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Last Notes

2025-01-13 21:33:43 CET

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Translation: O'Leary's got some stranded assets on one side of the border and thinks that an economic union will let him rescue them without taking a bath on exchange rates.

2025-01-08 21:50:27 CET

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"the MPs Global News spoke to" hmmm so that would be Wayne Long, Anthony Housefather, and Wayne Long in a set of dollar store spy glasses?

2025-01-08 18:22:36 CET

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Freeland said as much in her resignation letter! She declared that the disagreement between her and Trudeau was because she wanted a hard pivot to crushing austerity and didn't like penciling in payments to settle reconciliation claims.
And a bunch of NDP-aligned leftists cheered for her because girlboss or something.
Austerity faction Liberals have been pushing hard to seize control for a while now.

2025-01-07 15:15:21 CET

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I think this overlooks that there's clearly been factional tensions within the party for some time, particularly around foreign and fiscal policy. Freeland as deputy PM / finance minister was a compromise for the deficit hawks, but that's been getting less "compromise" and more "we do it my way".
Remember last fall, when there were rumors circling of *massive* defense cuts, and Blair had to go public with his opposition to them?

2024-12-16 17:47:15 CET

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Assuming it's not all kayfabe, Freeland's letter lays out very clearly her split with the PM: she wants a balanced budget, compromises on social justice and civil rights, a dead air messaging strategy, and to fight Trump by submitting to capital and investment interests.
The gimmicks indeed might work. Freeland's strategy won't. It's Paul Martin 2.0.

2024-12-16 17:06:52 CET

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it's very interesting that she emphasized a low-advertising, low-comms, "do good things and let voters recognize them" politics approach as we close in on the end of the first quarter under their new campaign leadership, who have been launching a more aggressive advertising strategy.
Very interesting.

2024-12-16 16:40:05 CET

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because Paul Martin was so successful. Let's do Paul Martin Round 2: this time with more austerity and an even nastier US President!
And the stuff about "Canadians will recognize and respect our approach" - that's an interesting thing to include in a letter like this. I'm curious, why do you think that's there?

2024-12-16 16:31:19 CET

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There's not much reading in necessary, Freeland spells out her motivations clearly in her letter:
- "Fight for capital and investment"
- Work in good faith and humility with the [conservative] Premiers of the provinces
- Keep our fiscal powder dry
- Manage our spending
I'm astonished by how many Canadian progressives are unable to recognize a demand for harsh, brutal austerity if it's delivered by a woman.

2024-12-02 21:43:42 CET

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I'm comparing with them because I'm most familiar with them, *and* they're quite different. I believe most Commonwealth countries have "private club" parties similar to Canada, don't they? With the distinction that our parties are mostly governed by paid members, while most in Commonwealth countries they're governed by elected members.

2024-12-02 21:12:58 CET

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I disagree a BIT; I think approach parties as private clubs that can set their own rules is WAY healthier than the pseudo-public-but-not-really approach of US parties.
I agree that a lot of the ways our parties have shifted their procedures are warning signs for democratic health.

2024-12-02 20:18:44 CET

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it's absolutely not in any way credible, and I really feel like the CPC is getting increasingly desperate here. They've gone from clever and sneering to incoherent sputtering.

2024-11-09 19:57:48 CET

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also to give Trump an audience other than Zelensky to perform for, to keep him on message and on target. And to make sure there was someone who could step in if he started freelancing.
The people who got Trump back in office clearly do not trust him one bit.

2024-11-02 17:38:45 CET

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of course it would! Is anyone seriously arguing that the security services can overrule political leadership?!?

2024-11-02 13:15:54 CET

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okay angus Reid is especially hallucinating Jesus in the browning on his toast.
SciAm has a great piece on how polling these days is almost entirely weighting because of low response rates: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-election-polling-has-become-less-reliable/
And even it kind of skims past how, eg, the US Presidential polling miss in 2016 was a *weighting miss*.

2024-11-02 01:10:33 CET

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they’re seeing Jesus in their browned toast, demonic messages in the record played backwards. We’re built for hunting patterns, and these polling brain geniuses are taking their survey results and slamming filters and weights on them until a consistent narrative comes out.

2024-11-01 23:10:27 CET

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we just had a 10% polling miss one way in SK, a 5% the other way in NB, and fucking Nate Cohn outright admitted today to stacking his polls for Trump because he doesn’t believe any results he gets showing a Harris lead. (Ping me on Bluesky, I’ll forward the posts)
The polls are cooked. Unfortunately this means we’re left with no knowledge whatsoever.

2024-11-01 18:10:51 CET

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And he had those numbers in mind after coming out of what I'm sure was a tense meeting! The OLP *missed* in 2023, they had a superstar in the making on their hands.

2024-11-01 17:19:50 CET

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It's a great piece, and Max does an amazing job of arguing it. I think there's even a few more scenarios that would improve matters for both youth and old folks. I know Nate Erskine-Smith made similar points *from memory* at his impromptu post-coup attempt presser.

2024-10-29 21:31:07 CET

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after lighting a bunch of money on fire and burning a ton of favors to precisely zero effect David Parker is feeling like he needs to assert his masculinity. I fully expect him to coup Smith just to show he can do it.

2024-10-29 00:33:15 CET

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yeah 47/2 will be a tricky balancing act for the greens but if they’re smart I think they can get a lot for their support. I think they’d have an easier time at 46/2 since they’d have the big no confidence stick but…

2024-10-28 22:51:01 CET

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back up to 18 per cbc tracker. I’d love to know demographics for mail vs in person vs absentee.
47 NDP / 2 green is a weird number for balance of power; 46 NDP / 2 green is almost better for a functional power sharing arrangement. 47 means the NDP basically has to nominate a speaker from their own ranks which leaves them a vote short for passing legislation but immune to no confidence.
On the other hand 47/2 means David Parker eats dirt so I am rooting for it.

2024-10-28 20:57:04 CET

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Updated 22m ago: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-elxn-oct-28-1.7365413
NDP lead in JdF-M: 114
In Surrey Center: called (NDP win)
*NDP lead* in Surrey-Guildford: 14 votes

2024-10-28 01:38:04 CET

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in the interest of getting the latest info in thread as this just got boosted into my feed:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-election-counting-oct-26-1.7364860
Current NDP lead in JdF-M: 113
In Surrey Center: 178
Current BCC lead in Surrey-Guildford: 12
All districts still need absentee ballots counted; recounts are based on final count after absentee count.

2024-10-24 18:06:20 CEST

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yeah that's what I'm getting at here. Whatever the motivations of the original letter-signers, they let their effort get hijacked by Ken McDonald and his gang of oil-guzzling bomb-throwers, who promptly made a media circus of the whole thing.

2024-10-24 17:16:27 CEST

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I'll add that if they wanted more input, they shouldn't have let their effort be hijacked and turned into a media circus by Those Guys. While things were private and in-caucus, sure, whatever. The instant Anonymous MPs started signing and then running to brag to CBC, they should've pulled the plug and found a better strategy.

2024-10-24 17:03:44 CEST

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And yet he signed on to an effort being lead by Wayne Long, Ken McDonald, and Sean Casey. Very much a "are you sure you want to sit down at the table with those people?" situation.
I'd be more charitable to their demands for more input if they were demanding *input*. Instead they're demanding they be given control over who's in the driver's seat. It feels more like complaining about being asked to do *work* than wanting to participate.

2024-10-24 16:12:46 CEST

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even the caucus rebellion shit (which appears to have fluffed out at ... between 16 and 25 rebels, depending on who you believe) seems to have been the same surly austerian/anti-woke/warmonger crowd as usual.
*Who* replaces Trudeau is incredibly important. Handing power back to the Martin wing of the LPC would be a disaster.
Good op-ed on this subject that might still be free: https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/trudeau-has-made-mistakes-but-here-are-the-reasons-canada-still-needs-him/article_f52c474a-914c-11ef-9a44-074d4258e435.html

2024-10-24 14:41:02 CEST

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My "please ignore that my completely organic opinion about the Liberals, which is based on things my friends and family say and not at all influenced by mass media, is identical to the material pushed by a massive oil industry propaganda campaign" t-shirt is prompting many questions answered by my t-shirt. 🧐

2024-10-24 13:24:02 CEST

I lived in California for 15 years. Regularly got asked “oh you’ve got a very strong accent, where are you from?” (the Maritimes, eh) followed by friendly “enjoying the weather then?” etc.
The *same people* would casually talk about how we needed to get rid of all the immigrants coming here from other countries, taking jobs and driving up land prices. And this was a liberal part of the state.
From: @npub1eak…ha4p
https://fediscience.org/@steve/113360114050519625

2024-10-23 00:52:33 CEST

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hey a 72% chance that the greens provide a supply & confidence for a BCC minority sounds about right! 🤪

2024-10-21 13:45:57 CEST

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oh my god who’s the byline on that I’ve got to know

2024-10-20 21:53:04 CEST

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I would call that slightly inaccurate. Anna Kindy won, but some two thousand Green Party supporters spoiled their ballots to give her the win, rather than voting strategically to avoid a worst-case outcome.
It’s sad if they thought they were making a statement, because it’s one no one will ever hear.

2024-10-20 02:52:19 CEST

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I’m a long time Miles Vorkosigan fan, my eyes were opened to the collective hallucination early 😇

2024-10-20 02:32:54 CEST

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for sure! But like where can he throw his weight around vs where does he have to play ball, where are the provinces dependent on the Feds or vice versa… If you’re not deep in it all sounds made up.

2024-10-20 00:43:42 CEST

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it’s complicated; I don’t know if I could give a correct rundown of what’s federal and provincial and shared responsibility. And also our political news media is full of confident lies.

2024-10-20 00:30:30 CEST

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I try to reflect on myself as an undergrad - I thought I was pretty plugged in to news, as I knew more than any of my friends around me, but I was really pretty fucking naive! I didn’t get the real Martin succession story, I didn’t follow municipal or provincial politics at ALL.
But I could name the PM and my MP and some cabinet ministers, and talk world affairs, and most of my friends couldn’t do that.

2024-10-20 00:03:34 CEST

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aha! Okay that actually makes me feel better 🤣 I’ve seen a couple of US campaigns including the Sanders 2020 primary go totally sideways because they had bad list hygiene.
Fingers crossed for a Mean Green Election Machine turning out the people it needed to there!

2024-10-19 23:54:29 CEST

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concerning that the BCNDP(edit: or sorry more likely BCGreens?) had these folks on their list; you’d think that they would have better hygiene to avoid turning out their opponents’ votes.
Also: bad information environment! People are confused and filling in the blanks with junk, and think they’re informed! And algorithmic social media makes this worse, by putting mass media messaging into the mouths of friends and family.

2024-10-18 14:12:48 CEST

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really makes me wonder if there's a link between this and the Liberal caucus coup attempt.

2024-10-15 16:25:41 CEST

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lol lmao what that's even more absurd and more out there than i predicted. I'm going to have to recalibrate.

2024-10-14 15:28:25 CEST

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I’m convinced that half the skepticism towards the idea of strategic voting in Canada comes from leaders acting like this, deliberately invoking it incorrectly to try to throw ridings to the opposition.
It’s bad calculus but there’s clearly a bunch of political strategists who push this same plan.

2024-10-06 18:46:44 CEST

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oh of course it’s Angus Reid doing fucking residential school denialism. That’s just the cherry on top of the shit sundae.

2024-10-06 17:34:21 CEST

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“but he deleted it and asked that everyone forget he posted it”
Sure, but that’s worse, right? You get why that’s WORSE right? Like one of our main national pollsters’ media diets being so saturated with lies and conspiracy theories that he can’t tell that a fake story about *the Prime Minister* is fake should be a big story. He should not be allowed to memory hole it.

2024-10-04 13:20:11 CEST

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Canadians need to work out what we’re going to do about our media being saturated with “polls” that are nothing more than carefully massaged sciencism propaganda from lobbyists & image management PR companies.

2024-10-01 21:51:39 CEST

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people want to believe very badly that we can understand and measure and know real things about the world.

2024-09-25 19:32:05 CEST

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I'm quickly becoming Gould-pilled. She's been lighting it up on civil rights issues lately.

2024-09-24 03:47:00 CEST

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well his supporters know that’s fake; they know full well he opposes measles vaccines, and flu, and whooping cough, just as much as he opposes COVID vaccination.
He’s betting the news media will play dumb and go along with his blatant lie and that’s good odds.

2024-09-20 01:16:58 CEST

I saw a post here talking about the carbon price as “one of the few good things the Trudeau gov’t has done”. So off the top of my head, here’s some accomplishments of the Trudeau gov’t.
- added gender identity protections to the human rights act 🏳️‍🌈
- heat pump and EV incentives
- Canada dental plan, enabling over 500K Canadians to get needed treatment
- $10/day daycare
- national school lunch program
- Canada Child Benefit
- conversion therapy ban 🏳️‍🌈

2024-09-19 00:38:39 CEST

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because they’re conservative fascists who like Pierre Poilievre and want to help him win.

2024-09-16 23:54:14 CEST

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I don’t think he’s threatening Alison. But yeah no accident he’s setting up for a suit in the UK.

2024-09-12 17:42:14 CEST

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Isn't the National Post deep in debt that they're struggling to service? Maybe someone should look at where *they* keep getting money from.

2024-09-12 17:04:40 CEST

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Finished the article; I think Horgan is a bit too harsh on the prospects of Trudeau adopting a refreshed online persona. His team's copying Harris a bit too closely right now, but their fundraising emails are starting to lean towards crisp, professional, and contemptuous of showboating nonsense.
I think that's a good image for selling Canadians on the not insubstantial achievements of the Trudeau gov't, and their potential for more robust progress.

2024-09-06 01:28:18 CEST

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even with all that this move could’ve been worthwhile if Singh had come out with a good reason - some policies that the Liberals refused to accept in the agreement that he now wants.
He didn’t. His announcement email was low grade fluff and posturing, and he didn’t even get the list of things passed out of the agreement right!
So yeah the whole thing comes off as clout farming. The NDP has 0% chance of winning the next election or beating the CPC & this doesn’t help.

2024-09-06 01:20:29 CEST

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breaking it - when the other side is holding up their end of the deal - is a panicky and desperate move. And if anything the NDP is in a worse place than the Liberals if an election were called tomorrow. There’s some elements of their polling that are marginally better, but lol polling.
And they’re still in debt from the 2021 campaign. Their party volunteers are engaged with provincial elections in BC and Saskatchewan.
So the NDP’s negotiating posture is weak.

2024-09-04 21:33:20 CEST

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Never mind that the NDP's been aggressively backing "age verification" bills, which are conservative censorship wet dreams. Do you like Mastercard's prudish online content policies?
Good news, now Mastercard decides who gets to know how old you are, and anyone who lets you see *anything* without checking that has committed a felony!

2024-09-04 20:33:30 CEST

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of course the one who actually comes out of this looking weak and selfish is Jagmeet Singh. He's just validated every attack ad Poilievre will run against him: untrustworthy, self-interested, flaky. And he's been talking up a CPC gov't as inevitable.

2024-09-03 21:01:27 CEST

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ah, the delightful agricultural self-sufficiency version of the "globalists" dog whistle. Chances of this being correctly identified as antisemitism - 0%.
There are good reasons to value local food production. The formulation Rustad uses does not invoke any of them.

2024-09-02 17:41:27 CEST

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I for one am shocked, shocked to discover more of these statistical projection guys are actually hard right chuds.
Hmm funny how the totally neutral statistical projection keeps coming up “hard right win, everyone else stay home and don’t bother”… 🤔🤔🤔