Renaud
Renaud Cuny

Bitcoin block space analyst | Real-time spam alerts
✉️ Subscribe: https://blockspaceweekly.substack.com

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npub1gth6pfk5gp80dyjx5ll590zqddcf3k8j2qyyqxa6l37utyz4nlzsay3a7q

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nprofile1qqsy9maq5m2yqnhkjfr20l6zh3qxkuycmre9qzzqrwa0clw9jp2el3gpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dslltml8

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Last Notes

2026-05-21 05:03:00 UTC

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Full write-up:
https://blockspaceweekly.substack.com/p/is-bitcoin-earning-its-monetary-premium

2026-05-21 05:00:52 UTC

Bitcoin's price is mostly a bet on its structure.
This week I launched v2 of The Bitcoin Portal, anchored by the Bitcoin Monetary Health Index, a 0–100 score across 7 dimensions of structural health.
Methodology versioned, transparent, opinionated.
https://thebitcoinportal.com
https://blossom.primal.net/83dd526d5d63c57fcc312974d7649b2a88df79b2d3d401efde586009394660ff.png

2026-05-11 13:45:20 UTC

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Congrats Luke!

2026-05-07 15:09:25 UTC

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Thanks, just added LN address to my profile.

2026-05-07 11:00:56 UTC

SpiderPool's large OP_RETURN activity has been accelerating lately -> Five in the last 7 days.
Most recent one: a 10KB MP3 (royalty-free UI click sound from http://SoundJay.com) inscribed in a single transaction via three OP_RETURN outputs, using a 'pwm1:' file-inscription protocol.
https://mempool.guide/tx/1ecf14fbbba8e5fb9bfbde9bde35b10f932c79bb4f979d3e0e477226855c7712
BIP-110 fixes this.
https://thebitcoinportal.com/onchain/spam-analysis/op-return

2026-05-06 09:37:43 UTC

Issue #24 is out.
BIP-110 already shifted the game.
Here's how 👇
https://blockspaceweekly.substack.com/p/issue-24-bip-110-is-a-statement

2026-04-29 06:46:33 UTC

New issue: The 45% Problem
30% (3-year avg) → 37% (6 months ago) → 45% today.
Bitcoin’s blockspace is getting flooded with non-financial data.
The fee market won’t fix it.
Miners won’t fix it.
Here’s what will.
https://blockspaceweekly.substack.com/p/issue-23-the-45-problem
https://blossom.primal.net/a32983699253438d17311abbda7c76b1c32cefb06b04b8db98699942335d0433.png

2026-04-21 10:02:11 UTC

Bitcoin Portal Alerts have a new home!
Dedicated account, open protocol, real-time signals. The right place for Bitcoin-native data.
Follow: http://primal.net/p/nprofile1qqsrypzeh4r8xvlryehtqx27q0g0y293c3tnv5nzy979u3a57x0rncsqfu9u5
npub1xgz9n02xwve7xfnwkqv4uq7s7g5tr3zhxefxygtutermfuv7883qqcwsfd

2026-04-20 10:19:07 UTC

Bitcoin ASIC supply chain: Bitmain + MicroBT = 82% of global output. Both Chinese.
Less known: most ASIC chips are fabricated at TSMC.
The chokepoint is Taiwan.
BMHI #22:
https://blockspaceweekly.substack.com/p/issue-22-mining-health-part-2
https://blossom.primal.net/449c5b9dac1f222763ffb81c7788f9efa8c5a9a81b615d365a114bd700ba1f2f.png

2026-02-16 14:26:06 UTC

Bitcoin Block Space Weekly #11 is out.
BIP-110 is coming. The only question is: who signals first?
This week I break down the mining landscape: Who spams, who doesn't, who's most likely to make the first move, and my take on how activation plays out.
https://blockspaceweekly.substack.com/p/issue-11-who-will-signal-first

2025-12-16 12:26:45 UTC

0.08%... That's the fee premium SpiderPool earns over Ocean by filling blocks with non-financial data.
Issue #2 is out. The data on who's filling Bitcoin's blocks.
https://renaudcuny.substack.com/p/issue-2-f2pool-and-spiderpool-the

2025-12-09 12:04:12 UTC

A few months ago I still thought Core v30 would get delayed, or that fees alone would kill spam.
I was wrong.
So I dug into 18 months of blockchain data from my own node.
Issue #1 of Bitcoin Block Space Weekly is out:
- Marathon tested 1MB OP_RETURN payloads in May
- 3 pools now rotating
- 21% of nodes moved to Knots
- 2 soft-fork proposals gaining traction
renaudcuny.substack.com/p/bitcoin-block-space-weekly-issue

2025-11-18 13:11:22 UTC

“v30 won't change much - miners already bypass policy with direct submission anyway."
I tracked 3months OP_RETURN data to test that claim:
- Before Oct 10: Minimal large OP_RETURNs
- Oct 10: v30 is released
- Same day: F2Pool mines a 97KB OP_RETURN.
- After Oct 10: Clear increase.
Who's doing this?
F2Pool , Marathon, SpiderPool -> Combined 22-23% of the hashrate
23% of miners can turn 100% of nodes into large file (spam) storage devices.
v30 relay policy enabled this. Consensus rules will fix it.
https://blossom.primal.net/f5802acfcd809c67ab4e120ba28c9436350239c560d965ad066453c6c54eee2d.jpg
https://blossom.primal.net/8959e28c060167be4a7d4c52685c81a8ac261a94502dc76791a6ec55dbee78c7.jpg

2025-08-28 05:04:14 UTC

Bitcoin hashrate trending higher -> Now at 972EH/s.
Wen 1000EH/s?
I’d say quite soon…

2025-08-20 03:16:19 UTC

Crypto sentiment back to Fear zone 😨
Bitcoin price is highly correlated with sentiment.
We could test $110k today…
Fear zones are usually good times to accumulate though.

2025-07-05 11:53:58 UTC

Bitcoin hashrate again back to 1000EH/s 👀
https://blossom.primal.net/c9772e2e85e44369949929311239a60bdc9505ef65db9bd2c97fbbabe8a964e6.jpg

2025-06-12 09:21:30 UTC

🧵 "Bitcoin is a ghost town" they say, pointing to quiet mempools
But in the last 3 months, $60B+ moved on-chain daily on average
That's 588,824 BTC flowing through the network every single day
The "ghost town" crowd is measuring the wrong thing entirely... 👇
2/ Here's what's actually happening:
While transaction COUNT dropped slightly, transaction VALUE remains massive:
$60B+ daily on-chain transfers
4.3M BTC weekly (21.6% of total supply)
Same volume levels as 5 months ago
This isn't a ghost town - it's serious money moving seriously
3/ Plot twist: Bitcoin on-chain value often EXCEEDS daily spot trading volume
June 11th example:
🟠 624,437 BTC moved on-chain
⚪ 467,791 BTC spot volume
Real Bitcoin → Real wallets vs. Paper trading → Same coins recycling
Which one matters more? 🤔
4/ What this actually signals:
✅ Less speculation, more actual utility
✅ Institutions moving capital quietly
✅ Bitcoin working as designed: final settlement layer
✅ Empty mempool = efficiency, not abandonment
The network is maturing, not dying
5/ The "ghost town" narrative completely misses the point
Bitcoin isn't about constant mempool chaos - it's about moving real value efficiently
What other "obvious" metrics do you think tell incomplete Bitcoin stories?
🔍 Building tools to dig deeper into these questions

2025-05-02 20:06:47 UTC

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Cool idea

2025-01-31 22:05:23 UTC

I can no longer copy and paste to my primal client. Anybody having same problem?

2025-01-30 21:01:22 UTC

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Sounds like a dream job!

2025-01-12 19:06:27 UTC

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Well said. And X has been pretty dark lately…

2024-12-02 19:23:08 UTC

Let’s remember the last moments of #Bitcoin below $100K.
We’ll remember that with a bit of nostalgia..

2024-10-23 07:09:58 UTC

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Also interesting to consider how the game theory may play out at government level. Government is made of people who, some of them at least, will want their share of Bitcoin. They may not have strong incentives to push for confiscatory laws.

2024-10-18 02:53:47 UTC

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Unfortunately the church has been infiltrated by some people who hate God and its creation.

2024-10-10 11:49:39 UTC

The Global Race for Bitcoin
https://m.primal.net/LRDT.webp
One of the most interesting aspects Bitcoin is the game theory.
Thanks to its unique characteristics (scarcity, decentralization, security, divisibility, portability, fungibility, transparency and more) Bitcoin is without a doubt a superior form of money. Yet, because it is still new, only a small portion of global population has adopted it.
That's where game theory comes in: Every entity in the society (individual, family, communities, institutions, private companies, corporate, public sector, nation state) must make a choice: Shall I bet on that new form of money or rather stick with the current one?
Individuals and entities choosing not to move run the risk of being left behind. Those who decide to move will enjoy the benefits of being early but also need to consider the risk (even if small) of Bitcoin being abandoned at some point for whatever reason.
What's more, financial institutions that we'd expect to reject Bitcoin the most because of their privileged position, now have to carefully evaluate the risk of Bitcoin winning and them losing by joining too late. Could that explain the confusing messages we seem to be getting: On some TV channels we hear Blackrock's CEO selling the unique merits of Bitcoin and Bitcoin ETF, on the other hand we hear Jamie Dimon dismissing Bitcoin as a 'pet rock' that does nothing. Are these two really in disagreement or are they playing their own version of the game to confuse the populace while planning on getting as many Bitcoin as possible?

2024-10-10 05:38:02 UTC

Hold #Bitcoin, sit back, relax...
https://m.primal.net/LQnn.webp

2024-10-09 11:15:47 UTC

🚀 Why Every Bitcoiner Should Run Their Own Node!
Running a Bitcoin node is easier than you think and crucial for the decentralization of the network! It empowers you to verify transactions independently and contribute to the Bitcoin ecosystem. 💪
Curious about how to set one up and why it matters? Check out my latest post for all the insights!
https://renaudcuny.substack.com/p/on-the-importance-of-running-a-bitcoin
#Bitcoin #Blockchain #BitcoinNode

2024-10-08 11:43:30 UTC

Coolest aspect of being Bitcoiner is when you realize the most talented people in Bitcoin work for you and you also work for them.
It's quite an amazing feeling.

2024-08-31 18:19:52 UTC

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Thanks!

2024-08-22 10:04:53 UTC

Bitcoin: Overpriced or undervalued? Check my latest analysis using regression trend lines to decode market signals. Find out where BTC stands today and what it means.
https://open.substack.com/pub/renaudcuny/p/riding-the-bitcoin-wave-using-regression?r=32un6z&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

2024-06-08 16:28:22 UTC

See my latest article on Bitcoin price modeling:
Bitcoin Price Modelling— An Alternative to Power Law https://medium.com/@renaudcuny/bitcoin-price-modelling-an-alternative-to-power-law-4f280a390974

2024-05-29 19:43:41 UTC

How scarce is bitcoin?
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/renaud-cuny_bitcoin-blockchain-activity-7201550385939931136-S6qC?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

2024-05-06 17:18:12 UTC

How I see #bitcoin this year:
- $80k by August
- $150k by December (assuming bull run starts in fall)

2024-04-09 12:16:32 UTC

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So true. I find it harder than it seems

2024-03-15 10:44:16 UTC

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Hi everyone, I’m new here…