Serenity (X Mirror)

Mirror of @aleabitoreddit on X (https://x.com/aleabitoreddit). This is a copy - not the original account.

Original bio: I only use X, beware of impersonators. AI/Semi Supply Chain Analyst. ex. RISC-V FDN, AI research scientist; now trading unknown bottlenecks.

Public Key

npub1staljvyq5z8adadxl39qcwq6gaw64ux3ghy5gjtg553nzax44kmqxqn7sy

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsg97lexzq2pr7k7kn0cjsv8qdywhd27rg5tj2yf9522ge3wn26mdspz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dsvqh48w

Publishing to

relay.damus.io

nos.lol

Author Public Key

npub1staljvyq5z8adadxl39qcwq6gaw64ux3ghy5gjtg553nzax44kmqxqn7sy

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Last Notes

2026-08-02 03:42:29 UTC

Trump announced that US has cancelled its attack on Iran.
And that they’ve agreed to the perimeters of a deal to open the Strait and end the nuclear program.
Anyone else feel like they’ve aged a few years in the past 6 months?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HOsA9z4aYAAN7pf.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HOsA9z5akAAK3z_.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2083760320062083406]

2026-07-31 22:52:21 UTC

The media framing and X reactions around Leopold are egregious.
Framing his successful multi-year thesis from $SNDK to $BE as a "collapse" or "failure".
After July's surprising crash, then personally attacking him on top is just pathetic to witness.
It's almost like everyone
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2083324920214536208]

2026-07-31 16:18:47 UTC

$RDDT ER in a nutshell:
Revenue: $804.9M vs. $730.4M (expected).
EPS: $1.25 vs. ~$0.95.
Net income: $252.8M vs. $196.5M
Q3 guidance:
Revenue: $860–870M vs. 829.1M
Adjusted EBITDA: $385-395M vs. $369M
Blowout financials, market always like to explain the drop 22.6% off some new
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HOkV0nBa4AAZLoI.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2083225872207937687]

2026-07-31 10:10:30 UTC

Just a TLDR of this week:
Media: Hyperscalers overbuilt and are selling excess compute.
-> $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META, and $AMZN: Demand for compute far exceeds capacity. Capex go brrr.
Institutions: Emergency rate hike or 3x rate hikes, it's all over.
-> Kevin Warsh: No rate Hike.
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2083133191112843575]

2026-07-31 08:57:11 UTC

Now that I think of it more, $POET optical interposer piece is actually a little more material than I thought with $SIVE.
Originally the wording was "readiness" for EOY 2026.
But $POET upgraded that wording, by stating "production" with Sivers lasers projected EOY 2026.
So
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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HOizCzMbYAA16xf.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2083114743729107236]

2026-07-31 08:25:39 UTC

For $XFAB ER transcript:
Just to recap, my idea on $XFAB foundry growth opportunities stemmed from SiC for 800v and photonixfab/MTP for CPO applicability.
- $XFAB: "We are making progress in co-packaged optics".
- "The transition to 800v... is expected to support demand
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[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2083106805949878330]

2026-07-31 07:14:23 UTC

Few earnings TLDRs with my favorite $AXTI and $AMZN:
Amazon:
- Raised 2026 capex to $220B vs. prior $200B (partly due to higher memory costs, which is bullish on $MU to Samsung)
- Even at $220B, Amazon will not have enough capacity to meet all 2026 demand; Jassy expects the
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2083088870942642391]

2026-07-27 01:12:57 UTC

Nvidia in talks to backstop $250B worth of OpenAI DC financing.
- Softbank’s SB energy develops 10 GW Ohio campus
- OpenAI signs long term lease
- $NVDA guarantees $250B in financing
- OpenAI discussing separate agreement to buy up to $350B in Nvidia chips.
Not quite sure
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HOMlM-Ka0AAp_5c.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2081548360818004299]

2026-07-24 20:22:41 UTC

There you have it, $GOOGL Waymo to explore split with $UBER per FT.
My view last year was that Uber partnering with Waymo was a bad choice… since Uber would just serve as a distribution funnel that Google needed as they scale up.
And that $NBIS Avride, other neutral players,
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HOBPijHbkAAMCnR.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2080750537121874206]

2026-07-23 16:49:57 UTC

I have this feeling that Lisa from $AMD likes AI.
It’s cool getting to meet some of you at the event!
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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HN7VTasbkAAKYXI.jpg
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[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2080334612807758136]

2026-07-23 04:35:37 UTC

Just some notes from $TSLA transcripts:
Elon Musk: "I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever" from Q2 earnings transcripts.
Even from Q1, Elon Stated: "I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product
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[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2080149813065396454]

2026-07-22 23:18:47 UTC

Elon Musk from $TSLA ER transcript:
"I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever.
And I remain convinced of that conclusion."
It's rare to get such a high conviction statement on the humanoid
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HN3iLoba4AAgsPz.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HN3kfl8aEAASchm.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2080070081766408376]

2026-07-22 15:10:40 UTC

$AMD to invest $5B in Anthropic.
Anthropic in turn will sign a 2 GW deal to buy AMD’s latest chips, worth tens of billions of dollars.
Looks like they’re copying the $NVDA playbook with Anthropic last year.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HN10_lba0AA6oI0.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2079947242455335379]

2026-07-21 17:41:05 UTC

Wow, a historic single day recovery.
$SIVEF +30.89%
$IQEF +28.6%
$AEHR +26.53%
$CIFR +17.82%
$NBIS +17.3%
$AAOI +15.6%
$LPK +14.48%
$AXTI +14.12%
$MU +12.54%
$SNDK +12.8%
$SOI +11.1%
$TSEM +10.39%
$LITE +9.25%
$INTC +8.22%
$AMD +8.11%
$MRVL +7.27%
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2079622706572804368]

2026-07-21 08:13:03 UTC

Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%.
Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+.
Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket.
$INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+.
Does the Cramer
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNvL0MvaQAAthkJ.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2079479755481776221]

2026-07-20 21:38:14 UTC

If you’re curious why $NBIS is up after hours.
$NVDA disclosed it owns 9.3% beneficial ownership of Nebius via SEC filings.
Not exactly too new since it dates back to Nvidia’s existing share position of 1.19M shares + $2B prefunded warrant of ~21M shares.
But great for
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNs6hJKa0AAqBaA.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2079319999915925938]

2026-07-19 18:46:43 UTC

There’s nothing quite like the scent of more AI capex on a Sunday.
Probably some ways to go if leading frontier models are out of capacity from too much demand.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNnJq73bkAAUKd6.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078914447180263438]

2026-07-18 04:39:54 UTC

For anyone watching the 25%+ premium in $SKHY versus SK Hynix's Korean shares:
The ADRs and local shares become convertible on July 29.
Should open the door for arbitrage and likely compress the ADR premium. Maybe lifting Korean shares or pressuring US shares.
2.5% currently
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNe9Y99aEAAZg2-.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078338950150959558]

2026-07-18 01:00:56 UTC

Thanks! I’ve always shared personal research and core thoughts for free. Not trying to sell anything or tell others what to do.
And above all, just being transparent about my own returns (win or loss)
Maybe this information democratization upsets some business models…
When
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078283847612186739]

2026-07-18 00:03:02 UTC

The nice thing about X is seeing cultural differences:
I get a bunch of sidelined European accounts up 2% YTD off bank saving interest.
Coming out of hibernation, and saying all along that investing in $AAOI for photonics or Samsung for memory is considered gambling.
And
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078269277115727900]

2026-07-17 16:54:04 UTC

Wow, apparently there’s claims ~3.4% of the adult population in Korea faces liquidation risk?
“As of July 13, over 1.2 million leveraged retail traders' accounts hit margin call lines, with 320,000 to 360,000 accounts force-liquidated by brokers.”
(There were other sources
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNcctXCbcAA5E9i.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078161322769068533]

2026-07-17 16:11:12 UTC

Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash.
My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks.
In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNcS5ija8AEhfg7.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078150537074373117]

2026-07-17 14:52:40 UTC

Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash.
From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC.
Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078130772121399553]

2026-07-17 14:52:04 UTC

Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash.
From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue end of H1 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC.
Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078130620006281636]

2026-07-16 15:57:05 UTC

My guess is we’re close to market bottom on semis from $INTC to $LITE.
A good indicator is if everyone on $RDDT blew up their portfolios to $0.
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[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2077784594959725056]

2026-07-16 14:54:42 UTC

Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others):
Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP):
Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNWnC6zasAAeC8R.png
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNWnH1Ya8AAVTJ4.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2077768896061563339]

2026-07-16 13:54:10 UTC

Today, $MU announced it signed memory LTAs with $QCOM.
Interesting reaction to see Micron proceeded to drop 5.37% right after.
Doesn’t quite feel like there’s anything individually wrong with memory or AI names with all these structural agreements signed?
More like the tail
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNWp14pbsAAmMza.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNWp14taoAA94Hi.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2077753660592033828]

2026-07-16 13:06:22 UTC

I hope there's someone at X can fix this subscription bug.
Many people are reporting that subscriptions don't renew anymore.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNWe_vEbMAAnCp3.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2077741631135191234]

2026-07-15 03:08:23 UTC

Well, looks like SLC NAND is forcasted to rise up 120-170% for H2 2026 per Trendforce.
There's $MU (21%), Kioxia (20%) as largest share, but clearer beneficiaries appears to be:
1. Winbond (2344): ~15% of the SLC NAND market
2. Macronix (2337): ~11% market share
3. SkyHigh
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNPLfNva4AAstTR.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNPMGNHaMAAoVzH.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2077228758491386121]

2026-07-15 01:48:14 UTC

$AEHR back up +36.4% today off earnings!
2027 guide: $130-$150m (160-200% growth) from 2026 revenue. Sees opportunity to guide higher (assumes no memory revenue or little to none from newly benchmarked AI customer).
Q4 bookings: $60.7M, effective backlog is $100.6M.
- Lead AI
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNO6MxwacAAy0Tv.jpg
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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNO6MyIa0AAdVmc.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2077208587005542464]

2026-07-14 14:57:21 UTC

$NBIS signs $1B+ compute agreement with Reflection AI, for GB300 access through 2029.
Reflection also signed a multi-billion dollar agreement with $SPCX earlier.
Interesting to say the least, seeing Nebius drop -5% off the news today.
Also... counterparty to get this done
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNMlOQubcAApEhI.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNMlOP2awAA6Tq7.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2077044786402660829]

2026-07-14 14:35:50 UTC

Two different capacity expansion announcements today across $TSEM and $AAOI.
Tower Semi, supported by the Japanese government, announced expansion of its 300mm Silicon Photonics (SiPho), Silicon Germanium (SiGe), and advanced packaging capabilities.
Targeting $1.2B net profit,
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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNMfZLEa4AA5VW8.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2077039373711970804]

2026-07-14 01:51:24 UTC

So Jensen himself went out to do damage control with $NVDA delays reports apparently:
1. Jensen Huang said no delays:
- 800V and rack-to-rack optical interconnects is progressing fully in line with the original plan with no material delay.
- Debunked the rumor that the
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[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2076846994614792663]

2026-07-13 23:17:46 UTC

TLDR of Innolight investor relations takeaways:
1. "Overall, 1.6T market demand has not contracted; instead, 800G demand has increased significantly compared with previous expectations"
Prob most important takeaway as a whole was 800G demand revision (also longer tail demand).
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2076808331453415674]

2026-07-13 19:20:46 UTC

Morgan Stanley note on CPO today. Key participants include:
- $SIVE, $COHR, and $LITE in laser supply
- Broadcom and Nvidia in switch platforms
- Lightmatter, Ayar Labs, Marvell/Celestial, and POET in optical engines and photonics,
- $TSM, $GFS, and $TSEM in silicon photonics
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNIX67ba0AAXstD.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HNIX67abgAAk2Qp.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2076748688559587338]

2026-07-13 00:45:13 UTC

Just a semi recap TLDR:
- $GLW glass bridge per Morgan Stanley has potential, but hard to displace FAU (like FOCI) in short term
- $SPCX Starlink Gen 3 is scaling to 100,000 units (10x prev gen) creating possible capacity constraints for suppliers of switches to CCL.
- PCB
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2076467953995071881]

2026-07-12 11:25:10 UTC

Apparently there’s a new popular trend to bearpost trillion dollar companies.
Like $NVDA or $TSM.
By finding isolating technical details, then blowing it out of proportions by claiming their whole program is delayed.
-> if the company doesn’t respond, stock prices/sentiment
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2076266613675069628]

2026-07-11 19:47:54 UTC

Apparently, Korean Beauty was where all the alpha is.
APR (278470.KS) is up 529% over the past 2Y, wildly outperforming both $NVDA and $INTC.
Every female I know talks about their "Medicube" stick, then buying products... where you put a whole salmon's family tree on your face
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HM-HoOyagAA04I8.jpg
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[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2076030743655109063]

2026-07-11 10:45:46 UTC

Contrarian take, but Sam Altman / OpenAI is doing something right if he's pissing off every Mag7 like $AAPL.
By building their own ecosystem instead of being sucked into another.
It's been awhile since $GOOGL, Apple, Microsoft, and others had some genuine disruptors.
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075894311741440041]

2026-07-10 18:17:16 UTC

Regarding $AMZN RNG + OpenAI’s MRC and VCSELs.
In what appears to be an indirect response on B. Riley's $AAOI sell report regarding optimizations that "flattens networks and cuts transceiver TAM 40-50%".
Rosenblatt TLDR: They've already modeled for this, even though each XPU
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[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075645547978084371]

2026-07-10 17:31:39 UTC

Rosenblatt on recent optical sector weakness from $AAOI to $LITE:
"Stocks in the Optical sector have traded poorly for the last 1-2 months" due to CPO delay reports and China capacity scares.
"We think short sellers... do not actually strongly believe in the thesis."
Multiple
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[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075634064518955297]

2026-07-10 16:01:02 UTC

Sk Hynix is now trading under $SKHYV!
It's now up an insane 16%.
I wonder how Sk Hynix over in Korea is going to react on Monday.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HM4MNSFbYAES8t1.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075611260771852590]

2026-07-10 14:38:01 UTC

Why do I have this weird feeling the main reason retail is excited SK Hynix NASDAQ listing.
Is because they can do degen option calls instead of individual stock purchases.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HM35pHvbQAAP1XZ.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075590371531493729]

2026-07-10 12:27:45 UTC

Mitsubishi Motors joins robotics race to deploy humanoid workers by 2027.
Pairing with Highlanders, a Japanese robotics company.
- Agility $CCXI x Foxconn, Toyota
- Apptronik x $JBL, Mercedes
- Highlanders x Mitsubishi
- Figure × BMW
- Boston Dynamics x Hyundai (subsidiaries)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HM3Wq4laAAIq15z.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075557588159058076]

2026-07-10 11:17:10 UTC

The "Mythical Golden Egg Dragon Candle" predicted the $SIVE rally today.
If you look at the Golden Egg hatching indicator I drew, you can tell it predicts Sivers CEO buying on the open market a day later.
Do you guys think it's time I should sell courses on TA?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HM3MdqGbwAA1N21.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HM3MdrPbsAAZZeg.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075539824589860866]

2026-07-10 08:23:29 UTC

Yep, it’s interesting to witness retail capitulation.
After we got Bloomberg Meta compute article cleared up by their internal memo.
And the 2 reports on delays were denied by Nvidia.
Both of which caused the selloff in the first place...
So Photonics / Nvidia’s roadmap
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075496116481884524]

2026-07-09 19:35:56 UTC

"China is shipping ~90% of the world's humanoid robots. We cannot keep taking them lightly."
Elon's comment: "For now"
Meanwhile, 1X today posts a video of the most advanced humanoid hand.
Looks like the inflection point for American humanoid programs is here?
Both
https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/2075302057356234752/vid/avc1/1280x960/L73Aw27-yvVWGr_D.mp4?tag=28
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075302956581449892]

2026-07-09 18:44:07 UTC

Three new $SIVE insider purchases today.
Most notably: $SIVEF CEO Vikram bought 1,000,000 SEK worth of shares on the open market today.
This is following the massive drop on Sivers stock following 2 misleading CPO delay reports, Meta Compute headlines, and another insider
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075289915697553697]

2026-07-08 22:08:52 UTC

Wow, looks like Elon + xAI at $SPCX managed to build an Anthropic Opus-level LLM with Grok 4.5.
That’s much more cost efficient as well…
Kinda emulating what Chinese vendors have been doing to compete on pricing + adoption. (Which is an ideal thing given Chinese model growth
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMvOc30aYAARSbY.jpg
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[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074979055410266452]

2026-07-08 21:16:03 UTC

$META to build a new $10B DC in Canada to expand AI capacity.
So much for the media framing of “Meta Compute”as overbuilding and cutting capex.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMvCXHqaEAAxPzv.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074965761345642660]

2026-07-08 20:18:34 UTC

Let’s put it this way:
Retail thinks a 30-60% drop is a “falling knife” where bagholders will never recover.
And they end up panic selling after seeing swiggly line TAs and people comparing valuable chokepoints to memes.
I see it as long term ownership over:
- the next
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074951295027568736]

2026-07-08 12:49:57 UTC

Blue Origin reportedly raising $10B at a $130B valuation per NYT.
Seems pretty positive for $RKLB, $ASTS, and other space names in terms of relative valuation anchoring.
If SpaceX and Blue Origin is able to set such high valuations.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMtNvCIaIAATsrG.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074838397341065516]

2026-07-08 10:14:45 UTC

Trump: “Spain is a terrible partner in NATO.
They don't participate. They don't pay.
Cut off all trade with Spain”
Tbh no clue what’s going on anymore…
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMsrADEboAAXTJD.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074799339680202869]

2026-07-08 08:42:26 UTC

Trump: Memorandum of Understanding with Iran “is over”
“It’s a waste of time dealing with them,” Trump said at the NATO summit.
Always an exciting time with markets.
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[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074776109074583565]

2026-07-07 19:49:55 UTC

Hesai Technology, a Chinese lidar maker faces US national scrutiny over its expanded partnership with $NVDA and lidar sensors.
For $OUST, $AEVA, and Western lidar bros, this is generally positive if competitors get regulated out.
Since there were warnings that:
Sensors could
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMpkRPUbUAAbdEx.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074581698604593367]

2026-07-07 18:56:07 UTC

Just Bloomberg and $META doing damage control after crashing the market with Meta Compute framing:
Spokesperson: "Meta is still hungry for even more computing power.
It is still moving forward with plans for expensive new data centers and recently inked major computing deals
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMpXeHybgAAN8N3.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074568161299771394]

2026-07-07 16:38:39 UTC

This is the average visual TA bro, takes a 50% 50% coinflip:
If it goes the other way, they say "ABC Pattern Invalidated", should have known...
If they get the coinflip right, they promote their $40/month chart.
-> People drawing swiggly lines over KOSPI mean nothing where
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMo4Ep2boAA5Tda.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074533565505876218]

2026-07-07 14:03:29 UTC

Just putting it out there:
If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others...
Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far.
Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals.
Indiscriminate selloffs from
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074494514061017508]

2026-07-07 12:13:51 UTC

Raymond James initiated coverage of $SPCX with “Strong Buy”.
Giving it a $800 PT, valuing SpaceX at a ~$10T valuation.
No words. Jokes about “institutional” notes for retail write themselves.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMn8RlnbMAA6q_l.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074466925263061100]

2026-07-07 08:54:13 UTC

Be Samsung at $1.24T:
> market: we don’t think you can keep hiking memory prices
> proceeds to hikes dram by 20%
> releases earnings
> most profitable company in the world beating $NVDA and $AAPL
> operating profits growing 1803% Y/Y
market: sells off Samsung -7%
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074416685843612031]

2026-07-07 08:10:39 UTC

One of the dumbest thematic selloffs I’ve seen to to date off:
- $META compute news that’s not new
- CPO delay report 1, that got refuted by $NVDA
- CPO delay report 2, that got refuted by $NVDA
High confidence, institutions will end up going long on the same names they’re
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMnFAjjaIAA5UWL.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMnFAjjbUAAk4hM.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074405723816304743]

2026-07-06 21:14:10 UTC

Was a sad few months for $RDDT. But glad it's finally back above $200.
Reddit was doing:
- $663M revenue w/ 91.5% gross margins
- $204M GAAP net income
- 45%+ fwd Y/Y growth after 69%+ growth.
- Net profit is ~30.7% of revenue
Felt very weird to see a profitable company get
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMkrWFjbUAA2QsW.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074240512593481955]

2026-07-06 19:31:28 UTC

It’s interesting to witness psychology around valuation anchoring + scarcity.
Retail, for example, are buying Figure, last valued at ~$39B through CEFs…
At $158B, since it’s private, round 4x valuations.
Then Agility Robotics $CCXI, which has broader commercialization.
Is
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074214669808717906]

2026-07-06 16:34:45 UTC

$NVDA refuting recent Kyber delay claims:
“Our roadmap is intact”.
lol, damage has already been done with stocks in many markets (esp. in Taiwan/Japan/Soutj Korea) crashing after the “report”
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMjuzKxaMAAcC0u.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074170197486039524]

2026-07-06 14:48:33 UTC

I’d like to give a special thank you to Bloomberg’s piece on $META compute.
As well as the 2 back to back bear posts on CPO delays.
But I believe thematically photonics, memory, energy, and physical AI will outperform in the long run.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMjWfabbgAE_u8O.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074143469015281953]

2026-07-06 12:35:33 UTC

Wow, $WULF signs a $19B DC lease with Anthropic today.
Probably a very positive tailwind for the Neocloud/Colo sector.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMi4DFFb0AEdAIz.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074109998544846954]

2026-07-06 12:03:54 UTC

Retail: buys memory, optical, upstream semi names.
Media: “retail bubble drives AI meme stock bubble higher”.
Institutions that do the exact same thing, with the exact same names:
Media: “Institutions make record profits by betting on what goes inside AI Server Racks”.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMiwzqOboAAmOgs.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074102035675570457]

2026-07-06 10:19:00 UTC

I find it hard for any bears to defend against this humanoid bull case.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMiYy4RaYAA58bV.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMiYy4RaQAAwNGs.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074075634851340779]

2026-07-06 09:29:29 UTC

Kelper upgrades $XFAB to "Buy" citing:
- Melexis demand strengthening “week-after-week, day-after-day” (their lead customer).
- AI giving XFAB a structural growth leg with SiC, GaN, and photonics offsetting auto cyclicality.
- Scarce Western speciality foundries like $SILEX
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMiMDiPaUAAFi2Y.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074063175293809150]

2026-07-06 08:25:00 UTC

I personally think $SIVE can be the next $LITE.
In the past few months alone, we've seen:
1. Partnerships with O-Net pushing ELS into mass production
2. $JBL 1.6T LRO mass production signals with "relatively dramatic moats" for pluggables using Sivers.
3. $GFS SCALE reference
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074046947434860971]

2026-07-06 05:48:43 UTC

Nomura’s report cites $AXTI and $IQE as the leading players.
Then regarding ASP updates:
- 2in InP substrate price hike 42-76%
- 3in InP substrates price hike 78%
- 2in EML Epiwafer price hike 50-75%
- 3in CW Epiwafer price hike ~40%+
- Prices lower domestically in China as
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMha7xZbAAAbx4J.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMha7xeakAEhUAk.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074007618046345249]

2026-07-05 20:32:55 UTC

Came across an interesting report from SVRC Research called "State of Robotics 2026", published in April.
Which listed:
1. Figure AI
2. Agility Robotics $CCXI
3. Apptronik
4. $TSLA
5. Boston Dynamics
6. Physical Intelligence
7. 1X Technologies
8. $AMZN Robotics
9.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMfUKWmbgAA1z-j.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMfUKwPboAAARvn.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMfVAZ_a0AA7NwP.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMfZJUgacAAJmfC.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2073867745243127973]

2026-07-05 09:45:22 UTC

Leaked Anthropic docs show plans to secure 1.4GW capacity from Australia, amounting to ~$21.6B.
Recently $IREN, $SHAZ, and other Neoclouds have been building sovereign DCs in Australia.
Guess like a lot of things are stating to make more sense connection wise?
(disclosure: no
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMdHgeqbAAARA1T.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMdHgeqbEAAzBF-.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2073704784398528599]

2026-07-04 21:44:39 UTC

Nikkei - $JD E-Commerce Giant CEO warns "Robots Will Replace 700,000 Delivery Workers".
Per FT's earlier piece last month: The 700,000 delivery personnel working for the firm will be replaced by robots, highlighting how rapid automation has become a new threat to China's
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMagGxfaUAAfgHo.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMagnY7bwAAR6au.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2073523410643366242]

2026-07-04 19:19:28 UTC

an apple a day keeps the bottleneck away
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2073486870315745406]

2026-07-04 18:02:28 UTC

UDN Money report "殺翻光通訊後 SemiAnalysis 惹議業界揭其劣跡許多公司慘遭魔手":
- SemiAnalysis, released a report in June, questioning the timing of the launch of the CPO on the grounds of low yield and delay, which caused the photonics sector to collapse.
- The agency then
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMZtiGFbEAEOPKi.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMZu82IbsAA50r5.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2073467493998555192]

2026-07-03 14:00:07 UTC

Just some public market read through from Chinese private VC markets:
Institutions are pouring funds into physical AI and world models.
1. Large models / LLMs: ~$23.56B
2. AI infrastructure + technical layer: ~$15.74B
3. Embodied intelligence / physical AI: ~$13.36B
4. AIGC
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMTue3zbcAAkdx5.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMTue33awAA0ZW-.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2073044119287722024]

2026-07-03 06:53:07 UTC

Be SemiAnalysis:
- Post a scathing piece on CPO delays + optical company valuations, causing a crash.
Which $NVDA, analyst desks, and major optical companies refuted
- Launch an institutional photonics ETF after optical names dropped 40-60%.
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072936659369517341]

2026-07-03 05:58:44 UTC

SemiAnalysis on $META “overcapacity” and market reactions with $NBIS and others:
“We believe Meta’s datacenter and compute will accelerate”.
“Capex in 2027 will be shockingly high”.
Recent global crash, especially in the photonics sector was stupid… Off misleading narratives
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMSAdMKb0AA6ggb.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072922974345445511]

2026-07-03 05:22:33 UTC

LeaderDrive (688017) is now at all time highs after hitting a 20% limit up today.
Looks like robotics sector excitement is palpable…
Largely driven by US and China’s frontier humanoid companies with $CCXI / Agility Robotics
As well as Unitree (STAR listing approved today)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMR4LChaEAAX7rb.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072913865458004014]

2026-07-03 04:54:11 UTC

Lot of misinformation recently about $META.
Recently major journals have been stating
“AI AGENT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST FOUR MONTHS HASN'T 'ACCELERATED IN THE WAY WE EXPECTED”
To push some narrative about Meta dropping out of the race or lowered capex:
As Wang clarified:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMRxrlqbgAAtGY5.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072906728853881251]

2026-07-03 04:38:55 UTC

$META: upcoming AI model “Watermelon” has caught up to OpenAI’s GPT 5.5.
Wang noted it uses an "order of magnitude" more compute than its predecessor “Avocado”.
Who said they were out of the AI race again?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMRuL6kboAAXiCw.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMRuL5bbwAApzJ9.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072902886712094919]

2026-07-02 21:30:57 UTC

$AXTI signs 3-year wafer deal with $COHR.
"Coherent will make a prepayment of $22,288,500 to AXT-Tongmei in exchange for a committed supply capacity."
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMQMOjQacAAQVT5.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072795186263187831]

2026-07-02 20:37:26 UTC

Does anyone else have this annoying seed planted in their mind too?
Whenever I see $MRVL drop, I get reminded of Jensen’s comment “The next $1T company”.
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072781715916169660]

2026-07-02 19:33:06 UTC

Just this hour:
BlueCrest Capital Management and its Billionaire Michael Platt crossed the threshold and disclosed a 5.6% stake in $CCXI.
I knew Agility Robotics would be popular…
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMPxNe9awAAzeVh.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMPxNfBaMAAgv56.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072765527764971642]

2026-07-02 17:57:47 UTC

Agility Robotics is literally the #1 humanoid player in the US in terms of commercialization today imo.
Personal Rankings:
1. Agility Robotics via $CCXI
2. $TSLA Optimus ($1T+ company)
3. Figure at $39B from 2025, likely higher now.
With Tesla likely taking the lead a year
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072741541404406008]

2026-07-02 10:34:42 UTC

I just realized Boston Dynamics CEO shared the same sentiment:
“Robotics is next. America’s next 250 years will be built by robots”.
However, currently China accounts for 54%+ of all global robotics deployments.
- calls for Internet scaleable database of physical world (kinda
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMN2BxGb0AA3m1L.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMN2BxIb0AA_jsY.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMN2BxLaYAA3hkI.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072630036600103340]

2026-07-02 09:16:50 UTC

$IREN founders award themselves $1.14B+ of stock based compensation.
Vesting over 4 years timeframe. This is amid their active $6,000,000,000 ATM.
I’m not going to say anything but I think it speaks for itself.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMNkKbaakAA-_30.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072610437817078056]

2026-07-02 06:53:53 UTC

Wells Fargo: $META intent to sell excess compute is a positive signal around underlying demand and unit economics of AI.
“Despite this shift, we don’t expect a pullback in Meta’s capex or that overall compute needs are lower”
Regarding Neoclouds: WF thinks it validated the
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMNDfW5aoAAMa3G.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMNDfW-bIAA0cMs.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072574465763111166]

2026-07-01 13:42:30 UTC

There’s a lot of disinformation going around about $META “cutting capex” because they “overbuilt”.
This is an “if” they have excess capacity.
And it looks like the opposite right now:
Hyperscalers like $GOOGL are so compute constrained that they had to cut allocations to Meta
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072314906729455876]

2026-07-01 13:14:42 UTC

Basically pre-market right now with the Neoclouds like $NBIS in simpler terms.
Costco: sells $5 chickens.
Walmart: mass buys those rotisserie chickens and sells excess as “Walmart Chickens”.
Stock Market: sells off Costco.
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072307910223532245]

2026-07-01 12:49:56 UTC

Finally, $META to build a Cloud Business to sell excess AI compute per Bloomberg.
Thought Meta should go up against GCP, Azure, and AWS eventually to increase revenue streams.
Meta up 6.65% premarket.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMJLY9xawAABQkj.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072301677211009426]

2026-07-01 08:54:04 UTC

This market feels like an ADHD goldfish with a 5 second attention span, trading popular themes.
It's like markets only care about physical AI and energy right now?
And sold off memory and photonics that are bottlenecked past 2028?
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072242322688057579]

2026-07-01 07:22:39 UTC

$SIVE: "Intent to complete the [NASDAQ] listing process over the next few quarters"
This statement was largely missed by many screeners.
Very material improvement from evaluation, to formal confirmation of timelines.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMIAe65aYAEpRyA.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072219315760488615]

2026-07-01 04:40:02 UTC

Just some of the more interesting news I came across recently:
1. MS: Revised China humanoid shipments to reach 50,000 in 2026 from 14,000u and 28,000u earlier this year.
2. MS: Probe cards and test sockets likely to be priced hike (precious metal hikes + severe shortage of
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072178393878290789]

2026-07-01 03:34:02 UTC

I told you making the robots look hot might be a bottleneck:
Today, UBTech has now announced its first full-size hyper realistic humanoid robot girlfriend.
For adults only to purchase for only ~$145,717.90.
-"The U1 series emphasizes attractive appearance and is only available
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMHMIlubcAAC55H.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMHMInLaIAANHz-.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072161782005936487]

2026-07-01 02:56:04 UTC

Congrats to $SIVE, they have now raised an upside round of 700m SEK from institutional investors.
The round was “Multiple Times Oversubscribed” and slightly upsided.
Validating immense institutional demand around current market prices.
This raise was specifically for
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMHDdy_acAAYl8h.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072152226169331776]

2026-06-30 16:34:58 UTC

Yep! Agility Robotics is currently my favorite humanoid/robotics position.
They're set to be listed on NASDAQ via $CCXI as early as September (per Digitimes).
Just for informational purposes: Their V4 humanoid robot is already operating in sites like Amazon. And have V5 slated
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HME0psNaUAEjAS2.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HME0psOaUAMPef7.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HME0psPaUAAXdbQ.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2071995924172394695]

2026-06-30 15:20:39 UTC

I wonder if humanoids is going to spark a new bottleneck/industry for robot cosmetics.
Like a skin bottleneck. Or Aespa KPOP robot makeover as a service.
So if $TSLA Optimus makes tens of millions of humanoids:
Who’s going to make them all look hot?
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2071977219002613768]

2026-06-30 14:17:18 UTC

There was a pretty funny anecdotal complaint from the Machine Learning $RDDT subreddit.
On $CBRS + OpenAI:
- Needs 1-2K tokens/sec so tries to use Cerebras.
- Claims OpenAI reserved all capacity, making waitlist infinite for everyone else not a hyperscaler.
- Stated
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HMEVyqRWsAAdtrA.jpg
[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2071961279380791729]