Bill Witte

Unfortunately, for humans, it’s this unpredictable large variance that makes fire dangerous. The solution that worked in the past is to foster mutual aid agreements with our neighbors, esp. Canada.

2026-07-21 03:43:20 UTC

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… and blueberries! 🫐

2026-07-15 16:58:11 UTC

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TU. Great accessible update. I appreciate his final warnings on extrapolating models based on past experience into regimes that exceed historical records. Likewise we will learn more about the effects of extreme El Niño on humanity.

2026-06-24 20:07:53 UTC

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Clear air moving in from the South.
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/116/806/879/098/031/586/original/353748443423ea9a.jpeg

2026-06-22 21:56:42 UTC

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Getting to the situation where Fairbanks is surrounded by fire - doesn’t make a difference which way the wind blows. A couple air tractors/fire bosses just passed over headed out to Minto.

2026-06-20 00:25:35 UTC

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And let’s keep those human-caused fires down. Take a walk around the neighborhood and let GVEA know if they’ve got trees hanging over power lines.

2026-06-13 02:42:24 UTC

Minto Flats is looking very wet right now. And hazy. @npub1ygf…tutr #alaskawx #summer2026
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/116/740/485/008/320/655/original/dacf9e9774cc5bbe.jpeg

2026-06-09 15:28:40 UTC

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Nice. We could see the valley fog developing overnight and had a good view as we scampered around protecting plants. The rapid cooling caused the house windows to fog over. Our lowest air temp was 34°F but deck boards, wet from the rain, iced over nicely.

2026-06-01 18:43:18 UTC

47°F overcast with light winds on Keystone Ridge at 10:30am. Measured 0.4” of rain in the last 24 hrs. Temp dropped 10 Fahrenheit degrees yesterday afternoon and the fog rolled in. Clearing now with a clear view of the Alaska Range and a blue Chinook (snow eater) window open just a crack. #MyAlaskaWx

2026-05-15 04:58:57 UTC

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Happy Birch and Poplar pollen day!
https://www.uaf.edu/ces/healthy-individuals/pollen-count/index.php

2026-05-14 06:46:07 UTC

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Seems if you had a spatial data set it’d be less damaging to lose a couple interior points.

2026-05-14 00:56:41 UTC

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Does the change in surface albedo and re-radiation significantly push the atmosphere to more convection? And more showers/T-showers?

2026-05-11 00:35:09 UTC

Lightning recorded SE of Fbks.
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/116/553/126/430/151/535/original/d5728cc15a4c7f05.jpeg

2026-05-09 07:41:16 UTC

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Time to watch out for grass fires in the interior.

2026-05-06 19:51:11 UTC

It’s not over. Overnight low of 30°F allowed ~1/4” accumulation of snow on cool surfaces on Keystone Ridge (~1650ft MSL). Photos compare snowpack on 4/21/26 and 5/6/26. The relentless snowpack melt continues though there’s always hope for an always welcomed June snow. #MyAlaskaWx
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/116/529/338/019/741/999/original/7f7db48c8bd7f0ce.jpeg
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/116/529/338/160/072/795/original/2f97f98592bbef85.jpeg

2026-05-03 07:15:39 UTC

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The final decline in snow depth is so rapid. Like Hemingway describing how bankruptcy occurs: gradually and then suddenly.

2026-04-29 03:05:23 UTC

Whew, wild afternoon, wind picked up, flipped direction 180 degrees, and temp dropped 15°F this afternoon with a bit of drizzle on Keystone Ridge. It’s nice to have the melt-out slow down a bit. About 1,000 gal of roof water collected for the garden. @npub1ygf…tutr
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/116/485/762/382/691/713/original/3623922bad46fb34.png

2026-04-25 20:37:30 UTC

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not too hot, not too cold

2026-04-24 15:37:11 UTC

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Under a broken overcast the low temperature last night was 42°F - big thaw. Time to start catching roof melt water in earnest.

2026-04-23 20:29:07 UTC

Something else to worry about. Goes back to decision to legalize internet gambling. @npub1ygf…tutr @climatologist49 https://www.wsj.com/business/unusual-weather-bets-on-polymarket-spur-french-investigation-b799bec8?st=i4i8fb

2026-04-11 18:01:12 UTC

Don’t Don’t look up. Probably most Fairbanks roofs have shed their snow by now but it’s not good to be on the receiving end. This is a small porch roof - our other roofs have snow stops so we can collect melt water.
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/116/387/367/889/846/005/original/b0a94d0cbffb0751.jpeg

2026-04-09 17:52:08 UTC

35°F overcast with light Graupel and a south breeze at 9:45am on Keystone Ridge. #myalaskawx

2026-04-06 23:47:28 UTC

Possible fallstreak hole? @npub1ygf…tutr @npub1z0w…vryl
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/116/360/419/153/465/844/original/852c6c5ffde67761.jpeg

2026-04-03 20:45:48 UTC

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Up to 28°F at noon Friday on Keystone Ridge with low down to 17°F overnight. Very orange full moon at ~midnight over the Alaska Range. Another sign of seasonal warming is deepening tree wells in sunny spots. #myalaskawx

2026-04-03 02:00:46 UTC

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Is there bare ground in western Alaska? https://charts.ecmwf.int/content/20260403015920-d95e8aacf386e9c3bc54f3c39277a5fc2303d63e.pdf

2026-04-03 01:38:24 UTC

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Very hazy today from Murphy Dome. Smoke? Dust?

2026-03-19 04:13:23 UTC

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Time to head North.
Forecast high temperatures this weekend in Socorro, NM in the mid 90’s °F. Record March high in Socorro was 91°F on 20 March 1907 (https://wrcc.dri.edu/).
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/116/253/872/519/771/201/original/28bbe9ab3161429f.jpeg

2026-03-06 16:24:24 UTC

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Good to see a healthy snowpack - to recharge those aquifers and wetlands. Traveling in NM recently, the below historic normal snowpack was evident: https://nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/imap/#version=2&elements=&networks=!&states=!&basins=!&hucs=&minElevation=&maxElevation=&elementSelectType=any&activeOnly=true&activeForecastPointsOnly=false&hucLabels=false&hucIdLabels=false&hucParameterLabels=true&stationLabels=&overlays=&hucOverlays=2&basinOpacity=75&basinNoDataOpacity=25&basemapOpacity=100&maskOpacity=0&mode=data&openSections=dataElement,parameter,date,basin,options,elements,location,networks&controlsOpen=false&popup=&popupMulti=&popupBasin=&base=esriNgwm&displayType=basinstation&basinType=6&dataElement=WTEQ&depth=-2&parameter=PCTMED&frequency=MONTHLY&duration=I&customDuration=&dayPart=E&monthPart=E&forecastPubDay=1&forecastExceedance=50&useMixedPast=true&seqColor=1&divColor=7&scaleType=D&scaleMin=&scaleMax=&referencePeriodType=POR&referenceBegin=1991&referenceEnd=2020&minimumYears=20&hucAssociations=true&relativeDate=-1&lat=38.90&lon=-118.49&zoom=2.4

2026-03-04 14:36:10 UTC

-7°F with a persistent NE breeze gusting to 20mph at 6:15am on Keystone Ridge. Bright waning 99% full moon casting shadows on snow. #MyAKwx
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/116/171/395/745/647/311/original/db254ff7a53ef9de.jpeg

2026-03-01 20:19:09 UTC

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Nice! Shows that it doesn’t always need to warm up for it to snow in Fbks. Ironically road service area contracts allow contractors to pause plowing if the official temp < -20°F, so more time to appreciate the fluffy good stuff.

2026-02-26 18:43:26 UTC

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With a deep inversion, up to -14°F on Keystone Ridge, -19°F on Moose Mtn and some bad air quality in NP.

2026-02-25 17:41:11 UTC

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How’s Fbks doing on season-to-date snowfall? (Asking for a Road Service area friend).

2026-02-09 22:24:55 UTC

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Wind in the interior uplands has been fierce January thru current. Video looks like Mars (if it had a breathable atmosphere)

2026-02-04 05:36:39 UTC

Well, this is a surprising little snow squall. Moderate to heavy snow, about 1” to 1 1/2” accumulation so far with gusts up to 26 mph and 10°F on Keystone Ridge at 8:30pm. Forecast kept calling for less snow and I wondered if we’d get any at all… #MyAlaskaWx
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/116/010/729/073/182/185/original/3b29f2efae10246c.mp4

2026-02-04 00:02:14 UTC

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Could you do this with MODIS surface temp comparing valleys and highland ridges? (Depending on how far back MMODUS goes and how far forward the data is available).

2026-02-03 20:02:02 UTC

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Is there a metric for days of inversion or depth of inversion? How long have soundings been taken at Fairbanks?

2026-01-24 23:07:14 UTC

It’s a good day for Fata Morgana as density variations of the cold stratified air around Fairbanks distort Mts on the horizon. #myalaskawx #mirage #FataMorgana
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/952/575/931/008/270/original/ada8b19c63817fba.jpeg
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/952/583/077/387/222/original/20d5f9412821758b.jpeg

2026-01-22 22:50:38 UTC

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Max for today. (I rounded up). Probably gettin some from below horizontal via reflection, I’ll take it - a watt’s a watt.

2026-01-22 22:27:29 UTC

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Yes, very sunny, and clear. Sun only 6° above horizon today at 1:30pm local.
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/941/093/559/765/610/original/038a57a835aaf20c.jpeg

2026-01-16 23:44:17 UTC

A potent slug of cold air flowing up Goldstream Creek from the west in the last 30 minutes dropping temperatures about 1°F/minute and bringing in dense valley fog. @npub1ygf…tutr #myalaskawx
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/907/407/520/384/542/original/5ea26ada1d7bdafc.jpeg
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/907/407/829/650/021/original/85a1ced91cf75b45.jpeg

2026-01-13 19:29:50 UTC

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🎂

2026-01-12 17:34:53 UTC

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🤔 What conditions favor this? Persistent low interior AK temperatures usually need stable high pressure and clear skies, but that blocks storms from the interior. How’d the moisture find its way in? But I’m loving the fluffy powdery snow we have been getting. Beats “concrete from the sky” any day.

2026-01-11 17:59:43 UTC

12°F, light SE wind and heavy to moderate snow on Keystone Ridge, about 10” storm total so far. On radar it looks like a snow river shooting up the Nenana Canyon. #MyAlaskaWx
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/877/753/363/915/915/original/8def7fd412ffdc71.mp4

2026-01-10 23:57:25 UTC

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Similarly for Keystone Ridge with the exception of Christmas Eve 2025 when we got up to 4°F.
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/873/501/286/716/612/original/1cd13e4c15070042.jpeg

2026-01-09 17:26:35 UTC

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Speaking of wildlife we had a report from a reputable observer of a “winter bear” (a black bear) up and foraging on Dec 28, near Sherman and Abraham Rd.

2026-01-09 17:21:18 UTC

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How’s the snowpack doing? Only 16” yesterday on Keystone Ridge. Deep cold plus thin snowpack doesn’t bode well for buried pipes (or hibernating wildlife). AKDOT temperature depth probe (TPS) data shows (literally) deep cold. Below shows temperature (°F) vs. Depth (surface to 72 inch) from the Parks Hwy at the Chena River. Subsurface is frozen with a relatively low conductivity-full effect won’t be seen until May/June.
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/866/249/565/984/615/original/0af5b6054d824dc2.jpeg

2026-01-07 15:58:11 UTC

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Warmer in the valleys this morning.

2026-01-06 19:05:13 UTC

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Sullivan and Begich are actively trying to forget. Tried to call AK Congress reps to remind them of their failures to respond to the insurrection and both Begich and Sullivan constituent phone lines had been suspended. Murkowski’s was working.

2026-01-06 16:52:48 UTC

Light fine snow, 0.5-2mm columnar crystals, with about 3/4” accumulation since late afternoon yesterday. Thin overcast with a faint waning gibbous moon at 7:30am and -8°F with a light north breeze. #myalaskawx

2026-01-05 19:50:00 UTC

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Nice!

2026-01-03 16:16:26 UTC

We’re enjoying a full moon up all day and night spinning around the horizon taking a similar route as the summer midnight sun.
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/832/045/562/018/113/original/a474307c63bc8c43.jpeg

2026-01-03 07:01:43 UTC

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Reality test for us folks in the cheap seats: Is the December Average the arithmetic average of 31 averages of the daily high and daily low?

2026-01-02 21:57:54 UTC

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Looks like most recent top-ten-coldest was 1999? Last century.

2026-01-01 08:41:46 UTC

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Wow, dedicated observer.

2025-12-30 23:38:26 UTC

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Thanks. Went to town and cold air was still pooled into -30°F discrete blobs in Spinach, Moose, and Goldstream Creeks - town was warmer and hardly foggy at all.

2025-12-30 22:33:58 UTC

Dark cloud bank has settled south of Fbks during the last couple days. Sun pops over the very sharp top for about 30 min at solar noon. Tops are considerably higher than hills (~5000ft?) Is there a higher thermal layer? @npub1ygf…tutr
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/810/874/551/847/080/original/a33c24cd85a377e9.jpeg
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/810/874/623/156/368/original/77b3ed6e20345dc6.jpeg

2025-12-28 23:27:44 UTC

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on the other hand, St Louis MO, record high 78°F (which will change shortly).

2025-12-23 01:06:30 UTC

Waxing (8%) crescent moon over the Alaska Range.
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/766/179/330/986/592/original/730bc0d5cf8662e8.jpeg

2025-12-21 22:12:43 UTC

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Sunrise Solstice 2025. Sharpness of the Alaska Range is surprising.
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/759/837/401/436/078/original/9de175d2719ee3f8.jpeg
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/759/837/490/790/118/original/52604e18419e43f8.jpeg

2025-12-21 18:44:43 UTC

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With an unsurprising increase in pm2.5 variance on purple air.com. Valley stations generally record higher values due to stratified, unmixed air. My station records the timing on fires in our masonry heater.
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/759/016/287/581/388/original/6b21841aef4a0a86.jpeg
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/759/016/399/086/495/original/b5fe85dc1b7bc312.jpeg

2025-12-19 20:50:25 UTC

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The blind man and the elephant.

2025-12-17 17:50:43 UTC

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Scientific truth is intolerable because it shows no loyalty to the autocrat. Beyond disasters caused by Rumsfeldian unknown unknowns are the disasters born from intentional “don’t wanna know” unknowns.

2025-12-17 02:48:40 UTC

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Hazy ice crystal mist all day.

2025-12-17 02:47:15 UTC

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Fbks inversion is weak over the local hills - why’s that?

2025-12-15 19:12:07 UTC

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There is often a noticeable 5-10°F gradient in still air between ground level and the thermometer at 20ft above the ground. I’ve also felt micro-pockets (say 100 yard diameter) of cold air floating around in valleys.

2025-12-11 09:15:39 UTC

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Goldstream Creek not far behind tonight.

2025-12-08 21:25:11 UTC

Wind has calmed down on Keystone Ridge and temp is rising, might break zero degrees F as the air column restratifies - just like salad dressing bottle if you stop shaking it. Enjoying near horizontal yellow sunshine and clear skies this solar noon. #myalaskawx

2025-12-07 22:03:23 UTC

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We’re inviting all the St Lawrencians to the Golden Heart City for the SPF.

2025-12-07 20:22:36 UTC

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With our recent winds the trees are similarly bare of snow now.

2025-12-07 20:19:42 UTC

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Holy tie-down Batman! Keeping light aircraft safe in that wind will be a challenge.

2025-12-06 17:56:39 UTC

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Related? Has NWS recovered from DOGE yet in AK? https://wapo.st/48mGeZ1 #WarOnScience

2025-12-06 17:32:54 UTC

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Noisy overnight wind from the northeast on Keystone Ridge kept the temp above -10°F while not sacrificing the wintry vibe.
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/673/798/281/370/462/original/ef260c4e5909ea92.jpeg

2025-12-05 23:54:51 UTC

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In Kelvins it’s only about a 4% error.

2025-12-05 18:15:26 UTC

Stratified cold calm air in Goldstream Valley. Not quite “…locked tight as a drum” yet - but give it a couple weeks.
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/668/301/603/249/318/original/6f9b4432f118bf6f.jpeg

2025-12-04 04:53:31 UTC

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Yup. Bright moon on fresh snow.
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/659/480/293/462/321/original/993b6483ec1b0bf2.jpeg

2025-12-04 00:07:06 UTC

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Local permafrost appreciates the effort.

2025-12-02 19:11:31 UTC

29°F, calm winds,overcast with 90% RH at 9:30am on Keystone Ridge. Sure feels like snow but no flakes yet. Maybe all we get is a vigorous hoar frost? #MyAlaskaWx

2025-12-01 01:15:50 UTC

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I’ve faith that predictable path of the sun, clear skies, and thermodynamics will prevail. As I remember (probably from your posts) we do have a diminishing probability of achieving “long cold snaps”. “More than X days below Y degrees” or similar.

2025-11-29 19:17:50 UTC

#sunrise
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/634/584/734/905/710/original/a833b399ad37548e.jpeg

2025-11-27 17:20:08 UTC

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Mercalli 5, so far.

2025-11-26 21:56:11 UTC

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Commercial outfits agree. But they’re just repackaged public data with fees and advertising. No value added (well, pretty colors).
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/618/223/965/005/923/original/c89d0959ebb2574b.png

2025-11-26 20:41:45 UTC

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But during these low sun-angle days if you put the sun in that narrow slit of a window…I call that a 💯 “sunny day”. Sunlight’s oblique passage through the atmosphere is hard to describe-especially via those robot observers. Thank goodness for the likes of Sydney Laurence

2025-11-22 16:02:14 UTC

The public safety net continues to thin out. Fewer slices of swiss cheese and more holes. https://www.arrl.org/news/skywarn-recognition-day-2025-cancelled

2025-11-11 06:19:57 UTC

Starting to see more moose tracks and actual visitors in the Keystone Ridge neighborhood. About 4 yrs ago we had a big drop in tracks and numbers - good to see them come back.
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/529/599/395/042/392/original/86a5e4c02cb721b2.mp4

2025-11-02 12:04:48 UTC

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Seemed like another cloudy month or maybe just the mood?

2025-11-02 11:50:44 UTC

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The fluffy, slow, light flakes of yore.

2025-10-31 20:18:18 UTC

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weird weather

2025-10-29 17:55:29 UTC

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https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/458/724/932/777/566/original/592eca1f5faa0fe0.jpeg

2025-10-29 16:38:51 UTC

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Clear skies also brought some good Aurora viewing last night.

2025-10-26 15:22:39 UTC

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Seems like October has continued the cloudy trend from September. Shielded from the coastal storms we’ve not been very snowy/rainy in the interior and the clouds have kept us from cooling at night with mostly non-inverted temperatures. I’m not missing the ice storms … but the season is still young.

2025-10-16 21:14:23 UTC

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Remarkably different trend lines.

2025-10-13 03:30:07 UTC

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That was a striking wind shift and warmup starting at about 11am this morning.

2025-10-11 16:27:46 UTC

29°F, light breeze from the east on Keystone Ridge at 8:15am. A light skiff of snow on ridges and domes persists from yesterday’s flurries along with fog clinging to Ester and Murphy Domes.
https://alaskansocial.files.fedi.monster/media_attachments/files/115/356/456/774/845/847/original/f6f0c76feb23cea6.jpeg

2025-10-09 05:18:59 UTC

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After a rainy grey day a strong southwest wind is sweeping low clouds off the ridges in Fairbanks this evening. The just-past-full moon has been peeking out dramatically over Keystone Ridge. #MyAlaskaWx

2025-10-03 20:01:00 UTC

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About 1” on Keystone Ridge in fog at 7am. SW wind picked up (gusting to 20 mph) and temp bumped up from 32°F to 35°F with wet snow changing into rain. Noticed a small GVEA outage along MDR on the way into town.

2025-10-03 19:54:55 UTC

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😬

2025-10-02 23:05:36 UTC

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Thank you for the radio segments 🙏

2025-10-02 22:01:22 UTC

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How did cloudiness in Fbks during Sept ‘25 compare with an average year? Seemed a bit gloomy, but there might have been other factors.