timevalueofbtc
Nik Bhatia

thebitcoinlayer.com

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npub1qw6e8meaj5gzk49alamh9qf35lpmml5sq7ctjtxhcjk55qppmcjs0j2v52

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nprofile1qqsq8dvnau7e2ypt2j7l7amjsyc60saal6gq0v9e9ntuft22qqsaufgpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumn0wd68ytnzv9hxghd2pt3

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relay.nostr.band

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npub1qw6e8meaj5gzk49alamh9qf35lpmml5sq7ctjtxhcjk55qppmcjs0j2v52

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Last Notes

2026-03-30 10:14:44 UTC

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great pic

2026-02-24 00:11:43 UTC

Claude kills again!

2026-01-27 13:11:28 UTC

GM & PV
We bought a CO2 monitor. Windows getting opened at all hours. Wife asks “is this your new obsession?” to which I responded “yup”
count your blessings!

2026-01-24 02:09:45 UTC

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This is the way!!

2026-01-24 02:08:44 UTC

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Chatting with Claude as I drive around town, to campus and to pick up my daughter. I ask him things, he tells me, and I come up with research ideas. Use voice mode in the car. On the desk, I have Claude build me spreadsheets and flesh out speculative research. Beyond powerful.

2026-01-23 16:32:06 UTC

With gold practically $5,000 and silver at $100, the sentiment in bitcoin is so poor due to being left out of the metals rally that it almost feels like post-FTX $17,000 bear vibes
I am bullish but the painful type where fear dominates and you have to push through it

2026-01-19 14:02:28 UTC

GM and PV good people
Sending love peace and blessings

2026-01-17 17:46:31 UTC

One has to wonder if Trump and Bessent are actively trying to box out the Supreme Court from ruling against tariffs by demonstrating that the core of the issue is the multi-decade US-China Cold War rather than an isolated economic move or loophole around the legislative branch

2025-12-23 17:03:03 UTC

PURA VIDA
COUNT YOUR BLESSINGS

2025-11-13 13:51:44 UTC

GM & PV
The less time on Twitter the more free I feel. And my wife said she’s proud of me for not chasing the algo.
Count your blessings!

2025-11-06 14:03:42 UTC

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Government spending, unfortunately, is in the driver’s seat for the foreseeable future.
#nevent1q…35my

2025-10-24 15:18:39 UTC

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One of our great episodes, a 500 year context to today’s geopolitical events. Don’t miss this one.
#nevent1q…z2jt

2025-10-23 11:59:16 UTC

GM and PV
Wonderful day as always to count your blessings
I have now logged out of Twitter on my trading station (phone was last year). Only laptop remains and I have been checking it much less. I had convinced myself in the past I needed Twitter because that’s where news happens, but at what cost to inner peace?

2025-10-06 15:35:32 UTC

Monday Blessings to you all, PV

2025-10-01 18:18:13 UTC

“The dollar” is a derivative of things that have value and are commonly denominated in dollars, such as assets. The dollar is itself fleeting, as is all currency today. Currency is not an asset.
It used to be linked to an asset, gold, which is a mind trick used on the populace.
Bitcoin is an asset.

2025-09-10 12:14:51 UTC

GM and PV friends and readers
Count your blessings and channel divine energy

2025-09-05 21:16:39 UTC

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Brilliant to you have you on to discuss the big picture @nprofile…7mxc! Thank you for providing so much context for your views. People will learn a lot.
#nevent1q…0260

2025-08-27 12:54:00 UTC

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YOU ARE WHAT YOU THINK ABOUT ALL DAY LONG
GM & PV
#nevent1q…ma6q

2025-08-19 14:12:53 UTC

Bitcoin has only had ~450 difficulty adjustments. Very early, very young network. Few understand this.
GM, PV

2025-08-17 15:07:25 UTC

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I have done 3 q&a events this month across the country, a lot of focus on Strategy, a natural occurrence in the adoption path
So many MSTR and STRC questions

2025-08-17 00:49:15 UTC

I miss pre-Saylor bitcoin, but here we are!

2025-08-15 13:03:44 UTC

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GM, PV
#nevent1q…4qhj

2025-08-14 12:57:06 UTC

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GM, PV
YOU ARE MEANT FOR MORE
COUNT YOUR BLESSINGS
#nevent1q…es9g

2025-08-09 02:11:52 UTC

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Epic night! Summertime Chi!

2025-08-08 14:02:32 UTC

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Thank you for joining!!

2025-08-06 18:29:49 UTC

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from NYC a pic I took
https://blossom.primal.net/44c67ca24e668ccb5e04db17f41c08f1aaccf4c9129b298af87944e1872eaf95.jpg

2025-08-04 12:40:55 UTC

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GM, PV Matt

2025-08-02 16:47:39 UTC

How I feel these days
https://blossom.primal.net/2f1cd8cabbb9b2716e001c68012cf8524e26c4db3f2b21f111b04091d78c34f3.png

2025-07-30 14:37:04 UTC

Letter from a student. Rewards of leaving a life on the trading desk to research and teach. It doesn't get better than this. Makes me realize how much I am blessed. Showing my wife these is an equally special moment because of proof-of-work.
"Good morning/evening Professor Nik,
I just wanted to take some time to thank you for everything I learned in your Bitcoin program.
Honestly, when I first read "AI and Finance," I thought you were going to teach quantitative finance with AI as some new algorithm. I applied because it was literally the only class that interested me, and I'm pretty sure I put it as all three of my choices on the application.
When I found out later that it was mainly about finance fundamentals, I thought I was going to have a horrible time. Boy, was I wrong—I accidentally discovered that besides computer science, finance might actually be my thing.
I didn't realize how important the stuff we covered (especially credit creation and layered money) was until I started my recent internship at <REMOVED FOR PRIVACY>. The foundation you built for understanding markets—especially that class where you talked about credit creation and what happens to stocks and treasuries when more loans get taken out—has been incredibly helpful.
The knowledge from your class has actually let me start conversations about crypto and stablecoins with some of my colleagues who've been in high finance for over two decades. I've been able to explain where Bitcoin gets its value and what stablecoins actually are. When they asked questions like what Bitcoin's market cap really means, I could talk about UTXOs and explain concepts like Bitcoin's realized value.
This class really inspired me and honestly might even change the career path I end up taking. But above everything else, being able to actually transact Bitcoin in class was lowkey cool (not gonna lie, best thing ever)—it felt so much different than just reading the tech docs for the protocol.
Thanks again for such an eye-opening semester!"

2025-07-29 17:35:58 UTC

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I think the wealthy class is already well aware. In fact I know professional athletes and many are bitcoiners.

2025-07-29 13:14:04 UTC

No Twitter on my phone for about a year now. Life much better. More attention on my family when I’m with them. Scrolling was causing neck pain on the side I hold my phone. Inner peace is the way. I still tweet from the desk and wish my business model didn’t depend on social media promo so much, but alas.
GM, count your blessings!

2025-07-28 13:58:47 UTC

GOOD MORNING
BOOK SIGNING @npub1key…lt3h NYC AUGUST 5TH
BOOK SIGNING @npub1cxy…hz6x SF AUGUST 14TH
SEE YOU THERE!
COUNT YOUR BLESSINGS!

2025-07-24 15:33:47 UTC

Fiat makes it difficult to discern whether gains are from dilution or productivity

2025-05-31 05:19:56 UTC

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I was pleasantly surprised at how much I enjoyed the conference. Usually not a fan of such enormous crowds, but this experience was defined by high quality people, from individuals, to couples, to professionals. Incredible to meet some of you in person. Beyond blessed!
#nevent1q…z657

2025-05-14 00:06:08 UTC

Money don’t make you solid,
it just makes you 10 times more of the person you are before you got it

2025-05-05 19:51:39 UTC

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I had so much fun writing this book. So far, it’s in about 2,500 hands. Honored to have such amazing readers around the world.
nevent1qqsd4pda7tjsd3jq6gtms20sccwk6d0rwxevw60zgfy7mqftp0z0elcpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgx6fac7

2025-05-01 12:20:56 UTC

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Extremely high signal episode with Dines on dollar recycling in China being replaced by gold purchases. Also, how the Eurodollar system is impacted by tariffs.
nevent1qqs0pxy9q46xc3hc3nspkurk2gxnkz09usypmfjylwf5wkr0k2pqxsspzemhxue69uhky6t5vdhkjmn9wgh8xmmrd9skcrwmpfm

2025-04-30 13:37:42 UTC

Bitcoin Age audiobook is now available. I hope you guys will take a listen!

2025-04-12 19:00:39 UTC

I’m here all week!
https://m.primal.net/QNLy.jpg

2025-04-09 02:51:19 UTC

good evening
count your blessings
I am officially on 1-hour candles across all charts on the desk tonight
nice to be back on nostr!

2024-03-04 14:55:06 UTC

Satoshi broke economics with digital scarcity. No supply response destroys every model.

2023-12-13 17:49:01 UTC

In the spirit of doing right by our TBL readers, I went back to check on how I thought the year would play out from a rates perspective. I also wanted to see just how soon I thought cuts would be here (because I was clearly early to that call).
Here is what I wrote in January:
"Our big [2022] claim was “don’t assume that the Fed will pivot at the first sign of equity weakness”—this ended up being correct. Our next claim was that hikes would slow to a pause by the end of the year—this did not happen, but slowing inflation makes us confident we are merely early to the call."
Postmortem: The pause happened after July's hike, and yes we were quite early to the disinflation party. It's for you to judge if we were correct and just early, or wrong.
Next forecast:
"This year, the debate will center around rate cuts during a recession. For that, we’ll need to understand when the recession has actually arrived (it hasn’t yet, especially with a relatively strong fourth quarter of GDP), how serious it is, and how much the housing market physically requires lower rates to carry on. The Fed’s job, in its own eyes, is not to rush to pivot its policy rate lower, but rather to maintain a restrictive rate for as long as it can to assure inflation has come back down. The Fed’s battle then becomes whether to protect its reputation as a two-way institution or succumb to the critiques that it is simply a money-printing whale with no long-term ability to stop. Currently, the Fed has been in tightening mode coming up to a year, but with the vast majority of the past decade and a half in easing mode, the onus is on the Fed to prove it can remain restrictive. Just as many believe them as those who don’t, which should sustain the lively debate for months to come."
Postmortem: Without a doubt, I was wrong to suggest that a recession would arrive and that a debate around cuts would involve a recession. The US did not come close to a recession in 2023, but rate cut debates have begun with a few weeks to go in the year. I suggested that the debate on how restrictive they could be would remain lively for months to come, and I think this will mark the big difference between my 2023 and 2024 outlooks.
My 2024 outlook will unabashedly predict a cutting cycle (we've already suggested cuts by March in Europe and by June in the US). I really don't have any problem being 6-12 months early to a call, because my investment framework is cyclically driven, so I am simply attempting to find where we are instead of running around like a chicken with its head cut off.
My suggestion is to follow what we are doing at TBL, both the written and video/audio product, for intellectual honestly, macro analysis (with some predictions) without any trade ideas or commission-based or profit-based motivation, and the opinion of two dudes (Joe Consorti and I) who love and live and breathe and sleep markets.

2023-10-23 15:38:21 UTC

this year, going long Treasuries might have gotten a trader or two fired
next year, there will be asset managers fired for not locking in 5% Treasury yields during 2023
market shifts are much easier seen in hindsight

2023-09-27 22:10:35 UTC

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Thank you!

2023-09-25 19:54:04 UTC

BLOODBATH IN US TREASURIES CONTINUES
dollar squeeze as well, especially in Japan
somebody is getting liquidated, or perhaps this is the blowup of the basis trade that many have been warning about, including the BIS most recently: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2309w.htm

2023-09-21 00:33:15 UTC

there rates go ↗️
and the Treasury deluge hasn’t even really quite started
ever seen the crowding out effect in action?
Q4 shaping up to be a wild one!

2023-09-12 15:45:28 UTC

midterm tonight…don’t show my students https://image.nostr.build/c77460b38c853076545cedf2ce23dc0ac68b9706804184c1581eb866907948cb.jpg

2023-09-03 14:11:28 UTC

good morning
count your blessings!

2023-08-21 12:52:26 UTC

I have the great honor and privilege to begin my 5th year as an adjunct professor @ USC Marshall tomorrow.
I’ll be teaching bitcoin this semester to grad students as it approaches its 15th birthday and 4th halving.
Blessed!

2023-06-15 14:01:15 UTC

Jobless claims are creeping up. Highest in almost two years. Lagged effects of tightening hitting labor market NOW.

2023-05-25 12:28:15 UTC

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We try to have one every weekly, although sometimes we publish before an audio version is ready

2023-05-18 23:08:20 UTC

This year’s Bilderberg topics, banking system top of mind 👀
A.I.
Banking system
China
Energy transition
Europe
Fiscal challenges
India
Industrial policy and trade
NATO
Russia
Transnational threats
Ukraine
U.S. leadership
covered by CNBC now 🤷🏽‍♂️👇🏽
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/18/bilderberg-openai-microsoft-google-join-ai-talks-at-secretive-meeting.html

2023-05-15 14:19:06 UTC

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No, new Treasury issuance isn’t new money itself, it’s new debt. Only the Fed and banks can create new money through QE or loans.

2023-05-15 13:57:48 UTC

While many obsess over the debt ceiling fight, markets ponder what an agreement will bring in terms of liquidity drain, as the Treasury refills its general account at the Fed. Money used to buy T-bills means money not hitting the system elsewhere (until govt spends it). We wait.

2023-04-26 18:36:54 UTC

I am very excited to announce “Layered Money Goes to DC”! In June, I’ll head to the Capitol to meet with members of Congress, give them copies of my book Layered Money, and represent bitcoin as an American ideal. Please consider throwing some sats toward supplying books! https://geyser.fund/project/layeredmoneygoestodc

2023-04-20 15:50:09 UTC

REGIME SHIFT
something we have been watching closely
the chart shows how strongly positive the correlation is now between 10-year Treasury yields and stocks
when yields head lower, it won't be supportive to stocks as it was last year https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_dcae2edd7406221d355e96d5e3a7028a34775f4aa8704f09f07b3dcf10b47345.jpeg

2023-04-19 13:52:57 UTC

Everywhere you look, it’s dedollarization. Headlines and narratives, of course. Because on the ground and within the banking system, it seems that all anybody wants is dollars. How realistic is dedollarization, though? Not very, especially when you look at the hard numbers. In today’s free post, we’ll explore how hopes of a euro-, yuan-, or gold-centric monetary system are intangible. We’ll also explain how bitcoin adoption is the only competitor with promising, albeit early, momentum.
Bitcoin’s adoption trend calls into question any momentum the euro, yuan, or gold might have in challenging the dollar. The dollar remains dominant and entrenched, but the internet’s currency is just beginning to strengthen its running legs. Let’s see before how long it enters a full sprint.
https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/dollar-challengers-euro-yuan-gold

2023-04-08 15:04:36 UTC

The reason I started a substack in the first place, September 2021, was that I was generally sick of relying on twitter to reach readers
Here’s our latest update, all weekly updates are free to everybody! https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/objects-in-the-mirror-are-closer

2023-03-31 07:14:15 UTC

Banks under fire for more than poor hedging and low-interest deposit rates. JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank are both being sued by Epstein accusers.
Just published "Jamie Dimon to be interviewed under oath in Epstein sex trafficking case" for #[0] https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/jamie-dimon-to-be-interviewed-under

2023-03-24 12:29:44 UTC

Treasury curve in full bull steepen mode. This only occurs when front-end yields collapse. This only happens when rate cuts are priced in. This only happens in recession or financial crisis.
It’s here.

2023-03-21 14:10:07 UTC

Layered Money just crossed 49,000 total books sold. I would be lying if I said I wasn't really looking forward to 50k. It has been a long journey. Epic timing as I start to clear the deck for deep work on book #2. Beyond blessed. #bitcoin

2023-03-18 20:43:41 UTC

UBS / Credit Suisse rescue talks are going down to the wire. Doesn’t look like CS is able to open on Monday without a savior.
Wow, even though the slow demise has been apparent to us all for years, still crazy to think about this ship going under.
Next week gon’ be 🔥

2023-03-11 02:56:16 UTC

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You have a gift sir! We are are grateful for your ability to explain the future before most can see it.

2023-03-11 02:54:09 UTC

Bitcoin adoption happens one use case at a time. It seems that, unbelievably, many are learning about fractional reserve banking for the first time today.
Enter: bitcoin.

2023-03-11 02:42:57 UTC

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Thank you!

2023-03-08 23:00:13 UTC

To give you a sense of just how differently the front end and long end of the yield curve are behaving.
2s are 13 bps ABOVE their levels from Thursday 3/2, six days ago.
10s are 10 bps BELOW their 3/2 levels.
Expectations are firm for higher policy rates, followed by lower rates. 2s trade with a 5 handle, yet 10s struggle to stay above 4%. It shows the unwillingness of investors to part with their Treasuries despite the higher discount rates.
This is typical late cycle fixed income market behavior.

2023-03-08 00:09:27 UTC

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Should be out tomorrow!

2023-03-07 22:56:54 UTC

Just on here zapping myself from my Wallet of Satoshi to my ZBD lnurl #[0]
Lightning 🤝 Nostr

2023-03-07 21:53:15 UTC

I just interviewed #[0] for #[1] about Nostr.
Mind. Fully. Blown.
Nobody breaks down technological trends like Jeff. The future is built on this protocol. Do you agree and to what extent?

2023-03-01 19:33:10 UTC

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Switched it

2023-03-01 19:33:05 UTC

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Switched it

2023-03-01 14:27:44 UTC

High spot inflation in Europe should be a net positive for the euro as ECB must address price instability. Dollar will weaken which should ease financial conditions.
Separately, a close eye on ISM Manufacturing coming up this morning to gauge any contraction in the US economy.

2023-03-01 02:15:04 UTC

Thankful for all the zaps I’ve received since joining. Most popular amounts: 21 sats, 69 sats, and 1,000 sats. 😄

2023-02-27 20:57:21 UTC

Lightning Network is the captain now

2023-02-27 13:47:15 UTC

bitcoin is optimism for our species, and I’m just thankful to be a part of it