pahueg
Pascal Hügli

Mentally retired, financially semi-retired, professionally: only just starting 🚀 Book author: in English&German: http://kryptobu.ch

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npub1qhx7lnggpv64f0wt5xyjj7h90qh5ewu35pspr66sj8alc4gvcfjqqn04l8

NIP-05 Address

[email protected]

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsqtn00e5yqkd25hh96rzff0tjhst6vhwg6qcq3adgfr7lu25xvyeqpz4mhxue69uhk2er9dchxummnw3ezumrpdejqzrthwden5te0dehhxtnvdakqu8ncj9

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npub1qhx7lnggpv64f0wt5xyjj7h90qh5ewu35pspr66sj8alc4gvcfjqqn04l8

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Last Notes

2026-08-05 19:49:25 UTC

New LNMS & TBL collab
https://youtu.be/O77YxkVsnNY?si=3pWF5GEGY9dmmUAp
Together with Johan Bergmann from the @nprofile…569v , I‘ll be sitting down on a regular basis and discuss the latest topics in Bitcoin.
This time around we discussed:
-The wide implications of the Coldcard exploit
-The AI to Bitcoin rotation and whether it is underway
-Why bad news no longer pushing down the BTC price is actually bullish
🎧Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/m5b2rnht
🎧Apple: https://tinyurl.com/49brenzb
🎧Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/455fxybp
🎧Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/
https://blossom.primal.net/6a822881bfb7b3f90607de9b64eeb652cb3177af7ccc5aa401ed90116bf5881d.jpg

2026-08-04 06:23:32 UTC

- reply

Sir, how can I reach out and send you the deck?

2026-08-03 17:55:31 UTC

It's about time we to turn bullish on BTC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGpjlJ6AQVM
Macro:
-AI supercycle ✅
-Fiscal Flows ✅
-Short-term liquidity impulse✅
Bitcoin-specific:
-TA long-term trend ✅
-On-Chain Profit Taking Exhaustion✅
-25% of Realized Cap in Bottoming Zone✅
-Top-buyers have sold ✅
-6m to 1y top cohort in loss realization ✅
Check out our analysis
Honorable mentions @TheBitcoinLayer @MMTmacrotrader @crossbordercap @JohanMBergman @_Checkmatey_ @OnChainMind @JustDeauIt
Comment "Slide Deck" to get the slides.
🎧Spotify: tinyurl.com/5n8r96s2
🎧Apple: tinyurl.com/4nebs9vm
🎧Fountain: tinyurl.com/54whuwtd
🎧Rumble: tinyurl.com/yefubf28

2026-07-16 19:59:15 UTC

Latest LNMS episode with @nprofile…kzr3
https://youtu.be/W44cPkB8gBw?si=EPM7Q1rZSpKprPQp
-Why Bitcoin’s returns may keep falling over time
-Why Michael Saylor’s 21% growth thesis may not hold
-What happens when stocks start outperforming Bitcoin
-Why the real Bitcoin test may come around 2040
-Whether Bitcoin disciplines fiat, or fiat reshapes Bitcoin
-Why today’s BTC price may still be a historic opportunity
Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/48ebf7yn
Apple: https://tinyurl.com/3knz72ez
Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/bdhe7c6w
Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/yez39b5p
https://blossom.primal.net/5ce1c1bdf2822661e0f61c4c8c1ac55b6f9d9d343cd3f7af036c9d18ff1e4284.jpg

2026-07-14 21:35:46 UTC

New LNMS article on my conversation with @nprofile…nkvg from @nprofile…vr95
https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack.com/p/this-is-the-yield-bitcoiners-have
You‘ll learn:
🔶Why Bitcoin may no longer fit into a single asset category
🔶How Lightning can generate native Bitcoin yield
🔶Why this yield does not depend on leverage or token incentives
🔶How investors can retain custody while outsourcing operations
🔶The risks institutions need to understand
🔶How to deploy BTC to earn a native yield today!
Read more now!
https://blossom.primal.net/a847a4431c553a51db7921a645f33f55e2cd4c0da4683898abe353340e3205c3.png
https://blossom.primal.net/28ed589ec6013b230f15250dc6de1598fc5c55eb1272eb1a9ca9e048d74f25b4.png
https://blossom.primal.net/834d0688d3a9727661992ca50729e36a85d26486b9d5135d52348ea9e65682a9.png
https://blossom.primal.net/c0fbdc08f84a8ef34b218329c841c980613a599ef4d84dcae29ca3335020d98a.png
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https://blossom.primal.net/dee855eddbe5d162c924f5836d0203aa571ae7c67d8a6d1f51af111c644ff2ac.png

2026-07-03 11:52:45 UTC

Latest LNMS episode with Charles Edwards!
https://youtu.be/VMBrxxRC4MA?si=2CNHy-qv0cKG3DUG
We talk about:
-Why Bitcoin may be cheap, but the price chart is not clean yet.
-Why the four-year cycle may not be enough this time.
-How Strategy is similiar to TerraLuna!
-Why the biggest Bitcoin trade right now might be happening outside Bitcoin
-When to turn bullish again!
Spotify: tinyurl.com/4jucj4xk
Apple: tinyurl.com/bdet3b26
Fountain: tinyurl.com/5dpy826p
Rumble: tinyurl.com/25se9v6h
https://blossom.primal.net/9c6747bab0b16621a2789da9e34356f1abcb22d6ec230b046944f8ed1da1f3b7.jpg

2026-06-24 17:02:36 UTC

New LNMS Insights Take:
https://youtu.be/vQ7oQYgLYjA?si=XTD8efBXUrUjhdHD
-Governments may be printing money without calling it QE.
-The real liquidity engine is no longer the Fed. It’s short-term debt
-How Japan is shifting duration to the front-end and making rising long-end yields less of a worry
-What this all means for investors
Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/w4ad42e3
Apple: https://tinyurl.com/376njttw
Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/483asp8r
Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/3admnyn6
https://blossom.primal.net/d00a5fd548d973f7edb5e188826d533f6bf44c29b455ad377492b18bd628953c.jpg

2026-06-10 13:53:47 UTC

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What dashboard is this?

2026-06-09 20:37:43 UTC

Everyone is worried about Bitcoin!
Is Bitcoin loosing its grip and narrative?
And what to anchor to in bearm market times like these?
Here‘s why we Bitcoin. Bitcoin will be the next base layer money and it will be better than the previous ones.
Here‘s why:
https://youtu.be/1ol5IQCyKeU
Let me know what you think
https://blossom.primal.net/9f87ba9f8c43a353fd94899402ac025258e53fc34c776c7a1e44d3bd0f750b3f.jpg

2026-05-21 16:17:56 UTC

LNMS episode 113 with Jordan
https://youtu.be/e_Iv0f5a1r0?si=Z3AZphrXYuBCQLS1
We talk about:
-Why altcoins are losing their edge
-Why Bitcoin and altcoins are not the same game
-Why the best altcoin traders sell
-Why crypto faces a “come to Jesus” moment
-Why Bitcoin may have quietly broken the bear trend
-Why this rally may be healthier than it looks
Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/ytm2m6yu
Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/n2dadbpk
Apple: https://tinyurl.com/2s3e2nde
Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/25cbcapf
https://blossom.primal.net/3154453de2ab8fdb09520baca5005485dd613bb3a7711499f61dd3bf6e7e0ac3.jpg

2026-05-19 10:46:15 UTC

New LNMS Take:
The central bank put is dying and this lift the floor of equity volatility.
Here‘s how to think about is
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AK_0ONgxeUk&feature=youtu.be
Spotify: tinyurl.com/55epyzff
Apple: tinyurl.com/5n6nph3t
Fountain: tinyurl.com/yc8ykf66
Rumble: tinyurl.com/yzak6uv6
https://blossom.primal.net/b3975baeb8d548b3df5af01e4eb2f3eadf5edc01cf80f7ca742ab3fbab8b1e78.jpg

2026-05-16 20:43:15 UTC

We just published this update episode on our podcast:
https://youtu.be/AuJIqfXZHeA?si=C-XOYSTb3wrGUUXf
I feel like going community supported only is the way to go.
It‘s suits our nature way better. Me personally, I am just not a consumer-type guy, so I don‘t use/try a lot of things that I could even choose to shill from😅
Anyways, if you are listening/watching our podcast regularly and you feel like the podcast provides any value to you, any support is much appreciated!
We created this website where you‘ll find your favorite way to support, all very easy:
lessnoise-moresignal.com/support
Thanks to everyone who is part of the LNMS community!🙏🔥
More to come!!
https://blossom.primal.net/a211910e03c438b29f9ab8b3a1dee8779ccaeff8c4285a1ca0b431fa301cdae3.jpg

2026-05-14 20:41:47 UTC

LNMS episode 112 with @nprofile…3r8u
https://youtu.be/40ocm9fURVk?si=pooOsza2cMwAp2fa
We talk about:
-Why Bitcoin may have already bottomed while most investors are still waiting for confirmation
-Why the market looks terrifying, but still refuses to break
-Why the “Bitcoin to 40K” bear case may be running out of time
-Why Bitcoin mining is a “horrendous business”, and why miners pivoting to AI may actually make sense
-Why the new Satoshi documentary is a must watch!
Fountain: tinyurl.com/ynxb48jh
Spotify: tinyurl.com/mw2vbs6y
Apple: tinyurl.com/3hnjwjuk
Rumble: tinyurl.com/2f2fm6dy
https://blossom.primal.net/b8f777101de6555c8fbb04633e5d3e5aa243bd0f085f5b130506efde4dc3da98.jpg

2026-05-12 04:53:50 UTC

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Already GM again

2026-05-11 20:31:46 UTC

- reply

https://blossom.primal.net/4e040af922bac9107a92449140afce69e28f813279d650d3b5a1ff3f23266bd6.png
#nevent1q…0f2t

2026-05-11 20:20:14 UTC

- reply

https://primal.net/e/nevent1qqsrtdugm06pf2jl4kusljuc35mmy4a2cm3t4d2clv9h6n82sqsxz8glm0f2t

2026-05-11 20:19:50 UTC

LNMS episode 111 with Markus from 10xResearch
https://youtu.be/g2SONU2peUU
We talk about:
Is the Bitcoin bear market already over?
Why the halving may be the wrong signal to watch
Why investors are bullish, but still underpositioned
Why inflation could stay higher than markets expect
Why Bitcoin may be the only clean crypto trade
The hidden miner risk nobody is pricing in
Fountain: tinyurl.com/7u3avx7a
Spotify: tinyurl.com/mpumpnuv
Apple: tinyurl.com/45evff7y
Rumble: tinyurl.com/mry6zzky
Get a chance to win our Bitcoin book.
Check out the next post on how to 🤟👇

2026-05-07 20:29:39 UTC

LNMS episode 110 with @ctindale
https://youtu.be/2hM8gflPooQ?si=5ciHRFwsKh8o-Zjs
We talk about:
-Why the current conflict is not about Trump or politics but industrial power struggles
-How China captured the choke points of the physical economy
-Why AI, defense, and energy will all run into hard material constraints
-Why deglobalization is the only way out and why it will be painful, inflationary, and disorderly
-How investors should think when scarcity replaces abundance
Fountain: tinyurl.com/4cmdrd9x
Spotify: tinyurl.com/zmr5tkcs
Apple: tinyurl.com/4fnp889d
Rumble: tinyurl.com/47e5f497

2026-05-07 20:28:05 UTC

LNMS episode 110 with Craig Tindale
https://youtu.be/2hM8gflPooQ?si=5ciHRFwsKh8o-Zjs
We talk about:
-Why the current conflict is not about Trump or politics but industrial power struggles
-How China captured the choke points of the physical economy
-Why AI, defense, and energy will all run into hard material constraints
-Why deglobalization is the only way out and why it will be painful, inflationary, and disorderly
-How investors should think when scarcity replaces abundance
Fountain: tinyurl.com/4cmdrd9x
Spotify: tinyurl.com/zmr5tkcs
Apple: tinyurl.com/4fnp889d
Rumble: tinyurl.com/47e5f497
Want to get a chance to win our Bitcoin book?
👇
https://primal.net/e/nevent1qqsrtdugm06pf2jl4kusljuc35mmy4a2cm3t4d2clv9h6n82sqsxz8glm0f2t

2026-05-05 11:12:39 UTC

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Some more context
Insiders gonna inside…😒
https://blossom.primal.net/26f027d0745577dcdcf8f97190ed1df151998cc9b96eadae531df9cfd78f04a9.jpg
#nevent1q…de2v

2026-05-04 20:32:06 UTC

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This was a great episode with @nprofile…nx5t
If you follow us on @nprofile…cgkr and interact with this episode's post on Nostr, you get the chance to win a hardcopy of our Bitcoin book 'The Bitcoin Enlightenment' published by the SaifHouse.
Here's the link to Fountain, so you can follow us. Much appreciated 🙏
https://fountain.fm/show/JChxhQ3O0Oa9gae26CaR
https://blossom.primal.net/876032ce820f7b8d767579e24e6746c17bac5fdba8243ab8a2c4eb7d5fb9db16.png
#nevent1q…yjz4

2026-05-04 20:20:06 UTC

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LNMS episode 109 with @nprofile…nx5t
https://youtu.be/furS8k0aw9w
We talk about:
-Why he withdrew from social media completely & doesn't look back
-How he gets his information about what's happening
-How the US is using the Persian gulf blockade to make Iran's oil infrastructure implode
-The various BTC signals converging right now
Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/2u87zar5
Apple: https://tinyurl.com/3zss5pyd
Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/3yu6tsfb
Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/y5xre6c6
Win our book if you follow us on @nprofile…cgkr and interact with this episode!
Check out the full conditions here:
https://primal.net/e/nevent1qqsrtdugm06pf2jl4kusljuc35mmy4a2cm3t4d2clv9h6n82sqsxz8glm0f2t

2026-05-02 06:26:28 UTC

LNMS Episode 108 with Sonus Varghese
https://youtu.be/nQRYZQ1wTQI
We talk about:
-Why markets are rallying
-What if the Fed’s “pause” is actually a hidden easing cycle?
-Why could sticky inflation be bullish for stocks and gold?
-What if AI is not deflationary, but inflationary first?
-Why the classic 60/40 portfolio may no longer be enough!
Spotify: tinyurl.com/bpahfh8b
Apple: tinyurl.com/ywnbf8vb
Fountain: tinyurl.com/y6kxstd2
Rumble: tinyurl.com/2s3myx26
https://blossom.primal.net/d1170cd1ddf3acd042ef7554bd9069de10259323b4d380cd5332162c00d204bb.jpg

2026-04-29 19:11:43 UTC

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True that!
https://blossom.primal.net/cf25b616c89ebf2dac5ed5efb11f77b8e9272cabe7ff118548c5d7207ea56be5.jpg
#nevent1q…kr6z

2026-04-29 06:28:45 UTC

Meet the Swiss National Bank, the world’s largest hedge fund.
Here’s a snapshot of its current balance sheet:
110% of GDP, most assets are foreign currency holdings.
What might be the implications?!
https://blossom.primal.net/3a6c640c7328fa3ba63373678bd5017c1470446f1faae98fc8b45cfc73455367.jpg

2026-04-29 06:25:15 UTC

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Conditions and with it liquidity?
But, it’s a great point: is tightening conditions going hand in hand with lower liquidity levels.
What’s your take?

2026-04-29 05:26:35 UTC

The IMF says financia conditions have been tightening since the Middle East conflict started.
We argue that financial liquidity has actually been getting looser.
Full argument here:
https://open.substack.com/pub/lessnoisemoresignal/p/btc-at-decision-time-and-what-we?r=1xn5u0&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
https://blossom.primal.net/ca4bb3b43faef1d8acc97754ce5d350df2d4382adcd79304ae24664afa8a7a8a.jpg

2026-04-28 18:48:01 UTC

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Want to win our Bitcoin Book called the Bitcoin Enlightenment?
All you need to do is interact with our latest episode below.
Read more here: https://primal.net/e/nevent1qqsrtdugm06pf2jl4kusljuc35mmy4a2cm3t4d2clv9h6n82sqsxz8glm0f2t
#nevent1q…n3lq

2026-04-28 18:46:04 UTC

Interesting chart btw at the bottom
Las Vegas BTC conference happening this week!
However, we think there are bigger forces at play that can weigh on BTC in the coming weeks.
Read our latest newsletter for full picture on this 👇🏻🔥
https://open.substack.com/pub/lessnoisemoresignal/p/btc-at-decision-time-and-what-we?r=1xn5u0&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Do you agree?
https://blossom.primal.net/63f86c435a3f58b934cef1ee928ae77bb4c8b988aef60f86b6daa259521b3041.jpg

2026-04-28 18:44:12 UTC

“You gotta zoom out.”
BTC could easily go higher over the next few days, but that is not the trade we care about.
The real setup may be a mean reverting move over weeks, maybe even months.
Full argument in the article:
https://open.substack.com/pub/lessnoisemoresignal/p/btc-at-decision-time-and-what-we
Props to @nprofile…fcec for the chart!
https://blossom.primal.net/8b689f9cacd8dc2af402fe4e60e17f40ab6f5d61b3e9a1fae5b7334b9ed41a64.jpg

2026-04-27 20:07:20 UTC

LNMS meets The DeFi Report
https://youtu.be/Yn48xONIotg?si=CCKR-mt9mLxINepP
We talk to Michael Nadeau:
-What should be top of mind for investors from a macro perspective
-Where is the puck shifting right now?
-Have bitcoin top buyers already fully capitulated?
-Is DeFi dead?
-Is the pace of AI innovation disrupting smart contract blockains at their core?
Use this link to get 20% off The DeFi reports annual plan:
https://thedefireport.io/lnms
https://blossom.primal.net/ed9f695d4c61351d1b3df4be226f32d811288adc94209afcb2de5812d68b1785.jpg

2026-04-24 13:49:58 UTC

Want to win a signed Bitcoin book?
LNMS is giving away 3 signed copies to listeners who help grow our show on @nprofile…cgkr
To enter:
1. Follow the podcast on Fountain
2. Repost this note
3. Zap Sats or share content
4. Add #21Signal to every message
There are 3 ways to win:
-Become "Top Supporter": Highest total sats during the campaign
-Become "Most Bitcoin Like Zap": Best zap amount plus message. Be as creative as possible
-Become "Top Signal Amplifier": Best repost of one episode during the campaign that gets more people to discover the show
We’ll share leaderboard in every episode while the sprint lasts.
Campaign closes: May 15, 8pm CET
Follow the show on Fountain: https://fountain.fm/show/JChxhQ3O0Oa9gae26CaR
Less noise. More signal.
#21Signal
https://blossom.primal.net/d2bbe06ddc63bcb340aa1653c08d4d7604990ad9981fe8643ed57a239a002f8e.jpg

2026-04-23 12:16:47 UTC

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Jeff! This article is great🔥
I’d love to get on my podcast.
Would you be in?
https://youtube.com/@lessnoisemoresignalpodcast?si=vrJICCP-0lXU8T45

2026-04-21 21:09:12 UTC

New LNMS newsletter article:
https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack.com/p/war-liquidity-and-the-bitcoin-bear
Most people are still baffled by the fact that equity markets are back to all-time highs!
Well, let me tell you something: War headlines are not the primary force driving them any longer.
We have moved on. Here's what you need to watch:
-How much of the oil shock feeds through to inflation?
-Will the Fed really look through it all? If so, real rates could tick lower
-The dollar could tick lower as well
-And the overall liquidity situation could stay supportive
This is what we think markets are pricing right now!
Does this mean Bitcoin will continue its run?
Most likely not. There's still too much supply overhang and resistance at key levels.
Instead of chasing the rally, watch these three bottom signals and these three possible ends to this bear (elaborated on in the article).
To connect all the dots, read our latest piece:
https://blossom.primal.net/7131dd459aa51144bf35d3ce5054c525eb2d654e1221d079c9bee66e087393a5.jpg

2026-04-20 21:46:47 UTC

LNMS Episode 106 with Bob Elliot & Aahan from Prometheus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icM1Kj6d4ac
We talk about:
-Why Hormuz is not “partly closed”. It still IS a chokepoint. Full stop
-Why equities are still pricing denial and for how long
-Why predicting the war is not possible and where real edge lies
-Why your typical 60/40 portfolio is priced for peace and disinflation
-How not to trade macro ideas
Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/4wwzn7dt
Apple: https://tinyurl.com/5euuje5e
Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/2wnwvwjy
Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/4sbv239u
https://blossom.primal.net/a481cf4b803c5dfe647bc2def8ebc06a8515c1c692a57cadda63e51ccfa7905e.mp4

2026-04-17 10:53:42 UTC

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You get the feeling, yes

2026-04-16 19:59:43 UTC

LNMS Daily Briefing April 16
Global Macro:
• Apr 15: US escalated enforcement in Hormuz with expanded inspections and convoy controls while insurers raised premiums sharply, further restricting tanker supply. This deepens the physical constraint rather than easing it.
• Apr 15: Brent crude pushed toward ~$104 with front month spreads widening, signaling continued tightness in prompt supply despite diplomatic noise. Market structure confirms real scarcity.
• Apr 15: US real yields moved higher alongside breakevens, reflecting simultaneous tightening in financial conditions and rising inflation expectations from energy shock.
Bitcoin & Stablecoins:
• Apr 15: Regional trade flows increasingly settling in USD stablecoins rather than BTC as intermediaries prioritize liquidity and price stability. This reinforces stablecoins as the dominant transactional layer.
• Apr 15: No major ETF or on chain shift observed, with BTC holding range despite macro stress, suggesting limited leverage and no forced positioning unwind.
AI / Frontier Models:
• Apr 15: Amazon expanded Bedrock enterprise integrations with new agent based workflow tools and early enterprise adoption signals across logistics and customer operations. This points to deeper real world deployment.
• Apr 15: TSMC flagged sustained AI chip demand strength into late 2026 with capacity remaining tight despite expansion efforts. This supports continued capex intensity and pricing power.
Polymarket Signal:
• Global Macro: Will the US enter a permanent peace deal with Iran before April 30? Current probability 39 percent.
• AI / Frontier Models: Will Nvidia remain the largest company in market cap by end of 2026. This ties to ongoing supply constraints and demand concentration. Current probability 70 percent.
Watchlist
• Actual tanker throughput versus convoy capacity in Hormuz
• Pass through of energy into core inflation and Fed response
• Whether stablecoin settlement expands into formal trade agreements

2026-04-14 21:22:17 UTC

- reply

https://blossom.primal.net/3a5991fcfed8324bb4f08cba6aad526fa02a62d4484674477727b5084a424097.jpg
#nevent1q…kugl

2026-04-14 21:21:44 UTC

Episode 105 with Ben Kizemchuk
YT: https://youtu.be/JMMqkJ-V9B0
We talk about:
-Even a definite ceasefire may not stop equity market from correcting
-The consumer is not strong, real income/wages are hurting
-What we just saw may be the first real bear market rally
-How passive flows alter markets and make them more fragile
-Why stagnating tech giants is your real signal
🎧Apple: tinyurl.com/3u9u6ct3
🎧Spotify: tinyurl.com/3f2d94vm
🎧Fountain: tinyurl.com/mr38ua2t
🎧Rumble: tinyurl.com/4frrw5sx

2026-04-13 08:09:43 UTC

LNMS Daily Research Briefing April 13
Global Macro:
• Apr 12: US preparing sustained naval protection and partial blockade response around Hormuz while metals and energy markets react with higher spreads and volatility.
• Apr 11 to 12: Oil remains structurally bid near $95 to $100 despite ceasefire headlines as physical flows stay constrained and backlog persists.
• Apr 12: KKR revised macro outlook, cutting growth expectations and raising 10 year yield forecast to 4.5 percent due to energy driven inflation and geopolitical risk.
Bitcoin & Stablecoins:
• Apr 12: European banks and corporates are actively selecting partners for stablecoin infrastructure as adoption shifts from planning to execution.
• Apr 11 to 12: US stablecoin legislation enters critical phase with CLARITY Act pressure rising as policymakers frame it as strategic financial infrastructure.
• Apr 12: Telegram outlined plans to scale crypto payments globally, signaling renewed push toward real world transactional use cases.
AI / Frontier Models:
• Apr 12: No major new frontier model releases or pricing changes reported in last 48 hours, with focus remaining on infrastructure and enterprise rollout.
Polymarket Signal:
• Bet: Will the Strait of Hormuz be fully reopened by April end, tied to global energy flows and Iran conflict dynamics? This directly maps to current shipping disruption and oil pricing. Probability roughly 13 percent yes.
• Will the Fed cut rates before July 2026? This reflects inflation versus growth tradeoff. Relevant after CPI and oil shock repricing. Probability for pause till July roughly 72 percent.
• Will the CLARITY Act pass the Senate in 2026? This ties to current legislative push and crypto regulation. This connects to stablecoin and market structure developments. Probability roughly 60 percent yes.
Watchlist:
• Actual ship throughput in Hormuz versus headline ceasefire progress
• March PPI release and pass through of energy into core inflation
• Stablecoin legislation outcome and impact on banking system competition
Follow LNMS:
🎧 Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/5dsbbj5p
📰 Substack - LNMS Newsletter: https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack.com/

2026-04-13 06:06:18 UTC

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Which again serve end clients, no?

2026-04-09 18:41:22 UTC

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Thanks for coming on🔥💪🏻

2026-04-09 17:23:05 UTC

LNMS Episode 104 with @nprofile…a45g from @nprofile…naeg
YT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJ_5hez9DXc
We talk about:
-Why Lightning may be far bigger than it looks.
-How everyone is looking at it the wrong way!
-Why AI agents may end up choosing Lightning simply because the incentives are better
-Why stablecoins on Bitcoin could become one of the biggest unlocks for Lightning
-How Bitcoin may evolve from digital gold into a yield-bearing asset.
-Why Lightning could grow from a payments network into a full Bitcoin-native financial layer.
🎧Apple: tinyurl.com/ae2vp6ps
🎧Spotify: tinyurl.com/2s42yepa
🎧Fountain: tinyurl.com/mr2zdx4n
🎧Rumble:tinyurl.com/3hun7pyj
https://blossom.primal.net/fbb9d4362a6c1c57e3ca1ac0668c9da1ff8b3eefcd9202f7abc0cd1937112bd6.jpg

2026-04-08 07:11:07 UTC

New LNMS report just dropped!
Topic: What is REALLY driving the Bitcoin price?
This question seems more important than ever!
Download the report now:
https://www.lessnoise-moresignal.com/report
A huge thank you to all the contributors🔥💪🏻🙏
Please consider retweeting if you like it!
https://blossom.primal.net/bef82246960df6a44d1f55956b7b4bca72c0d21375a3ddd4cfa8e9ca076bf6aa.png
https://blossom.primal.net/51c9035d3b76e62ed5677254e32a92cfa112371deb8e3f28ab1ab884abb5f6b4.jpg
https://blossom.primal.net/54859f78d6affbdcbb689f6d08be297b4445fc888cdb8c2523feda05c64b15c8.png

2026-04-03 19:55:03 UTC

LNMS Episode 103
YT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uD14_sZDJ78
We talk about:
-Why almost every macro framework used is outdated
-How fiscal flows are the missing driver every investor needs
-How markets obsess over the wrong things (like the Fed)
-How you better explain what drives stocks, bubbles and bitcoin
-MMT versus Austrian Economics
-Why endorsing a gold standard, is endorsing big goverment
🎧Spotify: tinyurl.com/tawjd49n
🎧Apple: tinyurl.com/3p2jjka4
🎧Fountain: tinyurl.com/3tnamvmw
🎧Rumble: tinyurl.com/3ay7vccm
https://blossom.primal.net/7c422205577f311cb36defe21831673371f486574df36a4e4cc791d7674b1daa.mp4

2026-04-03 19:52:30 UTC

Less Noise More Signal is now also on @nprofile…l7sj
Check us out🤝🙏
https://fountain.fm/show/JChxhQ3O0Oa9gae26CaR
https://blossom.primal.net/bb1c7cc37bb48a39704e6e493cf9c1d78d9e49e94d0a5f466ab05a72e1eeeb5f.jpg

2026-04-03 19:51:15 UTC

https://fountain.fm/show/JChxhQ3O0Oa9gae26CaR

2026-01-23 22:38:22 UTC

Okay, now things get serious.
What should I answer?
And would you watch an LNMS episode of me interviewing Sydney on her views on Bitcoin?
Better subscribe to the show, you never know it might happen some day! 🙏 🙃
https://youtube.com/@lessnoisemoresignalpodcast?si=BcJgPuHU_u16p---
https://blossom.primal.net/65c5ff27ec1086750126822f7e8f250fa3e0d01366b72065b2bab9e978bcb36c.jpg

2026-01-22 17:33:40 UTC

Latest episode with Globalflows & Michael Howell
https://youtu.be/ZtyG6BAu_SA
Topics:
-Why cross-border capital flows matter so much for liquidity
-Why hardly any investor is focused on them
-Where the marginal liquidity is coming from right now
-What the major macro risks are in 2026
-Are liquidity spigots really drying up?
-What is really driving the Bitcoin price
-Whether or not more cuts will be priced in forward curve?
https://blossom.primal.net/167ab4dd139aebaf9030e196ad4010228b385bc8780d608e16171afc16796659.mp4

2025-11-14 21:47:25 UTC

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You have to show it to me:)

2025-11-14 10:51:45 UTC

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Yes! Bin gerne mal dabei!

2025-11-14 10:50:36 UTC

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What are you doing here? Can you explain like I am 5?

2025-10-21 20:29:41 UTC

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Amazing. Collecting chestnuts:)?

2025-10-21 12:22:11 UTC

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Where is this:)?

2025-10-20 18:26:08 UTC

Latest LNMS newsletter is out:
https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack.com/p/ending-qt-wont-do-much-and-why-almost
➡️Are bank reserves really scarce?
➡️Fascinating case study of BTC's real-time price changes to recent plumbing changes
➡️Why investors should pay attention to rumors around gov' shutdown ending and Nov 5 Supreme Court tariff decision
➡️Gold's rally as a structural change and how to really think about the gold–Bitcoin “catch-up” trade.
➡️Why the end of quantitative tightening (QT) won’t make any material difference
➡️A fresh look at inflation
https://blossom.primal.net/c83849ece5b89c7a508568d6b47fe87a7f34d5c068c737242fd06d82b2678bcc.jpg

2025-10-20 09:52:40 UTC

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I‘d love to use Nostr more often. However, I am looking for a content scheduling assistant tool that I can hook up with Nostr? Does this exist? Thx

2025-10-20 09:50:56 UTC

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Juraj, is there a free scheduling assistant that allows publishing to nostr directly?

2025-10-20 09:45:51 UTC

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Is there a post schedulinh assistant for nostr (for free)?

2025-10-20 09:36:06 UTC

#asknostr
Is there a free schedulinh software for Nostr?

2025-10-20 09:26:34 UTC

You wanna tell me the economy is weak?
Well, bank earnings tell a different story!
https://blossom.primal.net/5dafd950891918cd8bbec118f8d53cae63ca43589e598587ca29bf58e9ef236c.jpg

2025-10-17 20:03:11 UTC

Here's my talk with Infranomics:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOYOCreAJ7U&t=9s
Prepare for a bunch of interesting charts with this one:
-Understanding TIPS auctions and how it helps get a read on inflation
-The silent depression thesis
-Why the average person feels so left behind
-How government spending, financial assets and corporate profits are outperforming GDP
-The importance of adjusting the denominator!
https://blossom.primal.net/ab05636b20d264e2651733200470f48fc3ab48c274a4f43e27e7d7cdca0edeb5.mp4

2025-10-08 19:37:44 UTC

This was a true masterclass type talk for me with Johan Bergman
https://youtu.be/bBXWqERZkRI?si=Jciq60b9Jh32eF4T
We talk about:
-Bitcoin‘s evolvinh yield curve
-What Strategy‘s preferreds are and how the function
-How a proper credit rating on them opens up this market to trillions
-How you can use these preferreds in combination with your house
-How to think about BTCTC
-Why BTCTCs will need to put their BTC to work
-Why you need a strategic fiat reserve when on a Bitcoin Standard
-And much more!
Truly mind-blowing convo! Check it out now

2025-09-19 19:34:27 UTC

I usually don‘t just talk about a product. But this time, I had to.
https://youtu.be/yjtYpoN9IYM?si=SpG_nV4FWaNLFizf
Horizon is a very interesting approach, leveraging our (parents’) house to buy more Bitcoin🔥
With Joe and Smeet, I talk about:
-What a home equity investment is?
-Why no HELOC or mortgage?
-Who the product is for?
-What the risks are?
-Can something like this be done in Europe as well?
After listening to these guys, I now finally understand how Bitcoin will eat real estate!
https://blossom.primal.net/1a9d24503578610ebbbef11f3774c32346809ea60f0a296e4a7c9df01265a9e0.mp4

2025-09-18 06:50:30 UTC

This is my conversation with Caleb Franzen.
https://youtu.be/bMESqFI6zlM?si=Y90L2n2tEKPr-g_m
We talk about:
-US rate cut is coming, but what type of rate cut?
-How to deal with rate cuts in the face of reacceralting inflation?
-„One cut and done“?
-How to not fade trending markets?
-An indicator nobody talks about
Enjoy!
https://blossom.primal.net/58d599fd691bd652e0182683f8e47ee099fdb077d08282773df02af16644c978.mp4

2025-08-28 16:40:37 UTC

New interview with Taylor Neville💥
We talk about:
-Why he‘s so bearish, he‘s bullish
-What the advent of Weimar America means for financial markets
-How to trade markets as an uber bull
-How Trump is centralizing the Fed & Treasury to decentralize the broader market
-Why this cannot be the Bitcoin top just yet!
https://youtu.be/ibymmxLPeYA?si=tji0fDAcEpjMn3Q_
https://blossom.primal.net/9eac17e7c7166e5d3e01926a671b81bf6c68f90a97b85498af7fcf8b5adaf6a9.mp4

2025-08-08 20:23:38 UTC

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Nice! Hope I get @nprofile…kpej on my podcast LNMS to discuss this topic. I feel like he could deliver a masterclass for my audience as well!

2025-08-08 17:59:41 UTC

Once a Bitcoin skeptic, now an advocate. @nprofile…zhvd is a climate tech investor who took a deep dive into Bitcoin... and came out bullish.
YT: https://youtu.be/g0NQnxK9KcE
In this episode, we unpack:
-Why Bitcoin Mining is key to the green energy revolution
-How disruptive tech always faces doubt — until it doesn't
-Why Bitcoin is a climate ally, not an enemy
-How Bitcoin is net benefical for climate endeavors
-Its growing social impact
-And the challenges still ahead
Don’t miss this one.

2025-08-07 15:25:10 UTC

Just released my conversation with Mexican billionaire and Bitcoin bull Ricardo Salinas.
YT: https://youtu.be/Qk9Vk--WRao?si=-9xdvAAX5WrOaJT1
We cover:
-His new book The Bitcoin Enlightenment
-His relationship with Michael Saylor and the mutual respect they have for each other
-Why he does NOT follow Strategy‘s playbook with his firms
-If Bitcoin advocacy has hurt his business
-What defines a great entrepreneur
-Why money isn’t everything
-And more

2025-08-07 15:24:43 UTC

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Yes! You should come next year as well!

2025-07-24 19:57:43 UTC

Hot new episode off the printer, with @nprofile…jy4g
We discuss:
-How he was able to predict Bitcoin’s ATH breakout
-How to approach the current price discovery phase
-Early signals that already foreshadow the future bear market
-Key Bitcoin price levels to watch—and how to plan ones investment strategy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDnVVDxCwjc

2025-07-17 16:20:52 UTC

This is my conversation with Ben Kizemchuk — and it was truly eye-opening. Some discussions feel like a full-on software update for your brain. This was one of them.
YT: https://youtu.be/CmrI3ZF5WDo?si=3AMXH0dJfq0rWB56
We covered:
-The 4Fs framework for making sense of today’s world
-Why we’re entering a new era where traditional investment models and metrics break down
-How to think about MMT, post-scarcity economics, recursive capital, and AI
-And much more
Enjoy

2025-07-17 15:57:01 UTC

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Thx sir!

2025-07-17 04:22:47 UTC

Thank you @nprofile…tn6f for a great chat on @nprofile…z633
https://youtu.be/nx5WF6vlJ7Y?si=xZLchjb0SeYTaODw

2025-07-14 14:52:12 UTC

As #Bitcoin has blown past $120k, our good old friend John Maynard Keynes is reporting from the belly of the beast!
I can hear you guys shouting: "One of us, one of us!"
Order the Bitcoin Enlightenment now: https://www.amazon.com/-/de/dp/B0F9W8Y283
https://blossom.primal.net/09f2776ef44505bfc3117f66bd58408b48b705ed5d34ef13ed6649aed08a987b.mov

2025-07-10 16:18:47 UTC

Great discussion I had with Gabriel. Although we recorded pre OBBBA passing, the episode is still very enlightening.
YT: https://youtu.be/dj7n3i1cigY?si=GcIaPXcTRtWvcg2Q
We talk about:
-What exactly are extraordinary measures?
-Why following Treasury actions is key for investors
-How exactly will the TGA be replenished going forward?
-Does bitcoin really trade based on liquidity?
https://blossom.primal.net/41169dd4753f219a6dc2b9b8ac7b56a1b5a1097bba9c5cd5b340052b876b5614.mp4

2025-07-07 20:46:43 UTC

Remember that legendary 1984 clip where Friedrich August von Hayek basically predicted #Bitcoin?
We tracked down his modern-day counterpart for his take on what’s happening now.
Here’s what he had to say👇
And don't for get your copy now: https://www.amazon.com/-/de/dp/B0F9W8Y283/
#Seperationofmoneyandstate
https://blossom.primal.net/68d23bbe0eadae4d15448db2b078aee17c8d91f20f361276f525181efc71ce7f.mov

2025-07-06 18:11:24 UTC

Hey Bitcoiners!
This is what the great @npub12us…0jwd has to say about our new book 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘉𝘪𝘵𝘤𝘰𝘪𝘯 𝘌𝘯𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵.
Thank you Max. Ricardo Salinas, @nprofile…vq7k, Daniel and me, very much appreciate your precious words!
Hope to see you in El Salvador soon and gift a copy of your book to @npub1n6y…a474
Get your copy now: amazon.com/dp/B0F9W8Y283
https://blossom.primal.net/23bbc0772a022040fd1ae28ee225e98cac6d2aa04562eca4d7a8b5764bd9703c.jpg

2025-07-04 15:48:05 UTC

Ever wondered what Martin Luther has to say on #Bitcoin?
Check out his message to the populace of today!
And check out the Bitcoin Enlightenment: amazon.com/dp/B0F9W8Y283
https://blossom.primal.net/f6ba45c89686fec7a25a3225bd5459645e49a1b3a8a79517cf0ae2b624c92178.mov

2025-07-03 16:04:30 UTC

This is my convo with Will Clemente
YT: https://youtu.be/SYhFbS8uxo8
We talk about:
-Why the US is in full ponzi mode
-When will Musk return to Bitcoin
-Why pay attention to the alts market right now
-What crypto equities to look at
-What the life as a Crypto KOL is REALLY like
It‘s good to see you back in full force Will🔥

2025-06-26 20:49:05 UTC

Here's my most recent discussion with @nprofile…g28z
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3l_Lc_d9zo
We talk about:
-The core raison d'etre of central banks
-How fiat technology improved money
-How fiat technology actually enables war making
-Can Bitcoin really curtail government deficit spending (and war financing)?
-Treasury buybacks are NO money printing, but why they matter anyway
-Is MMT and CBDCs fiat’s endgame?

2025-06-20 10:53:28 UTC

This was an amazing chat with Jordi Visser, a macro brain that is all over the two most important topics of today: AI and Bitcoin.
We talk about how the two relate, how AI is challenging macro assumptions and how exactly you should be using AI yourself.
YT: https://youtu.be/JS4Q0iAWmKM?si=FJ-wqHiLcAj722W3
https://blossom.primal.net/8c4aa33a73d7dee793f336548e4b3d8f65dbbd6f1b0eb80c80c99f66644091dd.jpg

2025-06-12 16:18:07 UTC

This is my conversation with Eric Weiss on how he orange-pilled Michael Saylor.
YT: https://youtu.be/qkZS0BTd4VQ
This was fun discussion about Bitcoin, billionaire and HNWIs.
And yes, as irony would have it, Eric suddenly receive a call from @nprofile…ukjf

2025-06-05 16:34:37 UTC

Excellent new episode with Sean Bill from @npub1jg5…6n8n
YT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=giw8RDXvmMo
We discuss:
-How Bitcoin can help address public pensions' unfunded liability problem
-Why Bitcoin is fundamentally different from tech stocks — backed by compelling data
-Smart allocation and rebalancing strategies for money managers
-Why self-sovereignty matters when it comes to holding Bitcoin
-Different Bitcoin investment strategies — from yield and income to alpha generation
@nprofile…uehg thanks for amplifying! 🤝
https://blossom.primal.net/ef6eb6374df3b4336a0b0a11ab89475265dc89be73f37382b0484be0ceda11c3.mp4

2025-06-04 21:22:29 UTC

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Yes. If top, then only local

2025-06-04 20:02:18 UTC

Bitcoin about to put in a double top?
Since its all-time high of $111k, Bitcoin has corrected about 6% to $105k. After hovering at this level for several days, some investors are now concerned we could be seeing the formation of another double top, similar to 2021. Frankly, I expected Bitcoin to push higher after breaking its all-time high in May. The reason it hasn’t is mainly because the demand side looks weak.
For one, ETF inflows have stalled, even turning negative by nearly $1 billion in late May and early June. Strategy also appears to be struggling to attract fresh capital, having purchased only 705 BTC on June 2.
On-chain dynamics show that coins held for 3 to 5 years — amounts comparable to local tops in March and November 2024 — are being sold into the market. The inability to absorb these coins at all-time-high prices suggests demand is fading.
From a sentiment perspective, last week’s Bitcoin conference felt like a potential top signal; watching the livestream gave me the impression that the enthusiasm from Bitcoin Treasury companies might be at a peak level.
The upcoming Circle IPO is another example: targeting a fully diluted valuation of up to $7.2 billion, the upcoming IPO is said to be oversuscribed by 25x. If this doesn’t give you late-cycle vibes, I don‘t know what will.
Finally, leverage remains elevated, as seen in futures volume, signaling that many investors are still positioned for immediate upside. Although this has eased somewhat since the all-time high, it’s still not non-negligible.
So, where do we stand? A week ago, I speculated that BTC would go to $120k fairly fast. I remain cautiously bullish in the short term, particularly as long as we hold above the short-term holder cost basis at $97k. Should we fall below that level, market psychology could take a real hit and things would have to be seriously assessed.
To stay above it, we’ll need to see fresh demand step in. If we dip lower in the coming days, I’d expect the first meaningful demand and support zone to appear around $99k.
Thoughts?

2025-06-04 13:16:59 UTC

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Cannot follow:)?

2025-06-04 05:03:33 UTC

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Thanks sir! Hope you get to read it!

2025-06-03 16:45:41 UTC

We are truly honored that @nprofile…ggvh has read our new book ‘The Bitcoin Enlightenment’ and shared such a thoughtful and generous praise.
Thank you, Lyn. I think I speak in the name of the entire industry, when I say:
Your work is inspiring countless people in this space — ourselves included — and we’re deeply grateful to have you.
Get your copy of the book now:
https://academy.saifedean.com/product/the-bitcoin-enlightenment-hardcover
https://blossom.primal.net/850cfac17c0420a0522101df5c88e7bbcc096778357aa8d73dc25c18366c39fd.jpg

2025-05-29 13:40:10 UTC

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Nice! We are looking at dezentralshop

2025-05-28 20:59:04 UTC

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It is the first serious one. Read in the book, details laid out

2025-05-28 20:58:28 UTC

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Where do you want to ship?
And working on integration to pay with BTC

2025-05-28 16:36:55 UTC

After months of anticipation, I’m thrilled to announce that our new book is finally here.
The Bitcoin Enlightenment is our magnum opus — a tribute to the #Bitcoin community and a deep dive into its transformative potential.
Here are only a few unique selling points the book offers:
➡️ An exclusive look into the family history of Mexican billionaire and Bitcoin advocate Ricardo B. Salinas
➡️A coherent, fact-based account of humanity’s fall from monetary grace
➡️A unique historical deep dive into the founding of the world’s first central bank (BoE) and the rise of government bond markets
➡️How fiat money places an especially heavy burden on younger generations
➡️Why CBDCs and MMT represent the endgame of the fiat system
➡️An assessment of the striking parallels between Bitcoin and the Reformation
➡️A forward-looking exploration of what a bitcoinized world might look like
I am beyond grateful to have had this opportunity!
Thanks for all the help, words of encouragement and general support! Also to @nprofile…qr3k and team
Order the book now (and if you do, thanks for leaving a review 👏 🙏)
amzn.eu/d/7o1cqzT
https://blossom.primal.net/72416aa775890ca8e8332c69e41fbfbe8b1e70ca906de61bd6b18fc327461539.jpg

2025-05-28 08:19:01 UTC

Spotted at #Bitcoin2025
The Fiat Standard - @nprofile…x7uh
The Bitcoin Enlightenment - Ricardo Salinas, Daniel Jungen and @nprofile…mqxd
Broken Money - @nprofile…c44v
A golden trio?😎🔥Go get them now!
https://thesaifhouse.com
Props to @nprofile…uyet for the amazing pic!
https://blossom.primal.net/c875823758fac0e4aac7795598f221b5ca9f06a8bce3404f39820ae33fab621b.jpg

2025-05-07 20:13:46 UTC

This is my interview with Michael Every of Rabobank
Michael brings a unique perspective on how Trump is just a symptom of our Liberal World Order collapsing in real time!
On the LNMS, he breaks down the sweeping global shifts across social, cultural, psychological, demographic, political, military, technological, and geopolitical dimensions.
What does this mean for investors? Listen in!
https://youtube.com/watch?v=DrVQT6YSiTM

2025-05-01 20:32:30 UTC

Bang Bang - New episode with the CEO of Tether
YT: https://youtu.be/EARiXl1e7Ag?si=egloMUE0oA-NUnbR
With Paolo I talked about:
-Can Tether still fail?
-Tether’s Sci-Fi investments: Are they making the world a better place?
-Are governments in emerging markets looking to bank USDT?
-Whether stablecoin issuers are the better banks
-Why Tether doesn't need to kiss anybody's ass
-How many Bitcoiners are just like armchair football coaches, ready to criticize everything.
https://m.primal.net/Qjpc.mp4

2025-05-01 20:30:10 UTC

2025-04-30 20:05:04 UTC

Anyone agree here?
https://m.primal.net/Qimf.jpg

2025-04-28 07:40:54 UTC

This is the most compelling case for adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset in light of the coming AI disruption that I’ve heard.
YT: https://youtu.be/Exuwj8Aaoho?si=esWuf7SrYKAQ6R1V
Thanks to Matt Cole for coming on LNMS!
#Bitcoin #CorporateAdoption #HurdleRate #ESG #InvestmentStrategies #Strive #FinancialMarkets #LongTermThinking #ZombieCompanies #EconomicTrends #CSuite #AI #GameStop #CorporateStrategy #InvestmentRisks #CapitalScarcity #EasyMoney #BitcoinInvestorWeek
https://m.primal.net/QbpE.mp4

2025-04-24 16:45:06 UTC

This is the most compelling case for adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset in light of the coming AI disruption that I’ve heard.
https://youtu.be/Exuwj8Aaoho?si=esWuf7SrYKAQ6R1V
Thanks to Matt Cole from Strive for coming on LNMS!
https://m.primal.net/QbpE.mp4

2025-04-21 17:23:12 UTC

Ever since witnessing the economic murder of God, our society has spiraled into financial nihilism.
YT: https://youtu.be/xxIpg08hqQ8?si=7pXn-Jlf24xJER4F
In conversation with Travis Kling, we explore this connection—how Bitcoin intersects with faith, and how crypto exposes the fiat mentality embedded within us.
https://m.primal.net/QYXt.mp4