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Last Notes

2026-06-01 09:42:23 CEST

Friends & colleagues, I have been advised that my instance has been over-run with Russian chatbots & so this afternoon will be transferring to a new instance.
As a result later today (and possibly into tomorrow) there will be a hiatus in posting while I work my way through the transfer protocol.
I will post from the new instance when the transfer is complete - you should find there is no need for you to do anything if you want to continue following my posts.
More on this later
#mastodon

2026-06-01 08:03:30 CEST

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Bite Size Economics No. 3
'markets are never free'
The idea that in some ideal world markets can be free misunderstands how markets work; they are dependent on property & contract laws shaped by the state (or in earlier times the local political authority).
Historically markets have operated without formal laws, but even then community trust & local authority set the norms for market interactions.
All markets are regulated the issue is how & by whom?
#BiteSizeEconomics #economics #markets

2026-06-01 07:28:09 CEST

In another hint of the slow but sure pivot away from the US engineered by the Tangerine Tyrant, it looks like the Norwegians, having rejected membership of the EU twice, are again (seriously) considering a move to join the EU in light of the changing global political environment.
There is of course 'many a slip twixt cup & lip' but even the serious consideration of such a move tells us much about how the USA's position in the global political economy is changing!
#EU #Norway #politics
h/t FT

2026-06-01 07:24:14 CEST

For all its reputation as a country of rampant free market capitalism, the USA's corporate profitability may be in part (by some reckoning 50%) dependent on the deficit funding of the state;
which is to say that the US is actually a massive corporate welfare machine, pumping public money raised on international bond markets (through sales & holding of so-called T-bills across the world) into the private sector.
If so, US capitalism *does* look rather different!
#capitalism #USA
h/t FT

2026-05-31 19:25:22 CEST

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Indeed, the yield on already existing bonds is only of interest in that it drives the interest rates (yield/pricing - a subject of a Bite Sized Economics pst in a few days) of new issues of bonds.... so while the state can refuse to issue new bonds at a specific yield/price, unless it then expands credit creation (itself driving up yields) then it needs to still sell bonds.
The key issue is whether the state can wean itself off bond sales & what the costs would be

2026-05-31 13:25:40 CEST

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The key issue here is how the creation of credit impacts on asset values & their treatment in the recording of inflation.... so, we are sometimes told that QE (a massive creation of credit) didn't really cause any inflation, but actually it did in asset markets (and continues to do so) but these (housing & shares especially) are not included fully in inflation measures, hence obscuring the role of credit creation (I'm not a monetarist but the effects are also not trivial)

2026-05-31 10:47:24 CEST

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I agree with your final point & also as noted earlier am not convinced incarceration is working in general, but as you point out 'victims must be given support and comfort, as well as knowledge that this won't happen again'... but this is not what seems to be happening here.

2026-05-31 10:24:10 CEST

Rightly ReformUK Ltd's donations have come under scrutiny (not least due to the dependence on a couple of key donors to fund the company masquerading as a political party); but now, this financial scrutiny has also swing round to its expenditure(s) (and its predecessor Brexit Party) - what have they been spending their money on?
From their accounts its apparently not clear (with a large hole of unaccounted spending). The financial dodginess of ReformUK grows by the day.
#politics
h/t Observer

2026-05-31 10:02:23 CEST

While many of us are critical of the lack of custodial sentence for sexual assault by young perpetrators (given the seriousness of the crimes & the impact on the victims), this is not to argue that imprisonment of young offenders is working... it clearly isn't.
The care, offence, prison, reoffending cycle suggests that for a key group of young people whose circumstances are already dysfunctional, society is failing to extricate them from an environment that encourages criminality.
#politics

2026-05-31 09:15:28 CEST

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Bite Size Economics No. 2
'Money is trust'
Money is usually seen as a store of value or a means of exchange but these functions depend on its manifestation of trust.
We trust money is acceptable to others (in the form we want to use from paper money to digital payments); we trust its value is (at least in the medium term) relatively stable.
When our trust declines so does money's stability (inflation, barter exchange). So, without our trust money cannot work!
#BiteSizeEconomics #economics

2026-05-31 08:57:59 CEST

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Yes, the lack of rehabilitation (caused by the ongoing crisis in prisons & the capacity for non-security attention to prisoners) is clearly a contributory factor, I agree

2026-05-30 23:23:33 CEST

The Green Parry of England & Wales is being urged by its current & past leader(s) to listen to what those who are considering voting for ReformUK Ltd. are concerned about; as Zack Polanski says, its inequality, so the GPEW will stress
'when multimillionaires & billionaires are taking more money than ever before, the problem is not someone who is fleeing for their lives & might be travelling by small boat. The problem is flying above our head by private jet'!
#politics
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/30/green-leaders-warn-party-it-must-listen-to-reform-voters-concerns-to-tackle-inequality

2026-05-30 19:29:58 CEST

After last week you likely don't need telling that the UK is getting hotter, but just in case you weren't sure here is Met Office data on the clear trend (although of course the variation around that trend line is also considerable).
So, are new houses being built in a way that will help residents cope with extreme heat?
Is the country seeking to reorganise itself to counter heat spikes?
No... of course not; we'll just complain about the weather & carry on regardless.
#heatwave #politics
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/664/697/707/021/888/original/9d9fdc9c7bdeb6d3.png

2026-05-30 13:56:11 CEST

Bite Sized Economics No. 1 (remix)
'interest is the price of risk'!
If a higher interest rate is being changed there is more risk of non-repayment.
This is why some people are charged more for loans & why some 'investments' are offered with higher interest rates.
Knowing this helps make sense of loans & investments; and is a useful scam warning
If an interest rate is out of line, ask yourself, why?
#BiteSizedEconomics #economics

2026-05-30 10:30:18 CEST

Is the precarious character of contemporary work & economic life fort many the driver of political change?
Guy Standing has been saying this for a while in various ways, but you'll still find his latest for @npub1me6…lgcf a clear statement of a plausible analysis.
#workers #politics
https://www.opendemocracy.net/the-precariat-election-ignoring-class-and-insecurity-imperils-labour/?ref=weekly-newsletter

2026-05-30 09:26:06 CEST

Just in case you thought the lamentable case of teenage rapists escaping prison was an isolated case of apparent disregard for the (lifetime of) harm done to their victims; The Guardian has found three more cases in the North East of England.
This emphasis (again) that there is something wrong in how the justice system tis weighing the plight of the victims in rapes against the 'damage' to the future of the young male attackers!
#SexualAssault #politics
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/may/29/teenage-boys-rape-sentencing-youth-courts

2026-05-30 08:53:26 CEST

Although he subsequently apologised for the phrasing, Bill Winters (CEO, Standard Chartered), has introduced the phrase 'lower-value human capital' in to public discourse....
If you ever wanted an example of the contempt that our executive business class have for ordinary workers, this would be it... in just four words, Winters summed up the way the top table in most firms seem to see their workforce.
The inhumanity of the capitalist class is not new, but increasingly brazen!
#workers
h/t FT

2026-05-29 11:33:39 CEST

RE: https://zirk.us/@ChrisMayLA6/116654332856789077
I'm playing round with re-purposing the post below (and re-posting it) as the first in a series of posts called 'bite-sized economics' where I take an idea & give a thumbnail sketch of why its useful for our thinking about the political economy of the UK (and the wider world).
I'd be interested if you think you'd value that... I have an initial list of about ten posts & of course expect some to spark difference & debate....
let me know what you think
#economics #PoliticalEconomy
#note1ryr…fgg7

2026-05-29 07:15:18 CEST

John Burn-Murdoch (FT) suggests rather than AI being the cause of a decline in entry level jobs, actually it may be the rise of remote working (working from home) that has made employing new starters less attractive.
New hires require more supervision & need to be inculcated into the ways of their employer, all of which is more difficult remotely.
This also may explain why younger workers are less keen on WfH than those with more established careers.
#WorkingFromHome #workers #AI #employment

2026-05-28 23:30:58 CEST

I was asked to day what I thought was the one bit of economic knowledge anyone should know..... and I said this:
'interest is the price of risk'!
so if a higher interest rate is being changed there is more risk of non-repayment.
If you know this, you can recognise why some people are charged more for loans & why some 'investments' are offered with higher interest rates.
This simple piece of knowledge helps make sense of loans & investments.... and is a useful scam warning
#economics

2026-05-28 23:21:13 CEST

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Although as I've noted, the comply focus on education for work undermines the humanistic value of education itself - I'm not saying ignore vocational issues, but they cannot (shouldn't) be the be all & end all of higher education

2026-05-28 19:20:07 CEST

So next year, if the deal is finalised, UK food exporters to the EU (and importers from the EU) will find, after considerable negotiation the frictions brought in by Brexit, will for the most part be reduced or withdrawn.
So, just to be clear after some years of higher costs, and then some protracted negotiations, we are now approaching the situation for one sector's involvement with the EU market, that we had before Brexit.
Result! /s
#Brexit #politics
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-450-modern-growth-surges

2026-05-28 13:31:00 CEST

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If I can be a bit academic for a moment; in current use, it sort of derives from Jurgen Habermas' notion of political communication which he drew from the Greek notion of the agora.... a place for social exchange(s). So the idea of the town square is somewhere we can all meet and discuss - a sort of more picturesque way of saying the public realm (I guess)

2026-05-28 13:20:16 CEST

Has China's growth in the last half century been greater than industrialisation of the United States in the C19th?
Adam Tooze concludes that while in proportionate terms the US accelerated growth remains unbeaten, in absolute terms (and in a more developed global context) the Chinese economic development path of the last 50 years really is unprecedented....
Does it matter?
Well, understanding China as we pivot away from the USA seems a good idea.
#China #economics
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-450-modern-growth-surges

2026-05-28 07:55:24 CEST

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Good morning, Alex, and thanks as always for your attentive eye - typo now corrected

2026-05-28 07:41:23 CEST

Disappointingly, but all to predictably Jonathan Liew exercise a long critique of X (formally Twitter), but concludes that the 'utopian idea of the digital town square is dead for ever' without even mentioning Mastodon, which while not perfect (seem to me) to get quite a long way towards that ideal....
We've noted before how (wilfully?) blind to Mastodon mainstream journalists are, so we shouldn't be surprised, just disappointed (again).
#mastodon #SocialMedia
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/may/28/still-on-x-ask-yourself-why-platform-twitter-malign-actors-misinformation

2026-05-28 07:20:02 CEST

A key element of the crisis engulfing universities is the breakdown in community between the academic staff & the managerial cadre (badly) running their institutions.
As Stefan Collini says: 'Members of the academic staff cease to be regarded as colleagues whose co-operation should be solicited; instead, they are treated as a disaffected workforce liable to make trouble if given a hint of the cuts being prepared by the senior management team'!
#universities #politics
https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v48/n10/stefan-collini/squadrons-of-pigs

2026-05-27 23:24:23 CEST

Andy Burnham has accused Tony Blair of not understanding the role of inequality in politics, but actually for the Blairites (and Blue Labour & other Right Labour factions), inequality is a key economic lever or incentive, albeit differing by class.
Blair & his familiars are fully paid up believers in a model of economic motivation where the rich need more money to motivate the, but the poor music have less to force them into economic activity.
He's Thatcher's child!
#politics #economics

2026-05-27 19:32:36 CEST

The reform of university financing & specifically the student loan system will only come when we reject the notion that most (or indeed all) the benefits of attending university are captured by graduates (the business model that sees them pick up the entire headline cost of tuition).
A university educated cohort is a major pubic good in many ways & so the Govt. *should* take on a significant proportion (if not all) the cost(s)....
#politics #universities
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2026/may/27/tax-on-ambition-graduates-tell-all-to-student-loans-inquiry

2026-05-27 07:46:00 CEST

For many students the offer by Manchester University to offer (some form) of work experience to *all* is students will be welcome news at a time when experience is a key aspect of CV building in a difficult employment environment....
but, workers across Manchester may feel very differently with as an influx of around 30k (subsidised) temporary workers into the local economy.
If this doesn't cause some local problems I will be very surprised!
#workers #universities
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/may/26/manchester-university-to-offer-work-placements-to-all-undergraduates

2026-05-26 22:49:11 CEST

Yup, the state is contemptuous of normal people... (a theme of some recent posts here).
The team investigating the Post Office Horizon IT scandal is significantly under-resourced, leading its chief to suggest there will be further delays in bringing the perpetrators to justice - and lets not forget for some postmasters their exposure to Fujitsu's software was a fatal experience.
So once again justice by being delayed & so is being denied.
#Horizon #politics
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2422y4ldymo

2026-05-26 19:19:02 CEST

To no-one's surprise, given the (justified) uproar about the sentencing in the Hampshire juvenile rape trial are now to be officially reviewed....
Certainly the boys themselves may have their problems, but these cannot outweigh the life changing damage & harm done to the victims.
For the Rule of Law to work justice has to be seen to be done, and in this case the Judge came nowhere near....
#politics #RuleOfLaw
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2026/may/26/court-of-appeal-to-review-sentences-of-teenage-boys

2026-05-26 19:13:52 CEST

As its is announced that HS2 spent £65mn on consultants in 2025 to figure out it 'reset', the most expensive railway in the world has become a classic example of what is wrong with the UK.
Mangers don't know what they're doing so hire consultant who will say whatever they think will maximise their fee;
The idea of the public good is evacuated of meaning & is only measured using monetised cost-benefit analysis;
the political cycle destroys everything it touches.
#HS2 #politics
h/t FT

2026-05-26 10:40:27 CEST

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Yes, but for the EU, its only a relatively small issue, they have much bigger fish to fry

2026-05-26 09:17:04 CEST

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Indeed, great (and important) point - boosted!

2026-05-26 08:04:21 CEST

The parallel between social media & smoking is gaining traction due to:
the similarity of usage level to harm caused (albeit of different sorts);
the role of business groups in trying to undermine regulation;
the move to regulate use based on age.
But unlike cigarettes the age-regulation of social media brings with it much higher levels of surveillance (to prove age online) for the rest of the population.... and here the metaphor radically breaks down!
#SocialMedia
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y7r9gqp6jo

2026-05-26 07:51:02 CEST

RIP Sonny Rollins
For jazz fans a towering colossus of the saxophone, Rollins work spanned be-bop to fusion, with his distinctive sound always taking the lead.
Famous for practicing on Brooklyn Bridge & memorialising it in music as well as providing the soundtrack for Alfie (a landmark British film), Rollins was one of those musicians who was alway there, always playing & always interesting.
A genius has left the stage
#jazz #music

2026-05-26 07:38:21 CEST

Markets are premised on the idea of perfect information (in economic theories).... but are actually patterned by information asymmetries.
Sometimes these help customers who know more about their needs & priories than sellers, but increasingly (as in 'surveillance pricing') firms use AI & associated technologies to ascertain whether prospective (online) customers comparison shop regularly & then offer (variable) prices;
given 'surge pricing' is unpopular, will this be too?
#economics
h/t FT

2026-05-26 07:29:29 CEST

Jonathan Portes (KCL) is correct, a major priority for Govt, in the UK must be tax reform (we have the most complex tax code in the world, and it does us no real good).
we need to;
remove the tax advantages accruing to unearned income;
reform housing taxation & council tax to be more progressive;
remove a range of cliff-edges for medium to higher earners that are unjust;
to which I would add: simplify the whole code to remove the proliferating special allowances!
#tax #politics
h/t FT

2026-05-26 07:21:06 CEST

While the Tangerine Tyrant is 'demanding' that Iran 're-open' the Strait of Hormuz, it looks like the Iranians toll system is working to some extent with three ships (two LNG, one oil) passing through the Strait safely - one assumes having paid some sort of toll - over the weekend.
As this demonstrates, one result of the US/Israeli attacks on Iran may be to have turned the Straits into a naval turnpike.
Not the result we were told to expect, is it?
#StraitOfHormuz #Iran #politics
h/t FT

2026-05-26 07:16:04 CEST

As a policy its never really seems to work, but Rachel Reeves has joined a procession of past politicians declaring that we should Buy British.
A well managed Buy British public procurement policy can have good Keynesian multiplier effects, but without a stronger legislative & incentive structure such invocations are usually largely ineffective due to other (cost, capacity & technological) considerations.... it also requires a stronger & funded surrounding industrial policy!
#economics
h/t FT

2026-05-25 19:23:24 CEST

Good sense on benefits & work from Sam Tims (Joseph Rowntree Foundation):
'government should focus on the root causes of economic insecurity. These are the underlying economic failures that drive social security need – like the decent jobs that need to be created, the affordable homes we need & better health'....
Rather than continuing a broken economic incentives model (reducing benefits forces people into work), lets be clear on why they are out of work!
#politics
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2026/may/25/jobs-not-benefits-cut-welfare-bill-joseph-rowntree-foundation

2026-05-25 19:09:22 CEST

When the continuing negotiations produce something to look at, there is growing suspicion that by using their leverage over the Straits of Hormuz (and threats to US clients/allies around the Middle East), the Iranians may walk away with a pretty good deal (for the regime, that is), leaving the Tangerine Tyrant some vacuous claims to make but essentially a material loss.
If so, this will be yet one more marker of the geopolitical decline of the US; so much for the Art of the Deal, huh?
#Iran

2026-05-25 13:14:43 CEST

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Hmmm... I can see the self-interest in migration, but are you saying the receiving country gains no benefit (the data for the UK would argue otherwise)?

2026-05-25 10:34:53 CEST

The Bear sums up the great Right wing hypocrisy in their 'discussion' of migration - its not the issue of migration that's the underlying problem, its who the migrants are... and of course we knew this, but good to have ti so summarily laid out!
(one might also see this instructive on why right wing 'ex-pats' who voted for Brexit, then were surprised to discover the EU was no longer quite so welcoming to their residency preferences).
#migration #politics #brexit
https://www.bearlypolitics.co.uk/p/the-great-migration-fannywobble
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/634/286/338/774/147/original/466a745cb376b495.png

2026-05-25 08:04:26 CEST

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Agreed; as a user of community broadband (in which I am in investor of long-standing) & someone about to underwrite a micro-business locally for friends, my generation (with our pension post from professional careers) may end up being much more involved through personal networks in business investment than in the recent past

2026-05-25 07:59:07 CEST

Small & medium size enterprises develop of new jobs & innovation (as has been demonstrated by decades of research), so the news that UK-based banks are moving away from loans to SMEs (the proportion of lending to SMEs has halved in a decade) & where it continues is increasingly going to property-focussed firms, is yet more concerning news as regards the UK's ability to reinvigorate its economy.
But banks prefer the *easier* job of lending to big firms, of course
#banking #business
h/t FT

2026-05-24 19:27:45 CEST

If the figures are correct & various forms of tax evasion, money laundering & corruption account for around 10% of GDP, then the proposition that the financial sector does not have the best interests of the country as a priority would seem to be obvious.
Rather what we have is a sector that seeks to shape fiscal & economic policy but is also profiting from a range of international activities that bring the country into disrepute & are dangerous to the world.
#politics
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/may/24/dirty-money-through-uk-corruption-tax-evasion

2026-05-24 19:20:06 CEST

So, in a bid to deflect media attention from the £5m gift from a crypto-billionnaire that has been causing the Fascist Frog (or Clacton Conman if you prefer) some difficulty, he now claims that the payment only came to light because of the actions of Russian hackers who revealed the information to the media.
Has he in ay proof? well what do you think?
Does it matter? If he was really concerned about foreign meddling in UK politics he'd return the £17m to Harborne, now wouldn't he!
#politics

2026-05-24 10:38:04 CEST

Why do (some) people find ReformUK Ltd appealing?
Well, we might focus on the state's contempt of ordinary people, exhibited from the Grenfell fire, to the Post Office scandal, from Windrush to the infected blood scandal.
The Fascist Frog is a charlatan, but his appeal to ordinary people ('I'm like you') despite being demonstrably) false is key... and this is why Zack Polanski's videos have seen the Green Party of England & Wales' support rise.
People are fed up with the contempt!
#politics

2026-05-24 10:26:42 CEST

Meanwhile in the Straits of Hormuz, the Iranians have established a toll system that sees payment in Renminbi and/or in kind (in various forms), despite the bluster of the Tangerine Tyrant.
In the end the US/Israeli attacks on Iran, will likely have raised the costs to shipping in the area (to Iran's benefit) & also revealed the leverage control of the Straits' can give... although as other routes/methods are developed for shipping oil out of the region, such leverage may not last.
#politics

2026-05-24 09:08:18 CEST

The crisis in care for the elderly in one graph.
In the last ten years while the population of the over 75s has expanded (reflecting the slow if sometime halting rise in life expectancy & better medical outcomes for the elderly), so care beds per thousand of the population of over 75s has fallen.
If you're wondering why hospitals have difficulty discharging the elderly into care, this may not be the only factor, but its also hardly insignificant.
#health #NHS #politics
h/t Nuffield Trust
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/628/269/420/775/568/original/9aaae7ac5a8addaf.jpeg

2026-05-23 19:09:50 CEST

The Labour Party has presided over a rise in political prisoners in the UK (what else would you call people imprisoned for protesting about environmental issues or the situation in Gaza?).
When we wonder whether the Labour Party is the bulwark against the right that it still wants to present itself as, we might wonder how this differs from what a ReformUK Ltd Govt. might do?
And if you defend Labour as the better of two evils, then we really are lost!
#politics
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2026/may/23/anti-protest-sentences-rise-england-wales-political-prisoners

2026-05-23 19:03:37 CEST

One of the periodic issues in the retail fuel market is how prices 'go up like a rocket & come down like feather' in response to energy crises.
But, fuel companies likely make little (extra) profit as prices rise as they are under scrutiny & many consumers shop around for lower prices.... however, as prices come down more slowly, fuel suppliers are under less scrutiny & consumers less worried about prices, so this is when the super-profits are quietly made.
#politics
h/t Tim Hardford/FT

2026-05-23 13:49:19 CEST

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I think that's a fair point... although of course (looking back 15 years) the Lib Dems to have some form in facilitating the Right....

2026-05-23 13:10:06 CEST

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Yes, I agree; if I was a voter in Makersfield, I'd already be pretty annoyed that the local election was beg turned into a key element in the psychodrama around the Labour leadership. And I *do* wonder like you whether the progressive voters will sit on their hands.
Likewise I agree, that whatever the result it will be spun by much of the media as a 'win' for ReformUK Ltd.
Its going to get grim

2026-05-23 11:25:41 CEST

The bond market, or more accurately bond traders are often treated as oracles of the future impact of fiscal polices, so its worth noting that according to Lipper LESG data (quoted by Stuart Kirk/FT) over the last 20 years, around 80% of European Bond funds underperformed their market indices;
in other words, investing directly in bonds would have four times out of five led to higher returns than by using a bond market trader's aggregation fund.
So much for prescience!
#economics #BondMarkets

2026-05-23 10:41:26 CEST

How do we now that Wes Streeting is delusional?
Because he has implied in an interview with the Guardian that he can win over the left (in fairness their gloss on his remarks not what he actually said explicitly, although his discussion of policies led them to gloss it that way).
If he thinks he will be judged on his leadership contest pronounce, emts & not what many see as his disastrous period as Health Secretary, he is going to be a bit disappointed...
#politics
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/22/wes-streeting-insists-he-can-win-labour-leadership-race-despite-underdog-status

2026-05-23 09:48:59 CEST

For some time the UK's energy market has managed to balance security of supply with under-investment by trading (via interconnecters), but now the UK's often quite volatile energy (electricity) needs has led to disquiet among continental suppliers as the UK's sudden demands have had knock-on effects for European domestic energy systems.
Until the end of the year, the UK will reduce its use of such energy trading & seek to increase use gas-powered generation to smooth supply.
#energy
h/t FT

2026-05-23 09:14:51 CEST

More on the accelerating Ebola crisis in the DRC.
Without wishing to be alarmist (but accepting that it will sound that way) this is starting to remind me of the reports that were coming out of Wuhan in the January & February before we knew to call the health crisis about to engulf the world 'Covid'.
There's many way this may not come to pass, not least of all due to the lessons learnt during the pandemic six years ago, but nonetheless, I'm getting worried.
#ebola
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/23/ebola-virus-spread-drc-democratic-republic-of-congo

2026-05-22 13:05:00 CEST

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How depressing is that.....

2026-05-22 09:15:49 CEST

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Good luck with that....

2026-05-22 07:52:51 CEST

My problem with the argument that progressive voters & parties should get behind Andy Burnham to defeat ReformUK Ltd, is its just one more example of Labour's entitlement; their view that they remain the key opposition to the far right.
Rather, Labour has legitimised & normalised rightest views & policies, and has been antagonistic towards any notion of the development of a progressive alliance.
How much longer should/can we accept Labour's (now pretty clearly) empty promises?
#politics
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/616/657/445/059/732/original/58ab468457962104.png

2026-05-22 07:23:15 CEST

There seems to have been a major fall in net-migration into the UK over the last year but around half of voters think its still rising.
The news media have underplayed or ignored such reductions, but equally, given the data is estimated by the Office of National Statistics (whose reputation for accuracy has been severely damaged in the last years), media outlets may have a (half) plausible argument for discounting such figures.
The ONS' problems ripple outwards.
#migration #politics
h/t FT

2026-05-21 19:14:29 CEST

In 1990 UK billionaires had wealth equivalent to 4% of GDP, now they have wealth equivalent to 22% of GDP... and have hollowed out the UK's economy where the fruits of labours effort & innovation are captured by an elite who are getting richer & richer while the rest of us are trapped in an economy that fails to provide even a basic level of wellbeing & comfort for many.
The Labour Party no longer has an answer to this, if it ever did!
#inequality #politics #wealth
https://equalitytrust.org.uk/news/ghost-gdp-billionaire-britain-and-the-hollow-economy/

2026-05-21 18:34:47 CEST

Rachel Reeves has indicated she's going to clamp down on oil & energy firms international transfer pricing (used to move profits to low tax jurisdictions) to pay for a range of ameliorative measures to deal with the economic crisis caused by the US/Israeli attacks on Iran.
However, the OECD & UN have been working separately for years to find a way of constraining such profit shifting & as yet have largely failed.
Reeves may declare she can do this but it seems unlikely.
#politics
h/t FT

2026-05-21 08:02:40 CEST

The truism 'justice delayed is justice denied' is becoming an ever wider depiction of how the legal system works across England & Wales.
So news that workers & employers are waiting up to five years for an employment tribunal on claims for unfair dismissal is both no surprise & a confirmation of the shocking state of the legal system.
Respect for the rule of law depends on it efficacy in actually delivering judgements - no wonder its being lost!
#RuleOfLaw #politics
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp9pj2pk2j7o

2026-05-21 07:30:43 CEST

We know the rise of the Greens & ReformUK Ltd has shifted voters away from supporting the Labour Party. The Economist used these results to match the age & work profile of workers to map this transition between 2021 & 2026.
The diagram below offer a (further) stark demonstration of why the Labour Party is wrong-headed in their aping of ReformUK, not least because their support from such wider base is moving to the Green Party of England & Wales.
#politics #Greens
h/t Andy Cotgreave/LinkedIn
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/610/894/740/573/915/original/663f9987c579afb1.jpeg

2026-05-19 22:25:45 CEST

And as more questions emerge about the Fascist Frog's finances, he seems to have gone to ground, leading one to feel the necessity of yelling ar ReformUK ltd 'members' & supporters....
WHERE THE F**K IS NIGEL????
To which the answer might be that for once the publicity seeking Frog finds himself not wanting to seek out the media.
#politics #NigelFarage #ReformUK
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/19/nigel-farage-reform-uk-disappearance-politics

2026-05-19 19:41:09 CEST

Anyone who thinks the two stories related in the piece below about disabled people being marooned in hospital as their integrated home care package cannot be agreed, has nothing to do with budgeting is missing what is going on in the engineered crisis of the NHS & the care sector.
As always its vulnerable people who are trying to live their best lives (but needing support to do so) who are the target of spreadsheet wielding managers.
#disability #NHS #health
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2e2zvlyy38o

2026-05-19 19:16:40 CEST

(perhaps following the Scottish Nationalist Party's lead) the Treasury is suggesting a deal with supermarkets where in return for limiting, delaying or (perhaps even) scrapping a range of measures that the supermarkets say will add to their costs (from healthy food initiatives to new packaging policies), the supermarkets will cap the price of certain essentials to reduce the impact of inflation on the cost of living.
The supermarkets see this as undue interference....
#economics #food
h/t FT

2026-05-19 11:37:32 CEST

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Exactly, even I was taking my mostly final salary pension when I took early retirement, it was rolling up behind me for my younger colleagues.... they are all now on majority or completely DC pensions with the USS, thereby now covering all their own pension income risk

2026-05-19 08:12:21 CEST

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Quite the opposite; never a member & has worked hard over the years to diminish its ability to act against international crimes

2026-05-19 08:10:19 CEST

For Andrew Malkinson, whose life was ruined by (as finally proved) a wrongful conviction, the fight for compensation for this life changing damage continues.
It seems like the Inquiry into his wrongful conviction will find both Greater Manchester Police (first) and the Criminal Cases Review Commission (later) made crucial mistakes that caused him to lose 20 years of freedom, so his case for compensation should be strong.
But how do you compensate for that?
#politics
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c74r1x7dj8go

2026-05-19 08:03:38 CEST

Q. what should the Green Party of England & Wales do in the Makerfeld by-election?
Should they reign back to give Andy Burnham a better chance but demand action of electoral reform (perhaps)?
Should they fight the seat on the grounds they could win... and any 'splitting' of the Left vote is Labour's problem not their's?
There are no easy answers here, but the vey fact this *is* an issue, actually reflects the rising success of the GPEW!
#Makerfield #Greens #politics
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/18/greens-andy-burnham-makerfield-byelection-reform

2026-05-19 07:48:03 CEST

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But the Q.is whether that is the ICC's problem or it has been constrained but he US & other major power from doing its job?

2026-05-19 07:43:07 CEST

You'll not be surprised the Pension Commission has concluded that low & medium paid workers are not saving enough for a 'comfortable' retirement;
Its no use telling them about the consequences of not paying into pensions if they haven't enough money to make a choice in any case.
The push of workers into self-employment has also reduced pension saving as the self-employed seldom (now) have made pension provision(s).
Low pay & precarious work has a long shadow.
#pensions #politics
h/t FT

2026-05-19 07:33:29 CEST

I've said before that the NHS crisis is largely made up of a workforce planning problem - not enough staff attending patients.... but, now it seems that the NHS, under continuing budgetary pressures, plans to reduce recruitment & mobilise AI & associated technologies in treatment.
This is of course Wes Streeting's doing, so one can but hope that it is now recognised for the miss-step it is.
(The new plan is also focussed on staff retention which *is* welcome)
#NHS #health #politics
h/t FT

2026-05-19 07:19:46 CEST

If you wanted an indication of why the world needs the International Criminal Court, it now seems that while in Beijing the Tangerine Tyrant suggested to Xi Jinping might help coordinate a joint move against the ICC with Russia, with the TT claiming that it was in all three leaders' interest to see the Court neutered.
The ICC may not be perfect but if Trump, Xi & Putin all think its dangerous then we might conclude its doing something right?
#ICC #politics #InternationalLaw
h/t FT

2026-05-19 07:14:49 CEST

It now seems that in the last couple of years international university student registrations in the USA have declined by 20%....
Given that UK universities have been forced into a business model that emphasises the recruitment of foreign students this would have been a great opportunity..... but, of course, the Govt. is also doing its best to dissuade foreign students from coming to the UK, thereby undermining the very business model universities have been pushed into.
#universities #politics

2026-05-18 23:17:44 CEST

Hmmm.... so now Andy Burnham is saying he will keep with Rachel Reeves (revised) fiscal rules *and* end austerity.
Looks like we've swiftly returned to having your cake and eating it territory unless he has a clever trick up his sleeve?
Well, I guess now we wait for the detail(s).....
#politics

2026-05-18 19:30:26 CEST

'A lot of working-class people, they don’t want a lot', says Martin a former miner. 'They want enough to get by & to have nicer things in life. To go on holiday & to have good food and things like that. They are not bothered about yachts and aeroplanes... They are just happy enough to get through in life with a job, a secure job to pay the mortgage & to look after their family'
And the problem is the UK *doesn't* achieve even that for many!
#inequality #politics
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/may/18/reform-voters-progressive-post-industrial-northern-england

2026-05-18 19:14:42 CEST

The UK Treasury is planning to relax ring-fencing rules for the largest banks, allowing a 10% transfer from ring-fenced (retail) deposits into other operations *provided* these funds are used to support the 'real economy';
you can bet that Bankers will be seeking a highly permissive definition of the 'real economy'.
Whether you think this might be a problem (the relaxed ring fence that, is) depends on whether you think bankers have changed their character since 2008....
#economics
h/t FT

2026-05-18 10:59:08 CEST

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Well, I always work on the assumption that 'normal' profits are around 8-12% & anything higher starts to be an issue for attention (most in the UK the operation of oligopolies)... and of course in gas for instance, much of he profitability is shifted around by transfer pricing to Centrica, to make BG look normally profitable.... so there are a lot of moving parts here, and the response to the Q.s is just one interesting aspect of how voters understand what profit is (or isn't)

2026-05-18 09:59:40 CEST

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That's a fair Q.; although actually that sort of profit shifting (tax planning) is largely the preserve of large MNCs, not the bulk of firms in the UK

2026-05-17 20:26:55 CEST

Whatever you think about the levels of profitability in the UK's economy, one thing is clear voters are vastly over-estimating how much firms make in profits.... but perhaps most telling (in this misunderstanding of what is going on) is the apparent perception that the NHS makes a profit (although there is a chance respondents didn't properly understand the Q.?).
(And of course this was carried out by the right wing Inst. for Economic Affairs, no doubt to prove a point!)
#economics #business
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/591/318/023/277/570/original/8aa16f671765fac5.png

2026-05-17 12:24:50 CEST

Here are The Bear's musings on Saturday's Unite the Kingdom rally, in which he suggests it was all a bit sad (a damp squib), perhaps not quite the nationalistic uprising promised by Stephen Yaxley-Lennon & his associates....
the Bear suggests:
'The whole rally felt less like a protest & more like a networking event themed around “How to be Racist Online and Earn Money!'
So, does the Americanisation of the Far Right preface its failure or its renewal?
#politics
https://www.bearlypolitics.co.uk/p/the-far-right-has-become-a-bit-sad

2026-05-17 10:45:38 CEST

When Yvette Cooper rejected legal advice & wrote a column criticising Palestine Action, while activists were being tried, did she (as the defence alleged) interfere with the judicial process making a fair trial more difficult or as the Judge concluded only risk 'causing some prejudice to these proceedings, but that is different from deliberately flouting a reporting restriction order'?
I think the defence was right; it was an attempt to prejudice the trial!
#politics
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/may/17/yvette-cooper-palestine-action-article-despite-cps-warning-trial

2026-05-16 10:38:14 CEST

And so we now have a Govt. defying the will of Parliament by denying access to key documents in the case of Peter Mandelson's (shall we say) mishandled vetting for his role in Washington.
While this may seem a technical issue around one (albeit quite consequential) political development, actually it demonstrates once again, how little interest those at the centre of the Labour Part actually have in democracy!
#politics
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/15/peter-mandelson-vetting-file-withheld-isc

2026-05-16 10:05:57 CEST

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I agree up to a point; but while distribution is clearly an issue, if we look at GDP per capita (which doesn't factor in distribution, as many complain), we are down in the mid-20s (and slowly falling) rather than being the sixth (or seventh) largest economy in the world, which is how those using absolute GDP data present it.... better distribution might help the immediate issues of social depravation, but would not change the ongoing situation that I presented in the post

2026-05-16 09:37:41 CEST

As predicted, Keir Starmer's position has weakened sufficiently & the resulting intra-party political calculations have shifted so that Labour's NEC having only three months ago blocked Andy Burnham from standing in a by-election for Labour, have now voted through his candidacy to confirmed through a swift (and likely unopposed) candidate selection during next week.
Now the Q. is: will have actually win the by-election? Or will the Greens (or perhaps ReformUK Ltd) steal it?
#politics
h/t FT

2026-05-16 09:18:50 CEST

Well, well, well, as the Tangerine Tyrant has stoked volatility in financial markets through his 'policies' and actions, regulatory filings in the US indicate that the volume of market trades on his behalf have expanded considerably (to take advantage of the volatility one must presume);
given other signs of extensive insider trading from the administration & its associates, we might best take the Trump Org.'s statement (quoted by the FT) about these trades with a pinch of salt!
#USPol
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/583/028/483/835/398/original/a8f127bf276baa06.png

2026-05-15 07:36:49 CEST

The BBC is reporting that many hotels in the USA are not seeing the demand for rooms during the FIFA World Cup that they expected, citing the political environment, rising costs associated with the conflict in the Middle East & transport costs.... but what is missing from this report is the rise in hotel prices associated with the World Cup that was reported earlier this year.
This looks like basic economics; hotels put up their prices, demand fell!
#football
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0p2532xn4o

2026-05-15 07:24:33 CEST

How much do the wealthy value privacy & avoiding taxes?
Well one way of measuring that is the surge in the use of unlimited companies in the UK (that is legal vehicles that allow privacy & reduced scrutiny, but also shed the protection of limited liability).... so there are some wealthy people who would rather risk massive (unlimited) losses of their capital than pay taxes or be open about their economic affairs.
To an outsider, the risks seem to be greater than the gains?
#politics
h/t FT

2026-05-15 07:18:02 CEST

Nearer to (his) home, the Tangerine Tyrant has renewed his interest in 'transformation' in Cuba; the CIA director was in Havana yesterday to demand 'fundamental changes' to the regime & the economy of the island.
Given the original driver for the Cuban Revolution was the plight of the island's economy when run for the benefit of US corporations & the mafia, it would be a sad winding back of the clock if the island once again became beholden to a bunch of grifters.
#cuba #politics
h/t FT

2026-05-15 07:05:41 CEST

I see Cranfield University is 'merging' with Kings College London, with a very positive spin about positive synergies being served up by the BBC....
However, I cannot but under whether this is actually a defensive move (on behalf of Cranfield) for some (here) unspecified economic/budgetary reason - given the current travails of the university sector.
Would be interested in any insider views on the 'merger'.
#universities #education #science
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnvp7gpygq4o

2026-05-14 19:27:07 CEST

The care system is broken & only continues to run in any way at all because of unpaid carers.... they (we) need to be better supported, better funded & resourced, and perhaps most importantly respected fro what we do not treated like criminals by the DWP.
Louise Casey may well recognise all this, but its hardly new; what is actually needed urgently is a strategy for a positive change across the many dimensions of care.
#care #politics
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/may/14/millions-of-unpaid-uk-carers-living-in-agony-says-louise-casey

2026-05-14 13:32:28 CEST

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Yes, term limits seem to me to be a good way of limiting the corruption.... however the issue of salaries is almost the opposite; too low pay means they are amenable to 'other payments' because in the elite in which they mix, they feel themselves to be poor - rather higher salaries bit no second jobs or other income would be a better option - pay them well, but don't allow them (for their limited terms) any other income

2026-05-14 09:41:00 CEST

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Yes the amateurism of British politics has long been evident

2026-05-14 08:05:36 CEST

John Kampfner, suggests politicians fail to really deal with problems because:
'They worry about the markets (with reason); they fret about conventional media & social media (with less reason). They wait for bad things to happen, trying to anticipate what their critics might say of them in case they put a foot out of line. It’s a self-fulfilling spiral'!
There's more to it than this, but this seem to capture an important aspect of our political problem(s)!
#politics
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/may/14/europe-big-problems-japan-taiwan-care-systems