general state of unrest continued over the weekend, with various insurgent groups increasing the intensity of their efforts. Several independent journalists have been assaulted by the mobs at varying locations, as parts of the city descend into a state of lawlessness.
Most of the violence has been contained to a few hotspots around the city. In the downtown area, the Renaissance and Hilton Hotels have remained under a state of unrest following the destruction caused by rioters over the weekend. Smaller, but more long-term protest sites have been established at these locations, in addition to the persistent protest that is ongoing at the Whipple Federal Building to the south of the city.
This afternoon a riot broke out to the east of the Renee Good shooting site, at the corner of E 34th Street and Park Avenue. Rioters attacked ICE agents, which resulted in the deployment of tear gas to disperse the crowds. Kinetic events like this have been reported all over the city throughout the weekend, as rioters settle in for the long haul.
For those seeking to conduct their own risk assessment, the most important factor to consider is the potential...the organizations, funding sources, logistics, transportation, leadership, intelligence, and operational planning efforts are already in place, and these groups causing problems have been coordinating resources for more prolonged operations.
All that remains, is to let the funding flow more substantially, if powerful elites want to see the city burn. As this desire is an uncertainty, only time will tell how the unrest will develop.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-01-11 02:52:35 CET

This week's intel update is out 👍 Link: https://youtu.be/4DToNzR2I3g

2026-01-09 23:19:26 CET

//The Wire//2300Z January 9, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PROTESTS CONTINUE AS ANOTHER VEHICLE RAMMING AND SHOOTING INCIDENT INVOLVING FEDERAL AGENTS OCCURS OVERNIGHT. EVACUATIONS UNDERWAY IN KIEV AS RUSSIA STRIKES CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE SERVING THE CITY.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Ukraine: Overnight, major strikes were reported throughout the country, as Russian forces conduct large-scale missile strikes on multiple fronts. Russia conducted an Oreshnik IRBM strike on the Bilche-Volytsko-Uherske Natural Gas storage facility in western Ukraine. Large-scale drone strikes were also reported throughout Kiev, which damaged infrastructure including the city's water supply.
Analyst Comment: These strikes were the largest to hit Ukraine during the war so far. At the moment, battle damage reports have not been made public, however the use of an Oreshnik (which has only been used once so far during this war) would have undoubtedly crippled the gas storage facility, which serves most of Ukraine, including Kiev. The mayor of Kiev has urged citizens to evacuate, due to the inability for utility services to provide heating for most of the city.
Caribbean: This morning the United States seized another oil tanker attempting to flee Venezuela. The M/T *OLINA* was seized off the coast of Trinidad, as part of the widening operation to target Ghost Fleet vessels smuggling oil out of Venezuela. This brings the total number to 5x tankers seized so far.
-HomeFront-
Oregon: Yesterday evening, a state of civil unrest broke out after a shooting was reported involving Customs and Border Patrol. CBP agents conducted a traffic stop of a known TdA member and his wife on Southeast Main Street, in the vicinity of the Adventist Health campus. During the traffic stop, the TdA member attempted to ram officers with his vehicle, prompting the shooting. From there, the suspects egressed from the area to the east, where they were found by Portland PD officers on East Burnside St. with gunshot wounds. In the hours after the shooting, riots broke out throughout the city, and carried on throughout the night.
Utah: Yesterday evening an ambush was reported in Ogden, which originated from a domestic dispute. Local authorities initially responded to reports of shots fired at a single-family residential home on E 5800 South, in a subdivision south of the intersection of Hwy 89 and Crestwood Dr. When authorities arrived, the suspect began firing at police by engaging them from within the home with small arms. A barricaded-shooter situation developed, and after a few hours the suspect was detained by SWAT and identified as James Joseph Rios.
Concerning casualties, 2x neighbors were wounded by the shooter, during the initial engagement that prompted the police response.
Analyst Comment: What initially prompted this incident is unclear; at the moment it looks like Rios simply decided to start shooting at his neighbors either randomly, or due to a mental health incident. However, the investigation is still underway, so more details may come to light over the next few days.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Minneapolis, the situation is deteriorating on multiple fronts. Following the ICE-involved shooting a few days ago, ANTIFA forces have moved into the area to establish an "Autonomous Grieving Zone" at the site of the shooting involving Renee Good. Portland Avenue from E 34th Street to 33rd Street was blocked, with barricade obstacles preventing people from freely migrating through the area. Early this morning, locals reported that police moved in to clear the obstructions from the street, however a significant agitator presence remains throughout the area.
Around the city, atmospherics aren't great: rioters continue to cause civil unrest, and open and clear threats to federal agents have become routine. These threats aren't just screaming obscenities, or other generally nasty language...very elaborate and deliberate threats are being made. In one case a woman was heard shouting her plans to use Federal employment databases to hunt down and murder ICE agents when Trump leaves office, because their people will be in charge and have the historic payroll data of who was employed during this period of time. These very specific threats are not idle hyperbole, and convey the seriousness and deliberation that is already being undertaken by far-left groups to murder anyone enforcing US immigration law.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-01-06 02:47:45 CET

//The Wire//2300Z January 5, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: USA TAKES CONTROL OF VENEZUELA, EFFORTS TO EMPLACE TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT CONTINUE. SOMALI FRAUD SCANDAL SPREADS NATIONWIDE. ECOTERRORISTS SET FIRE TO BRIDGE IN BERLIN RESULTING IN ELECTRICAL BLACKOUTS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Germany: Over the weekend insurgents conducted a sabotage operation in Berlin, which targeted electrical infrastructure. The far-left terrorist group Vulkangruppe claimed credit for the attack that took the form of arson attacks on electrical pylons carrying power to much of southwest Berlin. The main attack took the form of arsonists setting fire to a bridge carrying electrical cables across the canal to the west of the power plant in Lichterfelde.
Analyst Comment: This attack was coordinated and timed to coincide with a cold snap that brought extremely cold weather throughout the region. The insurgents were trying to cause as much harm as possible, so they conducted the attack at a time when they knew that cold-weather casualties would be maximized. Local officials have stated that it might be as late as Thursday before repairs can be fully completed, due to the severity of the attack.
-HomeFront-
Minnesota: The Somali Fraud saga continues as dozens of independent investigations and lines of analytical effort result in even more fraud coming to light by the hour. This afternoon, Governor Tim Walz made the announcement that he is dropping out of the gubernatorial race due to the scandal.
Analyst Comment: Minnesota is no longer the only state in which major investigative efforts are underway. After the initial story broke in Minneapolis, others started looking around in their areas, only to find exactly the same kind of fraud...wholesale theft of taxpayer money, laundered through nonexistent daycares and other welfare programs. There are currently reports of widespread Somali fraud in Washington, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Idaho, Ohio, and Maine. Additional fraud activities are also being investigated in most other states, not just within the Somali community.
Ohio: Overnight a security incident was reported at the home of VP Vance. One assailant, who has been identified as William DeFoor, was able to get close enough to Vance's residence to break one of the exterior windows with a hammer, before being detained and arrested.
Analyst Comment: Considering the extreme threats to key leaders within in the US at this time, this reaction was probably expected. However, this incident was too close for comfort. One lunatic with a hammer getting this close proves that a terrorist with an S-Vest could get just as close, and the outcome would be very different.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Venezuela, the situation right now is still very dynamic. Though the American operation to capture Maduro was a one-time mission, the situation has not over yet. Maduro is out of the fight, but right now the United States has, in effect, taken control of Venezuela.
Maduro's allies, Generals, and decades of infrastructure (and criminal enterprise) does not simply evaporate overnight, and the removal of the head of the snake doesn't mean that the body doesn't also exist. In many ways it's business as usual in Venezuela, and in other ways significant changes are underway. President Trump has stated that the short term goal is to run Venezuela for a time, installing a puppet government until a transition to a more stable government can take place. Whether or not this will happen can be debated, but this is the plan for now.
Regarding Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricant (POL) facilities, President Trump stated that American oil companies will be running Venezuela's oil industry (and exporting that oil back to the United States).
Concerning additional strikes, President Trump stated that a wider conflict may be necessary, but has alluded to the raid to snatch Maduro being a one-and-done operation for now. American presence in the region is still staggering, as it has been for many months, so if things pop off domestically in Venezuela (or if operations expand to other South American nations), the United States has enough resources in theater to handle any resistance groups that may pop up now that a very substantial destabilization operation has reached it's zenith in Venezuela.
On that front, the story of Maduro's generals (and his government at large) is less clear. Obviously, his opposition is working to set up shop to control all domestic agencies and organziations throughout the nation. On the military front, the situation varies; most regular forces (such as the uniformed infantry, marines, etc.) have either fled or are carrying on as usual, so it's a mixed bag. Right now, it is only the irregular forces which have shown concern that their boss was given an all-expenses-paid red eye flight to New York. The Colectivos, the armed civilian militias which mostly served as Maduro's strongarm in the cities, have shown the most loyalty to their departed leader, and have activated themselves throughout Caracas to kidnap/kill anybody who they think were informants for the operation, but so far these efforts have been confined to roving bands of thugs rather than any sort of serious uprising.
The more organized paramilitary organizations haven't been interested in any more serious uprising efforts either, however these will be the groups to keep an eye on if things get squirrely over the next few months. The Bolivarian National Militia is a step above the street thugs of the Colectivos because they have more training and slightly more organization than unorganized gangs, but their leadership appears to be engaging in the timeless third-world tradition of absconding with duffel bags full of cash the very moment their boss gets yanked. The Special Action Forces (FAES, also generally known as the secret police kill squads) also haven't been heard from in a while. Speculating a bit, it would make sense for many FAES members to quietly disappear into the night...these guys were responsible for many brutal killings and doing Maduro's dirty work, so it's very likely they would be hanged at some point now that Maduro is gone.
Varying stories have been reported at the higher ranks of the more traditionally-uniformed military services in Venezuela...most Generals have stayed in power for now and are simply trying to figure out what to do next. Clearly, the American CIA has a very large presence in Venezuela, and have already lined up Maduro's successors. Amongst the Venezuelans, they are also probably trying to figure out which of them the CIA has picked to still have a job in a week's time, and which of them is due a black bag over the head. In South America, a LinkedIn rejection email might arrive in an unmarked van, so the leadership which hasn't already fled is probably waiting to see how all of this works out. Venezuela will have to be run by Venezuelans, so many probably think that there will always be a deal to be made.
It's Monday, Venezuela just started a whole new week. And it's very likely that this week will be filled with a lot of changes down south. Most people within the US government who would have had the real-world experience of toppling a South American nation has either died or retired by now, so only time will tell if this traditional American pastime will work out in the long run.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-01-03 21:13:53 CET

This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/hRFx4gtYYxM

2026-01-03 12:57:30 CET

//The Wire//1130Z January 3, 2026//
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: UNITED STATES BEGINS WAR IN VENEZUELA. MADURO CAPTURED IN OVERNIGHT RAID.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Caribbean: The war in Venezuela has begun. Overnight, the United States carried out a Helicopter Assault Force (HAF) raid to capture Maduro and his family, which President Trump states was a success. Maduro is currently being flown out of the country, and large-scale airstrikes are being carried out in Caracas. No American casualties have been reported as a result of the operation, and the forces that launched the raid are already out of Venezuelan airspace.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Based on statements made by Maduro's political opposition, he cut a deal. The raid was part of the egress plan to get him out of the country, and he did so willingly. The kinetic nature of the operation was to enable Marudo to escape without his own people killing him, and so far the operation seems to be a success. Whether or not any of this is true is anyone's guess at the moment, but that's the story.
Concerning battle damage in Caracas, substantial strikes have taken place. Once the sun rises a more thorough examination of what happened can take place, but right now it looks like most of the military capability in Caracas has been taken offline, with heavy strikes hitting Fort Tiuna, as well as La Carlota Airbase.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-01-03 01:43:08 CET

//The Wire//2300Z January 2, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PROTESTS EXPAND IN TEHRAN. TERROR ATTACK HALTED IN NORTH CAROLINA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Iran: Overnight demonstrations continued throughout the country, increasing in size and scale. Yesterday evening President Trump weighed in on the protests, directly stating that the United States will intervene militarily if Iranian forces begin shooting protesters en masse.
Analyst Comment: In the Middle East, a "happening" may potentially be on the horizon. So far, the Iranian government has seen worse protests over the years, but the situation is deteriorating rapidly and in classic regional fashion things are getting out of hand in some cities, particularly in locations where a protester gets shot, or some other high-profile event occurs.
From the West, regime change is clearly being encouraged, as it has been for a very long time. Considering Netanyahu's recent visit to DC, and the general diplomatic strategy at play here, it's absolutely certain that both Israel and the US are making another big push for regime change again, so we'll have to see how it works out this time around.
-HomeFront-
North Carolina: This morning the DoJ announced the arrest of one individual who was allegedly planning to carry out a New Year's terror attack. Christian Sturdivant was arrested after conveying attack plans to an undercover agent earlier in December. The suspect pledged allegiance to what he thought was ISIS, and wanted to conduct an Islamic stabbing attack at a local area grocery store.
The suspect originally came "on the radar" of the FBI back in 2022, when he made contact with actual ISIS fighters on social media, who encouraged him to conduct home invasions and kill people with hammers. The FBI made contact with him at that time, however he was 14 years old and no charges were filed as he allegedly underwent psychological treatment.
Last month, after turning 18, Sturdivant returned to social media, making threats of his own, which prompted the FBI to intervene again to attempt to institutionalize him, which failed after a local magistrate judge refused to involuntarily commit him, and the FBI moved forward with their criminal case resulting in his arrest.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Based on the documentation that has been provided on the details of the case, this seems less like a major terrorist takedown, and more like a habitually violent idiot getting rolled up after he posted stupid stuff online.
The suspect's shockingly low IQ can be discerned from the press release, which indicate that the FBI was able to get pretty much every bit of evidence physically possible: He made violent threats online, which were followed up by messages from two undercover FBI agents, which in turn prompted the suspect to confess his entire attack plans in depth, up to and including a voice recording confession.
Nevertheless, this context is not to downplay this individual's actions...idiots can still be very dangerous. He did indeed express his violent desires and took steps to work toward these goals, as he has been working on for several years now. And considering that he was arrested in Mint Hill (a suburb of the infamous city of Charlotte), this will be important to remember in the likely chance that he gets let out of custody (again).
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-01-02 01:26:28 CET

//The Wire//2300Z January 1, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MULTIPLE STATES OF UNREST CONTINUE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. MAJOR FIRE RESULTS IN MASS CASUALTIES AT SWISS NIGHTCLUB. NEW YEAR'S RIOTS STRIKE EUROPE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Switzerland: Last night a significant structure fire was reported at a New Year's celebration event hosted by a nightclub in Crans-Montana. A fire broke out at the Le Constellation nightclub, which consumed most of the facility. Approximately 40x fatalities have been reported due to the fire, along with dozens of others suffering severe burns. Most of these casualties are assessed to have resulted from the challenges in evacuating the structure.
Netherlands: Overnight a major fire was reported at the historic Vondelkerk Church in Amsterdam. The fire completely destroyed most of the church, which was serving mostly as office space due to a decline in the parish population over the years.
Analyst Comment: The cause of the fire has officially not been released, however local authorities have stated that the fire is under investigation, which is itself and indicator that there is something to investigate.
Europe: New Year's festivities resulted in many riots around the continent. Various Moroccan enclaves in Belgium were observed rioting overnight, many of which involved parading around Brussels with weapons in the open, and generally trying to destroy things with fireworks. Actual explosives and incendiary devices were also used throughout the night in Belgium, as a few firebombings took place in Antwerp. France reported around 1,173x vehicles set on fire around the nation, and about 500x arrests were made by riot police throughout the night. Arson attacks were also reported throughout the Netherlands, with migrants attacking Dutch police vehicles with Molotovs.
Middle East: The situation in Iran is deteriorating as protests continue to grow throughout the nation. Protests began in Tehran a few days ago, and have spread to several other major cities around the country.
Analyst Comment: As with any crisis in the region, there is a significant amount of deception and propaganda afoot. However, based on the videos that are making it out of the country, the protests are indeed real. The point of debate is how significant these demonstrations are. The Israeli's have claimed what they always do, that the Ayatollah has fled the country in disgrace, and revolution is underway. The Iranians have likewise done what they always do as well, and not even acknowledged what's happening at all. The truth is probably somewhere between these two extremes, and only time will tell how significant these protests become over the next few weeks.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Right now it looks like the nightclub fire/explosion in Switzerland was probably not a terrorist attack, as the start of the fire was highly documented. A considerable amount of fireworks were noted at this location, many of which were being set off in a risky manner, such as the fireworks which were ignited indoors and held very close to extremely flammable soundproofing tiles. Shortly after the investigation into the fire was launched, Swiss authorities stated that they think it was an accident.
Witnesses that took videos of the aftermath might also shed some light on why there was an exceptionally high casualty count for such a small venue. Videos of the fire (which are too graphic for mixed company) confirm that many people were trapped inside the building, and unable to escape. Only one staircase served as an egress method for the basement, where the fire first began. Additionally, once the fire broke out, many people did not evacuate, either out of ignorance or inebriation. As such, many people only thought about evacuating after the fire was already consuming the entire structure, and it was impossible to use the staircase to escape.
This is an exceptionally disturbing reminder for witnesses of incidents that will occur in the future: Put the phone down, and help. The situation will be highly documented for TikTok later, and when a facility is on fire, it is a good idea to evacuate as soon as possible. Some bystanders did just that. A local media group found a bystander identified as Gianni, a university student from Geneva. Per his testimony, not many people helped rescue others, but due to his Civil Defense training he was able to rally at least 3-4 others to help coordinate rescue efforts before emergency personnel arrived. While this is single-source reporting from one witness, it does make sense in the context of local responders simply being overwhelmed with the scale of this disaster. As such this is another reminder of the importance of being prepared and acting with both speed and deliberation during a disaster.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2026-01-01 01:18:04 CET

//The Wire//2300Z December 31, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: FINLAND SEIZES SHIP AFTER UNDERSEA CABLES CUT IN GULF OF FINLAND. SOMALI FRAUD SCANDAL CONTINUES TO GROW NATIONWIDE AS RESISTANCE EFFORTS BEGIN IN MINNEAPOLIS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Finland: Authorities seized a vessel that was suspected of deliberately dragging anchor over undersea cables in the Gulf of Finland. This morning, anomalies were detected by Elisa, a Finnish telecom provider which operates several undersea cables providing internet connectivity between Finland and Estonia. Shortly after the disturbance was noted, Finnish Naval forces dispatched a helicopter to patrol the area, which resulted in the discovery of the M/V *FITBURG* dragging her anchor while steaming through the area that the cable outage was reported in. Finland immediately boarded and seized the vessel, which remains in Finnish custody as the investigation into the anchor dragging incident continues.
-HomeFront-
Minnesota: Significant resistance has been noted among the Somali community of Minneapolis as the fraud situation becomes more public. A few Somali TikTokers harassing random citizens have been reported, and a general hostile tone has been noted throughout the city. Due to the rise of independent journalists investigating random businesses, Somali enclaves are now calling 911 on any non-Somali they see at their front door, and making the false claim that the person has a gun in order to elicit a police response.
Washington D.C. - In response to the scale of the fraud on display in Minnesota, the federal Department of Health and Human Services has announced a halt of all Administration for Children and Families (ACF) payments made to child care facilities in the state, until each child care facility can prove they actually exist and provide services.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Minneapolis, the saga continues as the Nick Shirley story continues to gain traction. Officially, the State of Minnesota has stated that the "Learing Center" was actually shut down before Shirley's report. However, after this rhetoric was issued, the entire Somali community of the local area came out to make a grand show of the "Learing Center" actually being open. They brought random children to the facility to "prove" that the center was open, and made a big production out of the whole affair. Meanwhile, state-level officials have been on TV over the past few days urging the public that the facility has actually been closed for some time.
Some Somalis, however, do understand the stakes in Minneapolis. Overnight, a break-in was reported at the Nokomis DayCare Center on Bloomington Avenue. The owners of the facility called an urgent press conference to address the situation, which several local media outlets flocked to this morning. The owners stated that the miscreants which conducted the daring heist only stole very specific items...all of the child enrollment records held by the daycare, as well as the checkbook that held all the financial data for the facility.
The official story by the daycare owners is that thieves broke in during the night...to steal paperwork. To even the casual observer, this is very clearly a "dog ate my homework" level of effort to conceal some sort of criminal enterprise.
Additionally, at this same venue, a hole was discovered in the wall under an electrical panel. In the world of tradecraft, this is a classic sign....the remnants of a cash hide site. It is extremely common for cash obtained through illegal means to be stored inside a wall for safekeeping. When it comes time for the criminal to fly to coop, they break the drywall, scoop out the cash, and run for it. While this is completely speculative in this case, it's probably one of the easiest assessments to make as this tactic is widely used throughout the third world (though usually the cash is encased in concrete to protect it from rodents). Even the most basic investigator would come to have a very clear theory about what happened here: A shady business was broken into during the night, all their paperwork was stolen and there's a hole in the drywall, but nothing else taken....this was clearly an operation being rolled up, and whomever was using this one business for illicit purposes is probably long gone.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2025-12-31 01:52:24 CET

//The Wire//2300Z December 30, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SAUDI ARABIA BOMBS EMIRATI WEAPONS SHIPMENT IN YEMEN. RAIL DELAYS SPREAD AROUND EUROPE AFTER INCIDENT IN CHANNEL TUNNEL. CROWBAR ATTACK REPORTED AT BRITISH HOSPITAL.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Yemen: Overnight tensions escalated sharply between several nations as the conflict in Yemen threatens to become more serious. Colonel Turki Al-Malki, the Saudi Air Force Colonel that serves as the spokesman for the Saudi mission to Yemen stated that two vessels departed the UAE without permission this morning, and sailed without turning their AIS transponders on before arriving in Yemen. Onboard these vessels were weapons and armored vehicles that the UAE was allegedly trying to smuggle to the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a faction that threatens the Saudi border.
As a result, Saudi Arabia conducted a few airstrikes within the Yemeni port of Mukalla, targeting the combat vehicles to be used by the STC. After the strikes, Saudi Arabia also called for the UAE to leave Yemen entirely. A few hours after this morning's scuffle, the UAE announced a cessation of their already-reduced mission in Yemen, and are withdrawing all public support for the STC, per Saudi demands.
United Kingdom: This morning an Afghan migrant was arrested for conducting an attack at the Newton-Le-Willows Hospital in Merseyside, a small village halfway between Liverpool and Manchester. The attack began after the man was denied an appointment after entering the lobby with a crowbar in hand. After being told there were no appointments, the man began attacking staff with the crowbar. 5x people were wounded during the attack.
Europe: This morning a "major disruption" was reported in the Channel Tunnel, halting train services between London and Paris. The cause of the disruption was two-fold, resulting from several power lines being downed in one tunnel, and a train stuck in the other tunnel, blocking service both ways under the English Channel.
Analyst Comment: This sounds like it wouldn't be that big of a deal, but due to the importance of this one tunnel (and the nature of rail logistics), passenger train services were halted from Amsterdam to Paris, all during one of the most heavily-trafficked travels season of the year. Delays have been reported all day, and EuroStar has recommended travelers to avoid trains which use cross-Channel routes until repairs are made.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The situation in Yemen has always been a tangled web of factions, and thing's aren't as simple as "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". This latest development is no different, and throughout the day the statements from all parties reflect more of the plot of a soap opera than traditional diplomacy.
The STC is a separatist movement in Yemen that is opposing the Houthi's, but also opposing the Saudis. The Saudis know that if the STC were to win the Civil War in Yemen and actually dominate the Houthis, the STC would probably sidestep the formal Yemeni government and succeed in their goal of creating a new state (what they call South Arabia), which the STC has been working toward for some time. The UAE provides materiel support to the STC for several reasons. For one, the UAE and the Saudis have bad-blood between them on cultural grounds, but both the Emirates and the Saudi royal family also don't want the Houthi's to control most of Yemen, thus the reason for both nations teaming up to form the security coalition in Yemen.
However, the Saudis also don't want the Houthi's adversaries (the STC) to get too much control either...which the UAE *does* want so as to apply pressure to the Saudis because the UAE and Yemen don't share a land border, so they don't care.
In short, the Saudis and Emirates don't actually like each other, but work together to control the dozens of factions at play in Yemen, and this morning, the UAE overstepped their bounds, so the Saudi's bombed their arms shipment.
The Emirates have argued that that technically the armored vehicles that they mailed to the Saudi's enemies are not "arms" so it doesn't count as being an arms shipment. In return, the Saudis have pointed out that there were also conex boxes full of explosives onboard the vessels, and re-stating that any threats to their national security will be dealt with swiftly, et al, etcetera, and so on.
Daytime TV drama aside, squabbling between factions as large as the Saudi royal family and the seven territories that collectively form the "United" part of the United Arab Emirates usually isn't great for stability in the Middle East, especially since major offensives are currently underway throughout Yemen between several different factions. Whether it's directly related to the drama between the Saudis and the Emirates is not entirely clear, but right now there's a whole lot of shooting going on in the city of Mukalla, the same city struck earlier this morning. Though it was probably planned some time ago, various factions (including STC) are trying to capitalize on the squabbling between the big kids on the playground, so as to improve their own tactical positions on the battlefield. Most Middle Eastern nations have picked up on this as well, and the Qataris and Kuwaitis have both issued statements of solidarity regarding the deterioration of the security situation in Yemen over the past 12 hours or so.
All in all, a busy day for the Middle East, and things aren't over just yet.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2025-12-30 01:45:34 CET

//The Wire//2300Z December 29, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PRESIDENT TRUMP QUIETLY CONFIRMS LAND-BASED STRIKES HAVE BEGUN IN VENEZUELA. CHINA LAUNCHES LARGE-SCALE MILITARY EXERCISES NEAR TAIWAN.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Far East: This morning China kicked off their large-scale yearly military exercise in the waters surrounding Taiwan. This year's exercise has been titled "Justice Mission 2025" and focuses on combined arms warfare techniques that will be necessary for the invasion of Taiwan. In the graphics and AI-generated content provided on the exercises by China, the focus for the drills is openly to deter a Taiwanese bid for independence.
Analyst Comment: As usual, all eyes are on the drills this year to assess whether or not China will be capable of taking Taiwan when the time comes. Traditionally, China never announces their military drills ahead of time. In this case, approximately one hour elapsed between the official announcement of the drills, and the first aircraft detected on Taiwanese radar. Somewhat interestingly this year, China has leaned into camouflage as a concept. Ironically, China directly stole the idea of "urban camouflage" from Taiwan, which has taken the form of Chinese units camouflaging ICBM launchers to appear to be construction cranes...a tactic Taiwan has been using for many years. Due to the nature of the expected urban combat of Taipei, Taiwan has had to come up with unique ways for military equipment to survive as long as possible in the event that war kicks off. Turns out, China has also replicated much of this urban camouflage doctrine, which indirectly confirms that China is expecting missiles to be landing within their homeland as well.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: This afternoon, President Trump received Prime Minister Netanyahu at his Mar-a-Lago residence to conduct talks on the Middle East and other various topics. While this visit was quite standard (as these visits have become fairly regular over the past year), several very important items of note took place during the reception.
As Prime Minister Netanyahu was welcomed, a brief press conference was called as is common for dignitary visits. As journalists were present asking questions, the topic of conversation turned to Venezuela. During this off-the-cuff press briefing, President Trump casually stated that the United States had conducted at least one land-based strike within Venezuela. President Trump stated that an "implementation area" (sic) was struck, which he described as being a dock area where boats were being loaded with drugs.
This leaves more questions than answers, and when pressed by journalists about this rather important conflict, President Trump stated that he did not want to comment on the matter any further. As this short 30 second clip is all we have to go on, there's not much that can be discerned at present, however it's almost certain that ground strikes have already quietly started throughout the region.
Throughout this short presser, various other topics came up as well. President Trump reiterated the commitment to continue strikes in Iran, which is not surprising but still notable as it confirms that this conflict is certainly far from over. President Trump also confirmed that he took an unscheduled call from President Putin regarding an event that occurred this morning. In Moscow, the Kremlin reported a Ukrainian drone strike being conducted at an undisclosed location which targeted one of Putin's personal residences. Ukraine has denied this attack outright, and has stated that the whole affair has been fabricated from the ground up.
During this morning's ad hoc press briefing in Florida, President Trump stated that the phone call had taken place, and that the US stopped the sale of Tomahawks to Ukraine for this reason (presumably to prevent them from using these munitions to assassinate Putin). Granted, these minor details probably don't matter that much to the average American taxpayer, but it does shed light on the relationships between all parties during this war, as well as the high-stakes nature of this conflict and very tenuous peace talks.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2025-12-24 23:44:11 CET

//The Wire//2300Z December 24, 2025//
//FESTIVE//
//BLUF: UNIDENTIFIED AIRCRAFT PILOTED BY MAN IN RED SUIT SPOTTED DEPARTING NORTH POLE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
North Pole: Yesterday afternoon Santa's elves were carrying out final preparations for the yearly trip around the world.
This year, a slight delay was noted by the Northern Observatory for Elvish Labor due to some of the flight plan paperwork and airspace clearance permits arriving a bit later than expected. Once the various paperwork was filed, the Supervisory Administrator for Nighttime Transportation Activities confirmed that Santa was able to complete final preparations for delivery this afternoon.
Greenland: Earlier this evening, a US Air Force RADAR site detected an object departing the North Pole. As the object flew over the Norwegian territory of Svalbard, observers saw a bright red light shining from the object, marking it's position in the night sky.
Alaska: Some time later, the United States Air Force Center for Logistical Analysis of Unknown Sky Events scrambled F-16 fighter aircraft to visually confirm the presence of Mr. Claus, however the pilots were unable to keep up with Santa as he was flying much too fast for normal aircraft. At Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, the director of the Joint Organization for Leading Logistics, Yearly stated that he had never before seen anything fly so fast, and that Santa's sleigh must have been upgraded earlier this year.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Santa Claus is indeed coming to town. For those who want to track Santa in real time NORAD has their yearly tracker to help find out where Santa is flying right now, which can be found at www.noradsanta.org.
As a reminder, it is recommended that all children go to bed a bit early tonight, as local zoning regulations mean that Santa cannot deliver presents while everyone is still awake. St. Nicholas' power does work globally, however it is helpful to make his job a little easier when possible as he has a lot of homes to visit!
As such, may everyone have a Merry Christmas, and to all a good night!
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2025-12-24 01:20:08 CET

//The Wire//2300Z December 23, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MEXICAN NAVY AIRCRAFT CRASHES IN GALVESTON, 2X SURVIVORS RESCUED BY GOOD SAMARITANS. INVESTIGATION INTO BROWN UNIVERSITY CONTINUES.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Caribbean: Yesterday the Pentagon announced the shelling of another narco-submarine, which was sunk in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. One individual was reported killed during the strike, though a full Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) has not been provided due to the nature of the submersible craft making it hard to count home many people were really on board.
-HomeFront-
Texas: Last night a Mexican Navy aircraft transporting medical patients crashed in the waters off the coast of Galveston while attempting to land. The flight was carrying medical patients who were to undergo surgery at the Shriner's Children's Hospital in Galveston. So far, of the 8x people onboard the aircraft 5x fatalities have been confirmed, with 2x survivors and one individual remaining missing.
Analyst Comment: The accident appears to be the result of poor visibility at the time of the crash, and the fact that anyone survived at all is a sheer miracle. One woman was rescued from the wreckage by a good Samaritan who responded to the crash site, jumped in the water, and pulled her from the airframe. Other volunteers also helped recover everyone they could from the debris before it sank. The status of the survivors is not clear, however all were in extremely serious condition when they were rescued from the aircraft.
Pennsylvania: This afternoon an explosion was reported at the Silverlake Nursing Home in Bristol. A mass casualty situation was declared as a significant blast destroyed part of the structure.
Analyst Comment: At the time of this report, this is a developing situation and the casualty count is not yet known. The cause of the blast is also not confirmed, however initial assessments suspect this may have been the result of a natural gas leak.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As the investigation into the Brown University shooting has continued, more information has come to light that clarifies some details of the incident. The Chief of the Brown University campus Police Department has been placed on leave as testimony indicates the shooter was observed acting suspiciously within the Barus and Holley building in the weeks leading up to the mass shooting. Derek Lisi, the custodian who works within the engineering building complex, stated that he reported the shooter to security over a dozen times for acting suspiciously. His tips were ignored and no investigation was launched.
Regarding the lack of security camera footage, some useful information has actually arisen from a journalist during a press conference. The press conferences involving Chief Perez, AG Neronha, and others have become regularly disastrous to the point that even journalists are becoming hostile toward how poorly this is being handled. During one press conference, a journalist started asking a question which rapidly became more of a tirade, which accused the officials of something very specific. The journalist stated that the reason for certain cameras not functioning is because they were actually taken down completely at the request of a few dozen different activist groups, who wrote letters to Brown University demanding the school protect illegal immigrant students.
So far this has not been confirmed as it's very unlikely for Brown University to incriminate themselves now (the press conferences have definitely become a "plead the fifth" kind of arrangement at this point). However, if this is true, this would line up with the initial suspicions expressed during the early moments after the shooting. Removing security cameras for social justice reasons has always been a main theory from the very start, and now it's looking like the mainstream media is catching on to this possibility as well.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2025-12-23 02:01:40 CET

//The Wire//2300Z December 22, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: US SEIZES SECOND OIL TANKER IN CARIBBEAN, THIRD TANKER SEIZURE IMMINENT. AUSTRALIA INCREASES SECURITY AT POPULATED GATHERING PLACES.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Netherlands: This evening a vehicle ramming incident was reported in the town of Nunspeet, to the east of Amsterdam. 10x people were wounded during the incident, which involved a vehicle ramming into a crowd during a Christmas parade.
Analyst Comment: At the moment it's not certain as to if this was a deliberate attack, or an accident. The parade itself was taking place in the dark, as it was organized around the viewing of Christmas lights. Since this took place in the Netherlands, it may take some time for more details to come to light.
Caribbean: The Tanker Wars have continued to expand in scope as the US targets multiple tanker vessels throughout the region. On Saturday, the United States seized the M/T *CENTURIES*, a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) flagged out of Panama and registered to a Chinese company.
Sunday afternoon the US Coast Guard was observed to be in pursuit of a third vessel, the M/T *BELLA 1*, a stateless tanker vessel illegally flying the flag of Guyana. This vessel is well-known to smuggle crude to the Iranians in violation of US sanctions.
Australia: Fortification efforts have been observed at Bondi Beach, which have been emplaced for the memorial event that was held in the park over the weekend.
Analyst Comment: Emplacing obstacles at a site that has already been attacked is a strong indicator that the threats are not over yet. Granted, it's cheap to move around blocks of concrete with a forklift, so it makes sense to put them up for the holiday season. However, both of the threats presented to Bondi Beach have been related to small-arms attacks, and not vehicle ramming threats. This indicates that either the threats of further attacks are genuine, or somebody thinks they might be.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the Caribbean, it would seem as though the tanker wars have begun. However, the situation might be a bit more complicated than simply conducting a heist for oil, and the target vessels themselves have pointed to the reasoning for the interdictions. Firstly and most importantly, the pretense of this mission being solely about narcotics trafficking has been dropped; the White House has shifted into also targeting oil vessels without much comment, so at least they're being more honest now.
However, even though it's about the oil, there's a bit more to the story. Though Venezuelan crude is quite high-grade, the US doesn't actually need it as the oil that's been seized is negligible in terms of our own domestic production. As such, it's probably less about the US getting the oil, and more about making sure that China doesn't. The war in the Pacific (which looks increasingly more likely to take place within the next few years) will 100% be a war largely decided by energy: Just like WW2, the Pacific Theater is big and logistics and fuel are the name of the game. Straight-up stealing Venezuela's oil is one way to impact China's logistical supply lines before a war ever begins, and this doctrine is very similar (in many ways) to what transpired between the US and Japan before the war kicked off back in 1941.
This history may seem irrelevant, however the seizure of the M/T *CENTURIES* gives us a clue. The *CENTURIES* itself was not a stateless vessel, nor was it a sanctioned vessel. Everything about the paperwork for the *CENTURIES* was completely legal and above board...it was the oil onboard that was the illegal part that was subject to US sanctions. This is very telling as the US has altered the deal of the blockade, and Venezuela is probably hoping that they don't alter it any further.
Regarding the other vessel that is being sought right now, the *BELLA 1*, her status is less clear. However, doctrinally speaking all nations that have a substantial naval force would agree that the *BELLA* is up to no good and in violation of not just US sanctions, but the standards of maritime decorum generally agreed upon by everybody (stateless vessels with no registration are a big no-no in the maritime community). Some reports state that the USCG attempted to board her at least once, but somehow failed. Right now that's just a rumor which is probably inaccurate. What's more likely is that the USCG hailed her via radio and she refused to stop her engines to allow boarding, and is attempting to make a run for Venezuelan waters. If the US Navy and the US Coast Guard so desire to board a vessel, it shall happen regardless of the opinions of those onboard. So it's likely that the USCG is shadowing her for the time being, until a higher-tier of military unit gets in position to conduct a more kinetic interdiction. Of note, the *BELLA 1* is currently transmitting distress calls over the radio, wanting fellow vessels to save them from being boarded. This is the maritime equivalent of calling the cops on your own drug dealer because the deal went bad, so it's unlikely that anybody is going to help them evade pursuit.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2025-12-21 03:20:14 CET

This week's intel update is out👍https://youtu.be/tr9Mc0orYH4

2025-12-20 02:52:33 CET

//The Wire//2300Z December 19, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: BROWN UNIVERSITY SHOOTER ALLEGEDLY FOUND DEAD AFTER BRIEF MANHUNT. STABBING ATTACK STRIKES TAIWAN. NEW YEARS CELEBRATIONS CANCELED IN MANY NATIONS WORLDWIDE DUE TO TERRORISM CONCERNS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Global: Several nations have canceled or reduced their New Year's celebration events for many major cities. Paris, Hong Kong, Venice, Belgrade, and Tokyo have all canceled fireworks, concerts, and public gatherings due to terrorism concerns.
Taiwan: This afternoon a complex terror attack was captured on video in downtown Taipei. One assailant began the initial phase of the attack by throwing a smoke grenade into the MRT Taipei Main Station (the central subway station in Taipei). During this initial incident, at least one citizen attempted to stop the attacker, however after a scuffle the citizen had either a medical emergency or sustained blunt force trauma (reports vary), and later died at a hospital. A few minutes after the attack began, it became clear that this initial incident was a diversion, and that the main attack was to be conducted at the Zhonshan Station a few blocks to the north. At some point after the first smoke grenade incident, the attacker moved to the second attack site and began stabbing people on the street right outside the Zhonshan Station subway entrance.
The assailant also attempted to ignite a large incendiary device at some point during the attack, which was comprised of a bag full of Molotovs. Concerning casualties, 3x people were killed during the stabbing phase of the attack, and 9x others wounded. Eventually, the attacker took his own life by jumping from a high rise building during a foot pursuit by police, though the details of exactly how this happened remain unknown at the moment. The assailant was later identified as Chang Wen, however no details were provided regarding his motive for the attack.
Australia: All seven of the suspects arrested during yesterdays counterterrorism investigation have been released from detention, even the suspects who were reportedly on terrorism watchlists. Authorities state that there was no reason to hold them, so they let them go.
Analyst Comment: Analytically speaking, it's not usually a good idea to theorize just on gut instinct that a terror attack will take place, however if there ever were to be a time for such it would be right now. The intelligence value of letting known terrorists escape (so as to reveal the location of their buddies) seems like a good idea at first. However, the value of this investigative technique is negligible when the terrorist cell has reached the final stages of attack planning and have moved into the operational phase. By the time a group of terrorists are maneuvering into the objective area to obtain their weapons before an attack, the other cells have usually already cut contact for security reasons. These guys now know that they are being watched, and the element of surprise is gone at the same time they are walking free.
-HomeFront-
Rhode Island: Yesterday evening the Brown University shooter was identified by authorities as Claudio Neves Valente, a Portuguese national who was a former student of Brown University. Authorities state he committed the shooting at the Barus and Holley engineering building, before egressing to Boston. At some point during this trip, he is claimed to have swapped the license plates on his vehicle to evade detection. Once in Boston, he is suspected of murdering MIT professor Loureiro, whom he had worked with in back in Portugal some years ago. Last night Valente was allegedly discovered deceased in a storage unit in Salem, New Hampshire.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Regarding the Brown University shooting, many details still remain to be ironed out. Most of the details are sketchy at best, and authorities are still withholding a lot of information. None of the witnesses who were in the room of the shooting have come forward with information either, an interesting observance that departs from nearly all prior mass shooting cases. Otherwise nobody with two brain cells to rub together believes the Providence Police department or the FBI after fumbling the case this hard. While the FBI was out kicking snow and explicitly telling us that there was no further threat to the public, the killer was quite literally driving a rental car to Boston to murder his former colleague. Or at least, that's the conclusion that can be reached using the official, government-approved version of the story. Considering the lack of trust in that official story, it will be some time before even the very basic details of these cases become supported to the point of being believable.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2025-12-20 02:52:27 CET

//The Wire//2300Z December 18, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ANOTHER POTENTIAL TERROR ATTACK THWARTED AT BONDI BEACH AS SEVERAL DIFFERENT COUNTERTERRORISM OPERATIONS ARE CONDUCTED. VENEZUELA BEGINS ESCORTING VESSELS THROUGH AMERICAN BLOCKADE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Australia: This morning another potential terror attack at Bondi Beach was halted as a vehicle full of Military-Aged Males (MAMs) was intercepted in Liverpool. 5x men of Middle Eastern/West Asian appearance were detained at the intersection of George St. and Campbell St. in Liverpool, just west of Sydney. The vehicle was allegedly heading toward Bondi Beach, and was intercepted by police ramming their vehicle to force them to stop.
Separately, a different situation was reported at a different location, which also involved police ramming into a vehicle to stop the occupants. No further details have been provided on this second ramming incident, where it took place, or if this incident was linked to the first. However, the video of this second incident clearly shows a different location and a different vehicle being involved.
Analyst Comment: Very few details have been provided on this case. All that the media have been told is that intelligence indicated the occupants of the vehicles were on their way to conduct another terror attack at Bondi Beach. Video footage of the first arrest in Liverpool indicated that 5x men were arrested from that initial vehicle. However, a total of 7x people were arrested during this operation, so the other two probably came from the second vehicle. Either way, nothing more than those basic details have been provided, as operations are ongoing and more arrests are likely over the next few days.
Caribbean: Following the implementation of the blockade, Venezuelan naval vessels have reportedly begun to escort commercial ships in and out of Venezuelan ports. So far, the vessels that are alleged to be under escort by Venezuela are not sanctioned (and thus not subject to the blockade anyway) however this practice began yesterday, so the situation remains fluid at the moment.
Analyst Comment: This blockade is really more of a soft form of embargo at the moment. Doctrinally speaking, blockades are a "you cross this line you get sunk" kind of thing, whereas an embargo is more akin to what's going on in the Caribbean. Not every vessel is being restricted from passing, the blockade only applies to sanctioned or stateless vessels. It's not clear as to what will happen once a sanctioned vessel tries to run the blockade, but considering one vessel has been seized already, more are very likely to be boarded soon. If the Venezuelan navy is now going to be involved, this might get rather interesting rather quickly.
-HomeFront-
Rhode Island: The Brown University shooting investigation continues, and authorities have provided a few updates throughout the day. The second individual that was sought yesterday has been identified and interviewed by police, and is not a suspect but did provide some information on the suspected shooter. A homeless man also reportedly provided a vehicle description and license plate number of the shooting suspects vehicle.
Analyst Comment: This afternoon, local media stated that authorities believe there is a link between the Brown University shooting and the murder of an MIT professor in Boston. Right now the sourcing for this information is not known, however an unknown federal policing operation was observed in Boston this evening, which is alleged to be related to the case. Local media also claim that the shooter has been identified, and an arrest warrant has been issued. Shortly after this information hit local media sources, scanner traffic indicated that the New Hampshire State Police had found the suspect's vehicle in Salem. The vehicle is a grey Nissan Sentra, which matches the reported description of both the Brookline shooting, and the Brown University shooting. Per local reports (which are not confirmed in any way yet), the exact same vehicle is sought in both cases. Right now, this is a highly fluid situation, so more corrections are likely to come about by morning.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Last night's Presidential Address turned out to largely be an update on the economic situation. The biggest announcement was the distribution of a bonus check "Warrior Dividend" which will be distributed to Active Duty service members in the amount of $1,776 to commemorate the upcoming 250th anniversary of the nation's founding next year.
Everyone was expecting an official war declaration regarding Venezuela (or some sort of announcement of land-based strikes), however this did not happen and most of the speech revolved around economic issues. President Trump also re-announced the TrumpRX plan for prescription drugs. This part of the speech was not new information, and had already garnered a much-hyped media session a few weeks ago. However this was the same day that one of the pharmaceutical executives passed out in the Oval Office (which rained on the parade a bit), so the White House probably wanted a do-over regarding this announcement and included this part in the speech.
However, Venezuela may have been mentioned indirectly in the speech. The $1776 bonus to service members is certainly very much appreciated by those who receive it, and is definitely welcome after the government shutdown which halted paychecks to government workers during the lapse in funding. However, this might also be received with a bit of suspicion. In the military, no good deed goes unpunished and this might be a steak-and-lobster moment....anything good in the military is often followed by rather unfortunate news. Either way, it's probably nothing, but still a theory worth mentioning.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2025-12-18 02:08:07 CET

//The Wire//2300Z December 17, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS CONTINUE IN CARIBBEAN. BROWN UNIVERSITY SHOOTING INVESTIGATION CASTS DOUBT ON THE PROCESS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Caribbean: Diplomatic indicators continue to mount concerning the war with Venezuela entering into the final stages of preparation. The White House announced that a special address to the nation will take place at 9:00pm (local time), the contents of which have not yet been disclosed.
Analyst Comment: So far it's mostly just rumor, however some historical context might help in understanding the larger strategic doctrine in play here. On this day exactly 118 years ago, the Great White Fleet departed port and officially began it's global journey around the world. The Great White Fleet was an initiative set in place by President Teddy Roosevelt which was intended to showcase America's military might on the high seas. This took the form of sending the US Navy's impressive fleet of battleships (which were painted all white, at the time) around the world as part of a very serious game of show and tell. This move, essentially a manifestation of the "big stick" part of Roosevelt's "walk softly" quote, eventually became known as a class of politics called Gunboat Diplomacy. Today, the US still abides by this doctrine (along with many other nations) to some degree, and in practice it usually works out to take the form of parking an aircraft carrier off a nation's coast to urge a people to strongly reconsider their actions. It's unknown as to if this date holds any significance to the White House, but since President Trump's style of command often takes cues from powerful people throughout history, it would make perfect sense for the White House to replicate this "big stick" effort. This has already come to pass and become routine by the striking of fastboats in the Caribbean, so while the world awaits what happens next, the larger strategic goals would be wise to consider. As a reminder, since the seizure of the M/T *SKIPPER* a few days ago, the United States has changed the official position on Venezuela to not just be about drug trafficking, but also oil as well. This might have been obvious from the very start, but it's still a fast pivot to make for any administration, so as events develop over the next few days we'll have to see how this shakes out.
-HomeFront-
Rhode Island: Images of a second person have been released during the Brown University shooting investigation. Providence Police have not provided the context for why this person is being sought, only that they would like to speak to whomever this individual is.
Analyst Comment: The general theory is that this person is not the shooter, but rather an individual who may have walked past the shooter at some point. Authorities have not confirmed this or really made any comment on this at all, so this is just a best guess regarding this new person that is being sought.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Rhode Island, the development of events following the Brown University shooting has been nothing short of a PR disaster. Normally, it's completely out of the question for any sort of arm-chair quarterbacking to be helpful during a shooting like this. However, in this case, the chance of random anons on the internet finding the killer before the actual police...is higher than zero. As such, more time and resources can be allocated to examine this case, purely in the interest of finding the truth. And right now, it sure looks like a coverup is taking place.
The press conferences in particular have been a source of concern as officials have not been able to answer even basic questions. Chief Perez has been corrected by journalists several times after he mis-stated basic details of the case; for example, yesterday he stated the the footage of the suspect that was released was from inside the Barus and Holley building, when in reality all of the footage has been from exterior cameras. This is important because a major sticking point in this case is the complete lack of interior security camera footage.
In response to the sheer disbelief in the lack of security camera footage of a mass shooting, Brown University released their entire security camera layout plan. From a security perspective, this is highly secret information. Now, criminals know exactly where the gaps in camera coverage are and crimes can now be committed at certain points because of this knowledge. However, this chart is also not complete, and there are at least two cameras that can be seen in Google Street View, which are not depicted on the camera plan. Both of these cameras appear to be directed at the rear of the Prince Engineering Lab, and the rear of the Barus and Holley building....EXACTLY where the suspect is assessed to have exited the building from. This means that the two cameras which may have footage of the killer...don't officially exist.
This of course does not prove that the suspect was actually captured on these cameras, as the distance from the Engineering building was probably too far to actually matter that much even if the suspect was seen in this footage. But it does prove that someone at some point is lying about the cameras that actually exist in this general area. This calls into question other details provided by the University, such as the route that the suspect is alleged to have taken to egress from the area.
Another detail in the case that adds to the incredulity is the fact that the room in which the shooting took place was locked, and could only be accessed by keycard, at least according to eyewitnesses who had class in that building. This has been stated by multiple students and faculty; no one can enter the exterior doors of the building without swiping their ID badge. The exception to this access is during times of heightened foot traffic, such as exam week, so this detail doesn't help much...it's likely that the doors would have been unlocked anyway. As such, this detail might not mean much, but it's still a question that needs to be answered.
All things considered, many eyes are on this topic now. Everyone from members of the student body at Brown, to anons on the internet are examining details and trying to both piece together exactly what happened and also trying to apprehend the suspect(s). For their efforts to get to the truth, members of the public have been berated and insulted by AG Neronha who became visibly upset during a press conference, regarding a question of why Brown University has quietly taken down pages from their website that featured personnel that might be suspects. This afternoon Congressman Sheldon Whitehouse called anyone who questioned the official story of what happened "stupid" and told them to "shut up", urging the censorship of any non-governmental-approved efforts to get to the truth in this case.
Officials have stated that there is no threat to the community, which is not reflected in the basic fact that the killer is still on the loose, and no indication warned of the attack in the first place. The only basis for claiming that there is no further threat to the public, is a scenario in which the intended target is dead, so there's no risk of another mass shooting taking place. Since the shooting, no terror cell or organization has claimed credit for the attack either. As such, the threats continue, and time is running out when it comes to finding the killer.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2025-12-17 02:55:44 CET

//The Wire//2300Z December 16, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: STABBING ATTACK STRIKES MOSCOW SCHOOL. TURKEY DOWNS UNIDENTIFIED DRONE OVER BLACK SEA. AMERICAN FORCES CONTINUE STAGING IN THE CARIBBEAN. WHITE HOUSE EXPANDS IMMIGRATION VISA RESTRICTIONS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Russia: This morning a mass stabbing was reported at the Gorki-2 school just outside Moscow. The suspect has been identified as a 15-year-old by the name of Timofey K. (full last name unknown). One student was killed during the attack, and many others wounded.
Turkey: Yesterday Turkish defense forces shot down an unidentified drone that was on a course to violate their airspace. F-16's were scrambled to intercept the drone over the Black Sea, and the decision was made to down the drone before it entered Turkish airspace, so that the debris would land in the Sea and not injure anyone on the ground.
Analyst Comment: Turkey has not commented on which nation the drone was from, however the most likely culprit is probably Russia, as reports of rogue drones flying off course have been common lately. It's certainly possible it was an errant Ukrainian drone, however Russia is really the one who is famous for industrializing the use of long range drones during the war.
Caribbean: Strikes have continued as American force posturing remains elevated throughout the region. Observers have noted the presence of 10x KC-135 tanker aircraft forward deployed to the Dominican Republic, adding to the growing list of forces being staged in the region.
Analyst Comment: This afternoon President Trump announced on social media the formal implementation of a total blockade of sanctioned oil tankers within Venezuelan waters. This is a major escalation that will very likely result in the situation becoming more tense over the next few days.
-HomeFront-
Massachusetts: This afternoon a suspicious death was reported at the home of a high-ranking MIT professor. Nuno Loureiro, the director of the Plasma Science and Fusion Center at MIT was found dead in his home in Brookline. He was found deceased, with several gunshot wounds being the preliminary cause of death.
Analyst Comment: Due to the Brown University shooting, it's likely that increased scrutiny will be placed on crimes that occur at universities or within the sphere of higher education in general. So far, not enough information is known on this murder case to discern what happened here. This could be a more routine murder, or it could be something else entirely, there's no way to know at the moment.
Washington D.C. - This afternoon the White House announced a revision to the previously-implemented travel restrictions from High-Risk nations. The update now includes a total travel ban on Palestinians entering the US, along with adding partial restrictions to most of the continent of Africa. Laos and Sierra Leone have also moved up from partial restrictions to full restrictions.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Mass stabbing attacks are rare in Russia, and this one was very disturbing even by western standards. The attacker recorded the attack by mounting his phone to his helmet, and took selfies with the victims after he stabbed them. Regarding motive for the attack, so far this looks like a classic 764/O9A situation. Going by the textbook, the US might classify this individual under the new category of terrorist, the "NVE" or Nihilistic Violent Extremist. This is a comparatively new class of terrorist which often displays strange and contradictory ideology.
In this case, the main clue that this was a 764/O9A-style attack is the firearm that was recovered from the suspect's home after the attack. Phrases written in white paint pen on an all-black weapon are the calling card of both the 764 Network and the Order of Nine Angles. Both of these groups are infamous for taking pride in encouraging children to carry out attacks like this, and the hallmarks between these attack styles are incredibly uncanny. Also of note, this attack was preventable as the assailant sent his manifesto to fellow students before he conducted the stabbing attack.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2025-12-16 04:27:39 CET

//The Wire//2300Z December 15, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MORE DETAILS COME TO LIGHT REGARDING WEEKEND TERROR ATTACKS. MORE QUESTIONS REMAIN UNANSWERED FOLLOWING BROWN UNIVERSITY SHOOTING.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Australia: More details have come to light regarding the terror attack at Bondi Beach yesterday. What was originally observed to be a total of three attackers has been corrected by police who state that there were only two shooters, a father and son, who conducted the shooting. The shooters have been identified as Naveed Akram, and Sajid Akram.
-HomeFront-
California: This morning the Department of Justice announced the arrest of four members of the Turtle Island Liberation Front organization, a group affiliated with ANTIFA and various other far-left political causes. The arrests were made after the four planned to carry out attacks at ICE facilities in New York.
Analyst Comment: The members of this group posted exceptionally clear threats and calls to violence on social media using their real names. They also organized their terrorism plans openly on social media, without any sort of concern for being caught. Of note, the name Turtle Island Liberation Front refers to a much larger conglomeration of groups, it's not just these four people. These four in particular called themselves the Order of the Black Lotus.
Somewhat interestingly, the FBI actually released drone footage of the group engaging in a range day event, in which the suspects constructed and tested explosive devices that they planned to use during their attacks. This footage shows a total of at least 6x people...not four. So per the FBI's own intelligence product, either these extra people were not arrested, or (more likely) were FBI agents planted in the group. The footage that was released also doesn't show any crime being committed, so it's not entirely clear why this footage was put together for public release.
Rhode Island: The Brown University shooter remains at large as the victims of the shooting have been identified. One victim was identified by her church as Ella Cook, the Vice President of Brown University's Republican Club. The other fatal victim has been identified as Mukhammad Aziz Umurzokov, an Uzbek national. The shooter has also not been identified, however investigators have been observed walking around the shooting site as part of the ongoing investigation.
This afternoon Providence Police released an extremely low-resolution video clip of the suspect, though no further description was provided. After this initial clip was released, private citizens came forward with private doorbell camera footage, which so far is the highest resolution imagery that has been made available.
Crime scene investigation and evidence preservation techniques have also been a challenge. After the long-distance footage of the suspect was released, local journalists geolocated the location where the video was taken and visited the site to discover that the FBI has not fully processed the crime scene. Journalists were able to enter and contaminate the crime scene, and also take photos of the evidence that was in the process of being collected by FBI field agents.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As always, it is often a good idea to wait for solid information to come out regarding a crisis, rather than just speculating on details that are uncertain. However, when a fugitive is on the lamb, more analytical leeway can be granted if it helps catch the shooter, such as the case in Providence.
Regarding the Brown University shooting, so far many of the details of the incident do not add up. The shooter's identity remains unknown, and many other details are extremely conflicting at best, to the point that even journalists are becoming frustrated with the press conferences on the situation offering up very little information. The "person of interest" that was detained by police in the hours after the shooting has been released, even though the Providence Police Chief confirmed that they were confident that this individual was the shooter. This was, however, a rather loose use of the word "confirmed", because as the investigation progressed this individual was assessed to not be the shooter. As of this report the shooter has officially not been identified by Law Enforcement authorities, and the status of the investigation is unclear.
Concerning the very poor video footage that has been released of the suspect, it's not clear why the FBI or Providence Police have not released better imagery from the university itself. Brown University is well known for their surveillance operation on campus. In fact, a student-led initiative to log these cameras back in 2021 revealed that Brown University has over 800 security cameras on campus. Even more pertinently, the exact building where the shooting took place (the Barus and Holley Engineering Building) has security cameras on quite literally every single corner of the building, and covering every single entry/exit. This afternoon Providence Police Chief Oscar Perez stated that they have released all that they have, indicating that none of the cameras inside, outside, or surrounding the Engineering building captured the shooter.
As this is a major sticking point in this case, one detail must be considered which might explain the situation. A few months ago, many initiatives came about to protect students nationwide from ICE raids. Brown University has dedicated major resources to protecting illegal immigrant students from ICE raids, and has published vast quantities of resources helping illegals evade prosecution under immigration law. During the height of these efforts a few months ago, the idea was floated to destroy evidence of illegal activities at various campuses around the US. How far and wide these efforts have become is unknown, it may be just a meme, or it may be something serious. But since time is of the essence, the possibility must be considered that these cameras weren't actually recording anything, just in case ICE wanted to tap into the footage for the deportation of students. Under normal circumstances this sounds like a harebrained theory, however since this situation is not over yet (the shooter is still on the loose), the public needs to know why only Bigfoot-grade footage has been released regarding this suspect, and how the 800+ cameras on campus somehow did not record a mass shooting. Shutting off security cameras to somehow "protect" immigrant students sounds right up the alley of a staffer at Brown University, so we have to consider this possibility.
As a reminder, the Providence Police Chief himself is an immigrant from Colombia, and even conducted parts of today's press briefing on the shooting completely in Spanish. Chief Perez has also become legendary for openly stating that his police forces will not work with federal agencies or share information with ICE. Back in July, Chief Perez was the point of focus for an ICE raid that occurred in his jurisdiction. He held a press conference to reassure the public that his officers were not helping ICE during the raid.
Considering this historical context, it would not be out of the question to surmise that Chief Perez might be personally withholding evidence on this case from federal authorities, because he has already openly confessed to doing so in the past.
Regarding the motive for the attack, nothing is official until the suspect is caught. And in the absence of information being released, speculation can run as wild as one wants: Exam times are often times of heightened stress (and sometimes violence), the winter holiday season is sometimes prone to exacerbate pre-existing mental illnesses, and the world is a dangerous place in general these days, with shootings taking place daily for any variety of reasons. However, in the absence of information, it is always a good idea to make decisions based on the Most-Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA) that is feasible, and then walk assessments back to more reasonable ground once more information comes out. Right now, considering the victims, it would be prudent to assess that this attack was the worst-case scenario of some kind of political targeting, as this theory will have wider-ranging impacts nation wide. Once more information becomes known, this analysis can be updated with more current information, but right now concerns are mounting that this is not a standard mass shooting.
One of the major details that have not been clarified is exactly where the shooting took place inside the Engineering building, and what the classroom was being used for at the exact moment of the shooting. Initial reports indicated that the shooting took place in a classroom, during a final exam. However, when pressed on this by journalists, University personnel have not been able to confirm what was going on inside the classroom at the time of the shooting, and some details point to the shooting taking place at a student-run club meeting instead of an exam, however this remains unclear at the moment.
That's the interesting part about speculation; in the absence of information, we the people have to do the best we can with what we *do* have. And right now, confidence is not particularly high that the shooter will be caught as the fact that a BOLO notice has been posted is proof that the FBI have very few leads to investigate and need the public's help to catch this guy. This is not doing a whole lot to reassure the public either, since it's well known that if a suspect can evade detection for 48 hours, they're probably long gone (before they resurface due to a mistake week/months from now). In any case, the failure to catch a mass shooter within the first couple of days provided critical information to future mass shooters...this case demonstrates how easy it is to get away with this type of crime in what was previously thought to be a heavily surveilled area. This will certainly be a very strong motivator for those who seek to continue violent attacks.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2025-12-14 16:08:30 CET

//The Wire//1500Z December 14, 2025//
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: TERROR ATTACK STRIKES AUSTRALIA AS 12X KILLED IN BONDI BEACH MASS SHOOTING. VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK FOILED IN GERMANY. MASS SHOOTING REPORTED AT BROWN UNIVERSITY IN PROVIDENCE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Australia: A few hours ago, a complex terror attack took place at a Hanukkah event in Bondi Beach. Multiple gunmen approached a gathering of people at a picnic area on the east side of the park, and began engaging those taking part in holiday celebrations. At least two gunmen took up a tactical position on the pedestrian bridge at grid coordinate: 56H LH 40786 48784 // 61.2 ft MSL. From there, the gunmen began firing at event participants in the park below. After a few minutes, these two shooters were eventually neutralized by armed police on this bridge.
At least one other gunman was present at the shooting, but was disarmed by a bystander who attacked the shooter with his bare hands and took the weapon from him. This disarmed-shooter was later detained by police on the pedestrian bridge with the others.
Analyst Comment: Concerning casualties, right now the number stands at 10x killed during the attack, with a few dozen wounded. At least two of the attackers were wounded/killed by armed police, however their status is not known. The total number of shooters involved in this attack is also not known, but right now the count stands at 3x shooters taking part in the attack. At least one shooter did survive, as indicated by the videos of the incident taken by observers. Regarding the identities of the attackers, official confirmation of their name and status will take some time. However, photos of some of the shooter's drivers licenses have circulated social media in the hours after the attack. At least one of the attackers appears to be Naveed Akram, who had a NSW driver license.
Germany: Yesterday a vehicle ramming attack was foiled by police, which involved a local terror cell in lower Bavaria. Local authorities state that 5x suspects have been arrested after they planned to carry out a vehicle ramming attack at a Christmas Market in the Dingolfing-Landau area.
Analyst Comment: The suspects have not been identified by name, however their nationalities are: 1x Egyptian, 3x Moroccans, and 1x Syrian. All are currently being held in pre-trial detention, and more documents are expected to be released regarding how this plot was alleged to have been planned.
-HomeFront-
Rhode Island: Yesterday evening a mass shooting was reported at Brown University after a shooter opened fire during final exams near the Barus and Holley Engineering building on campus. 2x people were killed and 9x were wounded during the attack.
Analyst Comment: The assailant egressed from the area after the shooting, which triggered a manhunt for several hours and prevented the scene from being secured for medical personnel to provide aid to the wounded. As of this morning, police state that they have one "person of interest" in custody regarding the case, however they stopped short of calling this person a suspect. Officially, the shooter has not been captured yet. No weapon was recovered from the scene, and the assailant was wearing a mask during the attack.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Germany, it must be noted that if this terror cell was rolled up by police, there are probably others which have not yet been detected. Five terrorists is NOT a lone-wolf-style attack, and heavily indicates a more hierarchical organization structure. Depending on how well this cell was organized and commanded, this could mean that other terrorists that haven't been detected yet might be motivated to accelerate their attack planning. Considering the success of the horrific attack in Australia, it's possible that other attacks are coming down the pipeline. As such, increased situational awareness and vigilance is strongly recommended as terrorism risks remain high this holiday season.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2025-12-14 01:47:06 CET

This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/EafNAmgEhEw

2025-12-12 02:50:08 CET

//The Wire//2300Z December 11, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: AUSTRALIAN AGE VERIFICATION LAW COMES INTO EFFECT. ARRESTS MADE IN LAST WEEK'S STABBING ATTACK IN CHARLOTTE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Australia: Yesterday Australia's Age Verification law came into effect for most websites, effectively blocking the vast majority of social media to the entire nation, unless users upload a scan of their face to prove that they are over 16 years old, and thus allowed to be on social media.
Caribbean: The tanker vessel seized by the United States yesterday has been identified as the M/T *SKIPPER*, one of the infamous "shadow fleet" vessels which is used to smuggle oil around the world. The *SKIPPER* was her most recent name change, and at the time of capture she was flying the flag of Guyana (though her registration status is dubious at best). As of this afternoon, AIS ship tracking platforms noted her position being just off the east coast of St. Lucia, heading north at around 10 kts.
-HomeFront-
North Carolina: More details have come to light regarding the stabbing attack that took place on the Blue Line commuter train in Charlotte last week. Back on December 5th, a stabbing was reported on the train, with the assailant eventually being arrested. At the time of the incident, the attacker was not identified, but after a few days authorities said the attacker was Oscar Gerardo Solorzano-Garcia, an illegal immigrant from Honduras who had multiple warrants out for past violent crimes, to include aggravated battery with a deadly weapon.
Analyst Comment: From here, the situation takes a rather unfortunate turn. Solorzano stabbed a man on the train, who was hospitalized with severe wounds. Earlier this week, the victim was identified as Kenyon Dobie, and was lauded as a hero during the attack because of his efforts to confront the attacker to stop him from harassing other commuters. Dobie did intervene, and prevented the attacker from bothering other passengers, which resulted in him getting stabbed in the process. However, after this news story hit the local media, and the victim made statements in front of the camera, Dobie (the victim) was arrested. Turns out, he had open warrants for his own arrest for beating a pregnant woman so severely she received skull fractures during a domestic dispute. Both Solorzano and Dobie are being held in jail due to Iryna's Law preventing their release.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comment: Unlike many other cases of Digital ID being mandated around the world, Australia has implemented even more dystopian procedures to take effect during this rollout. Of note, the social media platforms which are known to cause extreme harm to children (such as Discord and Roblox) are exempt from the social media ban. However, the platforms that are affected, are impacted in very specific ways.
As one might expect, VPNs are popular ways to circumvent such crackdowns on speech. However, the IP addresses associated with VPNs are public record, so social media companies can easily blacklist those IPs, effectively making VPNs useless for evading the ban. At least some platforms have been observed using these blacklists (but not all). For those in the United Kingdom wondering about how their own Digital ID scandal will play out, this might be a clue; Australia is providing a case study for what a more totalitarian crackdown on communications throughout the global West might look like.
How serious platforms are taking this plan is anyone's guess, and reports vary widely. Some users report no issues whatsoever with being prompted to verify their age, whereas others have reported every app they have now requiring a face scan. Some users report that they can simply put in a false date of birth with no verification at all, and others report their accounts being hard-locked even though the mandate doesn't apply to them.
This wide variance is because most of the ID verification needs are being driven by AI in conjunction with a person's advertising ID; the way that this is rolling out in practice is that the ID verification requirement is being tailored for each individual human being and not simply a blanket policy for all platforms. In short, the AI models being relied upon already know if a person is over 16 years old, simply based on their online signature, and the digital fingerprints they leave behind. This is why some people don't notice the law taking affect at all, whereas others are hit pretty hard with the ID check requirements.
But, the system isn't perfect, and many times users are prompted to give over extremely precious biometric data anyway. Many users have reported successfully bypassing the 3D face scans by using a classic trick...video games. Many popular video games have a character creation menu which people can hold their phone up to in order to pass the 3D head scan requirements which have become common now. Users have reported even more effectiveness by using the video game Death Stranding, which features a mode in the settings menu to make the character assume different facial expressions, opening and closing the mouth, and various other poses which are still effective in bypassing the AI-driven face scanning technology. In short, it's probably fair to assume that there are potentially tens of thousands of Norman Reedus's living in Australia and trying to access TikTok. This trick was discovered by children during the lead up to the implementation of Digital ID in the United Kingdom, and it still works for those who are trying to bypass the ID check systems.
There is also a side-benefit to this effort, even for people who are legally accessing the internet and not trying to bypass the law. A major motivating factor for all of this crackdown on communication is the financial aspect....there's a LOT of money to be made from selling biometric data. Since there's now a massive pool of biometric data being collected and sold to the highest bidder, it's very likely that AI models are being trained off of this data....data which will 100% be used in other ways later on that have nothing to do with accessing Instagram. A high-resolution 3D scan of a person's face is very valuable, and once it's collected *and associated with a person's online identity* this is quite literally impossible to dissociate. Once Palantir has that data, that genie can't be put back into the bottle. As such, everyone using the same face is very likely to skew this data and make it harder for many other AI models to recognize faces in the future, so this little civil disobedience at least helps somewhat. This is very important information for the future of digital security, and the rollout of even more draconian Digital ID practices around the world.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2025-12-09 02:09:25 CET

//The Wire//2300Z December 8, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR REIGNITES IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AS BORDER CLASHES FLARE UP BETWEEN THAILAND AND CAMBODIA. MILITARY COUP ATTEMPTED IN BENIN.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Southeast Asia: Over the weekend hostilities recommenced between Thailand and Cambodia. What started the latest round of fighting is not clear, however Thailand has crossed into the disputed zone and occupied the village of Pairachan (also known locally as "Prey Chan" village). The US State Department has upgraded the travel alert for the region, due to the ongoing fighting along the border.
Analyst Comment: As usual, both sides have accused the other of reigniting hostilities, and right now it's not clear who actually started what. Nevertheless, Thailand has been bombing Cambodia fairly regularly, and Cambodia has been launching unguided rockets at Thailand in return (even though Cambodia states that they have not retaliated). Sporadic fighting has been reported all along the front throughout the day, with most of the heavy shelling being confined to the border itself. No official word on any casualties yet, but Thai sources claim one of their soldiers was killed, while Cambodian sources claim 4 soldiers killed/wounded on their side.
Africa: A brief military coup was attempted in the small nation of Benin over the weekend, which took the form of a low level military commander seizing a TV station and announcing that he had taken control of the government. Lieutenant Colonel Pascal Tigri announced the overthrowing of the government and the deposition of the President on television. Turns out, none of that had actually happened, and the TV station was the only location that rebel forces had actually captured. LTC Tigri and his platoon of soldiers were captured shortly afterwards.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - This afternoon the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that they will not be publishing the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the month of October, and the PPI report for November will be delayed until January.
Analyst Comment: This follows the previous jobs report, the CPI report, and various other reports also not being available for October, reports which usually provide major indicators of how the economic is functioning. The PPI specifically is intended to track the changes in the prices of goods at the producer-level, and is normally used in comparison with the CPI (and other reports) to gauge how major manufacturers and big industry in general is doing. Inferences can be made without this specific dataset, however when a major report is not available this causes problems with data analysis. With the economy, "no news" is usually covering up "bad news", as a rule of thumb. Either way, it's not possible to know what the story is without the data.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comment: For the aspiring warlords of the world, in order for a military coup to be successful, it's generally advised to actually seize control of government before making the announcement of such. Some units loyal to LTC Tigri were successful in closing a few border checkpoints, however no actual key sites were seized by the rebels before making the announcement on TV. Most interestingly, the neighboring nation of Nigeria assisted in providing air support for the government of Benin to help put down the coup attempt. This is part of a long-standing security pact, and mostly took the form of Nigerian aircraft flying over important sites in Benin (such as military bases, checkpoints, etc) to see if anyone on the ground would shoot at them (and thus reveal their allegiance to the rebels). Or at least, that seems to be the theory used during the response. In some cases, Nigerian aircraft were fired upon with small arms, and at least one report exists that alleges Nigerian aircraft dropping a bomb in Benin. Locals in Benin have taken to social media to claim that Nigeria is currently invading Benin, while Benin's government is trying to suppress a coup. This wouldn't be the first time an African nation pounced on their neighbor during a time of weakness, but right now it looks like Nigeria is not actually invading Benin, at least not yet.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2025-12-07 00:22:22 CET

This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/pcRz_t5wku8

2025-12-05 02:32:22 CET

//The Wire//2300Z December 4, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ENOCH BURKE INDEFINITELY JAILED IN IRELAND. J6 PIPE BOMBER ALLEGEDLY IDENTIFIED.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Ireland: Yesterday Enoch Burke was sentenced to an indefinite prison term as the culmination of a long-standing scandal comes to a head. Burke was initially arrested for refusing to use a transgender person's pronouns during his job as a teacher back in 2022. Burke did not bow to this agenda, and desired to continue his job of being a medical teacher as he had done for many years. This snowballed into a gargantuan legal battle over the past few years, which has culminated in his termination from employment. He has been imprisoned several times since this scandal first began years ago.
The court cleared him of speech crimes some time ago, but the school was able to find a judge who would help them ban him from the school grounds, but more specifically hold him indefinitely as long as he resisted their efforts to make him cave to their demands, namely that he use the pronouns. Burke has continually tried to return to his job and physically enter the school to continue teaching (attempts which have been regular over the past few years), but this has now been shut down due to him being arrested and held in jail indefinitely.
Analyst Comment: This situation is obviously a longer saga that has been developing for some time. Burke, desiring to continue his work and return to the time before one student tried to ruin his life, has dug his heels in and turned activist, using his situation as an example of the sheer mental illness that has become enshrined in all facets of society. At this point, the two issues are now merged (the trespassing and the pronoun use). Burke is being indirectly targeted in this way because of his views on the transgender agenda, and the only way they could bag him was to get him for trespassing while he tries to continue his profession that was stable before the insanity began.
Now, it seems that the proverbial final hill has been arrived at (maybe). Burke will be held in prison indefinitely as long as he refuses to cave to the trans agenda, and whatever fantastical charges they can come up with will be applied if he doesn't do so. Right now, he's effectively been sentenced to life in prison for contempt of court as this Irish-standoff situation will continue for as long as he holds out. All of the pro-trans mainstream media are quick to "Fact Check" this situation, even though the persecution is clear as day. If Burke were to cave to the insanity, the trespassing charges would be dropped, and he would immediately be re-employed without question, even if nothing more than to serve as a reminder that the insane ideologies of the day will break anyone. So far, however, Burke has not broken and he will be in prison for what is likely to be a very, very long time because of it (unless the situation changes due to national outrage, which has been building).
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - This afternoon, the infamous J6 pipe bomber was allegedly identified as Brian Cole Jr. of northern Virginia. A raid was conducted at Cole's home, which resulted in his arrest.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comment: This case is probably one of the most sketchy situations to come to light regarding the entire J6 fiasco, and this is a massive can of worms that has been debated endlessly over the past few years. As a bit of backstory, for the longest time, the general theory was that the J6 pipe bomber was a government agent of some kind, as evidenced by the wealth of Congressional testimony involved in the years after the incident. There were a lot of suspect things that day, but the pipe bomber story smelled like the classic clandestine shenanigans that occur within the Beltway, so that was the assumption for the longest time. Last month, The Blaze published a report which reportedly relied upon gait-analysis techniques to identify the way the alleged bomber walked. This analysis produced a name, who they claimed was a DC police officer at the time, who transitioned to being employed by the CIA. At the time, this report seemed far-fetched, mostly because the gait-analysis (which is a real analytic technique) relied upon too many variables for any sort of conclusion to be arrived at beyond reasonable doubt.
At the time, this line of analysis was interesting, but mostly a shortfall as the field of criminal justice requires a lot more than experimental analysis to be definitive. Gait Analysis is a real thing in the world of intelligence analysis and good for indicators and other very specific investigative needs, but Positive ID is hard to do. As such, this initial report was mostly ignored by anyone serious; journalists are not professional investigators, nor do they often rely upon Structured Analytic Techniques to form an analysis. Plus, the integrity of journalists (particularly The Blaze in general) is called into question due to long-standing issues; journalists have many different motives to conduct such efforts. However, the timing of today's arrest is incredibly suspect and without question points to something going on here. The Blaze may or may not have been wrong in their initial assessment of who the bomber was...but they certainly kicked the hornet's nest enough that federal agencies felt the need to actually produce a name and tie up this case in a neat little bow. Adding to this is the sheer unbelievable nature of the evidence presented against Cole in the unsealed indictment...the FBI quite literally had his license plate number recovered at the scene, his cell phone data pinged him at the location, in real time, as he walked through DC, and his credit card history neatly listed all of the components of the IEDs which he purchased from various hardware stores.
And apparently...it took the FBI conducting a nationwide manhunt over a period of *five years* to identify him.
Quite literally all of this is wild speculation at best, but right now anyone remotely familiar with how Washington works is fairly certain that something is afoot with this case. For five years, not one single shred of investigation was conducted to identify the bomber, and yet just a few short days after a news groups gets close to the truth, suddenly an entire investigation is conducted start-to-finish. Grandmas walking their dog at the wrong time on that day were arrested and interrogated instantly, but this guy presented an entire binder full of evidence and somehow it took years to identify him. Everyone would have safely ignored The Blaze's outlandish theory if the FBI had done nothing, but now the timing of all of this points to this whole affair being incredibly suspicious.
It's always possible that The Blaze is correct, however at this point what's vastly more likely is that the feds don't want anyone poking around any more, so they offered up a name to stop people from looking. As to the reasoning for why federal agencies want to put this issue to bed right now, it's impossible to know based on the information that we have been given. Maybe people were getting too close to the truth, maybe the people who organized the plot still work for various intelligence agencies, maybe many other different clandestine operations are going on to this day, which prying eyes might disrupt. It's impossible to know. Brian Cole Jr. may or may not be the suspect in one of the most suspicious days in American history. But what's quite clear is that the FBI is very much interested in making the American people *think* it's him.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

2025-12-03 01:27:09 CET

//The Wire//2300Z December 2, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UNITED KINGDOM OFFICIALLY LAUNCHES PLAN TO END TRIAL BY JURY IN MOST CASES. PRESIDENT TRUMP STATES THAT KINETIC AIRSTRIKES MAY BEGIN SOON IN VENEZUELA OR OTHER NATIONS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
United Kingdom: This morning Justice Secretary David Lammy announced the previously mentioned plan involving the removal of the right to trial by jury, reversing 800 years of legal precedent throughout the nation. A new category of "Swift Courts" will be created, allowing for rapid verdicts to be issued for crimes where a guilty verdict would result in a sentence of less than three years imprisonment.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - President Trump stated that airstrikes within Venezuela might begin soon, and might not be contained to Venezuela itself. Per statements made by President Trump himself, the US will target narcotics traffickers in any nation that conducts such activities.
Analyst Comment: The comments made during today's press conference were vague, which is to be expected due to the secrecy needed to ensure the success of the impending military operation. Nevertheless, this is probably as clear of an indication and warning as we're going to get regarding the shifting of the operation to including ground-based airstrikes. Probably the biggest revelation is that the comments made today confirm what has obviously been building for some time; the US is not necessarily interested in just Venezuela.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Around the United States winter weather conditions have arrived as significant snowfall was reported throughout the northeastern and mid-atlantic regions. Multiple traffic pileups were reported from Missouri to Connecticut, and a snowfall record was reported in Louisville overnight. States of Emergency have been reported in several states, which were not prepared for roughly a foot of snow.
Every year the first wave of winter weather highlights gaps in personal preparedness in the form of calamity on the highways. As winter gets underway this year it would be wise to remember budgetary cutbacks which have reduced capabilities this season in many jurisdictions. For example, the village of Vernon, Wisconsin (a small municipality outside Milwaukee), approved a 47% budget reduction for the Public Works department earlier this year, so staffing delays and long wait times for road plowing have been reported. This is an important planning factor for many locations this year, as dwindling resources remain common in many small towns.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//