Bitcoin OG since 2010, former laptop solo miner - which makes me (amongst) the first obsolete Bitcoin miner(s), blockstream satellite node runner, #2A rights user, radiologist
Public Key
npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd Profile Code
nprofile1qqsy7nuzs3nf3lmx4e06n7k5crzwk7pr47c8l204f65azhcjz7hfdnqprpmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuumwdae8gtnnda3kjctvqy28wumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnyv9kh2uewd9hszrthwden5te0dehhxtnvdakqkmsr54
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Published at
2026-03-04T02:37:33Z Event JSON
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"kind": 0 ,
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Last Notes npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo If you had a bunch of Bitcoin price data, and you wanted to extrapolate in to the future for retirement or DCA estimating, and that data fit a power law, the natural thing to do would be to create a Markov model with transition probabilities derived from quantile power law fits to price data and then take several hundred weighted random walks to get a feel for where one ends up after say 10 years… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo lol, and you think your opinion matters when you can’t even understand the topic? npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Totally agree. Which is why bip110 is a non-starter. You can’t deny people the right to spend their bitcoin. Imagine if your life savings was trapped because you were a cutting edge bitcoin user… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo You misunderstand. Bip110 disables advanced bitcoin key security techniques because they aren’t common and spammers can use similar constructs…but throwing the baby out with the bath water is unwise and denying users the ability to move economically relevant amounts of funds is also unwise npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I think it would be safer and less contentious to partition space 90/10 instead of 100/0 with collateral damage npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Only morons think they can identify arbitrary data with accuracy. Look at the nonstarter bip110…freezing legit users funds because they can’t figure out a way to decide spam from not spam… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo If you sent bitcoin to your own miniscript to do advanced security, bip 110 declares your coins to be spam and not allowed to move for a year. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Spam is completely solved on a technical level. Full blocks, be they spammy or not, won’t kill bitcoin. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo The whole knots v core debate is the wrong one. We really should be arguing about partitioning block space for standard vs. Non standard transactions npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Decided to add some Bitcoin history and Bitcoiner quotes to the occasional loading screen on Quantoshi…so you don’t see the 1500 msec of caching behind the scenes…there is an Easter egg that will let you scroll through all quotes…102 good ones. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Love your stuff! Made my own for DCA/retirement planning. https://quantoshi.xyz/4 npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo The ideal block is the most costly block to verify…and that’s not necessarily a bad thing, it’s a good thing in fact. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Mathematically I feel like I should. But as I already have a fair amount of debt, I guess in a way I already have…when I didn’t have to pay my medical school loan during COVID, I stacked sats with every penny. That itself will effectively pay off my loans in due time. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo If blocks are totally full of real transactions, then node resource utilization will be higher than if blocks were full of spam. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo This is beyond epic npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Meh…here’s a casualty of excessive soft forking: I have a lot of custom miniscripts I have been working on that will become invalid for spending, ostensibly on a temporary basis…these scripts do stuff that people want: like use these three keys at any time or these two keys if 32768 blocks have passed or this one key if 65534 blocks have passed…that’s not spam! But some scripts that accomplish this or similar security use notif or similarly “bad” formerly approved opcodes… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo With Bitcoin currently trading at the 7th percentile…what do you think results in a bigger stack in 10 years, steady monthly DCA —OR— borrowing 1 years worth of contributions at 13% on an interest only loan and buying bitcoin with the loan…assume loan gets rolled until year 10 when you sell appreciated bitcoin and pay 33% capital gains tax on the bitcoin you sold to pay off the loan… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo 1) I should have seen the pattern by 2016. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I’m trying not to get people to fomo in to Bitcoin. I want people to see the bigger picture. You can lose big time in the short term and still do considerably better than the stock market by years 5-10. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo So it’s kind of like you went back in time to January to sell at January’s 10th percentile. This effect will grow worse 12/31/2026 and disappear 1/1/2027…only to grow worse again by 12/31 npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo It is aligned to January to give you the least rosy/most risky view npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Nope. All I do is look at price history and extend it by percentile in to the future…but it would be really interesting to correlate the current percentile of bitcoin price with on chain metrics. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I implemented tax consequences for borrowing costs associated with Stack-cellerator on Quantoshi npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I’m the American radiologist you met upstairs in Prague 2 years ago…I think you might find my new web app interesting…it’s all about extrapolation of the Bitcoin price trend. Oh how I wish I had Quantoshi in 2010! npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Bitcoin is unfairly cheap right now. Percentile 8.2, in fact. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I think Saylor is really on to something with STRC…you can do a personal version of what Saylor is doing and accelerate your stack…Quantoshi can let you extrapolate the effects of Entering Saylor Mode so you can calculate your Stack-celeration factor… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Here’s a happy thought. Extrapolate your stack with my new web app Quantoshi…it’s really not bad work from a radiologist! npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Yeah…1 bitcoin being used as retirement savings with retirement beginning in 2031…spending $5,000 per month with 4% inflation, a great deal depends on which percentile bitcoin price follows…if you get incredibly unlucky and every sell you get the extrapolated 0.1 percentile, you run out of money by 2041. If you’re less unlucky, and you sell at the 5th, 10th, and 15th percentiles, you run out of money in 2048, 2054, and 2070…but if you get lucky and sell at 20th percentiles, you will have over $100k in 2070… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Want to Accelerate your stack? While I know this sounds crazy, and yes, this is risky, but have you considered extrapolating the effects of borrowing money to buy Bitcoin? npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo One of the problems with AI coding is that AI can make mistakes a human never would and it’s hard to notice. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo True story: I made Quantoshi.xyz on Monday. And now it’s Wednesday and Bitcoin is up like 10% since I shipped my code. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo https://quantoshi.xyz/5 npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Do you have 1 Bitcoin? Thinking of retiring? What might be the effects of delaying your retirement a year? Or two? Or four or eight years? Check out the new HODL supercharger on Quantoshi…there are 80,000,000 reasons for you to check it out, if you look at the legend for the graph…you can thank me later! npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin? What if price crashes to the 0.001st percentile, how much would I lose? npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo The idea is fascinating. Their GitHub repo seems legit…I bet this is pricey AF. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I am here npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I’d also say a year today is like many years in 30 years, so get ‘em while they’re cheap and save every sat you can! npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I really think people need to look long and hard at @npub1cn4…3vle BLOC bitcoin line of credit…Jack is asking you to look around the corner in to the future. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo You already know how many dollars is your stack worth now, but what about next year? What about next decade? npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Share a screen shot, if possible npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Think you can retire in Bitcoin? Customize and share / save a retirement scenario with Quantoshi: https://quantoshi.xyz/#q1:H4sIALhZp2kC_5VU246bMBD9F_c1rGyzIW3eqkj71i-IVtEABqwam7VNNrTqv9fGYHJhHyIEMufMGc-ZMfxFeZ8nH2Z_BtEztD_iF4zJxj237uEXxC-ov_0ifd-MiospQLBZhQSXDDQK3HDHqXoiLhpkHYkjxYRuKE7xlHO4pfFmNxFW1bVgS43INFAyl9Q06vNUgoV5bVUJA5pk7s4FW1O7yEK13awyfTdrZFL1ttexijTAnTX8zyMIomtgRvFLFnBjofh9F-v3uSWOaGBm3rY3LBHKLkU6vGkTJq0eXF9mmGKaXREfy9bbAF-4Te6b7CQUv5L3JeK5cTtVq8qYEY9ITu7e6VLjCBTOTzwC3yjJsp8HNDEtL8nCve38dcXRK-7t-wHjmWv4whwOhMxMraGM_aYjdK5aG4MLqPWUgwmRVNH-jxF8OCCFEkrn7jwH9zdjC-7W5lUW8BDqsa9ioVW9jEU6MwGuNItzRb-UtI0YUKAGvT7cNJtSltx0UZvbYtI9GCx7EKfxO_H0c8dBM3trkwRszabHP-Notth79NgXHj214jElzuNuO-XjshIz-RqgFdsefrANUioL1v853E_pNLY1dsIrnutEC1wmFnKzh8LyMzu5tSvAJeKaoX__Afzrz91bBQAA npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Predicting is what _you_ do with data. This software just does math, it extrapolates. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo You would be exactly correct. One that uses linreg function npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo No. You set up the server, I just had Claude code do it for me. But it’s super easy with Claude. I have a Claude.md file in the github repo so anyone can point Claude to it and say something like: help me run quantoshi n my local computer, or on an aws cloud host, or as a tor hidden service on either, etc npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo How quickly will DCA grow your Bitcoin stack? npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Can we start with Doom? npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo @npub1sk7…jraw @npub1guh…6hjy @npub1qny…95gx npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Claude code is amazing. On Sunday, all I had were some static Jupyter notebooks to run plots for analyzing potential bitcoin purchase scenarios…by Tuesday morning I have an interactive desktop app for Linux, and a web app available on clearnet and tor! npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Unlike years past, one can no longer blindly buy Bitcoin at any price and do well in the future. For example, if one bought bitcoin last year at $121,000, it’ll be ~2030 before compound annual growth rate catches up to a stock market type return. But right now, bitcoin price extrapolation would show way better than average stock market returns over pretty much every timeframe greater than a year. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo So I made an interactive bitcoin price quantile regression plotter with extrapolation as a python script for Jupyter notebooks…and then an interactive entry/exit heatmap using those percentiles and extrapolations. All with Claude’s help…it would take me months to do this on my own, with real blood, sweat, and tears, mind you…but three weeks with me learning how to use Claude…and whoa…I am now the developer I’ve always wanted to hire but never had enough money to buy…
