_Checkmatey_
_Checkɱate 🔑⚡🌋☢️🛢️

Helping navigate #Bitcoin's volatility
Newsletter checkonchain.com
Onchain Analyst _checkonchain
Charting Suite charts.checkonchain.com

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Last Notes

2026-02-10 05:07:51 UTC

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Congrats Lyn!

2025-11-25 23:53:14 UTC

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I saw the whole 100k sats move the other day. Nice stack! 😜

2025-11-21 12:56:29 UTC

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Already live.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/catching-knives-market-and-macro

2025-11-21 11:47:53 UTC

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https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/catching-knives-market-and-macro?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2swa18

2025-11-19 12:02:18 UTC

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You're going to lose people with that approach. By saying the money people literally use day to day isn't, but your internet funny money is, you've lost the audience.
This is why Austrian economics never takes off. People who pitch it ALWAYS lose the audience in the conversation.
I understand you, most people won't hear it.

2025-11-17 08:01:07 UTC

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You're separating MoE and SoV/UoA in this distinction. Which is by the way what id happening, the savings asset function of bonds (dollars with yeild) is being replaced by gold and Bitcoin.
Currencies are gov issuee monies which have shit SoV properties. Money is still the parent umbrella.

2025-11-17 07:54:29 UTC

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Apprexisted, and apology accepted. What's your X handle?

2025-11-17 07:37:40 UTC

The Bulls Last Stand.
My latest analysis piece is out for Checkonchain subscribers assessing c onditions at the critical $95k level.
It's do or die now folks.
https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/the-bulls-last-stand

2025-11-17 02:38:11 UTC

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The dollar is money, and it's just intellectually dishonest to say otherwise.
I don't think I've ever said Bitcoin is just an investment to make dollars with, what I would have said is 'the vast majority of people do in fact believe that'. As evidenced by their behaviours, of selling in bull markets.
Your mistake is actually thinking I am expressing my ideological view, but instead I am simply pointing out the objective facts about how the market operates.
You will find that people like you and I, that see bitcoin as money and fiat as trash, are the smallest minority of people. Most people have no fucking clue, and are indeed fiat maximisers.
Not the world we want, hut the world we live in.

2025-11-16 13:54:14 UTC

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Only if you explain why you're being so difficult? You were pestering Anja with these silly questions about me 'being short' too, and I want to understand what your problem is?

2025-11-15 22:44:37 UTC

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Insiders got paid.

2025-11-15 20:15:38 UTC

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No mate, just pointing out some realities as i see them.
Which is what analysis is the process of doing.

2025-11-15 17:11:47 UTC

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It totally disappeared.
If you buy a stock at $100 and the next day it opens at $10, you've destroyed 90% of your value
The guy who sold you the expensive stock was eitheran insider getting paid, or an original owner of whatever the business model was before bitcoiners took over management

2025-11-15 08:03:20 UTC

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I never short, I just stay humble and stack sats man.
I analyse the market because I love solving the puzzle. Trading is for the 0.01% who can to it.

2025-11-15 08:01:33 UTC

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I was offered a 'Head of Bitcoin strategy' role at 5 treasury companies.
I said no to all of them, without asking anything about the package. Not interested, I love my job as it is.

2025-11-15 08:00:02 UTC

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I would have said it would be highly unlikely that the ETFs were unbacked, and not hold the coins.
I still hold that view.

2025-11-15 06:51:54 UTC

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Well there was always going to be leakage as management has to get paid (and healthily I may add).
A lot also never actually bought BTC outside pipe deals to insiders, and a bunch ran these scammy BTC converts with whales (whale can retract their BTC if the stock price doesn't moon).
Question marks at every corner.

2025-11-15 06:49:46 UTC

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This.

2025-11-15 06:29:30 UTC

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Spend an hour looking through how many TCos actually bought Bitcoin outside PIPE deals by insiders, or questionable convert deals with whales who have the right to call their Bitcoin back if the stock doesn't appreciate.
There is so much fagazi below the covers.

2025-11-15 04:07:34 UTC

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I ran the numbers. Theres about 3 months since launch could you have bought, and been better off that your original CAPEX today, especially once you factor in taxes.

2025-11-15 03:54:11 UTC

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Essential reading.

2025-11-15 03:52:37 UTC

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Just look at trade volumes, orders of magnitude higher at the tops.
Half the industry works for these firms now, everyone became a stock promoter, and sentiment followed TCo stocks much more than the corn price. Every podcast was about TCos for most of this year. Sucked in huge volumes of retail capital (who are the target audience)

2025-11-15 03:34:40 UTC

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Nonsense.

2025-11-15 03:34:14 UTC

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All of the above.
But TCos affect the demand, which would otherwise offset the sold supply to an extent.

2025-11-15 03:33:36 UTC

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Most likely 85k tbh, where that tariff tantrum chopped around.
ETF Inflow cost basis is 83k, and my estimated avg onchain cost basis is 82k. Very nice confluence, and imho, the zone for the 'bear market floor'

2025-11-15 03:13:43 UTC

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One of the notable reasons 2025 underperformed is a lot of Bitcoin capital was coaxed into buying expensive Treasury company stocks, which then proceeded to decline by 90% or more, incinerating value.
The firms didn't buy BTC volumes anywhere close to the amount investors gave them.
Stay humble, stack sats, is the wisest meme in Bitcoin, and it comes from the experience of Bitcoiners who have already learned this lesson.
The new shinny thing is there to take your Bitcoin. Everybody is a scammer. The solution, is to stay humble, and stack sats.
The promoters will return.
Ignore them, they want your bitcoin.
Stay humble, stack sats, and focus on your craft and family instead.
#nevent1q…jcfx

2025-11-14 05:13:47 UTC

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Go for a walk mate, get some fresh air.

2025-11-14 05:03:31 UTC

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Yep, it's totally over, see you in 2030

2025-11-14 04:48:36 UTC

Stay humble, and stack sats.
https://blossom.primal.net/87543569ca97ba4efa7810eaab8018c721d8d1f121d9a5b524f0598e46a214d5.jpg

2025-11-14 02:34:36 UTC

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To be fair, I've been writing about chopsolidstion as the base case since May 2024.

2025-11-12 19:35:28 UTC

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I think AI is making shit up there in my opinion.
That enters the world of chart patterns and TA, but do I don't believe you can derive price targets from the chop range.

2025-11-11 19:51:23 UTC

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Could you please reframe your question a bit?
Are you talking about the relationship between consolidations and the trends that follow? If so, yes, this is where 'chop'solidation gets its name. From the Choppiness Index.

2025-11-05 11:10:01 UTC

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Price has nothing to do with core v30. Nobody actually cares about this opreturn debate, it's the biggest battle of the nerds on the internet. Completely irrelevant to the price.

2025-11-04 12:43:51 UTC

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Old ancient coins are not moving. Most of the sellside pressure comes from this cycle and last cycle holders.
It's not from coins being attacked and stolen.

2025-11-03 19:14:16 UTC

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I have long said that whoever strategy pays to execute their buys, should be fired. They always get terrible fills well above market. Either the company is paying way too much premium as a fee, or their trade executors are really bad at their job.
It's not manipulated, that's the cope answer.

2025-11-01 05:34:17 UTC

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You don't need a thesis based in manipulation.
$2.5Billion per day coming back to market by existing holders. It's just a reality.
https://blossom.primal.net/abe6da04f9ec0509aa2c6adb64096118b4bcbac9e4ff73f2d3245ae96d218b39.png

2025-10-29 12:31:18 UTC

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Obvious once you see it.

2025-09-10 05:30:39 UTC

Welcomed a new Bitcoiner into the world on blockheight 913,569.
Actual magic.

2025-09-03 04:05:50 UTC

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Yes, TimechainIndex has been tracking them

2025-09-03 04:05:25 UTC

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Riding the now, no plans to add to the position.

2025-09-02 07:42:17 UTC

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I'm primarily on Substack tbh, I only use X to shitpost, but moreso to see non Bitcoin market analysis.
Im on Nostr too, I just don't have the time to maintain an active presence (work effort goes into my substack posts)

2025-08-12 00:13:48 UTC

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Combined with having Luke Gromen on to talk gold, we're seeing the conversation about 'what is money' entering public conciousness.
It's certainly not good for the value of fiat.
Man behind the curtain, once seen...can't be unseen.

2025-08-12 00:11:28 UTC

If you have been in Bitcoin for a cycle or more before today, you have experienced a once in a lifetime event.
You built the conviction to hold an asset which the entire world told you was destined for nothing. Literally everyone said you were wrong, at scale.
That character building dynamic, is no longer the case. Wall Street, government policy, and even the media is at minimum less negative, but mostly now positive.
Building conviction in Bitcoin now is easy, folks just pass off responsibility to their money manager.
If you stood the hardcore test of building, forming, challenging, and reshaping your conviction over years, amidst the most hostile social environment against Bitcoin we will probably ever see, well done.
Yes the asset is awesome.
But the lessons you learned, and the trust you now have in your own decisions and ability to reason, cannot be replicated.
You lived a once in a lifetime experience.
Put it to work in your life, and make it better.

2025-03-04 20:36:24 UTC

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Always have a great conversation with Pascal.
We covered the chaotic selloff in Bitcoin, as well as how I think about market structure during volatile periods.
#note1dj4…w8ta

2025-02-12 12:07:57 UTC

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in that instance, there is no issue because the smaller pools will pick up the transactions the larger ones are censoring.

2025-02-11 23:21:31 UTC

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Same.

2025-02-11 23:17:22 UTC

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the attack that matters in bitcoin is censorship. The physical and capital costs of a sustained reorg is infeasible, even for nation States.
The real risk is censorship, and if hostile miners do not mine transactions, they don't collect the fees.
if the attack is mining transactions to collect fees, they are not hostile, because that is what miners do.

2025-02-11 18:53:38 UTC

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the block subsidy isn't what secures bitcoin, the fees are. Attackers get the subsidy too.

2025-02-11 18:51:55 UTC

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I did mate, its for subscribers as noted.

2025-02-11 11:54:17 UTC

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I have three Bitaxes on my desk.
Not because I ever expect to win a block.
I own them to support the folks developing and building out the open source alternatives to the incumbents
Its insignificant today.
But it may not be tomorrow.
#note17gh…3qe6

2025-02-11 06:24:51 UTC

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the long overdue extinction event.
The Scambrian explosion may have run its course.

2025-02-11 06:14:12 UTC

Once in every Bitcoin cycle, folks emerge with a thousand reason why the declining block subsidy will lead to the eventual death of the 🌽
In my latest piece for _checkonchain subscribers, I lay out my thoughts around the long-term viability of Bitcoins PoW security system.
https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/securing-the-bag-my-take-on-bitcoins

2025-02-11 02:15:27 UTC

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A Knight fork is the best fork.
I believe they create a lot of the chaos.
Folks will say that, and then prioritise killing off the enemies Knight that gets too close.
Knights are better in closed games, bishops in open games.

2025-02-11 02:14:00 UTC

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I personally do not factor that in as a possibility.
It seems fantastical imho.

2025-02-11 01:49:45 UTC

For all the chess players in the room, what is your favourite piece, and why is it the Knight?

2025-02-11 01:47:58 UTC

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My analysis is measured.
Lots of folks didn't expect chop for 2024, nor right now. I did because markets of large size take more oomph to move them.
Im measured because the data tells me that is what is most likely. I don't know the future, nobody does.
But I am always honest with what I think is realistic vs BS engagement.

2025-02-11 01:44:09 UTC

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Not bearish, measured.
I've never said it would be THE TOP, just a likely spot for A TOP.
We need to pass 150k to get to 151k, and so on.

2025-02-11 01:41:56 UTC

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Im planning to.
Main issue is getting Nostr to work desktop (I try to avoid phone socials)

2025-02-11 01:27:33 UTC

Gold is absolutely ripping.
Amazing to watch.
every $300 jump in the gold price is 1x entire Bitcoin market cap.
If gold can move up by several trillions of dollars in a year...

2025-02-10 08:11:04 UTC

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Day for it.

2025-02-10 07:47:39 UTC

hello Nostr

2024-10-18 08:38:08 UTC

Paper #Bitcoin
Many folks like to argue that derivatives markets suppress the $BTC price, and stop number going up.
In this piece, I argue the opposite, that number go up will be hard without them.
My latest piece is below for Checkonchain subscribers.
https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/paper-bitcoin-01

2024-10-01 06:04:31 UTC

Devil's Advocate.
My latest #Bitcoin analysis is live for _checkonchain subscribers.
In this piece, I assessed almost every metric I have on charts.checkonchain.com to develop the most robust bear case I could, and check my bullish bias.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/devils-advocate

2024-09-24 10:23:51 UTC

With #Bitcoin Options in the headlines, I figured it was a good time to share an options 101 with _checkonchain subscribers.
I cover:
- What options are (calls/Puts)
- Options Buyers vs Sellers
- The Greeks (Delta, Vega, Theta)
- Example strategies
https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/options-101-derivatives-masterclass

2024-09-17 21:11:30 UTC

Beating the House Odds in #Bitcoin.
The latest @_checkonchain newsletter is out examining how often Bitcoin trades up, down or sideways.
From this, we can demonstrate strategies for HODLers to amplify their advantage, and put the odds in their favour.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/beating-the-house-odds

2024-09-13 07:33:42 UTC

#Bitcoin Demand Doldrums.
The latest analysis piece is out for @_checkonchain subscribers.
Today I share two perspectives:
- Hard realities by Check the Analyst
- What Check the HODLer is doing with that information.
Enjoy folks!
https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/demand-doldrums

2024-09-11 22:27:05 UTC

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I think you're exactly right about that. My read is that we're probably more undervalued than people think, since we tend to act off how we feel as much as what we see.
The counter point would be people may get frustrated earlier, and 'take what they can get', although I suspect Bitcoiners in particular have overcome a lot of this with experience and study.

2024-09-11 22:23:53 UTC

The latest episode of the _checkonchain Rough Consensus podcast is live with my market mentor Doc Severson.
Doc has taught me so much about market psychology, and I have used many of these skills to improve my understanding of Bitcoin onchain data.
I really enjoyed this conversation, and I have no doubt others will too.
https://youtu.be/J8rEAoHDYOI

2024-09-10 06:47:09 UTC

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nailed it. This is exactly how I think about it, and I learned a lot running this study too.

2024-09-10 05:43:22 UTC

Inflationary Illusions.
My latest #Bitcoin research piece is out for _checkonchain subscribers, examining why this cycle, ATH, and market feels different to prior ones.
What if we never made a real ATH at all?
https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/inflationary-illusions

2024-09-05 08:12:57 UTC

Today I learned that the _checkonchain newsletter is the #1 substack publication in Australia 🦘
Feeling very humbled, thank you to all of our subscribers who helped us get here.
https://m.primal.net/KfEd.jpg

2024-09-05 07:42:48 UTC

The latest _checkonchain subscriber Q&A session is live.
I cover three topics in a 1hr video:
1) Why I hold gold alongside #Bitcoin
2) How I think about $BTC Miners
3) A routine of metrics I use to assess blood is in the streets before I stack sats.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/how-to-identify-blood-in-the-streets

2024-09-02 03:32:59 UTC

Playing with Fire.
My latest market analysis piece is live for Checkonchain subscribers.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/bitcoin-playing-with-fire-onchain-analysis-market-update?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2swa18

2024-08-30 22:26:49 UTC

Given everything happening in Brazil, I wonder if a decentralised, uncensorable, scarce, digital, global monetary asset might be useful for the world right about now.
Is anyone building something like this?

2024-08-30 21:51:10 UTC

The Sell-side Risk Ratio is one of my all time favourite #Bitcoin metrics.
It is a tool that helps track trend exhaustion, market instability, and equilibrium.
The Sell-side Risk Ratio Masterclass is now live for _checkonchain subscribers.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/masterclass-sell-side-risk-ratio

2024-08-29 19:59:54 UTC

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impossible to know. I did cover this topic in detail during two monthly Q&As recently.
But we cannot measure the sold vs withdrawn, exchange flows will not have the answer as all coins were distributed via exchanges.

2024-08-29 19:28:59 UTC

The latest episode of the Rough Consensus podcast is live with Joe Caralsare.
This conversation was an absolute cracker, and Joe challenges so many of my priors throughout.
I think you're going to enjoy this one, I certainly did.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/rough-consensus-podcast-with-joe?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2swa18

2024-08-28 12:47:11 UTC

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the halvening
down 50% since the merge.

2024-08-28 12:46:11 UTC

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congrats mate, what a great run. You and the team should be incredibly proud of WBD, it changed the Bitcoin world.
All the best with the new show, and you've given me a reason to return to London (and visit Bedford for a match).

2024-08-28 12:41:00 UTC

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good luck fellas, looking forward to a few beers at Cheat Code.

2024-08-28 12:26:23 UTC

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no, really. I say this as someone more familiar with onchain data than most people in the world.

2024-08-28 12:12:29 UTC

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steady on...

2024-08-28 05:20:59 UTC

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The data is guaranteed to be incorrect. More likely moved to a new internal wallet and that data provider has not kept up.

2024-08-28 05:18:00 UTC

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happy to, what's your handle? same as here?

2024-08-28 05:06:45 UTC

In case folks didn't know, there is a full suite of Bitcoin charts available over at charts.checkonchain.com
All free, onchain, ETFs, derivatives and comparisons with TradFi.
https://m.primal.net/KRCS.png

2024-08-28 04:57:01 UTC

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HODLers are selling millions of dollars worth of coin every day. They have done for several months.
This is why things move slower, the capital needs to be larger, and the higher it goes, the more bitcoiners step off the train (with a fraction of their holdings)

2024-08-28 04:52:45 UTC

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Learn the onchain basics.
Realised Cap
MVRV
SOPR
if you can master those, you will be 5x better at picking market opportunities and risks than the average bear.

2024-08-28 04:45:38 UTC

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One of the few exceptions, SanI is a serious and professional analyst.

2024-08-28 04:43:19 UTC

Folks, one pro tip I recommend for everyone, is to ignore all commentary related to exchange balances that isn't coming from a serious professional analyst (even then, question it...).
Few data providers do a good job tracking the wallets, few analysts understand the data, and what is available is almost exclusively noise and click bait. The nuances are beyond ridiculous, and the problem is endlessly dynamic.
inflows, outflows, balances and supply squeezes. It has no relevance to price or the market, and should be ignored in the vast majority of circumstances.
Don't whale watch kids.

2024-08-28 04:39:06 UTC

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data is almost certainly wrong.
pro tip, ignore all exchange wallet commentary. It is almost always noise.

2024-08-28 02:50:35 UTC

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chopsolidation, it's good for the soul (and the bull)

2024-08-27 12:02:32 UTC

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#asknostr

2024-08-27 11:27:02 UTC

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Will do Tom...im always thirsty, but not always in Brissy